A holistic view of marine regime shifts

Predation and spatial connectivity interact to shape ecosystem resilience to an ongoing regime shift

Ecosystem regime shifts can have severe ecological and economic consequences, making it a top priority to understand how to make systems more resilient. Theory predicts that spatial connectivity and the local environment interact to shape resilience, but empirical studies are scarce. Here, we use >7000 fish samplings from the Baltic Sea coast to test this prediction in an ongoing, spatially propagating shift in dominance from predatory fish to an opportunistic mesopredator, with cascading effects throughout the food web. After controlling for the influence of other drivers (including increasing mesopredator densities), we find that predatory fish habitat connectivity increases resilience to the shift, but only when densities of fish-eating top predators (seals, cormorants) are low. Resilience also increases with temperature, likely through boosted predatory fish growth and recruitment. These findings confirm theoretical predictions that spatial connectivity and the local environment can together shape resilience to regime shifts.

Detecting shifts in nonlinear dynamics using Empirical Dynamic Modeling with Nested-Library Analysis

Abrupt changes in system states and dynamical behaviors are often observed in natural systems; such phenomena, named regime shifts, are explained as transitions between alternative steady states (more generally, attractors). Various methods have been proposed to detect regime shifts from time series data, but a generic detection method with theoretical linkage to underlying dynamics is lacking. Here, we provide a novel method named Nested-Library Analysis (NLA) to retrospectively detect regime shifts using empirical dynamic modeling (EDM) rooted in theory of attractor reconstruction. Specifically, NLA determines the time of regime shift as the cutting point at which sequential reduction of the library set (i.e., the time series data used to reconstruct the attractor for forecasting) optimizes the forecast skill of EDM. We illustrate this method on a chaotic model of which changing parameters present a critical transition. Our analysis shows that NLA detects the change point in the model system and outperforms existing approaches based on statistical characteristics. In addition, NLA empirically detected a real-world regime shift event revealing an abrupt change of Pacific Decadal Oscillation index around the mid-1970s. Importantly, our method can be easily generalized to various systems because NLA is equation-free and requires only a single time series.

ECOfast - An integrative ecological evaluation index for an ecosystem-based assessment of shallow rocky reefs

The degradation of marine ecosystems is a growing concern worldwide, emphasizing the need for efficient tools to assess their ecological status. Herein, a novel ecosystem-based ecological evaluation index of shallow rocky reefs is introduced and tested in the Aegean and Ionian Seas (NE Mediterranean). The index focuses on a specific set of pre-selected species, including habitat-forming, key, commercially important, and non-indigenous species, across a wide range of trophic levels (1.00-4.53). Data acquisition is conducted through rapid non-destructive SCUBA diving surveys to assess all macroscopic food web components (macroalgae, invertebrates, and fish). Two versions of the index, ECOfast and ECOfast-NIS, were developed, each applying a different approach to account for the impact of non-indigenous species. In our case study, the correlations between the two versions of the index and sea surface temperature, protection status, occurrence of carnivorous fish, and non-indigenous herbivores were assessed through generalized additive models (GAMs). The assessment assigned 93% (ECOfast) or 96% (ECOfast-NIS) of the sites to a moderate to bad ecological status, indicating an alarming situation in the shallow rocky reefs of the NE Mediterranean. Sites evaluated as poor or bad were characterized by extensive coverage of ephemeral macroalgae, absence or minimal presence of large indigenous carnivorous fish, and complete absence of one to three out of five invertebrate functional trophic groups. The community composition of macroalgae, herbivorous species, and carnivorous fishes differed between the 5 m and 15 m depth zones. Surface temperature and carnivorous fish occurrence were the most important tested predictors of the ecological status of shallow rocky reefs. The best GAMs showed that the ECOfast score declined with sea surface temperature and increased with the occurrence of carnivorous fish; ECOfast-NIS declined with sea surface temperature and the occurrence of non-indigenous fish and increased with the occurrence of carnivorous fish. The non-destructive and integrative nature of this approach, its speed of data acquisition and analysis, and its capacity to account for highly mobile predatory fish and non-indigenous species render the ECOfast index a novel, robust, and valuable tool for assessing the ecological status of shallow rocky reefs.

Eutrophication leads to food web enrichment and a lack of connectivity in a highly impacted urban lagoon

Nitrogen (N) loading can affect estuarine food webs through alteration of primary producers. In the Indian River Lagoon (IRL), Florida there has been long-term N enrichment, worsening phytoplankton blooms, large-scale macroalgal blooms, and catastrophic seagrass losses. To investigate how N enrichment affects higher trophic levels and food webs in the IRL, nutrient availability was compared to primary producer and faunal stable N (δ15N) isotope values. Seawater samples were collected in the IRL for dissolved nutrient, chlorophyll-a, and particulate organic matter δ15N analyses. Macrophytes and fauna were also collected for δ15N analyses. Throughout the IRL, N was elevated but was highest in the northern IRL and Banana River Lagoon. δ15N was enriched in these segments for most samples to levels characteristic of human-waste impacted estuaries. Variability in δ15N among lagoon segments suggests a low level of trophic connectivity. Decreasing N loading to the IRL and other eutrophic estuaries may help improve resiliency.

New Record of Dendronephthya sp. (Family: Nephtheidae) from Mediterranean Israel: Evidence for Tropicalization?

Bio-invasions have the potential to provoke cascade effects that can disrupt natural ecosystems and cause ecological regime shifts. The Mediterranean Sea is particularly prone to bio-invasions as the changing water conditions, evoked by climate change, are creating advantageous conditions for Lessepsian migrants from the Red Sea. Recently, in May 2023, a new alien species was documented in the Mediterranean Sea-a soft coral of the genus Dendronephthya. This discovery was made by divers conducting 'Long-Term Ecological Research' surveys, along the coast of Israel, at a depth of 42 m. Genetic and morphological testing suggest that the species identity may be Dendronepthya hemprichi, an Indo-Pacific coral, common in the Red Sea. According to life history traits of this species, such as accelerated attachment to available surfaces and fast growth, we expect it to rapidly expand its distribution and abundance across the Mediterranean Sea.

Emergence and retention of a collective memory in cockroaches

The stability of collective decisions-making in social systems is crucial as it can lead to counterintuitive phenomena such as collective memories, where an initial choice is challenged by environmental changes. Many social species face the challenge to perform collective decisions under variable conditions. In this study, we focused on situations where isolated individuals and groups of the American cockroach (Periplaneta americana) had to choose between two shelters with different luminosities that were inverted during the experiment. The darker shelter was initially preferred, but only groups that reached a consensus within that shelter maintain their choice after the light inversion, while isolated individuals and small groups lacked site fidelity. Our mathematical model, incorporating deterministic and probabilistic elements, sheds light on the significance interactions and their stochasticity in the emergence and retention of a collective memory.

