Quantification and decomposition of environment-selection relationships

Context-dependent conflicting selection on flowering phenology

Climate change will affect precipitation and water availability in natural plant populations, potentially influencing phenology, fitness and natural selection. To examine how water availability affects non-pollinator- and pollinator-mediated selection on flowering phenology in Primula tibetica, we manipulated pollination at three sites that differed in soil water content (low, medium and high) in a single common garden. We detected conflicting selections on phenology. At low water content, there was pollinator-mediated selection for earlier flowering start and non-pollinator-mediated selection for later start. At medium water content, pollinators selected for shorter flowering duration and non-pollinator agents for longer duration. The opposing selection resulted in no statistically significant net selection on phenology. Non-pollinator-mediated selection differed between sites, and changes in trait-fitness relationships among hand-pollinated plants were mainly driving variation in selection on phenology. The results indicate that soil water content primarily affects selection on phenology via resource uptake, and are consistent with higher pollinator abundance or constancy early in the flowering season. The study highlights that both flowering start and duration can be targets of selection, that phenology may be subject to conflicting selection from pollinators and other agents, and that the evolution of flowering time in response to pollinator-mediated selection can be constrained by climate.

The concept of critical age group for density dependence: bridging the gap between demographers, evolutionary biologists and behavioural ecologists

Density dependence plays an important role in population regulation in the wild. It involves a decrease in population growth rate when the population size increases. Fifty years ago, Charlesworth introduced the concept of 'critical age group', denoting the age classes in which variation in the number of individuals most strongly contributes to density regulation. Since this pioneering work, this concept has rarely been used. In light of Charlesworth's concept, we discuss the need to develop work between behavioural ecology, demography and evolutionary biology to better understand the mechanisms acting in density-regulated age-structured populations. We highlight demographic studies that explored age-specific contributions to density dependence and discuss the underlying evolutionary processes. Understanding competitive interactions among individuals is pivotal to identify the ages contributing most strongly to density regulation, highlighting the need to move towards behavioural ecology to decipher mechanisms acting in density-regulated age-structured populations. Because individual characteristics other than age can be linked to competitive abilities, expanding the concept of critical age to other structures (e.g. sex, dominance rank) offers interesting perspectives. Linking research fields based on the concept of the critical age group is key to move from a pattern-oriented view of density regulation to a process-oriented approach.This article is part of the discussion meeting issue 'Understanding age and society using natural populations'.

Meta-analytical evidence for frequency-dependent selection across the tree of life

Explaining the maintenance of genetic variation in fitness-related traits within populations is a fundamental challenge in ecology and evolutionary biology. Frequency-dependent selection (FDS) is one mechanism that can maintain such variation, especially when selection favours rare variants (negative FDS). However, our general knowledge about the occurrence of FDS, its strength and direction remain fragmented, limiting general inferences about this important evolutionary process. We systematically reviewed the published literature on FDS and assembled a database of 747 effect sizes from 101 studies to analyse the occurrence, strength, and direction of FDS, and the factors that could explain heterogeneity in FDS. Using a meta-analysis, we found that overall, FDS is more commonly negative, although not significantly when accounting for phylogeny. An analysis of absolute values of effect sizes, however, revealed the widespread occurrence of modest FDS. However, negative FDS was only significant in laboratory experiments and non-significant in mesocosms and field-based studies. Moreover, negative FDS was stronger in studies measuring fecundity and involving resource competition over studies using other fitness components or focused on other ecological interactions. Our study unveils key general patterns of FDS and points in future promising research directions that can help us understand a long-standing fundamental problem in evolutionary biology and its consequences for demography and ecological dynamics.

The magnitude of selection on growth varies among years and increases under warming conditions in a subarctic seabird

Because of ongoing rapid climate change, many ecosystems are becoming both warmer and more variable, and these changes are likely to alter the magnitude and variability of natural selection acting on wild populations. Critically, changes and fluctuations in selection can impact both population demography and evolutionary change. Therefore, predicting the impacts of climate change depends on understanding the magnitude and variation in selection on traits across different life stages and environments. Long-term experiments in wild settings are a great opportunity to determine the impact of environmental conditions on selection. Here we examined variability in the strength of selection on size traits of nestling black-legged kittiwakes (Rissa tridactyla) in a 25-year study including a food supplementation experiment on Middleton Island in the Gulf of Alaska. Using mixed effect models, we examined the annual variability of stage-specific and resource-specific selection gradients across 25 years. We found that (a) larger and heavier hatchlings were the most likely to survive during early ontogeny, (b) non-food supplemented younger nestlings in a brood experienced the strongest selection, and (c) warmer conditions increased the magnitude of selection on nestling mass and affected non-food supplemented and second-hatched nestlings the most. Our results suggested that variable resource dynamics likely caused some of the changes in selection from year to year and that warming conditions increased the strength of selection on subarctic seabird growth. However, our experimental manipulation revealed that local environmental heterogeneity could buffer the selection expected from broader climatic changes. Consequently, understanding the interactive effects of local conditions and general changes in climate seems likely to improve our ability to predict future selection gradients.

