No need for disease: testing extinction hypotheses for the thylacine using multi-species metamodels

Small populations of Palaeolithic humans in Cyprus hunted endemic megafauna to extinction

The hypothesized main drivers of megafauna extinctions in the late Quaternary have wavered between over-exploitation by humans and environmental change, with recent investigations demonstrating more nuanced synergies between these drivers depending on taxon, spatial scale, and region. However, most studies still rely on comparing archaeologically based chronologies of timing of initial human arrival into naïve ecosystems and palaeontologically inferred dates of megafauna extinctions. Conclusions arising from comparing chronologies also depend on the reliability of dated evidence, dating uncertainties, and correcting for the low probability of preservation (Signor-Lipps effect). While some models have been developed to test the susceptibility of megafauna to theoretical offtake rates, none has explicitly linked human energetic needs, prey choice, and hunting efficiency to examine the plausibility of human-driven extinctions. Using the island of Cyprus in the terminal Pleistocene as an ideal test case because of its late human settlement (~14.2-13.2 ka), small area (~11 000 km2), and low megafauna diversity (2 species), we developed stochastic models of megafauna population dynamics, with offtake dictated by human energetic requirements, prey choice, and hunting-efficiency functions to test whether the human population at the end of the Pleistocene could have caused the extinction of dwarf hippopotamus (Phanourios minor) and dwarf elephants (Palaeoloxodon cypriotes). Our models reveal not only that the estimated human population sizes (n = 3000-7000) in Late Pleistocene Cyprus could have easily driven both species to extinction within < 1000 years, the model predictions match the observed, Signor-Lipps-corrected chronological sequence of megafauna extinctions inferred from the palaeontological record (P. minor at ~12-11.1 ka, followed by P. cypriotes at ~10.3-9.1 ka).

Resolving when (and where) the Thylacine went extinct

Like the Dodo and Passenger Pigeon before it, the predatory marsupial Thylacine (Thylacinus cynocephalus), or 'Tasmanian tiger', has become an iconic symbol of anthropogenic extinction. The last captive animal died in 1936, but even today reports of the Thylacine's possible ongoing survival in remote regions of Tasmania are newsworthy and capture the public's imagination. Extirpated from mainland Australia in the mid-Holocene, the island of Tasmania became the species' final stronghold. Following European settlement in the 1800s, the Thylacine was relentlessly persecuted and pushed to the margins of its range, although many sightings were reported thereafter-even well beyond the 1930s. To gain a new depth of insight into the extinction of the Thylacine, we assembled an exhaustive database of 1237 observational records from Tasmania (from 1910 onwards), quantified their uncertainty, and charted the patterns these revealed. We also developed a new method to visualize the species' 20th-century spatio-temporal dynamics, to map potential post-bounty refugia and pinpoint the most-likely location of the final persisting subpopulation. A direct reading of the high-quality records (confirmed kills and captures, in combination with sightings by past Thylacine hunters and trappers, wildlife professionals and experienced bushmen) implies a most-likely extinction date within four decades following the last capture (i.e., 1940s to 1970s). However, uncertainty modelling of the entire sighting record, where each observation is assigned a probability and the whole dataset is then subject to a sensitivity analysis, suggests that extinction might have been as recent as the late 1980s to early 2000s, with a small chance of persistence in the remote south-western wilderness areas. Beyond the intrinsically fascinating problem of reconstructing the final fate of the Thylacine, the new spatio-temporal mapping of extirpation developed herein would also be useful for conservation prioritization and search efforts for other rare taxa of uncertain status.

An Expanded Framework for Community Viability Analysis

Community viability analysis (CVA) has been put forth as an analogue for population viability analysis (PVA), an accepted conservation tool for evaluating species-specific threat and management scenarios. The original proposal recommended that CVAs examine resistance-based questions. PVAs, however, are broadly applicable to multiple types of viability questions, suggesting that the original CVA definition may be too narrow. In the present article, we advance an expanded framework in which CVA includes any analysis assessing the status, threats, or management options of an ecological community. We discuss viability questions that can be investigated with CVA. We group those inquiries into categories of resistance, resilience, and persistence, and provide case studies for each. Finally, we broadly present the steps in a CVA.

