Age, period and cohort effects on body mass index in New Zealand, 1997-2038

The impact of heat treatment of bovine milk on gastric emptying and nutrient appearance in peripheral circulation in healthy females: a randomized controlled trial comparing pasteurized and ultra-high temperature milk

BACKGROUND

Heat treatments of dairy, including pasteurization and ultra-high temperature (UHT) processing, alter milk macromolecular structures, and ultimately affect digestion. In vitro, animal, and human studies show faster nutrient release or circulating appearance after consuming UHT milk (UHT-M) compared with pasteurized milk (PAST-M), with a faster gastric emptying (GE) rate proposed as a possible mechanism.

OBJECTIVES

To investigate the impact of milk heat treatment on GE as a mechanism of faster nutrient appearance in blood. We hypothesized that GE and circulating nutrient delivery following consumption would be faster for UHT-M than PAST-M.

METHODS

In this double-blind randomized controlled cross-over trial, healthy female (n = 20; 27.3 ± 1.4 y, mean ± SD) habitual dairy consumers, consumed 500 mL of either homogenized bovine UHT-M or PAST-M (1340 compared with 1320 kJ). Gastric content volume (GCV) emptying half-time (T50) was assessed over 3 h by magnetic resonance imaging subjective digestive symptoms, plasma amino acid, lipid and B vitamin concentrations, and gastric myoelectrical activity were measured over 5 h.

RESULTS

Although GCV T50 did not differ (102 ± 7 min compared with 89 ± 8 min, mean ± SEM, UHT-M and PAST-M, respectively; P = 0.051), GCV time to emptying 25% of the volume was 31% longer following UHT-M compared with PAST-M (42 ± 2 compared with 32 ± 4 min, P = 0.004). Although GCV remained larger for a longer duration following UHT-M (treatment × time interaction, P = 0.002), plasma essential amino acid AUC was greater following UHT-M than PAST-M (55,324 ± 3809 compared with 36,598 ± 5673 μmol·min·L-1, P = 0.006). Heat treatment did not impact gastric myoelectrical activity, plasma appetite hormone markers or subjective appetite scores.

CONCLUSIONS

Contrary to expectations, GE was slower with UHT-M, yet, as anticipated, aminoacidemia was greater. The larger GCV following UHT-M suggests that gastric volume may poorly predict circulating nutrient appearance from complex food matrices. Dairy heat treatment may be an effective tool to modify nutrient release by impacting digestion kinetics.

CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRY

www.anzctr.org.au (ACTRN12620000172909).

The comparison of the Nursing Activities Score and TrendCare to accurately measure critical care nursing workload: A prospective observational design

INTRODUCTION

Intensive care units commonly use the Nursing Activities Score (NAS) to measure nursing workload, however, some settings use TrendCare. Historically 100 NAS points reflected one nurse, however research now suggests greater than 61 NAS points per nurse increases hospital mortality.

OBJECTIVES

To determine if: 1) TrendCare accurately reflects critical care nursing workload as measured by the NAS and 2) the required nursing hours calculated by each of the scoring systems differed between indigenous and non-indigenous patients.

METHODS

Using a prospective observational design, data were collected between 9 August - 25 November 2021. Nursing workload was assessed over three shifts using TrendCare and the NAS.

RESULTS

Analysis included 183 patients and 829 TrendCare and NAS scores. The mean NAS for intensive care patients was >61 on all three shifts (morning M = 67.1 ± 18.2, afternoon M = 66.1 ± 18.1, night M = 64.0 ± 18.1). The mean NAS for high dependency patients (morning M = 46.1 ± 11.1, afternoon M 45.9 ± 11.0, night Mdn 46.1 [40.5-54.1]) identified a nurse:patient ratio of 1:2 reflected a NAS >90. The NAS and TrendCare found no difference in nursing hours between indigenous and non-indigenous patients, however higher scores for respiratory (H = 7.3, p = <.01), cardiovascular (H = 12.7, p = <.001) and renal (H = 12.7, p = <.001) support, and care for relatives and patients (H = 13.8, p = <.001) on some shifts were identified in indigenous patients.

