Food-web assembly and collapse: mathematical models and implications for conservation

Landscape diversity promotes stable food-web architectures in large rivers

Uncovering relationships between landscape diversity and species interactions is crucial for predicting how ongoing land-use change and homogenization will impact the stability and persistence of communities. However, such connections have rarely been quantified in nature. We coupled high-resolution river sonar imaging with annualized energetic food webs to quantify relationships among habitat diversity, energy flux, and trophic interaction strengths in large-river food-web modules that support the endangered Pallid Sturgeon. Our results demonstrate a clear relationship between habitat diversity and species interaction strengths, with more diverse foraging landscapes containing higher production of prey and a greater proportion of weak and potentially stabilizing interactions. Additionally, rare patches of large and relatively stable river sediments intensified these effects and further reduced interaction strengths by increasing prey diversity. Our findings highlight the importance of landscape characteristics in promoting stabilizing food-web architectures and provide direct relevance for future management of imperilled species in a simplified and rapidly changing world.

The Potential for Alternative Stable States in Food Webs Depends on Feedback Mechanism and Trait Diversity

AbstractAlternative stable ecosystem states are possible under the same environmental conditions in models of two or three interacting species and an array of feedback loops. However, multispecies food webs might weaken the feedbacks loops that can create alternative stable states. To test how this potential depends on food web properties, we develop a many-species model where consumer Allee effects emerge from consumer-resource interactions. We evaluate the interactive effects of food web connectance, interspecific trait diversity, and two classes of feedbacks: specialized feedbacks, where consumption of individual resources declines at high resource abundance (e.g., from schooling or reaching size refugia), and aggregate feedbacks, where overall resource abundance reduces consumer recruitment (e.g., from resources enhancing competition or mortality experienced by recruits). We find that aggregate feedbacks maintain, and specialized feedbacks reduce, the potential for alternative states. Interspecific trait diversity decreases the prevalence of alternative stable states more for specialized than for aggregate feedbacks. Increasing food web connectance increases the potential for alternative stable states for aggregated feedbacks but decreases it for specialized feedbacks, where losing vulnerable consumers can cascade into food web collapses. Altogether, multispecies food webs can limit the set of processes that create alternative stable states and impede consumer recovery from disturbance.

Impact of cyber-invasive species on a large ecological network

As impacts of introduced species cascade through trophic levels, they can cause indirect and counter-intuitive effects. To investigate the impact of invasive species at the network scale, we use a generalized food web model, capable of propagating changes through networks with a series of ecologically realistic criteria. Using data from a small British offshore island, we quantify the impacts of four virtual invasive species (an insectivore, a herbivore, a carnivore and an omnivore whose diet is based on a rat) and explore which clusters of species react in similar ways. We find that the predictions for the impacts of invasive species are ecologically plausible, even in large networks. Species in the same taxonomic group are similarly impacted by a virtual invasive species. However, interesting differences within a given taxonomic group can occur. The results suggest that some native species may be at risk from a wider range of invasives than previously believed. The implications of these results for ecologists and land managers are discussed.

Ecological and evolutionary dynamics of interconnectedness and modularity

In this contribution, we develop a theoretical framework for linking microprocesses (i.e., population dynamics and evolution through natural selection) with macrophenomena (such as interconnectedness and modularity within an ecological system). This is achieved by developing a measure of interconnectedness for population distributions defined on a trait space (generalizing the notion of modularity on graphs), in combination with an evolution equation for the population distribution. With this contribution, we provide a platform for understanding under what environmental, ecological, and evolutionary conditions ecosystems evolve toward being more or less modular. A major contribution of this work is that we are able to decompose the overall driver of changes at the macro level (such as interconnectedness) into three components: (i) ecologically driven change, (ii) evolutionarily driven change, and (iii) environmentally driven change.

Adapting environmental management to uncertain but inevitable change

Implementation of adaptation actions to protect biodiversity is limited by uncertainty about the future. One reason for this is the fear of making the wrong decisions caused by the myriad future scenarios presented to decision-makers. We propose an adaptive management (AM) method for optimally managing a population under uncertain and changing habitat conditions. Our approach incorporates multiple future scenarios and continually learns the best management strategy from observations, even as conditions change. We demonstrate the performance of our AM approach by applying it to the spatial management of migratory shorebird habitats on the East Asian-Australasian flyway, predicted to be severely impacted by future sea-level rise. By accounting for non-stationary dynamics, our solution protects 25,000 more birds per year than the current best stationary approach. Our approach can be applied to many ecological systems that require efficient adaptation strategies for an uncertain future.

