DPVis: Visual Analytics With Hidden Markov Models for Disease Progression Pathways

A Multi-Level Task Framework for Event Sequence Analysis

Despite the development of numerous visual analytics tools for event sequence data across various domains, including but not limited to healthcare, digital marketing, and user behavior analysis, comparing these domain-specific investigations and transferring the results to new datasets and problem areas remain challenging. Task abstractions can help us go beyond domain-specific details, but existing visualization task abstractions are insufficient for event sequence visual analytics because they primarily focus on multivariate datasets and often overlook automated analytical techniques. To address this gap, we propose a domain-agnostic multi-level task framework for event sequence analytics, derived from an analysis of 58 papers that present event sequence visualization systems. Our framework consists of four levels: objective, intent, strategy, and technique. Overall objectives identify the main goals of analysis. Intents comprises five high-level approaches adopted at each analysis step: augment data, simplify data, configure data, configure visualization, and manage provenance. Each intent is accomplished through a number of strategies, for instance, data simplification can be achieved through aggregation, summarization, or segmentation. Finally, each strategy can be implemented by a set of techniques depending on the input and output components. We further show that each technique can be expressed through a quartet of action-input-output-criteria. We demonstrate the framework's descriptive power through case studies and discuss its similarities and differences with previous event sequence task taxonomies.

Investigating the impact of steroid dependence on gastrointestinal surgical outcomes from UK Biobank

Although corticosteroids are an important treatment for inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) patients, many subjects develop dependence, leading to serious long-term side effects. We applied causal inference analyses to investigate the length of steroid use on reoperations in IBD patients. We identified subjects in the UK Biobank general practice dataset with at least one major GI surgery and followed them for at least 5 years to evaluate subsequent operations. We defined steroid dependence as at least 12 weeks of use (vs. acute steroid use) prior to baseline surgery. Of the 363 subjects included in our analyses, 163 (45%) were prescribed steroids on or before baseline surgery, and of these (N = 125 of 163, 77%) were dependent. Additional analyses for time-dependent data on prescriptions found a link between prescription length and reoperation. Among UC subjects with acute use, the odds of reoperation were significantly lower (OR: 0.32, 95% CI: 0.0-0.73). Steroid dependence resulted in a delay of reoperation (median 1.2 vs. 2.3 years, P = 0.01). Our findings indicate that long-term steroid use tends to increase the need for reoperation, whereas short-term use may reduce it.

TrajVis: a visual clinical decision support system to translate artificial intelligence trajectory models in the precision management of chronic kidney disease

OBJECTIVE

Our objective is to develop and validate TrajVis, an interactive tool that assists clinicians in using artificial intelligence (AI) models to leverage patients' longitudinal electronic medical records (EMRs) for personalized precision management of chronic disease progression.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

We first perform requirement analysis with clinicians and data scientists to determine the visual analytics tasks of the TrajVis system as well as its design and functionalities. A graph AI model for chronic kidney disease (CKD) trajectory inference named DisEase PrOgression Trajectory (DEPOT) is used for system development and demonstration. TrajVis is implemented as a full-stack web application with synthetic EMR data derived from the Atrium Health Wake Forest Baptist Translational Data Warehouse and the Indiana Network for Patient Care research database. A case study with a nephrologist and a user experience survey of clinicians and data scientists are conducted to evaluate the TrajVis system.

RESULTS

The TrajVis clinical information system is composed of 4 panels: the Patient View for demographic and clinical information, the Trajectory View to visualize the DEPOT-derived CKD trajectories in latent space, the Clinical Indicator View to elucidate longitudinal patterns of clinical features and interpret DEPOT predictions, and the Analysis View to demonstrate personal CKD progression trajectories. System evaluations suggest that TrajVis supports clinicians in summarizing clinical data, identifying individualized risk predictors, and visualizing patient disease progression trajectories, overcoming the barriers of AI implementation in healthcare.

DISCUSSION

The TrajVis system provides a novel visualization solution which is complimentary to other risk estimators such as the Kidney Failure Risk Equations.

CONCLUSION

TrajVis bridges the gap between the fast-growing AI/ML modeling and the clinical use of such models for personalized and precision management of chronic diseases.

Human Activity Recognition with an HMM-Based Generative Model

Human activity recognition (HAR) has become an interesting topic in healthcare. This application is important in various domains, such as health monitoring, supporting elders, and disease diagnosis. Considering the increasing improvements in smart devices, large amounts of data are generated in our daily lives. In this work, we propose unsupervised, scaled, Dirichlet-based hidden Markov models to analyze human activities. Our motivation is that human activities have sequential patterns and hidden Markov models (HMMs) are some of the strongest statistical models used for modeling data with continuous flow. In this paper, we assume that emission probabilities in HMM follow a bounded-scaled Dirichlet distribution, which is a proper choice in modeling proportional data. To learn our model, we applied the variational inference approach. We used a publicly available dataset to evaluate the performance of our proposed model.

