Response of mountainPicea abiesforests to stand-replacing bark beetle outbreaks: neighbourhood effects lead to self-replacement

Carbon and nutrient pools and fluxes in unmanaged mountain Norway spruce forests, and losses after natural tree dieback

Forest areas infected by insects are increasing in Europe and North America due to accelerating climate change. A 2000-2020 mass budget study on major elements (C, N, P, Ca, Mg, K) in the atmosphere-plant-soil-water systems of two unmanaged catchments enabled us to evaluate changes in pools and fluxes related to tree dieback and long-term accumulation/losses during the post-glacial period. A bark-beetle outbreak killed >75 % of all trees in a mature mountain spruce forest in one catchment and all dead biomass was left on site. A similar forest in a nearby catchment was only marginally affected. We observed that: (1) the long-term (millennial) C and N accumulation in soils averaged 10-22 and 0.5-1.1 kg ha-1 yr-1, respectively, while losses of Ca, Mg, and K from soils ranged from 0.1 to 2.6 kg ha-1 yr-1. (2) Only <0.8 % and <1.5 % of the respective total C and N fluxes entering the soil annually from vegetation were permanently stored in soils. (3) The post-disturbance decomposition of dead tree biomass reduced vegetation element pools from 27 % (C) to 73 % (P) between 2004 and 2019. (4) Tree dieback decreased net atmospheric element inputs to the impacted catchment, and increased the leaching of all elements and gaseous losses of C (∼2.3 t ha-1 yr-1) and N (∼14 kg ha-1 yr-1). The disturbed catchment became a net C source, but ∼50 % of the N released from dead biomass accumulated in soils. (5) Despite the severe forest disturbance, the dissolved losses of Ca and Mg represented 52-58 % of their leaching from intact stands during the peaking atmospheric acidification from 1970 to 1990. (6) Disturbance-related net leaching of P, Ca, Mg, and K were 4, 69, 16, and 114 kg ha-1, respectively, which represented 7-38 % of the losses potentially related to sanitary logging and subsequent removal of the aboveground tree biomass.

Spatial variation in red deer density in a transboundary forest ecosystem

Forests in Europe are exposed to increasingly frequent and severe disturbances. The resulting changes in the structure and composition of forests can have profound consequences for the wildlife inhabiting them. Moreover, wildlife populations in Europe are often subjected to differential management regimes as they regularly extend across multiple national and administrative borders. The red deer Cervus elaphus population in the Bohemian Forest Ecosystem, straddling the Czech-German border, has experienced forest disturbances, primarily caused by windfalls and bark beetle Ips typographus outbreaks during the past decades. To adapt local management strategies to the changing environmental conditions and to coordinate them across the international border, reliable estimates of red deer density and abundance are highly sought-after by policymakers, wildlife managers, and stakeholders. Covering a 1081-km² study area, we conducted a transnational non-invasive DNA sampling study in 2018 that yielded 1578 genotyped DNA samples from 1120 individual red deer. Using spatial capture-recapture models, we estimated total and jurisdiction-specific abundance of red deer throughout the ecosystem and quantified the role of forest disturbance and differential management strategies in shaping spatial heterogeneity in red deer density. We hypothesised that (a) forest disturbances provide favourable habitat conditions (e.g., forage and cover), and (b) contrasting red deer management regimes in different jurisdictions create a differential risk landscape, ultimately shaping density distributions. Overall, we estimated that 2851 red deer (95% Credible Interval = 2609-3119) resided in the study area during the sampling period, with a relatively even overall sex ratio (1406 females, 95% CI = 1229-1612 and 1445 males, 95% CI = 1288-1626). The average red deer density was higher in Czechia (3.5 km^-2, 95% CI = 1.2-12.3) compared to Germany (2 km^-2, 95% CI = 0.2-11). The effect of forest disturbances on red deer density was context-dependent. Forest disturbances had a positive effect on red deer density at higher elevations and a negative effect at lower elevations, which could be explained by partial migration and its drivers in this population. Density of red deer was generally higher in management units where hunting is prohibited. In addition, we found that sex ratios differed between administrative units and were more balanced in the non-intervention zones. Our results show that the effect of forest disturbances on wild ungulates is modulated by additional factors, such as elevation and ungulate management practices. Overall density patterns and sex ratios suggested strong gradients in density between administrative units. With climate change increasing the severity and frequency of forest disturbances, population-level monitoring and management are becoming increasingly important, especially for wide-ranging species as both wildlife and global change transcend administrative boundaries.

