Quantifying progress toward a conservation assessment for all plants

Geographic and Biological Drivers Shape Anthropogenic Extinctions in the Macaronesian Vascular Flora

Whether species extinctions have accelerated during the Anthropocene and the extent to which certain species are more susceptible to extinction due to their ecological preferences and intrinsic biological traits are among the most pressing questions in conservation biology. Assessing extinction rates is, however, challenging, as best exemplified by the phenomenon of 'dark extinctions': the loss of species that disappear before they are even formally described. These issues are particularly problematic in oceanic islands, where species exhibit high rates of endemism and unique biological traits but are also among the most vulnerable to extinction. Here, we document plant species extinctions since Linnaeus' Species Plantarum in Macaronesia, a biogeographic region comprised of five hyperdiverse oceanic archipelagos, and identify the key drivers behind these extinctions. We compiled 168 records covering 126 taxa, identifying 13 global and 155 local extinction events. Significantly higher extinction rates were observed compared to the expected global background rate. We uncovered differentiated extinction patterns along altitudinal gradients, highlighting a recent coastal hotspot linked to socioeconomic changes in Macaronesian archipelagos from the 1960s onwards. Key factors influencing extinction patterns include island age, elevation, introduced herbivorous mammals, and human population size. Trait-based analyses across the floras of the Azores and Canary Islands revealed that endemicity, pollination by vertebrates, nitrogen-fixing capacity, woodiness, and zoochory consistently tended to increase extinction risk. Our findings emphasize the critical role of geography and biological traits, alongside anthropogenic impacts, in shaping extinction dynamics on oceanic islands. Enhancing our knowledge of life-history traits within island floras is crucial for accurately predicting and mitigating future extinction risks, underscoring the urgent need for comprehensive biodiversity assessments in island ecosystems.

Genome size is positively correlated with extinction risk in herbaceous angiosperms

Angiosperms with large genomes experience nuclear-, cellular-, and organism-level constraints that may limit their phenotypic plasticity and ecological niche, which could increase their risk of extinction. Therefore, we test the hypotheses that large-genomed species are more likely to be threatened with extinction than those with small genomes, and that the effect of genome size varies across three selected covariates: life form, endemism, and climatic zone. We collated genome size and extinction risk information for a representative sample of angiosperms comprising 3250 species, which we analyzed alongside life form, endemism, and climatic zone variables using a phylogenetic framework. Genome size is positively correlated with extinction risk, a pattern driven by a signal in herbaceous but not woody species, regardless of climate and endemism. The influence of genome size is stronger in endemic herbaceous species, but is relatively homogenous across different climates. Beyond its indirect link via endemism and climate, genome size is associated with extinction risk directly and significantly. Genome size may serve as a proxy for difficult-to-measure parameters associated with resilience and vulnerability in herbaceous angiosperms. Therefore, it merits further exploration as a useful biological attribute for understanding intrinsic extinction risk and augmenting plant conservation efforts.

Extinction risk predictions for the world's flowering plants to support their conservation

More than 70% of all vascular plants lack conservation status assessments. We aimed to address this shortfall in knowledge of species extinction risk by using the World Checklist of Vascular Plants to generate the first comprehensive set of predictions for a large clade: angiosperms (flowering plants, c. 330 000 species). We used Bayesian Additive Regression Trees (BART) to predict the extinction risk of all angiosperms using predictors relating to range size, human footprint, climate, and evolutionary history and applied a novel approach to estimate uncertainty of individual species-level predictions. From our model predictions, we estimate 45.1% of angiosperm species are potentially threatened with a lower bound of 44.5% and upper bound of 45.7%. Our species-level predictions, with associated uncertainty estimates, do not replace full global, or regional Red List assessments, but can be used to prioritise predicted threatened species for full Red List assessment and fast-track predicted non-threatened species for Least Concern assessments. Our predictions and uncertainty estimates can also guide fieldwork, inform systematic conservation planning and support global plant conservation efforts and targets.

rWCVP: a companion R package for the World Checklist of Vascular Plants

The World Checklist of Vascular Plants (WCVP) is an extremely valuable resource that is being used to address many fundamental and applied questions in plant science, conservation, ecology and evolution. However, databases of this size require data manipulation skills that pose a barrier to many potential users. Here, we present rWCVP, an open-source R package that aims to facilitate the use of the WCVP by providing clear, intuitive functions to execute many common tasks. These functions include taxonomic name reconciliation, geospatial integration, mapping and generation of multiple different summaries of the WCVP in both data and report format. We have included extensive documentation and tutorials, providing step-by-step guides that are accessible even to users with minimal programming experience. rWCVP is available on cran and GitHub.

