Climate change shifts natural selection and the adaptive potential of the perennial forb Boechera stricta in the Rocky Mountains

The influence of elevation on genetic structure and variability in a wetland crucifer of the Rocky Mountains

PREMISE

In mountain ecosystems, environmental conditions (e.g., temperature, ultraviolet radiation) covary with elevation, potentially limiting gene flow over steep gradients. We hypothesized that, (1) due to stark elevational differences in environmental factors, populations from dissimilar elevations (e.g., montane versus alpine) are more strongly differentiated than populations from similar elevations; (2) patterns of migration reflect downslope dispersal more than upslope dispersal; and (3) alpine populations at the cold edge show evidence of expansion, while montane populations at the warm edge have declined.

METHODS

DNA polymorphisms in whole-genome sequences were studied from 6-10 genotypes each in populations of Cardamine cordifolia found at three montane sites (ranging from 2200 to 2800 m a.s.l.) and three alpine sites (ranging from 3000 to 3500 m a.s.l.). Statistical analyses assessed patterns of population structure, genetic diversity, migration, and historical demography since the Pleistocene.

RESULTS

Populations maintained very high levels of nucleotide diversity (π range: 0.062-0.071) and were weakly differentiated (pairwise FST = 0.027) on average. Migration among alpine populations was also inferred, with no directionality of migration across elevation bands. Demographic inference suggests that both montane and alpine populations have declined in size since the Pleistocene.

CONCLUSIONS

Environmental differences across elevation represent diffuse barriers to gene flow. Recent polyploidy and clonal reproduction likely explain excess heterozygosity and high nucleotide diversity within populations. The genetic similarity of populations across elevation suggests highly connected refugia during the Pleistocene; such results may indicate that montane and alpine populations will respond similarly to changing environmental conditions associated with climate change.

Natural selection on floral volatiles and other traits can change with snowmelt timing and summer precipitation

Climate change is disrupting floral traits that mediate mutualistic and antagonistic species interactions. Plastic responses of these traits to multiple shifting conditions may be adaptive, depending on natural selection in new environments. We manipulated snowmelt date over three seasons (3-11 d earlier) in factorial combination with growing-season precipitation (normal, halved, or doubled) to measure plastic responses of volatile emissions and other floral traits in Ipomopsis aggregata. We quantified how precipitation and early snowmelt affected selection on traits by seed predators and pollinators. Within years, floral emissions did not respond to precipitation treatments but shifted with snowmelt treatment depending on the year. Across 3 yr, emissions correlated with both precipitation and snowmelt date. These effects were driven by changes in soil moisture. Selection on several traits changed with earlier snowmelt or reduced precipitation, in some cases driven by predispersal seed predation. Floral trait plasticity was not generally adaptive. Floral volatile emissions shifted in the face of two effects of climate change, and the new environments modulated selection imposed by interacting species. The complexity of the responses underscores the need for more studies of how climate change will affect floral volatiles and other floral traits.

A Long-Lived Alpine Perennial Advances Flowering under Warmer Conditions but Not Enough to Maintain Reproductive Success

AbstractAssessing whether phenological shifts in response to climate change confer a fitness advantage requires investigating the relationships among phenology, fitness, and environmental drivers of selection. Despite widely documented advancements in phenology with warming climate, we lack empirical estimates of how selection on phenology varies in response to continuous climate drivers or how phenological shifts in response to warming conditions affect fitness. We leverage an unusual long-term dataset with repeated, individual measurements of phenology and reproduction in a long-lived alpine plant. We analyze phenotypic plasticity in flowering phenology in relation to two climate drivers, snowmelt timing and growing degree days (GDDs). Plants flower earlier with increased GDDs and earlier snowmelt, and directional selection also favors earlier flowering under these conditions. However, reproduction still declines with warming and early snowmelt, even when flowering is early. Furthermore, the steepness of this reproductive decline increases dramatically with warming conditions, resulting in very little fruit production regardless of flowering time once GDDs exceed approximately 225 degree days or snowmelt occurs before May 15. Even though advancing phenology confers a fitness advantage relative to stasis, these shifts are insufficient to maintain reproduction under warming, highlighting limits to the potential benefits of phenological plasticity under climate change.

