The incidence of Barrett's oesophagus and oesophageal adenocarcinoma in the United Kingdom and The Netherlands is levelling off

Long-term risk factors for developing Barrett's oesophagus in patients with gastro-oesophageal reflux disease: a longitudinal cohort study

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Several characteristics are known to affect the risk of Barrett's oesophagus (BO) in the general population, with symptomatic gastro-oesophageal reflux disease (GORD) being a critical risk factor. In this study, we examined factors that influence BO development in people living with GORD.

DESIGN

People living with GORD were recruited from an endoscopy unit with lifestyle, medical and prescribing history collected. Logistic regression analysis was undertaken to assess the effects of multiple parameters on the likelihood of developing BO.

RESULTS

1197 participants were recruited. Most were Caucasian (n=1188, 99%), had no formal educational qualifications (n=714; 59.6%) and lived with overweight (mean body mass index >25 kg/m2). Many lived in areas of least socioeconomic resource (n=568; 47.4%). 139 (11.6%) had BO at baseline. In adjusted baseline analysis (n=1197), male sex (adjusted OR, aOR 2.04 (95% CI 1.92 to 4.12), p≤0.001), increasing age (aOR 1.03 (95% CI 1.01 to 1.04), p≤0.0001) and proton pump inhibitor use (aOR 3.03 (95% CI 1.80 to 5.13), p≤0.0001) were associated with higher odds of BO. At follow-up (n=363), 22 (6.1%) participants developed BO; male sex (aOR 3.18 (95% CI 1.28 to 7.86), p=0.012), pack-years cigarettes smoked (aOR 1.04 (95% CI 1.00 to 1.08), p=0.046) and increased alcohol intake (aOR 1.02 (95% CI 1.00 to 1.04), p=0.013), were associated with increased odds of BO.

CONCLUSION

Male sex, pack-years cigarettes smoked, and increasing alcohol intake, were independently associated with increased odds of developing BO over 20-year follow-up. These results align with research linking male sex and smoking with BO and extend this by implicating the potential role of alcohol in developing BO, which may require communication through public health messaging.

Risk factors for Barrett's esophagus: Recent advances

Esophageal adenocarcinoma (EAC) is the most common malignant tumor of the esophagus in the West. During the past few decades, its morbidity has been increasing in China. Barrett's esophagus (BE) is defined as the replacement of normal squamous epithelium in the lower esophagus by metaplasia of columnar epithelium. BE is closely related to the occurrence of EAC. Knowledge regarding the risk factors for the occurrence and development of BE is of great significance for early screening and diagnosis of BE and prevention of EAC. In this paper, we review the clinical, demographics-related, lifestyle-related, and medications-related risk factors for BE to provide more valuable scientific evidence for the prevention and treatment of BE.

Barrett's Esophagus: Diagnosis, Management, and Key Updates

Barrett's esophagus (BE) is the precursor lesion for esophageal adenocarcinoma (EAC) development. Unfortunately, BE screening/surveillance has not provided the anticipated EAC reduction benefit. Noninvasive techniques are increasingly available or undergoing testing to screen for BE among those with/without known risk factors, and the use of artificial intelligence platforms to aid endoscopic screening and surveillance will likely become routine, minimizing missed cases or lesions. Management of high-grade dysplasia and intramucosal EAC is clear with endoscopic eradication therapy preferred to surgery. BE with low-grade dysplasia can be managed with removal of visible lesions combined with endoscopic eradication therapy or endoscopic surveillance at present.

Improving cost-effectiveness of endoscopic surveillance for Barrett's esophagus by reducing low-value care: a review of economic evaluations

BACKGROUND

Individuals with Barrett's esophagus are believed to be at 30-120× risk of developing esophageal adenocarcinoma (EAC). Early detection and endoscopic treatment of dysplasia/early cancer confers a significant advantage to patients under surveillance; however, most do not progress past the non-dysplastic state of Barrett's esophagus (NDBE), which is potentially an inefficient distribution of health care resources.

OBJECTIVES

This article aimed to review the outcomes of cost-effectiveness studies reducing low-value care in the context of endoscopic surveillance for non-dysplastic Barrett's esophagus (NDBE).

METHODS

A systematic search was conducted by two reviewers in accordance with PRISMA guidelines.

INCLUSION CRITERIA

cost-utility analyses of endoscopic surveillance of NDBE patients with at least one treatment strategy focused on reduction of surveillance. A narrative synthesis of economic evaluations was undertaken, along with an in-depth analysis of input parameters contributing to stated Incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICER). Study appraisal was performed using the consolidated health economic evaluation reporting standards (CHEERS) tool.

RESULTS

10 Studies met inclusion criteria. There was significant variation in cost-model structures, input parameters, ICER values, and willingness-to-pay thresholds between studies. All studies except one concluded guideline-specified endoscopic surveillance for NDBE patients was not cost-effective. Studies that explored a modified surveillance by deselection of low-risk NDBE patients found it to be a cost-effective strategy.

CONCLUSION

Guideline specified endoscopic surveillance for NDBE was not found to be cost-effective in the studies examined. A modified endoscopic surveillance strategy removing individuals with the lowest risk for progression from NDBE to adenocarcinoma is likely to be cost-effective but is dependent on risk profile of patients excluded from surveillance.

