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Diengdoh VL, Brook BW, Hunt M, Ondei S. Association between land use, land cover, plant genera, and pollinator abundance in mixed-use landscapes. PLoS One 2023; 18:e0294749. [PMID: 37992121 PMCID: PMC10664889 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0294749] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/25/2021] [Accepted: 11/08/2023] [Indexed: 11/24/2023] Open
Abstract
Pollinators are threatened by land-use and land-cover changes, with the magnitude of the threat depending on the pollinating taxa, land-use type and intensity, the amount of natural habitat remaining, and the ecosystem considered. This study aims to determine the effect of land use (protected areas, plantations, pastures), land cover (percentage of forest and open areas within buffers of different sizes), and plant genera on the relative abundance of nectivorous birds (honeyeaters), bees (native and introduced), and beetles in the mixed-use landscape of the Tasman Peninsula (Tasmania, Australia) using mixed-effect models. We found the predictor selected (through model selection based on R2) and the effect of the predictors varied depending on the pollinating taxa. The land-use predictors were selected for only the honeyeater abundance model with protected areas and plantations having substantive positive effects. Land-cover predictors were selected for the honeyeater and native bee abundance models with open land cover within 1500 m and 250 m buffers having substantive negative and positive effects on honeyeaters and native bees respectively. Bees and beetles were observed on 24 plant genera of which only native plants (and not invasive/naturalised) were positively associated with pollinating insects. Pultenaea and Leucopogon were positively associated with native bees while Leucopogon, Lissanthe, Pimelea, and Pomaderris were positively associated with introduced bees. Leptospermum was the only plant genus positively associated with beetles. Our results highlight that one size does not fit all-that is pollinator responses to different landscape characteristics vary, emphasising the importance of considering multiple habitat factors to manage and support different pollinator taxa.
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Affiliation(s)
| | - Barry W. Brook
- School of Natural Sciences, University of Tasmania, Hobart, Australia
- ARC Centre of Excellence for Australian Biodiversity and Heritage, Wollongong, New South Wales, Australia
| | - Mark Hunt
- School of Natural Sciences, University of Tasmania, Hobart, Australia
- ARC Industrial Transformation Training Centre for Forest Value, Hobart, Australia
| | - Stefania Ondei
- School of Natural Sciences, University of Tasmania, Hobart, Australia
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2
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Jarić I, Buettel JC, Brook BW. A fast re-sampling method for using reliability ratings of sightings with extinction-date estimators: Reply. Ecology 2023; 104:e4124. [PMID: 37303199 DOI: 10.1002/ecy.4124] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/20/2022] [Revised: 05/18/2023] [Accepted: 06/09/2023] [Indexed: 06/13/2023]
Affiliation(s)
- Ivan Jarić
- Université Paris-Saclay, CNRS, AgroParisTech, Ecologie Systématique Evolution, Orsay, France
- Biology Centre of the Czech Academy of Sciences, Institute of Hydrobiology, České Budějovice, Czech Republic
- Department of Ecosystem Biology, Faculty of Science, University of South Bohemia, České Budějovice, Czech Republic
| | - Jessie C Buettel
- School of Natural Sciences, University of Tasmania, Hobart, Tasmania, Australia
- ARC Centre of Excellence for Australian Biodiversity and Heritage, University of Tasmania, Hobart, Tasmania, Australia
| | - Barry W Brook
- School of Natural Sciences, University of Tasmania, Hobart, Tasmania, Australia
- ARC Centre of Excellence for Australian Biodiversity and Heritage, University of Tasmania, Hobart, Tasmania, Australia
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3
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Ringwaldt EM, Brook BW, Buettel JC, Cunningham CX, Fuller C, Gardiner R, Hamer R, Jones M, Martin AM, Carver S. Host, environment, and anthropogenic factors drive landscape dynamics of an environmentally transmitted pathogen: Sarcoptic mange in the bare-nosed wombat. J Anim Ecol 2023; 92:1786-1801. [PMID: 37221666 DOI: 10.1111/1365-2656.13960] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/21/2022] [Accepted: 05/09/2023] [Indexed: 05/25/2023]
Abstract
Understanding the spatial dynamics and drivers of wildlife pathogens is constrained by sampling logistics, with implications for advancing the field of landscape epidemiology and targeted allocation of management resources. However, visually apparent wildlife diseases, when combined with remote-surveillance and distribution modelling technologies, present an opportunity to overcome this landscape-scale problem. Here, we investigated dynamics and drivers of landscape-scale wildlife disease, using clinical signs of sarcoptic mange (caused by Sarcoptes scabiei) in its bare-nosed wombat (BNW; Vombatus ursinus) host. We used 53,089 camera-trap observations from over 3261 locations across the 68,401 km2 area of Tasmania, Australia, combined with landscape data and ensemble species distribution modelling (SDM). We investigated: (1) landscape variables predicted to drive habitat suitability of the host; (2) host and landscape variables associated with clinical signs of disease in the host; and (3) predicted locations and environmental conditions at greatest risk of disease occurrence, including some Bass Strait islands where BNW translocations are proposed. We showed that the Tasmanian landscape, and ecosystems therein, are nearly ubiquitously suited to BNWs. Only high mean annual precipitation reduced habitat suitability for the host. In contrast, clinical signs of sarcoptic mange disease in BNWs were widespread, but heterogeneously distributed across the landscape. Mange (which is environmentally transmitted in BNWs) was most likely to be observed in areas of increased host habitat suitability, lower annual precipitation, near sources of freshwater and where topographic roughness was minimal (e.g. human modified landscapes, such as farmland and intensive land-use areas, shrub and grass lands). Thus, a confluence of host, environmental and anthropogenic variables appear to influence the risk of environmental transmission of S. scabiei. We identified that the Bass Strait Islands are highly suitable for BNWs and predicted a mix of high and low suitability for the pathogen. This study is the largest spatial assessment of sarcoptic mange in any host species, and advances understanding of the landscape epidemiology of environmentally transmitted S. scabiei. This research illustrates how host-pathogen co-suitability can be useful for allocating management resources in the landscape.
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Affiliation(s)
- E M Ringwaldt
- School of Natural Sciences, Biological Science, University of Tasmania, Hobart, Tasmania, Australia
| | - B W Brook
- School of Natural Sciences, Biological Science, University of Tasmania, Hobart, Tasmania, Australia
| | - J C Buettel
- School of Natural Sciences, Biological Science, University of Tasmania, Hobart, Tasmania, Australia
| | - C X Cunningham
- School of Natural Sciences, Biological Science, University of Tasmania, Hobart, Tasmania, Australia
- School of Environmental and Forest Sciences, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington, USA
| | - C Fuller
- School of Natural Sciences, Biological Science, University of Tasmania, Hobart, Tasmania, Australia
| | - R Gardiner
- School of Science, Engineering and Technology, University of Sunshine Coast, Sippy Downs, Queensland, Australia
| | - R Hamer
- School of Natural Sciences, Biological Science, University of Tasmania, Hobart, Tasmania, Australia
| | - M Jones
- School of Natural Sciences, Biological Science, University of Tasmania, Hobart, Tasmania, Australia
| | - A M Martin
- Caesar Kleberg Wildlife Research Institute, Texas A&M University-Kingsville, Kingsville, Texas, USA
| | - S Carver
- School of Natural Sciences, Biological Science, University of Tasmania, Hobart, Tasmania, Australia
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4
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Brook BW, Sleightholme SR, Campbell CR, Jarić I, Buettel JC. Resolving when (and where) the Thylacine went extinct. Sci Total Environ 2023; 877:162878. [PMID: 36934937 DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2023.162878] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/18/2022] [Revised: 02/23/2023] [Accepted: 03/11/2023] [Indexed: 05/06/2023]
Abstract
Like the Dodo and Passenger Pigeon before it, the predatory marsupial Thylacine (Thylacinus cynocephalus), or 'Tasmanian tiger', has become an iconic symbol of anthropogenic extinction. The last captive animal died in 1936, but even today reports of the Thylacine's possible ongoing survival in remote regions of Tasmania are newsworthy and capture the public's imagination. Extirpated from mainland Australia in the mid-Holocene, the island of Tasmania became the species' final stronghold. Following European settlement in the 1800s, the Thylacine was relentlessly persecuted and pushed to the margins of its range, although many sightings were reported thereafter-even well beyond the 1930s. To gain a new depth of insight into the extinction of the Thylacine, we assembled an exhaustive database of 1237 observational records from Tasmania (from 1910 onwards), quantified their uncertainty, and charted the patterns these revealed. We also developed a new method to visualize the species' 20th-century spatio-temporal dynamics, to map potential post-bounty refugia and pinpoint the most-likely location of the final persisting subpopulation. A direct reading of the high-quality records (confirmed kills and captures, in combination with sightings by past Thylacine hunters and trappers, wildlife professionals and experienced bushmen) implies a most-likely extinction date within four decades following the last capture (i.e., 1940s to 1970s). However, uncertainty modelling of the entire sighting record, where each observation is assigned a probability and the whole dataset is then subject to a sensitivity analysis, suggests that extinction might have been as recent as the late 1980s to early 2000s, with a small chance of persistence in the remote south-western wilderness areas. Beyond the intrinsically fascinating problem of reconstructing the final fate of the Thylacine, the new spatio-temporal mapping of extirpation developed herein would also be useful for conservation prioritization and search efforts for other rare taxa of uncertain status.
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Affiliation(s)
- Barry W Brook
- School of Natural Sciences, University of Tasmania, Hobart, Tasmania 7001, Australia; ARC Centre of Excellence for Australian Biodiversity and Heritage (CABAH), Australia.
| | | | | | - Ivan Jarić
- Biology Centre of the Czech Academy of Sciences, Institute of Hydrobiology, České Budějovice, Czech Republic; University of South Bohemia, Faculty of Science, Department of Ecosystem Biology, České Budějovice, Czech Republic; Université Paris-Saclay, CNRS, AgroParisTech, Ecologie Systématique Evolution, Gif-sur-Yvette, France
| | - Jessie C Buettel
- School of Natural Sciences, University of Tasmania, Hobart, Tasmania 7001, Australia; ARC Centre of Excellence for Australian Biodiversity and Heritage (CABAH), Australia
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5
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Wanger TC, Brook BW, Evans T, Tscharntke T. Pesticides reduce tropical amphibian and reptile diversity in agricultural landscapes in Indonesia. PeerJ 2023; 11:e15046. [PMID: 36967985 PMCID: PMC10035417 DOI: 10.7717/peerj.15046] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/06/2020] [Accepted: 02/21/2023] [Indexed: 03/29/2023] Open
Abstract
Pesticide use on tropical crops has increased substantially in recent decades, posing a threat to biodiversity and ecosystem services. Amphibians and reptiles are common in tropical agricultural landscapes, but few field studies measure pesticide impacts on these taxa. Here we combine 1-year of correlative data with an experimental field approach from Indonesia. We show that while pesticide application cannot predict amphibian or reptile diversity patterns in cocoa plantations, our experimental exposure to herbicides and insecticides in vegetable gardens eliminated amphibians, whereas reptiles were less impacted by insecticide and not affected by herbicide exposure. The pesticide-driven loss of a common amphibian species known to be a pest-control agent (mainly invertebrate predation) suggests a strong indirect negative effect of pesticides on this service. We recommend landscape-based Integrated Pest Management and additional ecotoxicological studies on amphibians and reptiles to underpin a regulatory framework and to assure recognition and protection of their ecosystem services.
