Predicting current and future global distributions of whale sharks

Lessons from a Rubik's Cube to solve the biodiversity crisis

Global biodiversity is facing unprecedented pressures, calling into question the effectiveness of existing governance systems aimed at halting extinctions. Renewed hope arose with the recent Conference of the Parties (COP) to the Convention on Biological Diversity (COP15 December 2022) and the Convention on International Trade in Endangered Species (COP19 November 2022). Yet, barriers remain that hamper biodiversity conservation. Identifying and overcoming these barriers is crucial for success. We considered previous lessons learned to show that current barriers to conservation are centered on a multidimensional array of mismatches among legal (law), ecological (science), and sociocultural (human) dimensions across the short, medium, and long term. Focusing on highly migratory marine megafauna (whales, sharks, and turtles), we used the Rubik's cube as a metaphor to conceptualize the multidimensional mismatches and devised a pathway for solutions that is highly dependent on strict alignment across all dimensions. We recommend the continuous cycling across all dimension interfaces to align the use (and update) of regulations and processes in law, improve data and experimentation methods in science, and develop education and engagement actions in the human dimension. This timely alignment across all dimensions is key to achieving biodiversity targets and avoiding further extinctions.

Global risk assessment of sharks to climate change

In what has been referred to as a 'perfect storm', it is now clear that we will be concurrently facing both a biodiversity and climate crisis over the incoming decades. In this context, we propose a broadly applicable framework to evaluate the climate-associated risk for marine life at the species-level, based on the ecosystem-level assessment developed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). We apply this framework to extant marine shark species - given their major ecological and socioeconomic importance, alongside their precarious conservation status -at the global scale. Through the integration of expert-assessed information on each risk dimension, we consider the ecosystem dependencies of the targeted species, alongside with their vulnerability to human pressures. More specifically, we estimate the threat (exposure * hazard) level imposed by different climate change scenarios [Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) 1, SSP2, SSP3 and SSP5] across meaningful timeframes (2021-2040, 2041-2060 and 2081-2100) and contrast the normalized threat, vulnerability, and risk scores of each species across regions and attributes (order, habitat use, climate preference, lifestyle, trophic position, reproductive mode, and extinction risk category). Our analysis showcases how all shark species should be affected by climate change regardless of the emission scenario. With effects widely expected over the short-term, discrepancies between emission scenarios escalate considerably over time, with associated changes in the level and type of ecological implications. Moreover, with distinct lineages and functional attributes likely to be differently affected and with distinct consequences expected across scenarios, this analysis highlights how climate change may exacerbate the risk of functional and phylogenetic loss documented for this key group of marine predators.

Effects of climate warming on energetics and habitat of the world's largest marine ectotherm

Responses of organisms to climate warming are variable and complex. Effects on species distributions are already evident and mean global surface ocean temperatures are likely to warm by up to 4.1 °C by 2100, substantially impacting the physiology and distributions of ectotherms. The largest marine ectotherm, the whale shark Rhincodon typus, broadly prefers sea surface temperatures (SST) ranging from 23 to 30 °C. Whole-species distribution models have projected a poleward range shift under future scenarios of climate change, but these models do not consider intraspecific variation or phenotypic plasticity in thermal limits when modelling species responses, and the impact of climate warming on the energetic requirements of whale sharks is unknown. Using a dataset of 111 whale shark movement tracks from aggregation sites in five countries across the Indian Ocean and the latest Earth-system modelling produced from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, we examined how SST and total zooplankton biomass, their main food source, may change in the future, and what this means for the energetic balance and extent of suitable habitat for whale sharks. Earth System Models, under three Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs; SSP1-2.6, SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5), project that by 2100 mean SST in four regions where whale shark aggregations are found will increase by up to 4.9 °C relative to the present, while zooplankton biomass will decrease. This reduction in zooplankton is projected to be accompanied by an increase in the energetic requirements of whale sharks because warmer water temperatures will increase their metabolic rate. We found marked differences in projected changes in the extent of suitable habitat when comparing a whole-species distribution model to one including regional variation. This suggests that the conventional approach of combining data from different regions within a species' distribution could underestimate the amount of local adaptation in populations, although parameterising local models could also suffer from having insufficient data and lead to model mis-specification or highly uncertain estimates. Our study highlights the need for further research into whale shark thermal tolerances and energetics, the complexities involved in projecting species responses to climate change, and the potential importance of considering intraspecific variation when building species distribution models.

