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Sandretti-Silva G, Vannucchi FS, Teixeira L, Tan TY, Mori GM, Reinert BL, Bornschein MR. Short-term extinction predicted by population viability analysis for a Neotropical salt marsh endemic bird. ENVIRONMENTAL MONITORING AND ASSESSMENT 2024; 196:520. [PMID: 38713379 DOI: 10.1007/s10661-024-12618-x] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/30/2023] [Accepted: 04/12/2024] [Indexed: 05/08/2024]
Abstract
Salt marshes pose challenges for the birds that inhabit them, including high rates of nest flooding, tipping, and predation. The impacts of rising sea levels and invasive species further exacerbate these challenges. To assess the urgency of conservation and adequacy of new actions, researchers and wildlife managers may use population viability analyses (PVAs) to identify population trends and major threats. We conducted PVA for Formicivora acutirostris, which is a threatened neotropical bird species endemic to salt marshes. We studied the species' demography in different sectors of an estuary in southern Brazil from 2006 to 2023 and estimated the sex ratio, longevity, productivity, first-year survival, and mortality rates. For a 133-year period, starting in 1990, we modeled four scenarios: (1) pessimistic and (2) optimistic scenarios, including the worst and best values for the parameters; (3) a baseline scenario, with intermediate values; and (4) scenarios under conservation management, with increased recruitment and/or habitat preservation. Projections indicated population decline for all assessment scenarios, with a 100% probability of extinction by 2054 in the pessimistic scenario and no extinction in the optimistic scenario. The conservation scenarios indicated population stability with 16% improvement in productivity, 10% improvement in first-year survival, and stable carrying capacity. The disjunct distribution of the species, with remnants concentrated in a broad interface with arboreal habitats, may seal the population decline by increasing nest predation. The species should be considered conservation dependent, and we recommend assisted colonization, predator control, habitat recovery, and ex situ conservation.
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Affiliation(s)
- Giovanna Sandretti-Silva
- Departamento de Ciências Biológicas e Ambientais, Universidade Estadual Paulista (UNESP), Instituto de Biociências, Praça Infante Dom Henrique, S/No, São Vicente, 11330-900, Brazil.
| | - Fabio Stucchi Vannucchi
- Departamento de Ciências Biológicas e Ambientais, Universidade Estadual Paulista (UNESP), Instituto de Biociências, Praça Infante Dom Henrique, S/No, São Vicente, 11330-900, Brazil
| | - Larissa Teixeira
- Mater Natura - Instituto de Estudos Ambientais, Rua Emiliano Perneta, 297, Conjunto 122, Curitiba, 80010-050, Brazil
| | - Tjui Yeuw Tan
- Wageningen University & Research, Aquaculture and Fisheries Group, Korringaweg, 7, Yerseke, 4401 NT, The Netherlands
- Aquaculture and Fisheries Group, Wageningen University & Research, De Elst, 1, Wageningen, 6708 WD, The Netherlands
| | - Gustavo Maruyama Mori
- Departamento de Ciências Biológicas e Ambientais, Universidade Estadual Paulista (UNESP), Instituto de Biociências, Praça Infante Dom Henrique, S/No, São Vicente, 11330-900, Brazil
| | - Bianca Luiza Reinert
- Departamento de Ciências Biológicas e Ambientais, Universidade Estadual Paulista (UNESP), Instituto de Biociências, Praça Infante Dom Henrique, S/No, São Vicente, 11330-900, Brazil
| | - Marcos R Bornschein
- Departamento de Ciências Biológicas e Ambientais, Universidade Estadual Paulista (UNESP), Instituto de Biociências, Praça Infante Dom Henrique, S/No, São Vicente, 11330-900, Brazil.
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Lawson DJ, Howard-McCombe J, Beaumont M, Senn H. How admixed captive breeding populations could be rescued using local ancestry information. Mol Ecol 2024:e17349. [PMID: 38634332 DOI: 10.1111/mec.17349] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/14/2023] [Revised: 12/21/2023] [Accepted: 02/26/2024] [Indexed: 04/19/2024]
Abstract
This paper asks the question: can genomic information be used to recover a species that is already on the pathway to extinction due to genetic swamping from a related and more numerous population? We show that a breeding strategy in a captive breeding program can use whole genome sequencing to identify and remove segments of DNA introgressed through hybridisation. The proposed policy uses a generalized measure of kinship or heterozygosity accounting for local ancestry, that is, whether a specific genetic location was inherited from the target of conservation. We then show that optimizing these measures would minimize undesired ancestry while also controlling kinship and/or heterozygosity, in a simulated breeding population. The process is applied to real data representing the hybridized Scottish wildcat breeding population, with the result that it should be possible to breed out domestic cat ancestry. The ability to reverse introgression is a powerful tool brought about through the combination of sequencing with computational advances in ancestry estimation. Since it works best when applied early in the process, important decisions need to be made about which genetically distinct populations should benefit from it and which should be left to reform into a single population.
