Mechanisms driving phenological and range change in migratory species

Climate change drives migratory range shift via individual plasticity in shearwaters

How individual animals respond to climate change is key to whether populations will persist or go extinct. Yet, few studies investigate how changes in individual behavior underpin these population-level phenomena. Shifts in the distributions of migratory animals can occur through adaptation in migratory behaviors, but there is little understanding of how selection and plasticity contribute to population range shift. Here, we use long-term geolocator tracking of Balearic shearwaters (Puffinus mauretanicus) to investigate how year-to-year changes in individual birds' migrations underpin a range shift in the post-breeding migration. We demonstrate a northward shift in the post-breeding range and show that this is brought about by individual plasticity in migratory destination, with individuals migrating further north in response to changes in sea-surface temperature. Furthermore, we find that when individuals migrate further, they return faster, perhaps minimizing delays in return to the breeding area. Birds apparently judge the increased distance that they will need to migrate via memory of the migration route, suggesting that spatial cognitive mechanisms may contribute to this plasticity and the resulting range shift. Our study exemplifies the role that individual behavior plays in populations' responses to environmental change and highlights some of the behavioral mechanisms that might be key to understanding and predicting species persistence in response to climate change.

Predation risk drives long-term shifts in migratory behaviour and demography in a large herbivore population

Migration is an adaptive life-history strategy across taxa that helps individuals maximise fitness by obtaining forage and avoiding predation risk. The mechanisms driving migratory changes are poorly understood, and links between migratory behaviour, space use, and demographic consequences are rare. Here, we use a nearly 20-year record of individual-based monitoring of a large herbivore, elk (Cervus canadensis) to test hypotheses for changing patterns of migration in and adjacent to a large protected area in Banff National Park (BNP), Canada. We test whether bottom-up (forage quality) or top-down (predation risk) factors explained trends in (i) the proportion of individuals using 5 different migratory tactics, (ii) differences in survival rates of migratory tactics during migration and whilst on summer ranges, (iii) cause-specific mortality by wolves and grizzly bears, and (iv) population abundance. We found dramatic shifts in migration consistent with behavioural plasticity in individual choice of annual migratory routes. Shifts were inconsistent with exposure to the bottom-up benefits of migration. Instead, exposure to landscape gradients in predation risk caused by exploitation outside the protected area drove migratory shifts. Carnivore exploitation outside the protected area led to higher survival rates for female elk remaining resident or migrating outside the protected area. Cause-specific mortality aligned with exposure to predation risk along migratory routes and summer ranges. Wolf predation risk was higher on migratory routes than summer ranges of montane-migrant tactics, but wolf predation risk traded-off with heightened risk from grizzly bears on summer ranges. A novel eastern migrant tactic emerged following a large forest fire that enhanced forage in an area with lower predation risk outside of the protected area. The changes in migratory behaviour translated to population abundance, where abundance of the montane-migratory tactics declined over time. The presence of diverse migratory life histories maintained a higher total population abundance than would have been the case with only one migratory tactic in the population. Our study demonstrates the complex ways in which migratory populations change over time through behavioural plasticity and associated demographic consequences because of individuals balancing predation risk and forage trade-offs.

Global temperature homogenization can obliterate temporal isolation in migratory animals with potential loss of population structure

Climate change is expected to increase the spatial autocorrelation of temperature, resulting in greater synchronization of climate variables worldwide. Possibly such 'homogenization of the world' leads to elevated risks of extinction and loss of biodiversity. In this study, we develop an empirical example on how increasing synchrony of global temperatures can affect population structure in migratory animals. We studied two subspecies of bar-tailed godwits Limosa lapponica breeding in tundra regions in Siberia: yamalensis in the west and taymyrensis further east and north. These subspecies share pre- and post-breeding stopover areas, thus being partially sympatric, but exhibiting temporal segregation. The latter is believed to facilitate reproductive isolation. Using satellite tracking data, we show that migration timing of both subspecies is correlated with the date of snowmelt in their respective breeding sites (later at the taymyrensis breeding range). Snow-cover satellite images demonstrate that the breeding ranges are on different climate trajectories and become more synchronized over time: between 1997 and 2020, the date of snowmelt advanced on average by 0.5 days/year in the taymyrensis breeding range, while it remained stable in the yamalensis breeding range. Previous findings showed how taymyrensis responded to earlier snowmelt by advancing arrival and clutch initiation. In the predicted absence of such advancements in yamalensis, we expect that the two populations will be synchronized by 2036-2040. Since bar-tailed godwits are social migrants, this raises the possibility of population exchange and prompts the question whether the two subspecies can maintain their geographic and morphological differences and population-specific migratory routines. The proposed scenario may apply to a wide range of (social) migrants as temporal segregation is crucial for promoting and maintaining reproductive isolation in many (partially sympatric) migratory populations. Homogenization of previously isolated populations could be an important consequence of increasing synchronized environments and hence climate change.

