Marine protected areas promote stability of reef fish communities under climate warming

Protection from direct human impacts can safeguard marine life, yet ocean warming crosses marine protected area boundaries. Here, we test whether protection offers resilience to marine heatwaves from local to network scales. We examine 71,269 timeseries of population abundances for 2269 reef fish species surveyed in 357 protected versus 747 open sites worldwide. We quantify the stability of reef fish abundance from populations to metacommunities, considering responses of species and functional diversity including thermal affinity of different trophic groups. Overall, protection mitigates adverse effects of marine heatwaves on fish abundance, community stability, asynchronous fluctuations and functional richness. We find that local stability is positively related to distance from centers of high human density only in protected areas. We provide evidence that networks of protected areas have persistent reef fish communities in warming oceans by maintaining large populations and promoting stability at different levels of biological organization.

Estimating co-extinction threats in terrestrial ecosystems

The biosphere is changing rapidly due to human endeavour. Because ecological communities underlie networks of interacting species, changes that directly affect some species can have indirect effects on others. Accurate tools to predict these direct and indirect effects are therefore required to guide conservation strategies. However, most extinction-risk studies only consider the direct effects of global change-such as predicting which species will breach their thermal limits under different warming scenarios-with predictions of trophic cascades and co-extinction risks remaining mostly speculative. To predict the potential indirect effects of primary extinctions, data describing community interactions and network modelling can estimate how extinctions cascade through communities. While theoretical studies have demonstrated the usefulness of models in predicting how communities react to threats like climate change, few have applied such methods to real-world communities. This gap partly reflects challenges in constructing trophic network models of real-world food webs, highlighting the need to develop approaches for quantifying co-extinction risk more accurately. We propose a framework for constructing ecological network models representing real-world food webs in terrestrial ecosystems and subjecting these models to co-extinction scenarios triggered by probable future environmental perturbations. Adopting our framework will improve estimates of how environmental perturbations affect whole ecological communities. Identifying species at risk of co-extinction (or those that might trigger co-extinctions) will also guide conservation interventions aiming to reduce the probability of co-extinction cascades and additional species losses.

Time-travelling pathogens and their risk to ecological communities

Permafrost thawing and the potential 'lab leak' of ancient microorganisms generate risks of biological invasions for today's ecological communities, including threats to human health via exposure to emergent pathogens. Whether and how such 'time-travelling' invaders could establish in modern communities is unclear, and existing data are too scarce to test hypotheses. To quantify the risks of time-travelling invasions, we isolated digital virus-like pathogens from the past records of coevolved artificial life communities and studied their simulated invasion into future states of the community. We then investigated how invasions affected diversity of the free-living bacteria-like organisms (i.e., hosts) in recipient communities compared to controls where no invasion occurred (and control invasions of contemporary pathogens). Invading pathogens could often survive and continue evolving, and in a few cases (3.1%) became exceptionally dominant in the invaded community. Even so, invaders often had negligible effects on the invaded community composition; however, in a few, highly unpredictable cases (1.1%), invaders precipitated either substantial losses (up to -32%) or gains (up to +12%) in the total richness of free-living species compared to controls. Given the sheer abundance of ancient microorganisms regularly released into modern communities, such a low probability of outbreak events still presents substantial risks. Our findings therefore suggest that unpredictable threats so far confined to science fiction and conjecture could in fact be powerful drivers of ecological change.

Coextinctions dominate future vertebrate losses from climate and land use change

Although theory identifies coextinctions as a main driver of biodiversity loss, their role at the planetary scale has yet to be estimated. We subjected a global model of interconnected terrestrial vertebrate food webs to future (2020-2100) climate and land-use changes. We predict a 17.6% (± 0.16% SE) average reduction of local vertebrate diversity globally by 2100, with coextinctions increasing the effect of primary extinctions by 184.2% (± 10.9% SE) on average under an intermediate emissions scenario. Communities will lose up to a half of ecological interactions, thus reducing trophic complexity, network connectance, and community resilience. The model reveals that the extreme toll of global change for vertebrate diversity might be of secondary importance compared to the damages to ecological network structure.

A patch-dynamic metacommunity perspective on the persistence of mutualistic and antagonistic bipartite networks

The structure of interactions between species within a community plays a key role in maintaining biodiversity. Previous studies have found that the effects of these structures might substantially differ depending on interaction type, for example, a highly connected and nested architecture stabilizes mutualistic communities, while the stability of antagonistic communities is enhanced in modular and weakly connected structures. Here we show that, when network dynamics are modelled using a patch-dynamic metacommunity framework, the qualitative differences between antagonistic and mutualistic systems disappear, with nestedness and modularity interacting to promote metacommunity persistence. However, the interactive effects are significantly weaker in antagonistic metacommunities. Our model also predicts an increase in connectance, nestedness and modularity over time in both types of interaction, except in antagonistic networks where nestedness declines. At steady state, we find a strong negative correlation between nestedness and modularity in both mutualistic and antagonistic metacommunities. These predictions are consistent with the structural trends found in a large dataset of real-world antagonistic and mutualistic communities.