CONCLUSION

TrendCare nursing hours likely reflect a 1:1 nurse: patient ratio for intensive care patients but likely under-estimates high dependency care nursing workload. The NAS activities highlighted some activities required more time for indigenous patients on some shifts.

IMPLICATIONS FOR CLINICAL PRACTICE

TrendCare likely reflects intensive care nursing workload but not high dependency nursing workload. A NAS of no greater than 61 points per nurse better reflects nursing workload in both the intensive and high dependency care units. Indigenous patients may require more nursing hours for nursing activities related to severity of illness.

Changes in weight status of caregivers of children and adolescents enrolled in a community-based healthy lifestyle programme: Five-year follow-up

Whānau Pakari is a family-centred healthy lifestyle programme for children/adolescents with overweight/obesity in New Zealand. This secondary analysis from our randomised trial within the clinical service assessed 5-year BMI changes in accompanying caregivers (n = 23), mostly mothers. Overall, baseline and 5-year caregivers' BMI were similar (32.50 vs 31.42 kg/m2, respectively; p = 0.31) but two-thirds (65%) experienced BMI reductions. Five-year BMI change was similar in High-intensity and Low-intensity randomisation groups [-1.37 kg/m2 (-4.95, 2.21); p = 0.44]. Caregiver's BMI change was not associated with child's BMI change. Despite no overall BMI reduction, our findings contrast with upward BMI trajectories predicted for NZ adults with overweight/obesity.

Body mass index and waist circumference trajectories across the life course and birth cohorts, 1996-2015 Malaysia: sex and ethnicity matter

OBJECTIVE

The global obesity epidemic remains a significant threat to public health and the economy. Age-period-cohort (APC) analysis is one method to model the trajectory of obesity. However, there is scarce published evidence of such analyses among the South East Asian population. This study aims to explore the sex and ethnic variations of BMI and waist circumference trajectories over time among non-institutionalized Malaysian adults aged 18 to 80 years.

METHODS

Data from four population-based National Health and Morbidity Surveys conducted in 1996, 2006, 2010, and 2015 were pooled. Hierarchical Age-Period-Cohort (HAPC) analysis explored the trajectories of BMI and waist circumference across the life course and birth cohorts by sex and ethnicity. These models assumed no period effect.

RESULTS

Generally, BMI and waist circumference trajectories increased across age and birth cohorts. These trajectories varied by sex and ethnicity. Females have more profound increasing BMI and waist circumference trajectories than their male counterparts as they age and as cohort recency increases. Chinese have less profound BMI and waist circumference increases across the life course and birth cohorts than other ethnic groups.

CONCLUSIONS

The profound increasing cohort trajectories of obesity, regardless of sex and ethnicity, are alarming. Future studies should focus on identifying factors associated with the less profound cohort effect among the Chinese to reduce the magnitude of trajectories in obesity, particularly among future generations.

The Role of Cdc42 in the Insulin and Leptin Pathways Contributing to the Development of Age-Related Obesity