Migratory swans individually adjust their autumn migration and winter range to a warming climate

In response to climate warming, migratory animals can alter their migration so that different events in the annual cycle are better aligned in space and time with suitable environmental conditions. Although such responses have been studied extensively during spring migration and the breeding season, much less is known about the influence of temperature on movements throughout autumn migration and how those movements result in a winter range and shifts therein. We use multi-year GPS tracking data to quantify how daily autumn movement and annual winter distance from the breeding grounds are related to temperature in the Western Palearctic Bewick's swan, a long-lived migratory waterbird whose winter range has shifted more than 350 km closer to the breeding grounds since 1970 due to individuals increasingly 'short-stopping' their autumn migration. We show that the migratory movement of swans is driven by lower temperatures throughout the autumn season, with individuals during late autumn moving only substantially when temperatures drop below freezing. As a result, there is large flexibility in their annual winter distance as a response to winter temperature. On average, individuals overwinter 118 km closer to the breeding grounds per 1°C increase in mean December-January temperature. Given the observed temperature increase in the Bewick's swan winter range during the last decades, our results imply that the observed range shift is for a substantial part driven by individual responses to a warming climate. We thus present an example of individual flexibility towards climatic conditions driving the range shift of a migratory species. Our study adds to the understanding of the processes that shape autumn migration decisions, winter ranges and shifts therein, which is crucial to be able to predict how climate change may impact these processes in the future.

Mechanistic modeling of climate effects on redistribution and population growth in a community of fish species

Understanding community responses to climate is critical for anticipating the future impacts of global change. However, despite increased research efforts in this field, models that explicitly include important biological mechanisms are lacking. Quantifying the potential impacts of climate change on species is complicated by the fact that the effects of climate variation may manifest at several points in the biological process. To this end, we extend a dynamic mechanistic model that combines population dynamics, such as species interactions, with species redistribution by allowing climate to affect both processes. We examine their relative contributions in an application to the changing biomass of a community of eight species in the Gulf of Maine using over 30 years of fisheries data from the Northeast Fishery Science Center. Our model suggests that the mechanisms driving biomass trends vary across space, time, and species. Phase space plots demonstrate that failing to account for the dynamic nature of the environmental and biologic system can yield theoretical estimates of population abundances that are not observed in empirical data. The stock assessments used by fisheries managers to set fishing targets and allocate quotas often ignore environmental effects. At the same time, research examining the effects of climate change on fish has largely focused on redistribution. Frameworks that combine multiple biological reactions to climate change are particularly necessary for marine researchers. This work is just one approach to modeling the complexity of natural systems and highlights the need to incorporate multiple and possibly interacting biological processes in future models.

Significantly Earlier Spring Migration in Most Bird Species at the Eastern Limit of Europe

The first arrival dates of 31 species of migrant birds in the Tatarstan Republic of Russia were monitored for the 34-year period from 1989-2022. Trends in first arrival date were evaluated using regression against the year value. Patterns in arrival data with respect to species traits (habitat, migration distance, body weight, etc.) were evaluated using redundancy analysis. Relationships between first arrival dates and Tatarstan temperatures were also evaluated using regression methods of first-arrival date on monthly mean temperatures. Almost all (28 of 31) species revealed a significantly earlier migration arrival date; however, associations between arrival patterns and species traits were equivocal. Warmer temperatures were significantly associated with earlier arrival in 26 of the 31 species, but the relationship was insufficient to explain the average 11-day advance in species. For these species and in this location only the timing and location of arrival are well recorded; the exact wintering areas and migration routes, and the timing of these phases are less well understood. When these become better known, an investigation of the influence of environmental conditions (including temperature) on departure timing and passage timing and speed is recommended.