Trends and projections in the incidence of oesophageal cancer in the Netherlands: An age-period-cohort analysis from 1989 to 2041

In Western populations, the incidence of oesophageal squamous cell carcinoma (OSCC) has been declining, whereas the incidence of oesophageal adenocarcinoma (OAC) has been increasing. Our study examines temporal trends in the incidence of oesophageal cancer in the Netherlands between 1989 and 2016, in addition to predicting future trends through 2041. Data from the Netherlands Cancer Registry and Statistics Netherlands were collected to obtain incidence trends of OSCC and OAC for the period 1989 to 2016. Age‐period‐cohort (APC) modelling was used to estimate the contribution of age, calendar period and birth cohort on the observed incidence trends. To predict the future numbers of new cases of both OSCC and OAC from 2017 to 2041, log‐linear APC models were fitted to the trends of 1989 to 2016. The age‐standardised incidence rates of OSCC have decreased slightly for men and increased slightly for women. In contrast, a marked increase in the incidence of OAC was observed, ranging from 2.8 per 100 000 persons in 1989 to 10.1 in 2016. This increase in OAC incidence was more prominent in men, and it will result in an increased risk of OAC for successive generations. Future projections indicate that the incidence of OAC will further increase to 13.1 per 100 000 persons in 2037 to 2041, meaning that there will be 13 259 cases of OAC in 2037 to 2041, as compared to 9386 diagnoses in 2017 to 2021. The changing epidemiologic trends in oesophageal cancer in the Netherlands should be reflected in the development of prevention, early detection and treatment strategies.

What's new?

The incidence of esophageal adenocarcinoma (OAC) is on the rise in Western countries. Better understanding of this trend could facilitate critical improvements in OAC prevention, early detection, and treatment strategies. Here, the authors investigated trends in OAC incidence from 1989 to 2016 for successive birth cohorts in the Netherlands. OAC incidence was found to have increased significantly since 1989, with risk rising most noticeably in men. Analyses through 2037‐2041 predict continued growth in OAC cases. The findings highlight the importance of promoting measures to prevent esophageal cancer, particularly those aimed at controlling modifiable risk factors, such as obesity and smoking.

Challenges in Determining the Role of Microbiome Evolution in Barrett's Esophagus and Progression to Esophageal Adenocarcinoma

Esophageal adenocarcinoma (EAC) claims the lives of half of patients within the first year of diagnosis, and its incidence has rapidly increased since the 1970s despite extensive research into etiological factors. The changes in the microbiome within the distal esophagus in modern populations may help explain the growth in cases that other common EAC risk factors together cannot fully explain. The precursor to EAC is Barrett's esophagus (BE), a metaplasia adapted to a reflux-mediated microenvironment that can be challenging to diagnose in patients who do not undergo endoscopic screening. Non-invasive procedures to detect microbial communities in saliva, oral swabs and brushings from the distal esophagus allow us to characterize taxonomic differences in bacterial population abundances within patients with BE versus controls, and may provide an alternative means of BE detection. Unique microbial communities have been identified across healthy esophagus, BE, and various stages of progression to EAC, but studies determining dynamic changes in these communities, including migration from proximal stomach and oral cavity niches, and their potential causal role in cancer formation are lacking. Helicobacter pylori is negatively associated with EAC, and the absence of this species has been implicated in the evolution of chromosomal instability, a main driver of EAC, but joint analyses of microbiome and host genomes are needed. Acknowledging technical challenges, future studies on the prediction of microbial dynamics and evolution within BE and the progression to EAC will require larger esophageal microbiome datasets, improved bioinformatics pipelines, and specialized mathematical models for analysis.

Attending Training Courses on Barrett's Esophagus Improves Adherence to Guidelines: A Survey from the Italian Society of Digestive Endoscopy

BACKGROUND

Little is known on practice patterns of endoscopists for the management of Barrett's esophagus (BE) over the last decade.

AIMS

Our aim was to assess practice patterns of endoscopists for the diagnosis, surveillance and treatment of BE.

METHODS

All members of the Italian Society of Digestive Endoscopy (SIED) were invited to participate to a questionnaire-based survey. The questionnaire included questions on demographic and professional characteristics, and on diagnosis and management strategies for BE.

RESULTS

Of the 883 SIED members, 259 (31.1%) completed the questionnaire. Of these, 73% were males, 42.9% had > 50 years of age and 68.7% practiced in community hospitals. The majority (82.9%) of participants stated to use the Prague classification; however 34.5% did not use the top of gastric folds to identify the gastro-esophageal junction (GEJ); only 51.4% used advanced endoscopy imaging routinely. Almost all respondents practiced endoscopic surveillance for non-dysplastic BE, but 43.7% performed eradication in selected cases and 30% practiced surveillance every 1-2 years. The majority of endoscopists managed low-grade dysplasia with surveillance (79.1%) and high-grade dysplasia with ablation (77.1%). Attending a training course on BE in the previous 5 years was significantly associated with the use of the Prague classification (OR 4.8, 95% CI 1.9-12.1), the top of gastric folds as landmark for the GEJ (OR 2.45, 95% CI 1.27-4.74) and advanced imaging endoscopic techniques (OR 3.33, 95% CI 1.53-7.29).

CONCLUSIONS

Practice patterns for management of BE among endoscopists are variable. Attending training courses on BE improves adherence to guidelines.

The global prevalence of Barrett's esophagus: A systematic review of the published literature

BACKGROUND

Determining the prevalence of Barrett's esophagus is important for defining screening strategies. We aimed to synthesize the available data, determine Barrett's esophagus prevalence, and assess variability.