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Affiliation(s)
- Thomas Cherico Wanger
- Agroecology, University of Göttingen, Göttingen, Germany
- Sustainable Agricultural Systems & Engineering Laboratory/School of Engineering, Westlake University, Hangzhou, China
| | | | - Theodore Evans
- University of Western Australia, Perth, Australia
- Department of Biological Sciences, National University of Singapore, Singapore, Singapore
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6
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Derham T, Johnson C, Martin B, Ryeland J, Ondei S, Fielding M, Brook BW. Extinction of the Tasmanian emu and opportunities for rewilding. Glob Ecol Conserv 2023. [DOI: 10.1016/j.gecco.2022.e02358] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 12/24/2022] Open
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7
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Yates LA, Aandahl Z, Richards SA, Brook BW. Cross validation for model selection: a review with examples from ecology. ECOL MONOGR 2022. [DOI: 10.1002/ecm.1557] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/14/2022]
Affiliation(s)
- Luke A. Yates
- School of Natural Sciences University of Tasmania Hobart Tasmania Australia
| | - Zach Aandahl
- School of Natural Sciences University of Tasmania Hobart Tasmania Australia
| | - Shane A. Richards
- School of Natural Sciences University of Tasmania Hobart Tasmania Australia
| | - Barry W. Brook
- School of Natural Sciences University of Tasmania Hobart Tasmania Australia
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8
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Fielding MW, Cunningham CX, Buettel JC, Stojanovic D, Yates LA, Jones ME, Brook BW. Dominant carnivore loss benefits native avian and invasive mammalian scavengers. Proc Biol Sci 2022; 289:20220521. [PMID: 36285494 PMCID: PMC9597402 DOI: 10.1098/rspb.2022.0521] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/12/2022] Open
Abstract
Scavenging by large carnivores is integral for ecosystem functioning by limiting the build-up of carrion and facilitating widespread energy flows. However, top carnivores have declined across the world, triggering trophic shifts within ecosystems. Here, we compare findings from previous work on predator decline against areas with recent native mammalian carnivore loss. Specifically, we investigate top-down control on utilization of experimentally placed carcasses by two mesoscavengers—the invasive feral cat and native forest raven. Ravens profited most from carnivore loss, scavenging for five times longer in the absence of native mammalian carnivores. Cats scavenged on half of all carcasses in the region without dominant native carnivores. This was eight times more than in areas where other carnivores were at high densities. All carcasses persisted longer than the three-week monitoring period in the absence of native mammalian carnivores, while in areas with high carnivore abundance, all carcasses were fully consumed. Our results reveal that top-carnivore loss amplifies impacts associated with carnivore decline—increased carcass persistence and carrion access for smaller scavengers. This suggests that even at low densities, native mammalian carnivores can fulfil their ecological functions, demonstrating the significance of global carnivore conservation and supporting management approaches, such as trophic rewilding.
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Affiliation(s)
- Matthew W. Fielding
- School of Natural Sciences, University of Tasmania, Sandy Bay, Tasmania 7001, Australia
- ARC Centre of Excellence for Australian Biodiversity and Heritage, Sandy Bay, Tasmania 7001, Australia
| | - Calum X. Cunningham
- School of Natural Sciences, University of Tasmania, Sandy Bay, Tasmania 7001, Australia
- School of Environmental and Forest Sciences, College of the Environment, University of Washington, Seattle, WA 98195-2100, USA
| | - Jessie C. Buettel
- School of Natural Sciences, University of Tasmania, Sandy Bay, Tasmania 7001, Australia
- ARC Centre of Excellence for Australian Biodiversity and Heritage, Sandy Bay, Tasmania 7001, Australia
| | - Dejan Stojanovic
- Fenner School of Environment and Society, Australian National University, Canberra, Australia
| | - Luke A. Yates
- School of Natural Sciences, University of Tasmania, Sandy Bay, Tasmania 7001, Australia
- ARC Centre of Excellence for Australian Biodiversity and Heritage, Sandy Bay, Tasmania 7001, Australia
| | - Menna E. Jones
- School of Natural Sciences, University of Tasmania, Sandy Bay, Tasmania 7001, Australia
| | - Barry W. Brook
- School of Natural Sciences, University of Tasmania, Sandy Bay, Tasmania 7001, Australia
- ARC Centre of Excellence for Australian Biodiversity and Heritage, Sandy Bay, Tasmania 7001, Australia
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9
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Jarić I, Roll U, Bonaiuto M, Brook BW, Courchamp F, Firth JA, Gaston KJ, Heger T, Jeschke JM, Ladle RJ, Meinard Y, Roberts DL, Sherren K, Soga M, Soriano-Redondo A, Veríssimo D, Correia RA. Societal extinction of species. Trends Ecol Evol 2022; 37:411-419. [PMID: 35181167 DOI: 10.1016/j.tree.2021.12.011] [Citation(s) in RCA: 8] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/16/2021] [Revised: 12/21/2021] [Accepted: 12/24/2021] [Indexed: 12/19/2022]
Abstract
The ongoing global biodiversity crisis not only involves biological extinctions, but also the loss of experience and the gradual fading of cultural knowledge and collective memory of species. We refer to this phenomenon as 'societal extinction of species' and apply it to both extinct and extant taxa. We describe the underlying concepts as well as the mechanisms and factors that affect this process, discuss its main implications, and identify mitigation measures. Societal extinction is cognitively intractable, but it is tied to biological extinction and thus has important consequences for conservation policy and management. It affects societal perceptions of the severity of anthropogenic impacts and of true extinction rates, erodes societal support for conservation efforts, and causes the loss of cultural heritage.
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Affiliation(s)
- Ivan Jarić
- Biology Centre of the Czech Academy of Sciences, Institute of Hydrobiology, České Budějovice, Czech Republic; Department of Ecosystem Biology,(,) Faculty of Science, University of South Bohemia, České Budějovice, Czech Republic.
| | - Uri Roll
- Mitrani Department of Desert Ecology, The Jacob Blaustein Institutes for Desert Research Ben-Gurion University of the Negev, Midreshet Ben-Gurion, Israel
| | - Marino Bonaiuto
- CIRPA Centro Interuniversitario di Ricerca in Psicologia Ambientale, Dipartimento di Psicologia dei Processi di Sviluppo e Socializzazione, Sapienza Università di Roma, Rome, Italy
| | - Barry W Brook
- School of Natural Sciences, University of Tasmania, Hobart, Tasmania, Australia; ARC Centre of Excellence for Australian Biodiversity and Heritage, University of Tasmania, Hobart, Tasmania, Australia
| | - Franck Courchamp
- Université Paris-Saclay, CNRS, AgroParisTech, Ecologie Systématique Evolution, Orsay, France
| | - Josh A Firth
- Department of Zoology, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK
| | - Kevin J Gaston
- Environment and Sustainability Institute, University of Exeter, Penryn, Cornwall, UK
| | - Tina Heger
- Technical University of Munich, Restoration Ecology, Freising, Germany; Berlin-Brandenburg Institute of Advanced Biodiversity Research (BBIB), Berlin, Germany; Leibniz Institute of Freshwater Ecology and Inland Fisheries (IGB), Berlin, Germany; Institute of Biology, Freie Universität Berlin, Berlin, Germany
| | - Jonathan M Jeschke
- Berlin-Brandenburg Institute of Advanced Biodiversity Research (BBIB), Berlin, Germany; Leibniz Institute of Freshwater Ecology and Inland Fisheries (IGB), Berlin, Germany; Institute of Biology, Freie Universität Berlin, Berlin, Germany
| | - Richard J Ladle
- CIBIO/InBio, Centro de Investigação em Biodiversidade e Recursos Genéticos, Laboratório Associado, Universidade do Porto, Vairão, Portugal; Institute of Biological and Health Sciences, Federal University of Alagoas, Maceió, Alagoas, Brazil
| | - Yves Meinard
- Université Paris Dauphine, PSL Research University, CNRS, Paris, France
| | - David L Roberts
- Durrell Institute of Conservation and Ecology, School of Anthropology and Conservation, University of Kent, Canterbury, Kent, UK
| | - Kate Sherren
- School for Resource and Environmental Studies, Dalhousie University, Halifax, Canada
| | - Masashi Soga
- Graduate School of Agricultural and Life Sciences, The University of Tokyo, Tokyo, Japan
| | - Andrea Soriano-Redondo
- Helsinki Lab of Interdisciplinary Conservation Science (HELICS), Department of Geosciences and Geography, University of Helsinki, Helsinki, Finland; Helsinki Institute of Sustainability Science (HELSUS), University of Helsinki, Helsinki, Finland
| | | | - Ricardo A Correia
- Institute of Biological and Health Sciences, Federal University of Alagoas, Maceió, Alagoas, Brazil; Helsinki Lab of Interdisciplinary Conservation Science (HELICS), Department of Geosciences and Geography, University of Helsinki, Helsinki, Finland; Helsinki Institute of Sustainability Science (HELSUS), University of Helsinki, Helsinki, Finland; CESAM - Centre for Environmental and Marine Studies, University of Aveiro, Aveiro, Portugal
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10
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Lunn TJ, Nicol SC, Buettel JC, Brook BW. Population demography of the Tasmanian short-beaked echidna (Tachyglossus aculeatus). AUST J ZOOL 2022. [DOI: 10.1071/zo21037] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/23/2022]
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11
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Nguyen HKD, Fielding MW, Buettel JC, Brook BW. Predicting spatial and seasonal patterns of wildlife–vehicle collisions in high-risk areas†. Wildl Res 2022. [DOI: 10.1071/wr21018] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/23/2022]
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12
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Fordham DA, Brown SC, Akçakaya HR, Brook BW, Haythorne S, Manica A, Shoemaker KT, Austin JJ, Blonder B, Pilowsky J, Rahbek C, Nogues‐Bravo D. Cover Image. Ecol Lett 2021. [DOI: 10.1111/ele.13791] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/28/2022]
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13
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Yates LA, Brook BW, Buettel JC. Spatial pattern analysis of line-segment data in ecology. Ecology 2021; 103:e03597. [PMID: 34816432 DOI: 10.1002/ecy.3597] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/22/2021] [Revised: 08/10/2021] [Accepted: 09/10/2021] [Indexed: 11/09/2022]
Abstract
The spatial analysis of linear features (lines and curves) is a challenging and rarely attempted problem in ecology. Existing methods are typically expressed in abstract mathematical formalism, making it difficult to assess their relevance and transferability into an ecological setting. We introduce a set of concrete and accessible methods to analyze the spatial patterning of line-segment data. The methods include Monte Carlo techniques based on a new generalization of Ripley's K -function and a class of line-segment processes that can be used to specify parametric models: parameters are estimated using maximum likelihood and models compared using information-theoretic principles. We apply the new methods to fallen tree (dead log) data collected from two 1-ha Australian tall eucalypt forest plots. Our results show that the spatial pattern of the fallen logs is best explained by plot-level spatial heterogeneity in combination with a slope-dependent nonuniform distribution of fallen-log orientations. These methods are of a general nature and are applicable to any line-segment data. In the context of forest ecology, the integration of fallen logs as linear structural features in a landscape with the point locations of living trees, and a quantification of their interactions, can yield new insights into the functional and structural role of tree fall in forest communities and their enduring post-mortem ecological legacy as spatially distributed decomposing logs.
