Trends in deforestation and forest degradation after a decade of monitoring in the Monarch Butterfly Biosphere Reserve in Mexico

Population dynamics and drivers of the eastern monarch (Danaus plexippus) across its full annual cycle: a cross-scale synthesis of a model migratory species

The monarch butterfly is arguably the best-known butterfly species throughout its global range. Declines in the size of the overwintering colonies in Mexico have sparked controversy regarding the conservation of the species and this controversy has been heightened since the United States Fish and Wildlife Service and International Union for the Conservation of Nature concluded that the eastern monarch populations were threatened (or in the case of United States Fish and Wildlife Service, warranted listing). Drivers of decline vary through space and time. Here, we present a synthesis of longitudinal monarch abundance studies that aim to disentangle the putative drivers of decline from one another. We find remarkable consistency that suggests monarch populations are indeed declining and that potential drivers of such decline shift over time. We strongly encourage future work on the species paired with mechanistic, experimental designs to address some long-standing knowledge gaps.

The monarch butterfly in Mexico: a conservation model

Each fall, millions of monarch butterflies (Danaus plexippus L.) travel from Canada and the United States to overwinter in Mexico and California. In 2022, the IUCN listed migratory monarchs as endangered because of their population decline. The main accepted drivers are widespread use of herbicides, effects of climate, and land use change that causes habitat loss. We analyzed the main actions taken to officially protect the overwintering sites and the migration phenomenon with the establishment of the Monarch Butterfly Biosphere Reserve in 2000. The conservation of the monarch overwintering sites in Mexico is an example of continuous work from their discovery to the present. We highlight the importance of monitoring the areas covered by overwintering monarchs in Mexico. These colonies represent the largest concentrations of monarch populations in the world. In the last 10 years, the average area covered by monarchs was 2.72 ( ± 0.47 SE) hectares.

Lack of evidence for a fine‐scale magnetic map sense for fall migratory Eastern North American monarch butterflies ( Danaus plexippus )

How first‐time animal migrants find specific destinations remains an intriguing ecological question. Migratory marine species use geomagnetic map cues acquired as juveniles to aide long‐distance migration, but less is known for long‐distance migrants in other taxa. We test the hypothesis that naïve Eastern North American fall migratory monarch butterflies (Danaus plexippus), a species that possesses a magnetic sense, locate their overwintering sites in Central Mexico using inherited geomagnetic map cues. We examined whether overwintering locations and the abundance of monarchs changed with the natural shift of Earth's magnetic field from 2004 to 2018. We found that migratory monarchs continued to overwinter at established sites in similar abundance despite significant shifts in the geomagnetic field, which is inconsistent with monarchs using fine‐scale geomagnetic map cues to find overwintering sites. It is more likely that monarchs use geomagnetic cues to assess migratory direction rather than location and use other cues to locate overwintering sites.

The Restoration of Degraded Lands by Local Communities and Indigenous Peoples

One of Earth's foremost ecological challenges is the degradation of land habitats. This degradation is often caused by deforestation and desertification resulting from the unsustainable management of natural resources. Land restoration seeks to reverse this trend and repair ecosystems to better health. Indigenous peoples and local communities have a key role in realizing long-term, sustainable land restoration. Local and indigenous communities often have intimate knowledge of the local ecosystems and an interest in preserving ecosystem services. Areas managed by indigenous peoples and local communities especially overlap with remaining intact ecosystems and suffer from less deforestation than unprotected areas. Here, we discuss how the knowledge and engagement of local communities can improve the management, implementation, and monitoring of habitat restoration. However, there are also challenges to land restoration, and scientists and policymakers that can align restoration outcomes with community benefits gained from environmental stewardship and knowledge, are more likely to achieve long-term sustainable restoration success.