METHODS

Three databases were searched. Subgroup, sensitivity, and meta-regression analyses were conducted and pooled prevalence was computed.

RESULTS

Of 3510 studies, 103 were included. In the general population, we estimated a prevalence for endoscopic suspicion of Barrett's esophagus of (a) any length with histologic confirmation of intestinal metaplasia as 0.96% (95% confidence interval: 0.85-1.07), (b) ≥1 cm of length with histologic confirmation of intestinal metaplasia as 0.96% (95% confidence interval: 0.75-1.18) and (c) for any length with histologic confirmation of columnar metaplasia as 3.89% (95% confidence interval: 2.25-5.54) . By excluding studies with high-risk of bias, the prevalence decreased to: (a) 0.70% (95% confidence interval: 0.61-0.79) and (b) 0.82% (95% confidence interval: 0.63-1.01). In gastroesophageal reflux disease patients, we estimated the prevalence with afore-mentioned criteria to be: (a) 7.21% (95% confidence interval: 5.61-8.81) (b) 6.72% (95% confidence interval: 3.61-9.83) and (c) 7.80% (95% confidence interval: 4.26-11.34). The Barrett's esophagus prevalence was significantly influenced by time period, region, Barrett's esophagus definition, Seattle protocol, and study design. There was a significant gradient East-West and North-South. There were minimal to no data available for several countries. Moreover, there was significant heterogeneity between studies.

CONCLUSION

There is a need to reassess the true prevalence of Barrett's esophagus using the current guidelines in most regions. Having knowledge about the precise Barrett's esophagus prevalence, diverse attitudes from educational to screening programs could be taken.

Genomic copy number predicts esophageal cancer years before transformation

Recent studies show that aneuploidy and driver gene mutations precede cancer diagnosis by many years^1-4. We assess whether these genomic signals can be used for early detection and pre-emptive cancer treatment using the neoplastic precursor lesion Barrett's esophagus as an exemplar⁵. Shallow whole-genome sequencing of 777 biopsies, sampled from 88 patients in Barrett's esophagus surveillance over a period of up to 15 years, shows that genomic signals can distinguish progressive from stable disease even 10 years before histopathological transformation. These findings are validated on two independent cohorts of 76 and 248 patients. These methods are low-cost and applicable to standard clinical biopsy samples. Compared with current management guidelines based on histopathology and clinical presentation, genomic classification enables earlier treatment for high-risk patients as well as reduction of unnecessary treatment and monitoring for patients who are unlikely to develop cancer.

Wide-area transepithelial sampling in adjunct to forceps biopsy increases the absolute detection rates of Barrett's oesophagus and oesophageal dysplasia: a meta-analysis and systematic review

BACKGROUND

Wide-area transepithelial sampling (WATS) is a new technique that uses an abrasive brush to obtain samples from a larger surface area of the oesophagus. Studies have shown promising results that WATS in adjunct to forceps biopsy (FB) increases the detection rate of Barrett's oesophagus (BE) as well as oesophageal dysplasia (ED). We conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis to compare the detection rates of BE and ED between FB and WATS in adjunct to FB.

METHODS

A Literature search was done using electronic databases, including PubMed, Embase, Scopus, Cochrane and CINAHL from inception to 26 April 2020. A meta-analysis comparing detection rates of WATS in adjunct to FB versus FB using the random-effects model was done using RevMan V.5.3.

RESULTS

Pooled data from 20 392 endoscopies across 11 studies showed an absolute increase in detection of 16% (95% CI 0.10% to 0.22%, p<0.00001). A relative increase of 1.62 was seen in detection rates of BE (95% CI 1.28 to 2.05, p<0.0001) when WATS was used with FB with the number needed to test (NNT) of 6.1 patients. For ED, a 2% absolute increase (95% CI 0.01 to 0.03, p=0.001) in additional diagnostic yield from WATS. A relative increase of 2.05 was seen in the detection rate of ED (95% CI 1.42 to 2.98, p=0.0001) yielding an NNT of 50 patients.

CONCLUSION

Our study shows that WATS, as an adjunct to FB, improves both the absolute detection rate and relative detection rate of both BE and ED as compared to FB alone.

Circulating Levels of Inflammatory and Metabolic Biomarkers and Risk of Esophageal Adenocarcinoma and Barrett Esophagus: Systematic Review and Meta-analysis

Associations between circulating levels of obesity-related biomarkers and risk of esophageal adenocarcinoma and Barrett esophagus have been reported, but the results are inconsistent. A literature search until October 2018 in MEDLINE and EMBASE was performed. Pooled ORs with 95% confidence intervals (CI) were estimated for associations between 13 obesity-related inflammatory and metabolic biomarkers and risk of esophageal adenocarcinoma or Barrett esophagus using random effect meta-analyses. Among 7,641 studies, 19 were eligible for inclusion (12 cross-sectional, two nested case-control, and five cohort studies). Comparing the highest versus lowest categories of circulating biomarker levels, the pooled ORs were increased for leptin (OR, 1.68; 95% CI, 0.95-2.97 for Barrett esophagus), glucose (OR, 1.12; 95% CI, 1.03-1.22 for esophageal adenocarcinoma), insulin (OR, 1.47; 95% CI, 1.06-2.00 for Barrett esophagus), C-reactive protein (CRP; OR, 2.06; 95% CI, 1.28-3.31 for esophageal adenocarcinoma), IL6 (OR, 1.50; 95% CI, 1.03-2.19 for esophageal adenocarcinoma), and soluble TNF receptor 2 (sTNFR-2; OR, 3.16; 95% CI, 1.76-5.65 for esophageal adenocarcinoma). No associations were identified for adiponectin, ghrelin, insulin-like growth factor 1, insulin-like growth factor-binding protein 3, triglycerides, IL8, or TNFα. Higher circulating levels of leptin, glucose, insulin, CRP, IL6, and sTNFR-2 may be associated with an increased risk of esophageal adenocarcinoma or Barrett esophagus. More prospective studies are required to identify biomarkers that can help select high-risk individuals for targeted prevention and early detection.