Survey on Visual Analysis of Event Sequence Data

Event sequence data record series of discrete events in the time order of occurrence. They are commonly observed in a variety of applications ranging from electronic health records to network logs, with the characteristics of large-scale, high-dimensional and heterogeneous. This high complexity of event sequence data makes it difficult for analysts to manually explore and find patterns, resulting in ever-increasing needs for computational and perceptual aids from visual analytics techniques to extract and communicate insights from event sequence datasets. In this paper, we review the state-of-the-art visual analytics approaches, characterize them with our proposed design space, and categorize them based on analytical tasks and applications. From our review of relevant literature, we have also identified several remaining research challenges and future research opportunities.

Islet Autoantibody Levels Differentiate Progression Trajectories in Individuals With Presymptomatic Type 1 Diabetes

In our previous data-driven analysis of evolving patterns of islet autoantibodies (IAb) against insulin (IAA), GAD (GADA), and islet antigen 2 (IA-2A), we discovered three trajectories, characterized according to multiple IAb (TR1), IAA (TR2), or GADA (TR3) as the first appearing autoantibodies. Here we examined the evolution of IAb levels within these trajectories in 2,145 IAb-positive participants followed from early life and compared those who progressed to type 1 diabetes (n = 643) with those remaining undiagnosed (n = 1,502). With use of thresholds determined by 5-year diabetes risk, four levels were defined for each IAb and overlaid onto each visit. In diagnosed participants, high IAA levels were seen in TR1 and TR2 at ages <3 years, whereas IAA remained at lower levels in the undiagnosed. Proportions of dwell times (total duration of follow-up at a given level) at the four IAb levels differed between the diagnosed and undiagnosed for GADA and IA-2A in all three trajectories (P < 0.001), but for IAA dwell times differed only within TR2 (P < 0.05). Overall, undiagnosed participants more frequently had low IAb levels and later appearance of IAb than diagnosed participants. In conclusion, while it has long been appreciated that the number of autoantibodies is an important predictor of type 1 diabetes, consideration of autoantibody levels within the three autoimmune trajectories improved differentiation of IAb-positive children who progressed to type 1 diabetes from those who did not.

Human-centered explainability for life sciences, healthcare, and medical informatics

Rapid advances in artificial intelligence (AI) and availability of biological, medical, and healthcare data have enabled the development of a wide variety of models. Significant success has been achieved in a wide range of fields, such as genomics, protein folding, disease diagnosis, imaging, and clinical tasks. Although widely used, the inherent opacity of deep AI models has brought criticism from the research field and little adoption in clinical practice. Concurrently, there has been a significant amount of research focused on making such methods more interpretable, reviewed here, but inherent critiques of such explainability in AI (XAI), its requirements, and concerns with fairness/robustness have hampered their real-world adoption. We here discuss how user-driven XAI can be made more useful for different healthcare stakeholders through the definition of three key personas-data scientists, clinical researchers, and clinicians-and present an overview of how different XAI approaches can address their needs. For illustration, we also walk through several research and clinical examples that take advantage of XAI open-source tools, including those that help enhance the explanation of the results through visualization. This perspective thus aims to provide a guidance tool for developing explainability solutions for healthcare by empowering both subject matter experts, providing them with a survey of available tools, and explainability developers, by providing examples of how such methods can influence in practice adoption of solutions.

Progression of type 1 diabetes from latency to symptomatic disease is predicted by distinct autoimmune trajectories

Development of islet autoimmunity precedes the onset of type 1 diabetes in children, however, the presence of autoantibodies does not necessarily lead to manifest disease and the onset of clinical symptoms is hard to predict. Here we show, by longitudinal sampling of islet autoantibodies (IAb) to insulin, glutamic acid decarboxylase and islet antigen-2 that disease progression follows distinct trajectories. Of the combined Type 1 Data Intelligence cohort of 24662 participants, 2172 individuals fulfill the criteria of two or more follow-up visits and IAb positivity at least once, with 652 progressing to type 1 diabetes during the 15 years course of the study. Our Continuous-Time Hidden Markov Models, that are developed to discover and visualize latent states based on the collected data and clinical characteristics of the patients, show that the health state of participants progresses from 11 distinct latent states as per three trajectories (TR1, TR2 and TR3), with associated 5-year cumulative diabetes-free survival of 40% (95% confidence interval [CI], 35% to 47%), 62% (95% CI, 57% to 67%), and 88% (95% CI, 85% to 91%), respectively (p < 0.0001). Age, sex, and HLA-DR status further refine the progression rates within trajectories, enabling clinically useful prediction of disease onset.

Presence of islet autoantibodies precedes the onset of type 1 diabetes but it does not predict whether and how fast symptomatic disease appears. Here authors present a model to predict and visualize progression to diabetes by using a large longitudinal data set on autoantibodies and clinical parameters as input.