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Affiliation(s)
- Luke A Yates
- School of Natural Sciences, University of Tasmania, Hobart, Tasmania, 7005, Australia
| | - Barry W Brook
- School of Natural Sciences, University of Tasmania, Hobart, Tasmania, 7005, Australia
| | - Jessie C Buettel
- School of Natural Sciences, University of Tasmania, Hobart, Tasmania, 7005, Australia
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14
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Fordham DA, Brown SC, Akçakaya HR, Brook BW, Haythorne S, Manica A, Shoemaker KT, Austin JJ, Blonder B, Pilowsky J, Rahbek C, Nogues-Bravo D. Process-explicit models reveal pathway to extinction for woolly mammoth using pattern-oriented validation. Ecol Lett 2021; 25:125-137. [PMID: 34738712 DOI: 10.1111/ele.13911] [Citation(s) in RCA: 10] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/04/2021] [Revised: 09/18/2021] [Accepted: 10/05/2021] [Indexed: 12/01/2022]
Abstract
Pathways to extinction start long before the death of the last individual. However, causes of early stage population declines and the susceptibility of small residual populations to extirpation are typically studied in isolation. Using validated process-explicit models, we disentangle the ecological mechanisms and threats that were integral in the initial decline and later extinction of the woolly mammoth. We show that reconciling ancient DNA data on woolly mammoth population decline with fossil evidence of location and timing of extinction requires process-explicit models with specific demographic and niche constraints, and a constrained synergy of climatic change and human impacts. Validated models needed humans to hasten climate-driven population declines by many millennia, and to allow woolly mammoths to persist in mainland Arctic refugia until the mid-Holocene. Our results show that the role of humans in the extinction dynamics of woolly mammoth began well before the Holocene, exerting lasting effects on the spatial pattern and timing of its range-wide extinction.
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Affiliation(s)
- Damien A Fordham
- The Environment Institute and School of Biological Sciences, University of Adelaide, Adelaide, South Australia, Australia.,Center for Macroecology, Evolution, and Climate, GLOBE Institute, University of Copenhagen, Copenhagen, Denmark
| | - Stuart C Brown
- The Environment Institute and School of Biological Sciences, University of Adelaide, Adelaide, South Australia, Australia
| | - H Reşit Akçakaya
- Department of Ecology and Evolution, Stony Brook University, Stony Brook, New York, USA
| | - Barry W Brook
- School of Natural Sciences and ARC Centre of Excellence for Australian Biodiversity and Heritage, University of Tasmania, Hobart, Tasmania, Australia
| | - Sean Haythorne
- The Environment Institute and School of Biological Sciences, University of Adelaide, Adelaide, South Australia, Australia
| | - Andrea Manica
- Department of Zoology, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, England
| | - Kevin T Shoemaker
- Department of Natural Resources and Environmental Science, University of Nevada, Reno, Nevada, USA
| | - Jeremy J Austin
- The Environment Institute and School of Biological Sciences, University of Adelaide, Adelaide, South Australia, Australia
| | - Benjamin Blonder
- Department of Environmental Science, Policy, and Management, University of California, Berkeley, California, USA
| | - Julia Pilowsky
- The Environment Institute and School of Biological Sciences, University of Adelaide, Adelaide, South Australia, Australia.,Center for Macroecology, Evolution, and Climate, GLOBE Institute, University of Copenhagen, Copenhagen, Denmark
| | - Carsten Rahbek
- Center for Macroecology, Evolution, and Climate, GLOBE Institute, University of Copenhagen, Copenhagen, Denmark.,Department of Life Sciences, Imperial College London, Ascot, England.,Danish Institute for Advanced Study, University of Southern Denmark, Odense, Denmark.,Institute of Ecology, Peking University, Beijing, China
| | - David Nogues-Bravo
- Center for Macroecology, Evolution, and Climate, GLOBE Institute, University of Copenhagen, Copenhagen, Denmark
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15
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Fordham DA, Haythorne S, Brown SC, Buettel JC, Brook BW. poems: R package for simulating species' range dynamics using pattern‐oriented validation. Methods Ecol Evol 2021. [DOI: 10.1111/2041-210x.13720] [Citation(s) in RCA: 6] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 01/29/2023]
Affiliation(s)
- Damien A. Fordham
- The Environment Institute and School of Biological Sciences University of Adelaide SA Australia
| | - Sean Haythorne
- The Environment Institute and School of Biological Sciences University of Adelaide SA Australia
- School of Natural Sciences and ARC Centre of Excellence for Australian Biodiversity and Heritage University of Tasmania Hobart TAS Australia
| | - Stuart C. Brown
- The Environment Institute and School of Biological Sciences University of Adelaide SA Australia
- GLOBE Institute University of Copenhagen Copenhagen K Denmark
| | - Jessie C. Buettel
- School of Natural Sciences and ARC Centre of Excellence for Australian Biodiversity and Heritage University of Tasmania Hobart TAS Australia
| | - Barry W. Brook
- School of Natural Sciences and ARC Centre of Excellence for Australian Biodiversity and Heritage University of Tasmania Hobart TAS Australia
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16
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Lévêque L, Buettel JC, Carver S, Brook BW. Characterizing the spatio-temporal threats, conservation hotspots and conservation gaps for the most extinction-prone bird family (Aves: Rallidae). R Soc Open Sci 2021; 8:210262. [PMID: 34527269 PMCID: PMC8424349 DOI: 10.1098/rsos.210262] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/16/2021] [Accepted: 08/03/2021] [Indexed: 06/13/2023]
Abstract
With thousands of vertebrate species now threatened with extinction, there is an urgent need to understand and mitigate the causes of wildlife collapse. Rails (Aves: Rallidae), being the most extinction-prone bird family globally, and with one-third of extant rail species now threatened or near threatened, are an emphatic case in point. Here, we undertook a global synthesis of the temporal and spatial threat patterns for Rallidae and determined conservation priorities and gaps. We found two key pathways in the threat pattern for rails. One follows the same trajectory as extinct rails, where island endemic and flightless rails are most threatened, mainly due to invasive predators. The second, created by the diversification of anthropogenic activities, involves continental rails, threatened mainly by agriculture, natural system modifications, and residential and commercial development. Indonesia, the USA, the United Kingdom, New Zealand and Cuba were the priority countries identified by our framework incorporating species' uniqueness and the level of endangerment, but also among the countries that lack conservation actions the most. Future efforts should predominantly target improvements in ecosystem protection and management, as well as ongoing research and monitoring. Forecasting the impacts of climate change on island endemic rails will be particularly valuable to protect rails.
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Affiliation(s)
- Lucile Lévêque
- School of Natural Sciences, University of Tasmania, Private Bag 55, Hobart, Tasmania 7001, Australia
| | - Jessie C Buettel
- School of Natural Sciences, University of Tasmania, Private Bag 55, Hobart, Tasmania 7001, Australia
- ARC Centre of Excellence for Australian Biodiversity and Heritage (CABAH), Australia
| | - Scott Carver
- School of Natural Sciences, University of Tasmania, Private Bag 55, Hobart, Tasmania 7001, Australia
| | - Barry W Brook
- School of Natural Sciences, University of Tasmania, Private Bag 55, Hobart, Tasmania 7001, Australia
- ARC Centre of Excellence for Australian Biodiversity and Heritage (CABAH), Australia
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17
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Yates LA, Richards SA, Brook BW. Parsimonious model selection using information theory: a modified selection rule. Ecology 2021; 102:e03475. [PMID: 34272730 DOI: 10.1002/ecy.3475] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/13/2020] [Revised: 02/16/2021] [Accepted: 05/13/2021] [Indexed: 11/08/2022]
Abstract
Information-theoretic approaches to model selection, such as Akaike's information criterion (AIC) and cross validation, provide a rigorous framework to select among candidate hypotheses in ecology, yet the persistent concern of overfitting undermines the interpretation of inferred processes. A common misconception is that overfitting is due to the choice of criterion or model score, despite research demonstrating that selection uncertainty associated with score estimation is the predominant influence. Here we introduce a novel selection rule that identifies a parsimonious model by directly accounting for estimation uncertainty, while still retaining an information-theoretic interpretation. The new rule, which is a modification of the existing one-standard-error rule, mitigates overfitting and reduces the likelihood that spurious effects will be included in the selected model, thereby improving its inferential properties. We present the rule and illustrative examples in the context of maximum-likelihood estimation and Kullback-Leibler discrepancy, although the rule is applicable in a more general setting, including Bayesian model selection and other types of discrepancy.
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Affiliation(s)
- Luke A Yates
- School of Natural Sciences, University of Tasmania, Hobart, Tasmania, 7005, Australia
| | - Shane A Richards
- School of Natural Sciences, University of Tasmania, Hobart, Tasmania, 7005, Australia
| | - Barry W Brook
- School of Natural Sciences, University of Tasmania, Hobart, Tasmania, 7005, Australia
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18
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Fielding MW, Buettel JC, Brook BW, Stojanovic D, Yates LA. Roadkill islands: Carnivore extinction shifts seasonal use of roadside carrion by generalist avian scavenger. J Anim Ecol 2021; 90:2268-2276. [PMID: 34013520 DOI: 10.1111/1365-2656.13532] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/11/2021] [Accepted: 05/14/2021] [Indexed: 11/28/2022]
Abstract
Global road networks facilitate habitat modification and are integral to human expansion. Many animals, particularly scavengers, use roads as they provide a reliable source of food, such as carrion left after vehicle collisions. Tasmania is often cited as the 'roadkill capital of Australia', with the isolated offshore islands in the Bass Strait experiencing similar, if not higher, levels of roadkill. However, native mammalian predators on the islands are extirpated, meaning the remaining scavengers are likely to experience lower interference competition. In this study, we used a naturally occurring experiment to examine how the loss of mammalian carnivores within a community impacts roadside foraging behaviour by avian scavengers. We monitored the locations of roadkill and forest ravens Corvus tasmanicus, an abundant scavenger species, on eight road transects across the Tasmanian mainland (high scavenging competition) and the Bass Strait islands (low scavenging competition). We represented raven observations as one-dimensional point patterns, using hierarchical Bayesian models to investigate the dependence of raven spatial intensity on habitat, season, distance to roadkill and route location. We found that roadkill carcasses were a strong predictor of raven presence along road networks. The effect of roadkill was amplified on roads on the Bass Strait islands, where roadside carrion was a predictor of raven presence across the entire year. In contrast, ravens were more often associated with roadkill on Tasmanian mainland roads in the autumn, when other resources were low. This suggests that in the absence of competing mammalian scavengers, ravens choose to feed on roadside carrion throughout the year, even in seasons when other resources are available. This lack of competition could be disproportionately benefiting forest ravens, leading to augmented raven populations and changes to the vertebrate community structure. Our study provides evidence that scavengers modify their behaviour in response to reduced scavenger species diversity, potentially triggering trophic shifts and highlighting the importance of conserving or reintroducing carnivores within ecosystems.
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Affiliation(s)
- Matthew W Fielding
- School of Natural Sciences, University of Tasmania, Sandy Bay, TAS, Australia.,ARC Centre of Excellence for Australian Biodiversity and Heritage, Hobart, TAS, Australia
| | - Jessie C Buettel
- School of Natural Sciences, University of Tasmania, Sandy Bay, TAS, Australia.,ARC Centre of Excellence for Australian Biodiversity and Heritage, Hobart, TAS, Australia
| | - Barry W Brook
- School of Natural Sciences, University of Tasmania, Sandy Bay, TAS, Australia.,ARC Centre of Excellence for Australian Biodiversity and Heritage, Hobart, TAS, Australia
| | - Dejan Stojanovic
- Fenner School of Environment and Society, Australian National University, Canberra, Australia
| | - Luke A Yates
- School of Natural Sciences, University of Tasmania, Sandy Bay, TAS, Australia.,ARC Centre of Excellence for Australian Biodiversity and Heritage, Hobart, TAS, Australia
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19
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Cunningham CX, Comte S, McCallum H, Hamilton DG, Hamede R, Storfer A, Hollings T, Ruiz-Aravena M, Kerlin DH, Brook BW, Hocking G, Jones ME. Quantifying 25 years of disease-caused declines in Tasmanian devil populations: host density drives spatial pathogen spread. Ecol Lett 2021; 24:958-969. [PMID: 33638597 PMCID: PMC9844790 DOI: 10.1111/ele.13703] [Citation(s) in RCA: 28] [Impact Index Per Article: 9.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/07/2020] [Revised: 11/11/2020] [Accepted: 01/15/2021] [Indexed: 01/19/2023]
Abstract
Infectious diseases are strong drivers of wildlife population dynamics, however, empirical analyses from the early stages of pathogen emergence are rare. Tasmanian devil facial tumour disease (DFTD), discovered in 1996, provides the opportunity to study an epizootic from its inception. We use a pattern-oriented diffusion simulation to model the spatial spread of DFTD across the species' range and quantify population effects by jointly modelling multiple streams of data spanning 35 years. We estimate the wild devil population peaked at 53 000 in 1996, less than half of previous estimates. DFTD spread rapidly through high-density areas, with spread velocity slowing in areas of low host densities. By 2020, DFTD occupied >90% of the species' range, causing 82% declines in local densities and reducing the total population to 16 900. Encouragingly, our model forecasts the population decline should level-off within the next decade, supporting conservation management focused on facilitating evolution of resistance and tolerance.