Effects of the COVID-19 lockdowns on the management of coral restoration projects

Coral restoration initiatives are gaining significant momentum in a global effort to enhance the recovery of degraded coral reefs. However, the implementation and upkeep of coral nurseries are particularly demanding, so that unforeseen breaks in maintenance operations might jeopardize well-established projects. In the last 2 years, the COVID-19 pandemic has resulted in a temporary yet prolonged abandonment of several coral gardening infrastructures worldwide, including remote localities. Here we provide a first assessment of the potential impacts of monitoring and maintenance breakdown in a suite of coral restoration projects (based on floating rope nurseries) in Colombia, Seychelles, and Maldives. Our study comprises nine nurseries from six locations, hosting a total of 3,554 fragments belonging to three coral genera, that were left unsupervised for a period spanning from 29 to 61 weeks. Floating nursery structures experienced various levels of damage, and total fragment survival spanned from 40 to 95% among projects, with Pocillopora showing the highest survival rate in all locations present. Overall, our study shows that, under certain conditions, abandoned coral nurseries can remain functional for several months without suffering critical failure from biofouling and hydrodynamism. Still, even where gardening infrastructures were only marginally affected, the unavoidable interruptions in data collection have slowed down ongoing project progress, diminishing previous investments and reducing future funding opportunities. These results highlight the need to increase the resilience and self-sufficiency of coral restoration projects, so that the next global lockdown will not further shrink the increasing efforts to prevent coral reefs from disappearing.

Unveiling the complexity and ecological function of aquatic macrophyte-animal networks in coastal ecosystems

Network theory offers innovative tools to explore the complex ecological mechanisms regulating species associations and interactions. Although interest in ecological networks has grown steadily during the last two decades, the application of network approaches has been unequally distributed across different study systems: while some kinds of interactions (e.g. plant-pollinator and host-parasite) have been extensively investigated, others remain relatively unexplored. Among the latter, aquatic macrophyte-animal associations in coastal environments have been largely neglected, despite their major role in littoral ecosystems. The ubiquity of macrophyte systems, their accessibility and multi-faceted ecological, economical and societal importance make macrophyte-animal systems an ideal subject for ecological network science. In fact, macrophyte-animal networks offer an aquatic counterpart to terrestrial plant-animal networks. In this review, we show how the application of network analysis to aquatic macrophyte-animal associations has the potential to broaden our understanding of how coastal ecosystems function. Network analysis can also provide a key to understanding how such ecosystems will respond to on-going and future threats from anthropogenic disturbance and environmental change. For this, we: (i) identify key issues that have limited the application of network theory and modelling to aquatic animal-macrophyte associations; (ii) illustrate through examples based on empirical data how network analysis can offer new insights on the complexity and functioning of coastal ecosystems; and (iii) provide suggestions for how to design future studies and establish this new research line into network ecology.

Ecological dependencies make remote reef fish communities most vulnerable to coral loss

Ecosystems face both local hazards, such as over-exploitation, and global hazards, such as climate change. Since the impact of local hazards attenuates with distance from humans, local extinction risk should decrease with remoteness, making faraway areas safe havens for biodiversity. However, isolation and reduced anthropogenic disturbance may increase ecological specialization in remote communities, and hence their vulnerability to secondary effects of diversity loss propagating through networks of interacting species. We show this to be true for reef fish communities across the globe. An increase in fish-coral dependency with the distance of coral reefs from human settlements, paired with the far-reaching impacts of global hazards, increases the risk of fish species loss, counteracting the benefits of remoteness. Hotspots of fish risk from fish-coral dependency are distinct from those caused by direct human impacts, increasing the number of risk hotspots by ~30% globally. These findings might apply to other ecosystems on Earth and depict a world where no place, no matter how remote, is safe for biodiversity, calling for a reconsideration of global conservation priorities.