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Affiliation(s)
- Daniel J Lawson
- Institute of Statistical Sciences, School of Mathematics, University of Bristol, Bristol, UK
| | - Jo Howard-McCombe
- RZSS WildGenes Laboratory, Conservation Department, Royal Zoological Society of Scotland, Edinburgh, UK
| | - Mark Beaumont
- School of Biological Sciences, University of Bristol, Bristol, UK
| | - Helen Senn
- RZSS WildGenes Laboratory, Conservation Department, Royal Zoological Society of Scotland, Edinburgh, UK
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3
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Ponciano JM, Gómez JP, Ravel J, Forney LJ. Inferring stability and persistence in the vaginal microbiome: A stochastic model of ecological dynamics. BIORXIV : THE PREPRINT SERVER FOR BIOLOGY 2024:2024.03.02.581600. [PMID: 38464272 PMCID: PMC10925280 DOI: 10.1101/2024.03.02.581600] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 03/12/2024]
Abstract
The interplay of stochastic and ecological processes that govern the establishment and persistence of host-associated microbial communities is not well understood. Here we illustrate the conceptual and practical advantages of fitting stochastic population dynamics models to multi-species bacterial time series data. We show how the stability properties, fluctuation regimes and persistence probabilities of human vaginal microbial communities can be better understood by explicitly accommodating three sources of variability in ecological stochastic models of multi-species abundances: 1) stochastic biotic and abiotic forces, 2) ecological feedback and 3) sampling error. Rooting our modeling tool in stochastic population dynamics modeling theory was key to apply standardized measures of a community's reaction to environmental variation that ultimately depends on the nature and intensity of the intra-specific and inter-specific interaction strengths. Using estimates of model parameters, we developed a Risk Prediction Monitoring (RPM) tool that estimates temporal changes in persistence probabilities for any bacterial group of interest. This method mirrors approaches that are often used in conservation biology in which a measure of extinction risks is periodically updated with any change in a population or community. Additionally, we show how to use estimates of interaction strengths and persistence probabilities to formulate hypotheses regarding the molecular mechanisms and genetic composition that underpin different types of interactions. Instead of seeking a definition of "dysbiosis" we propose to translate concepts of theoretical ecology and conservation biology methods into practical approaches for the management of human-associated bacterial communities.
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Affiliation(s)
| | - Juan P. Gómez
- Departamento de Química y Biología, Universidad del Norte, Barranquilla, Colombia
| | - Jacques Ravel
- Institute for Genome Sciences and Department of Microbiology and Immunology, University of Maryland School of Medicine, Baltimore, MD
| | - Larry J. Forney
- Institute for Interdisciplinary Data Science and Department of Biological Sciences, University of Idaho, Moscow, ID
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4
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Poulsen JR, Maicher V, Malinowski H, DeSisto C. Situating defaunation in an operational framework to advance biodiversity conservation. Bioscience 2023; 73:721-727. [PMID: 37854893 PMCID: PMC10580966 DOI: 10.1093/biosci/biad079] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 10/20/2023] Open
Abstract
Anthropogenic pressures are causing the widespread loss of wildlife species and populations, with adverse consequences for ecosystem functioning. This phenomenon has been widely but inconsistently referred to as defaunation. A cohesive, quantitative framework for defining and evaluating defaunation is necessary for advancing biodiversity conservation. Likening defaunation to deforestation, we propose an operational framework for defaunation that defines it and related terms, situates defaunation relative to intact communities and faunal degradation, and encourages quantitative, ecologically reasonable, and equitable measurements. We distinguish between defaunation, the conversion of an ecosystem from having wild animals to not having wild animals, and faunal degradation, the process of losing animals or species from an animal community. The quantification of context-relevant defaunation boundaries or baselines is necessary to compare faunal communities over space and time. Situating a faunal community on the degradation curve can promote Global Biodiversity Framework targets, advancing the 2050 Vision for Biodiversity.
