Pollen-based quantitative reconstructions of Holocene regional vegetation cover (plant-functional types and land-cover types) in Europe suitable for climate modelling

Neolithic Yersinia pestis infections in humans and a dog

Yersinia pestis has been infecting humans since the Late Neolithic (LN). Whether those early infections were isolated zoonoses or initiators of a pandemic remains unclear. We report Y. pestis infections in two individuals (of 133) from the LN necropolis at Warburg (Germany, 5300-4900 cal BP). Our analyses show that the two genomes belong to distinct strains and reflect independent infection events. All LN genomes known today (n = 4) are basal in the phylogeny and represent separate lineages that probably originated in different animal hosts. In the LN, an opening of the landscape resulted in the introduction of new rodent species, which may have acted as Y. pestis reservoirs. Coincidentally, the number of dogs increased, possibly leading to Y. pestis infections in canines. Indeed, we detect Y. pestis in an LN dog. Collectively, our data suggest that Y. pestis frequently entered human settlements at the time without causing significant outbreaks.

Legacy of last millennium timber use on plant cover in Central Europe: Insights from tree rings and pollen

Throughout history, humans have relied on wood for constructions, tool production or as an energy source. How and to what extent these human activities have impacted plant abundance and composition over a long-term perspective is, however, not well known. To address this knowledge gap, we combined 44,239 precisely dated tree-ring samples from economically and ecologically important tree species (spruce, fir, pine, oak) from historical buildings, and pollen-based plant cover estimates using the REVEALS model from 169 records for a total of 34 1° × 1° grid cells for Central Europe. Building activity and REVEALS estimates were compared for the entire study region (4-15°E, 46-51°N), and for low (<500 m asl) and mid/high elevations (≥500 m asl) in 100-year time windows over the period 1150-1850. Spruce and oak were more widely used in wooden constructions, amounting to 35 % and 32 %, respectively, compared to pine and fir. Besides wood properties and species abundance, tree diameters of harvested individuals, being similar for all four species, were found to be the most crucial criterion for timber selection throughout the last millennium. Regarding land use changes, from the 1150-1250's onwards, forest cover generally decreased due to deforestation until 1850, especially at lower elevations, resulting in a more heterogeneous landscape. The period 1650-1750 marks a distinct change in the environmental history of Central Europe; increasing agriculture and intense forest management practices were introduced to meet the high demands of an increasing population and intensifying industrialization, causing a decrease in palynological diversity, especially at low elevations. Likely the characteristic vegetation structure and composition of contemporary landscapes originated from that period. We further show that land use has impacted vegetation composition and diversity at an increasing speed leading to a general homogenization of landscapes through time, highlighting the limited environmental benefits of even-aged plantation forestry.

Substantial light woodland and open vegetation characterized the temperate forest biome before Homo sapiens

The extent of vegetation openness in past European landscapes is widely debated. In particular, the temperate forest biome has traditionally been defined as dense, closed-canopy forest; however, some argue that large herbivores maintained greater openness or even wood-pasture conditions. Here, we address this question for the Last Interglacial period (129,000-116,000 years ago), before Homo sapiens-linked megafauna declines and anthropogenic landscape transformation. We applied the vegetation reconstruction method REVEALS to 96 Last Interglacial pollen records. We found that light woodland and open vegetation represented, on average, more than 50% cover during this period. The degree of openness was highly variable and only partially linked to climatic factors, indicating the importance of natural disturbance regimes. Our results show that the temperate forest biome was historically heterogeneous rather than uniformly dense, which is consistent with the dependency of much of contemporary European biodiversity on open vegetation and light woodland.

