Climate change-related regime shifts have altered spatial synchrony of plankton dynamics in the North Sea

Insights Into Spatial Synchrony Enabled by Long-Term Data

Spatial synchrony, the tendency for temporal fluctuations in an ecological variable to be positively associated in different locations, is a widespread and important phenomenon in ecology. Understanding of the nature and mechanisms of synchrony, and how synchrony is changing, has developed rapidly over the past 2 decades. Many recent developments have taken place through the study of long-term data sets. Here, we review and synthesise some important recent advances in spatial synchrony, with a focus on how long-term data have facilitated new understanding. Longer time series do not just facilitate better testing of existing ideas or more precise statistical results; more importantly, they also frequently make possible the expansion of conceptual paradigms. We discuss several such advances in our understanding of synchrony, how long-term data led to these advances, and how future studies can continue to improve the state of knowledge.

Warming-driven increased synchrony of tree growth across the southernmost part of the Asian boreal forests

Climate change has profoundly affected the synchrony of tree growth at multiple scales, thereby altering the structure and function of forest ecosystems. The Asian boreal forests extend southward to the Greater Khingan Range in northeast China. Given the ecological importance and susceptibility to climate change, the impacts of warming on this marginal forest community have been extensively investigated. Nonetheless, how tree growth synchrony changes across this region remains less understood. Focusing on this knowledge gap, we compiled a contiguously-distributed tree-ring network, containing 18 sampling populations and 475 individual larch trees, to explore the changes in multiple-scale growth synchrony across this region. We found increasing growth synchrony at both the individual and population levels over the past decades. The increasing trend of the regional inter-population growth synchrony was well in line with the increasing temperature and PDSI. Furthermore, 11 of the 18 sampling populations showed significant increases in their intra-population growth synchrony. We further associated the sliding intra-population growth synchrony with local climates. Intra-population growth synchrony of 13 and 11 sampling populations were significantly positively correlated with local temperature, and negatively correlated with local PDSI, respectively, demonstrating the driving role of warming-induced drought on growth synchrony. The linear regression model quantifying this relationship suggested that an increase of 1 °C in annual mean temperature would drive the intra-population growth synchrony to increase by 0.047. As warming trends in the study area are projected to continue over this century, our study warns of the further consequences of the increasing growth synchrony may have on the functioning, resilience, and persistence of forests.

Relative prevalence of top-down versus bottom-up control in planktonic ecosystem under eutrophication and climate change: A comparative study of typical bay and estuary

Eutrophication and climate change may affect the top-down versus bottom-up controls in aquatic ecosystems. However, the relative prevalence of the two controls in planktonic ecosystems along the eutrophication and climate gradients has rarely been addressed. Here, using the field surveys of 17 years in a typical bay and estuary, we test two opposite patterns of trophic control dominance and their response to regional temporal eutrophication and climate fluctuations. It was found that trophic control of planktonic ecosystems fluctuated between the dominance of top-down and bottom-up controls on time scales in both the bay and estuary studied. The relative prevalence of these two controls in both ecosystems was significantly driven directly by regional dissolved inorganic nitrogen but, for the estuary, also by the nonlinear effects of regional sea surface temperature. In terms of indirect pathways, community relationships (synchrony and grazing pressure) in the bay are driven by both regional dissolved inorganic nitrogen - soluble reactive phosphorus ratio and sea surface temperature, but this drive did not continue to be transmitted to the trophic control. Conversely, trophic control in estuary was directly related to grazing pressure and indirectly related to synchrony. These findings support the view that eutrophication and climate drive the relative prevalence of top-down versus bottom-up controls at ecosystem and temporal scales in planktonic ecosystems, which has important implications for predicting the potential impacts of anthropogenic and environmental perturbations on the structure and function of marine ecosystems.

