Untangling the proximate causes and underlying drivers of deforestation and forest degradation in Myanmar

Future-proofing ecosystem restoration through enhancing adaptive capacity

Social-ecological ecosystem restoration involves interacting challenges, including climate change, resource overexploitation and political instability. To prepare for these and other emerging threats, we synthesized key restoration and social-ecological systems literature and derived three guiding themes that can help to enhance the adaptive capacity of restoration sites: (i) work with the existing system, (ii) create self-sustaining, adaptive systems, and (iii) foster diversity and participation. We propose a two-step approach and provide an example from Rwanda detailing the application of these principles. While site-specific activities have to be designed and implemented by local practitioners, our synthesis can guide forward-thinking restoration practice.

Reconciling policy instruments with drivers of deforestation and forest degradation: cross-scale analysis of stakeholder perceptions in tropical countries

Cross-scale studies combining information on policy instruments and on drivers of deforestation and forest degradation are key to design and implement effective forest protection measures. We investigated the scale and country dependency of stakeholder perceptions about future threats to tropical forests (e.g. agriculture, logging, woodfuel) and preferred policy instruments (e.g. reforestation, protected areas, combat illegal logging), by interviewing 224 representatives of forest-related institutions. We conducted analysis of variance and principal component analysis for eighteen variables across three countries (Zambia, Ecuador and the Philippines) and four spatial levels (from international to local). We found that the overall alertness about commercial drivers and the confidence in policy instruments are significantly lower at subnational levels and also in Zambia. Stakeholder expectations about the most important drivers and the most effective policies in the coming decade follow regional narratives, suggesting that there are no one-size-fits-all solutions in international forest policy. However, we found an unexpected consensus across scales, indicating potential for collaboration between institutions operating at different geographical levels. Overall, agriculture remains the driver with the highest expected influence (43%), while a strong favoritism for reforestation and forest restoration (38%) suggests a paradigm shift from protected areas to a stronger focus on integrative approaches.

The 10th anniversary of the scientific description of the black snub-nosed monkey (Rhinopithecus strykeri): It is time to initiate a set of new management strategies to save this critically endangered primate from extinction

Traditionally, the genus Rhinopithecus (Milne-Edwards, 1872, Primates, Colobinae) included four allopatric species, restricted in their distributions to China and Vietnam. In 2010, a fifth species, the black snub-nosed monkey (Rhinopithecus strykeri) was discovered in the Gaoligong Mountains located on the border between China and Myanmar. Despite the remoteness, complex mountainous terrain, dense fog, and armed conflict that characterizes this region, over this past decade Chinese and Myanmar scientists have begun to collect quantitative data on the ecology, behavior and conservation requirements of R. strykeri. In this article, we review the existing data and present new information on the life history, ecology, and population size of R. strykeri. We discuss these data in the context of past and current conservation challenges faced by R. strykeri, and propose a series of both short-term and long-term management actions to ensure the survival of this Critically Endangered primate species. Specifically, we recommend that the governments and stakeholders in China and Myanmar formulate a transboundary conservation agreement that includes a consensus on bilateral exchange mechanisms, scientific research and monitoring goals, local community development, cooperation to prevent the hunting of endangered species and cross-border forest fires. These actions will contribute to the long-term conservation and survival of this Critically Endangered species.

Conserving Working Rangelands: A Social–Ecological Case Study from Northeastern Colorado

Land changes in rangeland systems cascade through interconnected social and ecological spheres, affecting both humans and the environment. This study applied a multi-method approach to examine the causes and consequences of change in two rangeland communities in northeastern (NE) Colorado. First, this study used a Random Forest supervised classifier to analyze 36 years of land-cover data and create a land-cover/use change classification model. Second, the research team analyzed transcripts of interviews with 32 ranchers, examining how ranchers’ adaptive strategies influence land-cover change trends. Lastly, the analysis integrated the quantitative and qualitative data, constructing a social–ecological rangeland change conceptual model. This study found that the cultivated area decreased in both study sites from 1984–2019, with 16.0% and 18.7% of each site transitioning out of the cultivated area. Moreover, 10.3% and 18.4% of each site, respectively, transitioned to herbaceous/grassland cover from 1984–2019. The qualitative analysis identified the role of conservation policies, such as open space programs, on land change. Also, despite the relatively small area that transitioned to developed cover—1.83% and 0.183% of each site—participants emphasized that the associated demographic and cultural shifts drive land-use change. This study highlights that while rangelands are undergoing social–ecological change, land-use decisions and land conservation programs can help mitigate the global trend of declining rangeland and grassland cover.