Gauge-and-compass migration: inherited magnetic headings and signposts can adapt to changing geomagnetic landscapes

BACKGROUND

For many migratory species, inexperienced (naïve) individuals reach remote non-breeding areas independently using one or more inherited compass headings and, potentially, magnetic signposts to gauge where to switch between compass headings. Inherited magnetic-based migration has not yet been assessed as a population-level process, particularly across strong geomagnetic gradients or where long-term geomagnetic shifts (hereafter, secular variation) could create mismatches with magnetic headings. Therefore, it remains unclear whether inherited magnetic headings and signposts could potentially adapt to secular variation under natural selection.

METHODS

To address these unknowns, we modelled migratory orientation programs using an evolutionary algorithm incorporating global geomagnetic data (1900-2023). Modelled population mixing incorporated both natal dispersal and trans-generational inheritance of magnetic headings and signposts, including intrinsic (stochastic) variability in inheritance. Using the model, we assessed robustness of trans-hemispheric migration of a migratory songbird whose Nearctic breeding grounds have undergone rapid secular variation (mean 34° clockwise drift in declination, 1900-2023), and which travels across strong geomagnetic gradients via Europe to Africa.

RESULTS

Model-evolved magnetic-signposted migration was overall successful throughout the 124-year period, with 60-90% mean successful arrival across a broad range in plausible precision in compass headings and gauging signposts. Signposted migration reduced trans-Atlantic flight distances and was up to twice as successful compared with non-signposted migration. Magnetic headings shifted plastically in response to the secular variation (mean 16°-17° among orientation programs), whereas signpost latitudes were more constrained (3°-5° mean shifts). This plasticity required intrinsic variability in inheritance (model-evolved σ ≈ 2.6° standard error), preventing clockwise secular drift from causing unsustainable open-ocean flights.

CONCLUSIONS

Our study supports the potential long-term viability of inherited magnetic migratory headings and signposts, and illustrates more generally how inherited migratory orientation programs can both mediate and constrain evolution of routes, in response to global environmental change.

Projected Shifts in Bird Distribution in India under Climate Change

Global climate change is causing unprecedented impacts on biodiversity. In India, there is little information available regarding how climate change affects biodiversity at the taxon/group level, and large-scale ecological analyses have been lacking. In this study, we demonstrated the applicability of eBird and GBIF (Global Biodiversity Information Facility), and produced national-scale forecasts to examine the possible impacts of climate change on terrestrial avifauna in India. Using data collected by citizen scientists, we developed fine-tuned Species Distribution Models (SDMs) and predicted 1091 terrestrial bird species that would be distributed in India by 2070 on two climatic surfaces (RCP 4.5 and 8.5), using Maximum Entropy-based species distribution algorithms. Of the 1091 species modelled, our findings indicate that 66–73% of bird species in India will shift to higher elevations or shift northward, and 58–59% of bird species (RCP 4.5 and 8.5) would lose a portion of their distribution ranges. Furthermore, distribution ranges of 41–40% of bird species would increase. Under both RCP scenarios (RCP 4.5 and 8.5), bird species diversity will significantly increase in regions above 2500 m in elevation. Both RCP scenarios predict extensive changes in the species richness of the western Himalayas, Sikkim, northeast India, and the western Ghats regions by 2070. This study has resulted in novel, high-resolution maps of terrestrial bird species richness across India, and we predict predominantly northward shifts in species ranges, similar to predictions made for avifauna in other regions, such as Europe and the USA.

Age-related changes in migratory behaviour within the first annual cycle of a passerine bird

First time migrants (juveniles hereafter) of many species migrate without specific knowledge of non-breeding locations, but experience may aid adults in timing and route decisions because they can migrate more efficiently to their previous non-breeding sites. Consequently, we expect a transition to more efficient migratory behaviour with age, but when and how this happens is little known. We used light-level geolocator data from Cyprus wheatears Oenanthe cypriaca to compare migration timing and route directness between juveniles and adults, and repeatability of their timing and non-breeding locations. We predicted that juveniles would depart and arrive later than adults for both autumn and spring migration; that duration of migration would be greater for juveniles; that routes taken by juveniles would be less direct than those for adults; and that autumn and spring departure timing, and non-breeding locations, would be more repeatable for adults between two years than for juveniles between their first and subsequent migration. We found that juveniles departed significantly later than adults in autumn but there was no difference in arrival timing, and although spring departure timings did not differ, juveniles arrived on the breeding grounds later than adults. Nevertheless, we found no significant age-related difference in the duration of migration in autumn or spring. Yet, juvenile migrations were less direct than those of adults in autumn, but not spring. We found evidence that spring departure timing and non-breeding locations were repeatable for adults but not juveniles. Our findings show that age-related changes in migratory behaviour begin to occur during the first annual cycle demonstrating the potential for early adaptation to environmental variability within an individual's life.

