Control-relevant models for glucose control using a priori patient characteristics

Empirical pharmacodynamic model of phenylephrine and intrathecal bupivacaine for mean arterial pressure prediction in obstetric patients presenting for elective cesarean delivery under spinal anesthesia

Cesarean delivery under spinal anesthesia may be complicated by hypotension in up to 80% of the patients. The response to standard-of-care prophylactic phenylephrine infusion varies, and there is little guidance on achieving optimal blood pressure control. In this work, we developed a data-driven pharmacodynamic relationship between intravenous phenylephrine, intrathecal bupivacaine, and maternal mean arterial pressure (MAP) in patients presenting for cesarean delivery. In this single-center cohort study, secondary use data were available for normotensive patients presenting for cesarean delivery. Intraoperative MAP, intrathecal bupivacaine, and intravenous phenylephrine doses were recorded prospectively every minute. The recorded data were used to identify and confirm a time series (Autoregressive with Exogenous Input (ARX)) model for predicting the MAP using MATLAB 2021a System Identification Toolbox and the Prediction Error Method. An independent model validation was conducted using a second dataset collected after the model fitting stage. Model identification was performed on 172 patients, using 70% for model fitting and 30% for testing. The final ARX model, which takes the past three data points to make predictions, performed 48.9% better than a mean constant model for one-minute ahead MAP predictions with a root mean square error (RMSE) of 3.6 ± 1.3 mmHg. Similar performance was observed on independent validation using a second dataset (N = 84), yielding an RMSE of 4.2 ± 1.6 mmHg for one-minute ahead MAP predictions. Our ARX model showed good performance at up to a three-minute prediction horizon and could be used for future decision support applications to guide phenylephrine dose titration.

Hybrid Control Policy for Artificial Pancreas via Ensemble Deep Reinforcement Learning

OBJECTIVE

The artificial pancreas (AP) shows promise for closed-loop glucose control in type 1 diabetes mellitus (T1DM). However, designing effective control policies for the AP remains challenging due to complex physiological processes, delayed insulin response, and inaccurate glucose measurements. While model predictive control (MPC) offers safety and stability through the dynamic model and safety constraints, it lacks individualization and is adversely affected by unannounced meals. Conversely, deep reinforcement learning (DRL) provides personalized and adaptive strategies but struggles with distribution shifts and substantial data requirements.

METHODS

We propose a hybrid control policy for the artificial pancreas (HyCPAP) to address the above challenges. HyCPAP combines an MPC policy with an ensemble DRL policy, leveraging the strengths of both policies while compensating for their respective limitations. To facilitate faster deployment of AP systems in real-world settings, we further incorporate meta-learning techniques into HyCPAP, leveraging previous experience and patient-shared knowledge to enable fast adaptation to new patients with limited available data.

RESULTS

We conduct extensive experiments using the UVA/Padova T1DM simulator across five scenarios. Our approaches achieve the highest percentage of time spent in the desired range and the lowest occurrences of hypoglycemia.

CONCLUSION

The results clearly demonstrate the superiority of our methods for closed-loop glucose management in individuals with T1DM.

SIGNIFICANCE

The study presents novel control policies for AP systems, affirming their great potential for efficient closed-loop glucose control.

Blood Glucose Prediction from Nutrition Analytics in Type 1 Diabetes: A Review

INTRODUCTION

Type 1 Diabetes (T1D) affects over 9 million worldwide and necessitates meticulous self-management for blood glucose (BG) control. Utilizing BG prediction technology allows for increased BG control and a reduction in the diabetes burden caused by self-management requirements. This paper reviews BG prediction models in T1D, which include nutritional components.

METHOD

A systematic search, utilizing the PRISMA guidelines, identified articles focusing on BG prediction algorithms for T1D that incorporate nutritional variables. Eligible studies were screened and analyzed for model type, inclusion of additional aspects in the model, prediction horizon, patient population, inputs, and accuracy.

RESULTS

The study categorizes 138 blood glucose prediction models into data-driven (54%), physiological (14%), and hybrid (33%) types. Prediction horizons of ≤30 min are used in 36% of models, 31-60 min in 34%, 61-90 min in 11%, 91-120 min in 10%, and >120 min in 9%. Neural networks are the most used data-driven technique (47%), and simple carbohydrate intake is commonly included in models (data-driven: 72%, physiological: 52%, hybrid: 67%). Real or free-living data are predominantly used (83%).

CONCLUSION

The primary goal of blood glucose prediction in T1D is to enable informed decisions and maintain safe BG levels, considering the impact of all nutrients for meal planning and clinical relevance.

Glucose Rate-of-Change and Insulin-on-Board Jointly Weighted Zone Model Predictive Control

We present design and evaluation of closed-loop insulin delivery using zone model predictive control (MPC) featuring an adaptive weighting scheme to address prolonged hyperglycemia due to changes in insulin sensitivity, underdelivery from profile mismatch, and meal composition. In the MPC cost function, the penalty on predicted glucose deviation from the upper zone boundary is weighted by a joint function of predicted glucose rate-of-change (ROC) and insulin-on-board (IOB). The asymmetric weighting gradually increases when glucose ROC and IOB were jointly low, independent of glucose magnitude, to limit hyperglycemia while aggressively reduces for negative glucose ROC to avoid hypoglycemia. The proposed controller was evaluated using two simulation scenarios: an induced resistance scenario and a nominal scenario to highlight the performance over a reference zone MPC with glucose ROC weighting only. The continuous adaption scheme resulted in consistent improvement for the entire glucose range without incurring additional risk of hypoglycemia. For the induced resistance and no feedforward bolus scenario, the percent time in 70-180 mg/dL was higher (53.5% versus 48.9%, p<0.001) with larger improvement in the overnight percent time in tighter glucose range 70-140 mg/dL (70.9% versus 52.9%, p<0.001). The results from extensive simulations, as well as clinical validation in three different outpatient studies demonstrate the utility and safety of the proposed zone MPC.