A Review of Small Farmer Land Use and Deforestation in Tropical Forest Frontiers: Implications for Conservation and Sustainable Livelihoods

Forest conversion for agriculture is the most expansive signature of human occupation on the Earth’s surface. This paper develops a conceptual model of factors underlying frontier agricultural expansion—the predominant driver of deforestation worldwide—from the perspective of small farm households—the majority of farmers globally. The framework consists of four causal rubrics: demographic, socioeconomic, political–economic, and ecological. Following this approach, the article explores the current state of knowledge on tropical deforestation in tropical agricultural frontiers with a focus on Latin America, the region of greatest deforestation worldwide during recent decades. Neo-Malthusian arguments notwithstanding, in many tropical nations, deforestation has proceeded unabated in recent years despite declining rural populations. However, evidence from the global-to-household scale suggests that population size and composition are also related to farm forest conversion. Existing particularist or behaviorialist theories sometimes fail to capture key geographical and temporal dimensions, yet studies support the notion that certain cultural, individual, and household characteristics are crucial determinants of forest clearing. Conversely, while institutional arguments sometimes fail to emphasize that the ultimate land use change agents are local resource users, their livelihood decisions are shaped and constrained by policies governing economic subsidies, and market and infrastructure development. Further, although ecological change is usually modeled as an outcome in the deforestation literature, increasingly acute climate change and natural farm endowments form a dynamic tabula rasa on which household land use decisions are enabled. To more fully comprehend frontier forest conversion and to enhance protection and conservation while promoting vital local livelihoods, future research may fruitfully investigate the interaction of demographic, social, political, economic, and ecological factors across spatial scales and academic disciplines.

Evaluation of Ecosystem-Based Adaptation Measures for Sediment Yield in a Tropical Watershed in Thailand

Ecosystem-based adaptation (EbA) can potentially mitigate watershed degradation problems. In this study, various EbA measures were evaluated using a bio-physical model called the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT), in a small, forested watershed named Hui Ta Poe, in the northeastern region of Thailand. The developed watershed model was first used to investigate the effect of various degraded watersheds due to land-use changes on the sediment yield in the study area. The most degraded watershed produced an annual average sediment yield of 13.5 tons/ha. This degraded watershed was then used to evaluate the effectiveness of various EbA measures such as reforestation, contouring, filter strips, and grassed waterways in reducing the sediment yield. Under all individual and combined EbA scenarios analyzed, there was a significant reduction in sediment yield; however, the maximum reduction of 88% was achieved with a combined scenario of reforestation, grassed waterways, and filter strips. Reforestation alone was found to be the second-best option, which could reduce the sediment yield by 84%. Contouring alone was the least effective, with a reduction in sediment yield of only 23%. This study demonstrates the usefulness of implementing EbA measures for sediment management strategies to address watershed degradation, which is a severe problem across the globe.

Air Pollution From Forest and Vegetation Fires in Southeast Asia Disproportionately Impacts the Poor

Forest and vegetation fires, used as tools for agriculture and deforestation, are a major source of air pollutants and can cause serious air quality issues in many parts of Asia. Actions to reduce fire may offer considerable, yet largely unrecognized, options for rapid improvements in air quality. In this study, we used a combination of regional and global air quality models and observations to examine the impact of forest and vegetation fires on air quality degradation and public health in Southeast Asia (including Mainland Southeast Asia and south-eastern China). We found that eliminating fire could substantially improve regional air quality across Southeast Asia by reducing the population exposure to fine particulate matter (PM2.5) concentrations by 7% and surface ozone concentrations by 5%. These reductions in PM2.5 exposures would yield a considerable public health benefit across the region; averting 59,000 (95% uncertainty interval (95UI): 55,200-62,900) premature deaths annually. Analysis of subnational infant mortality rate data and PM2.5 exposure suggested that PM2.5 from fires disproportionately impacts poorer populations across Southeast Asia. We identified two key regions in northern Laos and western Myanmar where particularly high levels of poverty coincide with exposure to relatively high levels of PM2.5 from fires. Our results show that reducing forest and vegetation fires should be a public health priority for the Southeast Asia region.

