Patient Safety Indicators During the Initial COVID-19 Pandemic Surge in the United States

OBJECTIVE

The COVID-19 pandemic presented a challenge to inpatient safety. It is unknown whether there were spillover effects due to COVID-19 into non-COVID-19 care and safety. We sought to evaluate the changes in inpatient Agency for Healthcare Research and Quality patient safety indicators (PSIs) in the United States before and during the first surge of the pandemic among patients admitted without COVID-19.

METHODS

We analyzed trends in PSIs from January 2019 to June 2020 in patients without COVID-19 using data from IBM MarketScan Commercial Database. We included members of employer-sponsored or Medicare supplemental health plans with inpatient, non-COVID-19 admissions. The primary outcomes were risk-adjusted composite and individual PSIs.

RESULTS

We analyzed 1,869,430 patients admitted without COVID-19. Among patients without COVID-19, the composite PSI score was not significantly different when comparing the first surge (Q2 2020) to the prepandemic period (e.g., Q2 2020 score of 2.46 [95% confidence interval {CI}, 2.34-2.58] versus Q1 2020 score of 2.37 [95% CI, 2.27-2.46]; P = 0.22). Individual PSIs for these patients during Q2 2020 were also not significantly different, except in-hospital fall with hip fracture (e.g., Q2 2020 was 3.42 [95% CI, 3.34-3.49] versus Q4 2019 was 2.45 [95% CI, 2.40-2.50]; P = 0.01).

CONCLUSIONS

The first surge of COVID-19 was not associated with worse inpatient safety for patients without COVID-19, highlighting the ability of the healthcare system to respond to the initial surge of the pandemic.

Cross-sectional study to assess the psychological morbidity of women facing possible miscarriage

INTRODUCTION

Threatened miscarriage is a common complication of pregnancy. This study aimed to assess psychological morbidity in women with threatened miscarriage, with the goal of identifying early interventions for women at risk of anxiety or depression.

METHODS

Women in their first trimester attending an Early Pregnancy Assessment Clinic were recruited between July 2013 and June 2015. They were asked to complete the 12-item General Health Questionnaire (GHQ-12), the Beck Depression Inventory (BDI), Spielberger's State Anxiety Inventory State form (STAI-S), the Fatigue Scale-14 (FS-14), and the Profile of Mood States (POMS) before consultation. They were also asked to rate anxiety levels before and after consultation using a visual analogue scale (VAS).

RESULTS

In total, 1390 women completed the study. The mean ± standard deviation of GHQ-12 (bi-modal) and GHQ-12 (Likert) scores were 4.04 ± 3.17 and 15.19 ± 5.30, respectively. Among these women, 48.4% had a GHQ-12 (bi-modal) score ≥4 and 76.7% had a GHQ-12 (Likert) score >12, indicating distress. The mean ± standard deviation of BDI, STAI-S, and FS-14 scores were 9.35 ± 7.19, 53.81 ± 10.95, and 2.40 ± 0.51, respectively. The VAS score significantly decreased after consultation (P<0.001). Compared with women without a history of miscarriage, women with a previous miscarriage had higher GHQ-12, BDI, and POMS scores (except for fatigue-inertia and vigour-activity subscales). A higher bleeding score was strongly positively correlated with GHQ-12 (Likert) score. There were weak correlations between pain score and the GHQ-12 (bi-modal) ≥4, BDI >12, and POMS scores (except for confusion-bewilderment subscale which showed a strong positive correlation).

CONCLUSION

Women with threatened miscarriage experience a considerable psychological burden, emphasising the importance of early recognition for timely management.

Refining the Definition of Stage 1 Type 1 Diabetes: An Ontology-Driven Analysis of the Heterogeneity of Multiple Islet Autoimmunity

OBJECTIVE

To estimate the risk of progression to stage 3 type 1 diabetes based on varying definitions of multiple islet autoantibody positivity (mIA).

RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS

Type 1 Diabetes Intelligence (T1DI) is a combined prospective data set of children from Finland, Germany, Sweden, and the U.S. who have an increased genetic risk for type 1 diabetes. Analysis included 16,709 infants-toddlers enrolled by age 2.5 years and comparison between groups using Kaplan-Meier survival analysis.

RESULTS

Of 865 (5%) children with mIA, 537 (62%) progressed to type 1 diabetes. The 15-year cumulative incidence of diabetes varied from the most stringent definition (mIA/Persistent/2: two or more islet autoantibodies positive at the same visit with two or more antibodies persistent at next visit; 88% [95% CI 85-92%]) to the least stringent (mIA/Any: positivity for two islet autoantibodies without co-occurring positivity or persistence; 18% [5-40%]). Progression in mIA/Persistent/2 was significantly higher than all other groups (P < 0.0001). Intermediate stringency definitions showed intermediate risk and were significantly different than mIA/Any (P < 0.05); however, differences waned over the 2-year follow-up among those who did not subsequently reach higher stringency. Among mIA/Persistent/2 individuals with three autoantibodies, loss of one autoantibody by the 2-year follow-up was associated with accelerated progression. Age was significantly associated with time from seroconversion to mIA/Persistent/2 status and mIA to stage 3 type 1 diabetes.

CONCLUSIONS

The 15-year risk of progression to type 1 diabetes risk varies markedly from 18 to 88% based on the stringency of mIA definition. While initial categorization identifies highest-risk individuals, short-term follow-up over 2 years may help stratify evolving risk, especially for those with less stringent definitions of mIA.

A Single-Institution Experience of Acute Neuropathic Lumbosacral Pain in Patients Treated with Short Course Hypofractionated Radiotherapy in Locally Advanced Rectal Cancer

PURPOSE/OBJECTIVE(S)

There has been increased interest in the use of short course hypofractionated radiotherapy as part of a total neoadjuvant treatment (TNT) approach in the management of rectal cancer since publication of the RAPIDO trial. However, the literature on short course radiation for rectal cancer has not reported significant acute toxicities in the weeks immediately following the completion of treatment. Anecdotally, a subset of patients has experienced acute neuropathic pain characterized in a lumbosacral distribution. This study investigates acute lumbosacral toxicity for patients receiving hypofractionated short course radiation as part of their definitive treatment for rectal cancer.

MATERIALS/METHODS

We retrospectively analyzed 75 patients with locally advanced rectal adenocarcinoma treated with hypofractionated short course radiation (25 Gy in 5 fractions) at our institution between 2016 and 2022. Acute toxicity caused by radiation was defined as that occurring from the start of radiation treatment to either 30 days post radiation completion, the start of chemotherapy, or date of surgery, whichever occurred first.

RESULTS

Among 75 patients treated with hypofractionated short course preoperative radiation with definitive intent, we identified 10 patients (13.3%) who experienced significant lumbosacral neuropathic pain and initiated a report to their medical providers during the acute toxicity time frame. Commonly, this was described as an achy pain in the bilateral buttocks radiating down to the knees or posterior claves. Patients rated this pain between moderate to extreme and management included steroids after failure of improvement with conservative measures, gabapentin, and conservative treatment with NSAIDs and Tylenol. Average time to onset of acute lumbosacral neuropathic pain was 3.7 days (SD 2.05) from start of RT.

CONCLUSION

We have identified a previously underappreciated acute toxicity of neuropathic lumbosacral pain in short course hypofractionated radiation therapy, which may be due to a lumbosacral plexus toxicity. Further analysis will seek to identify predictive factors such as comorbidities and dose to the lumbosacral plexus, and to determine whether there is a correlation between these observed acute toxicities and long-term outcomes.

Five-year retrospective review of ultrasoundguided manual vacuum aspiration for first-trimester miscarriage

INTRODUCTION

Manual vacuum aspiration is increasingly accepted as an alternative to medical or surgical evacuation of the uterus after first-trimester miscarriage. This study aimed to assess the efficacy of ultrasound-guided manual vacuum aspiration (USG-MVA) in the management of first-trimester miscarriage.

METHODS

This retrospective analysis included adult women with first-trimester miscarriage who underwent USG-MVA in Hong Kong between July 2015 and February 2021. The primary outcome was the efficacy of USG-MVA in terms of complete evacuation of the uterus, without the need for further medical or surgical intervention. Secondary outcomes included tolerance of the entire procedure, the success rate of karyotyping using chorionic villi, and procedural safety (ie, any clinically significant complications).

RESULTS

In total, 331 patients were scheduled to undergo USG-MVA for first-trimester miscarriage or incomplete miscarriage. The procedure was completed in 314 patients and well-tolerated in all of those patients. The complete evacuation rate was 94.6% (297/314), which is similar to the rate (98.1%) achieved by conventional surgical evacuation in a previous randomised controlled trial in our unit. There were no major complications. Samples from 95.2% of patients were suitable for karyotyping, which is considerably higher than the rate of suitable samples (82.9%) obtained via conventional surgical evacuation in our previous randomised controlled trial.

CONCLUSION

Ultrasound-guided manual vacuum aspiration is a safe and effective method to manage first-trimester miscarriage. Although it currently is not extensively used in Hong Kong, its broader clinical application could avoid general anaesthesia and shorten hospital stay.

Automatic slice thickness measurement on three types of Catphan CT phantoms

OBJECTIVE

To develop an algorithm to measure slice thickness to run on three types of Catphan phantoms with the ability to adapt to any misalignment and rotation of the phantoms.&#xD;Method: Images of Catphan 500, 504, and 604 phantoms were examined. In addition, images with various slice thicknesses ranging from 1.5 to 10.0 mm, distance to the iso-center and phantom rotations were also examined. The automatic slice thickness algorithm was carried out by processing only objects within a circle having a diameter half that of the phantom diameter. A segmentation was performed within an inner circle with dynamic thresholds to produce binary images with wire and bead objects. Region properties were used to distinguish wire ramps and bead objects. At each identified wire ramp, the angle was detected using the Hough transform. Profile lines were then placed on each ramp based on the centroid coordinates and detected angles, and the full-width at half maximum (FWHM) determined for the average pixel profile. The slice thickness was obtained by multiplying the FWHM by the tangent of the ramp angle (23o). &#xD;Results: Automatic measurements work well and have only a small difference (<0.5 mm) from manual measurements. For variations of slice thickness, automatic measurement successfully performs segmentation and correctly locates the profile line on all wire ramps. The results show values that are close (< 3mm) to the nominal thickness on thin slices, but less close for thicker slices. There is a strong correlation (R2 = 0.873) between automatic and manual measurements. Testing the algorithm at various distances from the iso-center and phantom rotation angle also produced accurate results. &#xD;Conclusion: An automated algorithm for measuring slice thickness on three types of Catphan CT phantom images has been developed. The algorithm works well on various thicknesses, distances from the iso-center, and phantom rotations.