Evaluation of relative pollen productivities in temperate China for reliable pollen-based quantitative reconstructions of Holocene plant cover

The Landscape Reconstruction Algorithm (LRA) is regarded as the soundest approach for quantifying taxon-specific plant cover from pollen data. The reliability of relative pollen productivity (RPP) estimates is fundamental in the accuracy of quantitative vegetation reconstruction using the LRA approach. Inconsistent RPP estimates produced by different studies can cast doubt on the reliability and applicability of quantitative vegetation reconstruction. Therefore, it is crucial that the RPP estimates are evaluated before being applied for quantitative vegetation reconstruction. We have tested two alternative approaches, namely, a leave-one-out cross-validation (LOO) method and a splitting-by-subregion strategy, using surface pollen assemblages and the REVEALS model-the first step in the LRA-to evaluate the reliability of RPPs estimates of 10 target taxa obtained in the cultural landscape of Shandong. We compared the REVEALS estimates (RVs) with observations of regional vegetation abundance (OBVs) and pollen proportions (PPs). The RVs of all taxa are generally closer to OBVs than PPs, and the degree of similarity depends strongly on the abundance of individual taxa in plant and pollen; taxa dominant in the region show the highest similarity between RVs and OBVs, such as Artemisia, Poaceae, and Humulus. The RVs of all herb taxa except Humulus and Asteraceae SF Cichorioideae are slightly overrepresented, and the RVs of all tree taxa are underrepresented except for Castanea. The comparison of RVs with OBVs collected from different spatial extents shows that the RVs of all herb taxa are more similar to OBVs collected from shorter distances (100 km and 75 km for the entire region and the subregion, respectively), whereas the RVs of all tree taxa are more similar to OBVs collected from longer distances (150 km and 100 km for the entire region and the subregion, respectively). Furthermore, our findings highlight the importance to test different sizes of area for vegetation surveys for evaluation of the RVs given that the appropriate size of vegetation survey may vary between low pollen producers (mainly herbs) and high pollen producers (mainly trees). We consider that the LOO strategy is the best approach in this case study for evaluating the RPP estimates from surface moss polsters. The evaluation confirms the reliability of the obtained RPP estimates for their potential application in quantitative reconstruction of vegetation abundance in temperate China.

Middle to late Holocene plant cover variation in relation to climate, fire, and human activity in the Songnen grasslands of northeastern China

INTRODUCTION

For future vegetation projections and conservation planning in grassland ecosystems, accurate estimates of past plant cover changes in grassland composition and their responses to the various driving factors are essential. This study quantitatively reconstructs the past regional plant cover in the Songnen grasslands (northeastern China) and explores the relative importance of climate, fire, and human activity on vegetation dynamics.

METHODS

For this purpose, the Regional Estimates of Vegetation Abundance from Large Sites (REVEALS) model is applied to three pollen records from two areas, two in the center of the Songnen grasslands and one located in an area marginal to the grasslands.

RESULTS

Results from the most reliable REVEALS scenarios show that from the mid-Holocene, steppe (mean cover 40.6%) and dry steppe (mean cover 54.2%) alternately dominated the central part of the Songnen grasslands while the marginal grasslands were mainly characterized by alternating broadleaved forests (mean cover 26.3%), coniferous forests (mean cover 41.9%) and dry steppes (mean cover 30.1%).

DISCUSSION

By comparing the plant cover results with previous published regional climate, fire and human activity records, the results show that long term vegetation dynamics were mainly driven by East Asia Summer Monsoon (EASM) and the related precipitation variations, but was also affected by fire frequency and human activity. Moreover, vegetation evolution was sensitive to abrupt cooling events including the 4.2 ka BP and stacked ice-rafted debris (IRD) events; the change from steppe to dry steppe, for example, was driven by these abrupt climate changes. Fire events can alter the original vegetation stability allowing the vegetation to respond rapidly to climate changes while human activity merely has limited influence on vegetation changes.