Nutrient conditions determine the strength of herbivore‐mediated stabilizing feedbacks in barrens

Abiotic environmental conditions can significantly influence the way species interact. In particular, plant–herbivore interactions can be substantially dependent on temperature and nutrients. The overall product of these relationships is critical for the fate and stability of vegetated ecosystems like marine forests. The last few decades have seen a rapid spread of barrens on temperate rocky reefs mainly as a result of overgrazing. The ecological feedbacks that characterize the barren state involve a different set of interactions than those occurring in vegetated habitats. Reversing these trends requires a proper understanding of the novel feedbacks and the conditions under which they operate. Here, we explored the role of a secondary herbivore in reinforcing the stability of barrens formed by sea urchin overgrazing under different nutrient conditions. Combining comparative and experimental studies in two Mediterranean regions characterized by contrasting nutrient conditions, we assessed: (i) if the creation of barren areas enhances limpet abundance, (ii) the size‐specific grazing impact by limpets, and (iii) the ability of limpets alone to maintain barrens. Our results show that urchin overgrazing enhanced limpet abundance. The effects of limpet grazing varied with nutrient conditions, being up to five times more intense under oligotrophic conditions. Limpets were able to maintain barrens in the absence of sea urchins only under low‐nutrient conditions, enhancing the stability of the depauperate state. Overall, our study suggests a greater vulnerability of subtidal forests in oligotrophic regions of the Mediterranean and demonstrates the importance of environment conditions in regulating feedbacks mediated by plant–herbivore interactions.

A review of the knowledge of reef fish in the Southwest Atlantic

Reef environments are rapidly transforming worldwide, and these changes are causing major impacts to the reef ecosystem. Scientific knowledge is strategic for marine conservation and management in these scenarios. Aiming to contribute to this subject, a systematic review from 1967 to 2020 was conducted, in order to identify gaps in studies regarding reef fish species, ecosystem components and processes. Multidisciplinary sciences concerning reef fish have been rising, mainly in the fields of basic biology and ecology. Besides that, phase shifts and ecosystem services were absent terms in the analyzes of co-occurrence. Research in the ethnosciences needs to be increased, and will improve access to local ecological knowledge, which can be used as a tool to address issues in reef environments. Socio-ecological systems are components of this landscape that has had few publications. The participation in the elaboration of public policies can be a new avenue to foster the biodiversity of reef environments.

Fleshy red algae mats act as temporary reservoirs for sessile invertebrate biodiversity

Many coastal ecosystems, such as coral reefs and seagrass meadows, currently experience overgrowth by fleshy algae due to the interplay of local and global stressors. This is usually accompanied by strong decreases in habitat complexity and biodiversity. Recently, persistent, mat-forming fleshy red algae, previously described for the Black Sea and several Atlantic locations, have also been observed in the Mediterranean. These several centimetre high mats may displace seagrass meadows and invertebrate communities, potentially causing a substantial loss of associated biodiversity. We show that the sessile invertebrate biodiversity in these red algae mats is high and exceeds that of neighbouring seagrass meadows. Comparative biodiversity indices were similar to or higher than those recently described for calcifying green algae habitats and biodiversity hotspots like coral reefs or mangrove forests. Our findings suggest that fleshy red algae mats can act as alternative habitats and temporary sessile invertebrate biodiversity reservoirs in times of environmental change.

Comparative analyses of fleshy red algae mats and seagrass meadows highlight their value in fostering sessile invertebrate biodiversity.

Environmentally induced functional shifts in phytoplankton and their potential consequences for ecosystem functioning

Phytoplanktonic organisms are particularly sensitive to environmental change, and, as they represent a direct link between abiotic and biotic compartments within the marine food web, changes in the functional structure of phytoplankton communities can result in profound impacts on ecosystem functioning. Using a trait-based approach, we examined changes in the functional structure of the southern North Sea phytoplankton over the past five decades in relation to environmental conditions. We identified a shift in functional structure between 1998 and 2004 which coincides with a pronounced increase in diatom and decrease in dinoflagellate abundances, and we provide a mechanistic explanation for this taxonomic change. Early in the 2000s, the phytoplankton functional structure shifted from slow growing, autumn blooming, mixotrophic organisms, towards earlier blooming and faster-growing microalgae. Warming and decreasing dissolved phosphorus concentrations were linked to this rapid reorganization of the functional structure. We identified a potential link between this shift and dissolved nutrient concentrations, and we hypothesise that organisms blooming early and displaying high growth rates efficiently take up nutrients which then are no longer available to late bloomers. Moreover, we identified that the above-mentioned functional change may have bottom-up consequences, through a food quality-driven negative influence on copepod abundances. Overall, our study highlights that, by altering the phytoplankton functional composition, global and regional changes may have profound long-term impacts on coastal ecosystems, impacting both food-web structure and biogeochemical cycles.

Coral reef benthic community changes in the Anthropocene: Biogeographic heterogeneity, overlooked configurations, and methodology

Non-random community changes are becoming more frequent in many ecosystems. In coral reefs, changes towards communities dominated by other than hard corals are increasing in frequency, with severe impacts on ecosystem functioning and provision of ecosystem services. Although new research suggests that a variety of alternative communities (i.e. not dominated by hard corals) exist, knowledge on the global diversity and functioning of alternative coral reef benthic communities, especially those not dominated by algae, remains scattered. In this systematic review and meta-analysis of 523 articles, we analyse the different coral reef benthic community changes reported to date and discuss the advantages and limitations of the methods used to study these changes. Furthermore, we used field cover data (1116 reefs from the ReefCheck database) to explore the biogeographic and latitudinal patterns in dominant benthic organisms. We found a mismatch between literature focus on coral-algal changes (over half of the studies analysed) and observed global natural patterns. We identified strong biogeographic patterns, with the largest and most biodiverse biogeographic regions (Western and Central Indo-Pacific) presenting previously overlooked soft-coral-dominated communities as the most abundant alternative community. Finally, we discuss the potential biases associated with methods that overlook ecologically important cryptobenthic communities and the potential of new technological advances in improving monitoring efforts. As coral reef communities inevitably and swiftly change under changing ocean conditions, there is an urgent need to better understand the distribution, dynamics as well as the ecological and societal impacts of these new communities.