Ongoing decline of suitable habitat for the Critically Endangered Gurney's pitta Hydrornis gurneyi

From 1999 onwards, level, lowland forests (altitude < 150 m, slopes < 10°) in the Tanintharyi Region of southern Myanmar have been cleared on a large scale and replaced by oil palm plantations. This has resulted in a drastic decline in suitable habitat for several species, including Gurney's pitta Hydrornis gurneyi (Passeriformes, Pittidae). The habitat for this species has decreased by > 80%, leading to its categorization as Critically Endangered on the IUCN Red List in 2019. As threats in the region have continued, we updated information on the status of the species’ habitat in January 2020, and examined forest loss in the three strongholds where the species still persists in the wild. Since the previous estimate in 2017, suitable habitat in these locations has decreased by 8% (from 656 to 603 km2), with > 10% of the remaining area now in fragments of < 1 km2, which are unsuitable for the mid- to long-term survival of the species. Forest degradation and edge effects from increased fragmentation have led to further loss of suitable habitat in these strongholds. Projections indicate that unless conservation action is taken, all suitable habitat will disappear by 2080. The main threat to the long-term survival of Gurney's pitta is the lack of legal protection of primary lowland forests, resulting in uncontrolled clearance for small- and large-scale agriculture and industrial development. We provide recommendations to reduce the rate of loss of the remaining suitable habitat for the species.

Environment, Business, and Health Care Prevail: A Comprehensive, Systematic Review of System Dynamics Application Domains

System dynamics, as a methodology for analyzing and understanding various types of systems, has been applied in research for several decades. We undertook a review to identify the latest application domains and map the realm of system dynamics. The systematic review was conducted according to the PRISMA methodology. We analyzed and categorized 212 articles and found that the vast majority of studies belong to the fields of business administration, health, and environmental research. Altogether, 20 groups of modeling and simulation topics can be recognized. System dynamics is occasionally supported by other modeling methodologies such as the agent-based modeling approach. There are issues related to published studies mostly associated with testing of validity and reasonability of models, leading to the development of predictions that are not grounded in verified models. This study contributes to the development of system dynamics as a methodology that can offer new ideas, highlight limitations, or provide analogies for further research in various research disciplines.

Contemporary forest loss in Myanmar: Effect of democratic transition and subsequent timber bans on landscape structure and composition

This study addresses the effect of political transition and subsequent timber bans on forest loss in Myanmar, in the context of identified drivers. Cook's Distance (CD) was applied to remotely sensed time-series forest loss dataset to measure the effect of the events. Forest loss derived fragmentation metrics were linked to drivers at a landscape scale. Results show that at the national level, the political transition in 2011 had maximum effect (CD 0.935) on forest loss while the timber bans decreased forest loss by 612.04 km² and 213.15 km² in 2015 and 2017 (CD 0.146 and 0.035), respectively. The effect of the events varied for different States/Regions. The dominant drivers of change shifted from plantations in 2011 to infrastructure development in 2015. This study demonstrates the effects of policy on forest loss at various scales and can inform decision-makers for forest conservation, planning and development of mitigation measures.

Prevalence and Diversity of Avian Haemosporidians May Vary with Anthropogenic Disturbance in Tropical Habitats in Myanmar

Avian malaria and related haemosporidians (genera Haemoproteus, Plasmodium and Leucocytozoon) infect most clades of bird. Although these parasites are present in almost all continents, they have been irregularly studied across different geographical regions. Despite the high bird diversity in Asia, the diversity of avian haemosporidians in this region is largely unknown. Moreover, anthropogenic changes to habitats in tropical regions may have a profound impact on the overall composition of haemosporidian communities. Here we analyzed the diversity and host association of bird haemosporidians from areas with different degrees of anthropogenic disturbance in Myanmar, revealing an unexplored diversity of these parasites (27% of newly-discovered haemosporidian lineages, and 64% of new records of host–parasite assemblages) in these tropical environments. This newly discovered diversity will be valuable for detecting host range and transmission areas of haemosporidian parasites. We also found slightly higher haemosporidian prevalence and diversity in birds from paddy fields than in individuals from urban areas and hills, thus implying that human alteration of natural environments may affect the dynamics of vector-borne diseases. These outcomes provide valuable insights for biodiversity conservation management in threatened tropical ecosystems.