Historical Spruce Abundance in Central Europe: A Combined Dendrochronological and Palynological Approach

Spruce is the most cultivated tree species in modern forestry in Central Europe, since it has the ability to grow on many soil types with profitable biomass accumulation. However, even-aged and uniform spruce forests are affected by recurring droughts and associated biotic stressors leading to large-scale diebacks across Central Europe causing controversies among foresters and nature conservationists. We investigate the role of spruce in historical woodlands by using 15666 spruce timbers from historical buildings and on the basis of pollen-based land cover estimates using the REVEALS model from 157 pollen sites in southern Central Europe. Start and end dates of the spruce timber samples and their dendrological characteristics (age, growth rates and stem diameters) were used to obtain information on past forest structures. Tree rings and REVEALS estimates are combined at a spatial scale of 1° × 1° resolution, grouped in four sub-regions, and a temporal resolution of 100-year time windows starting from 1150 to 1850 CE. We found that spruce dominates the species assemblage of construction timber with almost 41% and that the harvest age varies little through time, whereas a declining trend in growth rates and stem diameters are observed toward times before modern forestry. Temporal and regional differences in spruce abundance and building activity were found highlighting periods of (i) land abandonment and forest expansion in the 14th century, (ii) increased wood consumption during the 16th century due to population increase and beginning industrial developments, (iii) a forest recovery during and after the Thirty years' war, and (iv) afforestation efforts from the 1650s onwards. Furthermore, this study shows that spruce was constantly present in the study area in most studied sub-regions for the last 800 years. We demonstrate the need of combining tree-ring and pollen data to identify spatiotemporal patterns in spruce abundance and utilization.

Pollen-based reconstruction reveals the impact of the onset of agriculture on plant functional trait composition

The onset of agriculture improved the capacity of ecosystems to produce food, but inadvertently altered other vital ecosystem functions. Plant traits play a central role in determining ecosystem properties, therefore we investigated how the onset of agriculture in Europe changed plant trait composition using 78 pollen records. Using a novel Bayesian approach for reconstructing plant trait composition from pollen records, we provide a robust method that can account for trait variability within pollen types. We estimate an overall four-fold decrease in plant size through agriculture and associated decreases in leaf and seed size. We show an increase in niche space towards the resource-acquisitive end of the leaf economic spectrum. Decreases in leaf phosphorus might have been caused by nutrient depletion through grazing and burning. Our results show that agriculture, from its start, has likely been gradually impacting biogeochemical cycles through altered vegetation composition.

Pollen-Based Maps of Past Regional Vegetation Cover in Europe Over 12 Millennia—Evaluation and Potential

Realistic and accurate reconstructions of past vegetation cover are necessary to study past environmental changes. This is important since the effects of human land-use changes (e.g. agriculture, deforestation and afforestation/reforestation) on biodiversity and climate are still under debate. Over the last decade, development, validation, and application of pollen-vegetation relationship models have made it possible to estimate plant abundance from fossil pollen data at both local and regional scales. In particular, the REVEALS model has been applied to produce datasets of past regional plant cover at 1° spatial resolution at large subcontinental scales (North America, Europe, and China). However, such reconstructions are spatially discontinuous due to the discrete and irregular geographical distribution of sites (lakes and peat bogs) from which fossil pollen records have been produced. Therefore, spatial statistical models have been developed to create continuous maps of past plant cover using the REVEALS-based land cover estimates. In this paper, we present the first continuous time series of spatially complete maps of past plant cover across Europe during the Holocene (25 time windows covering the period from 11.7 k BP to present). We use a spatial-statistical model for compositional data to interpolate REVEALS-based estimates of three major land-cover types (LCTs), i.e., evergreen trees, summer-green trees and open land (grasses, herbs and low shrubs); producing spatially complete maps of the past coverage of these three LCTs. The spatial model uses four auxiliary data sets—latitude, longitude, elevation, and independent scenarios of past anthropogenic land-cover change based on per-capita land-use estimates (“standard” KK10 scenarios)—to improve model performance for areas with complex topography or few observations. We evaluate the resulting reconstructions for selected time windows using present day maps from the European Forest Institute, cross validate, and compare the results with earlier pollen-based spatially-continuous estimates for five selected time windows, i.e., 100 BP-present, 350–100 BP, 700–350 BP, 3.2–2.7 k BP, and 6.2–5.7 k BP. The evaluations suggest that the statistical model provides robust spatial reconstructions. From the maps we observe the broad change in the land-cover of Europe from dominance of naturally open land and persisting remnants of continental ice in the Early Holocene to a high fraction of forest cover in the Mid Holocene, and anthropogenic deforestation in the Late Holocene. The temporal and spatial continuity is relevant for land-use, land-cover, and climate research.