Using food-web theory to conserve ecosystems

Food-web theory can be a powerful guide to the management of complex ecosystems. However, we show that indices of species importance common in food-web and network theory can be a poor guide to ecosystem management, resulting in significantly more extinctions than necessary. We use Bayesian Networks and Constrained Combinatorial Optimization to find optimal management strategies for a wide range of real and hypothetical food webs. This Artificial Intelligence approach provides the ability to test the performance of any index for prioritizing species management in a network. While no single network theory index provides an appropriate guide to management for all food webs, a modified version of the Google PageRank algorithm reliably minimizes the chance and severity of negative outcomes. Our analysis shows that by prioritizing ecosystem management based on the network-wide impact of species protection rather than species loss, we can substantially improve conservation outcomes.

The influence of species conservation on food webs is less well understood than the effects of species loss. Here, the authors test several indices against optimal food web management and find no current metrics are reliably effective at identifying species conservation priorities.

The role of biotic forces in driving macroevolution: beyond the Red Queen

A multitude of hypotheses claim that abiotic factors are the main drivers of macroevolutionary change. By contrast, Van Valen's Red Queen hypothesis is often put forward as the sole representative of the view that biotic forcing is the main evolutionary driver. This imbalance of hypotheses does not reflect our current knowledge: theoretical work demonstrates the plausibility of biotically driven long-term evolution, whereas empirical work suggests a central role for biotic forcing in macroevolution. We call for a more pluralistic view of how biotic forces may drive long-term evolution that is compatible with both phenotypic stasis in the fossil record and with non-constant extinction rates. Promising avenues of research include contrasting predictions from relevant theories within ecology and macroevolution, as well as embracing both abiotic and biotic proxies while modelling long-term evolutionary data. By fitting models describing hypotheses of biotically driven macroevolution to data, we could dissect their predictions and transcend beyond pattern description, possibly narrowing the divide between our current understanding of micro- and macroevolution.

Determining plant-leaf miner-parasitoid interactions: a DNA barcoding approach

A major challenge in network ecology is to describe the full-range of species interactions in a community to create highly-resolved food-webs. We developed a molecular approach based on DNA full barcoding and mini-barcoding to describe difficult to observe plant – leaf miner – parasitoid interactions, consisting of animals commonly regarded as agricultural pests and their natural enemies. We tested the ability of universal primers to amplify the remaining DNA inside leaf miner mines after the emergence of the insect. We compared the results of a) morphological identification of adult specimens; b) identification based on the shape of the mines; c) the COI Mini-barcode (130 bp) and d) the COI full barcode (658 bp) fragments to accurately identify the leaf-miner species. We used the molecular approach to build and analyse a tri-partite ecological network of plant – leaf miner – parasitoid interactions. We were able to detect the DNA of leaf-mining insects within their feeding mines on a range of host plants using mini-barcoding primers: 6% for the leaves collected empty and 33% success after we observed the emergence of the leaf miner. We suggest that the low amplification success of leaf mines collected empty was mainly due to the time since the adult emerged and discuss methodological improvements. Nevertheless our approach provided new species-interaction data for the ecological network. We found that the 130 bp fragment is variable enough to identify all the species included in this study. Both COI fragments reveal that some leaf miner species could be composed of cryptic species. The network built using the molecular approach was more accurate in describing tri-partite interactions compared with traditional approaches based on morphological criteria.

Inherent directionality explains the lack of feedback loops in empirical networks

We explore the hypothesis that the relative abundance of feedback loops in many empirical complex networks is severely reduced owing to the presence of an inherent global directionality. Aimed at quantifying this idea, we propose a simple probabilistic model in which a free parameter γ controls the degree of inherent directionality. Upon strengthening such directionality, the model predicts a drastic reduction in the fraction of loops which are also feedback loops. To test this prediction, we extensively enumerated loops and feedback loops in many empirical biological, ecological and socio-technological directed networks. We show that, in almost all cases, empirical networks have a much smaller fraction of feedback loops than network randomizations. Quite remarkably, this empirical finding is quantitatively reproduced, for all loop lengths, by our model by fitting its only parameter γ. Moreover, the fitted value of γ correlates quite well with another direct measurement of network directionality, performed by means of a novel algorithm. We conclude that the existence of an inherent network directionality provides a parsimonious quantitative explanation for the observed lack of feedback loops in empirical networks.