Comparing the Predicted versus Realized Rate of Adaptation of Chamaecrista fasciculata to Climate Change

AbstractFisher's fundamental theorem of natural selection (FTNS) can be used in a quantitative genetics framework to predict the rate of adaptation in populations. Here, we estimated the capacity for a wild population of the annual legume Chamaecrista fasciculata to adapt to future environments and compared predicted and realized rates of adaptation. We planted pedigreed seeds from one population into three prairie reconstructions along an east-to-west decreasing precipitation gradient. The FTNS predicted adaptation at all sites, but we found a response to selection that was smaller at the home and westernmost sites and maladaptive at the middle site because of changes in the selective environment between generations. However, mean fitness of the progeny generation at the home and westernmost sites exceeded population replacement, which suggests that the environment was sufficiently favorable to promote population persistence. More studies employing the FTNS are needed to clarify the degree to which predictions of the rate of adaptation are realized and its utility in the conservation of populations at risk of extinction from climate change.

Chasing the fitness optimum: temporal variation in the genetic and environmental expression of life-history traits for a perennial plant

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

The ability of plants to track shifting fitness optima is crucial within the context of global change, where increasing environmental extremes may have dramatic consequences for life history, fitness, and ultimately population persistence. However, tracking changing conditions relies on the relationship between genetic and environmental variance, where selection may favour plasticity, the evolution of genetic differences, or both depending on the spatial and temporal scale of environmental heterogeneity.

METHODS

Over three years, we compared the genetic and environmental components of phenological and life-history variation in a common environment for the spring perennial Geum triflorum. Populations were sourced from alvar habitats that exhibit extreme but predictable annual flood-desiccation cycles and prairie habitats that exhibit similar but less predictable variation in water availability.

KEY RESULTS

Heritability was generally higher for early life-history (emergence probability) relative to later life-history traits (total seed mass), indicating that traits associated with establishment are under stronger genetic control relative to later life-history fitness expressions, where plasticity may play a larger role. This pattern was particularly notable in seeds sourced from environmentally extreme but predictable alvar habitats relative to less predictable prairie environments. Fitness landscapes based on seed source origin, largely characterized by varying water availability and flower production, described selection as the degree of maladaptation of seed source environment relative to the prairie common garden environment. Plants from alvar populations were consistently closer to the fitness optimum across all years. Annually, the breadth of the fitness optimum expanded primarily along a moisture gradient, with inclusion of more populations onto the expanding optimum.

CONCLUSIONS

These results highlight the importance of temporally and spatially varying selection in life-history evolution, indicating plasticity may become a primary mechanism needed to track fitness for later life-history events within perennial systems.

A Hyb-Seq phylogeny of Boechera and related genera using a combination of Angiosperms353 and Brassicaceae-specific bait sets

PREMISE

Although Boechera (Boechereae, Brassicaceae) has become a plant model system for both ecological genomics and evolutionary biology, all previous phylogenetic studies have had limited success in resolving species relationships within the genus. The recent effective application of sequence data from target enrichment approaches to resolve the evolutionary relationships of several other challenging plant groups prompted us to investigate their usefulness in Boechera and Boechereae.

METHODS

To resolve the phylogeny of Boechera and closely related genera, we utilized the Hybpiper pipeline to analyze two combined bait sets: Angiosperms353, with broad applicability across flowering plants; and a Brassicaceae-specific bait set designed for use in the mustard family. Relationships for 101 samples representing 81 currently recognized species were inferred from a total of 1114 low-copy nuclear genes using both supermatrix and species coalescence methods.

RESULTS

Our analyses resulted in a well-resolved and highly supported phylogeny of the tribe Boechereae. Boechereae is divided into two major clades, one comprising all western North American species of Boechera, the other encompassing the eight other genera of the tribe. Our understanding of relationships within Boechera is enhanced by the recognition of three core clades that are further subdivided into robust regional species complexes.

CONCLUSIONS

This study presents the first broadly sampled, well-resolved phylogeny for most known sexual diploid Boechera. This effort provides the foundation for a new phylogenetically informed taxonomy of Boechera that is crucial for its continued use as a model system.