Pollen Geochronology from the Atlantic Coast of the United States during the Last 500 Years

Building robust age–depth models to understand climatic and geologic histories from coastal sedimentary archives often requires composite chronologies consisting of multi-proxy age markers. Pollen chronohorizons derived from a known change in vegetation are important for age–depth models, especially those with other sparse or imprecise age markers. However, the accuracy of pollen chronohorizons compared to other age markers and the impact of pollen chronohorizons on the precision of age–depth models, particularly in salt marsh environments, is poorly understood. Here, we combine new and published pollen data from eight coastal wetlands (salt marshes and mangroves) along the Atlantic Coast of the United States (U.S.) from Florida to Connecticut to define the age and uncertainty of 17 pollen chronohorizons. We found that 13 out of 17 pollen chronohorizons were consistent when compared to other age markers (radiocarbon, radionuclide 137Cs and pollution markers). Inconsistencies were likely related to the hyperlocality of pollen chronohorizons, mixing of salt marsh sediment, reworking of pollen from nearby tidal flats, misidentification of pollen signals, and inaccuracies in or misinterpretation of other age markers. Additionally, in a total of 24 models, including one or more pollen chronohorizons, increased precision (up to 41 years) or no change was found in 18 models.

Spatially Continuous Land-Cover Reconstructions Through the Holocene in Southern Sweden

Climate change and human activities influence the development of ecosystems, with human demand of ecosystem services altering both land use and land cover. Fossil pollen records provide time series of vegetation characteristics, and the aim of this study was to create spatially continuous reconstructions of land cover through the Holocene in southern Sweden. The Landscape Reconstruction Algorithm (LRA) was applied to obtain quantitative reconstructions of pollen-based vegetation cover at local scales, accounting for pollen production, dispersal, and deposition mechanisms. Pollen-based local vegetation estimates were produced from 41 fossil pollen records available for the region. A comparison of 17 interpolation methods was made and evaluated by comparing with current land cover. Simple kriging with cokriging using elevation was selected to interpolate the local characteristics of past land cover, to generate more detailed reconstructions of trends and degree of variability in time and space than previous studies based on pollen data representing the regional scale. Since the Mesolithic, two main processes have acted to reshape the land cover of southern Sweden, originally mostly covered by broad-leaved forests. The natural distribution limit of coniferous forest has moved southward during periods with colder climate and retracted northward during warmer periods, and human expansion in the area and agrotechnological developments has led to a gradually more open landscape, reaching maximum openness at the beginning of the 20th century. The recent intensification of agriculture has led to abandonment of less fertile agricultural fields and afforestation with conifer forest.

A Semi-Parametric Geographically Weighted Regression Approach to Exploring Driving Factors of Fractional Vegetation Cover: A Case Study of Guangdong

Ecological degradation caused by rapid urbanisation has presented great challenges in southern China. Fractional vegetation cover (FVC) has long been the most common and sensitive index to describe vegetation growth and to monitor vegetation degradation. However, most of the studies have failed to adequately explore the complexity of the relationship between fractional vegetation cover (FVC) and impact factors. In this research, we first constructed a Semi-parametric Geographically Weighted Regression (SGWR) model to analyse both the stationary and nonstationary spatial relationships between FVC and driving factors in Guangdong province in southern China on a county level. Then, climate, topographic, land cover, and socio-economic factors were introduced into the model to distinguish impacts on FVC from 2000–2015. Results suggest that the positive and negative effects of rainfall and elevation coefficients alternated, and local urban land and population estimates indicated a negative association between FVC and the modelled factors in each period. The SGWR FVC make significantly improves performance of the geographically weighted regression and ordinary least squares models, with adjusted R2 higher than 0.78. The findings of this research demonstrated that, although urbanisation in the Pearl River Delta in Guangdong has encroached on the regional vegetation cover, the total vegetation area remained unchanged with the implementation of protection policies and regulations.