Effects of pair migratory behavior on breeding phenology and success in a partially migratory shorebird population

In migratory systems, variation in individual phenology can arise through differences in individual migratory behaviors, and this may be particularly apparent in partial migrant systems, where migrant and resident individuals are present within the same population. Links between breeding phenology and migratory behavior or success are generally investigated at the individual level. However, for breeding phenology in particular, the migratory behaviors of each member of the pair may need to be considered simultaneously, as breeding phenology will likely be constrained by timing of the pair member that arrives last, and carryover effects on breeding success may vary depending on whether pair members share the same migratory behavior or not. We used tracking of marked individuals and monitoring of breeding success from a partially migrant population of Eurasian oystercatchers (Haematopus ostralegus) breeding in Iceland to test whether (a) breeding phenology varied with pair migratory behavior; (b) within‐pair consistency in timing of laying differed among pair migratory behaviors; and (c) reproductive performance varied with pair migratory behavior, timing of laying, and year. We found that annual variation in timing of laying differed among pair migratory behaviors, with resident pairs being more consistent than migrant and mixed pairs, and migrant/mixed pairs breeding earlier than residents in most years but later in one (unusually cold) year. Pairs that laid early were more likely to replace their clutch after nest loss, had higher productivity and higher fledging success, independent of pair migratory behavior. Our study suggests that the links between individual migratory behavior and reproductive success can vary over time and, to a much lesser extent, with mate migratory behavior and can be mediated by differences in laying dates. Understanding these cascading effects of pair phenology on breeding success is likely to be key to predicting the impact of changing environmental conditions on migratory species.

Individual repeatability of avian migration phenology: a systematic review and meta-analysis

Changes in phenology and distribution are being widely reported for many migratory species in response to shifting environmental conditions. Understanding these changes and the situations in which they occur can be aided by understanding consistent individual differences in phenology and distribution and the situations in which consistency varies in strength or detectability. Studies tracking the same individuals over consecutive years are increasingly reporting migratory timings to be a repeatable trait, suggesting that flexible individual responses to environmental conditions may contribute little to population-level changes in phenology and distribution. However, how this varies across species and sexes, across the annual cycle and in relation to study (tracking method, study design) and/or ecosystem characteristics is not yet clear. Here, we take advantage of the growing number of publications in movement ecology to perform a phylogenetic multilevel meta-analysis of repeatability estimates for avian migratory timings to investigate these questions. Of 2,433 reviewed studies, 54 contained suitable information for meta-analysis, resulting in 177 effect sizes from 47 species. Individual repeatability of avian migratory timings averaged 0.414 (95% confidence interval: 0.3-0.5) across landbirds, waterbirds and seabirds, suggesting consistent individual differences in migratory timings is a common feature of migratory systems. Timing of departure from the non-breeding grounds was more repeatable than timings of arrival at or departure from breeding grounds, suggesting that conditions encountered on migratory journeys and outcome of breeding attempts can influence individual variation. Population-level shifts in phenology could arise through individual timings changing with environmental conditions and/or through shifts in the numbers of individuals with different timings. Our findings suggest that, in addition to identifying the conditions associated with individual variation in phenology, exploring the causes of between-individual variation will be key in predicting future rates and directions of changes in migratory timings. We therefore encourage researchers to report the within- and between- individual variance components underpinning the reported repeatability estimates to aid interpretation of migration behaviour. In addition, the lack of studies in the tropics means that levels of repeatability in less strongly seasonal environments are not yet clear.

Age-dependent timing and routes demonstrate developmental plasticity in a long-distance migratory bird

Longitudinal tracking studies have revealed consistent differences in the migration patterns of individuals from the same populations. The sources or processes causing this individual variation are largely unresolved. As a result, it is mostly unknown how much, how fast and when animals can adjust their migrations to changing environments.

We studied the ontogeny of migration in a long‐distance migratory shorebird, the black‐tailed godwit Limosa limosa limosa, a species known to exhibit marked individuality in the migratory routines of adults. By observing how and when these individual differences arise, we aimed to elucidate whether individual differences in migratory behaviour are inherited or emerge as a result of developmental plasticity.