Population divergence in heat and drought responses of a coastal plant: from metabolic phenotypes to plant morphology and growth

Studying intraspecific variation in multistress responses is central for predicting and managing the population dynamics of wild plant species under rapid global change. Yet, it remains a challenging goal in this field to integrate knowledge on the complex biochemical underpinnings for the targeted 'non-model' species. Here, we studied divergence in combined drought and heat responses among Northern and Southern European populations of the dune plant Cakile maritima, by combining comprehensive plant phenotyping with metabolic profiling via FT-ICR-MS and UPLC-TQ-MS/MS. We observed pronounced constitutive divergence in growth phenology, leaf functional traits, and defence chemistry (glucosinolates and alkaloids) among population origins. Most importantly, the magnitude of growth reduction under drought was partly weaker in southern plants and associated with divergence in plastic growth responses (leaf abscission) and the modulation of primary and specialized metabolites with known central functions not only in plant abiotic but also in biotic stress responses. Our study indicates that divergent selection has shaped the constitutive and drought-/heat-induced expression of numerous morphological and biochemical functional traits to mediate higher abiotic stress resistance in southern Cakile populations, and highlights that metabolomics can be a powerful tool to explore the underlying mechanisms of local adaptation in 'non-model' species.

Demographic responses of hybridizing cinquefoils to changing climate in the Colorado Rocky Mountains

Hybridization between taxa generates new pools of genetic variation that can lead to different environmental responses and demographic trajectories over time than seen in parental lineages. The potential for hybrids to have novel environmental tolerances may be increasingly important in mountainous regions, which are rapidly warming and drying due to climate change. Demographic analysis makes it possible to quantify within- and among-species responses to variation in climate and to predict population growth rates as those conditions change. We estimated vital rates and population growth in 13 natural populations of two cinquefoil taxa (Potentilla hippiana and P. pulcherrima) and their hybrid across elevation gradients in the Southern Rockies. Using three consecutive years of environmental and demographic data, we compared the demographic responses of hybrid and parental taxa to environmental variation across space and time. All three taxa had lower predicted population growth rates under warm, dry conditions. However, the magnitude of these responses varied among taxa and populations. Hybrids had consistently lower predicted population growth rates than P. hippiana. In contrast, hybrid performance relative to P. pulcherrima varied with population and climate, with the hybrid maintaining relatively stable growth rates while populations of P. pulcherrima shrank under warm, dry conditions. Our findings demonstrate that hybrids in this system are neither intrinsically unfit nor universally more vigorous than parents, suggesting that the demographic consequences of hybridization are context-dependent. Our results also imply that shifts to warmer and drier conditions could have particularly negative repercussions for P. pulcherrima, which is currently the most abundant taxon in the study area, possibly as a legacy of more favorable historical climates. More broadly, the distributions of these long-lived taxa are lagging behind their demographic trajectories, such that the currently less common P. hippiana could become the most abundant of the Potentilla taxa as this region continues to warm and dry.

Local adaptation: Causal agents of selection and adaptive trait divergence

Divergent selection across the landscape can favor the evolution of local adaptation in populations experiencing contrasting conditions. Local adaptation is widely observed in a diversity of taxa, yet we have a surprisingly limited understanding of the mechanisms that give rise to it. For instance, few have experimentally confirmed the biotic and abiotic variables that promote local adaptation, and fewer yet have identified the phenotypic targets of selection that mediate local adaptation. Here, we highlight critical gaps in our understanding of the process of local adaptation and discuss insights emerging from in-depth investigations of the agents of selection that drive local adaptation, the phenotypes they target, and the genetic basis of these phenotypes. We review historical and contemporary methods for assessing local adaptation, explore whether local adaptation manifests differently across life history, and evaluate constraints on local adaptation.

Water and nutrient availability exert selection on reproductive phenology

PREMISE

Global change has changed resource availability to plants, which could shift the adaptive landscape. We hypothesize that novel water and nutrient availability combinations alter patterns of natural selection on reproductive phenology in Boechera stricta (Brassicaceae) and influence the evolution of local adaptation.

METHODS

We conducted a multifactorial greenhouse study using 35 accessions of B. stricta sourced from a broad elevational gradient in the Rocky Mountains. We exposed full siblings to three soil water and two nutrient availability treatment levels, reflecting current and projected future conditions. In addition, we quantified fitness (seed count) and four phenological traits: the timing of first flowering, the duration of flowering, and height and leaf number at flowering.