Global conservation prioritization for the Orchidaceae

Quantitative assessments of endemism, evolutionary distinctiveness and extinction threat underpin global conservation prioritization for well-studied taxa, such as birds, mammals, and amphibians. However, such information is unavailable for most of the world's taxa. This is the case for the Orchidaceae, a hyperdiverse and cosmopolitan family with incomplete phylogenetic and threat information. To define conservation priorities, we present a framework based on phylogenetic and taxonomic measures of distinctiveness and rarity based on the number of regions and the area of occupancy. For 25,434 orchid species with distribution data (89.3% of the Orchidaceae), we identify the Neotropics as hotspots for richness, New Guinea as a hotspot for evolutionary distinctiveness, and several islands that contain many rare and distinct species. Orchids have a similar proportion of monotypic genera as other Angiosperms, however, more taxonomically distinct orchid species are found in a single region. We identify 278 species in need of immediate conservation actions and find that more than 70% of these do not currently have an IUCN conservation assessment and are not protected in ex-situ collections at Botanical Gardens. Our study highlights locations and orchid species in urgent need of conservation and demonstrates a framework that can be applied to other data-deficient taxa.

The likely extinction of hundreds of palm species threatens their contributions to people and ecosystems

Protecting nature's contributions to people requires accelerating extinction risk assessment and better integrating evolutionary, functional and used diversity with conservation planning. Here, we report machine learning extinction risk predictions for 1,381 palm species (Arecaceae), a plant family of high socio-economic and ecological importance. We integrate these predictions with published assessments for 508 species (covering 75% of all palm species) and we identify top-priority regions for palm conservation on the basis of their proportion of threatened evolutionarily distinct, functionally distinct and used species. Finally, we explore palm use resilience to identify non-threatened species that could potentially serve as substitutes for threatened used species by providing similar products. We estimate that over a thousand palms (56%) are probably threatened, including 185 species with documented uses. Some regions (New Guinea, Vanuatu and Vietnam) emerge as top ten priorities for conservation only after incorporating machine learning extinction risk predictions. Potential substitutes are identified for 91% of the threatened used species and regional use resilience increases with total palm richness. However, 16 threatened used species lack potential substitutes and 30 regions lack substitutes for at least one of their threatened used palm species. Overall, we show that hundreds of species of this keystone family face extinction, some of them probably irreplaceable, at least locally. This highlights the need for urgent actions to avoid major repercussions on palm-associated ecosystem processes and human livelihoods in the coming decades.

Reshi. Taxonomy and threat assessment of Lagotis kunawurensis Rupr. (Plantaginaceae), an endemic medicinal plant species of the Himalaya, India

Lagotis kunawurensis Rupr. (Plantaginaceae), a rare plant species endemic to the Himalaya, is reported here after a gap of 50 years from Ladakh. This species has often been taxonomically misidentified and confused with Picrorhiza kurroa, an important medicinal plant of the Himalaya. The present study clarifies the taxonomy of L. kunawurensis by providing description and photo illustrations of diagnostic characters which will aid its proper field identification. Furthermore, the threat assessment of L. kunawurensis using the IUCN Red List of Threatened Species has been conducted based on the available occurrence records, and the species currently falls under the ‘Near Threatened’ category. This species is used for medicinal purposes by locals in the study area. As the species is simultaneously experiencing various kinds of threats and the known distribution range is relatively smaller, it is right time to develop conservation strategies for the sustainable utilization of this endemic medicinal plant species of the Himalaya.

'Fly to a Safer North': Distributional Shifts of the Orchid Ophrys insectifera L. Due to Climate Change

Numerous orchid species around the world have already been affected by the ongoing climate change, displaying phenological alterations and considerable changes to their distributions. The fly orchid (Ophrys insectifera L.) is a well-known and distinctive Ophrys species in Europe, with a broad distribution across the continent. This study explores the effects of climate change on the range of O. insectifera, using a species distribution models (SDMs) framework that encompasses different climatic models and scenarios for the near- and long-term future. The species' environmentally suitable area is projected to shift northwards (as expected) but downhill (contrary to usual expectations) in the future. In addition, an overall range contraction is predicted under all investigated combinations of climatic models and scenarios. While this is moderate overall, it includes some regions of severe loss and other areas with major gains. Specifically, O. insectifera is projected to experience major area loss in its southern reaches (the Balkans, Italy and Spain), while it will expand its northern limits to North Europe, with the UK, Scandinavia, and the Baltic countries exhibiting the largest gains.