Long-term monitoring indicates shifting fall migration timing in monarch butterflies (Danaus plexippus)

Eastern North American monarch butterflies (Danaus plexippus) embark on a yearly migration between summer breeding grounds in the northern United States and southern Canada and overwintering sites in central Mexico, traveling up to 4300 km. This annual multi-generational migration cycle, like many seasonal natural phenomena, may be impacted by recent changes in climate and habitat. We investigated long-term trends in monarch abundance and fall migration timing over a 29-year period in Cape May, New Jersey, using data collected from daily population surveys designed to track patterns of occurrence during the fall migration period through Cape May (1 Sept-31 Oct). Between 1992 and 2020, the migration midpoint, average peak migration day and first peak migration day shifted between 16 and 19 days later in the season, an average of approximately six days per decade. This observed shift in migration timing is correlated with increasing temperatures in September and October in northeastern monarch breeding grounds over the study period. Our data do not demonstrate a significant directional trend in monarch abundance over the study period, yet population data collected at overwintering sites in Mexico indicate a substantial decline over the same period. Further postponement of fall migration may lead to lower migration success and exacerbate the overall decline of this iconic species.

Changes in the constituents of the "Bosque de Agua" of the Sierra Cruces-Ajusco-Chichinautzín, Mexico, an area with payment for environmental services

The "Bosque de Agua", to the west and south of Mexico City, which is the fifth largest city in the world, has historically suffered disturbances in forest cover, with a consequent reduction in the environmental services provided. Changes in the state of the forests between 1994 and 2017 are here analyzed in terms of the annual net change in area of the different cover densities and the different change processes. In general, the net change was favorable in all cases: forest improvement vs. forest degradation, reforestation vs. deforestation, and afforestation vs. land use change. There were changes in 16.03% of the Bosque de Agua: recovery in 11.09% and disturbance in 4.94%. This marked recovery is the result of the protected status of two-thirds of the forest, the payment for hydrological environmental services in 29.33% of the forest, as of 2003, and the continuous programs of reforestation, fire control and surveillance by the local communities, circumstances that have allowed the recovery to exceed the disturbance in most of the Bosque de Agua. One-third of the forest disturbance is concentrated in six of the 35 municipalities in the southern region, caused by clandestine logging by organized gangs, due to the state of ungovernability that reigns in these municipalities.

SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s12665-021-10025-w.

Synergies and trade-offs among integrated conservation approaches in Mexico

Integrated conservation approaches (ICAs) are employed by governments, communities, and nongovernmental organizations worldwide seeking to achieve outcomes with dual benefits for biodiversity conservation and poverty alleviation. Although ICAs are frequently implemented concurrently, interactions among ICAs and the synergies or trade-offs that result are rarely considered during program design, implementation, and evaluation. In support of more deliberate and effective use of ICAs, we examined interactions among four well-known strategies: biosphere reserves (BRs), voluntary protected areas (VPAs), payments for ecosystem services (PES), and community forest management (CFM). Through a comparative case study, we analyzed interactions among spatially or temporally clustered ICAs implemented on communally held and managed lands in three ecologically and socioeconomically distinct regions of Mexico. Our research methods combined policy analysis with data gathered through participant observation and semistructured interviews (n = 78) and focus groups (n = 5) with government officials, implementers, and participants involved in ICAs in 28 communities. Despite the significant differences among the regions in which they were implemented, we found that key actors at each level of involvement generally perceived interactions among ICAs as synergistic. The PES programs were perceived to strengthen protected areas by reducing forest cover loss in and around BRs, fostering proconservation attitudes, and incentivizing the establishment of VPAs. Communities that invested PES income in CFM were motivated to conserve forests beyond the duration of PES programs, and CFM in buffer zones was perceived to strengthen BRs by maintaining forest cover and generating income for communities. We also identified key social and environmental factors that can influence these interaction effects among ICAs. Based on these findings, we recommend further study of ICA interactions and intentionally complementary policy design to maximize positive environmental and social outcomes.

Changes in climate drive recent monarch butterfly dynamics

Declines in the abundance and diversity of insects pose a substantial threat to terrestrial ecosystems worldwide. Yet, identifying the causes of these declines has proved difficult, even for well-studied species like monarch butterflies, whose eastern North American population has decreased markedly over the last three decades. Three hypotheses have been proposed to explain the changes observed in the eastern monarch population: loss of milkweed host plants from increased herbicide use, mortality during autumn migration and/or early-winter resettlement and changes in breeding-season climate. Here, we use a hierarchical modelling approach, combining data from >18,000 systematic surveys to evaluate support for each of these hypotheses over a 25-yr period. Between 2004 and 2018, breeding-season weather was nearly seven times more important than other factors in explaining variation in summer population size, which was positively associated with the size of the subsequent overwintering population. Although data limitations prevent definitive evaluation of the factors governing population size between 1994 and 2003 (the period of the steepest monarch decline coinciding with a widespread increase in herbicide use), breeding-season weather was similarly identified as an important driver of monarch population size. If observed changes in spring and summer climate continue, portions of the current breeding range may become inhospitable for monarchs. Our results highlight the increasingly important contribution of a changing climate to insect declines.

