The impacts of extreme climate change on mammals differ among functional groups at regional scale: The case of Iranian terrestrial mammals

Climate change impacts on altitudinal movements of society large mammals in the Alborz

This study examines the impact of climate change on the altitudinal movement patterns and number of individuals of four large mammal species within the Central Alborz Protected Area (CAPA) region of the Alborz Mountains, a biodiversity hotspot, over a 23-year period (1999 to 2022). During the warm season (May 25-September 29), temperatures were reported to have increased by 2-2.5 °C, while relative humidity was observed to have decreased by 4-4.5%. Compared to the past two decades (2000-2022), Caspian red deer were observed to initiate their annual high-altitude migrations 15-20 days earlier, with the number of individuals in the summer range increasing more than threefold. Wild goats also migrated earlier, with peak arrivals increasing from 20-36 (1999-2003) to 36-57 (2018-2022) between May 25 and May 31, highlighting temperature as the primary driver of herbivore movement. In contrast, brown bears exhibited more subtle altitudinal movement, likely influenced by both temperature and humidity. Wild boars, with an approximate 40% increase in the number of individuals, tended to return to lower elevations earlier than in previous years (1999-2003). These patterns highlight the role of climate as a significant regulator of movement ecology, influencing high-altitude habitat use. However, human-induced barriers, such as roads and settlements, present additional threats to these seasonal migrations. This underscores the urgent need for adaptive management strategies, including the protection of movement corridors, the expansion of core zones, and enhanced community engagement, to support the resilience of these species under changing climatic conditions.

Insufficient and biased representation of species geographic responses to climate change

The geographic redistributions of species due to a rapidly changing climate are poised to perturb ecological communities and significantly impact ecosystems and human livelihoods. Effectively managing these biological impacts requires a thorough understanding of the patterns and processes of species geographic range shifts. While substantial recent redistributions have been identified and recognized to vary by taxon, region, and range geometry, there are large gaps and biases in the available evidence. Here, we use the largest compilation of geographic range change observations to date, comprised of 33,016 potential redistributions across 12,009 species, to formally assess within- and cross-species coverage and biases and to motivate future data collection. We find that species coverage varies strongly by taxon and underrepresents species at high and low latitudes. Within species, assessments of potential redistributions came from parts of their geographic range that were highly uneven and non-representative. For most species and taxa, studies were strongly biased toward the colder parts of species' distributions and thus significantly underrepresented populations that might get pushed beyond their maximum temperature limits. Coverage of potential leading and trailing geographic range edges under a changing climate was similarly uneven. Only 8% of studied species were assessed at both high and low latitude and elevation range edges, with most only covered at one edge. This suggests that substantial within-species biases exacerbate the considerable geographic and taxonomic among-species unevenness in evidence. Our results open the door for a more quantitative accounting for existing knowledge biases in climate change ecology and a more informed management and conservation. Our findings offer guidance for future data collection that better addresses information gaps and provides a more effective foundation for managing the biological impacts of climate change.

Assessing Surveillance of Wildlife Diseases by Determining Mammal Species Vulnerability to Climate Change