Temporary Allee effects among non-stationary recruitment dynamics in depleted gadid and flatfish populations

Many considerably declined fish populations have not fully recovered despite reductions in fishing pressure. One of the possible causes of impaired recovery is the (demographic) Allee effect. To investigate whether low-abundance recruitment dynamics can switch between compensation and depensation, the latter implying the presence of the Allee effect, we analysed the stock-recruitment time series of 17 depleted cod-type and flatfish populations using a Bayesian change point model. The recruitment dynamics were represented with the sigmoidal Beverton-Holt and the Saila-Lorda stock-recruitment models, allowing the parameters of the models to shift at a priori unknown change points. Our synthesis study questions the common assumption that recruitment is stationary and compensatory and the high amount of scatteredness often present in stock-recruitment data is only due to random variation. When a moderate amount of such variation was assumed, stock-recruitment dynamics were best explained by a non-stationary model for 53% of the populations, which suggests that these populations exhibit temporal changes in the stock-recruitment relationship. For four populations, we found shifts between compensation and depensation, suggesting the presence of temporary Allee effects. However, the evidence of Allee effects was highly dependent on the priors of the stock-recruitment model parameters and the amount of random variation assumed. Nonetheless, detection of changes in low-abundance recruitment is essential in stock assessment since such changes affect the renewal ability of the population and, ultimately, its sustainable harvest limits.

Stepping stones towards Antarctica: Switch to southern spawning grounds explains an abrupt range shift in krill

Poleward range shifts are a global-scale response to warming, but these vary greatly among taxa and are hard to predict for individual species, localized regions or over shorter (years to decadal) timescales. Moving poleward might be easier in the Arctic than in the Southern Ocean, where evidence for range shifts is sparse and contradictory. Here, we compiled a database of larval Antarctic krill, Euphausia superba and, together with an adult database, it showed how their range shift is out of step with the pace of warming. During a 70-year period of rapid warming (1920s-1990s), distribution centres of both larvae and adults in the SW Atlantic sector remained fixed, despite warming by 0.5-1.0°C and losing sea ice. This was followed by a hiatus in surface warming and ice loss, yet during this period the distributions of krill life stages shifted greatly, by ~1000 km, to the south-west. Understanding the mechanism of such step changes is essential, since they herald system reorganizations that are hard to predict with current modelling approaches. We propose that the abrupt shift was driven by climatic controls acting on localized recruitment hotspots, superimposed on thermal niche conservatism. During the warming hiatus, the Southern Annular Mode index continued to become increasingly positive and, likely through reduced feeding success for larvae, this led to a precipitous decline in recruitment from the main reproduction hotspot along the southern Scotia Arc. This cut replenishment to the northern portion of the krill stock, as evidenced by declining density and swarm frequency. Concomitantly, a new, southern reproduction area developed after the 1990s, reinforcing the range shift despite the lack of surface warming. New spawning hotspots may provide the stepping stones needed for range shifts into polar regions, so planning of climate-ready marine protected areas should include these key areas of future habitat.

Ichthyofaunal diversity with relation to environmental variables in the snow-fed Tamor River of eastern Nepal

Tamor River in eastern Nepal supports diverse hill stream fishes. From winter, spring, summer, and autumn of 2020, we investigated the ichthyofaunal diversity with environmental variables in the snow-fed Tamor River covering four seasons (winter, spring, summer, and autumn) and field surveys were carried out in January, April, July, and October 2020. We used two cast nets of different sizes, one with a mesh size of 2 cm, 6 m diameter and 6 kg weight and another having 0.5 cm, 3 m diameter and 2 kg weight. In addition, monofilament gill nets with mesh sizes of 6, 8, and 10 were used for fish sampling. A total of 6,373 fish individuals representing 28 species belonging to three orders, seven families, and 16 genera were recorded. One-way permutational multivariate analysis of variance (perMANOVA) on the Non-metric Multidimensional Scaling (NMDS) showed no significant (P >0.05) difference between winter, spring, and autumn season but summer season showed significant (P <0.05) difference from winter, spring, and autumn seasons. Furthermore, one-way analysis of variance on redundancy analysis (RDA) vindicated that among the selected parameters, pH, air temperature and total hardness were the influencing factors (P <0.05) to determine the fish community structure in Tamor River.

Climate causes shifts in grey seal phenology by modifying age structure

There are numerous examples of phenological shifts that are recognized both as indicators of climate change and drivers of ecosystem change. A pressing challenge is to understand the causal mechanisms by which climate affects phenology. We combined annual population census data and individual longitudinal data (1992-2018) on grey seals, Halicheorus grypus, to quantify the relationship between pupping season phenology and sea surface temperature. A temperature increase of 2°C was associated with a pupping season advance of approximately seven days at the population level. However, we found that maternal age, rather than sea temperature, accounted for changes in pupping date by individuals. Warmer years were associated with an older average age of mothers, allowing us to explain phenological observations in terms of a changing population age structure. Finally, we developed a matrix population model to test whether our observations were consistent with changes to the stable age distribution. This could not fully account for observed phenological shift, strongly suggesting transient modification of population age structure, for example owing to immigration. We demonstrate a novel mechanism for phenological shifts under climate change in long-lived, age- or stage-structured species with broad implications for dynamics and resilience, as well as population management.

Food web interactions in a human dominated Mediterranean coastal ecosystem

Mediterranean coastal ecosystems provide various valuable ecosystem goods and services; however, they are vulnerable to ecological degradation due to a dramatic increase in resource use and environmental stress. Disentangling the effects of multiple human interventions on coastal ecosystems requires whole description of food web interactions using quantitative tools. A mass balance Ecopath model has been developed here for Saronikos Gulf, a naturally oligotrophic Mediterranean coastal ecosystem with a long history of human interventions. Our main focus was to describe the structure and functioning of the ecosystem, investigate the trophic interplay among the various compartments of the food web under the impact of mixed multi-gear fisheries, and to quantify resilience related emergent ecosystem properties. To this end, we reviewed a large amount of local and regional biological information which was integrated in 40 functional groups covering all trophic levels, while fishing activities were described with 7 fleets. The model shared characteristics of both productive (e.g., high amount of flows) and oligotrophic systems (e.g., low biomass accumulation) and presented typical features of Mediterranean ecosystem functioning, such as the importance of detritus as an energy source, strong benthic-pelagic coupling and the dominance of the pelagic compartment in terms of total production and consumption. Trophic forcing in the ecosystem of Saronikos Gulf was complex with both top-down and bottom-up drivers being important. Zooplankton was the central nexus between basal resources and higher trophic levels, while top predators such as hake, squids and anglerfish were identified as keystone species presenting a significant overall effect on the food web via direct and indirect trophic interactions. Ecological indicators depicted a moderately complex food-web of a large and immature ecosystem with its strengths in reserve being affected by environmental degradation. Additionally, exploitation indices classified fishing activities in Saronikos Gulf as unsustainable, affecting several target groups, including high trophic level species. However, the morphological and bathymetric complexity of Saronikos Gulf seems to function as a natural ecological reserve for the ecosystem by providing nursery grounds to various species (e.g., hake, small pelagic fishes) and supporting important fish stocks for local fisheries.