Age-related obesity significantly increases the risk of chronic diseases such as type 2 diabetes, cardiovascular diseases, hypertension, and certain cancers. The insulin-leptin axis is crucial in understanding metabolic disturbances associated with age-related obesity. Rho GTPase Cdc42 is a member of the Rho family of GTPases that participates in many cellular processes including, but not limited to, regulation of actin cytoskeleton, vesicle trafficking, cell polarity, morphology, proliferation, motility, and migration. Cdc42 functions as an integral part of regulating insulin secretion and aging. Some novel roles for Cdc42 have also been recently identified in maintaining glucose metabolism, where Cdc42 is involved in controlling blood glucose levels in metabolically active tissues, including skeletal muscle, adipose tissue, pancreas, etc., which puts this protein in line with other critical regulators of glucose metabolism. Importantly, Cdc42 plays a vital role in cellular processes associated with the insulin and leptin signaling pathways, which are integral elements involved in obesity development if misregulated. Additionally, a change in Cdc42 activity may affect senescence, thus contributing to disorders associated with aging. This review explores the complex relationships among age-associated obesity, the insulin-leptin axis, and the Cdc42 signaling pathway. This article sheds light on the vast molecular web that supports metabolic dysregulation in aging people. In addition, it also discusses the potential therapeutic implications of the Cdc42 pathway to mitigate obesity since some new data suggest that inhibition of Cdc42 using antidiabetic drugs or antioxidants may promote weight loss in overweight or obese patients.

An age-period-cohort approach to studying long-term trends in obesity and overweight in England (1992-2019)

OBJECTIVE

This study aims to understand long-term trends in obesity and overweight in England by estimating life-course transitions as well as historical and birth cohort trends for both children and adults.

METHODS

Data on individuals aged 5 to 85 years old from the Health Survey for England were used, covering the period 1992 to 2019 and birth cohorts born between 1909 and 2013. Individual BMI values were classified as healthy weight, overweight, or obesity. Trends were compared, and an age-period-cohort model was estimated using logistic regression and categorical age, period, and cohort groups.

RESULTS

There was significant variation in age trajectories by birth cohorts for healthy weight and obesity prevalence. The odds of having obesity compared with a healthy weight increased consistently with age, increased throughout the study period (but faster between 1992 and 2001), and were higher for birth cohorts born between 1989 and 2008. The odds of having overweight showed an inverted U-shape among children, increased through adulthood, have been stable since 2012, and were considerably higher for the youngest birth cohort (2009-2013).

CONCLUSIONS

Younger generations with higher overweight prevalence coupled with increasing obesity prevalence with age suggest that obesity should remain a high priority for public health policy makers in England.

Weight gain is associated with shorter lifespan: a longitudinal study of New Zealand soldiers serving in both world wars

Obesity is an increasing public health concern with important mortality consequences. Weight gain or maximum adult BMI, not BMI at one point in time, has been shown to be an important risk factor in cohorts studied recently during an era of rapid increase in population levels of overweight and obesity. However, there is limited evidence on individual weight trajectories from cohorts born before the mid-twentieth century. Archival world war military personnel files from New Zealand are freely available online, and identify service in both wars. A pilot study of 316 soldiers confirmed the files contain sufficient information to examine health trajectories and lifespan. Because this cohort are now entirely deceased, nearly the entire sample can be found in death records to estimate the impact of weight increases on lifespan. Weight change over 20-30 years and its relationship with lifespan is examined using ordinary least squares regression. The study demonstrates that military records are a feasible source for collecting data on adult weight and health trajectories in the first half of the twentieth century. Although this sample is likely to be composed of men fitter than average, there is a clear pattern of increasing weight from early to mid-adulthood. Weight gain from early adulthood to middle-age was found to be more strongly associated with mortality than weight in early adulthood. A one unit increase in BMI over the inter-war period was found to be associated with an 8 month decline in lifespan. These results confirm that weight gain in adulthood has an important impact on mortality in an earlier birth cohort than previously studied, and that data exist to measure any changes more precisely over time.