Relative demographic susceptibility does not explain the extinction chronology of Sahul's megafauna

The causes of Sahul’s megafauna extinctions remain uncertain, although several interacting factors were likely responsible. To examine the relative support for hypotheses regarding plausible ecological mechanisms underlying these extinctions, we constructed the first stochastic, age-structured models for 13 extinct megafauna species from five functional/taxonomic groups, as well as 8 extant species within these groups for comparison. Perturbing specific demographic rates individually, we tested which species were more demographically susceptible to extinction, and then compared these relative sensitivities to the fossil-derived extinction chronology. Our models show that the macropodiformes were the least demographically susceptible to extinction, followed by carnivores, monotremes, vombatiform herbivores, and large birds. Five of the eight extant species were as or more susceptible than the extinct species. There was no clear relationship between extinction susceptibility and the extinction chronology for any perturbation scenario, while body mass and generation length explained much of the variation in relative risk. Our results reveal that the actual mechanisms leading to the observed extinction chronology were unlikely related to variation in demographic susceptibility per se, but were possibly driven instead by finer-scale variation in climate change and/or human prey choice and relative hunting success.

The pre-Pleistocene fossil thylacinids (Dasyuromorphia: Thylacinidae) and the evolutionary context of the modern thylacine

The thylacine is popularly used as a classic example of convergent evolution between placental and marsupial mammals. Despite having a fossil history spanning over 20 million years and known since the 1960s, the thylacine is often presented in both scientific literature and popular culture as an evolutionary singleton unique in its morphological and ecological adaptations within the Australian ecosystem. Here, we synthesise and critically evaluate the current state of published knowledge regarding the known fossil record of Thylacinidae prior to the appearance of the modern species. We also present phylogenetic analyses and body mass estimates of the thylacinids to reveal trends in the evolution of hypercarnivory and ecological shifts within the family. We find support that Mutpuracinus archibaldi occupies an uncertain position outside of Thylacinidae, and consider Nimbacinus richi to likely be synonymous with N. dicksoni. The Thylacinidae were small-bodied (< ~8 kg) unspecialised faunivores until after the ~15-14 Ma middle Miocene climatic transition (MMCT). After the MMCT they dramatically increase in size and develop adaptations to a hypercarnivorous diet, potentially in response to the aridification of the Australian environment and the concomitant radiation of dasyurids. This fossil history of the thylacinids provides a foundation for understanding the ecology of the modern thylacine. It provides a framework for future studies of the evolution of hypercarnivory, cursoriality, morphological and ecological disparity, and convergence within mammalian carnivores.

A Y-chromosome shredding gene drive for controlling pest vertebrate populations

Self-replicating gene drives that modify sex ratios or infer a fitness cost could be used to control populations of invasive alien species. The targeted deletion of Y sex chromosomes using CRISPR technology offers a new approach for sex bias that could be incorporated within gene-drive designs. We introduce a novel gene-drive strategy termed Y-CHromosome deletion using Orthogonal Programmable Endonucleases (Y-CHOPE), incorporating a programmable endonuclease that ‘shreds’ the Y chromosome, thereby converting XY males into fertile XO females. Firstly, we demonstrate that the CRISPR/Cas12a system can eliminate the Y chromosome in embryonic stem cells with high efficiency (c. 90%). Next, using stochastic, individual-based models of a pest mouse population, we show that a Y-shredding drive that progressively depletes the pool of XY males could effect population eradication through mate limitation. Our molecular and modeling data suggest that a Y-CHOPE gene drive could be a viable tool for vertebrate pest control.

The Australian dingo: untamed or feral?

BACKGROUND

The Australian dingo continues to cause debate amongst Aboriginal people, pastoralists, scientists and the government in Australia. A lingering controversy is whether the dingo has been tamed and has now reverted to its ancestral wild state or whether its ancestors were domesticated and it now resides on the continent as a feral dog. The goal of this article is to place the discussion onto a theoretical framework, highlight what is currently known about dingo origins and taxonomy and then make a series of experimentally testable organismal, cellular and biochemical predictions that we propose can focus future research.