RESULTS

Selection favored early flowering and longer duration of flowering, and the genetic correlation between these traits accorded with the direction of selection. In most treatments, we found selection for increased height, but selection on leaf number depended on water availability, with selection favoring more leaves in well-watered conditions and fewer leaves under severe drought. Low-elevation genotypes had the greatest fitness under drought stress, consistent with local adaptation.

CONCLUSIONS

We found evidence of strong selection on these heritable traits. Furthermore, the direction and strength of selection on size at flowering depended on the variable measured (height vs. leaf number). Finally, selection often favored both early flowering and a longer duration of flowering. Selection on these two components of phenology can be difficult to disentangle due to tight genetic correlations.

The Boechera model system for evolutionary ecology

Model systems in biology expand the research capacity of individuals and the community. Closely related to Arabidopsis, the genus Boechera has emerged as an important ecological model owing to the ability to integrate across molecular, functional, and eco-evolutionary approaches. Boechera species are broadly distributed in relatively undisturbed habitats predominantly in western North America and provide one of the few experimental systems for identification of ecologically important genes through genome-wide association studies and investigations of selection with plants in their native habitats. The ecologically, evolutionarily, and agriculturally important trait of apomixis (asexual reproduction via seeds) is common in the genus, and field experiments suggest that abiotic and biotic environments shape the evolution of sex. To date, population genetic studies have focused on the widespread species B. stricta, detailing population divergence and demographic history. Molecular and ecological studies show that balancing selection maintains genetic variation in ~10% of the genome, and ecological trade-offs contribute to complex trait variation for herbivore resistance, flowering phenology, and drought tolerance. Microbiome analyses have shown that host genotypes influence leaf and root microbiome composition, and the soil microbiome influences flowering phenology and natural selection. Furthermore, Boechera offers numerous opportunities for investigating biological responses to global change. In B. stricta, climate change has induced a shift of >2 weeks in the timing of first flowering since the 1970s, altered patterns of natural selection, generated maladaptation in previously locally-adapted populations, and disrupted life history trade-offs. Here we review resources and results for this eco-evolutionary model system and discuss future research directions.

Mutualist- and antagonist-mediated selection contribute to trait diversification of flowers

Flowers are generally short-lived, and they all face a multidimensional challenge because they have to attract mutualists, compel them to vector pollen with minimal investment in rewards, and repel floral enemies during this short time window. Their displays are under complex selection, either consistent or conflicting, to maximize reproductive fitness under heterogeneous environments. The phenological or morphological mismatches between flowers and visitors will influence interspecific competition, resource access, mating success and, ultimately, population and community dynamics. To better understand the effects of the plant visitors on floral traits, it is necessary to determine the functional significance of specific floral traits for the visitors; how plants respond to both mutualists and antagonists through adaptive changes; and to evaluate the net fitness effects of biological mutualisms and antagonism on plants. In this review, we bring together insights from fields as diverse as floral biology, insect behavioral responses, and evolutionary biology to explain the processes and patterns of floral diversity evolution. Then, we discuss the ecological significance of plant responses to mutualists and antagonists from a community perspective, and propose a set of research questions that can guide the research field to integrate studies of plant defense and reproduction.

Eco-evolutionary causes and consequences of rarity in plants: a meta-analysis

Species differ dramatically in their prevalence in the natural world, with many species characterized as rare due to restricted geographic distribution, low local abundance and/or habitat specialization. We investigated the ecoevolutionary causes and consequences of rarity with phylogenetically controlled metaanalyses of population genetic diversity, fitness and functional traits in rare and common congeneric plant species. Our syntheses included 252 rare species and 267 common congeners reported in 153 peer-reviewed articles published from 1978 to 2020 and one manuscript in press. Rare species have reduced population genetic diversity, depressed fitness and smaller reproductive structures than common congeners. Rare species also could suffer from inbreeding depression and reduced fertilization efficiency. By limiting their capacity to adapt and migrate, these characteristics could influence contemporary patterns of rarity and increase the susceptibility of rare species to rapid environmental change. We recommend that future studies present more nuanced data on the extent of rarity in focal species, expose rare and common species to ecologically relevant treatments, including reciprocal transplants, and conduct quantitative genetic and population genomic analyses across a greater array of systems. This research could elucidate the processes that contribute to rarity and generate robust predictions of extinction risks under global change.