Cross-modal autoencoder framework learns holistic representations of cardiovascular state

A fundamental challenge in diagnostics is integrating multiple modalities to develop a joint characterization of physiological state. Using the heart as a model system, we develop a cross-modal autoencoder framework for integrating distinct data modalities and constructing a holistic representation of cardiovascular state. In particular, we use our framework to construct such cross-modal representations from cardiac magnetic resonance images (MRIs), containing structural information, and electrocardiograms (ECGs), containing myoelectric information. We leverage the learned cross-modal representation to (1) improve phenotype prediction from a single, accessible phenotype such as ECGs; (2) enable imputation of hard-to-acquire cardiac MRIs from easy-to-acquire ECGs; and (3) develop a framework for performing genome-wide association studies in an unsupervised manner. Our results systematically integrate distinct diagnostic modalities into a common representation that better characterizes physiologic state.

Genetics of myocardial interstitial fibrosis in the human heart and association with disease

Myocardial interstitial fibrosis is associated with cardiovascular disease and adverse prognosis. Here, to investigate the biological pathways that underlie fibrosis in the human heart, we developed a machine learning model to measure native myocardial T1 time, a marker of myocardial fibrosis, in 41,505 UK Biobank participants who underwent cardiac magnetic resonance imaging. Greater T1 time was associated with diabetes mellitus, renal disease, aortic stenosis, cardiomyopathy, heart failure, atrial fibrillation, conduction disease and rheumatoid arthritis. Genome-wide association analysis identified 11 independent loci associated with T1 time. The identified loci implicated genes involved in glucose transport (SLC2A12), iron homeostasis (HFE, TMPRSS6), tissue repair (ADAMTSL1, VEGFC), oxidative stress (SOD2), cardiac hypertrophy (MYH7B) and calcium signaling (CAMK2D). Using a transforming growth factor β1-mediated cardiac fibroblast activation assay, we found that 9 of the 11 loci consisted of genes that exhibited temporal changes in expression or open chromatin conformation supporting their biological relevance to myofibroblast cell state acquisition. By harnessing machine learning to perform large-scale quantification of myocardial interstitial fibrosis using cardiac imaging, we validate associations between cardiac fibrosis and disease, and identify new biologically relevant pathways underlying fibrosis.

The Genetic Determinants of Aortic Distention

BACKGROUND

As the largest conduit vessel, the aorta is responsible for the conversion of phasic systolic inflow from ventricular ejection into more continuous peripheral blood delivery. Systolic distention and diastolic recoil conserve energy and are enabled by the specialized composition of the aortic extracellular matrix. Aortic distensibility decreases with age and vascular disease.

OBJECTIVES

In this study, we sought to discover epidemiologic correlates and genetic determinants of aortic distensibility and strain.

METHODS

We trained a deep learning model to quantify thoracic aortic area throughout the cardiac cycle from cardiac magnetic resonance images and calculated aortic distensibility and strain in 42,342 UK Biobank participants.

RESULTS

Descending aortic distensibility was inversely associated with future incidence of cardiovascular diseases, such as stroke (HR: 0.59 per SD; P = 0.00031). The heritabilities of aortic distensibility and strain were 22% to 25% and 30% to 33%, respectively. Common variant analyses identified 12 and 26 loci for ascending and 11 and 21 loci for descending aortic distensibility and strain, respectively. Of the newly identified loci, 22 were not significantly associated with thoracic aortic diameter. Nearby genes were involved in elastogenesis and atherosclerosis. Aortic strain and distensibility polygenic scores had modest effect sizes for predicting cardiovascular outcomes (delaying or accelerating disease onset by 2%-18% per SD change in scores) and remained statistically significant predictors after accounting for aortic diameter polygenic scores.

CONCLUSIONS

Genetic determinants of aortic function influence risk for stroke and coronary artery disease and may lead to novel targets for medical intervention.

Long-term Cardiovascular Risks of Gonadotropin-releasing Hormone Agonists and Antagonists: a Population-based Cohort Study

AIMS

Gonadotropin-releasing hormone (GnRH) agonists and antagonists, critical medications for prostate cancer (PCa) treatment, may differ in cardiovascular safety. This prospective cohort study aimed to compare the long-term cardiovascular risks between GnRH agonists and antagonists.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

Patients with PCa receiving GnRH agonists or antagonists during 2013-2021 in Hong Kong were identified. Patients with <6 months' prescriptions, who were switching between drugs, had missing baseline prostate-specific antigen level or had a prior stroke or myocardial infarction were excluded. Patients were followed up until September 2021. The primary outcome was major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE) as in the PRONOUNCE trial (MACE_PRONOUNCE), i.e. a composite of all-cause mortality, stroke and myocardial infarction. The secondary outcome was MACE_CVM, i.e. a composite of cardiovascular mortality, stroke and myocardial infarction. Inverse probability treatment weighting was used to balance covariates between groups. The Log-rank test was used to compare the cumulative freedom from the primary outcome between groups.

RESULTS

In total, 2479 patients were analysed (162 GnRH antagonist users and 2317 agonist users; median age 75.0 years, interquartile range 68.0-81.6 years). Inverse probability treatment weighting achieved good covariate balance between groups. Over a median follow-up duration of 3.0 years (interquartile range 1.7-5.0 years), 1115 patients (45.0%) had MACE_PRONOUNCE and 344 (13.9%) had MACE_CVM. GnRH agonist users had lower risks of MACE_PRONOUNCE (Log-rank P < 0.001) and MACE_CVM (Log-rank P = 0.027). However, no differences were observed within 1 year of follow-up (MACE_PRONOUNCE: Log-rank P = 0.308; MACE_CVM: Log-rank P = 0.357). Among patients without cardiovascular risk factors at baseline, GnRH agonist users had lower risks of MACE_PRONOUNCE (Log-rank P < 0.001) and MACE_CVM (Log-rank P = 0.001), whereas no differences were observed in those with such risk factor(s) (MACE_PRONOUNCE: Log-rank P = 0.569; MACE_CVM: Log-rank P = 0.615).

CONCLUSIONS

GnRH antagonists may be associated with higher long-term, but not short-term, cardiovascular risks than agonists in Asian patients with PCa, particularly in those without known cardiovascular risk factors.

Implementation of ovarian tissue cryopreservation in Hong Kong

INTRODUCTION

Worldwide, >130 babies have been born from ovarian tissue cryopreservation (OTC) and ovarian tissue transplantation (OTT). Ovarian tissue cryopreservation can improve quality of life among young female cancer survivors. Here, we assessed the feasibility of OTC and subsequent OTT in Hong Kong via xenografts in nude mice.

METHODS

This pilot study was conducted in a university-affiliated tertiary hospital. Fifty-two ovarian tissues were collected from 12 patients aged 29 to 41 years during ovarian surgery, then engrafted into 34 nude mice. The efficacies of slow freezing and vitrification were directly compared. In Phase I, non-ovariectomised nude mice underwent ovarian tissue engraftment. In Phase II, ovariectomised nude mice underwent ovarian tissue engraftment, followed by gonadotrophin administration to promote folliculogenesis. Ovarian tissue viability was assessed by gross anatomical, histological, and immunohistochemical examinations before and after OTC. Follicular density and morphological integrity were also assessed.

RESULTS

After OTC and OTT, grafted ovarian tissues remained viable in nude mice. Primordial follicles were observed in thawed and grafted ovarian tissues, indicating that the cryopreservation and transplantation protocols were both effective. The results were unaffected by gonadotrophin stimulation.

CONCLUSION

This study demonstrated the feasibility of OTC in Hong Kong as well as primordial follicle viability after OTC and OTT in nude mice. Ovarian tissue cryopreservation is ideal for patients who cannot undergo the ovarian stimulation necessary for oocyte or embryo freezing as well as prepubertal girls (all ineligible for oocyte freezing). Our findings support the clinical implementation of OTC and subsequent OTT in Hong Kong.

BMI-adjusted adipose tissue volumes exhibit depot-specific and divergent associations with cardiometabolic diseases

For any given body mass index (BMI), individuals vary substantially in fat distribution, and this variation may have important implications for cardiometabolic risk. Here, we study disease associations with BMI-independent variation in visceral (VAT), abdominal subcutaneous (ASAT), and gluteofemoral (GFAT) fat depots in 40,032 individuals of the UK Biobank with body MRI. We apply deep learning models based on two-dimensional body MRI projections to enable near-perfect estimation of fat depot volumes (R2 in heldout dataset = 0.978-0.991 for VAT, ASAT, and GFAT). Next, we derive BMI-adjusted metrics for each fat depot (e.g. VAT adjusted for BMI, VATadjBMI) to quantify local adiposity burden. VATadjBMI is associated with increased risk of type 2 diabetes and coronary artery disease, ASATadjBMI is largely neutral, and GFATadjBMI is associated with reduced risk. These results - describing three metabolically distinct fat depots at scale - clarify the cardiometabolic impact of BMI-independent differences in body fat distribution.

Quantifying the utility of islet autoantibody levels in the prediction of type 1 diabetes in children

AIMS/HYPOTHESIS

The aim of this study was to explore the utility of islet autoantibody (IAb) levels for the prediction of type 1 diabetes in autoantibody-positive children.