Archaeological assessment reveals Earth’s early transformation through land use

Environmentally transformative human use of land accelerated with the emergence of agriculture, but the extent, trajectory, and implications of these early changes are not well understood. An empirical global assessment of land use from 10,000 years before the present (yr B.P.) to 1850 CE reveals a planet largely transformed by hunter-gatherers, farmers, and pastoralists by 3000 years ago, considerably earlier than the dates in the land-use reconstructions commonly used by Earth scientists. Synthesis of knowledge contributed by more than 250 archaeologists highlighted gaps in archaeological expertise and data quality, which peaked for 2000 yr B.P. and in traditionally studied and wealthier regions. Archaeological reconstruction of global land-use history illuminates the deep roots of Earth’s transformation and challenges the emerging Anthropocene paradigm that large-scale anthropogenic global environmental change is mostly a recent phenomenon.

A 110-year pollen record of land use and land cover changes in an anthropogenic watershed landscape, eastern China: Understanding past human-environment interactions

Land use and land cover changes (LUCCs) have largely altered terrestrial ecosystems and landscapes during the Anthropocene. Reconstructing past LUCCs is necessary to better understand terrestrial ecosystem succession and human-environment interactions so that ecosystem services can be used conservatively and developed sustainably. In this paper, we reconstructed the LUCCs over the past century in a typical anthropogenic watershed based on a high-resolution pollen record from Changdang Lake, eastern China. The sediment core was ²¹⁰Pb dated and constrained cluster analysis identified different periods of LUCCs associated with the 110-year pollen record. Multi-sedimentary proxies, historical records, and remote sensing LUCC maps were analyzed to complement the palynological results. Our results demonstrate that pollen records can accurately capture LUCCs during different historical periods. Extra-regional arboreal pollen, fern spores, and pollen concentration can record the hydrological variations of waterbodies under both climatic and anthropogenic impacts. Multiple agriculture-related pollen indicators, such as cereal, Cruciferae, and wetland taxa are significantly related to the corresponding vegetation cover and landscape variations. Specifically, the anthropochore taxa to wetland taxa ratio is a good indicator of agricultural intensity. Dominant arboreal pollen (Pinus and Quercus) and the arboreal taxa to non-arboreal taxa ratio reflects the forestry landscape changes. Urban greening arboreal pollen (including Platanus, Salix, and Ulmus) is found to be an indirect indicator of urbanization. In addition, agriculture and urbanization in the region are causing the pollen diversity to increase in lake sediments. This study from a shallow lake in eastern China contributes to our understanding of pollen-based LUCC studies in similar climatic and anthropogenic regions around the world.

A Review of Relative Pollen Productivity Estimates From Temperate China for Pollen-Based Quantitative Reconstruction of Past Plant Cover