Marine food web perspective to fisheries-induced evolution

Fisheries exploitation can cause genetic changes in heritable traits of targeted stocks. The direction of selective pressure forced by harvest acts typically in reverse to natural selection and selects for explicit life histories, usually for younger and smaller spawners with deprived spawning potential. While the consequences that such selection might have on the population dynamics of a single species are well emphasized, we are just beginning to perceive the variety and severity of its propagating effects within the entire marine food webs and ecosystems. Here, we highlight the potential pathways in which fisheries-induced evolution, driven by size-selective fishing, might resonate through globally connected systems. We look at: (i) how a size truncation may induce shifts in ecological niches of harvested species, (ii) how a changed maturation schedule might affect the spawning potential and biomass flow, (iii) how changes in life histories can initiate trophic cascades, (iv) how the role of apex predators may be shifting and (v) whether fisheries-induced evolution could codrive species to depletion and biodiversity loss. Globally increasing effective fishing effort and the uncertain reversibility of eco-evolutionary change induced by fisheries necessitate further research, discussion and precautionary action considering the impacts of fisheries-induced evolution within marine food webs.

Marine sponges maintain stable bacterial communities between reef sites with different coral to algae cover ratios

Marine sponges play a major ecological role in recycling resources on coral reef ecosystems. The cycling of resources may largely depend on the stability of the host-microbiome interactions and their susceptibility to altered environmental conditions. Given the current coral to algal phase shift on coral reefs, we investigated whether the sponge-associated bacterial communities of four sponge species, with either high or low microbial abundances (HMA and LMA), remain stable at two reefs sites with different coral to algae cover ratios. Additionally, we assessed the bacterial community composition of two of these sponge species before and after a reciprocal transplantation experiment between the sites. An overall stable bacterial community composition was maintained across the two sites in all sponge species, with a high degree of host-specificity. Furthermore, the core bacterial communities of the sponges remained stable also after a 21-day transplantation period, although a minor shift was observed in less abundant taxa (< 1%). Our findings support the conclusion that host identity and HMA-LMA status are stronger traits in shaping bacterial community composition than habitat. Nevertheless, long-term microbial monitoring of sponges along with benthic biomass and water quality assessments are needed for identifying ecosystem tolerance ranges and tipping points in ongoing coral reef phase shifts.

Evidence of a rapid phosphorus-induced regime shift in a large deep reservoir

Ecological regime shift studies in freshwater systems are mainly limited to shallow lakes and reservoirs, while abrupt changes in deeper lakes are often attributed to climate change. Here, we demonstrate the application of regime shift theory to one of California's newest and deepest reservoirs, Diamond Valley Lake (DVL), which in recent years showed an unexpected rapid departure from its water quality conditions of the previous decade. The reservoir shifted from a well oxygenated condition with low phytoplankton growth to a hypoxic, phytoplankton-dominated turbid system. We statistically identified the critical stressor (phosphorus (P)), switch points, and its load threshold and characterized its transition to an alternative stable state and the stabilizing mechanisms contributing to hysteresis. We analyzed long-term environmental, chemical and flow data, conducted a hydrographic survey, and developed a hydrodynamic model to characterize the factors that contributed to regime shift and to evaluate different management strategies that might reverse this shift. Our findings indicate that large deep systems exhibit different transition dynamics in the presence of an acute stressor compared to regime shifts in shallow systems. A cumulative external TP load threshold of 4.6 mg m^-2 d^-1 added to the reservoir over nearly 11 months was identified as the critical stressor. For large deep systems, inherent morphometric features such as large relative depth combine with external stressors to drive regime shifts. Light winds, morphometric conditions impeding deep mixing, and a stable stratification that lasts up to 9 months makes DVL more susceptible to hypolimnetic hypoxia, an intrinsic factor accelerating regime shift. Results also suggest regime shift occurred in 2013, when new limnological processes were established to reinforce the new alternative stable state and existing ecosystem services were impaired. Interactions between hypoxia, internal P loading (~2.1 mg m^-2 d^-1), and seasonal cyanobacterial blooms were identified as mechanisms perpetuating the new alternative state.

Tipping point realized in cod fishery

Understanding tipping point dynamics in harvested ecosystems is of crucial importance for sustainable resource management because ignoring their existence imperils social-ecological systems that depend on them. Fisheries collapses provide the best known examples for realizing tipping points with catastrophic ecological, economic and social consequences. However, present-day fisheries management systems still largely ignore the potential of their resources to exhibit such abrupt changes towards irreversible low productive states. Using a combination of statistical changepoint analysis and stochastic cusp modelling, here we show that Western Baltic cod is beyond such a tipping point caused by unsustainable exploitation levels that failed to account for changing environmental conditions. Furthermore, climate change stabilizes a novel and likely irreversible low productivity state of this fish stock that is not adapted to a fast warming environment. We hence argue that ignorance of non-linear resource dynamics has caused the demise of an economically and culturally important social-ecological system which calls for better adaptation of fisheries systems to climate change.

Feedback mechanisms stabilise degraded turf algal systems at a CO2 seep site

Human activities are rapidly changing the structure and function of coastal marine ecosystems. Large-scale replacement of kelp forests and coral reefs with turf algal mats is resulting in homogenous habitats that have less ecological and human value. Ocean acidification has strong potential to substantially favour turf algae growth, which led us to examine the mechanisms that stabilise turf algal states. Here we show that ocean acidification promotes turf algae over corals and macroalgae, mediating new habitat conditions that create stabilising feedback loops (altered physicochemical environment and microbial community, and an inhibition of recruitment) capable of locking turf systems in place. Such feedbacks help explain why degraded coastal habitats persist after being initially pushed past the tipping point by global and local anthropogenic stressors. An understanding of the mechanisms that stabilise degraded coastal habitats can be incorporated into adaptive management to better protect the contribution of coastal systems to human wellbeing.

Ben Harvey et al. use the gradient provided by a natural CO₂ seep off Shikine Island, Japan and lab microcosm experiments to determine how ocean acidification promotes turf algal habitat conditions that create stabilizing feedback loops and hysteresis capable of locking turf systems in place. These results further our understanding of feedback loops initiated by ocean acidification, and can assist in the management of coastal habitats.