The Monarch Butterfly as a Model for Understanding the Role of Environmental Sensory Cues in Long-Distance Migratory Phenomena

The awe-inspiring annual migration of monarch butterflies (Danaus plexippus) is an iconic example of long-distance migratory phenomena in which environmental sensory cues help drive successful migration. In this mini-review article, I begin by describing how studies on monarch migration can provide us with generalizable information on how sensory cues can mediate key aspects of animal movement. I describe how environmental sensory cues can trigger the development and progression of the monarch migration, as well as inform sensory-based movement mechanisms in order to travel to and reach their goal destination, despite monarchs being on their maiden voyage. I also describe how sensory cues can trigger season-appropriate changes in migratory direction during the annual cycle. I conclude this mini-review article by discussing how contemporary environmental challenges threaten the persistence of the monarch migration. Environmental challenges such as climate change and shifting land use can significantly alter the sensory environments that monarchs migrate through, as well as degrade or eliminate the sources of sensory cues that are necessary for successful migration.

Assessment of the Local Perceptions on the Drivers of Deforestation and Forest Degradation, Agents of Drivers, and Appropriate Activities in Cambodia

Understanding the drivers of deforestation and forest degradation and the agents of such drivers is important for introducing appropriate policy interventions. Here, we identified drivers and agents of drivers through the analysis of local perceptions using questionnaire surveys, focus group discussions, and field observations. The Likert scale technique was employed for designing the questionnaire with scores ranging from 1 (strongly disagree) to 5 (strongly agree). We found nine direct drivers of forest deforestation and forest degradation, namely illegal logging (4.53 ± 0.60, ± is for standard deviation), commercial wood production (4.20 ± 0.71), land clearing for commercial agriculture (4.19 ± 1.15), charcoal production (3.60 ± 1.12), land clearing for subsistence agriculture (3.54 ± 0.75), new settlement and land migration (3.43 ± 0.81), natural disasters (3.31 ± 0.96), human-induced forest fires (3.25 ± 0.96), and fuelwood for domestic consumption (3.21 ± 0.77). We also found four main indirect drivers, namely lack of law enforcement, demand for timber, land tenure right, and population growth. Our analysis indicates that wood furniture makers, medium and large-scale agricultural investors, charcoal makers, land migrants, firewood collectors, and subsistent farmers were the agents of these drivers. Through focus group discussions, 12 activities were agreed upon and could be introduced to reduce these drivers. In addition to enforcing the laws, creating income-generating opportunities for locals along with the provision of environmental education could ensure long-term reduction of these drivers. The REDD+ project could be an option for creating local income opportunities, while reducing deforestation and forest degradation.

Modification of Fire Regimes Inferred from the Age Structure of Two Conifer Species in a Tropical Montane Forest, Mexico

Research Highlights: Age structure was used to infer fire regimes in the Monarch Butterfly Biosphere Reserve. Uneven-aged structures in stands dominated and co-dominated by pine and fir species, which are distributed according to an altitudinal gradient, indicated a regime of frequent, low-severity, and low-intensity fires. Background and Objectives: Age structure analyses have been used to infer natural and disrupted fire regimes when field-based descriptions of fires are scarce or unavailable. In montane conifer forests, fire regimes typically vary according to an altitudinal gradient, shaping contrasting tree establishment patterns. In the Monarch Butterfly Biosphere Reserve, Mexico, the altitudinal distribution and fire regimes of sacred fir forests (Abies religiosa), smooth-bark Mexican pine forests (Pinus pseudostrobus), and mixed-conifer forests are poorly documented. The objectives of this study were to determine the altitudinal ranges occupied by mono-dominant and co-dominant stands and to reconstruct tree establishment history to infer historical fire regimes. Materials and Methods: Six altitudinal transects were established along the reserve, each one at elevations from 2400 to 3300 m, with sampling sites at every 150 m of elevation. In each site, increment cores were collected from the base of 25 mature trees. A total of 800 increment cores were collected and cross-dated. Results: P. pseudostrobus is dominant in stands between 2400 and 2850 m, A. religiosa between 3150 and 3300 m, and both species co-dominate between 2850 and 3150 m. The establishment pattern for both species has been continuous, represented by uneven-aged structures, suggesting that tree establishment in smooth-bark Mexican pine forests, mixed-conifer forests, and sacred fir forests, is likely to be associated with frequent, low-severity, and low-intensity fires. Conclusions: These fire regimes suggest, by the one hand, the disruption of natural fire regimes by human activities, limiting the occurrence of high-severity fires; on the other hand, a distinctive feature of these tropical montane forests.