Integrative systematics illuminates the relationships in two sponge-associated hydrozoan families (Capitata: Sphaerocorynidae and Zancleopsidae)

An integrated approach using morphological and genetic data is needed to disentangle taxonomic uncertainties affecting the hydrozoan families Sphaerocorynidae and Zancleopsidae. Here we used this approach to accurately characterise species in these families, identify the previously unknown polyp stages of the genera Euphysilla and Zancleopsis, which were originally described exclusively based on the medusa stages, describe a new sphaerocorynid genus and species, and assess the phylogenetic position of the two families within the Capitata. The monotypic genus Astrocoryne was found to be a synonym of Zancleopsis. Astrocoryne cabela was therefore transferred to the genus Zancleopsis as Zancleopsis cabela comb. nov. The new polyp-based genus and species Kudacoryne diaphana gen. nov. sp. nov. was erected within the Sphaerocorynidae. Both taxa are primarily based on genetic data, but the introduction of this new genus was made necessary by the fact that it clustered with the genera Heterocoryne and Euphysilla, despite showing Sphaerocoryne-like polyps. Interestingly, the species analysed in this work showed contrasting biogeographical patterns. Based on our data and literature records, some species appear to have a wide circumtropical range, whereas others are limited to few localities. Overall, these results lay the ground for future investigations aimed at resolving the taxonomy and systematics of these two enigmatic families.

Congruent trophic pathways underpin global coral reef food webs

Ecological interactions uphold ecosystem structure and functioning. However, as species richness increases, the number of possible interactions rises exponentially. More than 6,000 species of coral reef fishes exist across the world's tropical oceans, resulting in an almost innumerable array of possible trophic interactions. Distilling general patterns in these interactions across different bioregions stands to improve our understanding of the processes that govern coral reef functioning. Here, we show that across bioregions, tropical coral reef food webs exhibit a remarkable congruence in their trophic interactions. Specifically, by compiling and investigating the structure of six coral reef food webs across distinct bioregions, we show that when accounting for consumer size and resource availability, these food webs share more trophic interactions than expected by chance. In addition, coral reef food webs are dominated by dietary specialists, which makes trophic pathways vulnerable to biodiversity loss. Prey partitioning among these specialists is geographically consistent, and this pattern intensifies when weak interactions are disregarded. Our results suggest that energy flows through coral reef communities along broadly comparable trophic pathways. Yet, these critical pathways are maintained by species with narrow, specialized diets, which threatens the existence of coral reef functioning in the face of biodiversity loss.

Global tropical reef fish richness could decline by around half if corals are lost

Reef fishes are a treasured part of marine biodiversity, and also provide needed protein for many millions of people. Although most reef fishes might survive projected increases in ocean temperatures, corals are less tolerant. A few fish species strictly depend on corals for food and shelter, suggesting that coral extinctions could lead to some secondary fish extinctions. However, secondary extinctions could extend far beyond those few coral-dependent species. Furthermore, it is yet unknown how such fish declines might vary around the world. Current coral mass mortalities led us to ask how fish communities would respond to coral loss within and across oceans. We mapped 6964 coral-reef-fish species and 119 coral genera, and then regressed reef-fish species richness against coral generic richness at the 1° scale (after controlling for biogeographic factors that drive species diversification). Consistent with small-scale studies, statistical extrapolations suggested that local fish richness across the globe would be around half its current value in a hypothetical world without coral, leading to more areas with low or intermediate fish species richness and fewer fish diversity hotspots.

Relative demographic susceptibility does not explain the extinction chronology of Sahul's megafauna

The causes of Sahul’s megafauna extinctions remain uncertain, although several interacting factors were likely responsible. To examine the relative support for hypotheses regarding plausible ecological mechanisms underlying these extinctions, we constructed the first stochastic, age-structured models for 13 extinct megafauna species from five functional/taxonomic groups, as well as 8 extant species within these groups for comparison. Perturbing specific demographic rates individually, we tested which species were more demographically susceptible to extinction, and then compared these relative sensitivities to the fossil-derived extinction chronology. Our models show that the macropodiformes were the least demographically susceptible to extinction, followed by carnivores, monotremes, vombatiform herbivores, and large birds. Five of the eight extant species were as or more susceptible than the extinct species. There was no clear relationship between extinction susceptibility and the extinction chronology for any perturbation scenario, while body mass and generation length explained much of the variation in relative risk. Our results reveal that the actual mechanisms leading to the observed extinction chronology were unlikely related to variation in demographic susceptibility per se, but were possibly driven instead by finer-scale variation in climate change and/or human prey choice and relative hunting success.