The role of esophagectomy in the management of Barrett's esophagus with high-grade dysplasia

Barrett's esophagus (BE) with high-grade dysplasia (HGD) has previously been a routine indication for esophagectomy. Recent advances in endoscopic therapy have resulted in a shift away from surgery. Current international guidelines recommend endoscopic therapy for BE with HGD irrespective of recurrence or progression of dysplasia. Current guidelines do not address the ongoing role of esophagectomy as an adjunct in the setting of failed endoscopic therapy. This review examines the role of esophagectomy as an adjunct to endoscopy in the management of patients with BE and HGD, with a specific focus on patients with persistent, progressive, or recurrent disease, disease resistant to endoscopic therapy, in patients with concomitant esophageal pathology, and in those patients in whom lifelong surveillance may not be possible or desired.

Barrett's esophagus patients are becoming younger: analysis of a large United States dataset

BACKGROUND

Barrett's esophagus (BE), a complication of long-term gastroesophageal reflux disease (GERD), has been reported to affect 6-8% of those with heartburn. Most patients are males, Caucasians and middle aged. However, there are no recent demographic studies that evaluated the proportion trends of BE. We aimed to assess proportion trends of BE over an 11-year period, using a very large national dataset.

METHODS

This was a population-based analysis of the national Explorys dataset. Explorys is an aggregate of electronic medical record database representing over 54 million patients. Proportions of BE's variables such as age, gender, race, BMI, and treatment with PPI were recorded during an 11-year period. BE patients were classified into seven age groups (15-19, 20-29, 30-39, 40-49, 50-59, 60-69, ≥ 70 years old). Secular trends of the proportion of BE were assessed over time for each age group.

RESULTS

The majority of patients diagnosed with BE were ≥ 70 years old across all calendar years. However, the proportion of BE patients who were ≥ 70 years old has significantly decreased between 2006 and 2016 (- 19.9%, p < 0.001). The proportion of patients with BE increased in all age groups but most prominently in the age groups, 30-39: 2.07%, 40-49: 3.64%, 50-59: 6.89%, 60-69: 6.18%, p < 0.001. BE was significantly more common in those who were Caucasian and male. PPI usage fell significantly in those who were ≥ 70 years old (- 20.8%, p < 0.001), but increased in the other remaining age groups.

CONCLUSIONS

The proportion of BE patients who are 70 years and older has significantly dropped. Younger patients' groups have demonstrated the highest increase in the proportion of BE patients, especially those in the age group of 30-39 years old.

A cost-effectiveness analysis of endoscopic eradication therapy for management of dysplasia arising in patients with Barrett's oesophagus in the United Kingdom

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Endoscopic eradication therapy (EET) is the first line approach for treating Barrett's oesophagus (BE) related neoplasia globally. The British Society of Gastroenterology (BSG) recommend EET with combined endoscopic resection (ER) for visible dysplasia followed by endoscopic ablation in patients with both low and high grade dysplasia (LGD and HGD). The aim of this study is to perform a cost-effectiveness analysis for EET for treatment of all grades of dysplasia in BE patients.

METHODS

A Markov cohort model with a lifetime time horizon was used to undertake a cost-effectiveness analysis. A hypothetical cohort of UK patients diagnosed with BE entered the model. Patients in the treatment arm with LGD and HGD received EET and patients with non-dysplastic BE (NDBE) received endoscopic surveillance only. In the comparator arm, patients with LGD, HGD and NDBE received endoscopic surveillance only. A UK National Health Service (NHS) perspective was adopted and the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) was calculated. Sensitivity analysis was conducted on key input parameters.

RESULTS

EET for patients with LGD and HGD arising in BE is cost-effective compared to endoscopic surveillance alone (lifetime ICER £3006 per quality adjusted life year [QALY] gained). The results show that, as the time horizon increases, the treatment becomes more cost-effective. The 5 year financial impact to the UK NHS of introducing EET is £7.1m.

CONCLUSIONS

EET for patients with low and high grade BE dysplasia, following updated guidelines from the BSG, has been shown to be cost-effective for patients with BE in the UK.

'Missed' oesophageal adenocarcinoma and high-grade dysplasia in Barrett's oesophagus patients: A large population-based study

BACKGROUND

A systematic review suggests that 25% of oesophageal adenocarcinomas (OAC) are 'missed' at index endoscopy for Barrett's oesophagus (BO); however, this included few population-based studies and may be an overestimate.

OBJECTIVE

The objective of this article is to quantify the 'missed' rates of high-grade dysplasia (HGD) and OAC at index BO endoscopy.

METHODS

Patients from the Northern Ireland BO register diagnosed between 1993 and 2010 (n = 13,159) were linked to the Northern Ireland Cancer Registry to identify patients who developed OAC or HGD. Logistic regression analysis compared characteristics of 'missed' vs 'incident' HGD/OAC, defined as diagnoses within 3-12 months vs >1 year after incident BO, respectively.