In silico design and validation of a time-varying PID controller for an artificial pancreas with intraperitoneal insulin delivery and glucose sensing

Type 1 diabetes (T1D) is a chronic autoimmune disease featured by the loss of beta cell function and the need for lifetime insulin replacement. Over the recent decade, the use of automated insulin delivery systems (AID) has shifted the paradigm of treatment: the availability of continuous subcutaneous (SC) glucose sensors to guide SC insulin delivery through a control algorithm has allowed, for the first time, to reduce the daily burden of the disease as well as to abate the risk for hypoglycemia. AID use is still limited by individual acceptance, local availability, coverage, and expertise. A major drawback of SC insulin delivery is the need for meal announcement and the peripheral hyperinsulinemia that, over time, contributes to macrovascular complications. Inpatient trials using intraperitoneal (IP) insulin pumps have demonstrated that glycemic control can be improved without meal announcement due to the faster insulin delivery through the peritoneal space. This calls for novel control algorithms able to account for the specificities of IP insulin kinetics. Recently, our group described a two-compartment model of IP insulin kinetics demonstrating that the peritoneal space acts as a virtual compartment and IP insulin delivery is virtually intraportal (intrahepatic), thus closely mimicking the physiology of insulin secretion. The FDA-accepted T1D simulator for SC insulin delivery and sensing has been updated for IP insulin delivery and sensing. Herein, we design and validate-in silico-a time-varying proportional integrative derivative controller to guide IP insulin delivery in a fully closed-loop mode without meal announcement.

Near-optimal feedback control for postprandial glucose regulation in type 1 diabetes

This paper is focused on feedback control of postprandial glucose levels for patients with type 1 Diabetes Mellitus. There are two important limitations that make this a challenging problem. First, the slow subcutaneous insulin pharmacokinetics that introduces a significant lag into the control loop. Second, the positivity constraint on the control action, meaning that it is not possible to remove insulin from the body. In this paper, both issues are explicitly considered in the design process using the internal model control framework, to derive a near-optimal feedback controller. Optimality is understood here as minimizing the blood glucose peak after a meal intake and, at the same time, preventing glucose values below a prescribed threshold. It is shown how the proposed controller approaches the optimal closed-loop performance as a limit case. The theoretical results are supported by a numerical example and the feasibility of the overall strategy under uncertainties is illustrated using an extended version UVa/Padova metabolic simulator.

Control-Relevant Adaptive Personalized Modeling From Limited Clinical Data for Precise Warfarin Management

Warfarin is a challenging drug to administer due to the narrow therapeutic index of the International Normalized Ratio (INR), the inter- and intra-variability of patients, limited clinical data, genetics, and the effects of other medications. Goal: To predict the optimal warfarin dosage in the presence of the aforementioned challenges, we present an adaptive individualized modeling framework based on model (In)validation and semi-blind robust system identification. The model (In)validation technique adapts the identified individualized patient model according to the change in the patient's status to ensure the model's suitability for prediction and controller design. Results: To implement the proposed adaptive modeling framework, the clinical data of warfarin-INR of forty-four patients has been collected at the Robley Rex Veterans Administration Medical Center, Louisville. The proposed algorithm is compared with recursive ARX and ARMAX model identification methods. The results of identified models using one-step-ahead prediction and minimum mean squared analysis (MMSE) show that the proposed framework effectively predicts the warfarin dosage to keep the INR values within the desired range and adapt the individualized patient model to exhibit the true status of the patient throughout treatment. Conclusion: This paper proposes an adaptive personalized patient modeling framework from limited patientspecific clinical data. It is shown by rigorous simulations that the proposed framework can accurately predict a patient's doseresponse characteristics and it can alert the clinician whenever identified models are no longer suitable for prediction and adapt the model to the current status of the patient to reduce the prediction error.

Zone-MPC Automated Insulin Delivery Algorithm Tuned for Pregnancy Complicated by Type 1 Diabetes

Type 1 diabetes (T1D) increases the risk for pregnancy complications. Increased time in the pregnancy glucose target range (63-140 mg/dL as suggested by clinical guidelines) is associated with improved pregnancy outcomes that underscores the need for tight glycemic control. While closed-loop control is highly effective in regulating blood glucose levels in individuals with T1D, its use during pregnancy requires adjustments to meet the tight glycemic control and changing insulin requirements with advancing gestation. In this paper, we tailor a zone model predictive controller (zone-MPC), an optimization-based control strategy that uses model predictions, for use during pregnancy and verify its robustness in-silico through a broad range of scenarios. We customize the existing zone-MPC to satisfy pregnancy-specific glucose control objectives by having (i) lower target glycemic zones (i.e., 80-110 mg/dL daytime and 80-100 mg/dL overnight), (ii) more assertive correction bolus for hyperglycemia, and (iii) a control strategy that results in more aggressive postprandial insulin delivery to keep glucose within the target zone. The emphasis is on leveraging the flexible design of zone-MPC to obtain a controller that satisfies glycemic outcomes recommended for pregnancy based on clinical insight. To verify this pregnancy-specific zone-MPC design, we use the UVA/Padova simulator and conduct in-silico experiments on 10 subjects over 13 scenarios ranging from scenarios with ideal metabolic and treatment parameters for pregnancy to extreme scenarios with such parameters that are highly deviant from the ideal. All scenarios had three meals per day and each meal had 40 grams of carbohydrates. Across 13 scenarios, pregnancy-specific zone-MPC led to a 10.3 ± 5.3% increase in the time in pregnancy target range (baseline zone-MPC: 70.6 ± 15.0%, pregnancy-specific zone-MPC: 80.8 ± 11.3%, p < 0.001) and a 10.7 ± 4.8% reduction in the time above the target range (baseline zone-MPC: 29.0 ± 15.4%, pregnancy-specific zone-MPC: 18.3 ± 12.0, p < 0.001). There was no significant difference in the time below range between the controllers (baseline zone-MPC: 0.5 ± 1.2%, pregnancy-specific zone-MPC: 3.5 ± 1.9%, p = 0.1). The extensive simulation results show improved performance in the pregnancy target range with pregnancy-specific zone MPC, suggest robustness of the zone-MPC in tight glucose control scenarios, and emphasize the need for customized glucose control systems for pregnancy.