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Affiliation(s)
- Calum X. Cunningham
- School of Natural Sciences, University of Tasmania, Private Bag 55, Hobart, TAS 7001, Australia,Correspondence: ;
| | - Sebastien Comte
- School of Natural Sciences, University of Tasmania, Private Bag 55, Hobart, TAS 7001, Australia,Vertebrate Pest Research Unit, NSW Department of Primary Industries, 1447 Forest Road, Orange, NSW 2800, Australia
| | - Hamish McCallum
- Environmental Futures Research Institute and School of Environment and Science, Griffith University, Nathan, Qld 4111, Australia
| | - David G. Hamilton
- School of Natural Sciences, University of Tasmania, Private Bag 55, Hobart, TAS 7001, Australia
| | - Rodrigo Hamede
- School of Natural Sciences, University of Tasmania, Private Bag 55, Hobart, TAS 7001, Australia,CANECEV – Centre de Recherches Ecologiques et Evolutives sur le cancer (CREEC), Montpellier 34090, France
| | - Andrew Storfer
- School of Biological Sciences, Washington State University, Pullman, WA 99164-4236, USA
| | - Tracey Hollings
- Arthur Rylah Institute for Environmental Research, 123 Brown Street, Heidelberg, Vic. 3084, Australia,School of BioSciences, The University of Melbourne, Parkville, Vic. 3010, Australia
| | - Manuel Ruiz-Aravena
- Department of Microbiology and Immunology, Montana State University, Bozeman, MT 59717, USA
| | - Douglas H. Kerlin
- Environmental Futures Research Institute and School of Environment and Science, Griffith University, Nathan, Qld 4111, Australia
| | - Barry W. Brook
- School of Natural Sciences, University of Tasmania, Private Bag 55, Hobart, TAS 7001, Australia,ARC Centre of Excellence for Australian Biodiversity and Heritage (CABAH), University of Tasmania, Hobart, Tasmania 7001, Australia
| | - Greg Hocking
- Game Services Tasmania, Tasmanian Department of Primary Industries, Parks, Water and Environment, TAS, PO Box 44, Hobart 7001, Australia
| | - Manna E. Jones
- School of Natural Sciences, University of Tasmania, Private Bag 55, Hobart, TAS 7001, Australia
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20
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Wheatley R, Buettel JC, Brook BW, Johnson CN, Wilson RP. Accidents alter animal fitness landscapes. Ecol Lett 2021; 24:920-934. [PMID: 33751743 DOI: 10.1111/ele.13705] [Citation(s) in RCA: 6] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/27/2020] [Revised: 10/13/2020] [Accepted: 01/25/2021] [Indexed: 01/08/2023]
Abstract
Animals alter their habitat use in response to the energetic demands of movement ('energy landscapes') and the risk of predation ('the landscape of fear'). Recent research suggests that animals also select habitats and move in ways that minimise their chance of temporarily losing control of movement and thereby suffering slips, falls, collisions or other accidents, particularly when the consequences are likely to be severe (resulting in injury or death). We propose that animals respond to the costs of an 'accident landscape' in conjunction with predation risk and energetic costs when deciding when, where, and how to move in their daily lives. We develop a novel theoretical framework describing how features of physical landscapes interact with animal size, morphology, and behaviour to affect the risk and severity of accidents, and predict how accident risk might interact with predation risk and energetic costs to dictate movement decisions across the physical landscape. Future research should focus on testing the hypotheses presented here for different real-world systems to gain insight into the relative importance of theorised effects in the field.
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Affiliation(s)
- Rebecca Wheatley
- School of Natural Sciences and the Australian Research Council Centre of Excellence for Australian Biodiversity and Heritage, University of Tasmania, Hobart, Tasmania, Australia
| | - Jessie C Buettel
- School of Natural Sciences and the Australian Research Council Centre of Excellence for Australian Biodiversity and Heritage, University of Tasmania, Hobart, Tasmania, Australia
| | - Barry W Brook
- School of Natural Sciences and the Australian Research Council Centre of Excellence for Australian Biodiversity and Heritage, University of Tasmania, Hobart, Tasmania, Australia
| | - Christopher N Johnson
- School of Natural Sciences and the Australian Research Council Centre of Excellence for Australian Biodiversity and Heritage, University of Tasmania, Hobart, Tasmania, Australia
| | - Rory P Wilson
- Department of Biosciences, Swansea University, Swansea, UK
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21
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Paton AJ, Buettel JC, Brook BW. Evaluating scat surveys as a tool for population and community assessments. Wildl Res 2021. [DOI: 10.1071/wr21056] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/23/2022]
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22
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Morris SD, Johnson CN, Brook BW. Roughing it: terrain is crucial in identifying novel translocation sites for the vulnerable brush-tailed rock-wallaby ( Petrogale pencillata). R Soc Open Sci 2020; 7:201603. [PMID: 33489291 PMCID: PMC7813239 DOI: 10.1098/rsos.201603] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/07/2020] [Accepted: 11/26/2020] [Indexed: 06/12/2023]
Abstract
Translocations-the movement of species from one place to another-are likely to become more common as conservation attempts to protect small isolated populations from threats posed by extreme events such as bushfires. The recent Australian mega-fires burnt almost 40% of the habitat of the brush-tailed rock-wallaby (Petrogale pencillata), a threatened species whose distribution is already restricted, primarily due to predation by invasive species. This chronic threat of over-predation, coupled with the possible extinction of the genetically distinct southern population (approx. 40 individuals in the wild), makes this species a candidate for a conservation translocation. Here, we use species distribution models to identify translocation sites for the brush-tailed rock-wallaby. Our models exhibited high predictive accuracy, and show that terrain roughness, a surrogate for predator refugia, is the most important variable. Tasmania, which currently has no rock-wallabies, showed high suitability and is fox-free, making it a promising candidate site. We outline our argument for the trial translocation of rock-wallaby to Maria Island, located off Tasmania's eastern coast. This research offers a transparent assessment of the translocation potential of a threatened species, which can be adapted to other taxa and systems.
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Affiliation(s)
- Shane D. Morris
- School of Natural Sciences, University of Tasmania, Private Bag 55, Hobart, Tasmania 7001, Australia
| | - Christopher N. Johnson
- School of Natural Sciences, University of Tasmania, Private Bag 55, Hobart, Tasmania 7001, Australia
- ARC Centre of Excellence for Australian Biodiversity and Heritage, University of Tasmania, Hobart, Tasmania 7001, Australia
| | - Barry W. Brook
- School of Natural Sciences, University of Tasmania, Private Bag 55, Hobart, Tasmania 7001, Australia
- ARC Centre of Excellence for Australian Biodiversity and Heritage, University of Tasmania, Hobart, Tasmania 7001, Australia
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23
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Flies EJ, Jones P, Buettel JC, Brook BW. Compromised Ecosystem Services From Urban Aerial Microbiomes: A Review of Impacts on Human Immune Function. Front Ecol Evol 2020. [DOI: 10.3389/fevo.2020.568902] [Citation(s) in RCA: 8] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 12/17/2022] Open
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24
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Jones AR, Jessop TS, Ariefiandy A, Brook BW, Brown SC, Ciofi C, Benu YJ, Purwandana D, Sitorus T, Wigley TML, Fordham DA. Identifying island safe havens to prevent the extinction of the World's largest lizard from global warming. Ecol Evol 2020; 10:10492-10507. [PMID: 33072275 PMCID: PMC7548163 DOI: 10.1002/ece3.6705] [Citation(s) in RCA: 5] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/29/2020] [Accepted: 07/30/2020] [Indexed: 11/10/2022] Open
Abstract
The Komodo dragon (Varanus komodoensis) is an endangered, island‐endemic species with a naturally restricted distribution. Despite this, no previous studies have attempted to predict the effects of climate change on this iconic species. We used extensive Komodo dragon monitoring data, climate, and sea‐level change projections to build spatially explicit demographic models for the Komodo dragon. These models project the species’ future range and abundance under multiple climate change scenarios. We ran over one million model simulations with varying model parameters, enabling us to incorporate uncertainty introduced from three main sources: (a) structure of global climate models, (b) choice of greenhouse gas emission trajectories, and (c) estimates of Komodo dragon demographic parameters. Our models predict a reduction in range‐wide Komodo dragon habitat of 8%–87% by 2050, leading to a decrease in habitat patch occupancy of 25%–97% and declines of 27%–99% in abundance across the species' range. We show that the risk of extirpation on the two largest protected islands in Komodo National Park (Rinca and Komodo) was lower than other island populations, providing important safe havens for Komodo dragons under global warming. Given the severity and rate of the predicted changes to Komodo dragon habitat patch occupancy (a proxy for area of occupancy) and abundance, urgent conservation actions are required to avoid risk of extinction. These should, as a priority, be focused on managing habitat on the islands of Komodo and Rinca, reflecting these islands’ status as important refuges for the species in a warming world. Variability in our model projections highlights the importance of accounting for uncertainties in demographic and environmental parameters, structural assumptions of global climate models, and greenhouse gas emission scenarios when simulating species metapopulation dynamics under climate change.
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Affiliation(s)
- Alice R Jones
- The Environment Institute and School of Biological Sciences The University of Adelaide Adelaide SA Australia.,Department for Environment and Water Adelaide SA Australia
| | - Tim S Jessop
- Centre for Integrative Ecology School of Life and Environmental Sciences Deakin University Waurn Ponds Vic. Australia.,Komodo Survival Program Bali Indonesia
| | | | - Barry W Brook
- School of Natural Sciences University of Tasmania Hobart Tas Australia
| | - Stuart C Brown
- The Environment Institute and School of Biological Sciences The University of Adelaide Adelaide SA Australia
| | - Claudio Ciofi
- Komodo Survival Program Bali Indonesia.,Department of Biology University of Florence Sesto Fiorentino Italy
| | | | | | - Tamen Sitorus
- Balai Besar Konservasi Sumber Daya Alam Kupang Indonesia
| | - Tom M L Wigley
- The Environment Institute and School of Biological Sciences The University of Adelaide Adelaide SA Australia.,Climate and Global Dynamics Laboratory National Center for Atmospheric Research Boulder CO USA
| | - Damien A Fordham
- The Environment Institute and School of Biological Sciences The University of Adelaide Adelaide SA Australia
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Flies EJ, Clarke LJ, Brook BW, Jones P. Urbanisation reduces the abundance and diversity of airborne microbes - but what does that mean for our health? A systematic review. Sci Total Environ 2020; 738:140337. [PMID: 32806360 DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.140337] [Citation(s) in RCA: 19] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/26/2020] [Revised: 06/16/2020] [Accepted: 06/16/2020] [Indexed: 05/21/2023]
Abstract
Over half of people live in cities and while urban environments offer myriad social, cultural and economic benefits, they alter the microbial communities to which people are exposed: with potentially important but underexplored health impacts. In particular, higher rates of asthma and allergies in urban areas have been linked to urban-altered microbial communities - including aerial microbial communities. To date, however, there has been no synthesis of the disparate literature on the impacts of urbanisation on aerial microbial communities, making it difficult to ascertain potential health impacts. We fill this knowledge gap by systematically examining studies that compare the characteristics (e.g. microbial abundance/diversity) and/or health effects of airborne fungal and bacterial communities (hereafter referred to as 'aerobiomes') across urban and rural locations. We included 19 studies, with 31 distinct urban-rural comparisons, in our analysis. We found that rural aerobiomes more often have a greater abundance of microbes (57% of studies). Aerobiome diversity was under-reported but when comparisons were made, rural aerobiome diversity was often higher (67%). Only two studies experimentally examined the impact of urban and rural aerobiomes on human health outcomes; both found rural aerobiomes shifted immune function away from allergic (Th2-type) responses. Overall, we conclude that significant gaps remain in our understanding of how urbanisation impacts aerobiomes and the health implications of those changes. We highlight the need to standardise methods and make aerobiome data open access to facilitate cross-study comparisons. Further mechanistic studies are urgently needed to examine the impact of aerobiome composition on immune function to demonstrate how urban-driven changes to the aerobiome impact human health - ultimately facilitating the development of healthier cities.