Spatial and Temporal Variation of Fish Assemblages in Seti Gandaki River, Tanahu, Nepal

The space and time variations of the fish community structure in hill streams of Nepal are poorly understood. This research aims at studying the space and time variation of fish community structure in the Seti Gandaki River, Tanahu, Nepal. The field survey was conducted from July 2017 to June 2018 and the fishes were sampled from six sites using a medium size cast net of mesh size ranging from 3 mm to 6 mm mesh size, 25-33 feet length and 3.5-5 feet width, with the help of local fisher man. A total of 1,440 individuals were caught representing 46 species belonging to three order, nine families and 23 genera. The analysis of similarity (ANOSIM) showed significant difference in space (R = 0.824, P = 0.001) but not in time (R = 0.135, P = 0.021). On the basis of similarity percentage (SIMPER) analysis, 85.43% similarity was found among the seasons and major contributing species were Barilius bendelisis (8.44%) followed by B. vagra (7.79%), Tor putitora (7.27%), Garra gotyla (7%), Acanthocobotis botia (6.7%), Neolissochilus hexagonolepis (6.64%), Barilius shacra (6%), B. barila (4.5%) and Opsarius barna (4.37%). On the other hand, 85.24% similarity was found among the sites and major contributing species were B. bendelisis (8.8%) followed by B. vagra (7.6%), G. gotyla (7.27%), T. putitora (7.17%), A. botia (6.97%), N. hexagonolepis (6.7%), B. shacra (6.34%), B. barila (4.7%) and O. barna (4.39%). Results from the Canonical Correspondence Analysis indicated that the environmental variables, such as pH, total hardness, alkalinity, dissolved oxygen and water temperature have shown to determine the fish community structure of Seti Gandaki River. Keywords: Fish diversity, freshwater, habitat, spatio-temporal, stream

Production of mobile invertebrate communities on shallow reefs from temperate to tropical seas

Primary productivity of marine ecosystems is largely driven by broad gradients in environmental and ecological properties. By contrast, secondary productivity tends to be more variable, influenced by bottom-up (resource-driven) and top-down (predatory) processes, other environmental drivers, and mediation by the physical structure of habitats. Here, we use a continental-scale dataset on small mobile invertebrates (epifauna), common on surfaces in all marine ecosystems, to test influences of potential drivers of temperature-standardized secondary production across a large biogeographic range. We found epifaunal production to be remarkably consistent along a temperate to tropical Australian latitudinal gradient of 28.6°, spanning kelp forests to coral reefs (approx. 3500 km). Using a model selection procedure, epifaunal production was primarily related to biogenic habitat group, which explained up to 45% of total variability. Production was otherwise invariant to predictors capturing primary productivity, the local biomass of fishes (proxy for predation pressure), and environmental, geographical, and human impacts. Highly predictable levels of epifaunal productivity associated with distinct habitat groups across continental scales should allow accurate modelling of the contributions of these ubiquitous invertebrates to coastal food webs, thus improving understanding of likely changes to food web structure with ocean warming and other anthropogenic impacts on marine ecosystems.

Disentangling conditional effects of multiple regime shifts on Atlantic cod productivity

Regime shifts are increasingly prevalent in the ecological literature. However, definitions vary and detection methods are still developing. Here, we employ a novel statistical algorithm based on the Bayesian online change-point detection framework to simultaneously identify shifts in the mean and (or) variance of time series data. We detected multiple regime shifts in long-term (59-154 years) patterns of coastal Norwegian Atlantic cod (>70% decline) and putative drivers of cod productivity: North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO); sea-surface temperature; zooplankton abundance; fishing mortality (F). The consequences of an environmental or climate-related regime shift on cod productivity are accentuated when regime shifts coincide, fishing mortality is high, and populations are small. The analyses suggest that increasing F increasingly sensitized cod in the mid 1970s and late 1990s to regime shifts in NAO, zooplankton abundance, and water temperature. Our work underscores the necessity of accounting for human-induced mortality in regime shift analyses of marine ecosystems.

A New Long-Term Marine Biodiversity Monitoring Program for the Knowledge and Management in Marine Protected Areas of the Mexican Caribbean

In the Mexican Caribbean, 15 marine protected areas (MPAs) have been established for managing and protecting marine ecosystems. These MPAs receive high anthropogenic pressure from coastal development, tourism, and fishing, all in synergy with climate change. To contribute to the MPAs’ effectiveness, it is necessary to provide a long-term observation system of the condition of marine ecosystems and species. Our study proposes the establishment of a new marine biodiversity monitoring program (MBMP) focusing on three MPAs of the Mexican Caribbean. Five conservation objects (COs) were defined (coral reefs, seagrass beds, mangroves, marine turtles, and sharks-rays) for their ecological relevance and the pressures they are facing. Coral reef, seagrass and mangroves have multiple biological, biogeochemical and physical interactions. Marine turtles are listed as endangered species, and the status of their populations is unknown in the marine area of the MPAs. Elasmobranchs play a key role as top and medium predators, and their populations have been poorly studied. Indicators were proposed for monitoring each CO. As a technological innovation, all information obtained from the MBMP will be uploaded to the Coastal Marine Information and Analysis System (SIMAR), a public, user-friendly and interactive web platform that allows for automatic data management and processing.

Forecasting resilience profiles of the run-up to regime shifts in nearly-one-dimensional systems

The forecasting of sudden, irreversible shifts in natural systems is a challenge of great importance, whose realization could allow pre-emptive action to be taken to avoid or mitigate catastrophic transitions, or to help systems adapt to them. In recent years, there have been many advances in the development of such early warning signals. However, much of the current toolbox is based around the tracking of statistical trends and therefore does not aim to estimate the future time scale of transitions or resilience loss. Metric-based indicators are also difficult to implement when systems have inherent oscillations which can dominate the indicator statistics. To resolve these gaps in the toolbox, we use additional system properties to fit parsimonious models to dynamics in order to predict transitions. Here, we consider nearly-one-dimensional systems-higher dimensional systems whose dynamics can be accurately captured by one-dimensional discrete time maps. We show how the nearly one-dimensional dynamics can be used to produce model-based indicators for critical transitions which produce forecasts of the resilience and the time of transitions in the system. A particularly promising feature of this approach is that it allows us to construct early warning signals even for critical transitions of chaotic systems. We demonstrate this approach on two model systems: of phosphorous recycling in a shallow lake, and of an overcompensatory fish population.