Delineating reef fish trophic guilds with global gut content data synthesis and phylogeny

Understanding species' roles in food webs requires an accurate assessment of their trophic niche. However, it is challenging to delineate potential trophic interactions across an ecosystem, and a paucity of empirical information often leads to inconsistent definitions of trophic guilds based on expert opinion, especially when applied to hyperdiverse ecosystems. Using coral reef fishes as a model group, we show that experts disagree on the assignment of broad trophic guilds for more than 20% of species, which hampers comparability across studies. Here, we propose a quantitative, unbiased, and reproducible approach to define trophic guilds and apply recent advances in machine learning to predict probabilities of pairwise trophic interactions with high accuracy. We synthesize data from community-wide gut content analyses of tropical coral reef fishes worldwide, resulting in diet information from 13,961 individuals belonging to 615 reef fish. We then use network analysis to identify 8 trophic guilds and Bayesian phylogenetic modeling to show that trophic guilds can be predicted based on phylogeny and maximum body size. Finally, we use machine learning to test whether pairwise trophic interactions can be predicted with accuracy. Our models achieved a misclassification error of less than 5%, indicating that our approach results in a quantitative and reproducible trophic categorization scheme, as well as high-resolution probabilities of trophic interactions. By applying our framework to the most diverse vertebrate consumer group, we show that it can be applied to other organismal groups to advance reproducibility in trait-based ecology. Our work thus provides a viable approach to account for the complexity of predator-prey interactions in highly diverse ecosystems.

Small world in the real world: Long distance dispersal governs epidemic dynamics in agricultural landscapes

Outbreaks of a plant disease in a landscape can be meaningfully modelled using networks with nodes representing individual crop-fields, and edges representing potential infection pathways between them. Their spatial structure, which resembles that of a regular lattice, makes such networks fairly robust against epidemics. Yet, it is well-known how the addition of a few shortcuts can turn robust regular lattices into vulnerable 'small world' networks. Although the relevance of this phenomenon has been shown theoretically for networks with nodes corresponding to individual host plants, its real-world implications at a larger scale (i.e. in networks with nodes representing crop fields or other plantations) remain elusive. Focusing on realistic spatial networks connecting olive orchards in Andalusia (Southern Spain), the world's leading olive producer, we show how even very small probabilities of long distance dispersal of infectious vectors result in a small-world effect that dramatically exacerbates a hypothetical outbreak of a disease targeting olive trees (loosely modelled on known epidemiological information on the bacterium Xylella fastidiosa, an important emerging threat for European agriculture). More specifically, we found that the probability of long distance vector dispersal has a disproportionately larger effect on epidemic dynamics compared to pathogen's intrinsic infectivity, increasing total infected area by up to one order of magnitude (in the absence of quarantine). Furthermore, even a very small probability of long distance dispersal increased the effort needed to halt a hypothetical outbreak through quarantine by about 50% in respect to scenarios modelling local/short distance pathogen's dispersal only. This highlights how identifying (and disrupting) long distance dispersal processes may be more efficacious to contain a plant disease epidemic than surveillance and intervention concentrated on local scale transmission processes.

Ecological drift and competitive interactions predict unique patterns in temporal fluctuations of population size

Recent studies have highlighted the importance of higher-order competitive interactions in stabilizing population dynamics in multi-species communities. But how does the structure of competitive hierarchies affect population dynamics and extinction processes? We tackled this important question by using spatially explicit simulations of ecological drift (10 species in a homogeneous landscape of 64 patches) in which birth rates were influenced by interspecific competition. Specifically, we examined how transitive (linear pecking orders) and intransitive (pecking orders with loops) competitive hierarchies affected extinction rates and population dynamics in simulated communities through time. In comparison to a pure neutral model, an ecological drift model including transitive competition increased extinction rates, caused synchronous density-dependent population fluctuations, and generated a white-noise distribution of population sizes. In contrast, the drift model with intransitive competitive interactions decreased extinctions rates, caused asynchronous (compensatory) density-dependent population fluctuations, and generated a brown noise distribution of population sizes. We also explored the effect on community stability of more complex patterns of competitive interactions in which pairwise competitive relationships were assigned probabilistically. These probabilistic competition models also generated density-dependent trajectories and a brown noise distribution of population sizes. However, extinction rates and the degree of population synchrony were comparable to those observed in purely neutral communities. Collectively, our results confirm that intransitive competition has a strong and stabilizing effect on local populations in species-poor communities. This effect wanes with increasing species richness. Empirical assemblages characterized by brown spectral noise, density-dependent regulation, and asynchronous (compensatory) population fluctuations may indicate a signature of intransitive competitive interactions.