Towards the Integration of an Islet-Based Biosensor in Closed-Loop Therapies for Patients With Type 1 Diabetes

In diabetes mellitus (DM) treatment, Continuous Glucose Monitoring (CGM) linked with insulin delivery becomes the main strategy to improve therapeutic outcomes and quality of patients' lives. However, Blood Glucose (BG) regulation with CGM is still hampered by limitations of algorithms and glucose sensors. Regarding sensor technology, current electrochemical glucose sensors do not capture the full spectrum of other physiological signals, i.e., lipids, amino acids or hormones, relaying the general body status. Regarding algorithms, variability between and within patients remains the main challenge for optimal BG regulation in closed-loop therapies. This work highlights the simulation benefits to test new sensing and control paradigms which address the previous shortcomings for Type 1 Diabetes (T1D) closed-loop therapies. The UVA/Padova T1DM Simulator is the core element here, which is a computer model of the human metabolic system based on glucose-insulin dynamics in T1D patients. That simulator is approved by the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) as an alternative for pre-clinical testing of new devices and closed-loop algorithms. To overcome the limitation of standard glucose sensors, the concept of an islet-based biosensor, which could integrate multiple physiological signals through electrical activity measurement, is assessed here in a closed-loop insulin therapy. This investigation has been addressed by an interdisciplinary consortium, from endocrinology to biology, electrophysiology, bio-electronics and control theory. In parallel to the development of an islet-based closed-loop, it also investigates the benefits of robust control theory against the natural variability within a patient population. Using 4 meal scenarios, numerous simulation campaigns were conducted. The analysis of their results then introduces a discussion on the potential benefits of an Artificial Pancreas (AP) system associating the islet-based biosensor with robust algorithms.

Embedded Model Predictive Control for a Wearable Artificial Pancreas

While artificial pancreas (AP) systems are expected to improve the quality of life among people with type 1 diabetes mellitus (T1DM), the design of convenient systems that optimize the user experience, especially for those with active lifestyles, such as children and adolescents, still remains an open research question. In this work, we introduce an embeddable design and implementation of model predictive control (MPC) of AP systems for people with T1DM that significantly reduces the weight and on-body footprint of the AP system. The embeddable controller is based on a zone MPC that has been evaluated in multiple clinical studies. The proposed embedded zone MPC features a simpler design of the periodic safe zone in the cost function and the utilization of state-of-the-art alternating minimization algorithms for solving the convex programming problems inherent to MPC with linear models subject to convex constraints. Off-line closed-loop data generated by the FDA-accepted UVA/Padova simulator is used to select an optimization algorithm and corresponding tuning parameters. Through hardware-in-the-loop in silico results on a limited-resource Arduino Zero (Feather M0) platform, we demonstrate the potential of the proposed embedded MPC. In spite of resource limitations, our embedded zone MPC manages to achieve comparable performance of that of the full-version zone MPC implemented in a 64-bit desktop for scenarios with/without meal-disturbance compensations. Metrics for performance comparison included median percent time in the euglycemic ([70, 180] mg/dL range) of 84.3% vs. 83.1% for announced meals, with an equivalence test yielding p = 0.0013 and 66.2% vs. 66.0% for unannounced meals with p = 0.0028.

Control-Oriented Model With Intra-Patient Variations for an Artificial Pancreas

In this work, a low-order model designed for glucose regulation in Type 1 Diabetes Mellitus (T1DM) is obtained from the UVA/Padova metabolic simulator. It captures not only the nonlinear behavior of the glucose-insulin system, but also intra-patient variations related to daily insulin sensitivity ( S_I) changes. To overcome the large inter-subject variability, the model can also be personalized based on a priori patient information. The structure is amenable for linear parameter varying (LPV) controller design, and represents the dynamics from the subcutaneous insulin input to the subcutaneous glucose output. The efficacy of this model is evaluated in comparison with a previous control-oriented model which in turn is an improvement of previous models. Both models are compared in terms of their open- and closed-loop differences with respect to the UVA/Padova model. The proposed model outperforms previous T1DM control-oriented models, which could potentially lead to more robust and reliable controllers for glycemia regulation.

Long-Term Glucose Forecasting Using a Physiological Model and Deconvolution of the Continuous Glucose Monitoring Signal

(1) Objective: Blood glucose forecasting in type 1 diabetes (T1D) management is a maturing field with numerous algorithms being published and a few of them having reached the commercialisation stage. However, accurate long-term glucose predictions (e.g., >60 min), which are usually needed in applications such as precision insulin dosing (e.g., an artificial pancreas), still remain a challenge. In this paper, we present a novel glucose forecasting algorithm that is well-suited for long-term prediction horizons. The proposed algorithm is currently being used as the core component of a modular safety system for an insulin dose recommender developed within the EU-funded PEPPER (Patient Empowerment through Predictive PERsonalised decision support) project. (2) Methods: The proposed blood glucose forecasting algorithm is based on a compartmental composite model of glucose-insulin dynamics, which uses a deconvolution technique applied to the continuous glucose monitoring (CGM) signal for state estimation. In addition to commonly employed inputs by glucose forecasting methods (i.e., CGM data, insulin, carbohydrates), the proposed algorithm allows the optional input of meal absorption information to enhance prediction accuracy. Clinical data corresponding to 10 adult subjects with T1D were used for evaluation purposes. In addition, in silico data obtained with a modified version of the UVa-Padova simulator was used to further evaluate the impact of accounting for meal absorption information on prediction accuracy. Finally, a comparison with two well-established glucose forecasting algorithms, the autoregressive exogenous (ARX) model and the latent variable-based statistical (LVX) model, was carried out. (3) Results: For prediction horizons beyond 60 min, the performance of the proposed physiological model-based (PM) algorithm is superior to that of the LVX and ARX algorithms. When comparing the performance of PM against the secondly ranked method (ARX) on a 120 min prediction horizon, the percentage improvement on prediction accuracy measured with the root mean square error, A-region of error grid analysis (EGA), and hypoglycaemia prediction calculated by the Matthews correlation coefficient, was 18.8 % , 17.9 % , and 80.9 % , respectively. Although showing a trend towards improvement, the addition of meal absorption information did not provide clinically significant improvements. (4) Conclusion: The proposed glucose forecasting algorithm is potentially well-suited for T1D management applications which require long-term glucose predictions.