Molecular analysis reveals high compartmentalization in aphid-primary parasitoid networks and low parasitoid sharing between crop and noncrop habitats

The ecosystem service of insect pest regulation by natural enemies, such as primary parasitoids, may be enhanced by the presence of uncultivated, semi-natural habitats within agro-ecosystems, although quantifying such host-parasitoid interactions is difficult. Here, we use rRNA 16S gene sequencing to assess both the level of parasitism by Aphidiinae primary parasitoids and parasitoid identity on a large sample of aphids collected in cultivated and uncultivated agricultural habitats in Western France. We used these data to construct ecological networks to assess the level of compartmentalization between aphid and parasitoid food webs of cultivated and uncultivated habitats. We evaluated the extent to which uncultivated margins provided a resource for parasitoids shared between pest and nonpest aphids. We compared the observed quantitative ecological network described by our molecular approach to an empirical qualitative network based on aphid-parasitoid interactions from traditional rearing data found in the literature. We found that the molecular network was highly compartmentalized and that parasitoid sharing is relatively rare between aphids, especially between crop and noncrop compartments. Moreover, the few cases of putative shared generalist parasitoids were questionable and could be due to the lack of discrimination of cryptic species or from intraspecific host specialization. Our results suggest that apparent competition mediated by Aphidiinae parasitoids is probably rare in agricultural areas and that the contribution of field margins as a source of these biocontrol agents is much more limited than expected. Further large-scale (spatial and temporal) studies on other crops and noncrop habitats are needed to confirm this.

The dynamics of assembling food webs

Community assembly is central to ecology, yet ecologists have amassed little quantitative information about how food webs assemble. Theory holds that colonisation rate is a primary driver of community assembly. We present new data from a mesocosm experiment to test the hypothesis that colonisation rate also determines the assembly dynamics of food webs. By manipulating colonisation rate and measuring webs through time, we show how colonisation rate governs structural changes during assembly. Webs experiencing different colonisation rates had stable topologies despite significant species turnover, suggesting that some features of network architecture emerge early and change little through assembly. But webs experiencing low colonisation rates showed less variation in the magnitudes of trophic fluxes, and were less likely to develop coupled fast and slow resource channels--a common feature of published webs. Our results reveal that food web structure develops according to repeatable trajectories that are strongly influenced by colonisation rate.

Networks and webs in ecosystems and financial systems

This paper briefly outlines our growing understanding of the relationships between the network structure of ecological networks--both in mathematical models and in the real world--and their consequent dynamical properties. These are interesting, inter alia, because they affect the system's ability to withstand disturbance, whether natural or human-created. The paper also sketches recent interest in the potential relevance of this work to 'systemic risk' and regulatory measures in banking systems, emphasizing the similarities and differences. I conclude with some cautions against drawing excessively general conclusions from any such models.

Coextinction and Persistence of Dependent Species in a Changing World

The extinction of a single species is rarely an isolated event. Instead, dependent parasites, commensals, and mutualist partners (affiliates) face the risk of coextinction as their hosts or partners decline and fail. Species interactions in ecological networks can transmit the effects of primary extinctions within and between trophic levels, causing secondary extinctions and extinction cascades. Documenting coextinctions is complicated by ignorance of host specificity, limitations of historical collections, incomplete systematics of affiliate taxa, and lack of experimental studies. Host shifts may reduce the rate of coextinctions, but they are poorly understood. In the absence of better empirical records of coextinctions, statistical models estimate the rates of past and future coextinctions, and based on primary extinctions and interactions among species, network models explore extinction cascades. Models predict and historical evidence reveals that the threat of coextinction is influenced by both host and affiliate traits and is exacerbated by other threats, including habitat loss, climate change, and invasive species.