METHODS

Prospective cohort studies in Finland, Germany, Sweden and the USA followed 24,662 children at increased genetic or familial risk of developing islet autoimmunity and diabetes. For the 1403 who developed IAbs (523 of whom developed diabetes), levels of autoantibodies against insulin (IAA), glutamic acid decarboxylase (GADA) and insulinoma-associated antigen-2 (IA-2A) were harmonised for analysis. Diabetes prediction models using multivariate logistic regression with inverse probability censored weighting (IPCW) were trained using 10-fold cross-validation. Discriminative power for disease was estimated using the IPCW concordance index (C index) with 95% CI estimated via bootstrap.

RESULTS

A baseline model with covariates for data source, sex, diabetes family history, HLA risk group and age at seroconversion with a 10-year follow-up period yielded a C index of 0.61 (95% CI 0.58, 0.63). The performance improved after adding the IAb positivity status for IAA, GADA and IA-2A at seroconversion: C index 0.72 (95% CI 0.71, 0.74). Using the IAb levels instead of positivity indicators resulted in even better performance: C index 0.76 (95% CI 0.74, 0.77). The predictive power was maintained when using the IAb levels alone: C index 0.76 (95% CI 0.75, 0.76). The prediction was better for shorter follow-up periods, with a C index of 0.82 (95% CI 0.81, 0.83) at 2 years, and remained reasonable for longer follow-up periods, with a C index of 0.76 (95% CI 0.75, 0.76) at 11 years. Inclusion of the results of a third IAb test added to the predictive power, and a suitable interval between seroconversion and the third test was approximately 1.5 years, with a C index of 0.78 (95% CI 0.77, 0.78) at 10 years follow-up.

CONCLUSIONS/INTERPRETATION

Consideration of quantitative patterns of IAb levels improved the predictive power for type 1 diabetes in IAb-positive children beyond qualitative IAb positivity status.

Islet Autoantibody Levels Differentiate Progression Trajectories in Individuals With Presymptomatic Type 1 Diabetes

In our previous data-driven analysis of evolving patterns of islet autoantibodies (IAb) against insulin (IAA), GAD (GADA), and islet antigen 2 (IA-2A), we discovered three trajectories, characterized according to multiple IAb (TR1), IAA (TR2), or GADA (TR3) as the first appearing autoantibodies. Here we examined the evolution of IAb levels within these trajectories in 2,145 IAb-positive participants followed from early life and compared those who progressed to type 1 diabetes (n = 643) with those remaining undiagnosed (n = 1,502). With use of thresholds determined by 5-year diabetes risk, four levels were defined for each IAb and overlaid onto each visit. In diagnosed participants, high IAA levels were seen in TR1 and TR2 at ages <3 years, whereas IAA remained at lower levels in the undiagnosed. Proportions of dwell times (total duration of follow-up at a given level) at the four IAb levels differed between the diagnosed and undiagnosed for GADA and IA-2A in all three trajectories (P < 0.001), but for IAA dwell times differed only within TR2 (P < 0.05). Overall, undiagnosed participants more frequently had low IAb levels and later appearance of IAb than diagnosed participants. In conclusion, while it has long been appreciated that the number of autoantibodies is an important predictor of type 1 diabetes, consideration of autoantibody levels within the three autoimmune trajectories improved differentiation of IAb-positive children who progressed to type 1 diabetes from those who did not.

The Association of the First Surge of the COVID-19 Pandemic with the High- and Low-Value Outpatient Care Delivered to Adults in the USA

BACKGROUND

The first surge of the COVID-19 pandemic entirely altered healthcare delivery. Whether this also altered the receipt of high- and low-value care is unknown.

OBJECTIVE

To test the association between the April through June 2020 surge of COVID-19 and various high- and low-value care measures to determine how the delivery of care changed.

DESIGN

Difference in differences analysis, examining the difference in quality measures between the April through June 2020 surge quarter and the January through March 2020 quarter with the same 2 quarters' difference the year prior.

PARTICIPANTS

Adults in the MarketScan® Commercial Database and Medicare Supplemental Database.

MAIN MEASURES

Fifteen low-value and 16 high-value quality measures aggregated into 8 clinical quality composites (4 of these low-value).

KEY RESULTS

We analyzed 9,352,569 adults. Mean age was 44 years (SD, 15.03), 52% were female, and 75% were employed. Receipt of nearly every type of low-value care decreased during the surge. For example, low-value cancer screening decreased 0.86% (95% CI, -1.03 to -0.69). Use of opioid medications for back and neck pain (DiD +0.94 [95% CI, +0.82 to +1.07]) and use of opioid medications for headache (DiD +0.38 [95% CI, 0.07 to 0.69]) were the only two measures to increase. Nearly all high-value care measures also decreased. For example, high-value diabetes care decreased 9.75% (95% CI, -10.79 to -8.71).

CONCLUSIONS

The first COVID-19 surge was associated with receipt of less low-value care and substantially less high-value care for most measures, with the notable exception of increases in low-value opioid use.

Identifying patterns in amyotrophic lateral sclerosis progression from sparse longitudinal data

The clinical presentation of amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS), a fatal neurodegenerative disease, varies widely across patients, making it challenging to determine if potential therapeutics slow progression. We sought to determine whether there were common patterns of disease progression that could aid in the design and analysis of clinical trials. We developed an approach based on a mixture of Gaussian processes to identify clusters of patients sharing similar disease progression patterns, modeling their average trajectories and the variability in each cluster. We show that ALS progression is frequently nonlinear, with periods of stable disease preceded or followed by rapid decline. We also show that our approach can be extended to Alzheimer's and Parkinson's diseases. Our results advance the characterization of disease progression of ALS and provide a flexible modeling approach that can be applied to other progressive diseases.

Spatially Distinct Genetic Determinants of Aortic Dimensions Influence Risks of Aneurysm and Stenosis

BACKGROUND

The left ventricular outflow tract (LVOT) and ascending aorta are spatially complex, with distinct pathologies and embryologic origins. Prior work examined the genetics of thoracic aortic diameter in a single plane.

OBJECTIVES

We sought to elucidate the genetic basis for the diameter of the LVOT, aortic root, and ascending aorta.

METHODS

Using deep learning, we analyzed 2.3 million cardiac magnetic resonance images from 43,317 UK Biobank participants. We computed the diameters of the LVOT, the aortic root, and at 6 locations of ascending aorta. For each diameter, we conducted a genome-wide association study and generated a polygenic score. Finally, we investigated associations between these scores and disease incidence.

RESULTS

A total of 79 loci were significantly associated with at least 1 diameter. Of these, 35 were novel, and most were associated with 1 or 2 diameters. A polygenic score of aortic diameter approximately 13 mm from the sinotubular junction most strongly predicted thoracic aortic aneurysm (n = 427,016; mean HR: 1.42 per SD; 95% CI: 1.34-1.50; P = 6.67 × 10^-21). A polygenic score predicting a smaller aortic root was predictive of aortic stenosis (n = 426,502; mean HR: 1.08 per SD; 95% CI: 1.03-1.12; P = 5 × 10^-6).

CONCLUSIONS

We detected distinct genetic loci underpinning the diameters of the LVOT, aortic root, and at several segments of ascending aorta. We spatially defined a region of aorta whose genetics may be most relevant to predicting thoracic aortic aneurysm. We further described a genetic signature that may predispose to aortic stenosis. Understanding genetic contributions to proximal aortic diameter may enable identification of individuals at risk for aortic disease and facilitate prioritization of therapeutic targets.

Clinical Implementation of Combined Monogenic and Polygenic Risk Disclosure for Coronary Artery Disease

BACKGROUND

State-of-the-art genetic risk interpretation for a common complex disease such as coronary artery disease (CAD) requires assessment for both monogenic variants—such as those related to familial hypercholesterolemia—as well as the cumulative impact of many common variants, as quantified by a polygenic score.

OBJECTIVES

The objective of the study was to describe a combined monogenic and polygenic CAD risk assessment program and examine its impact on patient understanding and changes to clinical management.

METHODS

Study participants attended an initial visit in a preventive genomics clinic and a disclosure visit to discuss results and recommendations, primarily via telemedicine. Digital postdisclosure surveys and chart review evaluated the impact of disclosure.

RESULTS

There were 60 participants (mean age 51 years, 37% women, 72% with no known CAD), including 30 (50%) referred by their cardiologists and 30 (50%) self-referred. Two (3%) participants had a monogenic variant pathogenic for familial hypercholesterolemia, and 19 (32%) had a high polygenic score in the top quintile of the population distribution. In a postdisclosure survey, both the genetic test report (in 80% of participants) and the discussion with the clinician (in 89% of participants) were ranked as very or extremely helpful in understanding the result. Of the 42 participants without CAD, 17 or 40% had a change in management, including statin initiation, statin intensification, or coronary imaging.

CONCLUSIONS

Combined monogenic and polygenic assessments for CAD risk provided by preventive genomics clinics are beneficial for patients and result in changes in management in a significant portion of patients.

Prediction performance and fairness heterogeneity in cardiovascular risk models

Prediction models are commonly used to estimate risk for cardiovascular diseases, to inform diagnosis and management. However, performance may vary substantially across relevant subgroups of the population. Here we investigated heterogeneity of accuracy and fairness metrics across a variety of subgroups for risk prediction of two common diseases: atrial fibrillation (AF) and atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD). We calculated the Cohorts for Heart and Aging in Genomic Epidemiology Atrial Fibrillation (CHARGE-AF) score for AF and the Pooled Cohort Equations (PCE) score for ASCVD in three large datasets: Explorys Life Sciences Dataset (Explorys, n = 21,809,334), Mass General Brigham (MGB, n = 520,868), and the UK Biobank (UKBB, n = 502,521). Our results demonstrate important performance heterogeneity across subpopulations defined by age, sex, and presence of preexisting disease, with fairly consistent patterns across both scores. For example, using CHARGE-AF, discrimination declined with increasing age, with a concordance index of 0.72 [95% CI 0.72-0.73] for the youngest (45-54 years) subgroup to 0.57 [0.56-0.58] for the oldest (85-90 years) subgroup in Explorys. Even though sex is not included in CHARGE-AF, the statistical parity difference (i.e., likelihood of being classified as high risk) was considerable between males and females within the 65-74 years subgroup with a value of - 0.33 [95% CI - 0.33 to - 0.33]. We also observed weak discrimination (i.e., < 0.7) and suboptimal calibration (i.e., calibration slope outside of 0.7-1.3) in large subsets of the population; for example, all individuals aged 75 years or older in Explorys (17.4%). Our findings highlight the need to characterize and quantify the behavior of clinical risk models within specific subpopulations so they can be used appropriately to facilitate more accurate, consistent, and equitable assessment of disease risk.