A New Animal Model of Insulin-Glucose Dynamics in the Intraperitoneal Space Enhances Closed-Loop Control Performance

Current artificial pancreas systems (AP) operate via subcutaneous (SC) glucose sensing and SC insulin delivery. Due to slow diffusion and transport dynamics across the interstitial space, even the most sophisticated control algorithms in on-body AP systems cannot react fast enough to maintain tight glycemic control under the effect of exogenous glucose disturbances caused by ingesting meals or performing physical activity. Recent efforts made towards the development of an implantable AP have explored the utility of insulin infusion in the intraperitoneal (IP) space: a region within the abdominal cavity where the insulin-glucose kinetics are observed to be much more rapid than the SC space. In this paper, a series of canine experiments are used to determine the dynamic association between IP insulin boluses and plasma glucose levels. Data from these experiments are employed to construct a new mathematical model and to formulate a closed-loop control strategy to be deployed on an implantable AP. The potential of the proposed controller is demonstrated via in-silico experiments on an FDA-accepted benchmark cohort: the proposed design significantly outperforms a previous controller designed using artificial data (time in clinically acceptable glucose range: 97.3±1.5% vs. 90.1±5.6%). Furthermore, the robustness of the proposed closed-loop system to delays and noise in the measurement signal (for example, when glucose is sensed subcutaneously) and deleterious glycemic changes (such as sudden glucose decline due to physical activity) is investigated. The proposed model based on experimental canine data leads to the generation of more effective control algorithms and is a promising step towards fully automated and implantable artificial pancreas systems.

Design of an online-tuned model based compound controller for a fully automated artificial pancreas

This paper deals with the development of a control algorithm that can predict optimal insulin doses without patients' intervention in fully automated artificial pancreas system. An online-tuned model based compound controller comprising an online-tuned internal model control (IMC) algorithm and an enhanced IMC (eIMC) algorithm along with a meal detection module is proposed. Volterra models, used to develop IMC and eIMC algorithms, are developed online using recursive least squares (RLS) filter. The time domain kernels, computed online using RLS filter, are converted into frequency domain to obtain Volterra transfer function (VTF). VTFs are used to develop both IMC and eIMC algorithms. The compound controller is designed in such a way that eIMC predicts insulin doses when the glucose rate increase detector of meal detection module is positive, otherwise conventional IMC takes the control action. Experimental results show that the compound controller performs robustly in the presence of higher and irregular amounts of meal disturbances at random times, very high actuator and sensor noises and also with the variation in insulin sensitivity. The combination of compound control strategy and meal detection module compensates the shortcomings of both slow subcutaneous insulin action that causes postprandial hyperglycemia, and delayed peak of action that causes hypoglycaemia. Graphical Abstract A fully-automated artificial pancreas system containing glucose sensor, insulin pump and control algorithm. Block diagram showing the control algorithm i.e., online-tuned compound IMC comprising enhanced IMC, conventional IMC and meal detection module, developed in the present work.

Adaptive Zone Model Predictive Control of Artificial Pancreas Based on Glucose- and Velocity-Dependent Control Penalties

OBJECTIVE

Zone model predictive control (MPC) has been proven to be an efficient approach to closed-loop insulin delivery in clinical studies. In this paper, we aim to safely reduce mean glucose levels by proposing control penalty adaptation in the cost function of zone MPC.

METHODS

A zone MPC method with a dynamic cost function that updates its control penalty parameters in real time according to the predicted glucose and its rate of change is developed. The proposed method is evaluated on the entire 100-adult cohort of the FDA-accepted UVA/Padova T1DM simulator and compared with the zone MPC tested in an extended outpatient study.

RESULTS

For unannounced meals, the proposed method leads to statistically significant improvements in terms of mean glucose (153.8 mg/dL vs. 159.0 mg/dL; ) and percentage time in [70, 180] mg/dL ([Formula: see text] vs. [Formula: see text]; ) without increasing the risk of hypoglycemia. Performance for announced meals is similar to that obtained without adaptation. The proposed method also behaves properly and safely for scenarios of moderate meal-bolus and basal rate mismatches, as well as simulated unannounced exercise. Advisory-mode analysis based on clinical data indicates that the method can reduce glucose levels through suggesting additional safe amounts of insulin on top of those suggested by the zone MPC used in the study.

CONCLUSION

The proposed method leads to improved glucose control without increasing hypoglycemia risks.

SIGNIFICANCE

The results validate the feasibility of improving glucose regulation through glucose- and velocity-dependent control penalty adaptation in MPC design.

Velocity-weighting & velocity-penalty MPC of an artificial pancreas: Improved safety & performance

A novel Model Predictive Control (MPC) law for the closed-loop operation of an Artificial Pancreas (AP) to treat type 1 diabetes is proposed. The contribution of this paper is to simultaneously enhance both the safety and performance of an AP, by reducing the incidence of controller-induced hypoglycemia, and by promoting assertive hyperglycemia correction. This is achieved by integrating two MPC features separately introduced by the authors previously to independently improve the control performance with respect to these two coupled issues. Velocity-weighting MPC reduces the occurrence of controller-induced hypoglycemia. Velocity-penalty MPC yields more effective hyperglycemia correction. Benefits of the proposed MPC law over the MPC strategy deployed in the authors' previous clinical trial campaign are demonstrated via a comprehensive in-silico analysis. The proposed MPC law was deployed in four distinct US Food & Drug Administration approved clinical trial campaigns, the most extensive of which involved 29 subjects each spending three months in closed-loop. The paper includes implementation details, an explanation of the state-dependent cost functions required for velocity-weighting and penalties, a discussion of the resulting nonlinear optimization problem, a description of the four clinical trial campaigns, and control-related trial highlights.

Intraperitoneal insulin delivery provides superior glycaemic regulation to subcutaneous insulin delivery in model predictive control-based fully-automated artificial pancreas in patients with type 1 diabetes: a pilot study

AIMS

To compare intraperitoneal (IP) to subcutaneous (SC) insulin delivery in an artificial pancreas (AP).

RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS

Ten adults with type 1 diabetes participated in a non-randomized, non-blinded sequential AP study using the same SC glucose sensing and Zone Model Predictive Control (ZMPC) algorithm adjusted for insulin clearance. On first admission, subjects underwent closed-loop control with SC delivery of a fast-acting insulin analogue for 24 hours. Following implantation of a DiaPort IP insulin delivery system, the identical 24-hour trial was performed with IP regular insulin delivery. The clinical protocol included 3 unannounced meals with 70, 40 and 70 g carbohydrate, respectively. Primary endpoint was time spent with blood glucose (BG) in the range of 80 to 140 mg/dL (4.4-7.7 mmol/L).