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Affiliation(s)
- Emily J Flies
- School of Natural Sciences, University of Tasmania, Australia.
| | - Laurence J Clarke
- Antarctic Climate & Ecosystems Cooperative Research Centre, University of Tasmania, Australia; Institute for Marine and Antarctic Studies, University of Tasmania, Australia
| | - Barry W Brook
- School of Natural Sciences, University of Tasmania, Australia; ARC Centre of Excellence for Australian Biodiversity and Heritage (CABAH), Australia
| | - Penelope Jones
- Menzies Institute for Medical Research, University of Tasmania, Australia
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26
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Fordham DA, Jackson ST, Brown SC, Huntley B, Brook BW, Dahl-Jensen D, Gilbert MTP, Otto-Bliesner BL, Svensson A, Theodoridis S, Wilmshurst JM, Buettel JC, Canteri E, McDowell M, Orlando L, Pilowsky J, Rahbek C, Nogues-Bravo D. Using paleo-archives to safeguard biodiversity under climate change. Science 2020; 369:369/6507/eabc5654. [PMID: 32855310 DOI: 10.1126/science.abc5654] [Citation(s) in RCA: 49] [Impact Index Per Article: 12.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/30/2020] [Accepted: 06/30/2020] [Indexed: 12/29/2022]
Abstract
Strategies for 21st-century environmental management and conservation under global change require a strong understanding of the biological mechanisms that mediate responses to climate- and human-driven change to successfully mitigate range contractions, extinctions, and the degradation of ecosystem services. Biodiversity responses to past rapid warming events can be followed in situ and over extended periods, using cross-disciplinary approaches that provide cost-effective and scalable information for species' conservation and the maintenance of resilient ecosystems in many bioregions. Beyond the intrinsic knowledge gain such integrative research will increasingly provide the context, tools, and relevant case studies to assist in mitigating climate-driven biodiversity losses in the 21st century and beyond.
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Affiliation(s)
- Damien A Fordham
- The Environment Institute and School of Biological Sciences, University of Adelaide, South Australia 5005, Australia. .,Center for Macroecology, Evolution, and Climate, GLOBE Institute, University of Copenhagen, Copenhagen Ø 2100, Denmark
| | - Stephen T Jackson
- Southwest and South Central Climate Adaptation Science Centers, U.S. Geological Survey, Tucson, AZ 85721, USA.,Department of Geosciences and School of Natural Resources and the Environment, University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ 85721, USA
| | - Stuart C Brown
- The Environment Institute and School of Biological Sciences, University of Adelaide, South Australia 5005, Australia
| | - Brian Huntley
- Department of Biosciences, Durham University, Durham, DH1 3LE, UK
| | - Barry W Brook
- School of Natural Sciences and ARC Centre of Excellence for Australian Biodiversity and Heritage, University of Tasmania, Hobart, Tasmania 7001, Australia
| | - Dorthe Dahl-Jensen
- Centre for Ice and Climate, Niels Bohr Institute, University of Copenhagen, Juliane Maries Vej 30, 2100 Copenhagen Ø 2100, Denmark.,Centre for Earth Observation Science, University of Manitoba, Winnipeg MB R3T 2N2, Canada
| | - M Thomas P Gilbert
- Center for Evolutionary Hologenomics, GLOBE Institute, University of Copenhagen, Copenhagen Ø 2100, Denmark.,University Museum, Norwegian University of Science and Technology, Trondheim, Norway
| | - Bette L Otto-Bliesner
- Climate and Global Dynamics Laboratory, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO 80307-3000, USA
| | - Anders Svensson
- Centre for Ice and Climate, Niels Bohr Institute, University of Copenhagen, Juliane Maries Vej 30, 2100 Copenhagen Ø 2100, Denmark
| | - Spyros Theodoridis
- Center for Macroecology, Evolution, and Climate, GLOBE Institute, University of Copenhagen, Copenhagen Ø 2100, Denmark
| | - Janet M Wilmshurst
- Long-Term Ecology Laboratory, Manaaki Whenua-Landcare Research, Lincoln 7640, New Zealand.,School of Environment, The University of Auckland, Auckland 1142, New Zealand
| | - Jessie C Buettel
- School of Natural Sciences and ARC Centre of Excellence for Australian Biodiversity and Heritage, University of Tasmania, Hobart, Tasmania 7001, Australia
| | - Elisabetta Canteri
- The Environment Institute and School of Biological Sciences, University of Adelaide, South Australia 5005, Australia.,Center for Macroecology, Evolution, and Climate, GLOBE Institute, University of Copenhagen, Copenhagen Ø 2100, Denmark
| | - Matthew McDowell
- School of Natural Sciences and ARC Centre of Excellence for Australian Biodiversity and Heritage, University of Tasmania, Hobart, Tasmania 7001, Australia
| | - Ludovic Orlando
- Laboratoire d'Anthropobiologie Moléculaire et d'Imagerie de Synthèse UMR 5288, Université de Toulouse, CNRS, Université Paul Sabatier, France.,Section for GeoGenetics, GLOBE Institute, University of Copenhagen, Copenhagen Ø 2100, Denmark
| | - Julia Pilowsky
- The Environment Institute and School of Biological Sciences, University of Adelaide, South Australia 5005, Australia.,Center for Macroecology, Evolution, and Climate, GLOBE Institute, University of Copenhagen, Copenhagen Ø 2100, Denmark
| | - Carsten Rahbek
- Center for Macroecology, Evolution, and Climate, GLOBE Institute, University of Copenhagen, Copenhagen Ø 2100, Denmark.,Department of Life Sciences, Imperial College London, Ascot SL5 7PY, UK.,Danish Institute for Advanced Study, University of Southern Denmark, Odense, Denmark.,Institute of Ecology, Peking University, Beijing 100871, China
| | - David Nogues-Bravo
- Center for Macroecology, Evolution, and Climate, GLOBE Institute, University of Copenhagen, Copenhagen Ø 2100, Denmark
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28
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Wanger TC, Ainun N, Brook BW, Friess DA, Oh RRY, Rusdin A, Smithers S, Tjoa A. Ecosystem-Based Tsunami Mitigation for Tropical Biodiversity Hotspots. Trends Ecol Evol 2019; 35:96-100. [PMID: 31837810 DOI: 10.1016/j.tree.2019.10.008] [Citation(s) in RCA: 6] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/05/2019] [Revised: 10/13/2019] [Accepted: 10/15/2019] [Indexed: 11/28/2022]
Abstract
Inclusion of ecosystem-based approaches in the governmental masterplan for tsunami mitigation in Palu, Indonesia may make the city a rare case study for ecological disaster risk reduction in tropical biodiversity hotspots. Such case studies are a key pillar of the United Nations (UN) Sendai Framework to protect coastal societies globally.
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Affiliation(s)
- Thomas Cherico Wanger
- Agroecology and Centre of Biodiversity and Sustainable Land Use, University of Göttingen, Germany; Sustainability, Agriculture and Technology Laboratory, School of Engineering, Westlake University, China.
| | - Nur Ainun
- Fakultas Pertanian, Tadulako University, Palu, Indonesia
| | - Barry W Brook
- School of Natural Sciences, University of Tasmania, Australia
| | - Daniel A Friess
- Department of Geography, National University of Singapore, Singapore
| | - Rachel R Y Oh
- School of Biological Sciences, University of Queensland, Australia
| | - Andi Rusdin
- Faculty of Engineering, Tadulako University, Palu, Indonesia
| | - Scott Smithers
- College of Science and Engineering, James Cook University, Australia
| | - Aiyen Tjoa
- Fakultas Pertanian, Tadulako University, Palu, Indonesia
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Flies EJ, Mavoa S, Zosky GR, Mantzioris E, Williams C, Eri R, Brook BW, Buettel JC. Urban-associated diseases: Candidate diseases, environmental risk factors, and a path forward. Environ Int 2019; 133:105187. [PMID: 31648161 DOI: 10.1016/j.envint.2019.105187] [Citation(s) in RCA: 50] [Impact Index Per Article: 10.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/11/2019] [Revised: 09/13/2019] [Accepted: 09/13/2019] [Indexed: 05/24/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Cities are home to over half the global population; that proportion is expected to rise to 70% by mid-century. The urban environment differs greatly from that in which humans evolved, with potentially important consequences for health. Rates for allergic, inflammatory and auto-immune diseases appear to rise with urbanization and be higher in the more urbanized nations of the world which has led some to suggest that cities promote the occurrence of these diseases. However, there are no syntheses outlining what urban-associated diseases are and what characteristics of cities promote their occurrence. OBJECTIVES To synthesize the current understanding of "urban-associated diseases", and discover the common, potentially modifiable features of cities that may be driving these associations. METHODS We focus on any diseases that have been associated with cities or are particularly prominent in today's urban societies. We draw on expertise across diverse health fields to examine the evidence for urban connections and drivers. DISCUSSION We found evidence for urban associations across allergic, auto-immune, inflammatory, lifestyle and infectious disease categories. Some conditions (e.g. obesity and diabetes) have complex relationships with cities that have been insufficiently explored. Other conditions (e.g. allergies and asthma) have more evidence demonstrating their relationship with cities and the mechanisms driving that association. Unsurprisingly, air pollution was the characteristic of cities most frequently associated with disease. Other identified urban risk factors are not as widely known: altered microbial exposure and a disconnect from environmental microbiomes, vitamin D deficiency, noise and light pollution, and a transient, over-crowded, impoverished population. However, many complexities and caveats to these relationships beg clarification; we highlight the current knowledge gaps and outline ways to fill those gaps. Identifying urban-associated diseases and their drivers will allow us to prepare for the urban-disease burden of the future and create healthy cities that mitigate that disease burden.