A spatial regime shift from predator to prey dominance in a large coastal ecosystem

Regime shifts in ecosystem structure and processes are typically studied from a temporal perspective. Yet, theory predicts that in large ecosystems with environmental gradients, shifts should start locally and gradually spread through space. Here we empirically document a spatially propagating shift in the trophic structure of a large aquatic ecosystem, from dominance of large predatory fish (perch, pike) to the small prey fish, the three-spined stickleback. Fish surveys in 486 shallow bays along the 1200 km western Baltic Sea coast during 1979–2017 show that the shift started in wave-exposed archipelago areas near the open sea, but gradually spread towards the wave-sheltered mainland coast. Ecosystem surveys in 32 bays in 2014 show that stickleback predation on juvenile predators (predator–prey reversal) generates a feedback mechanism that appears to reinforce the shift. In summary, managers must account for spatial heterogeneity and dispersal to better predict, detect and confront regime shifts within large ecosystems.

Eklöf et al. report a spatially propagating shift in the trophic structure along the western Baltic Sea coast. The authors use fish surveys from 1979–2017 to show a shift from dominance of large predatory fish to the small prey fish, the three-spined stickleback, starting in wave-exposed areas and gradually moving to the wave-sheltered coast.

The role of multiple global change factors in driving soil functions and microbial biodiversity

Soils underpin terrestrial ecosystem functions, but they face numerous anthropogenic pressures. Despite their crucial ecological role, we know little about how soils react to more than two environmental factors at a time. Here, we show experimentally that increasing the number of simultaneous global change factors (up to 10) caused increasing directional changes in soil properties, soil processes, and microbial communities, though there was greater uncertainty in predicting the magnitude of change. Our study provides a blueprint for addressing multifactor change with an efficient, broadly applicable experimental design for studying the impacts of global environmental change.

Climate change, ecosystems and abrupt change: science priorities

Ecologists have long studied patterns, directions and tempos of change, but there is a pressing need to extend current understanding to empirical observations of abrupt changes as climate warming accelerates. Abrupt changes in ecological systems (ACES)-changes that are fast in time or fast relative to their drivers-are ubiquitous and increasing in frequency. Powerful theoretical frameworks exist, yet applications in real-world landscapes to detect, explain and anticipate ACES have lagged. We highlight five insights emerging from empirical studies of ACES across diverse ecosystems: (i) ecological systems show ACES in some dimensions but not others; (ii) climate extremes may be more important than mean climate in generating ACES; (iii) interactions among multiple drivers often produce ACES; (iv) contingencies, such as ecological memory, frequency and sequence of disturbances, and spatial context are important; and (v) tipping points are often (but not always) associated with ACES. We suggest research priorities to advance understanding of ACES in the face of climate change. Progress in understanding ACES requires strong integration of scientific approaches (theory, observations, experiments and process-based models) and high-quality empirical data drawn from a diverse array of ecosystems. This article is part of the theme issue 'Climate change and ecosystems: threats, opportunities and solutions'.

Catastrophic dynamics limit Atlantic cod recovery

Collapses and regime changes are pervasive in complex systems (such as marine ecosystems) governed by multiple stressors. The demise of Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua) stocks constitutes a text book example of the consequences of overexploiting marine living resources, yet the drivers of these nearly synchronous collapses are still debated. Moreover, it is still unclear why rebuilding of collapsed fish stocks such as cod is often slow or absent. Here, we apply the stochastic cusp model, based on catastrophe theory, and show that collapse and recovery of cod stocks are potentially driven by the specific interaction between exploitation pressure and environmental drivers. Our statistical modelling study demonstrates that for most of the cod stocks, ocean warming could induce a nonlinear discontinuous relationship between fishing pressure and stock size, which would explain hysteresis in their response to reduced exploitation pressure. Our study suggests further that a continuing increase in ocean temperatures will probably limit productivity and hence future fishing opportunities for most cod stocks of the Atlantic Ocean. Moreover, our study contributes to the ongoing discussion on the importance of climate and fishing effects on commercially exploited fish stocks, highlighting the importance of considering discontinuous dynamics in holistic ecosystem-based management approaches, particularly under climate change.

Socio-ecological vulnerability to tipping points: A review of empirical approaches and their use for marine management

Sustainability in the provision of ecosystem services requires understanding of the vulnerability of social-ecological systems (SES) to tipping points (TPs). Assessing SES vulnerability to abrupt ecosystem state changes remains challenging, however, because frameworks do not operationally link ecological, socio-economic and cultural elements of the SES. We conducted a targeted literature review on empirical assessments of SES and TPs in the marine realm and their use in ecosystem-based management. Our results revealed a plurality of terminologies, definitions and concepts that hampers practical operationalisation of these concepts. Furthermore, we found a striking lack of socio-cultural aspects in SES vulnerability assessments, possibly because of a lack of involvement of stakeholders and interest groups. We propose guiding principles for assessing vulnerability to TPs that build on participative approaches and prioritise the connectivity between SES components by accounting for component linkages, cascading effects and feedback processes.

Implications of Allee effects for fisheries management in a changing climate: evidence from Atlantic cod

There are concerns that increasing anthropogenic stressors can cause catastrophic transitions in ecosystems. Such shifts have large social, economic, and ecological consequences and therefore have important management implications. A potential mechanism behind these regime shifts is the Allee effect, which describes the decline in realized per capita growth rate at small population density. With an age-structured population model for Atlantic cod, Gadus morhua, we illustrate how interactions between human-induced stressors, such as fishing and climate change, can worsen the impact of an Allee effect on populations by promoting hysteresis. Therefore, the risk of population collapse and recovery failure is exacerbated and the success of preventing and reverting collapse depends on the climate regime. We find that, in presence of the Allee effect, a fishing moratorium is only sufficient for recovery when sea surface temperature rise remains within 2°C and fishing is restricted within 10 yrs. If sea surface temperature rises beyond 2°C, even immediate banning of fishing is not sufficient to guarantee recovery. If fishing is not fully banned and a residual fishing pressure remains, the probability of recovery is further decreased, also in the absence of an Allee effect. The results underscore the decisive role of Allee effects for the management of depleted populations in an increasingly human-dominated world. Once the population collapses and its growth rate is suppressed, rebuilding measures will be squandered and collapse will very likely be irreversible. We therefore emphasize the need for proactive management involving precautionary, adaptive measures and reference points. Our studies shows that climate change has the potential to strengthen Allee effects, which could increasingly challenge fisheries management.