Anthropogenic modification of forests means only 40% of remaining forests have high ecosystem integrity

Many global environmental agendas, including halting biodiversity loss, reversing land degradation, and limiting climate change, depend upon retaining forests with high ecological integrity, yet the scale and degree of forest modification remain poorly quantified and mapped. By integrating data on observed and inferred human pressures and an index of lost connectivity, we generate a globally consistent, continuous index of forest condition as determined by the degree of anthropogenic modification. Globally, only 17.4 million km² of forest (40.5%) has high landscape-level integrity (mostly found in Canada, Russia, the Amazon, Central Africa, and New Guinea) and only 27% of this area is found in nationally designated protected areas. Of the forest inside protected areas, only 56% has high landscape-level integrity. Ambitious policies that prioritize the retention of forest integrity, especially in the most intact areas, are now urgently needed alongside current efforts aimed at halting deforestation and restoring the integrity of forests globally.

Mapping and quantifying degree of forest modification is critical to conserve and manage forests. Here the authors propose a new quantitative metric for landscape integrity and apply it to a global forest map, showing that less than half of the world’s forest cover has high integrity, most of which is outside nationally designed protected areas.

Land use and land cover changes along the China-Myanmar Oil and Gas pipelines - Monitoring infrastructure development in remote conflict-prone regions

Energy infrastructures can have negative impacts on the environment. In remote and / or sparsely populated as well as in conflict-prone regions, these can be difficult to assess, in particular when they are of a large scale. Analyzing land use and land cover changes can be an important initial step towards establishing the quantity and quality of impacts. Drawing from very-high-resolution-multi-temporal-satellite-imagery, this paper reports on a study which employed the Random Forest Classifier and Land Change Modeler to derive detailed information of the spatial patterns and temporal variations of land-use and land-cover changes resulting from the China-Myanmar Oil and Gas Pipelines in Ann township in Myanmar’s Rakhine State of Myanmar. Deforestation and afforestation conversion processes during pre- and post-construction periods (2010 to 2012) are compared. Whilst substantial forest areas were lost along the pipelines, this is only part of the story, as afforestation has also happened in parallel. However, afforestation areas can be of a lower value, and in order to be able to take quality of forests into account, it is of crucial importance to accompany satellite-imagery based techniques with field observation. Findings have important implications for future infrastructure development projects in conflict-affected regions in Myanmar and elsewhere.

Hkakabo Razi landscape as one of the last exemplar of large contiguous forests

Deforestation and forest degradation around the world endanger the functioning of ecosystems, climate stability, and conservation of biodiversity. We assessed the spatial and temporal dynamics of forest cover in Myanmar’s Hkakabo Razi Landscape (HRL) to determine its integrity based on forest change and fragmentation patterns from 1989 to 2016. Over 80% of the HRL was covered by natural areas, from which forest was the most prevalent (around 60%). Between 1989 and 2016, forest cover declined at an annual rate of 0.225%. Forest degradation occurred mainly around the larger plains of Putao and Naung Mung, areas with relatively high human activity. Although the rate of forest interior loss was approximately 2 to 3 times larger than the rate of total forest loss, forest interior was prevalent with little fragmentation. Physical and environmental variables were the main predictors of either remaining in the current land-cover class or transitioning to another class, although remaining in the current land cover was more likely than land conversion. The forests of the HRL have experienced low human impact and still constitute large tracts of contiguous forest interior. To ensure the protection of these large tracts of forest, sustainable forest policies and management should be implemented.