Genomic evidence for gene flow between monarchs with divergent migratory phenotypes and flight performance

Monarch butterflies are known for their spectacular annual migration in eastern North America, with millions of monarchs flying up to 4,500 km to overwintering sites in central Mexico. Monarchs also live west of the Rocky Mountains, where they travel shorter distances to overwinter along the Pacific Coast. It is often assumed that eastern and western monarchs form distinct evolutionary units, but genomic studies to support this notion are lacking. We used a tethered flight mill to show that migratory eastern monarchs have greater flight performance than western monarchs, consistent with their greater migratory distances. However, analysing more than 20 million SNPs in 43 monarch genomes, we found no evidence for genomic differentiation between eastern and western monarchs. Genomic analysis also showed identical and low levels of genetic diversity, and demographic analyses indicated similar effective population sizes and ongoing gene flow between eastern and western monarchs. Gene expression analysis of a subset of candidate genes during active flight revealed differential gene expression related to nonmuscular motor activity. Our results demonstrate that eastern and western monarchs maintain migratory differences despite ongoing gene flow, and suggest that migratory differences between eastern and western monarchs are not driven by select major-effects alleles. Instead, variation in migratory distance and destination may be driven by environmentally induced differential gene expression or by many alleles of small effect.

Characterizing New Wintering Sites for Monarch Butterfly Colonies in Sierra Nevada, Mexico

Every year, Danaus plexippus (Linnaeus, 1758) travels to hibernate in oyamel fir forests located between the limits of the states of Michoacán and Mexico in Mexico. Climate change and anthropogenic actions are diminishing oyamel fir forests in Mexico, putting pressure on the habitats of monarch butterflies. In the last decade, new colonies outside their usual range have been predicted through modeling and reported by the National Commission on Protected Areas of Mexico. The objectives of the study were to recover information on the historical and new hibernation sites, reported or modeled, from different literature sources. We also aimed to perform a bioclimatic and forest biometric characterization of new monarch butterfly colonies located in Sierra Nevada in Mexico to provide information to aid in conservation strategies for the monarch butterfly population. We conducted field trips to georeference the colonies at sites located in the Atlautla municipality in Mexico State. Climatic, topographic, and forest biometric variables were used to characterize the sites physically. It was found that the butterfly’s roosts occurred at a higher elevation than those recorded by other sources. The locations where the monarch’s colonies were established, in the east of Mexico State, provide information relevant to defining and developing policies for their conservation.

Forest Degradation Assessment Based on Trend Analysis of MODIS-Leaf Area Index: A Case Study in Mexico

: Assessing forest degradation has been a challenging task due to the generally slow-changing nature of the process, which demands long periods of observation and high frequency of records. This research contributes to efforts aimed at detecting forest degradation by analyzing the trend component of the time series of Leaf Area Index (LAI) collected by the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) over Central Mexico from 2002 to 2017. The analysis of the trend component is proposed to overcome the challenge of identifying very subtle and gradual changes that can be undetected if only the raw time series is examined. Additionally, the use of LAI as an alternative to other widely used indexes (e.g., Normalize Difference Vegetation Index and Enhanced Vegetation Index) facilitates consideration of the structural changes evident from degradation though not necessarily observable with spectral indices. Overall, results indicate that 52% of the study area has experienced positive trends of vegetation change (i.e., increasing LAI), 37% has remained unchanged, and 11% exhibits some level of forest degradation. Particularly, the algorithm estimated that 0.6% (385 km2) is highly degraded, 5.3% (3406 km2) moderately degraded, and 5.1% (3245 km2) slightly degraded. Most of the moderate and highly degraded areas are distributed over the east side of the study area and evergreen broadleaf appears to be the most affected forest type. Model validation resulted an accuracy of 63%. Some actions to improve this accuracy are suggested, but also a different approach to validate this type of study is suggested as an area of opportunity for future research.