Co-extinctions annihilate planetary life during extreme environmental change

Climate change and human activity are dooming species at an unprecedented rate via a plethora of direct and indirect, often synergic, mechanisms. Among these, primary extinctions driven by environmental change could be just the tip of an enormous extinction iceberg. As our understanding of the importance of ecological interactions in shaping ecosystem identity advances, it is becoming clearer how the disappearance of consumers following the depletion of their resources — a process known as ‘co-extinction’ — is more likely the major driver of biodiversity loss. Although the general relevance of co-extinctions is supported by a sound and robust theoretical background, the challenges in obtaining empirical information about ongoing (and past) co-extinction events complicate the assessment of their relative contributions to the rapid decline of species diversity even in well-known systems, let alone at the global scale. By subjecting a large set of virtual Earths to different trajectories of extreme environmental change (global heating and cooling), and by tracking species loss up to the complete annihilation of all life either accounting or not for co-extinction processes, we show how ecological dependencies amplify the direct effects of environmental change on the collapse of planetary diversity by up to ten times.

Small room for compromise between oil palm cultivation and primate conservation in Africa

Despite growing awareness about its detrimental effects on tropical biodiversity, land conversion to oil palm continues to increase rapidly as a consequence of global demand, profitability, and the income opportunity it offers to producing countries. Although most industrial oil palm plantations are located in Southeast Asia, it is argued that much of their future expansion will occur in Africa. We assessed how this could affect the continent's primates by combining information on oil palm suitability and current land use with primate distribution, diversity, and vulnerability. We also quantified the potential impact of large-scale oil palm cultivation on primates in terms of range loss under different expansion scenarios taking into account future demand, oil palm suitability, human accessibility, carbon stock, and primate vulnerability. We found a high overlap between areas of high oil palm suitability and areas of high conservation priority for primates. Overall, we found only a few small areas where oil palm could be cultivated in Africa with a low impact on primates (3.3 Mha, including all areas suitable for oil palm). These results warn that, consistent with the dramatic effects of palm oil cultivation on biodiversity in Southeast Asia, reconciling a large-scale development of oil palm in Africa with primate conservation will be a great challenge.

A unifying framework for fast randomization of ecological networks with fixed (node) degrees

The Curveball algorithm is an efficient and unbiased procedure for randomizing bipartite networks (or their matrix counterpart) while preserving node degrees. Here we introduce two extensions of the procedure, making it capable to randomize also unimode directed and undirected networks. We provide formal mathematical proofs that the two extensions, as the original Curveball, are fast and unbiased (i.e. they sample uniformly from the universe of possible network configurations).

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We extend the Curveball algorithm to unimode directed and undirected networks.

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As the original Curveball, extensions are fast and unbiased.

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We provide Python and R code implementing the new procedures.

Corals hosting symbiotic hydrozoans are less susceptible to predation and disease

In spite of growing evidence that climate change may dramatically affect networks of interacting species, whether-and to what extent-ecological interactions can mediate species' responses to disturbances is an open question. Here we show how a largely overseen association such as that between hydrozoans and scleractinian corals could be possibly associated with a reduction in coral susceptibility to ever-increasing predator and disease outbreaks. We examined 2455 scleractinian colonies (from both Maldivian and the Saudi Arabian coral reefs) searching for non-random patterns in the occurrence of hydrozoans on corals showing signs of different health conditions (i.e. bleaching, algal overgrowth, corallivory and different coral diseases). We show that, after accounting for geographical, ecological and co-evolutionary factors, signs of disease and corallivory are significantly lower in coral colonies hosting hydrozoans than in hydrozoan-free ones. This finding has important implications for our understanding of the ecology of coral reefs, and for their conservation in the current scenario of global change, because it suggests that symbiotic hydrozoans may play an active role in protecting their scleractinian hosts from stresses induced by warming water temperatures.

Monitoring and assessing a 2-year outbreak of the corallivorous seastar Acanthaster planci in Ari Atoll, Republic of Maldives

Outbreaks of the corallivorous crown-of-thorns seastars have received increasing attention due to their negative impacts on coral reefs in the Indo-Pacific Ocean. However, outbreaks in remote and dislocated islands are still poorly understood. This study aims to begin filling informational gaps regarding outbreaks of Acanthaster planci in the remote islands of the central Ari Atoll, Republic of Maldives. The population of A. planci was monitored during three periods over 2 years (2015-2016) to evaluate variations in abundance and to characterise size structure and feeding behaviour. The outbreak appeared to be severe and active throughout the entire study period. The size structure analysis revealed a multimodal distribution dominated by individuals between 20 and 30 cm, suggesting that the outbreak may have resulted from a few nearby mass spawning events. Additionally, the most abundant live coral was Porites, which was also the most consumed genus; however, the electivity index showed a preference for corals of the genera Favites and Pavona. Finally, we also highlighted the need for more geographically extended surveys to better understand local patterns regarding outbreaks of A. planci in the Republic of Maldives.