An Analysis of the Causes of Deforestation in Malawi: A Case of Mwazisi

Deforestation is recognized as a major driver of the loss of biodiversity and ecosystem services. It also disturbs natural processes such as biogeochemical, hydrological, and ecological cycles. In Malawi, deforestation is estimated to be responsible for the loss of 33,000 hectares per year, and is mainly attributed to agriculture expansion, tobacco growing, and excessive use of biomass. However, little research has been conducted at either the local level or that of forests located on customary land. This research aimed to identify and analyze the underlying driving factors associated with the proximate factors of agriculture expansion, tobacco growing, and brick burning in Mwazisi. Landsat images for 1991, 2004, and 2017 were downloaded from the United States Geological Survey website and used to analyze changes in forest cover. Interviews with households (n = 399) and Natural Resource Committee members, a focus group discussion with key officers, and observations were conducted during field data collection in 2017. The results of the land cover analysis showed that forest covered 66% of the study area in 1991, and by 2017 it had decreased to 45.8%. Most households depend on wood from customary land forests for tobacco curing (69%) and brick burning (68%). Furthermore, 47.6% of the households have expanded their agriculture land by approximately 0.57 hectares during the past 15 years. The interview survey and the focus group discussion identified that the underlying driving factors towards these anthropogenic activities are: (a) population growth, (b) poverty, (c) expensive alternative building materials, (d) lack of awareness, (e) lack of resources, (f) lack of commitment from the tobacco companies, and (g) market system of the cash crops grown in the area. In conclusion, a set of economic, institutional, social, and demographic factors, which are associated with imbalanced relationship between rural and urban areas, underpin agriculture expansion, tobacco growing, and brick burning, and have thereby contributed to the decline of the forest cover in Mwazisi, Malawi.

Local Perspectives on Ecosystem Service Trade-Offs in a Forest Frontier Landscape in Myanmar

Extensive land use changes in forest frontier landscapes are leading to trade-offs in the supply of ecosystem services (ES) with, in many cases, as yet unknown effects on human well-being. In the Tanintharyi Region of Myanmar, a forest frontier landscape facing oil palm and rubber expansion, little is known about local perspectives on ES and the direct impact of trade-offs from land use change. This study assessed the trade-offs experienced with respect to 10 locally important ES from land user perspectives using social valuation techniques. The results show that while intact forests provide the most highly valued ES bundle, the conversion to rubber plantations entails fewer negative trade-offs than that to oil palm. Rubber plantations offer income, fuelwood, a good microclimate, and even new cultural identities. By contrast, oil palm concessions have caused environmental pollution, and, most decisively, have restricted local people’s access to the respective lands. The ES water flow regulation is seen as the most critical if more forest is converted; other ES, such as non-timber forest products, can be more easily substituted. We conclude that, from local perspectives, the impact of ES trade-offs highly depends on access to land and opportunities to adapt to change.

Integrating Analytical Frameworks to Investigate Land-Cover Regime Shifts in Dynamic Landscapes

Regime shifts—rapid long-term transitions between stable states—are well documented in ecology but remain controversial and understudied in land use and land cover change (LUCC). In particular, uncertainty surrounds the prevalence and causes of regime shifts at the landscape level. We studied LUCC dynamics in the Tanintharyi Region (Myanmar), which contains one of the last remaining significant contiguous forest areas in Southeast Asia but was heavily deforested between 1992–2015. By combining remote sensing methods and a literature review of historical processes leading to LUCC, we identified a regime shift from a forest-oriented state to an agricultural-oriented state between 1997–2004. The regime shift was triggered by a confluence of complex political and economic conditions within Myanmar, notably the ceasefires between various ethnic groups and the military government, coupled with its enhanced business relations with Thailand and China. Government policies and foreign direct investment enabling the establishment of large-scale agro-industrial concessions reinforced the new agriculture-oriented regime and prevented reversion to the original forest-dominated regime. Our approach of integrating complementary analytical frameworks to identify and understand land-cover regime shifts can help policymakers to preempt future regime shifts in Tanintharyi, and can be applied to the study of land change in other regions.