RESULTS

A total of 267 patients were diagnosed with HGD/OAC ≥3 months after BO diagnosis, of whom 34 (12.7%) were potentially 'missed'. The proportion of 'missed' HGD/OAC was 25% among BO patients with low-grade dysplasia (LGD) and 9% among non-dysplastic BO patients. Older age and BO-LGD carried a higher risk of 'missed' HGD/OAC. Non-dysplastic BO patients were more often diagnosed with a 'missed' OAC (rather than HGD; 89%), compared with BO-LGD patients (40%).

CONCLUSIONS

Approximately one in 10 HGD/OAC cases are 'missed' at incident BO diagnosis, which is significant but lower than previous reports. However, 'missed' HGD/OAC cases represent only 0.26% of all BO patients.

The association between physical activity and the risk of symptomatic Barrett's oesophagus: a UK prospective cohort study

BACKGROUND

Physical activity affects the functioning of the gastrointestinal system through both local and systemic effects and may play an important role in the aetiology of gastroesophageal reflux disease, Barrett's oesophagus and oesophageal adenocarcinoma. We investigated, for the first time in a large prospective cohort study, associations between recreational and occupational levels of physical activity and the incidence of Barrett's oesophagus.

PARTICIPANTS AND METHODS

The European Prospective Investigation of Cancer-Norfolk recruited 30 445 men and women between 1993 and 1997. Occupational and recreational levels of physical activity were measured using a baseline questionnaire. The cohort was followed up until 2015 to identify symptomatic cases of Barrett's oesophagus. Cox proportional hazard regression estimated hazard ratios (HR) for physical activity and the development of disease.

RESULTS

Two hundred and three participants developed Barrett's oesophagus (mean age: 70.6 years) the majority of whom were men (70.9%). There was an inverse association between standing occupations and disease risk [HR: 0.50, 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.31-0.82, P=0.006] when compared with sedentary jobs. Heavy manual occupations were positively associated with disease risk (HR: 1.66, 95% CI: 0.91-3.00), but conventional statistical significance was not reached (P=0.09). No associations were found between recreational activity and the risk of Barrett's oesophagus (HR: 1.34, 95% CI: 0.72-2.50, P=0.35, highest vs. lowest levels of activity).

CONCLUSION

Our study suggests that occupational levels of physical activity may be associated with the risk Barrett's oesophagus. However, further work is required to confirm and describe specific occupations that may be protective.

Natural History of Barrett's Esophagus

Barrett's esophagus (BE) is a very common condition. We have obtained fairly profound knowledge of the natural history of this condition. This results from many cross-sectional and cohort studies, many describing patients undergoing long-term surveillance. Their consent to use their clinical data has improved our knowledge to the benefit of these same and other patients. The prevalence of BE increases with age both in men and in women. This increase starts at a younger age in men than in women. The incidence of high-grade dysplasia and cancer in BE depends on segment length, gender, and age. The latter two likely indicate the duration of the presence of BE in an individual patient. Other factors that influence the incidence of dysplasia and cancer are smoking behavior and use of certain medications such as PPIs, statins, and NSAIDs. Surveillance of BE and treatment of dysplasia can impact the incidence of and mortality due to esophageal adenocarcinoma. This is of major benefit to a subgroup of BE patients. The epidemiology and burden of disease ask for further efforts to develop targeted screening, surveillance, and intervention techniques in coming years.

Predicting the Future Burden of Esophageal Cancer by Histological Subtype: International Trends in Incidence up to 2030

OBJECTIVES

Rapid increases in the incidence of esophageal adenocarcinoma (EAC) in high-income countries in the past decades have raised public health concerns. This study is the first to predict the future burden of esophageal cancer by histological subtype using international incidence data.

METHODS

Data on esophageal cancer incidence by year of diagnosis, sex, histology, and age group were extracted from 42 registries in 12 countries included in the last three volumes (VIII-X) of Cancer Incidence in Five Continents, contributing at least 15 years of consecutive data. Numbers of new cases and incidence rates were predicted up to 2030 by fitting and extrapolating age-period-cohort models; the differential impact of demographic vs. risk changes on future cases were examined.

RESULTS

The number of new AC cases is expected to increase rapidly 2005-2030 in all studied countries as a combined result of increasing risk and changing demographics. In contrast, the incidence of esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC) is predicted to continue decreasing in most countries. By 2030, 1 in 100 men in the Netherlands and the United Kingdom are predicted to be diagnosed with EAC during their lifetime.

CONCLUSIONS

The burden from EAC is expected to rise dramatically across high-income countries and has already or will surpass ESCC incidence in the coming years, especially among men. Notwithstanding the inherent uncertainties in trend-based predictions and in subtype misclassification, these findings highlight an ongoing transition in the epidemiology of esophageal cancer that is highly relevant to future cancer control planning and clinical practice.