Pharmacometric modeling of drug adverse effects: an application of mixture models in schizophrenia spectrum disorder patients treated with clozapine

Clozapine has superior efficacy to other antipsychotics yet is underutilized due to its adverse effects, such as neutropenia, weight gain, and tachycardia. The current investigation aimed to introduce a pharmacometric approach to simultaneously model drug adverse effects, with examples from schizophrenia spectrum patients receiving clozapine. The adverse drug effects were represented as a function of time by incorporating a mixture model to describe individual susceptibility to the adverse effects. Applications of the proposed method were presented by analyzing retrospective data from patients' medical records in Psychiatric Clinic, Penang General Hospital. Tachycardia, weight gain, and absolute neutrophils count (ANC) decrease were best described by an offset, a piecewise linear, and a transient surge function, respectively. 42.9% of the patients had all the adverse effects, including weight gain (0.01 kg/m² increase every week over a baseline of 24.7 kg/m² until stabilizing at 279 weeks), ANC decrease (20% decrease from 4540 cells/µL week 12-20.8), and tachycardia (14% constant increase over a baseline of 87.9 bpm for a clozapine maintenance dose of 450 mg daily). 32.5% of the patients had only tachycardia, while the remaining 24.6% had none of the adverse effects. A new pharmacometric approach was proposed to describe adverse drug effects with examples of clozapine-induced weight gain, ANC drop, and tachycardia. The current approach described the longitudinal time changes of continuous data while assessing patient susceptibility. Furthermore, the model revealed the possible co-existence of ANC drop and weight gain; thus, neutrophil monitoring might predict future changes in body weight.

Anti-Müllerian hormone concentration is associated with central adiposity and reproductive hormones in expectant fathers

OBJECTIVE

The role of the anti-Müllerian hormone (AMH) as an indicator of physical and reproductive health in men is unclear. We assessed the relationships between AMH and follicle-stimulating hormone (FSH), luteinizing hormone (LH), testosterone, and metabolic parameters, in a cohort of expectant fathers.

DESIGN

ORIGINS Project prospective cohort study.

SETTING

Community-dwelling men.

PARTICIPANTS

Partners of pregnant women attending antenatal appointments.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Serum AMH, FSH, LH, testosterone, and metabolic parameters.

RESULTS

In 485 expectant fathers, median age 33 years, median AMH was 40 pmol/L (quartiles 29, 56). AMH was inversely correlated with FSH, age, and body mass index (BMI) (correlation coefficients: -.32, -.24, and -.17 respectively). The age association was nonlinear, with peak AMH between 20 and 30 years, a decline thereafter, and somewhat steady levels after 45 years. The inverse association of AMH with FSH was log-linear and independent of age and BMI (β: -.07, SE: 0.01, p &lt; .001). AMH was inversely correlated with waist circumference and directly associated with sex hormone-binding globulin. Testosterone was moderately correlated with AMH (correlation coefficient: .09, β: .011, SE: 0.004, p = .014): this association was mediated by an inverse relationship with BMI (mediated proportion 0.49, p &lt; .001).

CONCLUSIONS

In reproductively active men, lower AMH is a biomarker for advancing age, and for poorer metabolic and reproductive health. The inverse association between AMH and FSH is independent of age and BMI, whereas the association of AMH and testosterone is mediated via BMI. The utility of AMH to predict reproductive and cardiometabolic outcomes in men warrants further investigation.

The mortality risk of being overweight in the twentieth century: Evidence from two cohorts of New Zealand men

How have health and social mortality risks changed over time? Evidence from pre-1945 cohorts is sparse, mostly from the United States, and evidence is mixed on long-term changes in the risk of being overweight. We develop a dataset of men entering the NZ army in the two world wars, with objectively measured height and weight, and socioeconomic status in early adulthood. Our sample includes significant numbers of indigenous Māori, providing estimates of weight and mortality risk in an indigenous population. We follow men from war's end until death, with data on more than 12,000 men from each war. Overweight and obesity were important risk factors for mortality, and associated with shorter life expectancy. However, the reduction in life expectancy associated with being overweight declined from 5 to 3 years between the two cohorts, consistent with the hypothesis that being overweight became less risky during the twentieth century.

Body mass index trend and variability in rheumatoid arthritis

OBJECTIVE

To characterize and compare trends in body mass index (BMI) and variability in BMI between subjects with rheumatoid arthritis (RA) and matched non-RA subjects and to determine predictors of BMI trends and variability within RA subjects.