The opportunity for selection: A slippery concept in ecology and evolution

Natural selection can only occur if individuals differ in fitness. For this reason, the variance in relative fitness has been equated with the 'opportunity for selection' (I ), which has a long, albeit somewhat controversial, history. In this paper we discuss the use/misuse ofI and related metrics in evolutionary ecology. The opportunity is only realised if some fraction ofI is caused by trait variation. Thus,I > 0 does not imply that selection is occurring, as sometimes erroneously assumed, because all fitness variation could be independent of phenotype. The selection intensity on any given trait cannot exceedI , but this upper limit will never be reached because (a) stochastic factors always affect fitness, and (b) there might be multiple traits under selection. The expected magnitude of the stochastic component ofI is negatively correlated with mean fitness. Uncertainty in realisedI is also larger when mean fitness or population/sample size are low. Variation inI across time or space thus can be dominated (or solely driven) by variation in the strength of demographic stochasticity. We illustrate these points using simulations and empirical data from a population study on great tits Parus major. Our analysis shows that the scope for fecundity selection in the great tits is substantially higher when using annual number of recruits as the fitness measure, rather than fledglings or eggs, even after adjusting for the dependence ofI on mean fitness. This suggests nonrandom survival of juveniles across families between life stages. Indeed, previous work on this population has shown that offspring recruitment is often nonrandom with respect to clutch size and laying date of parents, for example. We conclude that one cannot make direct inferences about selection based on fitness data alone. However, examining variation in∆ I F (the opportunity for fecundity selection adjusted for mean fitness) across life stages, years or environments can offer clues as to when/where fecundity selection might be strongest, which can be useful for research planning and experimental design.

Parasitism shapes selection by drastically reducing host fitness and increasing host fitness variation

Determining the effects of parasites on host reproduction is key to understanding how parasites affect the underpinnings of selection on hosts. Although infection is expected to be costly, reducing mean fitness, infection could also increase variation in fitness costs among hosts, both of which determine the potential for selection on hosts. To test these ideas, we used a phylogenetically informed meta-analysis of 118 studies to examine how changes in the mean and variance in the outcome of reproduction differed between parasitized and non-parasitized hosts. We found that parasites had severe negative effects on mean fitness, with parasitized hosts suffering reductions in fecundity, viability and mating success. Parasite infection also increased variance in reproduction, particularly fecundity and offspring viability. Surprisingly, parasites had similar effects on viability when either the male or female was parasitized. These results not only provide the first synthetic, comparative, and quantitative summary of the strong deleterious effects of parasites on host reproductive fitness, but also reveal a consistent role for parasites in shaping the opportunity for selection.

Natural selection fluctuates at an extremely fine spatial scale inside a wild population of snapdragon plants

Spatial variation in natural selection is expected to shape phenotypic variation of wild populations and drive their evolution. Although evidence of phenotypic divergence across populations experiencing different selection regimes is abundant, investigations of intrapopulation variation in selection pressures remain rare. Fine-grained spatial environmental heterogeneity can be expected to influence selective forces within a wild population and thereby alter its fitness function by producing multiple fitness optima at a fine spatial scale. Here, we tested this hypothesis in a wild population of snapdragon plants living on an extremely small island in southern France (about 7500 m² ). We estimated the spline-based fitness function linking individuals' fitness and five morphological traits in interaction with three spatially variable ecological drivers. We found that selection acting on several traits varied both in magnitude and direction in response to environmental variables at the scale of a meter. Our findings illustrate how different phenotypes can be selected at different locations within a population in response to environmental variation. Investigating spatial variation in selection within a population, in association with ecological conditions, represents an opportunity to identify putative ecological drivers of selection in the wild.

