Microclimate reveals the true thermal niche of forest plant species

Vulnerability of biodiversity to social and ecological stressors in the Yarlung Tsangpo River Basin

Biodiversity is vital to the sustainable future of human beings, yet environmental changes and anthropogenic activities cause an alarming rate of species extinction globally, threatening the conservation of biodiversity. Here, we assessed the vulnerabilities of one of the most biodiverse but also most fragile ecosystems in the world, the Yarlung Tsangpo River Basin (YTRB), to multiple ecological and social stressors. We conducted an indicator-based assessment to quantify the vulnerability of the YTRB to multiple social and ecological stressors; and evaluated the interactions among aspects of vulnerabilities by comparing their spatial patterns. Our results show that areas with the highest ecological vulnerabilities were highly clustered, and the most critical determinants for ecological vulnerability were temperature and precipitation variations. Also, increases in population density and high human footprint were the most vulnerable aspects of social vulnerability, accounting for 39 % and 31 % of the total area. Spatial patterns of social and ecological vulnerabilities were different. Areas with high ecological vulnerability were mostly observed in the west and north part of the basin; whereas high social vulnerabilities mostly along the central river and the southeast part. The selected ten variables representing social and ecological vulnerabilities were highly independent, especially the four variables relating to social vulnerability. Our results reveal significant conflicts between conservation and development because of the large areas showing high social and ecological vulnerabilities (22 % of the entire area). For the part of the YTRB belonging to the global biodiversity hotspots, also being the forested areas, the most vulnerable ecological aspect was vegetation loss, rather than climate variations. Our study provides a temporally dynamic and spatially explicit evaluation of social and ecological vulnerabilities of the YTRB, contributing to informed decision-making to sustain the biodiversity of this highly fragile ecosystem, meaningful to global biodiversity conservation.

The ecology of plant extinctions

Extinctions occur when enough individual plants die without replacement to extirpate a population, and all populations are extirpated. While the ultimate drivers of plant extinctions are known, the proximate mechanisms at individual and population level are not. The fossil record supports climate change as the major driver until recently, with land-use change dominating in recent millennia. Climate change may regain its leading role later this century. Documented recent extinctions have been few and concentrated among narrow-range species, but population extirpations are frequent. Predictions for future extinctions often use flawed methods, but more than half of all plants could be threatened by the end of this century. We need targeted interventions tailored to the needs of each threatened species.

Factors accounting for limited sexual reproduction in a long-lived unisexual plant species

Introduction

Plant dispersal directly depends on reproduction success, and hence, on sexual systems. In bryophytes, wherein fertilization involves a continuous film of water between male and female sexual organs, reproduction in unisexual species involves the sympatric distribution of male and female sex-expressing individuals. Here, we determine whether these conditions are controlled by the environment. In particular, we test the hypotheses that (i) sex-expressing males and females exhibit different ecological niches and (ii) environmental variation drives sex expression, sporophyte formation, and hence, dispersal capacities.

Methods

We scored 1,080 specimens of the unisexual moss Abietinella abietina across Sweden as non-sex expressing, expressing female or male, or sporophytic. We tested whether reproductive stages were related to latitude. Topography and climatic conditions at 1-km resolution were employed to measure niche overlap between (i) sex-expressing and non-expressing and (ii) male and female specimens. We finally modelled sex expression and sporophyte production depending on these topo-climatic predictors.

Results

Among the 63% of reproductive samples across the entire latitudinal gradient, females outnumbered males by a factor 5.6, and 8% of the female samples bore sporophytes. Although the distribution of the sexes was not explained by topo-climatic variables, the probability of sex-expressing samples being male increased with latitude. It resulted in a higher regional sex ratio in the North than in southern regions. Successful sexual reproduction, in terms of sporophyte occurrence, was confined to central Sweden. It was predicted by intermediate to increasing precipitation seasonality and intermediate temperature values.

Discussion

Despite a high level of sex-expression, and no significant differences of niche preference between males and females, sporophyte occurrences were rare. Our results suggest that sporophyte formation was determined by mate availability and macro-climatic conditions, the latter possibly affecting fertilization success. We further infer that environmental conditions at the pre-zygotic stage have lower than expected effects on the overall distribution of this moss. Modelling environmental data at higher resolution, smaller scale and expanding geographic coverage to include more sporophyte occurrences, and comparing genetic diversity in sporophytic with non-sporophytic populations, are future lines of this research.