Reversing extinction trends: new uses of (old) herbarium specimens to accelerate conservation action on threatened species

Although often not collected specifically for the purposes of conservation, herbarium specimens offer sufficient information to reconstruct parameters that are needed to designate a species as 'at-risk' of extinction. While such designations should prompt quick and efficient legal action towards species recovery, such action often lags far behind and is mired in bureaucratic procedure. The increase in online digitization of natural history collections has now led to a surge in the number new studies on the uses of machine learning. These repositories of species occurrences are now equipped with advances that allow for the identification of rare species. The increase in attention devoted to estimating the scope and severity of the threats that lead to the decline of such species will increase our ability to mitigate these threats and reverse the declines, overcoming a current barrier to the recovery of many threatened plant species. Thus far, collected specimens have been used to fill gaps in systematics, range extent, and past genetic diversity. We find that they also offer material with which it is possible to foster species recovery, ecosystem restoration, and de-extinction, and these elements should be used in conjunction with machine learning and citizen science initiatives to mobilize as large a force as possible to counter current extinction trends.

Extinction Risk Assessment of the Greek Endemic Flora

Human-induced biodiversity decline has been on the rise for the past 250 years, due to various causes. What is equally troubling, is that we are unaware which plants are threatened and where they occur. Thus, we are far from reaching Aichi Biodiversity Target 2, i.e., assessing the extinction risk of most species. To that end, based on an extensive occurrence dataset, we performed an extinction risk assessment according to the IUCN Criteria A and B for all the endemic plant taxa occurring in Greece, one of the most biodiverse countries in Europe, in a phylogenetically-informed framework and identified the areas needing conservation prioritization. Several of the Greek endemics are threatened with extinction and fourteen endemics need to be prioritized, as they are evolutionary distinct and globally endangered. Mt. Gramos is identified as the most important conservation hotspot in Greece. However, a significant portion of the identified conservation hotspots is not included in any designated Greek protected area, meaning that the Greek protected areas network might need to be at least partially redesigned. In the Anthropocene era, where climate and land-use change are projected to alter biodiversity patterns and may force many species to extinction, our assessment provides the baseline for future conservation research, ecosystem services maintenance, and might prove crucial for the timely, systematic and effective aversion of plant extinctions in Greece.

An Orchid in Retrograde: Climate-Driven Range Shift Patterns of Ophrys helenae in Greece

Climate change is regarded as one of the most important threats to plants. Already species around the globe are showing considerable latitudinal and altitudinal shifts. Helen's bee orchid (Ophrys helenae), a Balkan endemic with a distribution center in northwestern Greece, is reported to be expanding east and southwards. Since this southeastern movement goes against the usual expectations, we investigated via Species Distribution Modelling, whether this pattern is consistent with projections based on the species' response to climate change. We predicted the species' future distribution based on three different climate models in two climate scenarios. We also explored the species' potential distribution during the Last Interglacial and the Last Glacial Maximum. O. helenae is projected to shift mainly southeast and experience considerable area changes. The species is expected to become extinct in the core of its current distribution, but to establish a strong presence in the mid- and high-altitude areas of the Central Peloponnese, a region that could have provided shelter in previous climatic extremes.

Nepenthes maximoides (Nepenthaceae) a new, critically endangered (possibly extinct) species in Sect. Alatae from Luzon, Philippines showing striking pitcher convergence with N. maxima (Sect. Regiae) of Indonesia

Nepenthes maximoides sp. nov. (Sect. Alatae) is described and assessed as Critically Endangered (Possibly Extinct) from Luzon, Philippines and appears unrecorded in 110 years. The spectacular, large, narrowly funnel-shaped upper pitchers, lids with recurved basal and filiform apical appendages, unlike any other species in the Philippines, closely resemble those of N. maxima (Sect. Regiae) of Sulawesi-New Guinea, likely due to convergent evolution. Following recent phylogenomic analysis, sect. Alatae is divided into two, Sect. Alatae sensu stricto of Luzon to Sibuyan (including N. maximoides), and Sect. Micramphorae, expanded and recircumscribed to encompass those species of the southern Visayas, and Mindanao. A key is provided to the six species now recognised in the newly narrowly recircumscribed Sect. Alatae. The number of Nepenthes species recorded from Luzon has increased from two in 2001, to eight in 2020, all but one of which are endemic to that island, and four of which appear to be point endemics.

Safeguarding our future by protecting biodiversity

The Anthropocene is marked by twin crises: climate change and biodiversity loss. Climate change has tended to dominate the headlines, reflecting, in part, the greater complexity of the biodiversity crisis. Biodiversity itself is a difficult concept. Land plants dominate the global biomass and terrestrial arthropods probably dominate in terms of numbers of species, but most of the Tree of Life consists of single-celled eukaryotes, bacteria, and archaea. Wild plants provide a huge variety of products and services to people, ranging from those that are species-specific, such as food, medicine, and genetic resources, to many which are partly interchangeable, such as timber and forage for domestic animals, and others which depend on the whole community, but not on individual species, such as regulation of water supply and carbon sequestration. The use of information from remote sensing has encouraged a simplified view of the values of nature's contributions to people, but this does not match the way most people value nature. We can currently estimate the proportion of species threatened by human impacts only for a few well-assessed groups, for which it ranges from 14% (birds) to 63% (cycads). Less than 8% of land plants have been assessed, but it has been estimated that 30-44% are threatened, although there are still few (0.2%) well-documented extinctions. Priorities for improving protection of biodiversity include: improving the inventory, with surveys focused on geographical areas and taxonomic groups which are under-collected; expanding the protected area system and its representativeness; controlling overexploitation; managing invasive species; conserving threatened species ex situ; restoring degraded ecosystems; and controlling climate change. The Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD) COP15 and the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) COP26 meetings, both postponed to 2021, will provide an opportunity to address both crises, but success will require high ambition from all participants.