Rapid decay in the relative efficiency of quarantine to halt epidemics in networks

Several recent studies have tackled the issue of optimal network immunization by providing efficient criteria to identify key nodes to be removed in order to break apart a network, thus preventing the occurrence of extensive epidemic outbreaks. Yet, although the efficiency of those criteria has been demonstrated also in empirical networks, preventive immunization is rarely applied to real-world scenarios, where the usual approach is the a posteriori attempt to contain epidemic outbreaks using quarantine measures. Here we compare the efficiency of prevention with that of quarantine in terms of the tradeoff between the number of removed and saved nodes on both synthetic and empirical topologies. We show how, consistent with common sense, but contrary to common practice, in many cases preventing is better than curing: depending on network structure, rescuing an infected network by quarantine could become inefficient soon after the first infection.

Why do nematomorphs leave their hosts?

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Nematomorphs induce their arthropod host to jump into water.

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The drowning host is often eaten by aquatic predators.

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This creates an opportunity for nematomorphs to increase life-cycle complexity.

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I speculate on why nematomorphs have always dropped this opportunity.

Forbidden versus permitted interactions: Disentangling processes from patterns in ecological network analysis

Several studies have identified the tendency for species to share interacting partners as a key property to the functioning and stability of ecological networks. However, assessing this pattern has proved challenging in several regards, such as finding proper metrics to assess node overlap (sharing), and using robust null modeling to disentangle significance from randomness. Here, we bring attention to an additional, largely neglected challenge in assessing species’ tendency to share interacting partners. In particular, we discuss and illustrate with two different case studies how identifying the set of “permitted” interactions for a given species (i.e. interactions that are not impeded, e.g. by lack of functional trait compatibility) is paramount to understand the ecological and co‐evolutionary processes at the basis of node overlap and segregation patterns.

Network analysis reveals why Xylella fastidiosa will persist in Europe

The insect vector borne bacterium Xylella fastidiosa was first detected in olive trees in Southern Italy in 2013, and identified as the main culprit behind the 'olive quick decline syndrome'. Since then, the disease has spread rapidly through Italy's main olive oil producing region. The epidemiology of the outbreak is largely unstudied, with the list of X. fastidiosa hosts and vectors in Europe likely incomplete, and the role humans play in dispersal unknown. These knowledge gaps have led to management strategies based on general assumptions that require, among others, local vector control and, in certain areas, the destruction of infected plants and healthy ones around them in an attempt to eradicate or halt the spreading pest. Here we show that, regardless of epidemiological uncertainties, the mere distribution of olive orchards in Southern Italy makes the chances of eradicating X. fastidiosa from the region extremely slim. Our results imply that Southern Italy is becoming a reservoir for X. fastidiosa. As a consequence, management strategies should keep the prevalence of X. fastidiosa in the region as low as possible, primarily through vector control, lest the pathogen, that has also been detected in southern France and the island of Mallorca (Spain), continues spreading through Italy and Europe.

Far from Naturalness: How Much Does Spatial Ecological Structure of European Tree Assemblages Depart from Potential Natural Vegetation?

Contemporaneous plant communities may retain a mark of past disturbances in their ecological patterns. However, unraveling the history of disturbance on natural systems at a large scale is often unfeasible, due to the complexity of the factors involved and lack of historical data. Here we aim at demonstrating how comparing observed spatial structure of tree assemblages with that expected in a hypothetical, undisturbed scenario can shed light on how natural European forests are. Borrowing an analytical approach developed in the field of network analysis, we assessed how much the observed ecological patterns of nestedness (i.e. positive co-occurrence), segregation (i.e. negative co-occurrence), and modularity in tree assemblages deviate from randomness, and from those projected by Potential Natural Vegetation (PNV) geobotanical expert assessments. We found clear evidence that European forests are far from a natural condition, showing only moderate signals (especially at higher latitudes) of the ecological spatial structure typical of undisturbed vegetation (i.e. nestedness). Our results highlight how taking into account spatial structure along with diversity can be a fundamental tool to address this problem and assess the degree of naturalness in species assemblages.

Environmental change makes robust ecological networks fragile

Complex ecological networks appear robust to primary extinctions, possibly due to consumers' tendency to specialize on dependable (available and persistent) resources. However, modifications to the conditions under which the network has evolved might alter resource dependability. Here, we ask whether adaptation to historical conditions can increase community robustness, and whether such robustness can protect communities from collapse when conditions change. Using artificial life simulations, we first evolved digital consumer-resource networks that we subsequently subjected to rapid environmental change. We then investigated how empirical host–parasite networks would respond to historical, random and expected extinction sequences. In both the cases, networks were far more robust to historical conditions than new ones, suggesting that new environmental challenges, as expected under global change, might collapse otherwise robust natural ecosystems.