Model-based quantitative reconstruction of past plant cover in Europe has shown great potential for: (i) testing hypotheses related to Holocene vegetation dynamics, biodiversity, and their relationships with climate and land use; (ii) studying long term interactions between climate and land use. Similar model-based quantitative reconstruction of plant cover in China has been restricted due to the lack of standardized datasets of existing estimates of relative pollen productivity (RPP). This study presents the first synthesis of all RPP values available to date for 39 major plant taxa from temperate China and proposes standardized RPP datasets that can be used for model-based quantitative reconstructions of past plant cover using fossil pollen records for the region. We review 11 RPP studies in temperate China based on modern pollen and related vegetation data around the pollen samples. The study areas include meadow, steppe and desert vegetation, various woodland types, and cultural landscapes. We evaluate the strategies of each study in terms of selection of study areas and distribution of study sites; pollen- and vegetation-data collection in field; vegetation-data collection from satellite images and vegetation maps; and data analysis. We compare all available RPP estimates, select values based on precise rules and calculate mean RPP estimates. We propose two standardized RPP datasets for 31 (Alt1) and 29 (Alt2) plant taxa. The ranking of mean RPPs (Alt-2) relative to Poaceae (= 1) for eight major taxa is: Artemisia (21) > Pinus (18.4) > Betula (12.5) > Castanea (11.5) > Elaeagnaceae (8.8) > Juglans (7.5) > Compositae (4.5) > Amaranthaceae/Chenopodiaceae (4). We conclude that although RPPs are comparable between Europe and China for some genera and families, they can differ very significantly, e.g., Artemisia, Compositae, and Amaranthaceae/Chenopodiaceae. For some taxa, we present the first RPP estimates e.g. Castanea, Elaeagnaceae, and Juglans. The proposed standardized RPP datasets are essential for model-based reconstructions of past plant cover using fossil pollen records from temperate China.

Predictive pollen-based biome modeling using machine learning

This paper investigates suitability of supervised machine learning classification methods for classification of biomes using pollen datasets. We assign modern pollen samples from Africa and Arabia to five biome classes using a previously published African pollen dataset and a global ecosystem classification scheme. To test the applicability of traditional and machine-learning based classification models for the task of biome prediction from high dimensional modern pollen data, we train a total of eight classification models, including Linear Discriminant Analysis, Logistic Regression, Naïve Bayes, K-Nearest Neighbors, Classification Decision Tree, Random Forest, Neural Network, and Support Vector Machine. The ability of each model to predict biomes from pollen data is statistically tested on an independent test set. The Random Forest classifier outperforms other models in its ability correctly classify biomes given pollen data. Out of the eight models, the Random Forest classifier scores highest on all of the metrics used for model evaluations and is able to predict four out of five biome classes to high degree of accuracy, including arid, montane, tropical and subtropical closed and open systems, e.g. forests and savanna/grassland. The model has the potential for accurate reconstructions of past biomes and awaits application to fossil pollen sequences. The Random Forest model may be used to investigate vegetation changes on both long and short time scales, e.g. during glacial and interglacial cycles, or more recent and abrupt climatic anomalies like the African Humid Period. Such applications may contribute to a better understanding of past shifts in vegetation cover and ultimately provide valuable information on drivers of climate change.

Land uplift creates important meadow habitat and a potential original niche for grassland species

Semi-natural grasslands have been severely affected by agricultural land-use change. However, the isostatic land adjustment following deglaciation in the Northern Hemisphere means that new land is continually being created in coastal areas. We modelled isostatic adjustment during the last 4000 years in a region of the Baltic coast to estimate the emergence of potential grassland habitat. We also compared the α and β diversity of existing managed and abandoned coastal meadows, and assessed their contribution to biodiversity at landscape scales. We estimated that half the 7866 km² of emerging land had the potential to become coastal meadow habitat, which is an order of magnitude larger than the total area of all valuable semi-natural grassland in the study region today. The small area of managed coastal habitat remaining was found to have a disproportionate influence on the richness of threatened species at landscape scales, but our results also show that continued management is essential for the maintenance of grassland biodiversity. Our combination of approaches identifies uplifted coastal meadows as an additional original niche for grassland plant species, while highlighting that low-intensity disturbance through grassland management is essential for the maintenance of diversity at multiple scales.