A third of the tropical African flora is potentially threatened with extinction

Preserving tropical biodiversity is an urgent challenge when faced with the growing needs of countries. Despite their crucial importance for terrestrial ecosystems, most tropical plant species lack extinction risk assessments, limiting our ability to identify conservation priorities. Using a novel approach aligned with IUCN Red List criteria, we conducted a continental-scale preliminary conservation assessment of 22,036 vascular plant species in tropical Africa. Our results underline the high level of extinction risk of the tropical African flora. Thirty-three percent of the species are potentially threatened with extinction, and another third of species are likely rare, potentially becoming threatened in the near future. Four regions are highlighted with a high proportion (>40%) of potentially threatened species: Ethiopia, West Africa, central Tanzania, and southern Democratic Republic of the Congo. Our approach represents a first step toward data-driven conservation assessments applicable at continental scales providing crucial information for sustainable economic development prioritization.

Brazilian efforts towards achieving a comprehensive extinction risk assessment for its known flora

Abstract Brazil houses nearly 36,400 native terrestrial plant species. The country is a signatory of the Global Strategy for Plant Conservation (GSPC) and has to develop tools to achieve GSPC targets. Target 2 states that countries must undertake risk assessments of its entire known plant species by 2020. Here, we offer a panorama on how far has Brazil gone towards achieving this target. We compiled data on all risk assessments for plant species ever made in the country and produced the first synthesis of results with respect to these assessments. We found that the Brazilian Red List Authority for plants has assessed the extinction risk of 5,646 species so far, which corresponds to 15.5% of all known flora in Brazil. Among these species, 2,738 (48%) are currently threatened. Those species are distributed across all Brazilian Biomes and states. Families with the highest number of threatened species are Asteraceae and Bromeliaceae. We conclude that Brazil is far from achieving GSPC target 2 by 2020. However, given the enormous flora of the country and the huge amount of effort and resources put into this particular task, Brazil is following a good path towards a reliable assessment of it entire flora.

An overview of recent progress in the implementation of the Global Strategy for Plant Conservation - a global perspective

Abstract The Global Strategy for Plant Conservation (GSPC) with its 16 outcome-orientated targets aimed at achieving a series of measurable goals was adopted by the Conference of the Parties to the Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD) at its sixth meeting (COP-6) in 2002. In 2010, at COP-10, these targets were updated, taking into account progress at the time. To date, a number of countries have developed national responses to contribute to the GSPC, including several mega-diverse countries and other plant rich countries and regions. Additionally, a number of global initiatives have been established to promote the implementation of the GSPC. This paper provides an overview of progress at the global level towards the GSPC targets, highlighting actions that have taken place at a supra-national level, as well as providing examples of good practice in national implementation. The GSPC has been widely adopted, particularly by the botanic garden community, and while unlikely to achieve its ultimate goal of halting the loss of plant diversity by 2020, has achieved many successes, not least in allowing and facilitating many individuals and organisations from the botanical community to engage with the CBD and to contribute to the achievement of its objectives, targets and priorities.

The use and misuse of herbarium specimens in evaluating plant extinction risks

Herbarium specimens provide verifiable and citable evidence of the occurrence of particular plants at particular points in space and time, and are vital resources for assessing extinction risk in the tropics, where plant diversity and threats to plants are greatest. We reviewed approaches to assessing extinction risk in response to the Convention on Biological Diversity's Global Strategy for Plant Conservation Target 2: an assessment of the conservation status of all known plant species by 2020. We tested five alternative approaches, using herbarium-derived data for trees, shrubs and herbs in five different plant groups from temperate and tropical regions. All species were previously fully assessed for the IUCN Red List. We found significant variation in the accuracy with which different approaches classified species as threatened or not threatened. Accuracy was highest for the machine learning model (90%) but the least data-intensive approach also performed well (82%). Despite concerns about spatial, temporal and taxonomic biases and uncertainties in herbarium data, when specimens represent the best available evidence for particular species, their use as a basis for extinction risk assessment is appropriate, necessary and urgent. Resourcing herbaria to maintain, increase and disseminate their specimen data is essential to guide and focus conservation action.This article is part of the theme issue 'Biological collections for understanding biodiversity in the Anthropocene'.