Phenotypic plasticity and selection on leaf traits in response to snowmelt timing and summer precipitation

Vegetative traits of plants can respond directly to changes in the environment, such as those occurring under climate change. That phenotypic plasticity could be adaptive, maladaptive, or neutral. We manipulated the timing of spring snowmelt and amount of summer precipitation in factorial combination and examined responses of specific leaf area (SLA), trichome density, leaf water content (LWC), photosynthetic rate, stomatal conductance and intrinsic water-use efficiency (iWUE) in the subalpine herb Ipomopsis aggregata. The experiment was repeated in three years differing in natural timing of snowmelt. To examine natural selection, we used survival, relative growth rate, and flowering as fitness indices. A 50% reduction in summer precipitation reduced stomatal conductance and increased iWUE, and doubled precipitation increased LWC. Combining natural and experimental variation, earlier snowmelt reduced soil moisture, photosynthetic rate and stomatal conductance, and increased trichome density and iWUE. Precipitation reduction reversed the mortality selection favoring high stomatal conductance under normal and doubled precipitation, and higher LWC improved growth. Earlier snowmelt is a strong signal of climate change and can change expression of leaf morphology and gas exchange traits, just as reduced precipitation can. Stomatal conductance and SLA showed adaptive plasticity under some conditions.

Adaptation Strategies and Approaches for Managing Fire in a Changing Climate

As the effects of climate change accumulate and intensify, resource managers juggle existing goals and new mandates to operationalize adaptation. Fire managers contend with the direct effects of climate change on resources in addition to climate-induced disruptions to fire regimes and subsequent ecosystem effects. In systems stressed by warming and drying, increased fire activity amplifies the pace of change and scale of severe disturbance events, heightening the urgency for management action. Fire managers are asked to integrate information on climate impacts with their professional expertise to determine how to achieve management objectives in a changing climate with altered fire regimes. This is a difficult task, and managers need support as they incorporate climate adaptation into planning and operations. We present a list of adaptation strategies and approaches specific to fire and climate based on co-produced knowledge from a science–management partnership and pilot-tested in a two-day workshop with natural resource managers and regional stakeholders. This “menu” is a flexible and useful tool for fire managers who need to connect the dots between fire ecology, climate science, adaptation intent, and management implementation. It was created and tested as part of an adaptation framework used widely across the United States and should be applicable and useful in many fire-prone forest ecosystems.

Earlier snow melt and reduced summer precipitation alter floral traits important to pollination

Climate change can cause changes in expression of organismal traits that influence fitness. In flowering plants, floral traits can respond to drought, and that phenotypic plasticity has the potential to affect pollination and plant reproductive success. Global climate change is leading to earlier snow melt in snow-dominated ecosystems as well as affecting precipitation during the growing season, but the effects of snow melt timing on floral morphology and rewards remain unknown. We conducted crossed manipulations of spring snow melt timing (early vs. control) and summer monsoon precipitation (addition, control, and reduction) that mimicked recent natural variation, and examined plastic responses in floral traits of Ipomopsis aggregata over 3 years in the Rocky Mountains. We tested whether increased summer precipitation compensated for earlier snow melt, and if plasticity was associated with changes in soil moisture and/or leaf gas exchange. Lower summer precipitation decreased corolla length, style length, corolla width, sepal width, and nectar production, and increased nectar concentration. Earlier snow melt (taking into account natural and experimental variation) had the same effects on those traits and decreased inflorescence height. The effect of reduced summer precipitation was stronger in earlier snow melt years for corolla length and sepal width. Trait reductions were explained by drier soil during the flowering period, but this effect was only partially explained by how drier soils affected plant water stress, as measured by leaf gas exchange. We predicted the effects of plastic trait changes on pollinator visitation rates, pollination success, and seed production using prior studies on I. aggregata. The largest predicted effect of drier soil on relative fitness components via plasticity was a decrease in male fitness caused by reduced pollinator rewards (nectar production). Early snow melt and reduced precipitation are strong drivers of phenotypic plasticity, and both should be considered when predicting effects of climate change on plant traits in snow-dominated ecosystems.

Does Phenological Plasticity Help or Hinder Range Shifts Under Climate Change?