Europe's lost forests: a pollen-based synthesis for the last 11,000 years

8000 years ago, prior to Neolithic agriculture, Europe was mostly a wooded continent. Since then, its forest cover has been progressively fragmented, so that today it covers less than half of Europe's land area, in many cases having been cleared to make way for fields and pasture-land. Establishing the origin of Europe's current, more open land-cover mosaic requires a long-term perspective, for which pollen analysis offers a key tool. In this study we utilise and compare three numerical approaches to transforming pollen data into past forest cover, drawing on >1000 ¹⁴C-dated site records. All reconstructions highlight the different histories of the mixed temperate and the northern boreal forests, with the former declining progressively since ~6000 years ago, linked to forest clearance for agriculture in later prehistory (especially in northwest Europe) and early historic times (e.g. in north central Europe). In contrast, extensive human impact on the needle-leaf forests of northern Europe only becomes detectable in the last two millennia and has left a larger area of forest in place. Forest loss has been a dominant feature of Europe's landscape ecology in the second half of the current interglacial, with consequences for carbon cycling, ecosystem functioning and biodiversity.

European Forest Cover During the Past 12,000 Years: A Palynological Reconstruction Based on Modern Analogs and Remote Sensing

Characterization of land cover change in the past is fundamental to understand the evolution and present state of the Earth system, the amount of carbon and nutrient stocks in terrestrial ecosystems, and the role played by land-atmosphere interactions in influencing climate. The estimation of land cover changes using palynology is a mature field, as thousands of sites in Europe have been investigated over the last century. Nonetheless, a quantitative land cover reconstruction at a continental scale has been largely missing. Here, we present a series of maps detailing the evolution of European forest cover during last 12,000 years. Our reconstructions are based on the Modern Analog Technique (MAT): a calibration dataset is built by coupling modern pollen samples with the corresponding satellite-based forest-cover data. Fossil reconstructions are then performed by assigning to every fossil sample the average forest cover of its closest modern analogs. The occurrence of fossil pollen assemblages with no counterparts in modern vegetation represents a known limit of analog-based methods. To lessen the influence of no-analog situations, pollen taxa were converted into plant functional types prior to running the MAT algorithm. We then interpolate site-specific reconstructions for each timeslice using a four-dimensional gridding procedure to create continuous gridded maps at a continental scale. The performance of the MAT is compared against methodologically independent forest-cover reconstructions produced using the REVEALS method. MAT and REVEALS estimates are most of the time in good agreement at a trend level, yet MAT regularly underestimates the occurrence of densely forested situations, requiring the application of a bias correction procedure. The calibrated MAT-based maps draw a coherent picture of the establishment of forests in Europe in the Early Holocene with the greatest forest-cover fractions reconstructed between ∼8,500 and 6,000 calibrated years BP. This forest maximum is followed by a general decline in all parts of the continent, likely as a result of anthropogenic deforestation. The continuous spatial and temporal nature of our reconstruction, its continental coverage, and gridded format make it suitable for climate, hydrological, and biogeochemical modeling, among other uses.

Coat colour adaptation of post-glacial horses to increasing forest vegetation

Wild horses unexpectedly survived terminal Pleistocene megafaunal extinctions until eventual European extirpation in the twentieth century. This survival is tied to either their occurrence in cryptic open habitats or their adaptation to forests. Our niche modelling inferred an increasing presence of horses in post-glacial forests, and our analysis of ancient DNA suggested significant selection for black phenotypes as indicating adaptation to forests.

Using historical ecology to reassess the conservation status of coniferous forests in Central Europe

Forests cover approximately one-third of Central Europe. Oak (Quercus) and European beech (Fagus sylvatica) are considered the natural dominants at low and middle elevations, respectively. Many coniferous forests (especially of Picea abies) occur primarily at midelevations, but these are thought to have resulted from forestry plantations planted over the past 200 years. Nature conservation and forestry policy seek to promote broadleaved trees over conifers. However, there are discrepancies between conservation guidelines (included in Natura 2000) and historical and palaeoecological data with regard to the distribution of conifers. Our aim was to bring new evidence to the debate on the conservation of conifers versus broadleaved trees at midelevations in Central Europe. We created a vegetation and land-cover model based on pollen data for a highland area of 11,300 km² in the Czech Republic and assessed tree species composition in the forests before the onset of modern forestry based on 18th-century archival sources. Conifers dominated the study region throughout the entire Holocene (approximately 40-60% of the area). Broadleaved trees were present in a much smaller area than envisaged by current ideas of natural vegetation. Rather than casting doubt on the principles of Central European nature conservation in general, our results highlight the necessity of detailed regional investigations and the importance of historical data in challenging established notions on the natural distribution of tree species.