Climate-driven global redistribution of an ocean giant predicts increased threat from shipping

Climate change is shifting animal distributions. However, the extent to which future global habitats of threatened marine megafauna will overlap existing human threats remains unresolved. Here we use global climate models and habitat suitability estimated from long-term satellite-tracking data of the world's largest fish, the whale shark, to show that redistributions of present-day habitats are projected to increase the species' co-occurrence with global shipping. Our model projects core habitat area losses of >50% within some national waters by 2100, with geographic shifts of over 1,000 km (∼12 km yr-1). Greater habitat suitability is predicted in current range-edge areas, increasing the co-occurrence of sharks with large ships. This future increase was ∼15,000 times greater under high emissions compared with a sustainable development scenario. Results demonstrate that climate-induced global species redistributions that increase exposure to direct sources of mortality are possible, emphasizing the need for quantitative climate-threat predictions in conservation assessments of endangered marine megafauna.

The vulnerability of sharks, skates, and rays to ocean deoxygenation: Physiological mechanisms, behavioral responses, and ecological impacts

Levels of dissolved oxygen in open ocean and coastal waters are decreasing (ocean deoxygenation), with poorly understood effects on marine megafauna. All of the more than 1000 species of elasmobranchs (sharks, skates, and rays) are obligate water breathers, with a variety of life-history strategies and oxygen requirements. This review demonstrates that although many elasmobranchs typically avoid hypoxic water, they also appear capable of withstanding mild to moderate hypoxia with changes in activity, ventilatory responses, alterations to circulatory and hematological parameters, and morphological alterations to gill structures. However, such strategies may be insufficient to withstand severe, progressive, or prolonged hypoxia or anoxia where anaerobic metabolic pathways may be used for limited periods. As water temperatures increase with climate warming, ectothermic elasmobranchs will exhibit elevated metabolic rates and are likely to be less able to tolerate the effects of even mild hypoxia associated with deoxygenation. As a result, sustained hypoxic conditions in warmer coastal or surface-pelagic waters are likely to lead to shifts in elasmobranch distributions. Mass mortalities of elasmobranchs linked directly to deoxygenation have only rarely been observed but are likely underreported. One key concern is how reductions in habitat volume as a result of expanding hypoxia resulting from deoxygenation will influence interactions between elasmobranchs and industrial fisheries. Catch per unit of effort of threatened pelagic sharks by longline fisheries, for instance, has been shown to be higher above oxygen minimum zones compared to adjacent, normoxic regions, and attributed to vertical habitat compression of sharks overlapping with increased fishing effort. How a compound stressor such as marine heatwaves alters vulnerability to deoxygenation remains an open question. With over a third of elasmobranch species listed as endangered, a priority for conservation and management now lies in understanding and mitigating ocean deoxygenation effects in addition to population declines already occurring from overfishing.