A Visualization Approach for Monitoring Order Processing in E-Commerce Warehouse

The efficiency of warehouses is vital to e-commerce. Fast order processing at the warehouses ensures timely deliveries and improves customer satisfaction. However, monitoring, analyzing, and manipulating order processing in the warehouses in real time are challenging for traditional methods due to the sheer volume of incoming orders, the fuzzy definition of delayed order patterns, and the complex decision-making of order handling priorities. In this paper, we adopt a data-driven approach and propose OrderMonitor, a visual analytics system that assists warehouse managers in analyzing and improving order processing efficiency in real time based on streaming warehouse event data. Specifically, the order processing pipeline is visualized with a novel pipeline design based on the sedimentation metaphor to facilitate real-time order monitoring and suggest potentially abnormal orders. We also design a novel visualization that depicts order timelines based on the Gantt charts and Marey's graphs. Such a visualization helps the managers gain insights into the performance of order processing and find major blockers for delayed orders. Furthermore, an evaluating view is provided to assist users in inspecting order details and assigning priorities to improve the processing performance. The effectiveness of OrderMonitor is evaluated with two case studies on a real-world warehouse dataset.

Islet Autoimmunity and HLA Markers of Presymptomatic and Clinical Type 1 Diabetes: Joint Analyses of Prospective Cohort Studies in Finland, Germany, Sweden, and the U.S

OBJECTIVE

To combine prospective cohort studies, by including HLA harmonization, and estimate risk of islet autoimmunity and progression to clinical diabetes.

RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS

For prospective cohorts in Finland, Germany, Sweden, and the U.S., 24,662 children at increased genetic risk for development of islet autoantibodies and type 1 diabetes have been followed. Following harmonization, the outcomes were analyzed in 16,709 infants-toddlers enrolled by age 2.5 years.

RESULTS

In the infant-toddler cohort, 1,413 (8.5%) developed at least one autoantibody confirmed at two or more consecutive visits (seroconversion), 865 (5%) developed multiple autoantibodies, and 655 (4%) progressed to diabetes. The 15-year cumulative incidence of diabetes varied in children with one, two, or three autoantibodies at seroconversion: 45% (95% CI 40-52), 85% (78-90), and 92% (85-97), respectively. Among those with a single autoantibody, status 2 years after seroconversion predicted diabetes risk: 12% (10-25) if reverting to autoantibody negative, 30% (20-40) if retaining a single autoantibody, and 82% (80-95) if developing multiple autoantibodies. HLA-DR-DQ affected the risk of confirmed seroconversion and progression to diabetes in children with stable single-autoantibody status. Their 15-year diabetes incidence for higher- versus lower-risk genotypes was 40% (28-50) vs. 12% (5-38). The rate of progression to diabetes was inversely related to age at development of multiple autoantibodies, ranging from 20% per year to 6% per year in children developing multipositivity in ≤2 years or >7.4 years, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

The number of islet autoantibodies at seroconversion reliably predicts 15-year type 1 diabetes risk. In children retaining a single autoantibody, HLA-DR-DQ genotypes can further refine risk of progression.

Visual Analytics for Electronic Health Records: A Review

The increasing use of electronic health record (EHR)-based systems has led to the generation of clinical data at an unprecedented rate, which produces an untapped resource for healthcare experts to improve the quality of care. Despite the growing demand for adopting EHRs, the large amount of clinical data has made some analytical and cognitive processes more challenging. The emergence of a type of computational system called visual analytics has the potential to handle information overload challenges in EHRs by integrating analytics techniques with interactive visualizations. In recent years, several EHR-based visual analytics systems have been developed to fulfill healthcare experts’ computational and cognitive demands. In this paper, we conduct a systematic literature review to present the research papers that describe the design of EHR-based visual analytics systems and provide a brief overview of 22 systems that met the selection criteria. We identify and explain the key dimensions of the EHR-based visual analytics design space, including visual analytics tasks, analytics, visualizations, and interactions. We evaluate the systems using the selected dimensions and identify the gaps and areas with little prior work.

In Search of Patient Zero: Visual Analytics of Pathogen Transmission Pathways in Hospitals

Pathogen outbreaks (i.e., outbreaks of bacteria and viruses) in hospitals can cause high mortality rates and increase costs for hospitals significantly. An outbreak is generally noticed when the number of infected patients rises above an endemic level or the usual prevalence of a pathogen in a defined population. Reconstructing transmission pathways back to the source of an outbreak - the patient zero or index patient - requires the analysis of microbiological data and patient contacts. This is often manually completed by infection control experts. We present a novel visual analytics approach to support the analysis of transmission pathways, patient contacts, the progression of the outbreak, and patient timelines during hospitalization. Infection control experts applied our solution to a real outbreak of Klebsiella pneumoniae in a large German hospital. Using our system, our experts were able to scale the analysis of transmission pathways to longer time intervals (i.e., several years of data instead of days) and across a larger number of wards. Also, the system is able to reduce the analysis time from days to hours. In our final study, feedback from twenty-five experts from seven German hospitals provides evidence that our solution brings significant benefits for analyzing outbreaks.