Challenges for Monitoring the Extent and Land Use/Cover Changes in Monarch Butterflies’ Migratory Habitat across the United States and Mexico

This paper presents a synopsis of the challenges and limitations presented by existing and emerging land use/land cover (LULC) digital data sets when used to analyze the extent, habitat quality, and LULC changes of the monarch (Danaus plexippus) migratory habitat across the United States of America (US) and Mexico. First, the characteristics, state of the knowledge, and issues related to this habitat are presented. Then, the characteristics of the existing and emerging LULC digital data sets with global or cross-border coverage are listed, followed by the data sets that cover only the US or Mexico. Later, we discuss the challenges for determining the extent, habitat quality, and LULC changes in the monarchs’ migratory habitat when using these LULC data sets in conjunction with the current state of the knowledge of the monarchs’ ecology, behavior, and foraging/roosting plants used during their migration. We point to approaches to address some of these challenges, which can be categorized into: (a) LULC data set characteristics and availability; (b) availability of ancillary land management information; (c) ability to construct accurate forage suitability indices for their migration habitat; and (d) level of knowledge of the ecological and behavioral patterns of the monarchs during their journey.

Demystifying Monarch Butterfly Migration

Every fall, millions of North American monarch butterflies undergo a stunning long-distance migration to reach their overwintering grounds in Mexico. Migration allows the butterflies to escape freezing temperatures and dying host plants, and reduces infections with a virulent parasite. We discuss the multigenerational migration journey and its evolutionary history, and highlight the navigational mechanisms of migratory monarchs. Monarchs use a bidirectional time-compensated sun compass for orientation, which is based on a time-compensating circadian clock that resides in the antennae, and which has a distinctive molecular mechanism. Migrants can also use a light-dependent inclination magnetic compass for orientation under overcast conditions. Additional environmental features, e.g., atmospheric conditions, geologic barriers, and social interactions, likely augment navigation. The publication of the monarch genome and the development of gene-editing strategies have enabled the dissection of the genetic and neurobiological basis of the migration. The monarch butterfly has emerged as an excellent system to study the ecological, neural, and genetic basis of long-distance animal migration.

Predators of monarch butterfly eggs and neonate larvae are more diverse than previously recognised

Conserving threatened organisms requires knowledge of the factors impacting their populations. The Eastern monarch butterfly (Danaus plexippus L.) has declined by as much as 80% in the past two decades and conservation biologists are actively seeking to understand and reverse this decline. While it is well known that most monarchs die as eggs and young larvae, few studies have focused on identifying what arthropod taxa contribute to these losses. The aim of our study was to identify previously undocumented predators of immature monarchs in their summer breeding range in the United States. Using no-choice feeding assays augmented with field observations, we evaluated 75 arthropod taxa commonly found on the primary host plant for their propensity to consume immature monarchs. Here we report 36 previously unreported monarch predators, including representatives from 4 new orders (Orthoptera, Dermaptera, Lepidoptera and Opiliones) and 11 taxa (Acrididae, Gryllidae, Tettigoniidae, Forficulidae, Anthocoridae, Geocoridae, Lygaeidae, Miridae, Nabidae, Erebidae and Opilliones). Surprisingly, several putative herbivores were found to readily consume immature monarchs, both in a targeted fashion or incidentally as a result of herbivory. This work expands our understanding of the monarch predator community and highlights the importance of unrecognized predation on insects of conservation concern.

Why are monarch butterflies declining in the West? Understanding the importance of multiple correlated drivers