DISCUSSION

We consider a canid that has been unconsciously selected as a tamed animal and the endpoint of methodical or what we now call artificial selection as a domesticated animal. We consider wild animals that were formerly tamed as untamed and those wild animals that were formerly domesticated as feralized. Untamed canids are predicted to be marked by a signature of unconscious selection whereas feral animals are hypothesized to be marked by signatures of both unconscious and artificial selection. First, we review the movement of dingo ancestors into Australia. We then discuss how differences between taming and domestication may influence the organismal traits of skull morphometrics, brain and size, seasonal breeding, and sociability. Finally, we consider cellular and molecular level traits including hypotheses concerning the phylogenetic position of dingoes, metabolic genes that appear to be under positive selection and the potential for micronutrient compensation by the gut microbiome.

CONCLUSIONS

Western Australian Government policy is currently being revised to allow the widespread killing of the Australian dingo. These policies are based on an incomplete understanding of the evolutionary history of the canid and assume the dingo is feralized. However, accumulated evidence does not definitively show that the dingo was ever domesticated and additional focused research is required. We suggest that incorporating ancient DNA data into the debate concerning dingo origins will be pivotal to understanding the evolutionary history of the canid. Further, we advocate that future morphological, behavioural and genetic studies should focus on including genetically pure Alpine and Desert dingoes and not dingo-dog hybrids. Finally, we propose that future studies critically examine genes under selection in the dingo and employ the genome from a wild canid for comparison.

Hope and caution: rewilding to mitigate the impacts of biological invasions

Rewilding is a novel approach to ecological restoration. Trophic rewilding in particular aims to reinstate ecological functions, especially trophic interactions, through the introduction of animals. We consider the potential for trophic rewilding to address biological invasions. In this broad review, we note some of the important conceptual and ethical foundations of rewilding, including a focus on ecosystem function rather than composition, reliance on animal agency, and an appeal to an ethic of coexistence. Second, we use theory from invasion biology to highlight pathways by which rewilding might prevent or mitigate the impacts of an invasion, including increasing biotic resistance. Third, we use a series of case studies to illustrate how reintroductions can mitigate the impacts of invasions. These include reintroductions and positive management of carnivores and herbivores including European pine martens (Martes martes), Eurasian otters (Lutra lutra), dingoes (Canis dingo), Tasmanian devils (Sarcophilus harrisii) and tule elk (Cervus canadensis nannodes). Fourth, we consider the risk that rewilding may enable a biological invasion or aggravate its impacts. Lastly, we highlight lessons that rewilding science might take from invasion biology.This article is part of the theme issue 'Trophic rewilding: consequences for ecosystems under global change'.

Estimating the extinction date of the thylacine with mixed certainty data

The thylacine (Thylacinus cynocephalus), one of Australia's most characteristic megafauna, was the largest marsupial carnivore until hunting, and potentially disease, drove it to extinction in 1936. Although thylacines were restricted to Tasmania for 2 millennia prior to their extinction, recent so-called plausible sightings on the Cape York Peninsula in northern Queensland have emerged, leading some to speculate the species may have persisted undetected. We compiled a data set that included physical evidence, expert-validated sightings, and unconfirmed sightings up to the present day and implemented a range of extinction models (focusing on a Bayesian approach that incorporates all 3 types of data by modeling valid and invalid sightings as independent processes) to evaluate the likelihood of the thylacine's persistence. Although the last captive individual died in September 1936, our results suggested that the most likely extinction date would be 1940. Our other extinction models estimated the thylacine's extinction date between 1936 and 1943, and the most optimistic scenario indicated that the species did not persist beyond 1956. The search for the thylacine, much like similar efforts to rediscover other recently extinct charismatic taxa, is likely to be fruitless, especially given that persistence on Tasmania would have been no guarantee the species could reappear in regions that had been unoccupied for millennia. The search for the thylacine may become a rallying point for conservation and wildlife biology and could indirectly help fund and support critical research in understudied areas such as Cape York. However, our results suggest that attempts to rediscover the thylacine will be unsuccessful and that the continued survival of the thylacine is entirely implausible based on most current mathematical theories of extinction.