Clustered warming tolerances and the nonlinear risks of biodiversity loss on a warming planet

Anthropogenic climate change is projected to become a major driver of biodiversity loss, destabilizing the ecosystems on which human society depends. As the planet rapidly warms, the disruption of ecological interactions among populations, species and their environment, will likely drive positive feedback loops, accelerating the pace and magnitude of biodiversity losses. We propose that, even without invoking such amplifying feedback, biodiversity loss should increase nonlinearly with warming because of the non-uniform distribution of biodiversity. Whether these non-uniformities are the uneven distribution of populations across a species' thermal niche, or the uneven distribution of thermal niche limits among species within an ecological community, we show that in both cases, the resulting clustering in population warming tolerances drives nonlinear increases in the risk to biodiversity. We discuss how fundamental constraints on species' physiologies and geographical distributions give rise to clustered warming tolerances, and how population responses to changing climates could variously temper, delay or intensify nonlinear dynamics. We argue that nonlinear increases in risks to biodiversity should be the null expectation under warming, and highlight the empirical research needed to understand the causes, commonness and consequences of clustered warming tolerances to better predict where, when and why nonlinear biodiversity losses will occur.This article is part of the discussion meeting issue 'Bending the curve towards nature recovery: building on Georgina Mace's legacy for a biodiverse future'.

Effects of climate and forest development on habitat specialization and biodiversity in Central European mountain forests

Mountain forests are biodiversity hotspots with competing hypotheses proposed to explain elevational trends in habitat specialization and species richness. The altitudinal-niche-breadth hypothesis suggests decreasing specialization with elevation, which could lead to decreasing species richness and weaker differences in species richness and beta diversity among habitat types with increasing elevation. Testing these predictions for bacteria, fungi, plants, arthropods, and vertebrates, we found decreasing habitat specialization (represented by forest developmental stages) with elevation in mountain forests of the Northern Alps - supporting the altitudinal-niche-breadth hypothesis. Species richness decreased with elevation only for arthropods, whereas changes in beta diversity varied among taxa. Along the forest developmental gradient, species richness mainly followed a U-shaped pattern which remained stable along elevation. This highlights the importance of early and late developmental stages for biodiversity and indicates that climate change may alter community composition not only through distributional shifts along elevation but also across forest developmental stages.

Potential migration pathways of broadleaved trees across the receding boreal biome under future climate change

Climate change has triggered poleward expansions in the distributions of various taxonomic groups, including tree species. Given the ecological significance of trees as keystone species in forests and their socio-economic importance, projecting the potential future distributions of tree species is crucial for devising effective adaptation strategies for both biomass production and biodiversity conservation in future forest ecosystems. Here, we fitted physiographically informed habitat suitability models (HSMs) at 50-m resolution across Sweden (55-68° N) to estimate the potential northward expansion of seven broadleaved tree species within their leading-edge distributions in Europe under different future climate change scenarios and for different time periods. Overall, we observed that minimum temperature was the most crucial variable for comprehending the spatial distribution of broadleaved tree species at their cold limits. Our HSMs projected a complex range expansion pattern for 2100, with individualistic differences among species. However, a frequent and rather surprising pattern was a northward expansion along the east coast followed by narrow migration pathways along larger valleys towards edaphically suitable areas in the north-west, where most of the studied species were predicted to expand. The high-resolution maps generated in this study offer valuable insights for our understanding of range shift dynamics at the leading edge of southern tree species as they expand into the receding boreal biome. These maps suggest areas where broadleaved tree species could already be translocated to anticipate forest and biodiversity conservation adaptation efforts in the face of future climate change.

Significant shifts in latitudinal optima of North American birds

Changes in climate can alter environmental conditions faster than most species can adapt. A prediction under a warming climate is that species will shift their distributions poleward through time. While many studies focus on range shifts, latitudinal shifts in species' optima can occur without detectable changes in their range. We quantified shifts in latitudinal optima for 209 North American bird species over the last 55 y. The latitudinal optimum (m) for each species in each year was estimated using a bespoke flexible non-linear zero-inflated model of abundance vs. latitude, and the annual shift in m through time was quantified. One-third (70) of the bird species showed a significant shift in their optimum. Overall, mean peak abundances of North American birds have shifted northward, on average, at a rate of 1.5 km per year (±0.58 SE), corresponding to a total distance moved of 82.5 km (±31.9 SE) over the last 55 y. Stronger poleward shifts at the continental scale were linked to key species' traits, including thermal optimum, habitat specialization, and territoriality. Shifts in the western region were larger and less variable than in the eastern region, and they were linked to species' thermal optimum, habitat density preference, and habitat specialization. Individual species' latitudinal shifts were most strongly linked to their estimated thermal optimum, clearly indicating a climate-driven response. Displacement of species from their historically optimal realized niches can have dramatic ecological consequences. Effective conservation must consider within-range abundance shifts. Areas currently deemed "optimal" are unlikely to remain so.