Understanding the factors associated with declines of at-risk species is an important first step in setting management and recovery targets. This step can be challenging when multiple aspects of climate and land use are changing simultaneously, and any or all could be contributing to population declines. We analyzed population trends of monarch butterflies in western North America in relation to likely environmental drivers. Unlike the larger eastern monarch population, past analyses of western monarchs have only evaluated the importance of climate (i.e., not land use) factors as drivers of abundance. We used partial least squares regression (PLSR) to evaluate the potential importance of changes in land use and climate variables. Trends in western monarch abundance were more strongly associated with land use variables than climate variables. Conclusions about importance of climate and land use variables were robust to changes in PLSR model structure. However, individual variables were too collinear to unambiguously separate their effects. We compared these conclusions to the more widely used technique of multiple regression, followed by multi-model inference (MRMI). Naïve interpretation of MRMI results could be misleading, if collinearity were not taken into account. MRMI was also highly sensitive to variation in model construction. Our results suggest a two-pronged approach to monarch conservation, specifically, starting efforts now to restore habitat, while also using experiments to more clearly delineate separate effects of climate and land use factors. They also demonstrate the utility of PLSR, a technique that is growing in use but is still relatively under-appreciated in conservation biology.

Neotropical cloud forests and páramo to contract and dry from declines in cloud immersion and frost

Clouds persistently engulf many tropical mountains at elevations cool enough for clouds to form, creating isolated areas with frequent fog and mist. Under these isolated conditions, thousands of unique species have evolved in what are known as tropical montane cloud forests (TMCF) and páramo. Páramo comprises a set of alpine ecosystems that occur above TMCF from about 11° N to 9° S along the Americas continental divide. TMCF occur on all continents and island chains with tropical climates and mountains and are increasingly threatened by climate and land-use change. Climate change could impact a primary feature distinguishing these ecosystems, cloud immersion. But where and in what direction cloud immersion of TMCF and páramo will change with climate are fundamental unknowns. Prior studies at a few TMCF sites suggest that cloud immersion will increase in some places while declining in others. Other unknowns include the extent of deforestation in protected and unprotected cloud forest climatic zones, and deforestation extent compared with projected climate change. Here we use a new empirical approach combining relative humidity, frost, and novel application of maximum watershed elevation to project change in TMCF and páramo for Representative greenhouse gas emissions Concentration Pathways (RCPs) 4.5 and 8.5. Results suggest that in <25–45 yr, 70–86% of páramo will dry or be subject to tree invasion, and cloud immersion declines will shrink or dry 57–80% of Neotropical TMCF, including 100% of TMCF across Mexico, Central America, the Caribbean, much of Northern South America, and parts of Southeast Brazil. These estimates rise to 86% of Neotropical TMCF and 98% of páramo in <45–65 yr if greenhouse gas emissions continue rising throughout the 21^st century. We also find that TMCF zones are largely forested, but some of the most deforested areas will undergo the least climate change. We project that cloud immersion will increase for only about 1% of all TMCF and in only a few places. Declines in cloud immersion dominate TMCF change across the Neotropics.

Multiscale seasonal factors drive the size of winter monarch colonies

Monarch butterflies in eastern North America have declined by 84% on Mexican wintering grounds since the observed peak in 1996. However, coarse-scale population indices from northern US breeding grounds do not show a consistent downward trend. This discrepancy has led to speculation that autumn migration may be a critical limiting period. We address this hypothesis by examining the role of multiscale processes impacting monarchs during autumn, assessed using arrival abundances at all known winter colony sites over a 12-y period (2004-2015). We quantified effects of continental-scale (climate, landscape greenness, and disease) and local-scale (colony habitat quality) drivers of spatiotemporal trends in winter colony sizes. We also included effects of peak summer and migratory population indices. Our results demonstrate that higher summer abundance on northern breeding grounds led to larger winter colonies as did greener autumns, a proxy for increased nectar availability in southern US floral corridors. Colony sizes were also positively correlated with the amount of local dense forest cover and whether they were located within the Monarch Butterfly Biosphere Reserve, but were not influenced by disease rates. Although we demonstrate a demographic link between summer and fine-scale winter population sizes, we also reveal that conditions experienced during, and at the culmination of, autumn migration impact annual dynamics. Monarchs face a growing threat if floral resources and winter habitat availability diminish under climate change. Our study tackles a long-standing gap in the monarch's annual cycle and highlights the importance of evaluating migratory conditions to understand mechanisms governing long-term population trends.