Geographic range size, water temperature, and extrinsic threats predict the extinction risk in global cetaceans

Despite the fact that cetaceans provide significant ecological contributions to the health and stability of aquatic ecosystems, many are highly endangered with nearly one-third of species assessed as threatened with extinction. Nevertheless, to date, few studies have explicitly examined the patterns and processes of extinction risk and threats for this taxon, and even less between the two subclades (Mysticeti and Odontoceti). To fill this gap, we compiled a dataset of six intrinsic traits (active region, geographic range size, body weight, diving depth, school size, and reproductive cycle), six environmental factors relating to sea surface temperature and chlorophyll concentration, and two human-related threat indices that are commonly recognized for cetaceans. We then employed phylogenetic generalized least squares models and model selection to identify the key predictors of extinction risk in all cetaceans, as well as in the two subclades. We found that geographic range size, sea surface temperature, and human threat index were the most important predictors of extinction risk in all cetaceans and in odontocetes. Interestingly, maximum body weight was positively associated with the extinction risk in mysticetes, but negatively related to that for odontocetes. By linking seven major threat types to extinction risk, we further revealed that fisheries bycatch was the most common threat, yet the impacts of certain threats could be overestimated when considering all species rather than just threatened ones. Overall, we suggest that conservation efforts should focus on small-ranged cetaceans and species living in warmer waters or under strong anthropogenic pressures. Moreover, further studies should consider the threatened status of species when superimposing risk maps and quantifying risk severity. Finally, we emphasize that mysticetes and odontocetes should be conserved with different strategies, because their extinction risk patterns and major threat types are considerably different. For instance, large-bodied mysticetes and small-ranged odontocetes require special conservation priority.

Global collision-risk hotspots of marine traffic and the world's largest fish, the whale shark

Marine traffic is increasing globally yet collisions with endangered megafauna such as whales, sea turtles, and planktivorous sharks go largely undetected or unreported. Collisions leading to mortality can have population-level consequences for endangered species. Hence, identifying simultaneous space use of megafauna and shipping throughout ranges may reveal as-yet-unknown spatial targets requiring conservation. However, global studies tracking megafauna and shipping occurrences are lacking. Here we combine satellite-tracked movements of the whale shark, Rhincodon typus, and vessel activity to show that 92% of sharks’ horizontal space use and nearly 50% of vertical space use overlap with persistent large vessel (>300 gross tons) traffic. Collision-risk estimates correlated with reported whale shark mortality from ship strikes, indicating higher mortality in areas with greatest overlap. Hotspots of potential collision risk were evident in all major oceans, predominantly from overlap with cargo and tanker vessels, and were concentrated in gulf regions, where dense traffic co-occurred with seasonal shark movements. Nearly a third of whale shark hotspots overlapped with the highest collision-risk areas, with the last known locations of tracked sharks coinciding with busier shipping routes more often than expected. Depth-recording tags provided evidence for sinking, likely dead, whale sharks, suggesting substantial “cryptic” lethal ship strikes are possible, which could explain why whale shark population declines continue despite international protection and low fishing-induced mortality. Mitigation measures to reduce ship-strike risk should be considered to conserve this species and other ocean giants that are likely experiencing similar impacts from growing global vessel traffic.

Wound-healing capabilities of whale sharks (Rhincodon typus) and implications for conservation management

Wound healing is important for marine taxa such as elasmobranchs, which can incur a range of natural and anthropogenic wounds throughout their life history. There is evidence that this group shows a high capacity for external wound healing. However, anthropogenic wounds may become more frequent due to increasing commercial and recreational marine activities. Whale sharks are particularly at risk of attaining injuries given their use of surface waters and wildlife tourism interest. There is limited understanding as to how whale sharks recover from injuries, and often insights are confined to singular opportunistic observations. The present study makes use of a unique and valuable photographic data source from two whale shark aggregation sites in the Indian Ocean. Successional injury-healing progression cases were reviewed to investigate the characteristics of injuries and quantify a coarse healing timeframe. Wounds were measured over time using an image standardization method. This work shows that by Day 25 major injury surface area decreased by an average of 56% and the most rapid healing case showed a surface area reduction of 50% in 4 days. All wounds reached a point of 90% surface area closure by Day 35. There were differences in healing rate based on wound type, with lacerations and abrasions taking 50 and 22 days to reach 90% healing, respectively. This study provides baseline information for wound healing in whale sharks and the methods proposed could act as a foundation for future research. Use of a detailed classification system, as presented here, may also assist in ocean scale injury comparisons between research groups and aid reliable descriptive data. Such findings can contribute to discussions regarding appropriate management in aggregation areas with an aim to reduce the likelihood of injuries, such as those resulting from vessel collisions, in these regions or during movements between coastal waters.