We simultaneously tracked juvenile and adult godwits from the same breeding area on their south‐ and northward migrations. To determine how and when individual differences begin to arise, we related juvenile migration routes, timing and mortality rates to hatch date and hatch year. Then, we compared adult and juvenile migration patterns to identify potential age‐dependent differences.

In juveniles, the timing of their first southward departure was related to hatch date. However, their subsequent migration routes, orientation, destination, migratory duration and likelihood of mortality were unrelated to the year or timing of migration, or their sex. Juveniles left the Netherlands after all tracked adults. They then flew non‐stop to West Africa more often and incurred higher mortality rates than adults. Some juveniles also took routes and visited stopover sites far outside the well‐documented adult migratory corridor. Such juveniles, however, were not more likely to die.

We found that juveniles exhibited different migratory patterns than adults, but no evidence that these behaviours are under natural selection. We thus eliminate the possibility that the individual differences observed among adult godwits are present at hatch or during their first migration. This adds to the mounting evidence that animals possess the developmental plasticity to change their migration later in life in response to environmental conditions as those conditions are experienced.

Flyway-scale analysis reveals that the timing of migration in wading birds is becoming later

Understanding the implications of climate change for migratory animals is paramount for establishing how best to conserve them. A large body of evidence suggests that birds are migrating earlier in response to rising temperatures, but many studies focus on single populations of model species.Migratory patterns at large spatial scales may differ from those occurring in single populations, for example because of individuals dispersing outside of study areas. Furthermore, understanding phenological trends across species is vital because we need a holistic understanding of how climate change affects wildlife, especially as rates of temperature change vary globally.The life cycles of migratory wading birds cover vast latitudinal gradients, making them particularly susceptible to climate change and, therefore, ideal model organisms for understanding its effects. Here, we implement a novel application of changepoint detection analysis to investigate changes in the timing of migration in waders at a flyway scale using a thirteen-year citizen science dataset (eBird) and determine the influence of changes in weather conditions on large-scale migratory patterns.In contrast to most previous research, our results suggest that migration is getting later in both spring and autumn. We show that rates of change were faster in spring than autumn in both the Afro-Palearctic and Nearctic flyways, but that weather conditions in autumn, not in spring, predicted temporal changes in the corresponding season. Birds migrated earlier in autumn when temperatures increased rapidly, and later with increasing headwinds.One possible explanation for our results is that migration is becoming later due to northward range shifts, which means that a higher proportion of birds travel greater distances and therefore take longer to reach their destinations. Our findings underline the importance of considering spatial scale when investigating changes in the phenology of migratory bird species.

Advancement in long-distance bird migration through individual plasticity in departure

Globally, bird migration is occurring earlier in the year, consistent with climate-related changes in breeding resources. Although often attributed to phenotypic plasticity, there is no clear demonstration of long-term population advancement in avian migration through individual plasticity. Using direct observations of bar-tailed godwits (Limosa lapponica) departing New Zealand on a 16,000-km journey to Alaska, we show that migration advanced by six days during 2008-2020, and that within-individual advancement was sufficient to explain this population-level change. However, in individuals tracked for the entire migration (50 total tracks of 36 individuals), earlier departure did not lead to earlier arrival or breeding in Alaska, due to prolonged stopovers in Asia. Moreover, changes in breeding-site phenology varied across Alaska, but were not reflected in within-population differences in advancement of migratory departure. We demonstrate that plastic responses can drive population-level changes in timing of long-distance migration, but also that behavioral and environmental constraints en route may yet limit adaptive responses to global change.

Birds use individually consistent temperature cues to time their migration departure

Whether migratory populations are preadapted or constrained in responding to global climate change largely depends on which cues individuals use when deciding to start their migration. The identity of these cues is revealed by whether response thresholds are consistent within, but differ between, individuals (“repeatability”). By satellite tracking 48 individuals across multiple migrations, we show that 1) Asian houbara used the environmental cue of local temperature, which was correlated between wintering and breeding grounds, to time their spring migration departure; 2) departure responses to temperature varied between individuals but were individually repeatable; and 3) individuals’ use of temperature as a cue allowed for adaptive population-level change in migration timing, relative to annual variation in spring temperatures.