Comparison of biological and ecological long-term trends related to northern hemisphere climate in different marine ecosystems

Data from five sites of the International Long Term Ecological Research (ILTER) network in the North-Eastern Pacific, Western Arctic Ocean, Northern Baltic Sea, South-Eastern North Sea and in the Western Mediterranean Sea were analyzed by dynamic factor analysis (DFA) to trace common multi-year trends in abundance and composition of phytoplankton, benthic fauna and temperate reef fish. Multiannual trends were related to climate and environmental variables to study interactions. Two common trends in biological responses were detected, with temperature and climate indices as explanatory variables in four of the five LTER sites considered. Only one trend was observed at the fifth site, the Northern Baltic Sea, where no explanatory variables were identified. Our findings revealed quasi-synchronous biological shifts in the different marine ecosystems coincident with the 2000 climatic regime shift and provided evidence on a possible further biological shift around 2010. The observed biological modifications were coupled with abrupt or continuous increase in sea water and air temperature confirming the key-role of temperature in structuring marine communities.

Monitoring for tipping points in the marine environment

Increasingly studies are reporting sudden and dramatic changes in the structure and function of communities or ecosystems. The prevalence of these reports demonstrates the importance for management of being able to detect whether these have happened and, preferably, whether they are likely to occur. Ecological theory provides the rationale for why such changes occur and a variety of statistical indicators of approach that have generic properties have been developed. However, whether the theory has successfully translated into monitoring programmes is unknown. We searched the literature for guidelines that would drive design of monitoring programmes able to detect past and approaching tipping points and analysed marine monitoring programmes in New Zealand. We found very few guidelines in the ecological, environmental or monitoring literature, although both simulation and marine empirical studies suggest that within-year sampling increases the likelihood of detecting approaching tipping points. The combination of the need to monitor both small and medium scale temporal dynamics of multiple variables to detect tipping points meant that few marine monitoring programmes in New Zealand were fit for that purpose. Interestingly, we found many marine examples of studies detecting past and approaching TP with fewer data than was common in the theoretical literature. We, therefore, suggest that utilizing ecological knowledge is of paramount importance in designing and analyzing time-series monitoring for tipping points and increasing the certainty for short-term or infrequent datasets of whether a tipping point has occurred. As monitoring plays an important role in management of tipping points by providing supporting information for other locations about when and why a tipping point may occur, we believe that monitoring for tipping points should be promoted.

Experimental support for alternative attractors on coral reefs

Ecological theory predicts that under the same environmental conditions, an ecosystem could have more than one community state that is maintained by reinforcing feedbacks. If so, a sufficiently large disturbance can flip the system to a less desired community that is difficult to reverse. Here, we demonstrate that a coral reef can become trapped in a seaweed-dominated state in the same conditions under which corals thrive. The implications are profound, particularly in light of the increasing occurrence of shifts to seaweed on coral reefs worldwide. Our results indicate that anticipatory management strategies that lessen the chance of a switch to seaweeds will be more effective than those aimed at restoring the coral community after a shift.

Ecological theory predicts that ecosystems with multiple basins of attraction can get locked in an undesired state, which has profound ecological and management implications. Despite their significance, alternative attractors have proven to be challenging to detect and characterize in natural communities. On coral reefs, it has been hypothesized that persistent coral-to-macroalgae “phase shifts” that can result from overfishing of herbivores and/or nutrient enrichment may reflect a regime shift to an alternate attractor, but, to date, the evidence has been equivocal. Our field experiments in Moorea, French Polynesia, revealed the following: (i) hysteresis existed in the herbivory–macroalgae relationship, creating the potential for coral–macroalgae bistability at some levels of herbivory, and (ii) macroalgae were an alternative attractor under prevailing conditions in the lagoon but not on the fore reef, where ambient herbivory fell outside the experimentally delineated region of hysteresis. These findings help explain the different community responses to disturbances between lagoon and fore reef habitats of Moorea over the past several decades and reinforce the idea that reversing an undesired shift on coral reefs can be difficult. Our experimental framework represents a powerful diagnostic tool to probe for multiple attractors in ecological systems and, as such, can inform management strategies needed to maintain critical ecosystem functions in the face of escalating stresses.

Density-dependent feedbacks, hysteresis, and demography of overgrazing sea urchins

Sea urchin grazing can result in regime shift from productive kelp beds to sea urchin barren grounds that represent an alternative and stable reef state. Here we examine the stability of urchin barrens by defining the demographics of the Australian urchin Heliocidaris erythrogramma during regime shift to, and maintenance of, barrens. Inverse-logistic modeling of calibrated in situ annual growth increments for five urchin populations, two from kelp beds and three from barrens, demonstrate slowing of urchin growth as availability and consumption of standing and/or drift kelp declines. Population age structures were predicted from observed sizes over four years (2012-2015, n = 5,864 individuals), which indicated stable age distributions for populations both maintaining barrens and actively grazing among kelp beds. Younger age distributions occurred on barrens whereas more mature populations existed within kelp beds, indicating that high recruitment facilitates maintenance of barrens while overgrazing appeared more reliant on adult urchins grazing from the edges of kelp beds, as opposed to juvenile recruitment among kelp. Leslie-matrix projections indicated potential for unchecked population growth for all study populations, but which varied depending on whether local or regional recruitment rates were modeled. Ultimately, strong density dependence was observed to check population growth; with high-recruitment/high-density populations offset by reduced growth rates and decreased longevity. Increasing disease rates among older urchins in high-density populations were consistent with observed density-dependent mortality, while tethering of healthy urchins revealed highest predation on small urchins within kelp beds, suggesting some remnant resilience of declining kelp habitat. Results demonstrate that the greatest opportunity for urchin population control is when reefs exist in the kelp bed state, at which point urchin populations are prone to negative feedback. Conversely, control of urchins on barrens is demonstrably difficult given positive density-dependent feedbacks that act to stabilize population size and which evidently underpin the hysteresis effect governing the persistence of this alternative stable state.

Linking atmospheric, terrestrial and aquatic environments: Regime shifts in the Estonian climate over the past 50 years

Climate change in recent decades has been identified as a significant threat to natural environments and human wellbeing. This is because some of the contemporary changes to climate are abrupt and result in persistent changes in the state of natural systems; so called regime shifts (RS). This study aimed to detect and analyse the timing and strength of RS in Estonian climate at the half-century scale (1966−2013). We demonstrate that the extensive winter warming of the Northern Hemisphere in the late 1980s was represented in atmospheric, terrestrial, freshwater and marine systems to an extent not observed before or after the event within the studied time series. In 1989, abiotic variables displayed statistically significant regime shifts in atmospheric, river and marine systems, but not in lake and bog systems. This was followed by regime shifts in the biotic time series of bogs and marine ecosystems in 1990. However, many biotic time series lacked regime shifts, or the shifts were uncoupled from large-scale atmospheric circulation. We suggest that the latter is possibly due to complex and temporally variable interactions between abiotic and biotic elements with ecosystem properties buffering biotic responses to climate change signals, as well as being affected by concurrent anthropogenic impacts on natural environments.