RESULTS

Percent of time spent within the 80 to 140 mg/dL range was significantly higher for IP delivery than for SC delivery: 39.8 ± 7.6 vs 25.6 ± 13.1 ( P = .03). Mean BG (mg/dL) and percent of time spent within the broader 70 to 180 mg/dL range were also significantly better for IP insulin: 151.0 ± 11.0 vs 190.0 ± 31.0 ( P = .004) and 65.7 ± 9.2 vs 43.9 ± 14.7 ( P = .001), respectively. Superiority of glucose control with IP insulin came from the reduced time spent in hyperglycaemia (>180 mg/dL: 32.4 ± 8.9 vs 53.5 ± 17.4, P = .014; >250 mg/dL: 5.9 ± 5.6 vs 23.0 ± 11.3, P = .0004). Higher daily doses of insulin (IU) were delivered with the IP route (43.7 ± 0.1 vs 32.3 ± 0.1, P < .001) with no increased percent time spent <70 mg/dL (IP: 2.5 ± 2.9 vs SC: 4.1 ± 5.3, P = .42).

CONCLUSIONS

Glycaemic regulation with fully-automated AP delivering IP insulin was superior to that with SC insulin delivery. This pilot study provides proof-of-concept for an AP system combining a ZMPC algorithm with IP insulin delivery.

A Methodology to Compare Insulin Dosing Recommendations in Real-Life Settings

BACKGROUND

We propose a methodology to analyze complex real-life glucose data in insulin pump users.

METHODS

Patients with type 1 diabetes (T1D) on insulin pumps were recruited from an academic endocrinology practice. Glucose data, insulin bolus (IB) amounts, and self-reported alcohol consumption and exercise events were collected for 30 days. Rules were developed to retrospectively compare IB recommendations from the insulin pump bolus calculator (IPBC) against recommendations from a proposed decision aid (PDA) and for assessing the PDA's recommendation for exercise and alcohol.

RESULTS

Data from 15 participants were analyzed. When considering instances where glucose was below target, the PDA recommended a smaller dose in 14%, but a larger dose in 13% and an equivalent IB in 73%. For glucose levels at target, the PDA suggested an equivalent IB in 58% compared to the subject's IPBC, but higher doses in 20% and lower in 22%. In events where postprandial glucose was higher than target, the PDA suggested higher doses in 25%, lower doses in 13%, and equivalent doses in 62%. In 64% of all alcohol events the PDA would have provided appropriate advice. In 75% of exercise events, the PDA appropriately advised an IB, a carbohydrate snack, or neither.

CONCLUSIONS

This study provides a methodology to systematically analyze real-life data generated by insulin pumps and allowed a preliminary analysis of the performance of the PDA for insulin dosing. Further testing of the methodological approach in a broader diabetes population and prospective testing of the PDA are needed.

A review of personalized blood glucose prediction strategies for T1DM patients

This paper presents a methodological review of models for predicting blood glucose (BG) concentration, risks and BG events. The surveyed models are classified into three categories, and they are presented in summary tables containing the most relevant data regarding the experimental setup for fitting and testing each model as well as the input signals and the performance metrics. Each category exhibits trends that are presented and discussed. This document aims to be a compact guide to determine the modeling options that are currently being exploited for personalized BG prediction.

Event-Triggered Model Predictive Control for Embedded Artificial Pancreas Systems

OBJECTIVE

The development of artificial pancreas (AP) technology for deployment in low-energy, embedded devices is contingent upon selecting an efficient control algorithm for regulating glucose in people with type 1 diabetes mellitus. In this paper, we aim to lower the energy consumption of the AP by reducing controller updates, that is, the number of times the decision-making algorithm is invoked to compute an appropriate insulin dose.

METHODS

Physiological insights into glucose management are leveraged to design an event-triggered model predictive controller (MPC) that operates efficiently, without compromising patient safety. The proposed event-triggered MPC is deployed on a wearable platform. Its robustness to latent hypoglycemia, model mismatch, and meal misinformation is tested, with and without meal announcement, on the full version of the US-FDA accepted UVA/Padova metabolic simulator.

RESULTS

The event-based controller remains on for 18 h of 41 h in closed loop with unannounced meals, while maintaining glucose in 70-180 mg/dL for 25 h, compared to 27 h for a standard MPC controller. With meal announcement, the time in 70-180 mg/dL is almost identical, with the controller operating a mere 25.88% of the time in comparison with a standard MPC.

CONCLUSION

A novel control architecture for AP systems enables safe glycemic regulation with reduced processor computations.

SIGNIFICANCE

Our proposed framework integrated seamlessly with a wide variety of popular MPC variants reported in AP research, customizes tradeoff between glycemic regulation and efficacy according to prior design specifications, and eliminates judicious prior selection of controller sampling times.

An Enhanced Model Predictive Control for the Artificial Pancreas Using a Confidence Index Based on Residual Analysis of Past Predictions

BACKGROUND

Model predictive control (MPC) performance depends on the accuracy of the prediction model implemented by the controller. Complex physiology and modeling limitations often prevent the ability to provide long and accurate glucose predictions, which results in the need to account for prediction errors.

METHOD

Optimal insulin dosage by Zone-MPC is calculated by solving an optimization problem in which a scalar index is minimized by penalizing relative input deviations and glucose predictions out of the reference zone. The controller's tuning parameters are the penalties on the input variable (insulin). Positive and negative relative inputs are penalized differently. A dynamic adaptation of the tuning parameters based on the accuracy of the model in recent history is implemented in this article and compared in silico to aggressive and conservative tunings of the same controller structure.

RESULTS

Similar average glucose and time in the safe glucose range (70-180 mg/dL) are achieved for the adaptive design and traditional controller configurations. However, percentage time under 70 mg/dL is significantly reduced, both for announced meals using bolus compensation and unannounced meals with a meal detection algorithm triggered bolus. No differences in the average insulin delivered were observed between the adaptive design and the conservative or aggressive tuning for the bolus strategy, and the adaptive controller delivered less insulin in the other scenario considered.

CONCLUSIONS

The adaptive strategy provides safe and effective glucose management as well as significant reduction of hypoglycemia events. No abnormal insulin delivery profiles were observed upon the application of the adaptive strategy.