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Affiliation(s)
- John R Poulsen
- The Nature Conservancy, Boulder, Colorado, United States
- Duke University, Durham, North Carolina, United States
| | - Vincent Maicher
- CAFI Forest Research and Monitoring for The Nature Conservancy, Gabon
| | | | - Camille DeSisto
- Nicholas School of the Environment, Duke University, United States
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5
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Musgrove J, Gilbert F. Negative density-dependence buffers against mismatch-induced population decline in the Sinai baton blue butterfly. Oecologia 2023; 203:1-11. [PMID: 37733112 DOI: 10.1007/s00442-023-05449-z] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/19/2023] [Accepted: 09/08/2023] [Indexed: 09/22/2023]
Abstract
Phenological mismatches caused by climate change pose a major threat to global biodiversity, yet relatively few studies have reported population declines resulting from mismatch. It has been hypothesised that density effects may underlie this lack of observed responses by buffering against mismatch-induced population decline. We developed an individual-based model of the critically endangered Sinai baton blue butterfly (Pseudophilotes sinaicus) and its hostplant Sinai thyme (Thymus decussatus), parameterised using real field data, to test this hypothesis. Our model showed that the baton blue experiences demographic consequences under only 5 days of phenological mismatch, but that this threshold was increased to 14 days with the inclusion of density-dependent juvenile mortality. The inclusion of density effects also led to the replication of population cycles observed in nature, supporting the ability of our model to accurately represent the baton blue's ecology. These results add to a growing body of literature suggesting that density effects may underlie the observed lack of demographic responses to mismatch in wild populations. However, these buffers may be short-lived in extreme mismatch scenarios, providing a false sense of security against a looming threat of population collapse.
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Affiliation(s)
- Jamie Musgrove
- Department of Biology, McGill University, 1205 Avenue Docteur Penfield, Montréal, QC, H3A 1B1, Canada.
| | - Francis Gilbert
- School of Life Sciences, University Park, University of Nottingham, Nottingham, NG7 2RD, England
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Cowen S, Sims C, Ottewell K, Knox F, Friend T, Mills H, Garretson S, Rayner K, Gibson L. Return to 1616: Multispecies Fauna Reconstruction Requires Thinking Outside the Box. Animals (Basel) 2023; 13:2762. [PMID: 37685026 PMCID: PMC10486414 DOI: 10.3390/ani13172762] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/08/2023] [Revised: 08/01/2023] [Accepted: 08/03/2023] [Indexed: 09/10/2023] Open
Abstract
Conservation translocations have become increasingly popular for 'rewilding' areas that have lost their native fauna. These multispecies translocations are complex and need to consider the requirements of each individual species as well as the influence of likely interactions among them. The Dirk Hartog Island National Park Ecological Restoration Project, Return to 1616, aspires to restore ecological function to Western Australia's largest island. Since 2012, pest animals have been eradicated, and conservation translocations of seven fauna species have been undertaken, with a further six planned. Here, we present a synthesis of the innovative approaches undertaken in restoring the former faunal assemblage of Dirk Hartog Island and the key learnings gathered as the project has progressed.
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Affiliation(s)
- Saul Cowen
- Biodiversity and Conservation Science, Department of Biodiversity, Conservation and Attractions, Woodvale, WA 6026, Australia; (C.S.); (F.K.); (S.G.); (K.R.); (L.G.)
- School of Biological Sciences, University of Western Australia, Crawley, WA 6009, Australia
| | - Colleen Sims
- Biodiversity and Conservation Science, Department of Biodiversity, Conservation and Attractions, Woodvale, WA 6026, Australia; (C.S.); (F.K.); (S.G.); (K.R.); (L.G.)
| | - Kym Ottewell
- Biodiversity and Conservation Science, Department of Biodiversity, Conservation and Attractions, Kensington, WA 6151, Australia;
| | - Fiona Knox
- Biodiversity and Conservation Science, Department of Biodiversity, Conservation and Attractions, Woodvale, WA 6026, Australia; (C.S.); (F.K.); (S.G.); (K.R.); (L.G.)
- School of Veterinary Medicine, Murdoch University, Murdoch, WA 6150, Australia
| | - Tony Friend
- Biodiversity and Conservation Science, Department of Biodiversity, Conservation and Attractions, Albany, WA 6330, Australia;
| | - Harriet Mills
- Biodiversity and Conservation Science, Department of Biodiversity, Conservation and Attractions, South Perth, WA 6951, Australia;
| | - Sean Garretson
- Biodiversity and Conservation Science, Department of Biodiversity, Conservation and Attractions, Woodvale, WA 6026, Australia; (C.S.); (F.K.); (S.G.); (K.R.); (L.G.)
| | - Kelly Rayner
- Biodiversity and Conservation Science, Department of Biodiversity, Conservation and Attractions, Woodvale, WA 6026, Australia; (C.S.); (F.K.); (S.G.); (K.R.); (L.G.)
| | - Lesley Gibson
- Biodiversity and Conservation Science, Department of Biodiversity, Conservation and Attractions, Woodvale, WA 6026, Australia; (C.S.); (F.K.); (S.G.); (K.R.); (L.G.)