What Awaits Myanmar’s Uplands Farmers? Lessons Learned from Mainland Southeast Asia

Mainland Southeast Asia (MSA) has seen sweeping upland land use changes in the past decades, with transition from primarily subsistence shifting cultivation to annual commodity cropping. This transition holds implications for local upland communities and ecosystems. Due to its particular political regime, Myanmar is at the tail of this development. However, with Myanmar’s official strategy of agricultural commercialization and intensification, recent liberalization of the national economy, and influx of multinational agricultural companies, the effects on upland land transitions could come fast. We analyze the current state of upland land use in Myanmar in a socio-economic and political context, identify the dynamics in three indicator commodity crops (maize, cassava, and rubber), and discuss the state driven economic, tenurial and policy reforms that have occurred in upland areas of mainland Southeast Asian countries in past decades. We draw on these insights to contextualize our study and hypothesize about possible transition pathways for Myanmar. The transition to annual commodity cropping is generally driven by a range of socio-economic and technical factors. We find that land use dynamics for the three indicator crops are associated with market demand and thus the opening of national Southeast-Asian economies, research and development of locally suitable high yielding varieties (HYVs), and subsidies for the promotion of seeds and inputs. In contrast, promotion of HYVs in marginal areas and without adequate agricultural extension services may results in agricultural contraction and yield dis-intensification. The environmental impacts of the transition depend on the transition pathway, e.g., through large-scale plantation projects or smallholder initiatives. The agricultural development in upland MSA follows a clear diffusion pattern with transition occurring first in Thailand, spreading to Vietnam, Cambodia and Laos. While these countries point to prospects for Myanmar, we hypothesize that changes will come slow due to Myanmar’s sparse rural infrastructure, with uncertainty about tenure, in particular in areas still troubled by armed conflicts, and unwillingness of international investors to approach Myanmar given the recent setbacks to the democratization process.

Investigating changes within the handling system of the largest semi-captive population of Asian elephants

The current extinction crisis leaves us increasingly reliant on captive populations to maintain vulnerable species. Approximately one third of Asian elephants (Elephas maximus) are living in semi-captive conditions in range countries. Their relationship with humans stretches back millennia, yet elephants have never been fully domesticated. We rely on the expertise of traditional handlers (mahouts) to manage these essentially wild animals, yet this profession may be threatened in the modern day. Here, we study the handling system of semi-captive timber elephants in Myanmar; the largest global semi-captive population (~5 000). We investigate how recent changes in Myanmar may have affected the keeping system and mahout-elephant interactions. Structured interviews investigated changes to mahout attitude and experience over the last two decades, as perceived by those who had worked in the industry for at least 10 years (n = 23) and as evaluated in current mahouts (n = 210), finding mahouts today are younger (median age 22yrs), less experienced (median experience 3yrs), and change elephants frequently, threatening traditional knowledge transfer. Mahout-elephant interactions manifested as 5 components (‘job appreciation’; ‘experience is necessary’; ‘human-elephant interaction’; ‘own knowledge’; ‘elephant relationship’), according to Principal Components Analysis. Experienced mahouts and mahouts of bulls and younger elephants were more likely to agree that ‘experience is necessary’ to be a mahout. Mahouts with difficult elephants scored lower on ‘human-elephant interaction’ and a mahout’s perception of their ‘own knowledge’ increased with more experience. Our finding of change in terms of mahout experience, age and commitment in the largest semi-captive elephant population suggests need for formal training and assessment of impacts on elephant welfare; these are findings applicable to thousands of elephants under similar management.

Dramatic cropland expansion in Myanmar following political reforms threatens biodiversity

Effective conservation planning needs to consider the threats of cropland expansion to biodiversity. We used Myanmar as a case study to devise a modeling framework to identify which Key Biodiversity Areas (KBAs) are most vulnerable to cropland expansion in a context of increasingly resolved armed conflict. We studied 13 major crops with the potential to expand into KBAs. We used mixed-effects models and an agricultural versus forest rent framework to model current land use and conversion of forests to cropland for each crop. We found that the current cropland distribution is explained by higher agricultural value, lower transportation costs and lower elevation. We also found that protected areas and socio-political instability are effective in slowing down deforestation with conflicts in Myanmar damaging farmland and displacing farmers elsewhere. Under plausible economic development and socio-political stability scenarios, the models forecast 48.5% of land to be converted. We identified export crops such as maize, and pigeon pea as key deforestation drivers. This cropland expansion would pose a major threat to Myanmar’s freshwater KBAs. We highlight the importance of considering rapid land-use transitions in the tropics to devise robust conservation plans.