Despite their complexity, ecological networks appear robust to species loss. Here, Strona and Lafferty use artificial life simulations and real-world data to show that such robustness applies to stable conditions, but can collapse when the environment changes.

Hsp60 expression profiles in the reef-building coral Seriatopora caliendrum subjected to heat and cold shock regimes

Climate changes have increased the intensity/frequency of extreme thermal events, which represent serious threats to the health of reef-building corals. Since the vulnerability of corals exposed to thermal stresses are related to their ability to regulate Heat shock proteins (Hsps), we have analyzed together the time related expression profiles of the mitochondrial Hsp60 and the associated changes in tissue pigmentation in Seriatopora caliendrum subjected to 48 h of heat and cold treatments characterized by moderate (±2 °C) and severe (±6 °C) shocks. For the first time, an Hsp60 response was observed in a scleractinian coral exposed to cold stresses. Furthermore, the Hsp60 modulations and the changes in the tissue coloration were found to be specific for each treatment. A strong down-regulation at the end of the treatments was observed following both the severe shocks, but only the severe heat stress led to bleaching in concert with the lowest levels of Hsp60, suggesting that a severe heat shock can be more deleterious than an exposure to a severe cold temperature. On the contrary, a moderate cold stress seems to be more harmful than a moderate temperature increase, which could allow coral acclimation. Our results can provide a potential framework for understanding the physiological tolerance of corals under possible future climate changes.

Are generalist parasites being lost from their hosts?

Co-extinctions should be regarded as fundamental co-evolutionary events promoting species turnover, prior than a consequence of human induced biodiversity loss. Focusing on current scenarios is key to biodiversity conservation, but predicting future trends could be harder and less fruitful than trying to get a better grasp on the past.

Past, present and future of host-parasite co-extinctions

Human induced ecosystem alterations and climate change are expected to drive several species to extinction. In this context, the attention of public opinion, and hence conservationists' efforts, are often targeted towards species having emotional, recreational and/or economical value. This tendency may result in a high number of extinctions happening unnoticed. Among these, many could involve parasites. Several studies have highlighted various reasons why we should care about this, that go far beyond the fact that parasites are amazingly diverse. A growing corpus of evidence suggests that parasites contribute much to ecosystems both in terms of biomass and services, and the seemingly paradoxical idea that a healthy ecosystem is one rich in parasites is becoming key to the whole concept of parasite conservation. Although various articles have covered different aspects of host-parasite co-extinctions, I feel that some important conceptual issues still need to be formally addressed. In this review, I will attempt at clarifying some of them, with the aim of providing researchers with a unifying conceptual framework that could help them designing future studies. In doing this, I will try to draw a more clear distinction between the (co-)evolutionary and the ecological dimensions of co-extinction studies, since the ongoing processes that are putting parasites at risk now operate at a scale that is extremely different from the one that has shaped host-parasite networks throughout million years of co-evolution. Moreover, I will emphasize how the complexity of direct and indirect effects of parasites on ecosystems makes it much challenging to identify the mechanisms possibly leading to co-extinction events, and to predict how such events will affect ecosystems in the long run.

Maldives: an archipelago that burns. A first survey of PCDD/Fs and DL-PCBs from human activities

Due to its geographical peculiarities, the Republic of Maldives represents a case study of great interest for the investigation of persistent organic pollutants, from both a socio-economic and an ecological perspective. Thus, we conducted a first survey to assess the current status of polychlorinated dibenzo-p-dioxin (PCDD), polychlorinated dibenzofuran (PCDF) and dioxin-like polychlorinated biphenyl (DL-PCB) concentrations in Maldivian soils. The range for PCDD/F and DL-PCB soil concentrations was 0.01-49.3 pg WHO2005-TEQ g(-1) and 0.01-3.69 pg WHO2005-TEQ g(-1) dw respectively. PCDD/F concentrations exceeding several international soil guidelines were found in samples from locations in the proximity of local waste combustion sources. DL-PCB concentrations were lower than PCDD/Fs and comparable to those in previous reports from background areas and in areas with developing industrial and agricultural activities. PCDD/F and DL-PCB levels (expressed as WHO2005-TEQ) in soils were strongly correlated (r=0.89), which suggests that, in most of the sites, they are originated from the same emission sources. Results indicate that PCDD/F soil concentrations (expressed as WHO2005-TEQ) tend to decrease with the distance from the local pollution sources. Principal component analysis (PCA) showed that PCDD/Fs in the most polluted locations are mainly generated by waste combustion. These findings highlight the need for immediate changes in waste management policies in the Archipelago, in order to reduce the release of Persistent Organic Pollutants (POPs) in the fragile local environment.