METHODS

This retrospective population-based cohort study included 1114 Olmsted County, Minnesota residents, 558 with incident RA (age ≥ 18 years, 1987 ACR criteria met in 1995-2009) and 556 non-RA subjects from the same underlying population with similar age, sex, and index calendar year. All subjects were followed until death, migration, or 12/31/2018. Generalized linear models with smoothing splines and random effects to account for multiple measurements per subject were used to examine trends in BMI measurements over time.

RESULTS

Mean BMI of patients with incident RA (28.8 kg/m2) was not significantly different from that of non-RA subjects (28.9 kg/m2). There was no significant difference in BMI trends over time between RA and non-RA cohorts, or between seropositive for rheumatoid factor (RF) and/or citrullinated antibody (CCP-antibody) and seronegative RA patients, or between male and female subjects. RA subjects were noted to have significantly higher BMI variability following diagnosis compared to non-RA subjects [difference in standard deviation between RA and non-RA subjects prior to index (p = 0.12), 0-5 years after index (p = 0.044), and 5-15 years after index (p = 0.013)].

CONCLUSION

The BMI trajectory of the RA population is not significantly different compared to that of the non-RA population, but patients with RA demonstrate higher variability in BMI following diagnosis compared to the non-RA population. Key Points • This study uniquely characterizes longitudinal trajectory in BMI measures and their variability in the RA population versus the non-RA population • This study suggests that RA patients have greater BMI variability compared to the non-RA population, which is highly relevant as BMI variability is increasingly understood as a cardiovascular risk factor.

Cultural efficacy predicts body satisfaction for Māori

This paper examines the relationship between body mass index (BMI), self-esteem and self-reported confidence and capability in expressing oneself culturally as Māori (cultural efficacy) for 5,470 Māori who participated in Te Rangahau o Te Tuakiri Māori me Ngā Waiaro ā-Pūtea | The Māori Identity and Financial Attitudes Study (MIFAS) in 2017. Adjusting for demographics, self-reported health, education and socio-economic status, we found that a higher BMI was associated with lower body satisfaction and self-esteem. However, higher scores on cultural efficacy were associated with higher levels of body satisfaction and self-esteem for respondents. Furthermore, the negative association between BMI and both body satisfaction and self-esteem was weaker for those with higher cultural efficacy. This held for BMI scores of 25, 30, and 35+. While our data suggest higher cultural efficacy may directly or interactively shield Māori from developing lowered self-esteem typically associated with higher BMI in Western populations, further research, using more comprehensive measures of body satisfaction should explore the extent to which Māori may find the Western "thin ideal" personally desirable for their own bodies.

Modelling future trajectories of obesity and body mass index in England

BACKGROUND

Obesity is a leading risk for poor health outcomes in England. We examined best- and worst-case scenarios for the future trajectory of the obesity epidemic.

METHODS

Taking the last 27 years of Health Survey for England data, we determined both position and shape of the adult body mass index (BMI) distribution and projected these parameters 20 years forward in time. For the best-case scenario, we fitted linear models, allowing for a quadratic relationship between the outcome variable and time, to reflect a potential reversal in upwards trends. For the worst-case scenario, we fitted non-linear models that applied an exponential function to reflect a potential flattening of trends over time. Best-fitting models were identified using Monte Carlo cross-validation on 1991-2014 data, and predictions of population prevalence across five BMI categories were then validated using 2015-17 data.

RESULTS

Both linear and non-linear models showed a close fit to observed data (mean absolute error <2%). In the best-case scenario, the proportion of the population at increased risk (BMI≥25kg/m2) is predicted to fall from 66% in 2017 to 53% (95% confidence interval: 41% to 64%) in 2035. In the worst-case scenario, this proportion is likely to remain relatively stable overall- 64% (37% to 90%) in 2035 -but with an increasing proportion of the population at highest risk (BMI≥35kg/m2).