Spatio-temporal distribution of spinetail devil ray Mobula mobular in the eastern tropical Atlantic Ocean

The distribution of the spinetail devil ray Mobula mobular in the eastern tropical Atlantic remains poorly known compared to the Pacific and Indian Oceans. We used fishery-dependent data and generalized additive models to examine the environmental characteristics associated with the presence of M. mobular in the eastern Atlantic Ocean. Results revealed that the distribution of M. mobular is significantly associated with seasonal upwelling systems in coastal and pelagic areas. Our model predicted the presence of the species in areas where there is evidence of its occurrence, such as the Angolan upwelling system and the coast of Ghana. In addition, our model predicted new hotspot areas, including locations around the Mauritanian upwelling system, the Guinea coast, offshore Ghana and the south coast of Angola and Brazil, where sample sizes are limited. Those areas, as well as the environmental preferences depicted by the model, provide valuable information about the habitat and ecology of the spinetail devil ray. Future research lines derived from this study, as well as its limitations, are discussed. Furthermore, in light of our results we discuss the improvements that are needed to contribute to the conservation and management of this vulnerable species.

Ensemble modeling of the potential distribution of the whale shark in the Atlantic Ocean

The whale shark (Rhincodon typus) is an endangered marine fish species which can be adversely affected by the fishing activities of the industrial purse seine fleet targeting tropical tuna. Tuna tend to aggregate around all types of floating objects, including whale sharks. We analyzed and modeled the spatial distribution and environmental preferences of whale sharks based on the presence and absence data from fishing observations in the Atlantic Ocean. We used a thorough multialgorithm analysis, based on a new presence-absence dataset, and endeavored to follow the most recent recommendations on best practices in species distribution modeling. First, we selected a subset of relevant variables using a generalized linear model that addressed multicollinearity, statistical errors, and information criteria. We then used the selected variables to build a model ensemble including 19 different algorithms. After eliminating models with insufficient performance, we assessed the potential distribution of whale sharks using the mean of the predictions of the selected models. We also assessed the variance among the predictions of different algorithms, in order to identify areas with the highest model consensus. The results show that several coastal regions and warm shallow currents, such as the Gulf Stream and the Canary and Benguela currents, are the most suitable areas for whale sharks under current environmental conditions. Future environmental projections for the Atlantic Ocean suggest that some of the suitable regions will shift northward, but current concentration areas will continue to be suitable for whale shark, although with less productivity, which could have negative consequences for conservation of the species. We discuss the implications of these predictions for the conservation and management of this charismatic marine species.

Does bathymetry drive coastal whale shark (Rhincodon typus) aggregations?

BACKGROUND

The whale shark (Rhincodon typus) is known to aggregate in a number of coastal locations globally, however what causes these aggregations to form where they do is largely unknown. This study examines whether bathymetry is an important driver of coastal aggregation locations for R. typus through bathymetry's effect on primary productivity and prey availability. This is a global study taking into account all coastal areas within R. typus' range.

METHODS

R. typus aggregation locations were identified through an extensive literature review. Global bathymetric data were compared at R. typus aggregation locations and a large random selection of non-aggregation areas. Generalised linear models were used to assess which bathymetric characteristic had the biggest influence on aggregation presence.

RESULTS

Aggregation sites were significantly shallower than non-aggregation sites and in closer proximity to deep water (the mesopelagic zone) by two orders of magnitude. Slope at aggregation sites was significantly steeper than non-aggregation sites. These three bathymetric variables were shown to have the biggest association with aggregation sites, with up to 88% of deviation explained by the GLMs.