Association of Pathogenic DNA Variants Predisposing to Cardiomyopathy With Cardiovascular Disease Outcomes and All-Cause Mortality

Importance

Pathogenic variants associated with inherited cardiomyopathy are recognized as important and clinically actionable when identified, leading some clinicians to recommend population-wide genomic screening.

Objective

To determine the prevalence and clinical importance of pathogenic variants associated with inherited cardiomyopathy within the context of contemporary clinical care.

Design, Setting, and Participants

This was a genetic association study of participants in Atherosclerosis in Risk Communities (ARIC), recruited from 1987 to 1989, with median follow-up of 27 years, and the UK Biobank, recruited from 2006 to 2010, with median follow-up of 10 years. ARIC participants were recruited from 4 sites across the US. UK Biobank participants were recruited from 22 sites across the UK. Participants in the US were of African and European ancestry; those in the UK were of African, East Asian, South Asian, and European ancestry. Statistical analyses were performed between August 1, 2021, and February 9, 2022.

Exposures

Rare genetic variants predisposing to inherited cardiomyopathy.

Main Outcomes and Measures

Pathogenicity of observed DNA sequence variants in sequenced exomes of 13 genes (ACTC1, FLNC, GLA, LMNA, MYBPC3, MYH7, MYL2, MYL3, PRKAG2, TNNI3, TNNT2, TPM1, and TTN) associated with inherited cardiomyopathies were classified by a blinded clinical geneticist per American College of Medical Genetics recommendations. Incidence of all-cause mortality, heart failure, and atrial fibrillation were determined. Cardiac magnetic resonance imaging, echocardiography, and electrocardiogram measures were assessed in a subset of participants.

Results

A total of 9667 ARIC participants (mean [SD] age, 54.0 [5.7] years; 4232 women [43.8%]; 2658 African [27.5%] and 7009 European [72.5%] ancestry) and 49 744 UK Biobank participants (mean [SD] age, 57.1 [8.0] years; 27 142 women [54.5%]; 1006 African [2.0%], 173 East Asian [0.3%], 939 South Asian [1.9%], and 46 449 European [93.4%] European ancestry) were included in the study. Of those, 59 participants (0.61%) in ARIC and 364 participants (0.73%) in UK Biobank harbored an actionable pathogenic or likely pathogenic variant associated with dilated or hypertrophic cardiomyopathy. Carriers of these variants were not reliably identifiable by imaging. However, the presence of these variants was associated with increased risk of heart failure (hazard ratio [HR], 1.7; 95% CI, 1.1-2.8), atrial fibrillation (HR, 2.9; 95% CI, 1.9-4.5), and all-cause mortality (HR, 1.5; 95% CI, 1.1-2.2) in ARIC. Similar risk patterns were observed in the UK Biobank.

Conclusions and Relevance

Results of this genetic association study suggest that approximately 0.7% of study participants harbored a pathogenic variant associated with inherited cardiomyopathy. These variant carriers would be challenging to identify within clinical practice without genetic testing but are at increased risk for cardiovascular disease and all-cause mortality.

Evaluation of prognostic risk models for postoperative pulmonary complications in adult patients undergoing major abdominal surgery: a systematic review and international external validation cohort study

BACKGROUND

Stratifying risk of postoperative pulmonary complications after major abdominal surgery allows clinicians to modify risk through targeted interventions and enhanced monitoring. In this study, we aimed to identify and validate prognostic models against a new consensus definition of postoperative pulmonary complications.

METHODS

We did a systematic review and international external validation cohort study. The systematic review was done in accordance with the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses guidelines. We searched MEDLINE and Embase on March 1, 2020, for articles published in English that reported on risk prediction models for postoperative pulmonary complications following abdominal surgery. External validation of existing models was done within a prospective international cohort study of adult patients (≥18 years) undergoing major abdominal surgery. Data were collected between Jan 1, 2019, and April 30, 2019, in the UK, Ireland, and Australia. Discriminative ability and prognostic accuracy summary statistics were compared between models for the 30-day postoperative pulmonary complication rate as defined by the Standardised Endpoints in Perioperative Medicine Core Outcome Measures in Perioperative and Anaesthetic Care (StEP-COMPAC). Model performance was compared using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROCC).

FINDINGS

In total, we identified 2903 records from our literature search; of which, 2514 (86·6%) unique records were screened, 121 (4·8%) of 2514 full texts were assessed for eligibility, and 29 unique prognostic models were identified. Nine (31·0%) of 29 models had score development reported only, 19 (65·5%) had undergone internal validation, and only four (13·8%) had been externally validated. Data to validate six eligible models were collected in the international external validation cohort study. Data from 11 591 patients were available, with an overall postoperative pulmonary complication rate of 7·8% (n=903). None of the six models showed good discrimination (defined as AUROCC ≥0·70) for identifying postoperative pulmonary complications, with the Assess Respiratory Risk in Surgical Patients in Catalonia score showing the best discrimination (AUROCC 0·700 [95% CI 0·683-0·717]).

INTERPRETATION

In the pre-COVID-19 pandemic data, variability in the risk of pulmonary complications (StEP-COMPAC definition) following major abdominal surgery was poorly described by existing prognostication tools. To improve surgical safety during the COVID-19 pandemic recovery and beyond, novel risk stratification tools are required.

FUNDING

British Journal of Surgery Society.

The age-dependent association of risk factors with pancreatic cancer

BACKGROUND

Pancreatic cancer presents as advanced disease in >80% of patients; yet, appropriate ages to consider prevention and early detection strategies are poorly defined. We investigated age-specific associations and attributable risks of pancreatic cancer for established modifiable and non-modifiable risk factors.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

We included 167 483 participants from two prospective US cohort studies with 1190 incident cases of pancreatic cancer during >30 years of follow-up; 5107 pancreatic cancer cases and 8845 control participants of European ancestry from a completed multicenter genome-wide association study (GWAS); and 248 893 pancreatic cancer cases documented in the US Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) Program. Across different age categories, we investigated cigarette smoking, obesity, diabetes, height, and non-O blood group in the prospective cohorts; weighted polygenic risk score of 22 previously identified single nucleotide polymorphisms in the GWAS; and male sex and black race in the SEER Program.

RESULTS

In the prospective cohorts, all five risk factors were more strongly associated with pancreatic cancer risk among younger participants, with associations attenuated among those aged >70 years. The hazard ratios comparing participants with three to five risk factors with those with no risk factors were 9.24 [95% confidence interval (CI) 4.11-20.77] among those aged ≤60 years, 3.00 (95% CI 1.85-4.86) among those aged 61-70 years, and 1.46 (95% CI 1.10-1.94) among those aged >70 years (Pheterogeneity = 3×10-5). These factors together were related to 65.6%, 49.7%, and 17.2% of incident pancreatic cancers in these age groups, respectively. In the GWAS and the SEER Program, the associations with the polygenic risk score, male sex, and black race were all stronger among younger individuals (Pheterogeneity ≤0.01).

CONCLUSIONS

Established risk factors are more strongly associated with earlier-onset pancreatic cancer, emphasizing the importance of age at initiation for cancer prevention and control programs targeting this highly lethal malignancy.

Inherited basis of visceral, abdominal subcutaneous and gluteofemoral fat depots

For any given level of overall adiposity, individuals vary considerably in fat distribution. The inherited basis of fat distribution in the general population is not fully understood. Here, we study up to 38,965 UK Biobank participants with MRI-derived visceral (VAT), abdominal subcutaneous (ASAT), and gluteofemoral (GFAT) adipose tissue volumes. Because these fat depot volumes are highly correlated with BMI, we additionally study six local adiposity traits: VAT adjusted for BMI and height (VATadj), ASATadj, GFATadj, VAT/ASAT, VAT/GFAT, and ASAT/GFAT. We identify 250 independent common variants (39 newly-identified) associated with at least one trait, with many associations more pronounced in female participants. Rare variant association studies extend prior evidence for PDE3B as an important modulator of fat distribution. Local adiposity traits (1) highlight depot-specific genetic architecture and (2) enable construction of depot-specific polygenic scores that have divergent associations with type 2 diabetes and coronary artery disease. These results - using MRI-derived, BMI-independent measures of local adiposity - confirm fat distribution as a highly heritable trait with important implications for cardiometabolic health outcomes.

Systematically exploring repurposing effects of antihypertensives

With availability of voluminous sets of observational data, an empirical paradigm to screen for drug repurposing opportunities (i.e., beneficial effects of drugs on nonindicated outcomes) is feasible. In this article, we use a linked claims and electronic health record database to comprehensively explore repurposing effects of antihypertensive drugs. We follow a target trial emulation framework for causal inference to emulate randomized controlled trials estimating confounding adjusted effects of antihypertensives on each of 262 outcomes of interest. We then fit hierarchical models to the results as a form of postprocessing to account for multiple comparisons and to sift through the results in a principled way. Our motivation is twofold. We seek both to surface genuinely intriguing drug repurposing opportunities and to elucidate through a real application some study design decisions and potential biases that arise in this context.

AB0879 Interim analysis of baseline characteristics and 12-week outcomes for a subset of patients with moderate-to-severe plaque psoriasis and psoriatic arthritis from the Psoriasis Study of Health Outcomes

Background

Approximately 30% of patients (pts) with plaque psoriasis (PsO) develop psoriatic arthritis (PsA)1, which is associated with high Psoriasis Area and Severity Index (PASI) and nail involvement. The Psoriasis Study of Health Outcomes (PSoHO) is a 3-year (yr), international, prospective, observational cohort study comparing the effectiveness of anti-IL-17A biologics to all other approved biologics in pts with moderate-to-severe PsO.