CONCLUSIONS

While obesity prediction depends on chosen modelling methods, even under optimistic assumptions it is likely that the majority of the English population will still be at increased risk of disease due to their weight until at least 2035, without greater allocation of resources to effective interventions.

An Age-Period-Cohort Analysis of Biomarkers of Lifestyle-Related Diseases Using the National Health and Nutrition Survey in Japan, 1973-2018

Studies of biomarkers of lifestyle-related diseases in Japanese cohorts are scarce. This study aimed to analyze trends in risk markers of lifestyle-related diseases using age-period-cohort (APC) analysis. Data on systolic blood pressure and BMI from 1973 to 2018 and serum glucose, triglyceride, and high-density lipoprotein cholesterol levels from 1989 to 2018 available from the National Health and Nutrition Survey were used. Values for each of the risk markers for each age, period, and cohort were estimated using APC analysis. For women, a decrease in all the risk markers of lifestyle-related diseases was observed in individuals born between the 1930s and approximately 1970. Therefore, female individuals born in approximately 1970 were considered to have the lowest risk of developing lifestyle-related and cardiovascular diseases. Meanwhile, the cohort effect on all the risk markers deteriorated for the younger cohorts, and changes in lifestyle behavior are needed for cohorts born more recently. For men, the trends in risk markers across the cohorts differed, and the relative risk of lifestyle-related diseases for each cohort differed according to disease. These results could help understand cohort-specific risks for lifestyle-related disease and enable identification of high-risk populations who could benefit from preventive measures.

Cross-classified multilevel models (CCMM) in health research: A systematic review of published empirical studies and recommendations for best practices

Recognizing that health outcomes are influenced by and occur within multiple social and physical contexts, researchers have used multilevel modeling techniques for decades to analyze hierarchical or nested data. Cross-Classified Multilevel Models (CCMM) are a statistical technique proposed in the 1990s that extend standard multilevel modeling and enable the simultaneous analysis of non-nested multilevel data. Though use of CCMM in empirical health studies has become increasingly popular, there has not yet been a review summarizing how CCMM are used in the health literature. To address this gap, we performed a scoping review of empirical health studies using CCMM to: (a) evaluate the extent to which this statistical approach has been adopted; (b) assess the rationale and procedures for using CCMM; and (c) provide concrete recommendations for the future use of CCMM. We identified 118 CCMM papers published in English-language literature between 1994 and 2018. Our results reveal a steady growth in empirical health studies using CCMM to address a wide variety of health outcomes in clustered non-hierarchical data. Health researchers use CCMM primarily for five reasons: (1) to statistically account for non-independence in clustered data structures; out of substantive interest in the variance explained by (2) concurrent contexts, (3) contexts over time, and (4) age-period-cohort effects; and (5) to apply CCMM alongside other techniques within a joint model. We conclude by proposing a set of recommendations for use of CCMM with the aim of improved clarity and standardization of reporting in future research using this statistical approach.

Gender-specific temporal trends in overweight prevalence among Chinese adults: a hierarchical age-period-cohort analysis from 2008 to 2015

Background

As a key health risk, the prevalence of overweight has been strikingly increasing worldwide. This study aimed to disentangle the net age, period, and cohort effects on overweight among Chinese adults by gender.

Methods

Data came from the Chinese General Social Survey from 2008 to 2015, which was a repeated cross-sectional survey (n = 55,726, aged 18 and older). χ² or t tests were used to estimate the gender disparities in overweight and socioeconomic status (SES). A series of hierarchical age-period-cohort cross-classified random-effects models were performed using SAS version 9.4 to estimate the overall and gender-specific temporal trends of overweight, as well as the association between SES and overweight. Further, a series of line charts were used to present the age and cohort variations in overweight.