Herbivore-Mediated Selection on Floral Display Covaries Nonlinearly With Plant-Antagonistic Interaction Intensity Among Primrose Populations

Quantifying the relations between plant-antagonistic interactions and natural selection among populations is important for predicting how spatial variation in ecological interactions drive adaptive differentiation. Here, we investigate the relations between the opportunity for selection, herbivore-mediated selection, and the intensity of plant-herbivore interaction among 11 populations of the insect-pollinated plant Primula florindae over 2 years. We experimentally quantified herbivore-mediated directional selection on three floral traits (two display and one phenological) within populations and found evidence for herbivore-mediated selection for a later flowering start date and a greater number of flowers per plant. The opportunity for selection and strength of herbivore-mediated selection on number of flowers varied nonlinearly with the intensity of herbivory among populations. These parameters increased and then decreased with increasing intensity of plant-herbivore interactions, defined as an increase in the ratio of herbivore-damaged flowers per individual. Our results provide novel insights into how plant-antagonistic interactions can shape spatial variation in selection on floral traits and contribute toward understanding the mechanistic basis of geographic variation in angiosperm flowers.

Genetic and plastic rewiring of food webs under climate change

Climate change is altering ecological and evolutionary processes across biological scales. These simultaneous effects of climate change pose a major challenge for predicting the future state of populations, communities and ecosystems. This challenge is further exacerbated by the current lack of integration of research focused on these different scales.

We propose that integrating the fields of quantitative genetics and food web ecology will reveal new insights on how climate change may reorganize biodiversity across levels of organization. This is because quantitative genetics links the genotypes of individuals to population‐level phenotypic variation due to genetic (G), environmental (E) and gene‐by‐environment (G × E) factors. Food web ecology, on the other hand, links population‐level phenotypes to the structure and dynamics of communities and ecosystems.

We synthesize data and theory across these fields and find evidence that genetic (G) and plastic (E and G × E) phenotypic variation within populations will change in magnitude under new climates in predictable ways. We then show how changes in these sources of phenotypic variation can rewire food webs by altering the number and strength of species interactions, with consequences for ecosystem resilience. We also find evidence suggesting there are predictable asymmetries in genetic and plastic trait variation across trophic levels, which set the pace for phenotypic change and food web responses to climate change. Advances in genomics now make it possible to partition G, E and G × E phenotypic variation in natural populations, allowing tests of the hypotheses we propose.

By synthesizing advances in quantitative genetics and food web ecology, we provide testable predictions for how the structure and dynamics of biodiversity will respond to climate change.

Phenotypic evolution in stochastic environments: The contribution of frequency- and density-dependent selection

Understanding how environmental variation affects phenotypic evolution requires models based on ecologically realistic assumptions that include variation in population size and specific mechanisms by which environmental fluctuations affect selection. Here we generalize quantitative genetic theory for environmentally induced stochastic selection to include general forms of frequency- and density-dependent selection. We show how the relevant fitness measure under stochastic selection relates to Fisher's fundamental theorem of natural selection, and present a general class of models in which density regulation acts through total use of resources rather than just population size. In this model, there is a constant adaptive topography for expected evolution, and the function maximized in the long run is the expected factor restricting population growth. This allows us to generalize several previous results and to explain why apparently " K -selected" species with slow life histories often have low carrying capacities. Our joint analysis of density- and frequency-dependent selection reveals more clearly the relationship between population dynamics and phenotypic evolution, enabling a broader range of eco-evolutionary analyses of some of the most interesting problems in evolution in the face of environmental variation.

Patterns of environmental variance across environments and traits in domestic cattle

The variance in phenotypic trait values is a product of environmental and genetic variation. The sensitivity of traits to environmental variation has a genetic component and is likely to be under selection. However, there are few studies investigating the evolution of this sensitivity, in part due to the challenges of estimating the environmental variance. The livestock literature provides a wealth of studies that accurately partition components of phenotypic variance, including the environmental variance, in well-defined environments. These studies involve breeds that have been under strong selection on mean phenotype in optimal environments for many generations, and therefore represent an opportunity to study the potential evolution of trait sensitivity to environmental conditions. Here, we use literature on domestic cattle to examine the evolution of micro-environmental variance (CVR-the coefficient of residual variance) by testing for differences in expression of CVR in animals from the same breed reared in different environments. Traits that have been under strong selection did not follow a null expectation of an increase in CVR in heterogenous environments (e.g., grazing), a pattern that may reflect evolution of increased uniformity in heterogeneous environments. When comparing CVR across environments of different levels of optimality, here measured by trait mean, we found a reduction in CVR in the more optimal environments for both life history and growth traits. Selection aimed at increasing trait means in livestock breeds typically occurs in the more optimal environments, and we therefore suspect that the decreased CVR is a consequence of evolution of the expression of micro-environmental variance in this environment. Our results highlight the heterogeneity in micro-environmental variance across environments and point to possible connections to the intensity of selection on trait means.