Post-disturbance reorganization of forest ecosystems in a changing world

Forest ecosystems are strongly impacted by continuing climate change and increasing disturbance activity, but how forest dynamics will respond remains highly uncertain. Here, we argue that a short time window after disturbance (i.e., a discrete event that disrupts prevailing ecosystem structure and composition and releases resources) is pivotal for future forest development. Trees that establish during this reorganization phase can shape forest structure and composition for centuries, providing operational early indications of forest change. While forest change has been fruitfully studied through a lens of resilience, profound ecological changes can be masked by a resilience versus regime shift dichotomy. We present a framework for characterizing the full spectrum of change after disturbance, analyzing forest reorganization along dimensions of forest structure (number, size, and spatial arrangement of trees) and composition (identity and diversity of tree species). We propose four major pathways through which forest cover can persist but reorganize following disturbance: resilience (no change in structure and composition), restructuring (structure changes but composition does not), reassembly (composition changes but structure does not), and replacement (structure and composition both change). Regime shifts occur when vegetation structure and composition are altered so profoundly that the emerging trajectory leads to nonforest. We identify fundamental processes underpinning forest reorganization which, if disrupted, deflect ecosystems away from resilience. To understand and predict forest reorganization, assessing these processes and the traits modulating them is crucial. A new wave of experiments, measurements, and models emphasizing the reorganization phase will further the capacity to anticipate future forest dynamics.

Do bark beetle outbreaks amplify or dampen future bark beetle disturbances in Central Europe?

Bark beetle outbreaks have intensified in many forests around the globe in recent years. Yet, the legacy of these disturbances for future forest development remains unclear. Bark beetle disturbances are expected to increase further because of climate change. Consequently, feedbacks within the disturbance regime are of growing interest, for example, whether bark beetle outbreaks are amplifying future bark beetle activity (through the initiation of an even-aged cohort of trees) or dampening it (through increased structural and compositional diversity).We studied bark beetle-vegetation-climate interactions in the Bavarian Forest National Park (Germany), an area characterised by unprecedented bark beetle activity in the recent past. We simulated the effect of future bark beetle outbreaks on forest structure and composition and analysed how disturbance-mediated forest dynamics influence future bark beetle activity under different scenarios of climate change. We used process-based simulation modelling in combination with machine learning to disentangle the long-term interactions between vegetation, climate and bark beetles at the landscape scale.Disturbances by the European spruce bark beetle were strongly amplified by climate change, increasing between 59% and 221% compared to reference climate. Bark beetle outbreaks reduced the dominance of Norway spruce (Picea abies (L.) Karst.) on the landscape, increasing compositional diversity. Disturbances decreased structural diversity within stands (α diversity) and increased structural diversity between stands (β diversity). Overall, disturbance-mediated changes in forest structure and composition dampened future disturbance activity (a reduction of up to -67%), but were not able to fully compensate for the amplifying effect of climate change. Synthesis. Our findings indicate that the recent disturbance episode at the Bavarian Forest National Park was caused by a convergence of highly susceptible forest structures with climatic conditions favourable for bark beetle outbreaks. While future climate is increasingly conducive to massive outbreaks, the emerging landscape structure is less and less likely to support them. This study improves our understanding of the long-term legacies of ongoing bark beetle disturbances in Central Europe. It indicates that increased diversity provides an important dampening feedback, and suggests that preventing disturbances or homogenizing post-disturbance forests could elevate the future susceptibility to large-scale bark beetle outbreaks.

Changes in microclimate and hydrology in an unmanaged mountain forest catchment after insect-induced tree dieback

Hydrological and microclimatic changes after insect-induced tree dieback were evaluated in an unmanaged central European mountain (Plešné, PL) forest and compared to climate-related changes in a similar, but almost intact (Čertovo, CT) control forest during two decades. From 2004 to 2008, 93% of Norway spruce trees were killed by a bark beetle outbreak, and the entire PL area was left to subsequent natural development. We observed that (1) climate-related increases in daily mean air temperature (2 m above ground) were 1.6 and 0.5 °C on an annual and growing season basis, respectively, and an increase in daily mean soil temperature (5 cm below ground) was 0.9 °C during growing seasons at the CT control from 2004 to 2017; (2) daily mean soil and air temperatures increased by 0.7-1.2 °C on average more at the disturbed PL plots than in the healthy forest; (3) water input to soils increased by 20% but decreased by 17% at elevations of 1122 and 1334 m, respectively, due to decreased occult deposition to, and evaporation from, canopies after tree dieback; (4) soil moisture was 5% higher on average (but up to 17% higher in dry summer months) in the upper PL soil horizons for 5-6 years following the tree dieback; (5) run-off from the PL forest ~6% (~70 mm yr^-1) increased relatively to the CT forest (but without extreme peak flows and erosion events) after tree dieback due to the ceased transpiration of dead trees and elevated water input to soils; and (6) relative air humidity was 4% lower on average at disturbed plots than beneath living trees. The rapid tree regeneration during the decade following tree dieback resulted in a complete recovery in soil moisture, a slow recovery of discharge and air humidity, but a still insignificant recovery in air and soil temperatures.