Results

After controlling for covariates, significant age and cohort effects were observed among adults in China (b = 0.0205, p < 0.001; b = 0.0122, p < 0.05; respectively). Specifically, inverted U-shaped age effects were identified for both genders, with a high probability of overweight occurring in middle age (b = -0.0012, p < 0.001). Overweight was more prevalent among men than women before 60 years old, and this trend reversed thereafter (b = -0.0253, p < 0.001). Moreover, men born during the war (before 1950) and reform cohorts (after the 1975s) demonstrated a substantial decline in overweight, while men born in 1950-1975 showed an increasing trend in overweight prevalence (b = 0.0378, p < 0.05). However, the cohort effect on women was not statistically significant. Additionally, a higher SES was related to an elevated probability of overweight.

Conclusion

Gender-specific age and cohort effects on the prevalence of overweight were observed among Chinese adults. Both China and other developing countries need to pay attention to the coming obesity challenge and related health inequality. Full life-cycle overweight prevention interventions should focus on middle-aged adults, men born in the war and reform eras, and adults with a higher SES.

Long-term trends in the body mass index and obesity risk in Estonia: an age-period-cohort approach

OBJECTIVES

To analyse the age, period and cohort effects on the mean body mass index (BMI) and obesity over the past two decades in Estonia.

METHODS

Study used data from nationally representative repeated cross-sectional surveys on 11,547 men and 16,298 women from 1996 to 2018. The independent effects of age, period and cohort on predicted mean BMI and probability of obesity (BMI ≥ 30 kg/m²) were modelled using hierarchical age-period-cohort analysis.

RESULTS

Curvilinear association between age and mean BMI was found for men, whereas the increase in mean BMI was almost linear for women. The predicted mean BMI for 40-year-old men had increased by 6% and probability of obesity by 1.8 times over 1996-2018; the period effects were slightly smaller for women. Men from the 1970s birth cohort had higher mean BMI compared to the average, whereas no significant cohort effects were found for obesity outcome.

CONCLUSIONS

Population-level BMI changes in Estonia during 1996-2018 were mostly driven by period rather than cohort-specific changes.

Differences in the gut Firmicutes to Bacteroidetes ratio across age groups in healthy Ukrainian population

BACKGROUND

Gut microbiota plays an important role in physiological and pathological processes of the host organism, including aging. Microbiota composition was shown to vary significantly throughout the life course. Age-related changes in the composition of microbiota were reported in several human studies. In present study, age-related dynamics of phylogenetic profile of gut microbiota was investigated in 1550 healthy participants from Ukrainian population.

RESULTS

Significant changes in the microbiota composition determined by qRT-PCR at the level of major microbial phyla across age groups have been observed. The relative abundance of Actinobacteria and Firmicutes phyla increased, while that of Bacteroidetes decreased from childhood to elderly age. Accordingly, the Firmicutes/Bacteroidetes (F/B) ratio was shown to significantly increase until elder age. In both sexes, odds to have F/B > 1 tended to increase with age, reaching maximum values in elder age groups [OR = 2.7 (95% CI, 1.2-6.0) and OR = 3.7 (95% CI, 1.4-9.6) for female and male 60-69-year age groups, respectively, compared to same-sex reference (0-9-year) age groups].

CONCLUSIONS

In conclusion, data from our study indicate that composition of the human intestinal microbiota at the level of major microbial phyla significantly differs across age groups. In both sexes, the F/B ratio tends to increase with age from 0-9-year to 60-69-year age groups. Further studies are needed for a better understanding of mechanisms underlying age-related dynamics of human microbiota composition.

Increasing incidence of endometrial carcinoma in a high-risk New Zealand community

BACKGROUND

Endometrial carcinoma (EC) is increasing in incidence, attributed largely to the obesity epidemic. Ethnic differences in New Zealand have long been recognised, with Pacific women bearing the greater burden of disease. We hypothesise that the pooled national incidence rates underestimate the true burden of EC in our high-risk community.