DISCUSSION

The three key bathymetric characteristics similar at the aggregation sites are known to induce upwelling events, increase primary productivity and consequently attract numerous other filter feeding species. The location of aggregation sites in these key areas can be attributed to this increased prey availability, thought to be the main reason R. typus aggregations occur, extensively outlined in the literature. The proximity of aggregations to shallow areas such as reefs could also be an important factor why whale sharks thermoregulate after deep dives to feed. These findings increase our understanding of whale shark behaviour and may help guide the identification and conservation of further aggregation sites.

Key Questions in Marine Megafauna Movement Ecology

It is a golden age for animal movement studies and so an opportune time to assess priorities for future work. We assembled 40 experts to identify key questions in this field, focussing on marine megafauna, which include a broad range of birds, mammals, reptiles, and fish. Research on these taxa has both underpinned many of the recent technical developments and led to fundamental discoveries in the field. We show that the questions have broad applicability to other taxa, including terrestrial animals, flying insects, and swimming invertebrates, and, as such, this exercise provides a useful roadmap for targeted deployments and data syntheses that should advance the field of movement ecology.

Error and bias in size estimates of whale sharks: implications for understanding demography

Body size and age at maturity are indicative of the vulnerability of a species to extinction. However, they are both difficult to estimate for large animals that cannot be restrained for measurement. For very large species such as whale sharks, body size is commonly estimated visually, potentially resulting in the addition of errors and bias. Here, we investigate the errors and bias associated with total lengths of whale sharks estimated visually by comparing them with measurements collected using a stereo-video camera system at Ningaloo Reef, Western Australia. Using linear mixed-effects models, we found that visual lengths were biased towards underestimation with increasing size of the shark. When using the stereo-video camera, the number of larger individuals that were possibly mature (or close to maturity) that were detected increased by approximately 10%. Mean lengths calculated by each method were, however, comparable (5.002 ± 1.194 and 6.128 ± 1.609 m, s.d.), confirming that the population at Ningaloo is mostly composed of immature sharks based on published lengths at maturity. We then collated data sets of total lengths sampled from aggregations of whale sharks worldwide between 1995 and 2013. Except for locations in the East Pacific where large females have been reported, these aggregations also largely consisted of juveniles (mean lengths less than 7 m). Sightings of the largest individuals were limited and occurred mostly prior to 2006. This result highlights the urgent need to locate and quantify the numbers of mature male and female whale sharks in order to ascertain the conservation status and ensure persistence of the species.

Dynamics of whale shark occurrence at their fringe oceanic habitat

Studies have shown that the whale shark (Rhincodon typus), a vulnerable large filter feeder, seasonally aggregates at highly productive coastal sites and that individuals can perform large, trans-boundary migrations to reach these locations. Yet, the whereabouts of the whale shark when absent from these sites and the potential oceanographic and biological drivers involved in shaping their present and future habitat use, including that located at the fringes of their suitable oceanic habitat, are largely unknown. We analysed a 16-year (1998-2013) observer dataset from the pole-and-line tuna fishery across the Azores (mid-North Atlantic) and used GAM models to investigate the spatial and temporal patterns of whale shark occurrence in relation to oceanographic features. Across this period, the whale shark became a regular summer visitor to the archipelago after a sharp increase in sighting frequency seen in 2008. We found that SST helps predicting their occurrence in the region associated to the position of the seasonal 22°C isotherm, showing that the Azores are at a thermal boundary for this species and providing an explanation for the post 2007 increase. Within the region, whale shark detections were also higher in areas of increased bathymetric slope and closer to the seamounts, coinciding with higher chl-a biomass, a behaviour most probably associated to increased feeding opportunities. They also showed a tendency to be clustered around the southernmost island of Santa Maria. This study shows that the region integrates the oceanic habitat of adult whale shark and suggests that an increase in its relative importance for the Atlantic population might be expected in face of climate change.