Climate warming is predicted to shift species’ ranges as previously uninhabitable environments just beyond the leading range edges become suitable habitat and trailing range edges become increasingly unsuitable. Understanding which aspects of the environment and species traits mediate these range shifts is critical for understanding species’ possible redistributions under global change, yet we have a limited understanding of the ecological and evolutionary responses underlying population spread or extinction at species’ range edges. Within plant populations, shifts in flowering phenology have been one of the strongest and most consistent responses to climate change, and are likely to play an important role in mediating population dynamics within and beyond species’ ranges. However, the role of phenological shifts, and particularly phenological plasticity, in species’ range shifts remains relatively unstudied. Here, we synthesize literature on phenology, plasticity, and adaptation to suggest ways in which phenological responses to climate may vary across species’ ranges and review the empirical evidence for and against these hypotheses. We then outline how phenological plasticity could facilitate or hinder persistence and potential consequences of phenological plasticity in range expansions, including phenological cues, shifts in correlated traits, altered species interactions, and effects on gene flow. Finally, we suggest future avenues for research, such as characterizing reaction norms for phenology across a species’ range and in beyond-the-range transplant experiments. Given the prevalence and magnitude of phenological shifts, future work should carefully dissect its costs and benefits for population persistence, and incorporate phenological plasticity into models predicting species’ persistence and geographic range shifts under climate change.

Costs of reproduction under experimental climate change across elevations in the perennial forb Boechera stricta

Investment in current reproduction can reduce future fitness by depleting resources needed for maintenance, particularly under environmental stress. These trade-offs influence life-history evolution. We tested whether climate change alters the future-fitness costs of current reproduction in a large-scale field experiment of Boechera stricta (Brassicaceae). Over 6 years, we simulated climate change along an elevational gradient in the Rocky Mountains through snow removal, which accelerates snowmelt and reduces soil water availability. Costs of reproduction were greatest in arid, lower elevations, where high initial reproductive effort depressed future fitness. At mid-elevations, initial reproduction augmented subsequent fitness in benign conditions, but pronounced costs emerged under snow removal. At high elevation, snow removal dampened costs of reproduction by prolonging the growing season. In most scenarios, failed reproduction in response to resource limitation depressed lifetime fecundity. Indeed, fruit abortion only benefited high-fitness individuals under benign conditions. We propose that climate change could shift life-history trade-offs in an environment-dependent fashion, possibly favouring early reproduction and short lifespans in stressful conditions.

Review: Plant eco-evolutionary responses to climate change: Emerging directions

Contemporary climate change is exposing plant populations to novel combinations of temperatures, drought stress, [CO₂] and other abiotic and biotic conditions. These changes are rapidly disrupting the evolutionary dynamics of plants. Despite the multifactorial nature of climate change, most studies typically manipulate only one climatic factor. In this opinion piece, we explore how climate change factors interact with each other and with biotic pressures to alter evolutionary processes. We evaluate the ramifications of climate change across life history stages,and examine how mating system variation influences population persistence under rapid environmental change. Furthermore, we discuss how spatial and temporal mismatches between plants and their mutualists and antagonists could affect adaptive responses to climate change. For example, plant-virus interactions vary from highly pathogenic to mildly facilitative, and are partly mediated by temperature, moisture availability and [CO₂]. Will host plants exposed to novel, stressful abiotic conditions be more susceptible to viral pathogens? Finally, we propose novel experimental approaches that could illuminate how plants will cope with unprecedented global change, such as resurrection studies combined with experimental evolution, genomics or epigenetics.

Climate change alters plant-herbivore interactions

Plant-herbivore interactions have evolved in response to coevolutionary dynamics, along with selection driven by abiotic conditions. We examine how abiotic factors influence trait expression in both plants and herbivores to evaluate how climate change will alter this long-standing interaction. The paleontological record documents increased herbivory during periods of global warming in the deep past. In phylogenetically corrected meta-analyses, we find that elevated temperatures, CO₂ concentrations, drought stress and nutrient conditions directly and indirectly induce greater food consumption by herbivores. Additionally, elevated CO₂ delays herbivore development, but increased temperatures accelerate development. For annual plants, higher temperatures, CO₂ and drought stress increase foliar herbivory. Our meta-analysis also suggests that greater temperatures and drought may heighten florivory in perennials. Human actions are causing concurrent shifts in CO₂ , temperature, precipitation regimes and nitrogen deposition, yet few studies evaluate interactions among these changing conditions. We call for additional multifactorial studies that simultaneously manipulate multiple climatic factors, which will enable us to generate more robust predictions of how climate change could disrupt plant-herbivore interactions. Finally, we consider how shifts in insect and plant phenology and distribution patterns could lead to ecological mismatches, and how these changes may drive future adaptation and coevolution between interacting species.