- School of Biological Sciences, University of Western Australia, Crawley, WA 6009, Australia
- Biodiversity and Conservation Science, Department of Biodiversity, Conservation and Attractions, Kensington, WA 6151, Australia;
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7
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Merli E, Mattioli L, Bassi E, Bongi P, Berzi D, Ciuti F, Luccarini S, Morimando F, Viviani V, Caniglia R, Galaverni M, Fabbri E, Scandura M, Apollonio M. Estimating Wolf Population Size and Dynamics by Field Monitoring and Demographic Models: Implications for Management and Conservation. Animals (Basel) 2023; 13:1735. [PMID: 37889658 PMCID: PMC10252110 DOI: 10.3390/ani13111735] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/24/2023] [Revised: 05/04/2023] [Accepted: 05/18/2023] [Indexed: 10/29/2023] Open
Abstract
We estimated the current size and dynamics of the wolf population in Tuscany and investigated the trends and demographic drivers of population changes. Estimates were obtained by two different approaches: (i) mixed-technique field monitoring (from 2014 to 2016) that found the minimum observed pack number and estimated population size, and (ii) an individual-based model (run by Vortex software v. 10.3.8.0) with demographic inputs derived from a local intensive study area and historic data on population size. Field monitoring showed a minimum population size of 558 wolves (SE = 12.005) in 2016, with a density of 2.74 individuals/100 km2. The population model described an increasing trend with an average annual rate of increase λ = 1.075 (SE = 0.014), an estimated population size of about 882 individuals (SE = 9.397) in 2016, and a density of 4.29 wolves/100 km2. Previously published estimates of wolf population were as low as 56.2% compared to our field monitoring estimation and 34.6% in comparison to our model estimation. We conducted sensitivity tests to analyze the key parameters driving population changes based on juvenile and adult mortality rates, female breeding success, and litter size. Mortality rates played a major role in determining intrinsic growth rate changes, with adult mortality accounting for 62.5% of the total variance explained by the four parameters. Juvenile mortality was responsible for 35.8% of the variance, while female breeding success and litter size had weak or negligible effects. We concluded that reliable estimates of population abundance and a deeper understanding of the role of different demographic parameters in determining population dynamics are crucial to define and carry out appropriate conservation and management strategies to address human-wildlife conflicts.
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Affiliation(s)
- Enrico Merli
- Department of Veterinary Medicine, University of Sassari, 07100 Sassari, Italy
| | - Luca Mattioli
- Wildlife Service, Tuscany Region, 50127 Florence, Italy
| | - Elena Bassi
- Department of Veterinary Medicine, University of Sassari, 07100 Sassari, Italy
| | - Paolo Bongi
- Department of Veterinary Medicine, University of Sassari, 07100 Sassari, Italy
| | - Duccio Berzi
- Department of Veterinary Medicine, University of Sassari, 07100 Sassari, Italy
| | - Francesca Ciuti
- Department of Veterinary Medicine, University of Sassari, 07100 Sassari, Italy
| | - Siriano Luccarini
- Department of Veterinary Medicine, University of Sassari, 07100 Sassari, Italy
| | - Federico Morimando
- Department of Veterinary Medicine, University of Sassari, 07100 Sassari, Italy
| | - Viviana Viviani
- Department of Veterinary Medicine, University of Sassari, 07100 Sassari, Italy
| | - Romolo Caniglia
- Unit for Conservation Genetics (BIO-CGE), Italian Institute for Environmental Protection and Research (ISPRA), 40064 Bologna, Italy
| | | | - Elena Fabbri
- Unit for Conservation Genetics (BIO-CGE), Italian Institute for Environmental Protection and Research (ISPRA), 40064 Bologna, Italy
| | - Massimo Scandura
- Department of Veterinary Medicine, University of Sassari, 07100 Sassari, Italy
| | - Marco Apollonio
- Department of Veterinary Medicine, University of Sassari, 07100 Sassari, Italy
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8
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Trouillier M, Meyer KM, Santini L, Pe'er G. A comparison of population viability measures. Ecol Evol 2023; 13:e9752. [PMID: 36713492 PMCID: PMC9873871 DOI: 10.1002/ece3.9752] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/05/2022] [Revised: 01/02/2023] [Accepted: 01/04/2023] [Indexed: 01/26/2023] Open
Abstract
The viability of populations can be quantified with several measures, such as the probability of extinction, the mean time to extinction, or the population size. While conservation management decisions can be based on these measures, it has not yet been explored systematically if different viability measures rank species and scenarios similarly and if one viability measure can be converted into another to compare studies. To address this challenge, we conducted a quantitative comparison of eight viability measures based on the simulated population dynamics of more than 4500 virtual species. We compared (a) the ranking of scenarios based on different viability measures, (b) assessed direct correlations between the measures, and (c) explored if parameters in the simulation models can alter the relationship between pairs of viability measures. We found that viability measures ranked species similarly. Despite this, direct correlations between the different measures were often weak and could not be generalized. This can be explained by the loss of information due to the aggregation of raw data into a single number, the effect of model parameters on the relationship between viability measures, and because distributions, such as the probability of extinction over time, cannot be ranked objectively. Similar scenario rankings by different viability measures show that the choice of the viability metric does in many cases not alter which population is regarded more viable or which management option is the best. However, the more two scenarios or populations differ, the more likely it becomes that different measures produce different rankings. We thus recommend that PVA studies publish raw simulation data, which not only describes all risks and opportunities to the reader but also facilitates meta-analyses of PVA studies.