A fundamental issue in migration biology is how birds decide when to start their journey, given that arriving too early or too late in a variable environment reduces individual fitness. Internal circannual regulation and predictable cues such as photoperiod prepare birds for migration, while variable external cues such as temperature and wind are thought to fine-tune departure times; however, this has not been demonstrated at the key point at which an individual animal decides to start migrating. In theory, environmental cues correlated between departure and arrival sites allow informed departure decisions. For 48 satellite-tracked Asian houbara Chlamydotis macqueenii, a medium-distance migrant with climatic connectivity between wintering and breeding areas, each tracked across multiple years, spring departure was under individually consistent temperature conditions, with greater individual repeatability than for photoperiod or wind. Individuals occupied a range of wintering sites latitudinally spanning 1,200 km but departed at lower temperatures from more northerly latitudes. These individual departure decisions produced earlier mean population-level departure and arrival dates in warmer springs. Phenological adjustments were fully compensatory, because individuals arrived on the breeding grounds under similar temperature conditions each year. Individuals’ autumn departure decisions were also repeatable for temperature but less distinct than for spring, likely because of relaxed time constraints on leaving breeding grounds and the use of wind as a supplementary departure cue. We show that individual-level departure decisions informed by local temperatures can preadapt a population to adjust its population-level phenology in response to annual variability in spring temperatures without requiring genetic change in reaction thresholds.

Human activity shapes the wintering ecology of a migratory bird

Human behavior profoundly affects the natural world. Migratory birds are particularly susceptible to adverse effects of human activities because the global networks of ecosystems on which birds rely are undergoing rapid change. In spite of these challenges, the blackcap (Sylvia atricapilla) is a thriving migratory species. Its recent establishment of high-latitude wintering areas in Britain and Ireland has been linked to climate change and backyard bird feeding, exemplifying the interaction between human activity and migrant ecology. To understand how anthropogenic influences shape avian movements and ecology, we marked 623 wintering blackcaps at 59 sites across Britain and Ireland and compiled a dataset of 9929 encounters. We investigated visitation behavior at garden feeding sites, inter-annual site fidelity, and movements within and across seasons. We analyzed migration tracks from 25 geolocators fitted to a subset of individuals to understand how garden behavior may impact subsequent migration and breeding. We found that blackcaps wintering in Britain and Ireland showed high site fidelity and low transience among wintering sites, in contrast to the itinerant movements characteristic of blackcaps wintering in their traditional winter range. First-winter birds showed lower site fidelity and a greater likelihood of transience than adults. Adults that frequented gardens had better body condition, smaller fat stores, longer bills, and rounder wingtips. However, blackcaps did not exclusively feed in gardens; visits were linked to harsher weather. Individuals generally stayed at garden sites until immediately before spring departure. Our results suggest that supplementary feeding is modifying blackcap winter ecology and driving morphological evolution. Supplemental feeding may have multifaceted benefits on winter survival, and these positive effects may carry over to migration and subsequent breeding. Overall, the high individual variability in blackcap movement and foraging ecology, and the flexibility it imparts, may have allowed this species to flourish during rapid environmental change.

Monarch Butterfly Migration as an Integrative Model of Complex Trait Evolution

AbstractUnderstanding the genetic architecture of complex trait adaptation in natural populations requires the continued development of tractable models that explicitly confront organismal and environmental complexity. A decade of high-throughput sequencing-based investigations into the genomic basis of migration points to an integrative framework that incorporates quantitative genetics, evolutionary developmental biology, phenotypic plasticity, and epigenetics to explain migration evolution. In this perspective, I argue that the transcontinental migration of the monarch butterfly (Danaus plexippus) can serve as a compelling system to study the mechanism of evolutionary lability of a complex trait. Monarchs show significant phenotypic and genotypic diversity across their global range, with phenotypic switching that allows for explicit study of evolutionary lability. A developmental approach for elucidating how migratory traits are generated and functionally integrated will be important for understanding the evolution of monarch migration traits. I propose a plasticity threshold model to describe migration lability, and I describe novel functional techniques that will help resolve open questions and model assumptions. I conclude by considering the relationships between adaptive genetic architecture, anthropogenic climate change, and conservation management practice and the timeliness of the monarch migration model to illuminate these connections given the rapid decline of the North American migration.

Paternal effects in the initiation of migratory behaviour in birds

What determines why some birds migrate and others do not? This question is fundamental to understanding how migratory systems are responding to environmental changes, but the causes of individual migratory behaviours have proven difficult to isolate. We show that, in a partially migratory population of Eurasian oystercatchers (Haematopus ostralegus), the migratory behaviour of progeny follows paternal but not maternal behaviour, and is unrelated to timing of hatching or fledging. These findings highlight the key role of social interactions in shaping the migratory behaviour of new generations, and thus the spatio-temporal distribution of migratory populations.