Using population viability analysis, genomics, and habitat suitability to forecast future population patterns of Little Owl Athene noctua across Europe

The agricultural scene has changed over the past decades, resulting in a declining population trend in many species. It is therefore important to determine the factors that the individual species depend on in order to understand their decline. The landscape changes have also resulted in habitat fragmentation, turning once continuous populations into metapopulations. It is thus increasingly important to estimate both the number of individuals it takes to create a genetically viable population and the population trend. Here, population viability analysis and habitat suitability modeling were used to estimate population viability and future prospects across Europe of the Little Owl Athene noctua, a widespread species associated with agricultural landscapes. The results show a high risk of population declines over the coming 100 years, especially toward the north of Europe, whereas populations toward the southeastern part of Europe have a greater probability of persistence. In order to be considered genetically viable, individual populations must count 1,000–30,000 individuals. As Little Owl populations of several countries count <30,000, and many isolated populations in northern Europe count <1,000 individuals, management actions resulting in exchange of individuals between populations or even countries are probably necessary to prevent losing <1% genetic diversity over a 100‐year period. At a continental scale, a habitat suitability analysis suggested Little Owl to be affected positively by increasing temperatures and urban areas, whereas an increased tree cover, an increasing annual rainfall, grassland, and sparsely vegetated areas affect the presence of the owl negatively. However, the low predictive power of the habitat suitability model suggests that habitat suitability might be better explained at a smaller scale.

Using global sensitivity analysis of demographic models for ecological impact assessment

Population viability analysis (PVA) is widely used to assess population-level impacts of environmental changes on species. When combined with sensitivity analysis, PVA yields insights into the effects of parameter and model structure uncertainty. This helps researchers prioritize efforts for further data collection so that model improvements are efficient and helps managers prioritize conservation and management actions. Usually, sensitivity is analyzed by varying one input parameter at a time and observing the influence that variation has over model outcomes. This approach does not account for interactions among parameters. Global sensitivity analysis (GSA) overcomes this limitation by varying several model inputs simultaneously. Then, regression techniques allow measuring the importance of input-parameter uncertainties. In many conservation applications, the goal of demographic modeling is to assess how different scenarios of impact or management cause changes in a population. This is challenging because the uncertainty of input-parameter values can be confounded with the effect of impacts and management actions. We developed a GSA method that separates model outcome uncertainty resulting from parameter uncertainty from that resulting from projected ecological impacts or simulated management actions, effectively separating the 2 main questions that sensitivity analysis asks. We applied this method to assess the effects of predicted sea-level rise on Snowy Plover (Charadrius nivosus). A relatively small number of replicate models (approximately 100) resulted in consistent measures of variable importance when not trying to separate the effects of ecological impacts from parameter uncertainty. However, many more replicate models (approximately 500) were required to separate these effects. These differences are important to consider when using demographic models to estimate ecological impacts of management actions.

Diversity of susceptible hosts in canine distemper virus infection: a systematic review and data synthesis

BACKGROUND

Canine distemper virus (CDV) is the etiological agent of one of the most infectious diseases of domestic dogs, also known as a highly prevalent viral infectious disease of carnivores and posing a conservation threat to endangered species around the world. To get a better panorama of CDV infection in different Orders, a retrospective and documental systematic review of the role of CDV in different non-dog hosts was conducted. The bibliographical data were collected from MedLine/PubMed and Scopus databases. Data related to Order, Family, Genus and Species of the infected animals, the presence or absence of clinical signs, mortality, serological, molecular or antigenic confirmation of CDV infection, geographic location, were collected and summarized.