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Affiliation(s)
- Mario Trouillier
- Institute for Botany and Landscape EcologyUniversity GreifswaldGreifswaldGermany,Department of Ecosystem ModellingUniversity of GöttingenGöttingenGermany
| | - Katrin M. Meyer
- Department of Ecosystem ModellingUniversity of GöttingenGöttingenGermany
| | - Luca Santini
- Department of Biology and Biotechnologies "Charles Darwin"Sapienza Università di RomaRomeItaly
| | - Guy Pe'er
- Department of Ecosystem ServicesUFZ ‐ Helmholtz Centre for Environmental ResearchLeipzigGermany,German Centre for Integrative Biodiversity Research (iDiv) Halle‐Jena‐LeipzigLeipzigGermany
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9
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Buschmann C, Böhner HG, Röder N. The cost of stabilising the German lapwing population: A bioeconomic study on lapwing population development and distribution using a cellular automaton. J Nat Conserv 2022. [DOI: 10.1016/j.jnc.2022.126314] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 12/12/2022]
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10
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Simberloff D. In Memoriam. Am Nat 2022; 200:627-633. [DOI: 10.1086/721257] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/03/2022]
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11
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Andersen D, Jang Y, Borzée A. Influence of landscape and connectivity on anuran conservation: population viability analyses to designate protected areas. Anim Conserv 2022. [DOI: 10.1111/acv.12829] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/30/2022]
Affiliation(s)
- D. Andersen
- Department of Life Science and Division of EcoScience Ewha Womans University Seoul Republic of Korea
| | - Y. Jang
- Department of Life Science and Division of EcoScience Ewha Womans University Seoul Republic of Korea
- Interdisciplinary Program of EcoCreative Ewha Womans University Seoul Republic of Korea
| | - A. Borzée
- Laboratory of Animal Behaviour and Conservation, College of Biology and the Environment Nanjing Forestry University Nanjing Jiangsu People's Republic of China
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12
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Onley IR, White LC, Moseby KE, Copley P, Cowen S. Disproportionate admixture improves reintroduction outcomes despite the use of low‐diversity source populations: population viability analysis for a translocation of the greater stick‐nest rat. Anim Conserv 2022. [DOI: 10.1111/acv.12812] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/28/2022]
Affiliation(s)
- I. R. Onley
- Australian Centre for Ancient DNA (ACAD), School of Biological Sciences University of Adelaide Adelaide SA Australia
| | - L. C. White
- Department of Primatology Max Planck Institute for Evolutionary Anthropology Leipzig Germany
| | - K. E. Moseby
- Centre for Ecosystem Sciences, Earth and Environmental Sciences University of New South Wales Sydney NSW Australia
| | - P. Copley
- South Australian Department for Environment and Water Adelaide SA Australia
| | - S. Cowen
- Biodiversity and Conservation Science, Department of Biodiversity, Conservation and Attractions Kensington WA Australia
- School of Biological Sciences University of Western Australia Crawley WA Australia
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13
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The abundance and persistence of Caprinae populations. Sci Rep 2022; 12:13807. [PMID: 35970998 PMCID: PMC9378773 DOI: 10.1038/s41598-022-17963-w] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/08/2021] [Accepted: 08/03/2022] [Indexed: 11/17/2022] Open
Abstract
Stable or growing populations may go extinct when their sizes cannot withstand large swings in temporal variation and stochastic forces. Hence, the minimum abundance threshold defining when populations can persist without human intervention forms a key conservation parameter. We identify this threshold for many populations of Caprinae, typically threatened species lacking demographic data. Doing so helps triage conservation and management actions for threatened or harvested populations. Methodologically, we used population projection matrices and simulations, with starting abundance, recruitment, and adult female survival predicting future abundance, growth rate (λ), and population trend. We incorporated mean demographic rates representative of Caprinae populations and corresponding variances from desert bighorn sheep (Ovis canadensis nelsoni), as a proxy for Caprinae sharing similar life histories. We found a population’s minimum abundance resulting in ≤ 0.01 chance of quasi-extinction (QE; population ≤ 5 adult females) in 10 years and ≤ 0.10 QE in 30 years as 50 adult females, or 70 were translocation (removals) pursued. Discovering the threshold required 3 demographic parameters. We show, however, that monitoring populations’ relationships to this threshold requires only abundance and recruitment data. This applied approach avoids the logistical and cost hurdles in measuring female survival, making assays of population persistence more practical.