Linking concepts of change and ecosystem services research: A systematic review

Transformation, transition and regime shift are increasingly applied concepts in the academic literature to describe changes in society and the environment. Ecosystem services represent one framework that includes the implicit aim of supporting transformation towards a more sustainable system. Nevertheless, knowledge and systematic reviews on the use of these concepts within ecosystem services research are so far lacking. Therefore, we present a systematic literature review to analyse the interlinkages between these concepts and ecosystem services. Using a search string we identified 258 papers that we analysed based on 40 review criteria. Our results show that transformation was mentioned most often (197 articles), followed by transition (183 articles) and regime shifts (43 articles). Moreover, there is no consolidation of these concepts. Only 13% of all articles gave definitions for the three concepts. These definitions strongly overlapped in their use. Moreover, most papers described changes that happened in the past (73%). We conclude that research would benefit from being directed towards the future rather than evaluating what has happened in the past. Based on our results, we present: i) clear definitions for the three concepts; and ii) a framework highlighting the interlinkages between the ecosystem services cascade and the concepts of change.

A tale of two algal blooms: Negative and predictable effects of two common bloom-forming macroalgae on seagrass and epiphytes

Recent evidence suggests macroalgal blooms may play a role in the worldwide decline in seagrass, but the shape of the functional relationship between seagrass health and dominant bloom-forming macroalgae is poorly characterized. We tested whether the impact of varying abundances of two cosmopolitan bloom-forming macroalgal genera caused linear/quasi-linear or sudden threshold changes in measures of eelgrass, Zostera marina, meadow health. We conducted two caging experiments in a shallow Z. marina bed (∼1 m depth) in Bodega Harbor, California, USA where we maintained six densities within the range of natural abundances of macroalgae, Ulva (0-4.0 kg m^-2) and Gracilariopsis (0-2.0 kg m^-2), as well as uncaged controls over a 10-week period. Shoot density, blade growth, and epiphyte load were measured every two weeks and algal treatments reset. We did not find support for threshold transitions between algal abundance and measures of seagrass bed health using sigmoidal and broken-stick regression analyses for each data set; these models are commonly used to identify threshold patterns in ecological shifts. Instead, final measurements of shoot density and epiphyte load were best modelled as linear or slightly non-linear declines with increasing Ulva abundance. A negative linear relationship also existed between shoot density and Gracilariopsis abundance and a trend towards linear negative effects on epiphyte load. The similar shape of these functional relationships across different types of algae suggests the relationship may be generalizable. At algal abundances that are commonly observed, we found smooth and predictable negative impacts to Z. marina by decline in shoot density and potential impacts to food webs by loss of epiphytes rather than sudden threshold shifts or "ecological surprises". Our work contrasts with the growing body of literature suggesting highly non-linear shifts in response to human impact; thus, it is important to broaden understanding of shifts to more than just pattern but to the processes that drive different patterns of shifts.

Ecological regime shift drives declining growth rates of sea turtles throughout the West Atlantic

Somatic growth is an integrated, individual-based response to environmental conditions, especially in ectotherms. Growth dynamics of large, mobile animals are particularly useful as bio-indicators of environmental change at regional scales. We assembled growth rate data from throughout the West Atlantic for green turtles, Chelonia mydas, which are long-lived, highly migratory, primarily herbivorous mega-consumers that may migrate over hundreds to thousands of kilometers. Our dataset, the largest ever compiled for sea turtles, has 9690 growth increments from 30 sites from Bermuda to Uruguay from 1973 to 2015. Using generalized additive mixed models, we evaluated covariates that could affect growth rates; body size, diet, and year have significant effects on growth. Growth increases in early years until 1999, then declines by 26% to 2015. The temporal (year) effect is of particular interest because two carnivorous species of sea turtles-hawksbills, Eretmochelys imbricata, and loggerheads, Caretta caretta-exhibited similar significant declines in growth rates starting in 1997 in the West Atlantic, based on previous studies. These synchronous declines in productivity among three sea turtle species across a trophic spectrum provide strong evidence that an ecological regime shift (ERS) in the Atlantic is driving growth dynamics. The ERS resulted from a synergy of the 1997/1998 El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO)-the strongest on record-combined with an unprecedented warming rate over the last two to three decades. Further support is provided by the strong correlations between annualized mean growth rates of green turtles and both sea surface temperatures (SST) in the West Atlantic for years of declining growth rates (r = -.94) and the Multivariate ENSO Index (MEI) for all years (r = .74). Granger-causality analysis also supports the latter finding. We discuss multiple stressors that could reinforce and prolong the effect of the ERS. This study demonstrates the importance of region-wide collaborations.

Architecture of collapse: regime shift and recovery in an hierarchically structured marine ecosystem

By the late 20th century, a series of events or 'natural experiments', for example the depletion of apex predators, extreme eutrophication and blooms of invasive species, had suggested that the Black Sea could be considered as a large ecosystem 'laboratory'. The events resulted in regime shifts cascading through all trophic levels, disturbing ecosystem functioning and damaging the water environment. Causal pathways by which the external (hydroclimate, overfishing) and internal (food web interactions) drivers provoke regime shifts are investigated. Statistical data analyses supported by an interpretative framework based on hierarchical ecosystem theory revealed mechanisms of hierarchical incorporation of environmental factors into the ecosystem. Evidence links Atlantic teleconnections to Black Sea hydroclimate, which together with fishing shapes variability in fish stocks. The hydroclimatic signal is conveyed through the food web via changes in productivity at all levels, to planktivorous fish. Fluctuating fish abundance is believed to induce a lagged change in competitor jelly plankton that cascades down to phytoplankton and influences water quality. Deprived of the stabilising role of apex predators, the Black Sea's hierarchical ecosystem organisation is susceptible to both environmental and anthropogenic stresses, and increased fishing makes fish stock collapses highly probable. When declining stocks are confronted with burgeoning fishing effort associated with the inability of fishery managers and decision-makers to adapt rapidly to changes in fish abundance, there is overfishing and stock collapse. Management procedures are ineffective at handling complex phenomena such as ecosystem regime shifts because of the shortage of suitable explanatory models. The proposed concepts and models reported here relate the hydroclimate, overfishing and invasive species to shifts in ecosystem functioning and water quality, unravelling issues such as the causality of ecosystem interactions and mechanisms and offering potential for finding ways to reverse regime shifts. We advocate a management approach aiming at restoring ecosystem hierarchy that might mitigate the costly consequences of regime shifts.