Objectives

This interim subset analysis describes the baseline characteristics and Week 12 (W12) effectiveness in pts with moderate-to-severe PsO and PsA in PSoHO.

Methods

Adults with moderate-to-severe PsO for ≥6 months who initiated/switched biologic treatment during routine medical care were enrolled. PsA diagnosis was recorded by the dermatologists based on the medical history and/or information provided by the patient. W12 effectiveness was assessed by the proportion of pts achieving almost clear or clear skin defined by ≥90% improvement in PASI, affected Body Surface Area (BSA), Dermatology Life Quality Index (DLQI), and Patient Global Assessment of Disease Severity (PatGA). Musculoskeletal endpoints were not collected. Data were analysed descriptively, using mean (standard deviation [SD]) or median ([Q1/Q3]) for continuous variables and n, % and 95% confidence limits for categorical variables.

Results

Overall, 1981 pts were enrolled in this study, of whom 461 (23.3%) had a PsA diagnosis and received either anti-IL-17A (n=227; 49.2%) or other biologics (n=234; 50.8%). This subset of pts had a mean age of 48.7 yrs and a median disease duration of 18.9 yrs for PsO and 5.6 yrs for PsA (Table 1).

Table 1.

Baseline characteristics for PsO patients with PsA. Mean (SD) reported for all available data for that measure, unless stated otherwise.

Overall (n=461)Anti-IL-17A (n=227)Other Biologics (n=234)Age, yrs48.7 (12.9)50.9 (12.9)46.6 (12.6)Male, n (%)232 (50.3)112 (49.3)120 (51.3)BMI (kg/m2)29.7 (6.2)29.8 (5.9)29.6 (6.4)Smoking status – Current, n (%)100 (25.4)41 (21.1)59 (29.5)Disease duration (PsA), yrs, median (Q1/Q3)5.6(2.2/13.1)5.6(2.0 / 13.8)5.5(2.3 / 12.8)Disease duration (PsO), yrs, median (Q1/Q3)18.9(9.7 / 28.6)18.9(9.2 / 30.3)18.7(10.1 / 27.3)Any previous biologic therapy, n (%)249 (54.0)123 (54.2)126 (53.8)PASI14.3 (9.3)13.6 (8.1)15.0 (10.3)BSA, %21.7 (19.4)19.8 (17.3)23.5 (21.1)mNAPSI16.6 (22.8)16.5 (25.5)16.7 (20.1)Presence of nail PsO, n (%)217 (47.2)103 (45.4)114 (48.9)PatGA3.5 (1.2)3.5 (1.3)3.6 (1.2)DLQI13.6 (7.9)13.4 (7.8)13.7 (8.0)HADS Depression score >10, n (%)73 (19.3)38 (20.5)35 (18.1)HADS Anxiety score >10, n (%)124 (32.8)62 (33.5)62 (32.1)

BMI = Body Mass Index; BSA = Body Surface Area; DLQI = Dermatology Life Quality Index; HADS = Hospital Anxiety and Depression Scale; HADS >10 indicates significant symptoms of depression/anxiety; mNAPSI = Modified Nail Psoriasis Severity Index; PASI = Psoriasis Area and Severity Index; PatGA = Patient Global Assessment of Disease Severity; Q1/Q3 = Quartile 1/3.

At W12, 62.4% and 42.6% of anti-IL-17A-treated pts achieved PASI90 and PASI100, respectively, compared with 34.2% and 16.8% in the other biologics cohort, respectively (Figure 1). BSA <3% was reached by 70.9% of anti-IL-17A-treated pts and 49.5% in the other biologics cohort, while 71.2% and 44.8%, respectively, reached PatGA 0/1. Among pts with baseline DLQI ≥2, 38.0% and 27.1% of the anti-IL-17A and other biologics cohorts, respectively, reached DLQI 0/1.

Figure 1.

Percentage of patients receiving anti-IL-17A or other biologics who achieved PASI75/90/100, absolute PASI ≤1, BSA <3%, PatGA 0/1 and DLQI 0/1 (baseline DLQI ≥2) at Week 12. Bars represent upper 95% confidence limits.

Conclusion

The effectiveness of blocking IL-17A on skin manifestations and on quality-of-life improvements in pts with PsO and PsA in the real-world study was consistent with observations from clinical trials.

References

[1]Zabotti A, et al. RMD Open 2019;5: e001067

Disclosure of Interests

Lars Erik Kristensen Speakers bureau: Pfizer, AbbVie, Amgen, UCB, Gilead, Biogen, BMS, MSD, Novartis, Eli Lilly, and Janssen pharmaceuticals., Consultant of: Pfizer, AbbVie, Amgen, UCB, Gilead, Biogen, BMS, MSD, Novartis, Eli Lilly, and Janssen pharmaceuticals., Grant/research support from: IIT research grants from Pfizer, AbbVie, UCB, Gilead, Biogen, Novartis, Eli Lilly, and Janssen pharmaceuticals., Frank Behrens Speakers bureau: Amgen, AbbVie, Pfizer, Roche, Chugai, UCB, BMS, Celgene, MSD, Novartis, Biotest, Janssen, Genzyme, Eli Lilly, Boehringer and Sandoz, Consultant of: Amgen, AbbVie, Pfizer, Roche, Chugai, UCB, BMS, Celgene, MSD, Novartis, Biotest, Janssen, Genzyme, Eli Lilly, Boehringer and Sandoz, Grant/research support from: AbbVie, Pfizer, Roche, Chugai, GSK and Janssen, Luis Puig Speakers bureau: Celgene, Janssen, Eli Lilly, Novartis, Pfizer, Consultant of: Abbvie, Almirall, Amgen, Baxalta, Biogen, Boehringer Ingelheim, Bristol Myers Squibb, Celgene, Fresenius-Kabi, Janssen, JS BIOCAD, Leo-Pharma, Eli Lilly, Mylan, Novartis, Pfizer, Regeneron, Roche, Sandoz, Samsung-Bioepis, Sanofi, UCB, Grant/research support from: Abbvie, Almirall, Amgen, Boehringer Ingelheim, Celgene, Janssen, Leo-Pharma, Eli Lilly, Novartis, Pfizer, Regeneron, Roche, Sanofi, UCB, Adam Reich Speakers bureau: Abbvie, Novartis, Janssen, Pfizer, Sandoz, Galderma, Eli Lilly, Consultant of: Abbvie, Novartis, Janssen, Pfizer, Sandoz, Galderma, Eli Lilly, Thorsten Holzkaemper Shareholder of: Eli Lilly and Company, Employee of: Eli Lilly and Company, Alan Brnabic Shareholder of: Eli Lilly and Company, Employee of: Eli Lilly and Company, Khai Ng Shareholder of: Eli Lilly and Company, Employee of: Eli Lilly and Company, Soyi Liu Leage Shareholder of: Eli Lilly and Company, Employee of: Eli Lilly and Company, Christopher Schuster Shareholder of: Eli Lilly and Company, Employee of: Eli Lilly and Company, Andreas Pinter Speakers bureau: AbbVie, Almirall-Hermal, Amgen, Biogen Idec, Biontec, Boehringer-Ingelheim, Celgene, GSK, Eli Lilly, Galderma, Hexal, Janssen, LEO-Pharma, MC2, Medac, Merck Serono, Mitsubishi, MSD, Novartis, Pascoe, Pfizer, Tigercat Pharma, Regeneron, Roche, Sandoz Biopharmaceuticals, Sanofi-Genzyme, Schering-Plough and UCB Pharma, Consultant of: AbbVie, Almirall-Hermal, Amgen, Biogen Idec, Biontec, Boehringer-Ingelheim, Celgene, GSK, Eli Lilly, Galderma, Hexal, Janssen, LEO-Pharma, MC2, Medac, Merck Serono, Mitsubishi, MSD, Novartis, Pascoe, Pfizer, Tigercat Pharma, Regeneron, Roche, Sandoz Biopharmaceuticals, Sanofi-Genzyme, Schering-Plough and UCB Pharma

Genetic analysis of right heart structure and function in 40,000 people

Congenital heart diseases often involve maldevelopment of the evolutionarily recent right heart chamber. To gain insight into right heart structure and function, we fine-tuned deep learning models to recognize the right atrium, right ventricle and pulmonary artery, measuring right heart structures in 40,000 individuals from the UK Biobank with magnetic resonance imaging. Genome-wide association studies identified 130 distinct loci associated with at least one right heart measurement, of which 72 were not associated with left heart structures. Loci were found near genes previously linked with congenital heart disease, including NKX2-5, TBX5/TBX3, WNT9B and GATA4. A genome-wide polygenic predictor of right ventricular ejection fraction was associated with incident dilated cardiomyopathy (hazard ratio, 1.33 per standard deviation; P = 7.1 × 10-13) and remained significant after accounting for a left ventricular polygenic score. Harnessing deep learning to perform large-scale cardiac phenotyping, our results yield insights into the genetic determinants of right heart structure and function.

OP0142 COMPARISON OF ATTAINMENT AND PROTECTIVE EFFECTS OF THE LUPUS LOW DISEASE ACTIVITY STATE IN PATIENTS WITH NEWLY DIAGNOSED VERSUS ESTABLISHED SLE - A MULTICENTRE PROSPECTIVE STUDY

Background

Lupus low disease activity state (LLDAS) attainment has been reported to be associated with reduced damage accrual, flare, and mortality, as well as improved quality of life, in cohorts of SLE patients with established disease. Whether these associations are present in recent-onset disease is less well known.

Objectives

To evaluate the associations of LLDAS attainment with outcomes in patients with recent onset SLE.