Phenotypic plasticity in response to climate change: the importance of cue variation

Phenotypic plasticity is a major mechanism of response to global change. However, current plastic responses will only remain adaptive under future conditions if informative environmental cues are still available. We briefly summarize current knowledge of the evolutionary origin and mechanistic underpinnings of environmental cues for phenotypic plasticity, before highlighting the potentially complex effects of global change on cue availability and reliability. We then illustrate some of these aspects with a case study, comparing plasticity of blue tit breeding phenology in two contrasted habitats: evergreen and deciduous forests. Using long-term datasets, we investigate the climatic factors linked to the breeding phenology of the birds and their main food source. Blue tits occupying different habitats differ extensively in the cues affecting laying date plasticity, as well as in the reliability of these cues as predictors of the putative driver of selective pressure, the date of caterpillar peak. The temporal trend for earlier laying date, detected only in the evergreen populations, is explained by increased temperature during their cue windows. Our results highlight the importance of integrating ecological mechanisms shaping variation in plasticity if we are to understand how global change will affect plasticity and its consequences for population biology. This article is part of the theme issue 'The role of plasticity in phenotypic adaptation to rapid environmental change'.

Biotic and anthropogenic forces rival climatic/abiotic factors in determining global plant population growth and fitness

Knowing which of multiple environmental factors (climate, other species, humans, etc.) most strongly affect wild plants and animals could focus our attention on the future environmental changes most likely to influence biodiversity. However, we find that abiotic, biotic, and human influences on plant populations are of similar strengths, for different kinds of plants and in multiple locations and environments. The effects of these factors on plant evolution are also likely to be similar. Thus, there is unlikely to be a shortcut to considering all of these factors when predicting the future ecological and evolutionary responses of species and of biodiversity to environmental changes.

Multiple, simultaneous environmental changes, in climatic/abiotic factors, interacting species, and direct human influences, are impacting natural populations and thus biodiversity, ecosystem services, and evolutionary trajectories. Determining whether the magnitudes of the population impacts of abiotic, biotic, and anthropogenic drivers differ, accounting for their direct effects and effects mediated through other drivers, would allow us to better predict population fates and design mitigation strategies. We compiled 644 paired values of the population growth rate (λ) from high and low levels of an identified driver from demographic studies of terrestrial plants. Among abiotic drivers, natural disturbance (not climate), and among biotic drivers, interactions with neighboring plants had the strongest effects on λ. However, when drivers were combined into the 3 main types, their average effects on λ did not differ. For the subset of studies that measured both the average and variability of the driver, λ was marginally more sensitive to 1 SD of change in abiotic drivers relative to biotic drivers, but sensitivity to biotic drivers was still substantial. Similar impact magnitudes for abiotic/biotic/anthropogenic drivers hold for plants of different growth forms, for different latitudinal zones, and for biomes characterized by harsher or milder abiotic conditions, suggesting that all 3 drivers have equivalent impacts across a variety of contexts. Thus, the best available information about the integrated effects of drivers on all demographic rates provides no justification for ignoring drivers of any of these 3 types when projecting ecological and evolutionary responses of populations and of biodiversity to environmental changes.

No evidence that warmer temperatures are associated with selection for smaller body sizes

Reductions in animal body size over recent decades are often interpreted as an adaptive evolutionary response to climate warming. However, for reductions in size to reflect adaptive evolution, directional selection on body size within populations must have become negative, or where already negative, to have become more so, as temperatures increased. To test this hypothesis, we performed traditional and phylogenetic meta-analyses of the association between annual estimates of directional selection on body size from wild populations and annual mean temperatures from 39 longitudinal studies. We found no evidence that warmer environments were associated with selection for smaller size. Instead, selection consistently favoured larger individuals, and was invariant to temperature. These patterns were similar in ectotherms and endotherms. An analysis using year rather than temperature revealed similar patterns, suggesting no evidence that selection has changed over time, and also indicating that the lack of association with annual temperature was not an artefact of choosing an erroneous time window for aggregating the temperature data. Although phenotypic trends in size will be driven by a combination of genetic and environmental factors, our results suggest little evidence for a necessary ingredient-negative directional selection-for declines in body size to be considered an adaptive evolutionary response to changing selection pressures.