Large-Scale Mapping of Tree Species and Dead Trees in Šumava National Park and Bavarian Forest National Park Using Lidar and Multispectral Imagery

Knowledge of forest structures—and of dead wood in particular—is fundamental to understanding, managing, and preserving the biodiversity of our forests. Lidar is a valuable technology for the area-wide mapping of trees in 3D because of its capability to penetrate vegetation. In essence, this technique enables the detection of single trees and their properties in all forest layers. This paper highlights a successful mapping of tree species—subdivided into conifers and broadleaf trees—and standing dead wood in a large forest 924 km2 in size. As a novelty, we calibrate the critical stopping criterion of the tree segmentation based on a normalized cut with regard to coniferous and broadleaf trees. The experiments were conducted in Šumava National Park and Bavarian Forest National Park. For both parks, lidar data were acquired at a point density of 55 points/m2. Aerial multispectral imagery was captured for Šumava National Park at a ground sample distance (GSD) of 17 cm and for Bavarian Forest National Park at 9.5 cm GSD. Classification of the two tree groups and standing dead wood—located in areas of pest infestation—is based on a diverse set of features (geometric, intensity-based, 3D shape contexts, multispectral-based) and well-known classifiers (Random forest and logistic regression). We show that the effect of under- and oversegmentation can be reduced by the modified normalized cut segmentation, thereby improving the precision by 13%. Conifers, broadleaf trees, and standing dead trees are classified with overall accuracies better than 90%. All in all, this experiment demonstrates the feasibility of large-scale and high-accuracy mapping of single conifers, broadleaf trees, and standing dead trees using lidar and aerial imagery.

From canopy to seed: Loss of snow drives directional changes in forest composition

Climate change is altering the conditions for tree recruitment, growth, and survival, and impacting forest community composition. Across southeast Alaska, USA, and British Columbia, Canada, Callitropsis nootkatensis (Alaska yellow-cedar) is experiencing extensive climate change-induced canopy mortality due to fine-root death during soil freezing events following warmer winters and the loss of insulating snowpack. Here, we examine the effects of ongoing, climate-driven canopy mortality on forest community composition and identify potential shifts in stand trajectories due to the loss of a single canopy species. We sampled canopy and regenerating forest communities across the extent of C. nootkatensis decline in southeast Alaska to quantify the effects of climate, community, and stand-level drivers on C. nootkatensis canopy mortality and regeneration as well as postdecline regenerating community composition. Across the plot network, C. nootkatensis exhibited significantly higher mortality than co-occurring conifers across all size classes and locations. Regenerating community composition was highly variable but closely related to the severity of C. nootkatensis mortality. Callitropsis nootkatensis canopy mortality was correlated with winter temperatures and precipitation as well as local soil drainage, with regenerating community composition and C. nootkatensis regeneration abundances best explained by available seed source. In areas of high C. nootkatensis mortality, C. nootkatensis regeneration was low and replaced by Tsuga. Our study suggests that climate-induced forest mortality is driving alternate successional pathways in forests where C. nootkatensis was once a major component. These pathways are likely to lead to long-term shifts in forest community composition and stand dynamics. Our analysis fills a critical knowledge gap on forest ecosystem response and rearrangement following the climate-driven decline of a single species, providing new insight into stand dynamics in a changing climate. As tree species across the globe are increasingly stressed by climate change-induced alteration of suitable habitat, identifying the autecological factors contributing to successful regeneration, or lack thereof, will provide key insight into forest resilience and persistence on the landscape.

Forest structure following natural disturbances and early succession provides habitat for two avian flagship species, capercaillie (Tetrao urogallus) and hazel grouse (Tetrastes bonasia)