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14
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Using predictions from multiple anthropogenic threats to estimate future population persistence of an imperiled species. Glob Ecol Conserv 2022. [DOI: 10.1016/j.gecco.2022.e02143] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/24/2022] Open
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15
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Jackson J, Le Coeur C, Jones O. Life-history predicts global population responses to the weather in terrestrial mammals. eLife 2022; 11:74161. [PMID: 35775734 PMCID: PMC9307275 DOI: 10.7554/elife.74161] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/23/2021] [Accepted: 06/30/2022] [Indexed: 11/26/2022] Open
Abstract
With the looming threat of abrupt ecological disruption due to a changing climate, predicting which species are most vulnerable to environmental change is critical. The life-history of a species is an evolved response to its environmental context, and therefore a promising candidate for explaining differences in climate-change responses. However, we need broad empirical assessments from across the world's ecosystems to explore the link between life history and climate-change responses. Here, we use long-term abundance records from 157 species of terrestrial mammals and a two-step Bayesian meta-regression framework to investigate the link between annual weather anomalies, population growth rates, and species-level life history. Overall, we found no directional effect of temperature or precipitation anomalies or variance on annual population growth rates. Furthermore, population responses to weather anomalies were not predicted by phylogenetic covariance, and instead there was more variability in weather responses for populations within a species. Crucially, however, long-lived mammals with smaller litter sizes had smaller absolute population responses to weather anomalies compared with their shorter living counterparts with larger litters. These results highlight the role of species-level life history in driving responses to the environment.
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Affiliation(s)
- John Jackson
- 2.Department of Zoology, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom
| | | | - Owen Jones
- Department of Biology, University of Southern Denmark, Odense, Denmark
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16
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Luck C, Jessopp M, Cronin M, Rogan E. Using population viability analysis to examine the potential long-term impact of fisheries bycatch on protected species. J Nat Conserv 2022. [DOI: 10.1016/j.jnc.2022.126157] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 10/19/2022]
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17
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Harvey Sky N, Jackson J, Chege G, Gaymer J, Kimiti D, Mutisya S, Nakito S, Shultz S. Female reproductive skew exacerbates the extinction risk from poaching in the eastern black rhino. Proc Biol Sci 2022; 289:20220075. [PMID: 35414243 PMCID: PMC9006021 DOI: 10.1098/rspb.2022.0075] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 01/19/2023] Open
Abstract
Variation in individual demographic rates can have large consequences for populations. Female reproductive skew is an example of structured demographic heterogeneity where females have intrinsic qualities that make them more or less likely to breed. The consequences of reproductive skew for population dynamics are poorly understood in non-cooperatively breeding mammals, especially when coupled with other drivers such as poaching. We address this knowledge gap with population viability analyses using an age-specific, female-only, individual-based, stochastic population model built with long-term data for three Kenyan populations of the Critically Endangered eastern black rhino (Diceros bicornis michaeli). There was substantial reproductive skew, with a high proportion of females not breeding or doing so at very low rates. This had a large impact on the projected population growth rate for the smaller population on Ol Jogi. Moreover, including female reproductive skew exacerbates the effects of poaching, increasing the probability of extinction by approximately 70% under a simulated poaching pressure of 5% offtake per year. Tackling the effects of reproductive skew depends on whether it is mediated by habitat or social factors, with potential strategies including habitat and biological management respectively. Investigating and tackling reproductive skew in other species requires long-term, individual-level data collection.