Clinical characteristics and associated factors of Japanese patients with adenocarcinoma of the esophagogastric junction: a multicenter clinicoepidemiological study

Gastroesophageal reflux disease-related diseases, such as Barrett's esophagus and adenocarcinoma of the esophagogastric junction (AEGJ), are believed to occur less frequently in Asia than in Western countries. However, the number of reported cases is increasing, yet little is known regarding the epidemiology of AEGJ in Japan. The primary study aim is to investigate the clinicoepidemiological characteristics of AEGJ. The secondary aim is to identify factors associated with it. In the 6.5 years between January 2008 and June 2014, we reviewed 88,199 esophagogastroduodenoscopy (EGD) reports and associated medical records (Study 1). We conducted a case-control study to identify factors associated with AEGJ (Study 2). Control subjects were randomly selected and age and sex matched from among subjects who underwent EGD during medical evaluations. Odds ratios (ORs) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were calculated using an unconditional logistic regression method. During the study period, 83 patients with AEGJ (72 men and 11 women; mean age 68 years) were diagnosed. Six cases were Siewert type I and 77 were type II. The incidence rate of AEGJ was 0.6-1.7/100,000 person-years. Compared with the 101 control subjects, obesity (body mass index ≧ 25 kg/m2; [OR = 2.82; 95% CI: 1.13-7.01]) was associated with AEGJ. The incidence rate of AEGJ is lower in Japan than in Western countries, but associated factors similar to those in Western patients were detected, including obesity, a hiatal hernia, smoking, and the male sex.

A comparative analysis of whole genome sequencing of esophageal adenocarcinoma pre- and post-chemotherapy

The scientific community has avoided using tissue samples from patients that have been exposed to systemic chemotherapy to infer the genomic landscape of a given cancer. Esophageal adenocarcinoma is a heterogeneous, chemoresistant tumor for which the availability and size of pretreatment endoscopic samples are limiting. This study compares whole-genome sequencing data obtained from chemo-naive and chemo-treated samples. The quality of whole-genomic sequencing data is comparable across all samples regardless of chemotherapy status. Inclusion of samples collected post-chemotherapy increased the proportion of late-stage tumors. When comparing matched pre- and post-chemotherapy samples from 10 cases, the mutational signatures, copy number, and SNV mutational profiles reflect the expected heterogeneity in this disease. Analysis of SNVs in relation to allele-specific copy-number changes pinpoints the common ancestor to a point prior to chemotherapy. For cases in which pre- and post-chemotherapy samples do show substantial differences, the timing of the divergence is near-synchronous with endoreduplication. Comparison across a large prospective cohort (62 treatment-naive, 58 chemotherapy-treated samples) reveals no significant differences in the overall mutation rate, mutation signatures, specific recurrent point mutations, or copy-number events in respect to chemotherapy status. In conclusion, whole-genome sequencing of samples obtained following neoadjuvant chemotherapy is representative of the genomic landscape of esophageal adenocarcinoma. Excluding these samples reduces the material available for cataloging and introduces a bias toward the earlier stages of cancer.

Influence of body mass index on the prevalence and progression of dysplasia in Barrett's esophagus: a retrospective analysis (.)

OBJECTIVE

High body mass index (BMI) is a risk factor for Barrett's esophagus (BE) and esophageal adenocarcinoma (EAC). Our aim was to determine if prevalence of dysplasia in BE varies by BMI and study the effect of BMI on progression to high-grade dysplasia (HGD) or EAC.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

This is a retrospective review of patients with endoscopic evidence of BE confirmed by presence of intestinal metaplasia on histology from January 2000 to December 2012 at Cleveland Clinic. Patient demographics, BMI and endoscopic findings such as length of BE, dysplasia in BE and size of hiatal hernia were reviewed. Dysplasia was classified as no dysplasia (NDBE), low-grade dysplasia (LGD), HGD and EAC.

RESULTS

In this cohort of 1239 patients, average BMI was 29.8 ± 6 kg/m(2). There were 228 (18.4%) in group with BMI <25, 236 (19%) in BMI group 25-27.4, 262 (21.1%) in BMI 27.5-29.9, 303 (24.5%) in BMI 30-34.9, 126 (10.2%) in BMI 35-39.9 and 86 (6.8%) in BMI ≥40. Lower BMI groups had lower prevalence of dysplasia while higher BMI groups had higher prevalence of dysplasia (p = 0.002). During mean follow up of 31.6 ± 26 months, there were 14 cases of HGD/EAC in NDBE group and 29 cases of HGD/EAC in LGD group. BMI or BMI change was not associated with progression to HGD/EAC in NDBE.

CONCLUSIONS

High BMI was associated with higher prevalence of dysplasia in BE. But once in a surveillance program, higher BMI is not associated with progression of dysplasia in NDBE.

[Barrett's esophagus]

Barrett's esophagus is an endoscopically visible metaplasia of the columnar epithelium in the esophagus with histological detection of a specialized intestinal metaplasia. The circumferential and longitudinal extent are described endoscopically using the Prague classification. Barrett's esophagus mostly occurs as the result of gastroesophageal reflux disease. The risk of developing esophageal adenocarcinoma is increased but the absolute risk is low with 0.10-0.15 % per year. According to guideline recommendations, screening for Barrett's esophagus as well as endoscopic and biopsy surveillance should be limited to high risk groups. On detection of intraepithelial neoplasia (IEN) endoscopic therapy is indicated, whereby a second opinion must be obtained from a specialized pathologist for low-grade IEN. The influence of proton pump inhibitors on the progression to carcinoma is controversially discussed and a preventive anti-reflux operation is not indicated.

Systematic review with meta-analysis: prevalent vs. incident oesophageal adenocarcinoma and high-grade dysplasia in Barrett's oesophagus

BACKGROUND

The proportion of oesophageal adenocarcinoma that is detected concurrently with initial Barrett's oesophagus diagnosis is not well studied.