Generational shift in the migratory common noctule bat: first-year males lead the way to hibernacula at higher latitudes

Many migratory species have shifted their geographic distribution in response to climate change, yet the underlying mechanisms are poorly understood, particularly for mammals. We hypothesized that generational shifts are underlying the observed colonization of hibernation sites further north in a migratory bat, the common noctule (Nyctalus noctula). To evaluate our hypothesis, we collected long-term data on the migratory status and demography of common noctules in a recently colonized hibernation area. Based on isotopic data of 413 individuals, we observed a significant decline in the proportion of long-distance migrants from 2004 to 2015 for both sexes and across all age groups. Demographic data collected between 2007 and 2016 from 3394 individuals demonstrated that subadult males were more abundant during the early colonization stage, followed by a gradual shift to a more balanced age and sex composition. Our results suggest that the colonization of hibernacula at higher latitudes is promoted by generational shifts, involving mostly first-year males. Generational shifts seem to be a likely mechanism for distribution changes in other bats and potentially also in other mammals.

Concurrent shifts in wintering distribution and phenology in migratory swans: Individual and generational effects

Range shifts and phenological change are two processes by which organisms respond to environmental warming. Understanding the mechanisms that drive these changes is key for optimal conservation and management. Here we study both processes in the migratory Bewick's swan (Cygnus columbianus bewickii) using different methods, analysing nearly 50 years of resighting data (1970-2017). In this period the wintering area of the Bewick's swans shifted eastwards ('short-stopping') at a rate of ~13 km/year, thereby shortening individual migration distance on an average by 353 km. Concurrently, the time spent at the wintering grounds has reduced ('short-staying') by ~38 days since 1989. We show that individuals are consistent in their migratory timing in winter, indicating that the frequency of individuals with different migratory schedules has changed over time (a generational shift). In contrast, for short-stopping we found evidence for both individual plasticity (individuals decrease their migration distances over their lifetime) and generational shift. Additional analysis of swan resightings with temperature data showed that, throughout the winter, Bewick's swans frequent areas where air temperatures are c. 5.5°C. These areas have also shifted eastwards over time, hinting that climate warming is a contributing factor behind the observed changes in the swans' distribution. The occurrence of winter short-stopping and short-staying suggests that this species is to some extent able to adjust to climate warming, but benefits or repercussions at other times of the annual cycle need to be assessed. Furthermore, these phenomena could lead to changes in abundance in certain areas, with resulting monitoring and conservation implications. Understanding the processes and driving mechanisms behind population changes therefore is important for population management, both locally and across the species range.

Releases of Asian houbara must respect genetic and geographic origin to preserve inherited migration behaviour: evidence from a translocation experiment

Maintaining appropriate migratory strategies is important in conservation; however, translocations of migratory animals may alter locally evolved migration behaviours of recipient populations if these are different and heritable. We used satellite telemetry and experimental translocation to quantify differences and assess heritability in migration behaviours between three migratory Asian houbara (Chlamydotis macqueenii) breeding populations (640 km range across eastern, central and western Uzbekistan). Adults from the eastern population migrated twice as far (mean = 1184 km ± 44 s.e.) as the western population (656 km ± 183 s.e.) and showed significantly less variation in migration distance than the central population (1030 km ± 127 s.e.). The western and central populations wintered significantly further north (mean: +8.32° N ± 1.70 s.e. and +4.19° N ± 1.16 s.e., respectively) and the central population further west (-3.47° E ± 1.46 s.e.) than individuals from the eastern population. These differences could arise from a differing innate drive, or through learnt facultative responses to topography, filtered by survival. Translocated birds from the eastern population (wild-laid and captive-reared, n = 5) migrated further than adults from either western or central recipient populations, particularly in their second migration year. Translocated birds continued migrating south past suitable wintering grounds used by the recipient populations despite having to negotiate mountain obstacles. Together, this suggests a considerable conserved heritable migratory component with local adaptation at a fine geographic scale. Surviving translocated individuals returned to their release site, suggesting that continued translocations would lead to introgression of the heritable component and risk altering recipient migration patterns. Conservation biologists considering translocation interventions for migratory populations should evaluate potential genetic components of migratory behaviour.