Enhanced Model Predictive Control (eMPC) Strategy for Automated Glucose Control

Development of an effective artificial pancreas (AP) controller to deliver insulin autonomously to people with type 1 diabetes mellitus is a difficult task. In this paper, three enhancements to a clinically validated AP model predictive controller (MPC) are proposed that address major challenges facing automated blood glucose control, and are then evaluated by both in silico tests and clinical trials. First, the core model of insulin-blood glucose dynamics utilized in the MPC is expanded with a medically inspired personalization scheme to improve controller responses in the face of inter- and intra-individual variations in insulin sensitivity. Next, the asymmetric nature of the short-term consequences of hypoglycemia versus hyperglycemia is incorporated in an asymmetric weighting of the MPC cost function. Finally, an enhanced dynamic insulin-on-board algorithm is proposed to minimize the likelihood of controller-induced hypoglycemia following a rapid rise of blood glucose due to rescue carbohydrate load with accompanying insulin suspension. Each advancement is evaluated separately and in unison through in silico trials based on a new clinical protocol, which incorporates induced hyper- and hypoglycemia to test robustness. The advancements are also evaluated in an advisory mode (simulated) testing of clinical data. The combination of the three proposed advancements show statistically significantly improved performance over the nonpersonalized controller without any enhancements across all metrics, displaying increased time in the 70-180 mg/dL safe glycemic range (76.9 versus 68.8%) and the 80-140 mg/dL euglycemic range (48.1 versus 44.5%), without a statistically significant increase in instances of hypoglycemia. The proposed advancements provide safe control action for AP applications, personalizing and improving controller performance without the need for extensive model identification processes.

Periodic zone-MPC with asymmetric costs for outpatient-ready safety of an artificial pancreas to treat type 1 diabetes. AUTOMATICA : THE JOURNAL OF IFAC, THE INTERNATIONAL FEDERATION OF AUTOMATIC CONTROL 2016;71:237-246. [PMID: 27695131 PMCID: PMC5040369 DOI: 10.1016/j.automatica.2016.04.015]

A novel Model Predictive Control (MPC) law for an Artificial Pancreas (AP) to automatically deliver insulin to people with type 1 diabetes is proposed. The MPC law is an enhancement of the authors' zone-MPC approach that has successfully been trialled in-clinic, and targets the safe outpatient deployment of an AP. The MPC law controls blood-glucose levels to a diurnally time-dependent zone, and enforces diurnal, hard input constraints. The main algorithmic novelty is the use of asymmetric input costs in the MPC problem's objective function. This improves safety by facilitating the independent design of the controller's responses to hyperglycemia and hypoglycemia. The proposed controller performs predictive pump-suspension in the face of impending hypoglycemia, and subsequent predictive pump-resumption, based only on clinical needs and feedback. The proposed MPC strategy's benefits are demonstrated by in-silico studies as well as highlights from a US Food and Drug Administration approved clinical trial in which 32 subjects each completed two 25 hour closed-loop sessions employing the proposed MPC law.

Randomized Crossover Comparison of Personalized MPC and PID Control Algorithms for the Artificial Pancreas

OBJECTIVE

To evaluate two widely used control algorithms for an artificial pancreas (AP) under nonideal but comparable clinical conditions.

RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS

After a pilot safety and feasibility study (n = 10), closed-loop control (CLC) was evaluated in a randomized, crossover trial of 20 additional adults with type 1 diabetes. Personalized model predictive control (MPC) and proportional integral derivative (PID) algorithms were compared in supervised 27.5-h CLC sessions. Challenges included overnight control after a 65-g dinner, response to a 50-g breakfast, and response to an unannounced 65-g lunch. Boluses of announced dinner and breakfast meals were given at mealtime. The primary outcome was time in glucose range 70-180 mg/dL.

RESULTS

Mean time in range 70-180 mg/dL was greater for MPC than for PID (74.4 vs. 63.7%, P = 0.020). Mean glucose was also lower for MPC than PID during the entire trial duration (138 vs. 160 mg/dL, P = 0.012) and 5 h after the unannounced 65-g meal (181 vs. 220 mg/dL, P = 0.019). There was no significant difference in time with glucose <70 mg/dL throughout the trial period.

CONCLUSIONS

This first comprehensive study to compare MPC and PID control for the AP indicates that MPC performed particularly well, achieving nearly 75% time in the target range, including the unannounced meal. Although both forms of CLC provided safe and effective glucose management, MPC performed as well or better than PID in all metrics.

Reducing Glucose Variability Due to Meals and Postprandial Exercise in T1DM Using Switched LPV Control: In Silico Studies

BACKGROUND

Time-varying dynamics is one of the main issues for achieving safe blood glucose control in type 1 diabetes mellitus (T1DM) patients. In addition, the typical disturbances considered for controller design are meals, which increase the glucose level, and physical activity (PA), which increases the subject's sensitivity to insulin. In previous works the authors have applied a linear parameter-varying (LPV) control technique to manage unannounced meals.

METHODS

A switched LPV controller that switches between 3 LPV controllers, each with a different level of aggressiveness, is designed to further cope with both unannounced meals and postprandial PA. Thus, the proposed control strategy has a "standard" mode, an "aggressive" mode, and a "conservative" mode. The "standard" mode is designed to be applied most of the time, while the "aggressive" mode is designed to deal only with hyperglycemia situations. On the other hand, the "conservative" mode is focused on postprandial PA control.

RESULTS

An ad hoc simulator has been developed to test the proposed controller. This simulator is based on the distribution version of the UVA/Padova model and includes the effect of PA based on Schiavon.(1) The test results obtained when using this simulator indicate that the proposed control law substantially reduces the risk of hypoglycemia with the conservative strategy, while the risk of hyperglycemia is scarcely affected.

CONCLUSIONS

It is demonstrated that the announcement, or anticipation, of exercise is indispensable for letting a mono-hormonal artificial pancreas deal with the consequences of postprandial PA. In view of this the proposed controller allows switching into a conservative mode when notified of PA by the user.

Tackling problem nonlinearities & delays via asymmetric, state-dependent objective costs in MPC of an artificial pancreas

The design of a Model Predictive Control (MPC) law for an Artificial Pancreas (AP) that automatically delivers insulin to people with type 1 diabetes mellitus is considered. An MPC law was recently proposed that exploits the simplicity of linear dynamical models, but is in two ways a 'nonlinear' departure of standard linear MPC, while circumnavigating the complexity of cumbersome, fully nonlinear MPC approaches. The first of two issues focused on is the nonlinearity of the control problem, and it is demonstrated how this can be tackled via asymmetric objective functions. The second issue is controller induced hypoglycemia resulting from the large delay in actuation and sensing. The proposed MPC strategy employs an asymmetric, state-dependent objective function that leads to a nonlinear optimization problem. The result is an AP controller with significantly elevated safety and comparable control performance. The contribution of this paper is a detailed in-silico analysis of the proposed control law, and a clinical demonstration of the benefits of asymmetric objective functions.