Testing the effectiveness of conservation management within biosphere reserves: the case of the Mexican deer mouse (Peromyscus mexicanus) as a bioindicator

Biosphere reserves are protected areas whose purpose is to combine conservation and sustainable development. However, their effectiveness has not been tested sufficiently, especially from an ecological and genetic approach. In this sense, the Peromyscus genus represents an excellent bioindicator to address these questions, due to its short life and high evolutionary rate and fecundity. For conservation managers, genetic structure can increase the rate of loss of genetic diversity because alleles exclusive of a subpopulation are more likely to disappear as a consequence of genetic drift in comparison with a panmictic population. Here we analyzed the abundance, movement distances, morphology/morphometry and genetic structure of 3 populations of Mexican deer mouse (Peromyscus mexicanus) located in different protected zones of La Tigra National Park (Honduras). Our results are consistent among the 3 approaches and showed the highest values of abundance, morphometry and genetic diversity in the population located at the core zone, whereas non-statistically significant differences were found between buffer and transition zone populations, suggesting suitable effectiveness of conservation management in the core zone but a lack of ecological buffering function of the other zones. In addition, the low movement distances and high genetic structure among the studied populations provide evidence of poor conservation management in the buffer and transition zone. Thus, we discuss the utility of the novel methodology used in this work, combining morphometry, abundance and genetics, in testing the effectiveness of conservation strategies in biosphere reserves, and the value of the Peromyscus genus as a bioindicator.

Monarchs in decline: a collateral landscape-level effect of modern agriculture

We review the postulated threatening processes that may have affected the decline in the eastern population of the monarch butterfly, Danaus plexippus L. (Lepidoptera: Nymphalidae), in North America. Although there are likely multiple contributing factors, such as climate and resource-related effects on breeding, migrating, and overwintering populations, the key landscape-level change appears to be associated with the widespread use of genetically modified herbicide resistant crops that have rapidly come to dominate the extensive core summer breeding range. We dismiss misinterpretations of the apparent lack of population change in summer adult count data as logically flawed. Glyphosate-tolerant soybean and maize have enabled the extensive use of this herbicide, generating widespread losses of milkweed (Asclepias spp.), the only host plants for monarch larvae. Modeling studies that simulate lifetime realized fecundity at a landscape scale, direct counts of milkweeds, and extensive citizen science data across the breeding range suggest that a herbicide-induced, landscape-level reduction in milkweed has precipitated the decline in monarchs. A recovery will likely require a monumental effort for the re-establishment of milkweed resources at a commensurate landscape scale.

Anthropogenic Impacts on Mortality and Population Viability of the Monarch Butterfly

Monarch butterflies (Danaus plexippus) are familiar herbivores of milkweeds of the genus Asclepias, and most monarchs migrate each year to locate these host plants across North American ecosystems now dominated by agriculture. Eastern migrants overwinter in high-elevation forests in Mexico, and western monarchs overwinter in trees on the coast of California. Both populations face three primary threats to their viability: (a) loss of milkweed resources for larvae due to genetically modified crops, pesticides, and fertilizers; (b) loss of nectar resources from flowering plants; and (c) degraded overwintering forest habitats due to commercially motivated deforestation and other economic activities. Secondary threats to population viability include (d) climate change effects on milkweed host plants and the dynamics of breeding, overwintering, and migration; (e) the influence of invasive plants and natural enemies; (f) habitat fragmentation and coalescence that promote homogeneous, species-depleted landscapes; and (g) deliberate culture and release of monarchs and invasive milkweeds.

Monarch butterfly population decline in North America: identifying the threatening processes

The monarch butterfly (Danaus plexippus) population in North America has sharply declined over the last two decades. Despite rising concern over the monarch butterfly's status, no comprehensive study of the factors driving this decline has been conducted. Using partial least-squares regressions and time-series analysis, we investigated climatic and habitat-related factors influencing monarch population size from 1993 to 2014. Potential threats included climatic factors, habitat loss (milkweed and overwinter forest), disease and agricultural insecticide use (neonicotinoids). While climatic factors, principally breeding season temperature, were important determinants of annual variation in abundance, our results indicated strong negative relationships between population size and habitat loss variables, principally glyphosate use, but also weaker negative effects from the loss of overwinter forest and breeding season use of neonicotinoids. Further declines in population size because of glyphosate application are not expected. Thus, if remaining threats to habitat are mitigated we expect climate-induced stochastic variation of the eastern migratory population of monarch butterfly around a relatively stationary population size.