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Affiliation(s)
- Nick Harvey Sky
- Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences, University of Manchester, Manchester M13 9PL, UK.,North of England Zoological Society, Chester Zoo, Caughall Road, Chester CH2 1LH, UK
| | - John Jackson
- Department of Zoology, University of Oxford, Oxford OX1 3SZ, UK
| | - Geoffrey Chege
- Lewa Wildlife Conservancy, PO Box, Private Bag, Isiolo 60300, Kenya
| | | | - David Kimiti
- Grevy's Zebra Trust, PO Box 15351-00509, Nairobi, Kenya
| | | | - Simon Nakito
- Ol Pejeta Conservancy, PO Box 167, Nanyuki, Kenya
| | - Susanne Shultz
- Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences, University of Manchester, Manchester M13 9PL, UK
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Horswill C, Miller JAO, Wood MJ. Impact assessments of wind farms on seabird populations that overlook existing drivers of demographic change should be treated with caution. CONSERVATION SCIENCE AND PRACTICE 2022. [DOI: 10.1111/csp2.12644] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/26/2022] Open
Affiliation(s)
- Catharine Horswill
- ZSL Institute of Zoology London UK
- Centre for Biodiversity and Environmental Research, Department of Genetics, Evolution and Environment University College London London UK
- Department of Zoology University of Cambridge Cambridge UK
| | | | - Matt J. Wood
- School of Natural and Social Sciences University of Gloucestershire Cheltenham UK
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De la Cruz A, Bastos R, Silva E, Cabral JA, Santos M. What to expect from alternative management strategies to conserve seabirds? Hints from a dynamic modelling framework applied to an endangered population. Anim Conserv 2021. [DOI: 10.1111/acv.12751] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/28/2022]
Affiliation(s)
- A. De la Cruz
- Marine Research University Institute (INMAR) Campus of International Excellence of the Sea (CEIMAR) University of Cádiz Cádiz Spain
| | - R. Bastos
- Laboratory of Applied Ecology CITAB – Centre for the Research and Technology of Agro‐Environment and Biological Services Institute for Innovation Capacity Building and Sustainability of Agri‐food Production (Inov4Agro) University of Trás‐os‐Montes e Alto Douro Vila Real Portugal
| | - E. Silva
- Portuguese Society for the Study of Birds (SPEA) Lisboa Portugal
| | - J. A. Cabral
- Laboratory of Applied Ecology CITAB – Centre for the Research and Technology of Agro‐Environment and Biological Services Institute for Innovation Capacity Building and Sustainability of Agri‐food Production (Inov4Agro) University of Trás‐os‐Montes e Alto Douro Vila Real Portugal
| | - M. Santos
- Laboratory of Applied Ecology CITAB – Centre for the Research and Technology of Agro‐Environment and Biological Services Institute for Innovation Capacity Building and Sustainability of Agri‐food Production (Inov4Agro) University of Trás‐os‐Montes e Alto Douro Vila Real Portugal
- Laboratory of Ecology and Conservation Federal Institute of Education Science and Technology of Maranhão, R. Dep. Gastão Vieira Buriticupu MA Brazil
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20
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Lawson AJ, Folt B, Tucker AM, Erickson F, McGowan CP. Decision context as a necessary component of population viability analysis assessments: response to Chaudhary and Oli 2020. CONSERVATION BIOLOGY : THE JOURNAL OF THE SOCIETY FOR CONSERVATION BIOLOGY 2021; 35:1683-1685. [PMID: 34405454 DOI: 10.1111/cobi.13818] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/08/2020] [Revised: 10/16/2020] [Accepted: 10/20/2020] [Indexed: 06/13/2023]
Affiliation(s)
- Abigail J Lawson
- U.S. Geological Survey, Eastern Ecological Science Center at Patuxent Research Refuge, Laurel, Maryland, USA
| | - Brian Folt
- School of Forestry and Wildlife Sciences, Auburn University, Auburn, Alabama, USA
| | - Anna M Tucker
- U.S. Geological Survey, Eastern Ecological Science Center at Patuxent Research Refuge, Laurel, Maryland, USA
| | - Francesca Erickson
- School of Forestry and Wildlife Sciences, Auburn University, Auburn, Alabama, USA
| | - Conor P McGowan
- U.S. Geological Survey, Florida Cooperative Fish & Wildlife Research Unit, University of Florida, Florida, Gainesville, USA
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21
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Chaudhary V, Oli MK. False dichotomy in population viability analysis quality assessment: reply to Lawson et al. CONSERVATION BIOLOGY : THE JOURNAL OF THE SOCIETY FOR CONSERVATION BIOLOGY 2021; 35:1686-1688. [PMID: 34405449 DOI: 10.1111/cobi.13819] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/25/2021] [Revised: 07/02/2021] [Accepted: 07/07/2021] [Indexed: 06/13/2023]
Affiliation(s)
- Vratika Chaudhary
- Department of Wildlife Ecology and Conservation, University of Florida, Gainesville, Florida, USA
| | - Madan K Oli
- Department of Wildlife Ecology and Conservation, University of Florida, Gainesville, Florida, USA