Climate change is one of the drivers of wildlife-borne disease emergence, as it can affect species abundance and fitness, host immunocompetence, and interactions with pathogens. To detect emerging wildlife-borne diseases, countries may implement general wildlife-disease surveillance systems. Such surveillance exists in the Netherlands. However, it is unclear how well it covers host species vulnerable to climate change and consequently disease emergence in these species. Therefore, we performed a trait-based vulnerability assessment (TVA) to quantify species vulnerability to climate change for 59 Dutch terrestrial mammals. Species' vulnerability was estimated based on the magnitude of climatic change within the species' distribution (exposure), the species' potential to persist in situ (sensitivity), and the species' ability to adjust (adaptive capacity). Using these vulnerability categories, we identified priority species at risk for disease emergence due to climate change. Subsequently, we assessed the frequency of occurrence of these priority species compared to other mammal species examined in general wildlife disease surveillance during 2008-2022. We identified 25% of the mammal species to be highly exposed, 24% to be highly sensitive, and 22% to have a low adaptive capacity. The whiskered myotis and the garden dormouse were highly vulnerable (i.e., highly exposed, highly sensitive, and low adaptive capacity), but they are rare in the Netherlands. The Western barbastelle, the pond bat, and the Daubenton's myotis were potential adapters (highly exposed, highly sensitive, and high adaptive capacity). Species vulnerable to climate change were relatively poorly represented in current general surveillance. Our research shows a comprehensive approach that considers both exposures to climate change and ecological factors to assess vulnerability. TVAs, as presented in this study, can easily be adapted to include extra drivers and species, and we would therefore recommend surveillance institutes to consider integrating these types of assessments for evaluating and improving surveillance for wildlife-borne disease emergence.

How Does Changing Environment Influence Plant Seed Movements as Populations of Dispersal Vectors Decline?

Plants differ widely in their ability to find tolerable climatic ranges through seed dispersal, depending on their life-history traits and habitat characteristics. Following the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA) guidelines, a systematic review on seed dispersal mechanisms was conducted to elucidate plant seed movements amid changing environments. Here, the highest relative count of studies was found in Spain (16.47%), followed by Brazil (14.12%), and the USA (14.12%). The megadiverse, hotspot countries (e.g., Philippines, Vietnam, Myanmar, India, and Indonesia) and Africa (Tanzania, South Africa, Democratic Republic of the Congo) have very low to no data about the reviewed topic. The effects of land use changes, habitat degradation/disturbances, climate, and extreme weather conditions on seed dispersal mechanisms and agents had the highest share of studies across topics and countries. Plant diversity and distribution of anemochorous, endozoochorous, epizoochorous, hydrochorous, myrmecochorous, and ornithochorous species are seriously affected by changing environments due to altered long-distance seed dispersal. The fruit types commonly associated with endozoochory and ornithochory are species with achene, capsule, drupe, fleshy, and nut fruits/seeds, whereas achene, capsule, samara/winged seeds are associated with anemochory. The present review provides a summary of evidence on how plants are affected by climate change as populations of dispersal vectors decline. Finally, recommendations for further study were made based on the identified knowledge gaps.

Modeling climate change impacts on the distribution of an endangered brown bear population in its critical habitat in Iran

Climate change is one of the major challenges to the current conservation of biodiversity. Here, by using the brown bear, Ursus arctos, in the southernmost limit of its global distribution as a model species, we assessed the impact of climate change on the species distribution in western Iran. The mountainous forests of Iran are inhabited by small and isolated populations of brown bears that are prone to extinction in the near future. We modeled the potential impact of climate change on brown bear distribution and habitat connectivity by the years 2050 and 2070 under four representative concentration pathways (RCPs) of two general circulation models (GCMs): BCC-CSM1-1 and MRI-CGCM3. Our projections revealed that the current species' range, which encompasses 6749.8 km² (40.8%) of the landscape, will decline by 10% (2050: RCP2.6, MRI-CGCM3) to 45% (2070: RCP8.5, BCC-CSM1-1). About 1850 km² (27.4%) of the current range is covered by a network of conservation (CAs) and no-hunting (NHAs) areas which are predicted to decline by 0.64% (2050: RCP2.6, MRI-CGCM3) to 15.56% (2070: RCP8.5, BCC-CSM1-1) due to climate change. The loss of suitable habitats falling within the network of CAs and NHAs is a conservation challenge for brown bears because it may lead to bears moving outside the CAs and NHAs and result in subsequent increases in the levels of bear-human conflict. Thus, re-evaluation of the network of CAs and NHAs, establishing more protected areas in suitable landscapes, and conserving vital linkages between habitat patches under future climate change scenarios are crucial strategies to conserve and manage endangered populations of the brown bear.