Individual variation in migratory behavior in a subarctic partial migrant shorebird

Migratory behavior can differ markedly amongst individuals within populations or species. Understanding the factors influencing this variation is key to understanding how current environmental changes might influence migratory propensity and the distribution and abundance of migratory species across their range. Here, we investigate variation in migratory behavior of the partially migratory Eurasian oystercatcher (Haematopus ostralegus) population breeding in Iceland. We use the resightings of color-ringed adults and stable isotopes to determine whether individuals migrate or remain in Iceland during winter and test whether individual migratory strategies vary in relation to sex, body size, and breeding location. We also explore individual consistency in migratory strategy and test whether assortative mating with respect to strategy occurs in this population. The proportion of migrants and residents varied greatly across breeding locations but not with respect to sex or body size. Individuals were consistent in migratory strategy between years and there was no evidence of assortative mating by migratory strategy. We use these findings to explore factors underlying the evolution and maintenance of partial migration at high latitudes.

Linking behaviour to dynamics of populations and communities: application of novel approaches in behavioural ecology to conservation

The impact of environmental change on the reproduction and survival of wildlife is often behaviourally mediated, placing behavioural ecology in a central position to quantify population- and community-level consequences of anthropogenic threats to biodiversity. This theme issue demonstrates how recent conceptual and methodological advances in the discipline are applied to inform conservation. The issue highlights how the focus in behavioural ecology on understanding variation in behaviour between individuals, rather than just measuring the population mean, is critical to explaining demographic stochasticity and thereby reducing fuzziness of population models. The contributions also show the importance of knowing the mechanisms by which behaviour is achieved, i.e. the role of learning, reasoning and instincts, in order to understand how behaviours change in human-modified environments, where their function is less likely to be adaptive. More recent work has thus abandoned the 'adaptationist' paradigm of early behavioural ecology and increasingly measures evolutionary processes directly by quantifying selection gradients and phenotypic plasticity. To support quantitative predictions at the population and community levels, a rich arsenal of modelling techniques has developed, and interdisciplinary approaches show promising prospects for predicting the effectiveness of alternative management options, with the social sciences, movement ecology and epidemiology particularly pertinent. The theme issue furthermore explores the relevance of behaviour for global threat assessment, and practical advice is given as to how behavioural ecologists can augment their conservation impact by carefully selecting and promoting their study systems, and increasing their engagement with local communities, natural resource managers and policy-makers. Its aim to uncover the nuts and bolts of how natural systems work positions behavioural ecology squarely in the heart of conservation biology, where its perspective offers an all-important complement to more descriptive 'big-picture' approaches to priority setting. This article is part of the theme issue 'Linking behaviour to dynamics of populations and communities: application of novel approaches in behavioural ecology to conservation'.

Behavioural valuation of landscapes using movement data

Wildlife tracking is one of the most frequently employed approaches to monitor and study wildlife populations. To date, the application of tracking data to applied objectives has focused largely on the intensity of use by an animal in a location or the type of habitat. While this has provided valuable insights and advanced spatial wildlife management, such interpretation of tracking data does not capture the complexity of spatio-temporal processes inherent to animal behaviour and represented in the movement path. Here, we discuss current and emerging approaches to estimate the behavioural value of spatial locations using movement data, focusing on the nexus of conservation behaviour and movement ecology that can amplify the application of animal tracking research to contemporary conservation challenges. We highlight the importance of applying behavioural ecological approaches to the analysis of tracking data and discuss the utility of comparative approaches, optimization theory and economic valuation to gain understanding of movement strategies and gauge population-level processes. First, we discuss innovations in the most fundamental movement-based valuation of landscapes, the intensity of use of a location, namely dissecting temporal dynamics in and means by which to weight the intensity of use. We then expand our discussion to three less common currencies for behavioural valuation of landscapes, namely the assessment of the functional (i.e. what an individual is doing at a location), structural (i.e. how a location relates to use of the broader landscape) and fitness (i.e. the return from using a location) value of a location. Strengthening the behavioural theoretical underpinnings of movement ecology research promises to provide a deeper, mechanistic understanding of animal movement that can lead to unprecedented insights into the interaction between landscapes and animal behaviour and advance the application of movement research to conservation challenges.

This article is part of the theme issue ‘Linking behaviour to dynamics of populations and communities: application of novel approaches in behavioural ecology to conservation’.