Boreal and mountainous forests are a primary focus of conservation efforts and are naturally prone to large-scale disturbances, such as outbreaks of bark beetles. Affected stands are characterised by biological legacies which persist through the disturbance and subsequent succession. The lack of long-term monitoring data on post-disturbance forest structure precludes understanding of the complex pathways by which natural disturbances affect forest structure and subsequently species presence. We analysed the response of capercaillie (Tetrao urogallus) and hazel grouse (Tetrastes bonasia) to bark beetle infestations. We combined high-resolution airborne light detection and ranging (LiDAR) with a 23-year time series of aerial photography to quantify present-day forest structure and stand disturbance history. Species presence was assessed by collecting droppings of hazel grouse and capercaillie in a citizen science project. Structural equation models showed that the probability of hazel grouse presence increased with increasing disturbance, and the probability of both hazel grouse and capercaillie presence increased with succession. Indirect effects of bark beetle infestations, such as a reduced abundance of deciduous trees and an enhanced herb layer cover, were positively associated with capercaillie presence. Decreasing canopy cover increased the probability of hazel grouse presence. The high temporal and spatial heterogeneity of bark beetle infestations created forest structures that meet the contrasting habitat requirements of both, capercaillie and hazel grouse. This heterogeneity resulted from biological legacies such as decomposing snags, and the simultaneous regrowth of natural regeneration. A benign-neglect strategy towards bark beetle infestations could hence foster capercaillie and hazel grouse in mountainous forests.

Quantitative Palynology Informing Conservation Ecology in the Bohemian/Bavarian Forests of Central Europe

In 1927, the first pollen diagram was published from the Bohemian/Bavarian Forest region of Central Europe, providing one of the first qualitative views of the long-term vegetation development in the region. Since then significant methodological advances in quantitative approaches such as pollen influx and pollen-based vegetation models (e.g., Landscape Reconstruction Algorithm, LRA) have contributed to enhance our understanding of temporal and spatial ecology. These types of quantitative reconstructions are fundamental for conservation and restoration ecology because they provide long-term perspectives on ecosystem functioning. In the Bohemian/Bavarian Forests, forest managers have a goal to restore the original forest composition at mid-elevation forests, yet they rely on natural potential vegetation maps that do not take into account long-term vegetation dynamics. Here we reconstruct the Holocene history of forest composition and discuss the implications the LRA has for regional forest management and conservation. Two newly analyzed pollen records from Prášilské jezero and Rachelsee were compared to 10 regional peat bogs/mires and two other regional lakes to reconstruct total land-cover abundance at both the regional- and local-scales. The results demonstrate that spruce has been the dominant canopy cover across the region for the past 9,000 years at both high- (>900 m) and mid-elevations (>700-900 m). At the regional-scale inferred from lake records, spruce has comprised an average of ~50% of the total forest canopy; whereas at the more local-scale at mid-elevations, spruce formed ~59%. Beech established ~6,000 cal. years BP while fir established later around 5,500 cal. years BP. Beech and fir growing at mid-elevations reached a maximum land-cover abundance of 24% and 13% roughly 1,000 years ago. Over the past 500 years spruce has comprised ~47% land-cover, while beech and fir comprised ~8% and <5% at mid-elevations. This approach argues for the "natural" development of spruce and fir locally in zones where the paleoecology indicates the persistence of these species for millennia. Contrasting local and regional reconstructions of forest canopy cover points to a patchwork mosaic with local variability in the dominant taxa. Incorporation of paleoecological data in dialogues about biodiversity and ecosystem management is an approach that has wider utility.

The historical disturbance regime of mountain Norway spruce forests in the Western Carpathians and its influence on current forest structure and composition

In order to gauge ongoing and future changes to disturbance regimes, it is necessary to establish a solid baseline of historic disturbance patterns against which to evaluate these changes. Further, understanding how forest structure and composition respond to variation in past disturbances may provide insight into future resilience to climate-driven alterations of disturbance regimes. We established 184 plots (mostly 1000 m²) in 14 primary mountain Norway spruce forests in the Western Carpathians. On each plot we surveyed live and dead trees and regeneration, and cored around 25 canopy trees. Disturbance history was reconstructed by examining individual tree growth trends. The study plots were further aggregated into five groups based on disturbance history (severity and timing) to evaluate and explain its influence on forest structure. These ecosystems are characterized by a mixed severity disturbance regime with high spatiotemporal variability in severity and frequency. However, periods of synchrony in disturbance activity were also found. Specifically, a peak of canopy disturbance was found for the mid-19th century across the region (about 60% of trees established), with the most important periods of disturbance in the 1820s and from the 1840s to the 1870s. Current stand size and age structure were strongly influenced by past disturbance activity. In contrast, past disturbances did not have a significant effect on current tree density, the amount of coarse woody debris, and regeneration. High mean densities of regeneration with height >50 cm (about 1400 individuals per ha) were observed. Extensive high severity disturbances have recently affected Central European forests, spurring a discussion about the causes and consequences. We found some evidence that forests in the Western Carpathians were predisposed to recent severe disturbance events as a result of synchronized past disturbance activity, which partly homogenized size and age structure and made recent stands more vulnerable to bark beetle outbreak. Our data suggest that these events are still part of the range of natural variability. The finding that regeneration density and volume of coarse woody debris were not influenced by past disturbance illustrates that vastly different past disturbance histories are not likely to change the future trajectories of these forests. These ecosystems currently have high ecological resilience to disturbance. In conclusion, we suggest that management should recognize disturbances as a natural part of ecosystem dynamics in the mountain forests of Central Europe, account for their stochastic occurrence in management planning, and mimic their patterns to foster biodiversity in forest landscapes.