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Affiliation(s)
- Emily J Flies
- School of Natural Sciences, College of Science and Engineering, University of Tasmania, Hobart, Australia.
| | - Suzanne Mavoa
- Melbourne School of Population and Global Health, University of Melbourne, Melbourne, Australia
| | - Graeme R Zosky
- Menzies Institute for Medical Research, College of Health and Medicine, University of Tasmania, Hobart, Australia; School of Medicine, College of Health and Medicine, University of Tasmania, Hobart, Australia
| | - Evangeline Mantzioris
- School of Pharmacy and Medical Sciences & Alliance for Research in Exercise, Nutrition and Activity (ARENA), University of South Australia, Adelaide, Australia
| | - Craig Williams
- School of Pharmacy and Medical Sciences, University of South Australia, Adelaide, Australia
| | - Rajaraman Eri
- School of Health Sciences, College of Health and Medicine, University of Tasmania, Hobart, Australia
| | - Barry W Brook
- School of Natural Sciences, College of Science and Engineering, University of Tasmania, Hobart, Australia
| | - Jessie C Buettel
- School of Natural Sciences, College of Science and Engineering, University of Tasmania, Hobart, Australia
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Ondei S, Brook BW, Buettel JC. A flexible tool to prioritize areas for conservation combining landscape units, measures of biodiversity, and threats. Ecosphere 2019. [DOI: 10.1002/ecs2.2859] [Citation(s) in RCA: 4] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/08/2022] Open
Affiliation(s)
- Stefania Ondei
- School of Natural Sciences University of Tasmania Hobart Tasmania 7000 Australia
| | - Barry W. Brook
- School of Natural Sciences University of Tasmania Hobart Tasmania 7000 Australia
- Centre of Excellence for Australian Biodiversity and Heritage (CABAH) Hobart Tasmania 7000 Australia
| | - Jessie C. Buettel
- School of Natural Sciences University of Tasmania Hobart Tasmania 7000 Australia
- Centre of Excellence for Australian Biodiversity and Heritage (CABAH) Hobart Tasmania 7000 Australia
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31
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Brook BW, Buettel JC, Jarić I. A fast re‐sampling method for using reliability ratings of sightings with extinction‐date estimators. Ecology 2019; 100:e02787. [DOI: 10.1002/ecy.2787] [Citation(s) in RCA: 8] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.6] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/01/2018] [Revised: 05/17/2019] [Accepted: 06/12/2019] [Indexed: 11/10/2022]
Affiliation(s)
- Barry W. Brook
- School of Natural Sciences University of Tasmania Hobart Tasmania 7001 Australia
- ARC Centre of Excellence for Australian Biodiversity and Heritage University of Tasmania Hobart Tasmania Australia
| | - Jessie C. Buettel
- School of Natural Sciences University of Tasmania Hobart Tasmania 7001 Australia
- ARC Centre of Excellence for Australian Biodiversity and Heritage University of Tasmania Hobart Tasmania Australia
| | - Ivan Jarić
- Biology Centre of the Czech Academy of Sciences Institute of Hydrobiology České Budějovice Czech Republic
- Department of Ecosystem Biology Faculty of Science University of South Bohemia České Budějovice Czech Republic
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32
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Roy-Dufresne E, Lurgi M, Brown SC, Wells K, Cooke B, Mutze G, Peacock D, Cassey P, Berman D, Brook BW, Campbell S, Cox T, Daly J, Dunk I, Elsworth P, Fletcher D, Forsyth DM, Hocking G, Kovaliski J, Leane M, Low B, Kennedy M, Matthews J, McPhee S, Mellin C, Mooney T, Moseby K, Read J, Richardson BJ, Schneider K, Schwarz E, Sinclair R, Strive T, Triulcio F, West P, Saltré F, Fordham DA. The Australian National Rabbit Database: 50 yr of population monitoring of an invasive species. Ecology 2019; 100:e02750. [PMID: 31034589 DOI: 10.1002/ecy.2750] [Citation(s) in RCA: 7] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.4] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/15/2019] [Revised: 03/30/2019] [Accepted: 04/03/2019] [Indexed: 11/09/2022]
Abstract
With ongoing introductions into Australia since the 1700s, the European rabbit (Oryctolagus cuniculus) has become one of the most widely distributed and abundant vertebrate pests, adversely impacting Australia's biodiversity and agroeconomy. To understand the population and range dynamics of the species and its impacts better, occurrence and abundance data have been collected by researchers and citizens from sites covering a broad spectrum of climatic and environmental conditions in Australia. The lack of a common and accessible repository for these data has, however, limited their use in determining important spatiotemporal drivers of the structure and dynamics of the geographical range of rabbits in Australia. To meet this need, we created the Australian National Rabbit Database, which combines more than 50 yr of historical and contemporary survey data collected from throughout the range of the species in Australia. The survey data, obtained from a suite of complementary monitoring methods, were combined with high-resolution weather, climate, and environmental information, and an assessment of data quality. The database provides records of rabbit occurrence (689,265 records) and abundance (51,241 records, >120 distinct sites) suitable for identifying the spatiotemporal drivers of the rabbit's distribution and for determining spatial patterns of variation in its key life-history traits, including maximum rates of population growth. Because all data are georeferenced and date stamped, they can be coupled with information from other databases and spatial layers to explore the potential effects of rabbit occurrence and abundance on Australia's native wildlife and agricultural production. The Australian National Rabbit Database is an important tool for understanding and managing the European rabbit in its invasive range and its effects on native biodiversity and agricultural production. It also provides a valuable resource for addressing questions related to the biology, success, and impacts of invasive species more generally. No copyright or proprietary restrictions are associated with the use of this data set other than citation of this Data Paper.
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Affiliation(s)
- Emilie Roy-Dufresne
- The School of Biological Sciences, University of Adelaide, South Australia, 5005, Australia
| | - Miguel Lurgi
- The School of Biological Sciences, University of Adelaide, South Australia, 5005, Australia.,Centre for Biodiversity Theory and Modelling, Theoretical and Experimental Ecology Station, CNRS-Paul Sabatier University, 09200, Moulis, France
| | - Stuart C Brown
- The School of Biological Sciences, University of Adelaide, South Australia, 5005, Australia
| | - Konstans Wells
- The School of Biological Sciences, University of Adelaide, South Australia, 5005, Australia.,Department of Biosciences, Swansea University, SA2 8PP, Wales, UK
| | - Brian Cooke
- Institute for Applied Ecology, University of Canberra, Australian Capital Territory, 2617, Australia
| | - Greg Mutze
- Biosecurity SA, Department of Primary Industries and Regions South Australia, South Australia, 5064, Australia
| | - David Peacock
- Biosecurity SA, Department of Primary Industries and Regions South Australia, South Australia, 5064, Australia.,School of Animal and Veterinary Sciences, University of Adelaide, South Australia, 5005, Australia
| | - Phill Cassey
- The School of Biological Sciences, University of Adelaide, South Australia, 5005, Australia
| | - Dave Berman
- University of Southern Queensland, Queensland, 4350, Australia
| | - Barry W Brook
- The School of Biological Sciences, University of Adelaide, South Australia, 5005, Australia.,School of Natural Sciences, University of Tasmania, Private Bag 55, Tasmania, 7001, Australia
| | - Susan Campbell
- Department of Primary Industries and Regional Development, Washington, 6330, Australia
| | - Tarnya Cox
- Vertebrate Pest Research Unit, New South Wales Department of Primary Industries, New South Wales, 2800, Australia
| | - Joanne Daly
- CSIRO Agriculture and Food, Australian Capital Territory, 2601, Australia
| | - Iain Dunk
- Department of Environment, Water, and Natural Resources, South Australia, 5000, Australia
| | - Peter Elsworth
- Department of Agriculture and Fisheries, Biosecurity Queensland, Queensland, 4350, Australia
| | - Don Fletcher
- Department of Environment and Planning Directorate, Australian Capital Territory, 2602, Australia
| | - David M Forsyth
- Vertebrate Pest Research Unit, New South Wales Department of Primary Industries, New South Wales, 2800, Australia.,Department of Environment, Land, Water and Planning, Arthur Rylah Institute for Environmental Research, Victoria, 3084, Australia
| | - Greg Hocking
- Department of Primary Industries, Parks, Water and Environment, Tasmania, 7001, Australia.,Agricultural Technical Services P/L, South Australia, 5576, Australia
| | - John Kovaliski
- Biosecurity SA, Department of Primary Industries and Regions South Australia, South Australia, 5064, Australia
| | - Michael Leane
- Riverina Local Land Service, New South Wales, 2722, Australia
| | - Bill Low
- Low Ecological Services, Northern Territory, 0871, Australia
| | - Malcolm Kennedy
- Department of Primary Industries and Regional Development, Washington, 6151, Australia
| | - John Matthews
- Agricultural Services and Biosecurity Operations Division, Department of Economic Development, Jobs, Training and Resources, Victoria, 3300, Australia
| | - Steve McPhee
- Department of Environment, Land, Water and Planning, Arthur Rylah Institute for Environmental Research, Victoria, 3084, Australia
| | - Camille Mellin
- The School of Biological Sciences, University of Adelaide, South Australia, 5005, Australia.,Australian Institute of Marine Science, Queensland, 4810, Australia
| | - Trish Mooney
- Department of Environment, Water, and Natural Resources, South Australia, 5000, Australia
| | - Katherine Moseby
- Centre for Ecosystem Science, University of New South Wales, New South Wales, 2052, Australia
| | - John Read
- The School of Biological Sciences, University of Adelaide, South Australia, 5005, Australia
| | | | | | - Eric Schwarz
- Department of Primary Industries, Parks, Water and Environment, Tasmania, 7001, Australia
| | - Ronald Sinclair
- Biosecurity SA, Department of Primary Industries and Regions South Australia, South Australia, 5064, Australia
| | - Tanja Strive
- CSIRO Health and Biosecurity, Australian Capital Territory, 2601, Australia
| | - Frank Triulcio
- Department of Planning, Transport and Infrastructure, South Australia, 5000, Australia
| | - Peter West
- Vertebrate Pest Research Unit, New South Wales Department of Primary Industries, New South Wales, 2800, Australia
| | - Frederik Saltré
- The School of Biological Sciences, University of Adelaide, South Australia, 5005, Australia.,Global Ecology, College of Science and Engineering, Flinders University,, GPO Box 2100, South Australia, 5001, Australia
| | - Damien A Fordham
- The School of Biological Sciences, University of Adelaide, South Australia, 5005, Australia
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Fuller C, Ondei S, Brook BW, Buettel JC. First, do no harm: A systematic review of deforestation spillovers from protected areas. Glob Ecol Conserv 2019. [DOI: 10.1016/j.gecco.2019.e00591] [Citation(s) in RCA: 17] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.4] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 10/27/2022] Open
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Nguyen HKD, Fielding MW, Buettel JC, Brook BW. Habitat suitability, live abundance and their link to road mortality of Tasmanian wildlife. Wildl Res 2019. [DOI: 10.1071/wr18128] [Citation(s) in RCA: 6] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/23/2022]
Abstract
ContextTasmania has been called the roadkill capital of Australia. However, little is known about the population-level impact of vehicle mortality on native mammals in the island state.
AimsThe aims were to investigate the predictability of roadkill on a given route, based on models of species distribution and live animal abundance for three marsupial species in Tasmania – the Tasmanian pademelon (Thylogale billardierii), Bennett’s wallaby (Macropus rufogriseus) and the bare-nosed wombat (Vombatus ursinus) – and to assess the possibility of predicting the magnitude of state-wide road mortality based on live animal abundance.
MethodsRoad mortality of the three species was measured on eight 15-km road segments in south-eastern Tasmania, during 16 weeks over the period 2016–17. Climate suitability was predicted using state-wide geographical location records, using species distribution models, and counts of these species from 190 spotlight survey roads.
Key resultsThe Tasmanian pademelons were the most frequently killed animal encountered over the study period. Live abundance, predicted by fitting models to spotlight counts, did not correlate with this fatality rate for any species. However, the climate suitability index generated by the species distribution models was strongly predictive for wombat roadkill, and moderately so for pademelons.
ConclusionsAlthough distributional and wildlife abundance records are commonly available and well described by models based on climate, vegetation and land-use predictors, this approach to climate suitability modelling has limited predictability for roadkill counts on specific routes.
ImplicationsRoad-specific factors, such as characteristics of the road infrastructure, nearby habitats and behavioural traits, seem to be required to explain roadkill frequency. Determining their relative importance will require spatial analysis of roadkill locations.