Methods

Data from a 13-country longitudinal SLE cohort (ACR/SLICC criteria) were collected prospectively between 2013 and 2020 using standard templates. Organ damage and flare were captured using SLICC Damage Index and SELENA-SLEDAI Flare Index, respectively. LLDAS was defined as Golder et al., 2019 [1]. An inception cohort was defined based on duration since SLE diagnosis<1 year at enrolment. Patient characteristics between inception and non-inception cohorts were compared using Wilcoxon rank-sum (continuous variables) or Pearson’s Chi-squared tests (categorical variables). Survival analyses were performed to examine the association between LLDAS attainment and damage accrual and flare.

Results

The study cohort included 4,106 patients of whom 680 (16%) were recruited within 1 year of SLE diagnosis (inception cohort). Compared to the non-inception cohort, inception cohort patients were significantly younger, had higher disease activity (SLEDAI-2K and physician global assessment), used more glucocorticoids and immunosuppressants but had less organ damage at enrolment and only 88 (13.6%) patients accrued damage during a median 2.2 years follow-up (Table 1).

Table 1.Non-inception cohortInception cohortp-valuen=3426n=680Age at enrolment (years), median [IQR]40 [31, 51]33 [25, 44]<0.001Age at diagnosis (years), median [IQR]28 [21, 38]33 [25, 43]<0.001SLE duration at enrolment (years), median [IQR]10 [5, 16]1 [0, 1]<0.001Study duration (years), median [IQR]2.5 [1.0, 5.4]2.2 [0.9, 3.7]<0.001Females, n (%)3155 (92.1%)623 (91.6%)0.68Asian ethnicity, n (%)3037 (89.1%)595 (88.1%)0.49Prednisolone (PNL) use - ever, n (%)2865 (83.6%)620 (91.2%)<0.001Time adjusted mean (TAM)-PNL, median [IQR]5.0 [2.2, 8.6]6.2 [3.2, 10.3]<0.001Cumulative PNL (g), median [IQR]3.4 [0.5, 9.7]3.8 [1.1, 8.5]0.26Anti-Malarial use - ever, n (%)2669 (77.9%)569 (83.7%)<0.001Immunosupressant use -ever, n (%)2367 (69.1%)521 (76.6%)<0.001AMS (TAM-SLEDAI-2K), median [IQR]2.8 [1.2, 4.6]3.1 [1.6, 5.0]0.002TAM-PGA, median [IQR]0.4 [0.2, 0.7]0.4 [0.3, 0.8]<0.001Mild/moderate/severe flare ever, n (%)1789 (52.2%)391 (57.5%)0.012Organ damage accrual, n (%)629 (20.8%)88 (13.6%)<0.001LLDAS at baseline, n (%)1730 (50.5%)195 (28.7%)<0.001LLDAS-ever (at least once), n (%)2637 (78.2%)492 (73.9%)0.014≥50% time in LLDAS (LLDAS-5), n (%)1612 (50.6%)256 (41.1%)<0.001

Significantly fewer inception cohort patients were in LLDAS at enrolment than the non-inception cohort (29% vs. 51%, p<0.001). However, 74% of inception and 78% of non-inception cohort patients achieved LLDAS at least once during follow-up. Limiting analysis only to patients not in LLDAS at enrolment, time to first LLDAS attainment was assessed: inception cohort patients were 60% more likely to attain their first LLDAS (HR = 1.60 (95%CI: 1.40, 1.82), p<0.001) than non-inception cohort patients. LLDAS attainment was significantly protective against flare in the inception (HR, 95% CI) and non-inception (HR, 95% CI) cohorts. Trends towards protection against damage accrual in association with LLDAS in the inception cohort were not significant.

Conclusion

LLDAS attainment is protective from flare in recent onset SLE. Significant protection from damage accrual was not observed, due to low rates of damage accrual in the first years after SLE diagnosis.

References

[1]Golder, V., et al., Lupus low disease activity state as a treatment endpoint for systemic lupus erythematosus: a prospective validation study. The Lancet Rheumatology, 2019. 1(2): p. e95-e102.

Acknowledgements

We thank all patients participating in the Asia Pacific Lupus Collaboration (APLC) cohort, and all data collectors for their ongoing support for APLC research activities.

The APLC has received unrestricted project grants from AstraZeneca, BMS, Eli Lily, Janssen, Merck Serono, and UCB to support data collection contributing to this work.

Disclosure of Interests

Vera Golder: None declared, Rangi Kandane-Rathnayake: None declared, Worawit Louthrenoo: None declared, Yi-Hsing Chen Speakers bureau: Pfizer, Novartis, Abbvie, Johnson & Johnson, BMS, Roche, Lilly, GSK, Astra& Zeneca, Sanofi, MSD, Guigai, Astellas, Inova Diagnostics, UCB, Agnitio Science Technology, United Biopharma, Thermo Fisher, Consultant of: Pfizer, Novartis, Abbvie, Johnson & Johnson, BMS, Roche, Lilly, GSK, Astra and Zeneca, Sanofi, Guigai, Astellas, Inova Diagnostics, UCB, Agnitio Science Technology, United Biopharma, Thermo Fisher, Gilead, Grant/research support from: Yes. Clinical trials and/or research grants from Pfizer, Norvatis, BMS, Abbevie, Johnson & Johnson, Roche,Sanofi, Guigai, Roche, Boehringer Ingelheim, UCB, MSD, Astra-Zeneca,Astellas, Gilead, Jiacai Cho: None declared, Aisha Lateef: None declared, Laniyati Hamijoyo Speakers bureau: Pfizer, Novartis, Abbot, Shue Fen Luo: None declared, Yeong-Jian Jan Wu Speakers bureau: Pfizer, Lilly, Novartis, Abbvie, Sandra Navarra Speakers bureau: Pfizer, Johnson & Johnson, Novartis, Astellas, Grant/research support from: Astellas, Johnson & Johnson, Leonid Zamora: None declared, Zhanguo Li Speakers bureau: Eli, Lilly, Novartis, GSK, AbbVie, Paid instructor for: Pfizer, Roche, Johnson, Consultant of: Lilly, Pfizer, Grant/research support from: Pfizer, Yuan An: None declared, Sargunan Sockalingam Speakers bureau: Yes. Pfizer, Roche, Novartis, Grant/research support from: Roche and Novartis, Yasuhiro Katsumata Speakers bureau: Chugai Pharmaceutical Co., Ltd., Glaxo-Smithkline K.K., and Sanofi K.K., Masayoshi Harigai Speakers bureau: MH has received speaker’s fee from AbbVie Japan GK, Ayumi Pharmaceutical Co., Boehringer Ingelheim Japan, Inc.,Bristol Myers Squibb Co., Ltd., Chugai Pharmaceutical Co., Ltd., Eisai Co., Ltd., Eli Lilly Japan K.K., GlaxoSmithKline K.K., Kissei Pharmaceutical Co., Ltd., Pfizer Japan Inc., Takeda Pharmaceutical Co., Ltd., and Teijin Pharma Ltd, Consultant of: MH is a consultant for AbbVie, Boehringer-ingelheim, Bristol Myers Squibb Co., Kissei Pharmaceutical Co.,Ltd. and Teijin Pharma., Grant/research support from: MH has received research grants from AbbVie Japan GK, Asahi Kasei Corp., Astellas Pharma Inc., Ayumi Pharmaceutical Co., Bristol Myers Squibb Co., Ltd., Chugai Pharmaceutical Co., Daiichi-Sankyo, Inc.,Eisai Co., Ltd., Kissei Pharmaceutical Co., Ltd., Mitsubishi Tanabe Pharma Co., Nippon Kayaku Co., Ltd., Sekiui Medical, Shionogi & Co., Ltd., Taisho Pharmaceutical Co., Ltd., Takeda Pharmaceutical Co., Ltd., and Teijin Pharma Ltd., Yanjie Hao: None declared, Zhuoli Zhang Speakers bureau: Norvatis, GSK, Pfizer, BMDB Basnayake: None declared, Madelynn Chan Speakers bureau: AbbVie, Novartis, Consultant of: Advisory Board member for Pfizer, Eli-Lilly, Jun Kikuchi: None declared, Tsutomu Takeuchi Speakers bureau: AbbVie AYUMI Pharmaceutical Corp. Bristol-Myers Squibb Chugai Pharmaceutical Co, Ltd. Daiichi Sankyo Co., Ltd. Eisai Co., Ltd. Eli Lilly Japan, Gilead Sciences, Inc. Mitsubishi-Tanabe Pharma Corp. Pfizer Japan Inc. Sanofi K.K., Consultant of: Astellas Pharma, Inc. Chugai Pharmaceutical Co, Ltd. Eli Lilly Japan, Mitsubishi-Tanabe Pharma Corp., Grant/research support from: AbbVie Asahikasei Pharma Corp. Chugai Pharmaceutical Co, Ltd. Mitsubishi-Tanabe Pharma Corp. Sanofi K.K, Sang-Cheol Bae: None declared, Sean O’Neill Paid instructor for: Advisory board member for GSK, Fiona Goldblatt: None declared, Shereen Oon: None declared, Kathryn Gibson Speakers bureau: UCB, Consultant of: Novartis – co-chair for NSW and steering committee member for ARISE meeting Feb 2021

Janssen Pharmaceuticals – advisory board, Grant/research support from: Novartis, Employee of: Eli Lilly, Kristine Ng Speakers bureau: speaker fees and advisory board (Abbvie, Novartis, Janssen), Annie Law: None declared, Nicola Tugnet: None declared, Sunil Kumar: None declared, Cherica Tee: None declared, Michael Tee: None declared, Yoshiya Tanaka Speakers bureau: Daiichi-Sankyo, Eli Lilly, Novartis, YL Biologics, Bristol-Myers, Eisai, Chugai, Abbvie, Astellas, Pfizer, Sanofi, Asahi-kasei, GSK, Mitsubishi-Tanabe, Gilead, Janssen, Grant/research support from: Daiichi-Sankyo, Eli Lilly, Novartis, YL Biologics, Bristol-Myers, Eisai, Chugai, Abbvie, Astellas, Pfizer, Sanofi, Asahi-kasei, GSK, Mitsubishi-Tanabe, Gilead, Janssen, C.S. Lau Shareholder of: Pfizer, Sanofi and Janssen, Mandana Nikpour Speakers bureau: Actelion, GSK, Janssen, Pfizer, UCB, Paid instructor for: UCB, Consultant of: Actelion, Boehringer Ingelheim, Certa Therapeutics, Eli Lilly, GSK, Janssen, Pfizer, UCB, Grant/research support from: Actelion, Astra Zeneca, BMS, GSK, Janssen, UCB, Alberta Hoi Consultant of: AH is on the advisory board for Abbvie and GSK, Grant/research support from: AH has received research support from AstraZeneca, GSK, BMS, Janssen, and Merck Serono, Eric F. Morand Speakers bureau: AstraZeneca, Paid instructor for: Eli Lilly, Consultant of: AstraZeneca, Amgen, Biogen, BristolMyersSquibb, Eli Lilly, EMD Serono, Genentech, Janssen, Grant/research support from: AstraZeneca, BristolMyersSquibb, Eli Lilly, EMD Serono, Janssen

AB0428 TREATMENT PATTERNS OF SYSTEMIC LUPUS ERYTHEMATOSUS PATIENTS IN TAIWAN – A POPULATION-BASED ANALYSIS

Background

Systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) is a chronic, autoimmune disease of an unknown etiology with a broad spectrum of organ manifestations, and patients with SLE have limited treatment options to NSAIDS, glucocorticoids, hydroxychloroquine and immunosuppressants. There is a lack of real-world evidence related to treatment patterns of SLE patients in Taiwan.