Empirical Dynamic Model Identification for Blood-Glucose Dynamics in Response to Physical Activity

In this paper, the dynamic response of blood glucose concentration in response to physical activity of people with Type 1 Diabetes Mellitus (T1DM) is captured by subspace identification methods. Activity (input) and subcutaneous blood glucose measurements (output) are employed to construct a personalized prediction model through semi-definite programming. The model is calibrated and subsequently validated with non-overlapping data sets from 15 T1DM subjects. This preliminary clinical evaluation reveals the underlying linear dynamics between blood glucose concentration and physical activity. These types of models can enhance our capabilities of achieving tighter blood glucose control and early detection of hypoglycemia for people with T1DM.

A Model-Based Approach to Support Validation of Medical Cyber-Physical Systems

Medical Cyber-Physical Systems (MCPS) are context-aware, life-critical systems with patient safety as the main concern, demanding rigorous processes for validation to guarantee user requirement compliance and specification-oriented correctness. In this article, we propose a model-based approach for early validation of MCPS, focusing on promoting reusability and productivity. It enables system developers to build MCPS formal models based on a library of patient and medical device models, and simulate the MCPS to identify undesirable behaviors at design time. Our approach has been applied to three different clinical scenarios to evaluate its reusability potential for different contexts. We have also validated our approach through an empirical evaluation with developers to assess productivity and reusability. Finally, our models have been formally verified considering functional and safety requirements and model coverage.

Switched LPV Glucose Control in Type 1 Diabetes

OBJECTIVE

The purpose of this paper is to regulate the blood glucose level in Type 1 Diabetes Mellitus patients with a practical and flexible procedure that can switch among a finite number of distinct controllers, depending on the user's choice.

METHODS

A switched linear parameter-varying controller with multiple switching regions, related to hypo-, hyper-, and euglycemia situations, is designed. The key feature is to arrange the controller into a framework that provides stability and performance guaranty.

RESULTS

The closed-loop performance is tested on the complete in silico adult cohort of the UVA/Padova metabolic simulator, which has been accepted by the U.S. Food and Drug Administration in lieu of animal trials. The outcome produces comparable or improved results with respect to previous works.

CONCLUSION

The strategy is practical because it is based on a model tuned only with a priori patient information in order to cover the interpatient uncertainty. Results confirm that this control structure yields tangible improvements in minimizing risks of hyper- and hypoglycemia in scenarios with unannounced meals.

SIGNIFICANCE

This flexible procedure opens the possibility of taking into account, at the design stage, unannounced meals and/or patients' physical exercise.

Velocity-weighting to prevent controller-induced hypoglycemia in MPC of an artificial pancreas to treat T1DM

The design of a Model Predictive Control (MPC) strategy for the closed-loop operation of an Artificial Pancreas (AP) to treat type 1 diabetes mellitus is considered. The contribution of this paper is to propose a velocity-weighting mechanism, within an MPC problem's cost function, that facilitates penalizing predicted hyperglycemic blood-glucose excursions based on the predicted blood-glucose levels' rates of change. The method provides the control designer some freedom for independently shaping the AP's uphill versus downhill responses to hyperglycemic excursions; of particular emphasis in this paper is the downhill response. The proposal aims to tackle the dangerous issue of controller-induced hypoglycemia following large hyperglycemic excursions, e.g., after meals, that results in part due to the large delays of subcutaneous glucose sensing and subcutaneous insulin infusion - the case considered here. The efficacy of the proposed approach is demonstrated using the University of Virginia/Padova metabolic simulator with both unannounced and announced meal scenarios.

Design and Evaluation of a Robust PID Controller for a Fully Implantable Artificial Pancreas

Treatment of type 1 diabetes mellitus could be greatly improved by applying a closed-loop control strategy to insulin delivery, also known as an artificial pancreas (AP). In this work, we outline the design of a fully implantable AP using intraperitoneal (IP) insulin delivery and glucose sensing. The design process utilizes the rapid glucose sensing and insulin action offered by the IP space to tune a PID controller with insulin feedback to provide safe and effective insulin delivery. The controller was tuned to meet robust performance and stability specifications. An anti-reset windup strategy was introduced to prevent dangerous undershoot toward hypoglycemia after a large meal disturbance. The final controller design achieved 78% of time within the tight glycemic range of 80-140 mg/dL, with no time spent in hypoglycemia. The next step is to test this controller design in an animal model to evaluate the in vivo performance.

Clinical results of an automated artificial pancreas using technosphere inhaled insulin to mimic first-phase insulin secretion

OBJECTIVE

The purpose of this study was to investigate whether or not adding a fixed preprandial dose of inhaled insulin to a fully automated closed loop artificial pancreas would improve the postprandial glucose control without adding an increased risk of hypoglycemia.

RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS

Nine subjects with T1DM were recruited for the study. The patients were on closed-loop control for 24 hours starting around 4:30 pm. Mixed meals (~50 g CHO) were given at 6:30 pm and 7:00 am the following day. For the treatment group each meal was preceded by the inhalation of one 10 U dose of Technosphere Insulin (TI). Subcutaneous insulin delivery was controlled by a zone model predictive control algorithm (zone-MPC). At 11:00 am, the patient exercised for 30 ± 5 minutes at 50% of predicted heart rate reserve.

RESULTS

The use of TI resulted in increasing the median percentage time in range (70-180 mg/dl, BG) during the 5-hour postprandial period by 21.6% (81.6% and 60% in the with/without TI cases, respectively, P = .06) and reducing the median postprandial glucose peak by 33 mg/dl (172 mg/dl and 205 mg/dl in the with and without TI cases, respectively, P = .004). The median percentage time in range 80-140 mg/dl during the entire study period was 67.5% as compared to percentage time in range without the use of TI of 55.2% (P = .03).

CONCLUSIONS

Adding preprandial TI (See video supplement) to an automated closed-loop AP system resulted in superior postprandial control as demonstrated by lower postprandial glucose exposure without addition hypoglycemia.