Twenty-first century approaches to ancient problems: Climate and society

By documenting how humans adapted to changes in their environment that are often much greater than those experienced in the instrumental record, archaeology provides our only deep-time laboratory for highlighting the circumstances under which humans managed or failed to find to adaptive solutions to changing climate, not just over a few generations but over the longue durée Patterning between climate-mediated environmental change and change in human societies has, however, been murky because of low spatial and temporal resolution in available datasets, and because of failure to model the effects of climate change on local resources important to human societies. In this paper we review recent advances in computational modeling that, in conjunction with improving data, address these limitations. These advances include network analysis, niche and species distribution modeling, and agent-based modeling. These studies demonstrate the utility of deep-time modeling for calibrating our understanding of how climate is influencing societies today and may in the future.

The origin of grasslands in the temperate forest zone of east-central Europe: long-term legacy of climate and human impact

The post-glacial fate of central European grasslands has stimulated palaeoecological debates for a century. Some argued for the continuous survival of open land, while others claimed that closed forest had developed during the Middle Holocene. The reasons behind stability or changes in the proportion of open land are also unclear. We aim to reconstruct regional vegetation openness and test the effects of climate and human impact on vegetation change throughout the Holocene. We present a newly dated pollen record from north-western fringes of the Pannonian Plain, east-central Europe, and reconstruct Holocene regional vegetation development by the REVEALS model for 27 pollen-equivalent taxa. Estimated vegetation is correlated in the same area with a human activity model based on all available archaeological information and a macrophysical climate model. The palaeovegetation record indicates the continuous presence of open land throughout the Holocene. Grasslands and open woodlands were probably maintained by local arid climatic conditions during the early Holocene delaying the spread of deciduous (oak) forests. Significantly detectable human-made landscape transformation started only after 2000 BC. Our analyses suggest that Neolithic people spread into a landscape that was already open. Humans probably contributed to the spread of oak, and influenced the dynamics of hazel and hornbeam.

From forest to farmland: pollen-inferred land cover change across Europe using the pseudobiomization approach

Maps of continental-scale land cover are utilized by a range of diverse users but whilst a range of products exist that describe present and recent land cover in Europe, there are currently no datasets that describe past variations over long time-scales. User groups with an interest in past land cover include the climate modelling community, socio-ecological historians and earth system scientists. Europe is one of the continents with the longest histories of land conversion from forest to farmland, thus understanding land cover change in this area is globally significant. This study applies the pseudobiomization method (PBM) to 982 pollen records from across Europe, taken from the European Pollen Database (EPD) to produce a first synthesis of pan-European land cover change for the period 9000 bp to present, in contiguous 200 year time intervals. The PBM transforms pollen proportions from each site to one of eight land cover classes (LCCs) that are directly comparable to the CORINE land cover classification. The proportion of LCCs represented in each time window provides a spatially aggregated record of land cover change for temperate and northern Europe, and for a series of case study regions (western France, the western Alps, and the Czech Republic and Slovakia). At the European scale, the impact of Neolithic food producing economies appear to be detectable from 6000 bp through reduction in broad-leaf forests resulting from human land use activities such as forest clearance. Total forest cover at a pan-European scale moved outside the range of previous background variability from 4000 bp onwards. From 2200 bp land cover change intensified, and the broad pattern of land cover for preindustrial Europe was established by 1000 bp. Recognizing the timing of anthropogenic land cover change in Europe will further the understanding of land cover-climate interactions, and the origins of the modern cultural landscape.