Objectives

To describe the real-world patient demographics, clinical characteristics, and treatment patterns of patients with SLE in Taiwan.

Methods

A retrospective observational study using Taiwan’s National Health Insurance Research Database (NHIRD) from 1/1/2014 to 12/31/2019 was undertaken. Patients holding catastrophic illness certificates for SLE in 2015-2017 were identified. Enrolled patients aged ≥ 18 years were then divided into three groups (mild, moderate, and severe) based on the highest severity patients experienced in the one year following the enrollment date using a published claims-based algorithm (Garris et al 2013) that incorporates the Systemic Lupus Erythematosus Disease Activity Index, Systemic Lupus Activity Measure, British Isles Lupus Assessment Group Index and expert clinical opinion, and indexed upon the first date of entering the severity group. Baseline patient characteristics and treatment patterns during the follow-up period were measured. The types of treatment considered were NSAIDs, glucocorticoids, hydroxychloroquine and immunosuppressants.

Results

A total of 20,181 patients with catastrophic illness certificates for SLE were included in this study. The mean age of all SLE patients was 46.5 years and patients were mostly female (89.1%). The mean Charlson Comorbidity Index (CCI) score of all SLE patients was 1.5 (SD 1.3). Of these patients, 29.3% (n=5,918) had mild SLE activity, 60.7% (n=12,253) moderate and 10.0% (n=2,010) severe. During the one-year follow-up period, moderate to severe patients had numerically higher utilization rate of all types of treatment compared with mild patients (Table 1). Of all oral glucocorticoid users,27.8% of severe patients used high-dose glucocorticoids (> 15 mg/day) compared to <0.1% for mild and 9.7% for moderate patients. More than 70.0% of moderate to severe patients were prescribed 2 or more types of treatment at the same point of time. Of these patients having concomitant treatment of glucocorticoids with immunosuppressants, glucocorticoid dosage increased with the number of immunosuppressant used, especially in severe patients. 80.4% of moderate to severe patients received glucocorticoid-based therapy as the first-line treatment and the median treatment duration was 3.1 months. The median treatment duration of each first-line immunosuppressant ranged from 0.9 to 4.8 months in moderate to severe patients.

Table 1.

SLE treatment utilization during the 1-year follow-up period

Total (n=20,181)`Mild (n=5,918)Moderate (n=12,253)Severe (n=2,010)n%n%n%n%NSAID7,21235.71,40523.74,98340.782441.0Glucocorticoid14,01969.52,01534.110,29784.01,70784.9Hydroxychloroquine13,27865.82,86748.58,97073.21,44171.7Immunosuppressant7,63037.800.06,31951.61,31165.2Methotrexate8984.500.07866.41125.6Azathioprine5,64228.000.04,84339.579939.8Leflunomide1320.700.01171.0150.8Cyclosporin8544.200.07155.81396.9Mycophenolate9594.800.07746.31859.2Cyclophosphamide7903.900.0170.177338.5

Conclusion

The complexity and intensity of therapeutic approaches in SLE were associated with increased disease severity and patients were often resistant to treatment. These findings reflect the disease burden in SLE patients and suggest there is a substantial unmet need in the SLE treatment paradigm for moderate to severe SLE patients.

References

[1]Garris C, et al. J Med Econ. 2013;16:667–677.

Disclosure of Interests

Yu Sheng Chang: None declared, Wen-Nan Huang: None declared, Chao-Hsiun Tang: None declared, Khai Ng Shareholder of: I am a minor shareholder of Eli Lilly & Company, Employee of: I am an employee of Eli Lilly & Company, Po-Ya Chuang Consultant of: I am a paid consultant for Eli Lilly &Company, Wesley Furnback Consultant of: I am a paid consultant for Eli Lilly & Company, Bruce Wang Consultant of: I am a paid consultant for Eli Lilly & Company, Ching-Yun Wei Shareholder of: I am a minor shareholder of Eli Lilly & Company, Employee of: I am an employee of Eli Lilly & Company, Bradley Wang Shareholder of: I am a minor shareholder of Eli Lilly & Company, Employee of: I am an employee of Eli Lilly & Company

, Tamas Treuer Shareholder of: I am a minor shareholder of Eli Lilly & Company, Employee of: I am an employee of Eli Lilly & Company

Childhood Height Growth Rate Association With the Risk of Islet Autoimmunity and Development of Type 1 Diabetes

CONTEXT

Rapid growth has been suggested to promote islet autoimmunity and progression to type 1 diabetes (T1D). Childhood growth has not been analyzed separately from the infant growth period in most previous studies, but it may have distinct features due to differences between the stages of development.

OBJECTIVE

We aimed to analyze the association of childhood growth with development of islet autoimmunity and progression to T1D diagnosis in children 1 to 8 years of age.

METHODS

Longitudinal data of childhood growth and development of islet autoimmunity and T1D were analyzed in a prospective cohort study including 10 145 children from Finland, Germany, Sweden, and the United States, 1-8 years of age with at least 3 height and weight measurements and at least 1 measurement of islet autoantibodies. The primary outcome was the appearance of islet autoimmunity and progression from islet autoimmunity to T1D.

RESULTS

Rapid increase in height (cm/year) was associated with increased risk of seroconversion to glutamic acid decarboxylase autoantibody, insulin autoantibody, or insulinoma-like antigen-2 autoantibody (hazard ratio [HR] = 1.26 [95% CI = 1.05, 1.51] for 1-3 years of age and HR = 1.48 [95% CI = 1.28, 1.73] for >3 years of age). Furthermore, height rate was positively associated with development of T1D (HR = 1.80 [95% CI = 1.15, 2.81]) in the analyses from seroconversion with insulin autoantibody to diabetes.

CONCLUSION

Rapid height growth rate in childhood is associated with increased risk of islet autoimmunity and progression to T1D. Further work is needed to investigate the biological mechanism that may explain this association.

Human-centered explainability for life sciences, healthcare, and medical informatics

Rapid advances in artificial intelligence (AI) and availability of biological, medical, and healthcare data have enabled the development of a wide variety of models. Significant success has been achieved in a wide range of fields, such as genomics, protein folding, disease diagnosis, imaging, and clinical tasks. Although widely used, the inherent opacity of deep AI models has brought criticism from the research field and little adoption in clinical practice. Concurrently, there has been a significant amount of research focused on making such methods more interpretable, reviewed here, but inherent critiques of such explainability in AI (XAI), its requirements, and concerns with fairness/robustness have hampered their real-world adoption. We here discuss how user-driven XAI can be made more useful for different healthcare stakeholders through the definition of three key personas-data scientists, clinical researchers, and clinicians-and present an overview of how different XAI approaches can address their needs. For illustration, we also walk through several research and clinical examples that take advantage of XAI open-source tools, including those that help enhance the explanation of the results through visualization. This perspective thus aims to provide a guidance tool for developing explainability solutions for healthcare by empowering both subject matter experts, providing them with a survey of available tools, and explainability developers, by providing examples of how such methods can influence in practice adoption of solutions.

Osimertinib and anti-HER3 combination therapy engages immune dependent tumor toxicity via STING activation in trans

Over the past decade, immunotherapy delivered novel treatments for many cancer types. However, lung cancer still leads cancer mortality, and non-small-cell lung carcinoma patients with mutant EGFR cannot benefit from checkpoint inhibitors due to toxicity, relying only on palliative chemotherapy and the third-generation tyrosine kinase inhibitor (TKI) osimertinib. This new drug extends lifespan by 9-months vs. second-generation TKIs, but unfortunately, cancers relapse due to resistance mechanisms and the lack of antitumor immune responses. Here we explored the combination of osimertinib with anti-HER3 monoclonal antibodies and observed that the immune system contributed to eliminate tumor cells in mice and co-culture experiments using bone marrow-derived macrophages and human PBMCs. Osimertinib led to apoptosis of tumors but simultaneously, it triggered inositol-requiring-enzyme (IRE1α)-dependent HER3 upregulation, increased macrophage infiltration, and activated cGAS in cancer cells to produce cGAMP (detected by a lentivirally transduced STING activity biosensor), transactivating STING in macrophages. We sought to target osimertinib-induced HER3 upregulation with monoclonal antibodies, which engaged Fc receptor-dependent tumor elimination by macrophages, and STING agonists enhanced macrophage-mediated tumor elimination further. Thus, by engaging a tumor non-autonomous mechanism involving cGAS-STING and innate immunity, the combination of osimertinib and anti-HER3 antibodies could improve the limited therapeutic and stratification options for advanced stage lung cancer patients with mutant EGFR.