Plant adaptation to climate change - Where are we?

Climate change poses critical challenges for population persistence in natural communities, agriculture and environmental sustainability, and food security. In this review, we discuss recent progress in climatic adaptation in plants. We evaluate whether climate change exerts novel selection and disrupts local adaptation, whether gene flow can facilitate adaptive responses to climate change, and if adaptive phenotypic plasticity could sustain populations in the short term. Furthermore, we discuss how climate change influences species interactions. Through a more in-depth understanding of these eco-evolutionary dynamics, we will increase our capacity to predict the adaptive potential of plants under climate change. In addition, we review studies that dissect the genetic basis of plant adaptation to climate change. Finally, we highlight key research gaps, ranging from validating gene function, to elucidating molecular mechanisms, expanding research systems from model species to other natural species, testing the fitness consequences of alleles in natural environments, and designing multifactorial studies that more closely reflect the complex and interactive effects of multiple climate change factors. By leveraging interdisciplinary tools (e.g., cutting-edge omics toolkits, novel ecological strategies, newly-developed genome editing technology), researchers can more accurately predict the probability that species can persist through this rapid and intense period of environmental change, as well as cultivate crops to withstand climate change, and conserve biodiversity in natural systems.

Small spaces, big impacts: contributions of micro-environmental variation to population persistence under climate change

Individuals within natural populations can experience very different abiotic and biotic conditions across small spatial scales owing to microtopography and other micro-environmental gradients. Ecological and evolutionary studies often ignore the effects of micro-environment on plant population and community dynamics. Here, we explore the extent to which fine-grained variation in abiotic and biotic conditions contributes to within-population variation in trait expression and genetic diversity in natural plant populations. Furthermore, we consider whether benign microhabitats could buffer local populations of some plant species from abiotic stresses imposed by rapid anthropogenic climate change. If microrefugia sustain local populations and communities in the short term, other eco-evolutionary processes, such as gene flow and adaptation, could enhance population stability in the longer term. We caution, however, that local populations may still decline in size as they contract into rare microhabitats and microrefugia. We encourage future research that explicitly examines the role of the micro-environment in maintaining genetic variation within local populations, favouring the evolution of phenotypic plasticity at local scales and enhancing population persistence under global change.

Resource availability alters fitness trade-offs: implications for evolution in stressful environments

PREMISE

Industrialization and human activities have elevated temperatures and caused novel precipitation patterns, altering soil moisture and nutrient availability. Predicting evolutionary responses to climate change requires information on the agents of selection that drive local adaptation and influence resource acquisition and allocation. Here, we examined the contribution of nutrient and drought stress to local adaptation, and we tested whether trade-offs across fitness components constrain or facilitate adaptation under resource stress.

METHODS

We exposed 35 families of Boechera stricta (Brassicaceae) to three levels of water and two levels of nutrient supply in a factorial design in the greenhouse. We sourced maternal families from a broad elevational gradient (2499-3530 m a.s.l.), representing disparate soil moisture and nutrient availability.

RESULTS

Concordant with local adaptation, maternal families from arid, low-elevation populations had enhanced fecundity under severe drought over those from more mesic, high-elevation sites. Furthermore, fitness trade-offs between growth and reproductive success depended on the environmental context. Under high, but not low, nutrient levels, we found a negative phenotypic relationship between the probability of reproduction and growth rate. Similarly, a negative phenotypic association only emerged between fecundity and growth under severe drought stress, not the benign water treatment levels, indicating that stressful resource environments alter the direction of trait correlations. Genetic covariances were broadly concordant with these phenotypic patterns.

CONCLUSIONS

Despite high heritabilities in all fitness components across treatments, trade-offs between growth and reproduction could constrain adaptation to increasing drought stress and novel nutrient levels.