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Buettel JC, Brook BW, Cole A, Dickey J, Flies EJ. Astro-ecology? Shifting the interdisciplinary collaboration paradigm. Ecol Evol 2018; 8:9586-9589. [PMID: 30386558 PMCID: PMC6202704 DOI: 10.1002/ece3.4455] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/07/2022] Open
Abstract
We present a case study whereby ecological research on fallen trees in forest plots was advanced by a collaboration with astronomers working on the vector fields of stars and gas, and we propose a framework by which such novel collaborations can progress.
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Affiliation(s)
- Jessie C Buettel
- School of Biological Sciences University of Tasmania Hobart Tasmania.,ARC Centre of Excellence for Australian Biodiversity and Heritage Sandy Bay Tasmania
| | - Barry W Brook
- School of Biological Sciences University of Tasmania Hobart Tasmania.,ARC Centre of Excellence for Australian Biodiversity and Heritage Sandy Bay Tasmania
| | - Andrew Cole
- School of Physical Sciences University of Tasmania Hobart Tasmania
| | - John Dickey
- School of Physical Sciences University of Tasmania Hobart Tasmania
| | - Emily J Flies
- School of Biological Sciences University of Tasmania Hobart Tasmania
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36
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Flies EJ, Brook BW, Blomqvist L, Buettel JC. Forecasting future global food demand: A systematic review and meta-analysis of model complexity. Environ Int 2018; 120:93-103. [PMID: 30075374 DOI: 10.1016/j.envint.2018.07.019] [Citation(s) in RCA: 6] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/02/2018] [Revised: 07/09/2018] [Accepted: 07/11/2018] [Indexed: 06/08/2023]
Abstract
Predicting future food demand is a critical step for formulating the agricultural, economic and conservation policies required to feed over 9 billion people by 2050 while doing minimal harm to the environment. However, published future food demand estimates range substantially, making it difficult to determine optimal policies. Here we present a systematic review of the food demand literature-including a meta-analysis of papers reporting average global food demand predictions-and test the effect of model complexity on predictions. We show that while estimates of future global kilocalorie demand have a broad range, they are not consistently dependent on model complexity or form. Indeed, time-series and simple income-based models often make similar predictions to integrated assessments (e.g., with expert opinions, future prices or climate influencing forecasts), despite having different underlying assumptions and mechanisms. However, reporting of model accuracy and uncertainty was uncommon, leading to difficulties in making evidence-based decisions about which forecasts to trust. We argue for improved model reporting and transparency to reduce this problem and improve the pace of development in this field.
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Affiliation(s)
- Emily J Flies
- School of Biological Sciences, University of Tasmania, Private Bag 55, Hobart 7001, Australia.
| | - Barry W Brook
- School of Biological Sciences, University of Tasmania, Private Bag 55, Hobart 7001, Australia; ARC Centre of Excellence for Australian Biodiversity and Heritage (CABAH), Australia
| | | | - Jessie C Buettel
- School of Biological Sciences, University of Tasmania, Private Bag 55, Hobart 7001, Australia; ARC Centre of Excellence for Australian Biodiversity and Heritage (CABAH), Australia
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Brook BW, Sleightholme SR, Campbell CR, Buettel JC. Deficiencies in estimating the extinction date of the thylacine with mixed certainty data. Conserv Biol 2018; 32:1195-1197. [PMID: 30067879 DOI: 10.1111/cobi.13186] [Citation(s) in RCA: 4] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/06/2018] [Revised: 02/16/2018] [Accepted: 03/02/2018] [Indexed: 06/08/2023]
Affiliation(s)
- Barry W Brook
- School of Natural Sciences and ARC Centre of Excellence for Australian Biodiversity and Heritage, University of Tasmania, Hobart, 7001, Tasmania, Australia
| | - Stephen R Sleightholme
- International Thylacine Specimen Database (ITSD), 26 Bitham Mill, Westbury, BA13 3DJ, Wiltshire, U.K
| | - Cameron R Campbell
- Thylacine Museum, 8707 Eagle Mountain Circle, Fort Worth, TX, 76135, U.S.A
| | - Jessie C Buettel
- School of Natural Sciences and ARC Centre of Excellence for Australian Biodiversity and Heritage, University of Tasmania, Hobart, 7001, Tasmania, Australia
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Haby NA, Delean S, Brook BW. Improving performance and transferability of small mammal species distribution models. T ROY SOC SOUTH AUST 2018. [DOI: 10.1080/03721426.2018.1513770] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 10/28/2022]
Affiliation(s)
- Nerissa A. Haby
- Centre for Freshwater Ecology, School of Life Sciences, La Trobe University, Wodonga, Australia
| | - Steven Delean
- School of Biological Sciences and the Environment Institute, University of Adelaide, Adelaide, Australia
| | - Barry W. Brook
- School of Natural Sciences and ARC Centre of Excellence for Australian Biodiversity and Heritage, University of Tasmania, Hobart, Australia
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Lunn TJ, Gerwin M, Buettel JC, Brook BW. Impact of intense disturbance on the structure and composition of wet-eucalypt forests: A case study from the Tasmanian 2016 wildfires. PLoS One 2018; 13:e0200905. [PMID: 30028860 PMCID: PMC6054383 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0200905] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/11/2017] [Accepted: 07/04/2018] [Indexed: 11/25/2022] Open
Abstract
Fire is a key process in eucalypt communities, exerting a strong influence on the composition, structure and functioning of forests. Much of the research on the fire response of temperate, wet-sclerophyll trees in Australia comes from Victoria, where the dominant eucalypt is Eucalyptus regnans. In contrast, central and northern Tasmanian forests, dominated by Eucalyptus delegatensis, are relatively understudied. There is a need to determine whether Tasmanian wet-sclerophyll forests, though the same forest type in name, are functionally different in floristics and response to fire. Here we document the forest community response to a natural wildfire event in Tasmania-using opportunistic before/after control/impact (BACI) data from pre-existing monitoring plots. Uniting pre- and post-fire floristic data, we quantified mortality and regeneration of eucalypt, acacia and other dominant tree species, and tree ferns, Dicksonia antarctica, in response to wildfire. We also evaluated the density of eucalypt and acacia seedling establishment between burnt and unburnt forests, and quantified faunal responses to fire. Despite moderate-to-high intensity burning in patches across the plot, mortality of eucalypts, acacias and tree ferns due to fire were low. By contrast, fire-sensitive rainforest species showed low survival, though were able to persist in unburnt refugia. Eucalypt and acacia seedling regeneration was high in the burnt plot, suggesting that E. delegatensis forests regenerate without stand-replacing fire events. This contrasts to Victorian E. regnans forests, whose persistence is dependent on high-severity stand-replacing events. We also found some group-specific avifaunal and invertebrate responses to the fire event, which are broadly reflective of responses documented in other Victorian-based studies. Our results have implications for Tasmanian wet-forest silvicultural practices, which are based on the principle of stand-replacement after fire. The broader relevance of this work to forest ecology is in demonstrating the serendipitous opportunities that can arise with baseline monitoring plots.
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Affiliation(s)
- Tamika J. Lunn
- School of Natural Sciences, ARC Centre of Excellence for Australian Biodiversity and Heritage, University of Tasmania, Sandy Bay, Tasmania, Australia
| | - Melissa Gerwin
- School of Natural Sciences, ARC Centre of Excellence for Australian Biodiversity and Heritage, University of Tasmania, Sandy Bay, Tasmania, Australia
| | - Jessie C. Buettel
- School of Natural Sciences, ARC Centre of Excellence for Australian Biodiversity and Heritage, University of Tasmania, Sandy Bay, Tasmania, Australia
| | - Barry W. Brook
- School of Natural Sciences, ARC Centre of Excellence for Australian Biodiversity and Heritage, University of Tasmania, Sandy Bay, Tasmania, Australia
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Wells K, Fordham DA, Brook BW, Cassey P, Cox T, O'Hara RB, Schwensow NI. Disentangling synergistic disease dynamics: Implications for the viral biocontrol of rabbits. J Anim Ecol 2018; 87:1418-1428. [DOI: 10.1111/1365-2656.12871] [Citation(s) in RCA: 8] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/29/2018] [Accepted: 05/14/2018] [Indexed: 12/15/2022]
Affiliation(s)
- Konstans Wells
- The Environment Institute and School of Biological Sciences The University of Adelaide Adelaide SA Australia
- Environmental Futures Research Institute Griffith University Brisbane QLD Australia
| | - Damien A. Fordham
- The Environment Institute and School of Biological Sciences The University of Adelaide Adelaide SA Australia
- Center for Macroecology, Evolution, and Climate National Museum of Denmark University of Copenhagen Copenhagen Denmark
| | - Barry W. Brook
- The Environment Institute and School of Biological Sciences The University of Adelaide Adelaide SA Australia
- School of Natural Sciences University of Tasmania Hobart TAS Australia
| | - Phillip Cassey
- The Environment Institute and School of Biological Sciences The University of Adelaide Adelaide SA Australia
| | - Tarnya Cox
- Vertebrate Pest Research Unit NSW Department Primary Industries Orange NSW Australia
| | - Robert B. O'Hara
- Department of Mathematical Sciences Norwegian University of Science and Technology Trondheim Norway
| | - Nina I. Schwensow
- The Environment Institute and School of Biological Sciences The University of Adelaide Adelaide SA Australia
- Institute of Evolutionary Ecology and Conservation Genomics University of Ulm Ulm Germany
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Buettel JC, Cole A, Dickey JM, Brook BW. Analyzing linear spatial features in ecology. Ecology 2018; 99:1490-1497. [PMID: 29570218 DOI: 10.1002/ecy.2215] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/29/2017] [Revised: 01/07/2018] [Accepted: 01/29/2018] [Indexed: 11/08/2022]
Abstract
The spatial analysis of dimensionless points (e.g., tree locations on a plot map) is common in ecology, for instance using point-process statistics to detect and compare patterns. However, the treatment of one-dimensional linear features (fiber processes) is rarely attempted. Here we appropriate the methods of vector sums and dot products, used regularly in fields like astrophysics, to analyze a data set of mapped linear features (logs) measured in 12 × 1-ha forest plots. For this demonstrative case study, we ask two deceptively simple questions: do trees tend to fall downhill, and if so, does slope gradient matter? Despite noisy data and many potential confounders, we show clearly that topography (slope direction and steepness) of forest plots does matter to treefall. More generally, these results underscore the value of mathematical methods of physics to problems in the spatial analysis of linear features, and the opportunities that interdisciplinary collaboration provides. This work provides scope for a variety of future ecological analyzes of fiber processes in space.
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Affiliation(s)
- Jessie C Buettel
- School of Biological Sciences and Australian Research Council Centre of Excellence for Australian Biodiversity and Heritage, University of Tasmania, Hobart, Tasmania, 7001, Australia
| | - Andrew Cole
- School of Physical Sciences, University of Tasmania, Sandy Bay, 7001, Tasmania, Australia
| | - John M Dickey
- School of Physical Sciences, University of Tasmania, Sandy Bay, 7001, Tasmania, Australia
| | - Barry W Brook
- School of Biological Sciences and Australian Research Council Centre of Excellence for Australian Biodiversity and Heritage, University of Tasmania, Hobart, Tasmania, 7001, Australia
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Fordham DA, Bertelsmeier C, Brook BW, Early R, Neto D, Brown SC, Ollier S, Araújo MB. How complex should models be? Comparing correlative and mechanistic range dynamics models. Glob Chang Biol 2018; 24:1357-1370. [PMID: 29152817 DOI: 10.1111/gcb.13935] [Citation(s) in RCA: 35] [Impact Index Per Article: 5.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/27/2016] [Accepted: 09/14/2017] [Indexed: 06/07/2023]
Abstract
Criticism has been levelled at climate-change-induced forecasts of species range shifts that do not account explicitly for complex population dynamics. The relative importance of such dynamics under climate change is, however, undetermined because direct tests comparing the performance of demographic models vs. simpler ecological niche models are still lacking owing to difficulties in evaluating forecasts using real-world data. We provide the first comparison of the skill of coupled ecological-niche-population models and ecological niche models in predicting documented shifts in the ranges of 20 British breeding bird species across a 40-year period. Forecasts from models calibrated with data centred on 1970 were evaluated using data centred on 2010. We found that more complex coupled ecological-niche-population models (that account for dispersal and metapopulation dynamics) tend to have higher predictive accuracy in forecasting species range shifts than structurally simpler models that only account for variation in climate. However, these better forecasts are achieved only if ecological responses to climate change are simulated without static snapshots of historic land use, taken at a single point in time. In contrast, including both static land use and dynamic climate variables in simpler ecological niche models improve forecasts of observed range shifts. Despite being less skilful at predicting range changes at the grid-cell level, ecological niche models do as well, or better, than more complex models at predicting the magnitude of relative change in range size. Therefore, ecological niche models can provide a reasonable first approximation of the magnitude of species' potential range shifts, especially when more detailed data are lacking on dispersal dynamics, demographic processes underpinning population performance, and change in land cover.