781 IMPROVING THE QUALITY OF DO NOT ATTEMPT CARDIO-PULMONARY RESUSCITATION (DNACPR) FORM COMPLETION

Introduction

The completion of a Do Not Attempt Cardio-Pulmonary Resuscitation (DNACPR) form represents an important part of patient care. However, this can be a sensitive process that has gained national media interest. The aim of this Quality Improvement (QI) Project was to improve the quality of DNACPR form completion in a Care of the Elderly Department.

Methods

The QI project ran from May 2019 to January 2021 and was overseen by a multi-disciplinary team (including patient representation). DNACPR forms on the Care of the Elderly wards were audited monthly against 7 standards which correspond to key sections on the DNACPR form. During the data collection process, interventions were implemented using Plan-Do-Study-Act cycles. Interventions included: appointing ‘DNACPR Champions’ to complete monthly audits and provide personalised clinician feedback, the introduction of a new mandatory e-learning module, the creation of an alert system on nerve centre (the Trust’s electronic handover system) and the development of new DNACPR patient information including webpage development, videos and leaflets.

Results

The project has led to sustained improvements in majority of the 7 standards. The biggest improvements were seen in the inclusion of a review date, correct completion of the mental capacity assessment and the use of patient information leaflets. The documentation of discussions with patient and relatives remained below the audit standards and was largely unchanged during the QI project.

Conclusion

A multi-disciplinary and multi-faceted QI approach has shown to improve the quality of DNACPR form completion. Further work is needed to continue this process and a focus on staff training and ward-level processes will be the priority.

Association of the Interaction Between Familial Hypercholesterolemia Variants and Adherence to a Healthy Lifestyle With Risk of Coronary Artery Disease

IMPORTANCE

Familial hypercholesterolemia variants impair clearance of cholesterol from the circulation and increase risk of coronary artery disease (CAD). The extent to which adherence to a healthy lifestyle is associated with a lower risk of CAD in carriers and noncarriers of variants warrants further study.

OBJECTIVE

To assess the association of the interaction between familial hypercholesterolemia variants and adherence to a healthy lifestyle with risk of CAD.

DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS

This cross-sectional study used 2 independent data sets with gene sequencing and lifestyle data from the UK Biobank: a case-control study of 4896 cases and 5279 controls and a cohort study of 39 920 participants. Participants were recruited from 22 sites across the UK between March 21, 2006, and October 1, 2010. The case-control study included participants with CAD and controls at enrollment. The cohort study used a convenience sample of individuals with available gene sequencing data. Statistical analysis was performed from April 2, 2019, to January 20, 2022.

EXPOSURES

Pathogenic or likely pathogenic DNA variants classified by a clinical laboratory geneticist and adherence to a healthy lifestyle based on a 4-point scoring system (1 point for each of the following: healthy diet, regular exercise, not smoking, and absence of obesity).

MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES

Coronary artery disease, defined as myocardial infarction in the case-control study, and myocardial infarction, ischemic heart disease, or coronary revascularization procedure in the cohort study.

RESULTS

The case-control study included 10 175 participants (6828 men [67.1%]; mean [SD] age, 58.6 [7.2] years), and the cohort study included 39 920 participants (18 802 men [47.1%]; mean [SD] age at the end of follow-up, 66.4 [8.0] years). A variant was identified in 35 of 4896 cases (0.7%) and 12 of 5279 controls (0.2%), corresponding to an odds ratio of 3.0 (95% CI, 1.6-5.9), and a variant was identified in 108 individuals (0.3%) in the cohort study, in which the hazard ratio for CAD was 3.8 (95% CI, 2.5-5.8). However, this risk appeared to vary according to lifestyle categories in both carriers and noncarriers of familial hypercholesterolemia variants, without a significant interaction between carrier status and lifestyle (odds ratio, 1.2 [95% CI, 0.6-2.5]; P = .62). Among carriers, a favorable lifestyle conferred 86% lower risk of CAD compared with an unfavorable lifestyle (hazard ratio, 0.14 [95% CI, 0.04-0.41]). The estimated risk of CAD by the age of 75 years varied according to lifestyle, ranging from 10.2% among noncarriers with a favorable lifestyle to 24.0% among noncarriers with an unfavorable lifestyle and ranging from 34.5% among carriers with a favorable lifestyle to 66.2% among carriers with an unfavorable lifestyle.

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE

This study suggests that, among carriers and noncarriers of a familial hypercholesterolemia variant, significant gradients in risk of CAD are noted according to adherence to a healthy lifestyle pattern. Similar to the general population, individuals who carry familial hypercholesterolemia variants are likely to benefit from lifestyle interventions to reduce their risk of CAD.

State of the Art Causal Inference in the Presence of Extraneous Covariates: A Simulation Study

The central task of causal inference is to remove (via statistical adjustment) confounding bias that would be present in naive unadjusted comparisons of outcomes in different treatment groups. Statistical adjustment can roughly be broken down into two steps. In the first step, the researcher selects some set of variables to adjust for. In the second step, the researcher implements a causal inference algorithm to adjust for the selected variables and estimate the average treatment effect. In this paper, we use a simulation study to explore the operating characteristics and robustness of state-of-the-art methods for step two (statistical adjustment for selected variables) when step one (variable selection) is performed in a realistically sub-optimal manner. More specifically, we study the robustness of a cross-fit machine learning based causal effect estimator to the presence of extraneous variables in the adjustment set. The take-away for practitioners is that there is value to, if possible, identifying a small sufficient adjustment set using subject matter knowledge even when using machine learning methods for adjustment.

Impact of Clinical and Genomic Factors on COVID-19 Disease Severity

To date, there have been 180 million confirmed cases of COVID-19, with more than 3.8 million deaths, reported to WHO worldwide. In this paper we address the problem of understanding the host genome's influence, in concert with clinical variables, on the severity of COVID-19 manifestation in the patient. Leveraging positive-unlabeled machine learning algorithms coupled with RubricOE, a state-of-the-art genomic analysis framework, on UK BioBank data we extract novel insights on the complex interplay. The algorithm is also sensitive enough to detect the changing influence of the emergent B.1.1.7 SARS-CoV-2 (alpha) variant on disease severity, and, changing treatment protocols. The genomic component also implicates biological pathways that can help in understanding the disease etiology. Our work demonstrates that it is possible to build a robust and sensitive model despite significant bias, noise and incompleteness in both clinical and genomic data by a careful interleaving of clinical and genomic methodologies.

Virtual medical research mentoring and collaboration: breaking the bounds of nationality during the COVID-19 pandemic

Funding Acknowledgements

Type of funding sources: None.

OnBehalf

Cardioovascular Analytics Group

Background

Medical research is critical to professional advancement, and mentoring is an important means of early research engagement in medical training. In contrast to international research collaborations, research mentoring programs are often locally limited. With the COVID-19 pandemic causing drifts to virtual classes and conferences, virtual international medical research mentoring may be viable. We hereby describe our experience with a virtual, international mentorship group for cardiovascular research.

Methods

Our virtual international research mentorship group has been running since 2015. The group focuses on risk stratification and outcomes research in cardiovascular medicine and epidemiology. Mentees from any country or region in all stages of medical careers are welcomed. Considering the increasing emphasis of contemporary research on multidisciplinary healthcare and translational research, our team also includes allied healthcare professionals or students, and graduates from natural sciences (Figure 1). With our members’ diverse backgrounds, we firmly adhere to the principle that all members must be given equal opportunities and treatment, regardless of their age, gender, race, nationality, sexual orientation, family background, and institution of study or practice. We make use of virtual platforms and multi-level mentoring (both senior and peer mentoring), and emphasize active participation, early leadership, open culture, accessible research support, and a distributed research workflow (i.e. an accessible-distributed model).

Results

Since establishment, our group has expanded to include 63 active members from 14 countries (Figure 2), leading a total of 109 peer-reviewed original studies and reviews published. We observed no significant difficulty in communication between team members, nor conflicts due to differences in nationality or ethnicity. Most studies involve cross-country and ethnicity collaborations, and inter-disciplinary and inter-regional knowledge exchanges are frequent. Multi-level mentoring ensured mentoring quality without compromising bonding and communication.

Conclusion

An accessible-distributed model of virtual international medical research collaboration and multi-level mentoring is viable, efficient, and caters to the needs of contemporary healthcare. We hope that others will build similar models and improve medical research mentoring globally.

Islet Autoantibody Type-Specific Titer Thresholds Improve Stratification of Risk of Progression to Type 1 Diabetes in Children

OBJECTIVE

To use islet autoantibody titers to improve the estimation of future type 1 diabetes risk in children.

RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS

Prospective cohort studies in Finland, Germany, Sweden, and the U.S. followed 24,662 children at increased genetic or familial risk to develop islet autoimmunity and diabetes. For 1,604 children with confirmed positivity, titers of autoantibodies against insulin (IAA), GAD antibodies (GADA), and insulinoma-associated antigen 2 (IA-2A) were harmonized for diabetes risk analyses.

RESULTS

Survival analysis from time of confirmed positivity revealed markedly different 5-year diabetes risks associated with IAA (n = 909), GADA (n = 1,076), and IA-2A (n = 714), when stratified by quartiles of titer, ranging from 19% (GADA 1st quartile) to 60% (IA-2A 4th quartile). The minimum titer associated with a maximum difference in 5-year risk differed for each autoantibody, corresponding to the 58.6th, 52.4th, and 10.2nd percentile of children specifically positive for each of IAA, GADA, and IA-2A, respectively. Using these autoantibody type-specific titer thresholds in the 1,481 children with all autoantibodies tested, the 5-year risk conferred by single (n = 954) and multiple (n = 527) autoantibodies could be stratified from 6 to 75% (P < 0.0001). The thresholds effectively identified children with a ≥50% 5-year risk when considering age-specific autoantibody screening (57-65% positive predictive value and 56-74% sensitivity for ages 1-5 years). Multivariable analysis confirmed the significance of associations between the three autoantibody titers and diabetes risk, informing a childhood risk surveillance strategy.

CONCLUSIONS

This study defined islet autoantibody type-specific titer thresholds that significantly improved type 1 diabetes risk stratification in children.