Whose Agency Counts in Land Use Decision-Making in Myanmar? A Comparative Analysis of Three Cases in Tanintharyi Region

Myanmar has experienced profound transformations of land use and land governance, often at the expense of smallholders. Empirical evidence on the agency of actors included and excluded in land use decision-making remains scarce. This study analyses who influences land use decision-making, how they do this, and under what circumstances smallholders are included. Comparing three land use trajectories in southern Myanmar, we analysed actors’ agency—conceived as the meanings and means behind (re)actions—in land use decision-making using data from focus groups and interviews. Results showed that uneven distribution of means can lead to unequal decision-making power, enabling actors with more means to exclude those with less means: smallholders. However, this only applies in the case of top-down interventions with mutually exclusive actor interests regarding use of the same land. Where interests are compatible or a mediator supports smallholders in negotiations, actors are likely to develop a collaboration despite unequal means, leading to smallholders’ inclusion in decision-making. Transformation of current land governance towards sustainable development could be promoted by providing mediators to actors with few means, ensuring equal access for all to formal land tenure, engaging with brokers in the land governance network, and improving access to knowledge and financial capital for actors with few means.

Factors affecting forest area change in Southeast Asia during 1980-2010

While many tropical countries are experiencing rapid deforestation, some have experienced forest transition (FT) from net deforestation to net reforestation. Numerous studies have identified causative factors of FT, among which forest scarcity has been considered as a prerequisite for FT. In fact, in SE Asia, the Philippines, Thailand and Viet Nam, which experienced FT since 1990, exhibited a lower remaining forest area (30±8%) than the other five countries (68±6%, Cambodia, Indonesia, Laos, Malaysia, and Myanmar) where forest loss continues. In this study, we examined 1) the factors associated with forest scarcity, 2) the proximate and/or underlying factors that have driven forest area change, and 3) whether causative factors changed across FT phases (from deforestation to net forest gain) during 1980–2010 in the eight SE Asian countries. We used production of wood, food, and export-oriented food commodities as proximate causes and demographic, social, economic and environmental factors, as well as land-use efficiency, and wood and food trade as underlying causes that affect forest area change. Remaining forest area in 1990 was negatively correlated with population density and potential land area of lowland forests, while positively correlated with per capita wood production. This implies that countries rich in accessible and productive forests, and higher population pressures are the ones that have experienced forest scarcity, and eventually FT. Food production and agricultural input were negatively and positively correlated, respectively, with forest area change during 1980–2009. This indicates that more food production drives deforestation, but higher efficiency of agriculture is correlated with forest gain. We also found a U-shaped response of forest area change to social openness, suggesting that forest gain can be achieved in both open and closed countries, but deforestation might be accelerated in countries undergoing societal transition. These results indicate the importance of environmental, agricultural and social variables on forest area dynamics, and have important implications for predicting future tropical forest change.

Political transition and emergent forest-conservation issues in Myanmar

Political and economic transitions have had substantial impacts on forest conservation. Where transitions are underway or anticipated, historical precedent and methods for systematically assessing future trends should be used to anticipate likely threats to forest conservation and design appropriate and prescient policy measures to counteract them. Myanmar is transitioning from an authoritarian, centralized state with a highly regulated economy to a more decentralized and economically liberal democracy and is working to end a long-running civil war. With these transitions in mind, we used a horizon-scanning approach to assess the 40 emerging issues most affecting Myanmar's forests, including internal conflict, land-tenure insecurity, large-scale agricultural development, demise of state timber enterprises, shortfalls in government revenue and capacity, and opening of new deforestation frontiers with new roads, mines, and hydroelectric dams. Averting these threats will require, for example, overhauling governance models, building capacity, improving infrastructure- and energy-project planning, and reforming land-tenure and environmental-protection laws. Although challenges to conservation in Myanmar are daunting, the political transition offers an opportunity for conservationists and researchers to help shape a future that enhances Myanmar's social, economic, and environmental potential while learning and applying lessons from other countries. Our approach and results are relevant to other countries undergoing similar transitions.