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Affiliation(s)
- Damien A Fordham
- The Environment Institute and School of Biological Sciences, The University of Adelaide, Adelaide, SA, Australia
| | - Cleo Bertelsmeier
- The Environment Institute and School of Biological Sciences, The University of Adelaide, Adelaide, SA, Australia
- Department of Ecology & Evolution, Univ. Lausanne, Lausanne, Switzerland
| | - Barry W Brook
- School of Biological Sciences, University of Tasmania, Hobart, TAS, Australia
| | - Regan Early
- Centre for Ecology and Conservation, University of Exeter, Cornwall Campus, Penryn, Cornwall, UK
| | - Dora Neto
- InBio/CIBIO, University of Évora, Largo dos Colegiais, Évora, Portugal
| | - Stuart C Brown
- The Environment Institute and School of Biological Sciences, The University of Adelaide, Adelaide, SA, Australia
| | | | - Miguel B Araújo
- InBio/CIBIO, University of Évora, Largo dos Colegiais, Évora, Portugal
- National Museum of Natural Sciences, CSIC, Madrid, Spain
- Center for Macroecology, Evolution and Climate, Natural History Museum of Denmark, University of Copenhagen, Copenhagen, Denmark
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Abstract
Extinction is a key feature of the evolutionary history of life, and assessments of extinction risk are essential for the effective protection of biodiversity. The goal in assembling this special issue of Biology Letters was to highlight problems and questions at the research frontier of extinction biology, with an emphasis on recent developments in the methodology of inferring the patterns and processes of extinction from a background of often noisy and sparse data. In selecting topics, we sought to illustrate how extinction is not simply a self-evident phenomenon, but the subject of a dynamic and quantitatively rigorous field of natural science, with practical applications to conservation.
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Affiliation(s)
- Barry W Brook
- School of Biological Sciences, University of Tasmania, Private Bag 55, Hobart 7001, Australia
| | - John Alroy
- Department of Biological Sciences, Macquarie University, New South Wales 2109, Australia
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Fordham DA, Brook BW, Hoskin CJ, Pressey RL, VanDerWal J, Williams SE. Extinction debt from climate change for frogs in the wet tropics. Biol Lett 2017; 12:rsbl.2016.0236. [PMID: 27729484 DOI: 10.1098/rsbl.2016.0236] [Citation(s) in RCA: 13] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.9] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/22/2016] [Accepted: 09/20/2016] [Indexed: 11/12/2022] Open
Abstract
The effect of twenty-first-century climate change on biodiversity is commonly forecast based on modelled shifts in species ranges, linked to habitat suitability. These projections have been coupled with species-area relationships (SAR) to infer extinction rates indirectly as a result of the loss of climatically suitable areas and associated habitat. This approach does not model population dynamics explicitly, and so accepts that extinctions might occur after substantial (but unknown) delays-an extinction debt. Here we explicitly couple bioclimatic envelope models of climate and habitat suitability with generic life-history models for 24 species of frogs found in the Australian Wet Tropics (AWT). We show that (i) as many as four species of frogs face imminent extinction by 2080, due primarily to climate change; (ii) three frogs face delayed extinctions; and (iii) this extinction debt will take at least a century to be realized in full. Furthermore, we find congruence between forecast rates of extinction using SARs, and demographic models with an extinction lag of 120 years. We conclude that SAR approaches can provide useful advice to conservation on climate change impacts, provided there is a good understanding of the time lags over which delayed extinctions are likely to occur.
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Affiliation(s)
- Damien A Fordham
- The Environment Institute and School of Biological Sciences, University of Adelaide, South Australia 5005, Australia
| | - Barry W Brook
- School of Biological Sciences, University of Tasmania, Private Bag 55, Hobart, TAS, 7001, Australia
| | - Conrad J Hoskin
- Centre for Tropical Biodiversity and Climate Change, College of Marine and Environmental Sciences, James Cook University, Townsville, QLD 4811, Australia
| | - Robert L Pressey
- Australian Research Council Centre of Excellence for Coral Reef Studies, James Cook University, Townsville, QLD 4811, Australia
| | - Jeremy VanDerWal
- Centre for Tropical Biodiversity and Climate Change, College of Marine and Environmental Sciences, James Cook University, Townsville, QLD 4811, Australia
| | - Stephen E Williams
- Centre for Tropical Biodiversity and Climate Change, College of Marine and Environmental Sciences, James Cook University, Townsville, QLD 4811, Australia
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Johnson CN, Balmford A, Brook BW, Buettel JC, Galetti M, Guangchun L, Wilmshurst JM. Biodiversity losses and conservation responses in the Anthropocene. Science 2017; 356:270-275. [DOI: 10.1126/science.aam9317] [Citation(s) in RCA: 405] [Impact Index Per Article: 57.9] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 12/28/2022]
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Johnson CN, Alroy J, Beeton NJ, Bird MI, Brook BW, Cooper A, Gillespie R, Herrando-Pérez S, Jacobs Z, Miller GH, Prideaux GJ, Roberts RG, Rodríguez-Rey M, Saltré F, Turney CSM, Bradshaw CJA. What caused extinction of the Pleistocene megafauna of Sahul? Proc Biol Sci 2017; 283:rspb.2015.2399. [PMID: 26865301 DOI: 10.1098/rspb.2015.2399] [Citation(s) in RCA: 35] [Impact Index Per Article: 5.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/12/2022] Open
Abstract
During the Pleistocene, Australia and New Guinea supported a rich assemblage of large vertebrates. Why these animals disappeared has been debated for more than a century and remains controversial. Previous synthetic reviews of this problem have typically focused heavily on particular types of evidence, such as the dating of extinction and human arrival, and have frequently ignored uncertainties and biases that can lead to misinterpretation of this evidence. Here, we review diverse evidence bearing on this issue and conclude that, although many knowledge gaps remain, multiple independent lines of evidence point to direct human impact as the most likely cause of extinction.
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Affiliation(s)
- C N Johnson
- School of Biological Sciences, University of Tasmania, Private Bag 55, Hobart, Tasmania 7001, Australia
| | - J Alroy
- Department of Biological Sciences, Macquarie University, New South Wales 2109, Australia
| | - N J Beeton
- School of Biological Sciences, University of Tasmania, Private Bag 55, Hobart, Tasmania 7001, Australia
| | - M I Bird
- Centre for Tropical Environmental and Sustainability Studies, College of Science Technology and Engineering, James Cook University, Cairns, Queensland 4878, Australia
| | - B W Brook
- School of Biological Sciences, University of Tasmania, Private Bag 55, Hobart, Tasmania 7001, Australia
| | - A Cooper
- Australian Centre for Ancient DNA, School of Biological Sciences, The University of Adelaide, Adelaide, South Australia 5005, Australia
| | - R Gillespie
- Centre for Archaeological Science, School of Earth and Environmental Sciences, University of Wollongong, New South Wales 2522, Australia Archaeology and Natural History, School of Culture, History and Language, Australian National University, Canberra, Australian Capital Territory 0200, Australia
| | - S Herrando-Pérez
- The Environment Institute, School of Biological Sciences, The University of Adelaide, Adelaide, South Australia 5005, Australia Department of Biogeography and Global Change, National Museum of Natural Sciences-Spanish Research Council (CSIC) c/ José Gutiérrez Abascal 2, 28006 Madrid, Spain
| | - Z Jacobs
- Centre for Archaeological Science, School of Earth and Environmental Sciences, University of Wollongong, New South Wales 2522, Australia
| | - G H Miller
- Institute of Arctic and Alpine Research, Geological Sciences, University of Colorado, Boulder, CO 80309-0450, USA Environment and Agriculture, Curtin University, Perth, Western Australia 6102, Australia
| | - G J Prideaux
- School of Biological Sciences, Flinders University, Bedford Park, South Australia 5042, Australia
| | - R G Roberts
- Centre for Archaeological Science, School of Earth and Environmental Sciences, University of Wollongong, New South Wales 2522, Australia
| | - M Rodríguez-Rey
- The Environment Institute, School of Biological Sciences, The University of Adelaide, Adelaide, South Australia 5005, Australia
| | - F Saltré
- The Environment Institute, School of Biological Sciences, The University of Adelaide, Adelaide, South Australia 5005, Australia
| | - C S M Turney
- Climate Change Research Centre, University of New South Wales, Sydney, New South Wales 2052, Australia
| | - C J A Bradshaw
- The Environment Institute, School of Biological Sciences, The University of Adelaide, Adelaide, South Australia 5005, Australia
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48
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Affiliation(s)
- Barry W. Brook
- School of Biological Sciences University of Tasmania Private Bag 55 Hobart 7001 Australia
| | - Jessie C. Buettel
- School of Biological Sciences University of Tasmania Private Bag 55 Hobart 7001 Australia
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49
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Affiliation(s)
- Jessie C. Buettel
- School of Biological Sciences; University of Tasmania; Private Bag 55 Hobart 7001 Australia
| | - Barry W. Brook
- School of Biological Sciences; University of Tasmania; Private Bag 55 Hobart 7001 Australia
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Wells K, Cassey P, Sinclair RG, Mutze GJ, Peacock DE, Lacy RC, Cooke BD, O'Hara RB, Brook BW, Fordham DA. Targeting season and age for optimizing control of invasive rabbits. J Wildl Manage 2016. [DOI: 10.1002/jwmg.21093] [Citation(s) in RCA: 5] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.6] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/08/2022]
Affiliation(s)
- Konstans Wells
- The Environment Institute and School of Biological SciencesThe University of AdelaideAdelaideSA5005Australia
- Environmental Futures Research InstituteGriffith UniversityBrisbaneQLD4111Australia
| | - Phillip Cassey
- The Environment Institute and School of Biological SciencesThe University of AdelaideAdelaideSA5005Australia
| | - Ron G. Sinclair
- Natural Resources Management Biosecurity UnitBiosecurity SAAdelaideAustralia
| | - Greg J. Mutze
- Natural Resources Management Biosecurity UnitBiosecurity SAAdelaideAustralia
| | - David E. Peacock
- Natural Resources Management Biosecurity UnitBiosecurity SAAdelaideAustralia
| | | | - Brian D. Cooke
- Institute for Applied EcologyUniversity of CanberraCanberraACT2601Australia
| | - Robert B. O'Hara
- Biodiversity and Climate Research Centre (BIK‐F)Senckenberganlage 25, 60325 Frankfurt am MainGermany
| | - Barry W. Brook
- School of Biological SciencesUniversity of TasmaniaHobartTAS7001Australia
| | - Damien A. Fordham
- The Environment Institute and School of Biological SciencesThe University of AdelaideAdelaideSA5005Australia
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