RESULTS

Two hundred seventeen scientific articles were considered eligible which includes reports of serological evaluation, and antigenic or genomic confirmation of CDV infection in non-dog hosts. CDV infects naturally and experimentally different members of the Orders Carnivora (in 12 Families), Rodentia (four Families), Primates (two Families), Artiodactyla (three Families) and Proboscidea (one Family). The Order Carnivora (excluding domestic dogs) accounts for the vast majority (87.5%) of the records. Clinical disease associated with CDV infection was reported in 51.8% of the records and serological evidence of CDV infection in apparently healthy animals was found in 49.5% of the records. High mortality rate was showed in some of the recorded infections in Orders different to Carnivora. In non-dog hosts, CDV has been reported all continents with the exception of Australasia and in 43 different countries.

CONCLUSIONS

The results of this systematic review demonstrate that CDV is able to infect a very wide range of host species from many different Orders and emphasizes the potential threat of infection for endangered wild species as well as raising concerns about potential zoonotic threats following the cessation of large-scale measles vaccination campaigns in the human population.

Timing and severity of immunizing diseases in rabbits is controlled by seasonal matching of host and pathogen dynamics

Infectious diseases can exert a strong influence on the dynamics of host populations, but it remains unclear why such disease-mediated control only occurs under particular environmental conditions. We used 16 years of detailed field data on invasive European rabbits (Oryctolagus cuniculus) in Australia, linked to individual-based stochastic models and Bayesian approximations, to test whether (i) mortality associated with rabbit haemorrhagic disease (RHD) is driven primarily by seasonal matches/mismatches between demographic rates and epidemiological dynamics and (ii) delayed infection (arising from insusceptibility and maternal antibodies in juveniles) are important factors in determining disease severity and local population persistence of rabbits. We found that both the timing of reproduction and exposure to viruses drove recurrent seasonal epidemics of RHD. Protection conferred by insusceptibility and maternal antibodies controlled seasonal disease outbreaks by delaying infection; this could have also allowed escape from disease. The persistence of local populations was a stochastic outcome of recovery rates from both RHD and myxomatosis. If susceptibility to RHD is delayed, myxomatosis will have a pronounced effect on population extirpation when the two viruses coexist. This has important implications for wildlife management, because it is likely that such seasonal interplay and disease dynamics has a strong effect on long-term population viability for many species.

Reintroducing resurrected species: selecting DeExtinction candidates

Technological advances have raised the controversial prospect of resurrecting extinct species. Species DeExtinction should involve more than the production of biological orphans to be scrutinized in the laboratory or zoo. If DeExtinction is to realize its stated goals of deep ecological enrichment, then resurrected animals must be translocated (i.e., released within suitable habitat). Therefore, DeExtinction is a conservation translocation issue and the selection of potential DeExtinction candidates must consider the feasibility and risks associated with reintroduction. The International Union for the Conservation of Nature (IUCN) Guidelines on Reintroductions and Other Conservation Translocations provide a framework for DeExtinction candidate selection. We translate these Guidelines into ten questions to be addressed early on in the selection process to eliminate unsuitable reintroduction candidates. We apply these questions to the thylacine, Yangtze River Dolphin, and Xerces blue butterfly.

Metamodels for transdisciplinary analysis of wildlife population dynamics

Wildlife population models have been criticized for their narrow disciplinary perspective when analyzing complexity in coupled biological – physical – human systems. We describe a “metamodel” approach to species risk assessment when diverse threats act at different spatiotemporal scales, interact in non-linear ways, and are addressed by distinct disciplines. A metamodel links discrete, individual models that depict components of a complex system, governing the flow of information among models and the sequence of simulated events. Each model simulates processes specific to its disciplinary realm while being informed of changes in other metamodel components by accessing common descriptors of the system, populations, and individuals. Interactions among models are revealed as emergent properties of the system. We introduce a new metamodel platform, both to further explain key elements of the metamodel approach and as an example that we hope will facilitate the development of other platforms for implementing metamodels in population biology, species risk assessments, and conservation planning. We present two examples – one exploring the interactions of dispersal in metapopulations and the spread of infectious disease, the other examining predator-prey dynamics – to illustrate how metamodels can reveal complex processes and unexpected patterns when population dynamics are linked to additional extrinsic factors. Metamodels provide a flexible, extensible method for expanding population viability analyses beyond models of isolated population demographics into more complete representations of the external and intrinsic threats that must be understood and managed for species conservation.