AIM

To compare the proportion of prevalent adenocarcinoma vs. incident adenocarcinoma found during surveillance of Barrett's.

METHODS

We performed a systematic search of MEDLINE, EMBASE and Web of Science (from their inception to 31 May 2015) for cohort studies in adults with Barrett's (nondysplastic Barrett's ± Barrett's with low-grade dysplasia) with minimum average follow-up of 3 years, and providing numbers of prevalent adenocarcinoma detected (concurrently with Barrett's diagnosis and up to 1 year afterwards) vs. incident adenocarcinoma detected (greater than 1 year after Barrett's diagnosis). Pooled weighted proportions of prevalent and incident adenocarcinoma were calculated, using a random effects model.

RESULTS

On meta-analysis of 13 studies reporting on 603 adenocarcinomas in 9657 Barrett's patients, 85.1% of adenocarcinomas were classified as prevalent [95% confidence interval (CI), 78.1-90.2%) and 14.9% as incident (95% CI, 9.8-21.9%), with substantial heterogeneity (I(2) = 66%). Among nine studies reporting on 787 high-grade dysplasia and oesophageal adenocarcinomas in 8098 Barrett's patients, the proportion of prevalent high-grade dysplasia-oesophageal adenocarcinoma was similar at 80.5% (95% CI, 68.1-88.8%, I(2) = 87%). These results remained stable across multiple subgroup analyses including study quality, setting, duration of follow-up and presence of baseline dysplasia.

CONCLUSIONS

In our meta-analysis, four of five patients diagnosed with adenocarcinoma or high-grade dysplasia at index endoscopy or within 1 year of Barrett's follow-up were considered to be prevalent cases. Continued efforts are needed to identify patients with Barrett's before the development of adenocarcinoma.

Risk factors for Barrett's esophagus

Barrett's esophagus (BE) is a well-recognized precursor of esophageal adenocarcinoma (EAC) and is defined as ≥1 cm segment of salmon-colored mucosa extending above the gastroesophageal junction into the tubular esophagus with biopsy confirmation of metaplastic replacement of the normal squamous epithelium by intestinal-type columnar epithelium. The incidence of both BE and EAC has been increasing over the past few decades. As a result, preventing the development of BE by identifying and understanding its modifiable and non-modifiable risk factors may help reduce the incidence of EAC. Over the recent past, a tremendous amount of progress has been made towards improving our knowledge of risk factors and pathogenesis of BE. This article reviews the evidence for the various risk factors for developing BE.

Gender difference in gastro-esophageal reflux diseases

The incidence of esophageal adenocarcinoma (EAC) has risen sharply in western countries over the past 4 decades. This type of cancer is considered to follow a transitional process that goes from gastro-esophageal reflux disease (GERD) to Barrett's esophagus (BE, a metaplastic condition of the distal esophagus), a precursor lesion and ultimately adenocarcinoma. This spectrum of GERD is strongly predominant in males due to an unidentified mechanism. Several epidemiologic studies have described that the prevalence of GERD, BE and EAC in women is closely related to reproductive status, which suggests a possible association with the estrogen level. Recently, we revealed in an in vivo study that the inactivation of mast cells by the anti-inflammatory function of estrogen may account for the gender difference in the GERD spectrum. Other studies have described the contribution of female steroid hormones to the gender difference in these diseases. Estrogen is reported to modulate the metabolism of fat, and obesity is a main risk factor of GERDs. Moreover, estrogen could confer esophageal epithelial resistance to causative refluxate. These functions of estrogen might explain the approximately 20-year delay in the incidence of BE and the subsequent development of EAC in women compared to men, and this effect may be responsible for the male predominance. However, some observational studies demonstrated that hormone replacement therapy exerts controversial effects in GERD patients. Nevertheless, the estrogen-related endocrine milieu may prevent disease progression toward carcinogenesis in GERD patients. The development of innovative alternatives to conventional acid suppressors may become possible by clarifying the mechanisms of estrogen.

Increased risk of microscopic colitis with use of proton pump inhibitors and non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs

OBJECTIVES

Microscopic colitis (MC) is characterized by chronic watery diarrhea. Recently, several drugs were reported to increase the risk of MC. However, studies lacked a clear exposure definition, did not address duration relationships, and did not take important biases into account. We estimated the risk of MC during drug use.

METHODS

This is a population-based nested case-control study using a Dutch primary care database (1999-2013). Incident MC cases (aged ≥18 years) were matched to community-based and colonoscopy-negative controls on age, sex, and primary care practice. Drug use was assessed within 1 and 2 years before the index date. Adjusted odds ratios (OR) were calculated by conditional logistic regression.

RESULTS

From the source population of 1,458,410 subjects, 218 cases were matched to 15,045 community controls and 475 colonoscopy-negative controls. Current use (≤3 months) of proton pump inhibitors (PPIs), nonsteroidal anti-inflammatory drugs (NSAIDs), selective serotonin reuptake inhibitors, low-dose aspirin, angiotensin-converting enzyme (ACE) inhibitors and beta-blockers significantly increased the risk of MC compared with never use in community controls. Adjusted ORs ranged from 2.5 (95% confidence interval (CI): 1.5-4.2) for ACE inhibitors to 7.3 (95% CI: 4.5-12.1) for PPIs in the year prior to the index date. After accounting for diagnostic delay, only use of NSAIDs, PPIs, low-dose aspirin, and ACE inhibitors increased the risk of MC. Compared with colonoscopy controls, only use of PPIs (OR-adjusted 10.6; 1.8-64.2) and NSAIDs (OR-adjusted 5.6; 1.2-27.0) increased the risk of MC.