The susceptibility of corals to thermal stress by analyzing Hsp60 expression

Due to the increasing frequency and severity of the coral bleaching events in the context of global warming, there is an urgent need to improve our understanding of the susceptibility of corals to thermal stresses, particularly at the sub-cellular level. In this context, we examined the modulation of the polyp mitochondrial Hsp60 in three scleractinian coral species (Seriatopora hystrix, Montipora monasteriata and Acropora echinata) under simulated heat shock bleaching at 34 °C during a time course of 36 h. All three species displayed a similar initial increase of Hsp60 level which accompanies the increasing paleness of coral tissue. Afterwards, each of them showed a specific pattern of Hsp60 down-regulation which can be indicative of a different threshold of resistance, although it proceeded in synchrony with the complete bleaching of tissues. The finely branched S. hystrix was the species most susceptible to heat stress while the plating M. monasteriata was the most tolerant one, as its Hsp60 down-regulation was less rapid than the branching corals. On the whole, the Hsp60 modulation appears useful for providing information about the susceptibility of the different coral taxa to environmental disturbances.

Fish parasites resolve the paradox of missing coextinctions

Models of coextinction identify parasites as one of the most menaced ecological groups. The number of host species a parasite uses should strongly affect its risk of coextinction. The naïve expectation is that the lower the number, the higher is the parasite's risk of being left with no hosts. Here we analyse the coextinction risk of 12,141 fish parasite species and find that highly specific parasites are not the most endangered, because they tend to use hosts with low vulnerability to extinction. This unexpected result may explain why the number of documented host-parasite coextinctions is much lower than predicted by theoretical studies.

Exploring the effect of salinity changes on the levels of Hsp60 in the tropical coral Seriatopora caliendrum

Osmotic stress represents a limiting physical parameter for marine organisms and especially for sessile scleractinian corals which are known to be basically stenohaline and osmoconformers. The salinity changes may cause important cellular damage since corals lack any developed physiological regulatory system. One mechanism of reaction to deleterious conditions is the rapid increase of the induction of heat shock proteins. This study highlights the modulation of the expression of a mitochondrial heat shock protein, such as the chaperonin Hsp60, in the animal tissues of the scleractinian coral Seriatopora caliendrum under three salinity scenarios (hypersalinity of 45 ppt, hyposalinity of 25 ppt and extreme hyposalinity of 15 ppt). The study was performed during the time course of a 2-day period and accompanied also by the assessment of the coral health condition. For each salinity stress S. caliendrum responds differently at the morphological and cellular levels, since the Hsp60 exhibited specific patterns of expression and the coral showed different tissue appearance. Furthermore, the response reflects the severity and exposure length of the disturbance. However, the results indicate that S. caliendrum seems able to tolerates high salinity better than low salinity. In particular, in extreme hyposalinity conditions, a considerable gradual down-regulation of Hsp60 was detected accompanied by necrosis and degradation of the coral tissues. The study suggests that Hsp60 may be involved in the mechanisms of cellular response to stress caused by exposure to adverse salinity.

Prevalence, host range, and spatial distribution of black band disease in the Maldivian Archipelago

Little research has been conducted on diseases affecting reef-building corals in the central Indian Ocean. During 2010 and 2011, we performed a quantitative assessment of black band disease (BBD) in the central Republic of Maldives. Distribution, host range, and prevalence of BBD were investigated at 6 coral islands (Magoodhoo, Adanga, Ihuru, Vabbinfaru, Thudufushi, and Athuruga) belonging to 3 different atolls. BBD was found to be widespread among the atolls. All the islands showed a prevalence lower than 0.5%. Magoodhoo Island showed the highest mean disease prevalence. In the whole surveyed area, shallow sites showed higher overall mean BBD prevalence than deep ones. BBD was recorded from 6 scleractinian families (Acroporidae, Faviidae, Poritidae, Siderastreidae, Agariciidae, Fungiidae) and 13 scleractinian genera. Two of them, Gardineroseris and Sandalolitha, constitute new records for the disease. The siderastreid Psammocora (BBD prevalence: 5.33 ± 1.41%, mean ± SE) was the most affected genus, followed by Goniopora (2.7 ± 1.3%). BBD prevalence was positively correlated to the respective host density in both genera. Favites and Acropora were the less affected genera (both <0.1%). Although we observed an extremely low overall disease prevalence in the surveyed area (<1%), the large number of different scleractinian genera affected and the widespread distribution of BBD indicate a need for further investigation.