The role of temperature and dispersal in moss-microarthropod community assembly after a catastrophic event

There is a clear crisis in the maintenance of biodiversity. It has been generated by a multitude of factors, notably habitat loss, now compounded by the effects of climate change. Predicted changes in climate include increased severity and frequency of extreme climatic events. To manage landscapes, an understanding of the processes that allow recovery from these extreme events is required. Understanding these landscape-scale processes of community assembly and disassembly is hindered by the large scales at which they operate. Model systems provide a means of studying landscape scale processes at tractable scales. Here, we assess the combined effects of temperature and habitat-patch isolation on assembly of naturally diverse moss microarthropod communities after a high-temperature event. We show that community assembly depends on temperature and on degree of habitat isolation. Heated communities were heavily dominated in abundance by two species, one of them relatively large. The resulting size-structure is unlike that seen in the field. Community composition in habitat fragments appears also to have been influenced by the source pool of recolonizing fauna. Our results highlight the value of dispersal in disturbed landscapes and the potential for habitat connectivity to buffer communities from the effects of climate change.

Persistence increases with diversity and connectance in trophic metacommunities

BACKGROUND

We are interested in understanding if metacommunity dynamics contribute to the persistence of complex spatial food webs subject to colonization-extinction dynamics. We study persistence as a measure of stability of communities within discrete patches, and ask how do species diversity, connectance, and topology influence it in spatially structured food webs.

METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS

We answer this question first by identifying two general mechanisms linking topology of simple food web modules and persistence at the regional scale. We then assess the robustness of these mechanisms to more complex food webs with simulations based on randomly created and empirical webs found in the literature. We find that linkage proximity to primary producers and food web diversity generate a positive relationship between complexity and persistence in spatial food webs. The comparison between empirical and randomly created food webs reveal that the most important element for food web persistence under spatial colonization-extinction dynamics is the degree distribution: the number of prey species per consumer is more important than their identity.

CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE

With a simple set of rules governing patch colonization and extinction, we have predicted that diversity and connectance promote persistence at the regional scale. The strength of our approach is that it reconciles the effect of complexity on stability at the local and the regional scale. Even if complex food webs are locally prone to extinction, we have shown their complexity could also promote their persistence through regional dynamics. The framework we presented here offers a novel and simple approach to understand the complexity of spatial food webs.

Food-web structure and ecosystem services: insights from the Serengeti

The central organizing theme of this paper is to discuss the dynamics of the Serengeti grassland ecosystem from the perspective of recent developments in food-web theory. The seasonal rainfall patterns that characterize the East African climate create an annually oscillating, large-scale, spatial mosaic of feeding opportunities for the larger ungulates in the Serengeti; this in turn creates a significant annual variation in the food available for their predators. At a smaller spatial scale, periodic fires during the dry season create patches of highly nutritious grazing that are eaten in preference to the surrounding older patches of less palatable vegetation. The species interactions between herbivores and plants, and carnivores and herbivores, are hierarchically nested in the Serengeti food web, with the largest bodied consumers on each trophic level having the broadest diets that include species from a large variety of different habitats in the ecosystem. The different major habitats of the Serengeti are also used in a nested fashion; the highly nutritious forage of the short grass plains is available only to the larger migratory species for a few months each year. The longer grass areas, the woodlands and kopjes (large partially wooded rocky islands in the surrounding mosaic of grassland) contain species that are resident throughout the year; these species often have smaller body size and more specialized diets than the migratory species. Only the larger herbivores and carnivores obtain their nutrition from all the different major habitat types in the ecosystem. The net effect of this is to create a nested hierarchy of subchains of energy flow within the larger Serengeti food web; these flows are seasonally forced by rainfall and operate at different rates in different major branches of the web. The nested structure that couples sequential trophic levels together interacts with annual seasonal variation in the fast and slow chains of nutrient flow in a way that is likely to be central to the stability of the whole web. If the Serengeti is to be successfully conserved as a fully functioning ecosystem, then it is essential that the full diversity of natural habitats be maintained within the greater Serengeti ecosystem. The best way to do this is by controlling the external forces that threaten the boundaries of the ecosystem and by balancing the economic services the park provides between local, national and international needs. I conclude by discussing how the ecosystem services provided by the Serengeti are driven by species on different trophic levels. Tourism provides the largest financial revenue to the national economy, but it could be better organized to provide more sustained revenue to the park. Ultimately, ecotourism needs to be developed in ways that take lessons from the structure of the Serengeti food webs, and in ways that provide tangible benefits to people living around the park while also improving the experience of all visitors.