Microclimate modulation: An overlooked mechanism influencing the impact of plant diversity on ecosystem functioning

Changes in climate and biodiversity are widely recognized as primary global change drivers of ecosystem structure and functioning, also affecting ecosystem services provided to human populations. Increasing plant diversity not only enhances ecosystem functioning and stability but also mitigates climate change effects and buffers extreme weather conditions, yet the underlying mechanisms remain largely unclear. Recent studies have shown that plant diversity can mitigate climate change (e.g. reduce temperature fluctuations or drought through microclimatic effects) in different compartments of the focal ecosystem, which as such may contribute to the effect of plant diversity on ecosystem properties and functioning. However, these potential plant diversity-induced microclimate effects are not sufficiently understood. Here, we explored the consequences of climate modulation through microclimate modification by plant diversity for ecosystem functioning as a potential mechanism contributing to the widely documented biodiversity-ecosystem functioning (BEF) relationships, using a combination of theoretical and simulation approaches. We focused on a diverse set of response variables at various levels of integration ranging from ecosystem-level carbon exchange to soil enzyme activity, including population dynamics and the activity of specific organisms. Here, we demonstrated that a vegetation layer composed of many plant species has the potential to influence ecosystem functioning and stability through the modification of microclimatic conditions, thus mitigating the negative impacts of climate extremes on ecosystem functioning. Integrating microclimatic processes (e.g. temperature, humidity and light modulation) as a mechanism contributing to the BEF relationships is a promising avenue to improve our understanding of the effects of climate change on ecosystem functioning and to better predict future ecosystem structure, functioning and services. In addition, microclimate management and monitoring should be seen as a potential tool by practitioners to adapt ecosystems to climate change.

Cliff-edge forests: Xerothermic hotspots of local biodiversity and models for future climate change

Cliffs are remarkable environments that enable the existence of microclimates. These small, isolated sites, decoupled from the regional macroclimate, play a significant role in maintaining species biodiversity, particularly in topographically homogeneous landscapes. Our study investigated the microclimate of south-exposed forests situated at the edge of sandstone cliffs in the western part of the North Alpine Foreland Basin in Switzerland and its role in local forest community composition. Using direct measurements from data loggers, as well as vegetation analyses, it was possible to quantify the microclimate of the cliff-edge forests and compare it with that of the surrounding forests. Our results highlighted the significant xerothermic and more variable nature of the cliff-edge forest microclimate, with a mean soil temperature up to 3.72°C warmer in the summer, higher annual (+28%) and daily (+250%) amplitudes of soil temperature, which frequently expose vegetation to extreme temperatures, and an 83% higher soil drying rate. These differences have a distinct influence on forest communities: cliff-edge forests are significantly different from surrounding forests. The site particularities of cliff edges support the presence of locally rare species and forest types, particularly of Scots pine. Cliff edges must therefore be considered microrefugia with a high conservation value for both xerothermic species and flora adapted to more continental climates. Moreover, the microclimate of cliff-edge forests could resemble the future climate in many ways. We argue that these small areas, which are already experiencing the future climate, can be seen as natural laboratories to better answer the following question: what will our forests look like in a few decades with accelerated climate change?

Using warming tolerances to predict understory plant responses to climate change

Climate change is pushing species towards and potentially beyond their critical thermal limits. The extent to which species can cope with temperatures exceeding their critical thermal limits is still uncertain. To better assess species' responses to warming, we compute the warming tolerance (ΔTniche ) as a thermal vulnerability index, using species' upper thermal limits (the temperature at the warm limit of their distribution range) minus the local habitat temperature actually experienced at a given location. This metric is useful to predict how much more warming species can tolerate before negative impacts are expected to occur. Here we set up a cross-continental transplant experiment involving five regions distributed along a latitudinal gradient across Europe (43° N-61° N). Transplant sites were located in dense and open forests stands, and at forest edges and in interiors. We estimated the warming tolerance for 12 understory plant species common in European temperate forests. During 3 years, we examined the effects of the warming tolerance of each species across all transplanted locations on local plant performance, in terms of survival, height, ground cover, flowering probabilities and flower number. We found that the warming tolerance (ΔTniche ) of the 12 studied understory species was significantly different across Europe and varied by up to 8°C. In general, ΔTniche were smaller (less positive) towards the forest edge and in open stands. Plant performance (growth and reproduction) increased with increasing ΔTniche across all 12 species. Our study demonstrated that ΔTniche of understory plant species varied with macroclimatic differences among regions across Europe, as well as in response to forest microclimates, albeit to a lesser extent. Our findings support the hypothesis that plant performance across species decreases in terms of growth and reproduction as local temperature conditions reach or exceed the warm limit of the focal species.