Population Genetics of Overwintering Monarch Butterflies, Danaus plexippus (Linnaeus), from Central Mexico Inferred from Mitochondrial DNA and Microsatellite Markers

Population genetic variation and demographic history in Danaus plexippus (L.), from Mexico were assessed based on analyses of mitochondrial cytochrome c oxidase subunit I (COI; 658 bp) and subunit II (COII; 503 bp) gene segments and 7 microsatellite loci. The sample of 133 individuals included both migratory monarchs, mainly from 4 overwintering sites within the Monarch Butterfly Biosphere Reserve (MBBR) in central Mexico (states of Michoacán and México), and a nonmigratory population from Irapuato, Guanajuato. Haplotype (h) and nucleotide (π) diversities were relatively low, averaging 0.466 and 0.00073, respectively, for COI, and 0.629 and 0.00245 for COII. Analysis of molecular variance of the COI data set, which included additional GenBank sequences from a nonmigratory Costa Rican population, showed significant population structure between Mexican migratory monarchs and nonmigratory monarchs from both Mexico and Costa Rica, suggesting limited gene flow between the 2 behaviorally distinct groups. Interestingly, while the COI haplotype frequencies of the nonmigratory populations differed from the migratory, they were similar to each other, despite the great physical distance between them. Microsatellite analyses, however, suggested a lack of structure between the 2 groups, possibly owing to the number of significant deviations from Hardy–Weinberg equilibrium resulting from heterzoygote deficiencies found for most of the loci. Estimates of demographic history of the combined migratory MBBR monarch population, based on the mismatch distribution and Bayesian skyline analyses of the concatenated COI and COII data set (n = 89) suggested a population expansion dating to the late Pleistocene (~35000–40000 years before present) followed by a stable effective female population size (N_ef) of about 6 million over the last 10000 years.

Density estimates of monarch butterflies overwintering in central Mexico

Given the rapid population decline and recent petition for listing of the monarch butterfly (Danaus plexippus L.) under the Endangered Species Act, an accurate estimate of the Eastern, migratory population size is needed. Because of difficulty in counting individual monarchs, the number of hectares occupied by monarchs in the overwintering area is commonly used as a proxy for population size, which is then multiplied by the density of individuals per hectare to estimate population size. There is, however, considerable variation in published estimates of overwintering density, ranging from 6.9–60.9 million ha⁻¹. We develop a probability distribution for overwinter density of monarch butterflies from six published density estimates. The mean density among the mixture of the six published estimates was ∼27.9 million butterflies ha⁻¹ (95% CI [2.4–80.7] million ha⁻¹); the mixture distribution is approximately log-normal, and as such is better represented by the median (21.1 million butterflies ha⁻¹). Based upon assumptions regarding the number of milkweed needed to support monarchs, the amount of milkweed (Asclepias spp.) lost (0.86 billion stems) in the northern US plus the amount of milkweed remaining (1.34 billion stems), we estimate >1.8 billion stems is needed to return monarchs to an average population size of 6 ha. Considerable uncertainty exists in this required amount of milkweed because of the considerable uncertainty occurring in overwinter density estimates. Nevertheless, the estimate is on the same order as other published estimates. The studies included in our synthesis differ substantially by year, location, method, and measures of precision. A better understanding of the factors influencing overwintering density across space and time would be valuable for increasing the precision of conservation recommendations.

Genetic structure and diversity in an isolated population of an endemic mole salamander (Ambystoma rivulare Taylor, 1940) of central Mexico

Human activities are affecting the distribution of species worldwide by causing fragmentation and isolation of populations. Isolation and fragmentation lead to populations with lower genetic variability and an increased chance of inbreeding and genetic drift, which results in a loss of biological fitness over time. Studies of the genetic structure of small and isolated populations are critically important for management and conservation decisions. Ambystoma rivulare is a micro-endemic Mexican mole salamander from central Mexico. It is found in the most ecologically disturbed region in Mexico, the Trans-Mexican Volcanic Belt. The goal of this study of the population genetics of the micro-endemic mole salamander was to provide information to be used as a basis for future research and conservation planning of this species and other species of the Ambystoma genus in Mexico. The structural analysis found two subpopulations, one for each river sampled, with no signs of admixture and very high levels of genetic differentiation. Medium to high levels of heterozygosity and few alleles and genotypes were observed. Evidence of an ancestral genetic bottleneck, low values of effective population size, small inbreeding coefficients, and low gene flow were also found.