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22
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Katzenberger J, Gottschalk E, Balkenhol N, Waltert M. Density‐dependent age of first reproduction as a key factor for population dynamics: stable breeding populations mask strong floater declines in a long‐lived raptor. Anim Conserv 2021. [DOI: 10.1111/acv.12687] [Citation(s) in RCA: 4] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/29/2022]
Affiliation(s)
- Jakob Katzenberger
- Dachverband Deutscher Avifaunisten (DDA) e.V. Münster Germany
- Workgroup on Endangered Species J.F. Blumenbach Institute of Zoology and Anthropology University of Goettingen Göttingen Germany
| | - Eckhard Gottschalk
- Workgroup on Endangered Species J.F. Blumenbach Institute of Zoology and Anthropology University of Goettingen Göttingen Germany
| | - Niko Balkenhol
- Wildlife Sciences University of Goettingen Göttingen Germany
| | - Matthias Waltert
- Workgroup on Endangered Species J.F. Blumenbach Institute of Zoology and Anthropology University of Goettingen Göttingen Germany
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23
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Folt B, Goessling JM, Tucker A, Guyer C, Hermann S, Shelton‐Nix E, McGowan C. Contrasting Patterns of Demography and Population Viability Among Gopher Tortoise Populations in Alabama. J Wildl Manage 2021. [DOI: 10.1002/jwmg.21996] [Citation(s) in RCA: 7] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/06/2022]
Affiliation(s)
- Brian Folt
- Alabama Cooperative Fish and Wildlife Research Unit, 3305 School of Forestry and Wildlife Sciences Auburn University Auburn AL 36849 USA
| | - Jeffrey M. Goessling
- Eckerd College, 075 James Center for Molecular and Life Sciences St. Petersburg FL 33711 USA
| | - Anna Tucker
- U.S. Geological Survey, Patuxent Wildlife Research Center, 12100 Beech Forest Road Laurel MD 20708 USA
| | - Craig Guyer
- Department of Biological Sciences and Auburn University Museum of Natural History, 331 Funchess Hall Auburn University Auburn AL 36849 USA
| | - Sharon Hermann
- Department of Biological Sciences, 331 Funchess Hall Auburn University Auburn AL 36849 USA
| | - Ericha Shelton‐Nix
- Alabama Department of Conservation and Natural Resources 64 Union Street Montgomery AL 36130 USA
| | - Conor McGowan
- U.S. Geological Survey, Alabama Cooperative Fish and Wildlife Research Unit, School of Forestry and Wildlife Sciences Auburn University Auburn AL 36849 USA
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Leins JA, Banitz T, Grimm V, Drechsler M. High-resolution PVA along large environmental gradients to model the combined effects of climate change and land use timing: lessons from the large marsh grasshopper. Ecol Modell 2021. [DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2020.109355] [Citation(s) in RCA: 4] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 10/22/2022]
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25
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Ridley AR, Wiley EM, Bourne AR, Cunningham SJ, Nelson-Flower MJ. Understanding the potential impact of climate change on the behavior and demography of social species: The pied babbler (Turdoides bicolor) as a case study. ADVANCES IN THE STUDY OF BEHAVIOR 2021. [DOI: 10.1016/bs.asb.2021.03.005] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 12/14/2022]
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26
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Shefferson RP, Kurokawa S, Ehrlén J. lefko3
: Analysing individual history through size‐classified matrix population models. Methods Ecol Evol 2020. [DOI: 10.1111/2041-210x.13526] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 02/03/2023]
Affiliation(s)
| | - Shun Kurokawa
- Graduate School of Arts and Sciences University of Tokyo Tokyo Japan
| | - Johan Ehrlén
- Department of Ecology, Environment, and Plant Sciences Stockholm University Stockholm Sweden
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Stewart FEC, Nowak JJ, Micheletti T, McIntire EJB, Schmiegelow FKA, Cumming SG. Boreal Caribou Can Coexist with Natural but Not Industrial Disturbances. J Wildl Manage 2020. [DOI: 10.1002/jwmg.21937] [Citation(s) in RCA: 12] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/09/2022]
Affiliation(s)
- Frances E. C. Stewart
- Canadian Forest Service, Natural Resources Canada 506 Burnside Road W Victoria British Columbia V8Z 4N9 Canada
| | | | - Tatiane Micheletti
- University of British Columbia, Faculty of Forestry 2424 Main Mall Vancouver British Columbia V6T 1Z4 Canada
| | - Eliot J. B. McIntire
- Canadian Forest Service, Natural Resources Canada 506 Burnside Road W Victoria British Columbia V8Z 4N9 Canada
| | - Fiona K. A. Schmiegelow
- University of Alberta, Department of Renewable Resources 705A General Services Building Edmonton Alberta T6G 2H1 Canada
| | - Steven G. Cumming
- Laval University, Department of Wood and Forest Science 2405, rue de la Terrasse, Quebec City Quebec G1V 0A6 Canada
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