In Silico Closed-Loop Control Validation Studies for Optimal Insulin Delivery in Type 1 Diabetes

This study presents a general closed-loop control strategy for optimal insulin delivery in type 1 Diabetes Mellitus (T1DM). The proposed control strategy aims toward an individualized optimal insulin delivery that consists of a patient-specific model predictive controller, a state estimator, a personalized scheduling level, and an open-loop optimization problem subjected to patient-specific process model and constraints. This control strategy can be also modified to address the case of limited patient data availability resulting in an "approximation" control strategy. Both strategies are validated in silico in the presence of predefined and unknown meal disturbances using both a novel mathematical model of glucose-insulin interactions and the UVa/Padova Simulator model as a virtual patient. The robustness of the control performance is evaluated under several conditions such as skipped meals, variability in the meal time, and metabolic uncertainty. The simulation results of the closed-loop validation studies indicate that the proposed control strategies can potentially achieve improved glycaemic control.

Moving-horizon-like state estimation via continuous glucose monitor feedback in MPC of an artificial pancreas for type 1 diabetes

An extension of a novel state estimation scheme is presented. The proposed method is developed for model predictive control (MPC) of an artificial pancreas for automatic insulin delivery to people with type 1 diabetes mellitus; specifically, glycemia control based on feedback by a continuous glucose monitor. The state estimation strategy is akin to moving-horizon estimation, but effectively exploits knowledge of sensor recalibrations, ameliorates the effects of delays between measurements and the controller call, and accommodates irregularly sampled output measurements. The method performs a function fit and a sampling action to synthesize a mock output trajectory for constructing the state. In this paper the structure of the fitted function prototype is divorced from the structure of the function that is sampled, facilitating the strategic elimination of prediction artifacts that are not observed in the actual plant. The proposed estimation strategy is demonstrated using clinical data collected by a Dexcom G4 Platinum continuous glucose monitor.

Design of an Artificial Pancreas using Zone Model Predictive Control with a Moving Horizon State Estimator

A zone model predictive control (zone-MPC) algorithm that utilizes the Moving Horizon State Estimator (MHSE) is presented. The control application is an artificial pancreas for treating people with type 1 diabetes mellitus. During the meal challenge, the prediction quality of the zone-MPC algorithm with the MHSE was significantly better than when using the current Luenberger observer to provide the state estimate. Consequently, the controller using the MHSE rejected the meal disturbance faster and without inducing extra hypoglycemia risk (e.g., lower postprandial blood glucose peak by 10 mg/dL and higher postprandial minimum blood glucose by 11 mg/dL). The faster rejection of the meal disturbance led to a longer time in the clinically accepted safe region (70-180 mg/dL) by 13%, and this may reduce the likelihood of the complications related to type 1 diabetes mellitus.

Design and in silico evaluation of an intraperitoneal-subcutaneous (IP-SC) artificial pancreas

Prandial glucose regulation is a major challenge for the artificial pancreas using subcutaneous insulin (without a feedforward bolus) due to insulin's slow absorption-peak (50-60 min). Intraperitoneal insulin, with a fast absorption peak (20-25 min), has been suggested as an alternative to address these limitations. An artificial pancreas using intraperitoneal insulin was designed and evaluated on 100 in silico subjects and compared with two designs using subcutaneous insulin with and without a feedforward bolus, following the three meal (40-70 g-carbohydrates) evaluation protocol. The design using intraperitoneal insulin resulted in a significantly lower postprandial blood glucose peak (38 mg/dL) and longer time in the clinically accepted region (13%) compared to the design using subcutaneous insulin without a feedforward bolus and comparable results to a subcutaneous feedforward bolus design. This superior regulation with minimal user interaction may improve the quality of life for people with type 1 diabetes mellitus.

State Estimation with Sensor Recalibrations and Asynchronous Measurements for MPC of an Artificial Pancreas to Treat T1DM

A novel state estimation scheme is proposed for use in Model Predictive Control (MPC) of an artificial pancreas based on Continuous Glucose Monitor (CGM) feedback, for treating type 1 diabetes mellitus. The performance of MPC strategies heavily depends on the initial condition of the predictions, typically characterized by a state estimator. Commonly employed Luenberger-observers and Kalman-filters are effective much of the time, but suffer limitations. Three particular limitations are tackled by the proposed approach. First, CGM recalibrations, step changes that cause highly dynamic responses in recursive state estimators, are accommodated in a graceful manner. Second, the proposed strategy is not affected by CGM measurements that are asynchronous, i.e., neither of fixed sample-period, nor of a sample-period that is equal to the controller's. Third, the proposal suffers no offsets due to plant-model mismatches. The proposed approach is based on moving-horizon optimization.

Reducing risks in type 1 diabetes using H∞ control

A control scheme was designed in order to reduce the risks of hyperglycemia and hypoglycemia in type 1 diabetes mellitus (T1DM). This structure is composed of three main components: an H∞ robust controller, an insulin feedback loop (IFL), and a safety mechanism (SM). A control-relevant model that is employed to design the robust controller is identified. The identification procedure is based on the distribution version of the UVA/Padova metabolic simulator using the simulation adult cohort. The SM prevents dangerous scenarios by acting upon a prediction of future glucose levels, and the IFL modifies the loop gain in order to reduce postprandial hypoglycemia risks. The procedure is tested on the complete alic>in silico adult cohort of the UVA/Padova metabolic simulator, which has been accepted by the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) in lieu of animal trials.

The artificial pancreas: current status and future prospects in the management of diabetes

Recent advances in insulins, insulin pumps, continuous glucose-monitoring systems, and control algorithms have resulted in an acceleration of progress in the development of artificial pancreas devices. This review discusses progress in the development of external systems that are based on subcutaneous drug delivery and subcutaneous continuous glucose monitoring. There are two major system-level approaches to achieving closed-loop control of blood glucose in diabetic individuals. The unihormonal approach uses insulin to reduce blood glucose and relies on complex safety mitigation algorithms to reduce the risk of hypoglycemia. The bihormonal approach uses both insulin to lower blood glucose and glucagon to raise blood glucose, and also relies on complex algorithms to provide for safety of the user. There are several major strategies for the design of control algorithms and supervision control for application to the artificial pancreas: proportional-integral-derivative, model predictive control, fuzzy logic, and safety supervision designs. Advances in artificial pancreas research in the first decade of this century were based on the ongoing computer revolution and miniaturization of electronic technology. The advent of modern smartphones has created the ability to utilize smartphone technology as the engineering centerpiece of an artificial pancreas. With these advances, an artificial or bionic pancreas is within reach.