AIMS

We aimed to: (1) determine the incidence, trends and outcome of EC in the high-risk community served by our hospital, relative to national data; and (2) examine associated demographic, and clinicopathological features with reference to risk factors, to identify potential clinical and population intervention points.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

All area-resident women treated for EC at Middlemore Hospital from 2000 to 2014 were identified from records, and clinicopathological data obtained. Incidence and time trend analyses were performed with reference to tumour type, age and ethnicity.

RESULTS

The study included 588 women. Pacific, followed by Māori, women had the highest incidence of EC (relative risk = 5.11 and 2.47, respectively, relative to 'Other' women). The incidence increased for all ethnicities (annual percentage change (APC) of 7.3; 95% CI 3.6-11.1), most marked in women aged below 50 years (APC of 12.2; 95% CI 5.2-19.7). This occurred predominantly in Pacific women, who had a high prevalence of potentially reversible risk factors. Disease-specific survival was worse in Pacific, and to a lesser extent, Māori women.

CONCLUSIONS

Prompt investigation of symptomatic, high-risk women regardless of age may detect endometrial abnormalities at an early, potentially reversible stage. The prevention and management of identifiable high-risk factors would help mitigate the risk of EC and associated diseases.

The obesity transition: stages of the global epidemic

The global prevalence of obesity has increased substantially over the past 40 years, from less than 1% in 1975, to 6-8% in 2016, among girls and boys, and from 3% to 11% among men and from 6% to 15% among women over the same time period. Our aim was to consolidate the evidence on the epidemiology of obesity into a conceptual model of the so-called obesity transition. We used illustrative examples from the 30 most populous countries, representing 77·5% of the world's population to propose a four stage model. Stage 1 of the obesity transition is characterised by a higher prevalence of obesity in women than in men, in those with higher socioeconomic status than in those with lower socioeconomic status, and in adults than in children. Many countries in south Asia and sub-Saharan Africa are presently in this stage. In countries in stage 2 of the transition, there has been a large increase in the prevalence among adults, a smaller increase among children, and a narrowing of the gap between sexes and in socioeconomic differences among women. Many Latin American and Middle Eastern countries are presently at this stage. High-income east Asian countries are also at this stage, albeit with a much lower prevalence of obesity. In stage 3 of the transition, the prevalence of obesity among those with lower socioeconomic status surpasses that of those with higher socioeconomic status, and plateaus in prevalence can be observed in women with high socioeconomic status and in children. Most European countries are presently at this stage. There are too few signs of countries entering into the proposed fourth stage of the transition, during which obesity prevalence declines, to establish demographic patterns. This conceptual model is intended to provide guidance to researchers and policy makers in identifying the current stage of the obesity transition in a population, anticipating subpopulations that will develop obesity in the future, and enacting proactive measures to attenuate the transition, taking into consideration local contextual factors.

Who Are the Key Players Involved with Shaping Public Opinion and Policies on Obesity and Diabetes in New Zealand?

There is an urgent need for strategic approaches to address the high prevalence of obesity and diabetes in New Zealand. Such approaches rely strongly on input from multiple actors in the diabetes and obesity policy space. We conducted a social network analysis to identify influential actors involved with shaping public opinion and/or policy regarding obesity and diabetes in New Zealand. Our analysis revealed a diverse network of 272 individuals deemed influential by their peers. These individuals represented nine professional categories, particularly academics (34%), health service providers (22%), and government representatives (17%). The network included a total of 17 identified decision-makers. Relative capacity of professional categories to access these decision-makers was highest for representatives of the food and beverage industry (25%), compared with nongovernment organisations (9%) or academics (7%). We identified six distinct brokers, in academic (n = 4), government (n = 1), and nongovernmental (n = 1) positions, who could play a key role in improving communication and networking activities among all interest groups. Such actions should ultimately establish effective networks to foster evidence-based policy development to prevent and reduce the burden of diabetes and obesity.