Multispecies conservation of freshwater fish assemblages in response to climate change in the southeastern United States

Impacts of climate change on aquatic insects in temperate alpine regions: Complementary modeling approaches applied to Swiss rivers

Freshwater biodiversity loss is a major concern, and global warming is already playing a significant role in species extinctions. Our main goal was to predict climate change impacts on aquatic insect species distribution and richness in Swiss running waters according to two climate change scenarios (RCP2.6 and RCP8.5), using different modeling approaches, that is, species distribution models (SDMs), stacked-SDMs (S-SDMs) and a macroecological model (MEM). We analyzed 10,808 reaches, used as spatial units for model predictions, for a total river network length of 20,610 km. Results were assessed at both the countrywide and the biogeographic regional scales. We used incidence data of 41 species of Ephemeroptera, Plecoptera and Trichoptera (EPT) from 259 sites distributed across Switzerland. We integrated a coupled model for hydrology and glacier retreat to simulate monthly time-step discharge from which we derived hydrological variables. These, along with thermal, land-cover, topographic and spatially explicit data, served as predictors for our ecological models. Predictions of occurrence probabilities and EPT richness were compared among the different regions, periods and scenarios. A Shiny web application was developed to interactively explore all the models' details, to ensure transparency and promote the sharing of information. MEM and S-SDMs approaches consistently showed that overall, climate change is likely to reduce EPT richness. Decrease could be around 10% in the least conservative scenario, depending on the region. Global warming was shown to represent a threat to species from high elevation, but in terms of species richness, running waters from lowlands and medium elevation seemed more vulnerable. Finally, our results suggested that the effects of anthropogenic activities could overweight natural factors in shaping the future of river biodiversity.

Conserving stream fishes with changing climate: Assessing fish responses to changes in habitat over a large region

Changes in climate are known to alter air temperature and precipitation and their associated thermal and hydrological regimes of freshwater systems, and such alterations in habitat are anticipated to modify fish composition in fluvial systems. Despite these expected changes, assessing climate change effects on habitat and fish over large regions has proven challenging. The goal of this study is to describe an approach to assess and identify stream reaches within a large region that are susceptible to climate changes based on responses of multiple fish species to changes in thermal and hydrological habitats occurring with changes in climate. We present a six-step approach to connect climate, habitat, and fish responses, demonstrated through an example to assess effects of climate change on fishes for all stream reaches in a large U.S. ecoregion (955,029 km²). Step 1 identified measures of air temperature and precipitation expected to change substantially in the future. Step 2 identified the climatic measures strongly associated with stream thermal and hydrologic metrics calculated from measured data from a subset of streams. Step 3 linked thermal and hydrologic metrics identified in Step 2 with abundances of fish species from the same stream reaches, and these fishes were combined into groups based on similar associations with specific thermal or hydrologic metrics. Step 4 used the linkages between fish groups and climatic measures and their associated thermal and hydrologic metrics to classify stream reaches. Step 5 assigned all stream reaches into classes based on the established classification under current climate measures and then re-assigned all stream reaches using projected climatic measures for three future time windows. Step 6 assessed changes in classes of stream reaches between current and future climate conditions. Stream reaches projected to change in stream classes were considered "vulnerable" to future climate change, as they would no longer support the same fish composition. The projected vulnerable streams for the years 2040, 2060, and 2090 were mapped and summarized to identify temporal patterns and identify their spatial distribution, along with underlying mechanisms leading to changes. Our results showed that 45.7% of the 320,000 reaches and 49.3% of the overall 650,000 km stream length in the study region were expected to change stream class by the year 2090, with spatially-explicit changes including streams' responding to changing air temperature or precipitation. This study provides critical guidance for integrating climate projections, landscape factors, stream habitat data, and fish data into a meaningful approach for understanding linkage. Outcomes greatly improve our ability to describe habitat changes at a stream reach scale throughout large regions, and they can aid in prioritizing management strategies to adapt to climate change at local and regional scales.