CONCLUSIONS

NSAIDs and PPIs are associated with an increased risk of MC. The association of MC with use of the other drugs is probably explained by worsening of diarrhea/symptoms rather than increasing the risk of MC itself.

The epidemiology, diagnosis, and treatment of Barrett's carcinoma

BACKGROUND

Roughly 3000 new cases of Barrett's carcinoma arise in Germany each year. In view of recent advances in the epidemiology, diagnosis, and treatment of this disease, an update of the clinical recommendations is in order.

METHODS

This review is based on selected relevant publications, including current reviews, meta-analyses, and guidelines.

RESULTS

The risk of progression of Barrett's esophagus to carcinoma lies between 0.10% and 0.15% per year. Risk factors for progression include male sex, age over 50 years, obesity, longstanding and frequent reflux symptoms, smoking, length of the Barrett's esophagus, and intraepithelial neoplasia. Well-differentiated carcinomas that are confined to the esophageal mucosa can be resected endoscopically with a cure rate above 90%. For more advanced, but still locally confined tumors, surgical resection is the treatment of choice. In stages cT3/4, the prognosis can be improved with neo-adjuvant chemo - therapy or combined radiotherapy and chemotherapy. Metastatic Barrett's carcinoma can be treated by endoscopic, chemotherapeutic, radiotherapeutic, and palliative methods.

CONCLUSION

Early carcinoma can often be cured by endoscopic resection. Locally advanced carcinoma calls for multimodal treatment. Current research focuses on means of preventing the progression of Barrett's esophagus, the scope of applicability of endoscopic techniques, and the optimization of multimodal treatment strategies for advanced disease.

Global incidence of oesophageal cancer by histological subtype in 2012

OBJECTIVE

The two major histological types of oesophageal cancer--adenocarcinoma (AC) and squamous cell carcinoma (SCC)--are known to differ greatly in terms of risk factors and epidemiology. To date, global incidence estimates for individual subtypes are still lacking. This study for the first time quantified the global burden of oesophageal cancer by histological subtype.

DESIGN

Where available, data from Cancer Incidence in Five Continents Vol. X (CI5X) were used to compute, age-specific, sex-specific and country-specific proportions of AC and SCC. Nine regional averages were computed for countries without CI5X data. The proportions were then applied to all oesophageal cancer cases from GLOBOCAN 2012 and age-standardised incidence rates calculated for both histological types.

RESULTS

Worldwide, an estimated 398,000 SCCs and 52,000 ACs of the oesophagus occurred in 2012, translating to incidence rates of 5.2 and 0.7 per 100,000, respectively. Although SCCs were most common in South-Eastern and Central Asia (79% of the total global SCC cases), the highest burden of AC was found in Northern and Western Europe, Northern America and Oceania (46% of the total global AC cases). Men had substantially higher incidence than women, especially in the case of AC (male to female ratio AC: 4.4; SCC: 2.7).

CONCLUSIONS

These first global estimates of oesophageal cancer incidence by histology suggested a high concentration of AC in high-income countries with men being at much greater risk. This quantification of incidence will aid health policy makers to plan appropriate cancer control measures in the future.

NSAIDs, statins, low-dose aspirin and PPIs, and the risk of oesophageal adenocarcinoma among patients with Barrett's oesophagus: a population-based case-control study

OBJECTIVES

Non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs (NSAIDs), proton pump inhibitors (PPIs), low-dose aspirin and statins may decrease the risk of oesophageal adenocarcinoma (OAC) among patients with Barrett's oesophagus (BO). However, previous studies did not adequately address bias and confounding. Our objective was to estimate the risk of OAC among patients with BO exposed to NSAIDs, statins and PPIs.

DESIGN

Case-control study nested within a BO cohort.

SETTING

Two primary care databases (the UK and the Netherlands (NL)).

PARTICIPANTS

Cases were adults ≥18 years of age with OAC or high-grade dysplasia (HGD) diagnosis ≥1 year after BO diagnosis. Controls were matched on age, sex, year of BO diagnosis and database.

EXPOSURE

Drug use was assessed from BO diagnosis until matching date.

OUTCOME MEASURE

Adjusted ORs with 95% CI were calculated by conditional logistic regression.

RESULTS

Within the BO cohort (n=15 134), 45 OAC (UK: 40, NL: 5) and 12 HGD cases (NL: 12) were identified. ORa for OAC during NSAID use was 1.2 (95% CI 0.6 to 2.5) and during statin use for >3 years 0.5 (95% CI 0.1 to 1.7). When including HGD cases (n=57), ORa for NSAID use was 0.9 (95% CI 0.5 to 1.8) and for statin use >3 years 0.5 (95% CI 0.1 to 1.7). Higher doses of statins showed lower estimates for OAC and HGD, though not statistically significant. Low-dose aspirin and PPIs did not significantly decrease the risk of OAC and HGD.

CONCLUSIONS

In this population-based nested case-control study, use of NSAIDs, PPIs, low-dose aspirin or statins did not reduce the risk of HGD and OAC among patients with BO. These findings indicate that for an unselected group of patients with BO chemoprevention by use of drugs to reduce progression to HGD and OAC should not be directly considered as routine care.