A walk on the wild side: Disturbance dynamics and the conservation and management of European mountain forest ecosystems

Mountain forests are among the most important ecosystems in Europe as they support numerous ecological, hydrological, climatic, social, and economic functions. They are unique relatively natural ecosystems consisting of long-lived species in an otherwise densely populated human landscape. Despite this, centuries of intensive forest management in many of these forests have eclipsed evidence of natural processes, especially the role of disturbances in long-term forest dynamics. Recent trends of land abandonment and establishment of protected forests have coincided with a growing interest in managing forests in more natural states. At the same time, the importance of past disturbances highlighted in an emerging body of literature, and recent increasing disturbances due to climate change are challenging long-held views of dynamics in these ecosystems. Here, we synthesize aspects of this Special Issue on the ecology of mountain forest ecosystems in Europe in the context of broader discussions in the field, to present a new perspective on these ecosystems and their natural disturbance regimes. Most mountain forests in Europe, for which long-term data are available, show a strong and long-term effect of not only human land use but also of natural disturbances that vary by orders of magnitude in size and frequency. Although these disturbances may kill many trees, the forests themselves have not been threatened. The relative importance of natural disturbances, land use, and climate change for ecosystem dynamics varies across space and time. Across the continent, changing climate and land use are altering forest cover, forest structure, tree demography, and natural disturbances, including fires, insect outbreaks, avalanches, and wind disturbances. Projected continued increases in forest area and biomass along with continued warming are likely to further promote forest disturbances. Episodic disturbances may foster ecosystem adaptation to the effects of ongoing and future climatic change. Increasing disturbances, along with trends of less intense land use, will promote further increases in coarse woody debris, with cascading positive effects on biodiversity, edaphic conditions, biogeochemical cycles, and increased heterogeneity across a range of spatial scales. Together, this may translate to disturbance-mediated resilience of forest landscapes and increased biodiversity, as long as climate and disturbance regimes remain within the tolerance of relevant species. Understanding ecological variability, even imperfectly, is integral to anticipating vulnerabilities and promoting ecological resilience, especially under growing uncertainty. Allowing some forests to be shaped by natural processes may be congruent with multiple goals of forest management, even in densely settled and developed countries.

Life and death of Picea abies after bark-beetle outbreak: ecological processes driving seedling recruitment

The severity and spatial extent of bark-beetle outbreaks substantially increased in recent decades worldwide. The ongoing controversy about natural forest recovery after these outbreaks highlights the need for individual-based long-term studies, which disentangle processes driving forest regeneration. However, such studies have been lacking. To fill this gap, we followed the fates of 2,552 individual seedlings for 12 years after a large-scale bark-beetle outbreak that caused complete canopy dieback in mountain Norway spruce (Picea abies) forests in southeast Germany. We explore the contribution of advance, disturbance-related, and post-disturbance regeneration to forest recovery. Most seedlings originated directly within the three-year dieback of canopy trees induced by bark-beetle outbreak. After complete canopy dieback, the establishment of new seedlings was minimal. Surprisingly, advance regeneration formed only a minor part of all regeneration. However, because it had the highest survival rate, its importance increased over time. The most important factor influencing the survival of seedlings after disturbance was their height. Survival was further modified by microsite: seedlings established on dead wood survived best, whereas almost all seedlings surrounded by graminoids died. For 5 cm tall seedlings, annual mortality ranged from 20 to 50% according to the rooting microsite. However, for seedlings taller than 50 cm, annual mortality was below 5% at all microsites. While microsite modified seedling mortality, it did not affect seedling height growth. A model of regeneration dynamics based on short-term observations accurately predicts regeneration height growth, but substantially underestimates mortality rate, thus predicting more surviving seedlings than were observed. We found that P. abies forests were able to regenerate naturally even after severe bark-beetle outbreaks owing to advance and particularly disturbance-related regeneration. This, together with microsite-specific mortality, yields structurally and spatially diverse forests. Our study thus highlights the so far unrecognized importance of disturbance-related regeneration for stand recovery after bark-beetle outbreaks.