Interspecific synchrony on breeding performance and the role of anthropogenic food subsidies

Synchrony can have important consequences for long-term metapopulations persistence, community dynamics and ecosystems functioning. While the causes and consequences of intra-specific synchrony on population size and demographic rates have received considerable attention only a few factors that may affect inter-specific synchrony have been described. We formulate the hypothesis that food subsidies can buffer the influence of environmental stochasticity on community dynamics, disrupting and masking originally synchronized systems. To illustrate this hypothesis, we assessed the consequences of European policies implementation affecting subsidy availability on the temporal synchrony of egg volume as a proxy of breeding investment in two sympatric marine top predators with differential subsidy use. We show how 7-year synchrony appears on egg volume fluctuations after subsidy cessation suggesting that food subsidies could disrupt interspecific synchrony. Moreover, cross correlation increased after subsidy cessation and environmental buffering seems to act during synchronization period. We emphasize that subsidies dynamics and waste management provide novel insights on the emergence of synchrony in natural populations.

Advances in understanding the drivers of population spatial synchrony

The causes of spatial synchrony in population dynamics are often elusive. We review how recent advances have enhanced understanding of the causes of the spatial synchrony of insect populations and revealed previously underappreciated complexities in patterns of synchrony. We highlight how regional-scale studies of population genetic structure have helped elucidate the role of dispersal in population synchronization and how novel data-analytic approaches have revealed variation in spatial synchrony across timescales and geographies and the underlying drivers. We also stress the limited current understanding of the impacts of climate change on the spatial synchrony of insect populations and the potential ramifications of these effects for pest management as well as species conservation.

Disturbance and nutrients synchronise kelp forests across scales through interacting Moran effects

Spatial synchrony is a ubiquitous and important feature of population dynamics, but many aspects of this phenomenon are not well understood. In particular, it is largely unknown how multiple environmental drivers interact to determine synchrony via Moran effects, and how these impacts vary across spatial and temporal scales. Using new wavelet statistical techniques, we characterised synchrony in populations of giant kelp Macrocystis pyrifera, a widely distributed marine foundation species, and related synchrony to variation in oceanographic conditions across 33 years (1987-2019) and >900 km of coastline in California, USA. We discovered that disturbance (storm-driven waves) and resources (seawater nutrients)-underpinned by climatic variability-act individually and interactively to produce synchrony in giant kelp across geography and timescales. Our findings demonstrate that understanding and predicting synchrony, and thus the regional stability of populations, relies on resolving the synergistic and antagonistic Moran effects of multiple environmental drivers acting on different timescales.

Environmental Impact on Harmful Species Pseudo-nitzschia spp. and Phaeocystis globosa Phenology and Niche

Global environmental change modifies the phytoplankton community, which leads to variations in their phenology and potentially causes a temporal mismatch between primary producers and consumers. In parallel, phytoplankton community change can favor the appearance of harmful species, which makes the understanding of the mechanisms involved in structuring phytoplankton ecological niches paramount for preventing future risk. In this study, we aimed to assess for the first time the relationship between environmental conditions, phenology and niche ecology of harmful species Phaeocystis globosa and the complex Pseudo-nitzschia along the French coast of the eastern English Channel. A new method of bloom detection within a time-series was developed, which allowed the characterization of 363 blooms by 22 phenological variables over 11 stations from 1998 to 2019. The pairwise quantification of asymmetric dependencies between the phenological variables revealed the implication of different mechanisms, common and distinct between the taxa studied. A PERMANOVA helped to reveal the importance of seasonal change in the environmental and community variables. The Outlying Mean and the Within Outlying Mean indexes allowed us to position the harmful taxa niche among the rest of community and quantify how their respective phenology impacted the dynamic of their subniches. We also discussed the possible hypothesis involved and the perspective of predictive models.

The underlying causes and effects of phytoplankton seasonal turnover on resource use efficiency in freshwater lakes

The extent of intra-annual turnover in phytoplankton communities is directly associated with the overall diversity. However, our understanding of the underlying causes and effects of intra-annual turnover remains limited. In this study, we performed a two-season investigation of the phytoplankton composition in the lakes of the Yangtze River catchment in China in spring and summer 2012, which covered a regional spatial scale. We analyzed the Sørensen pairwise dissimilarity (βsor) between the two seasons, their driving factors, and effects on resource use efficiency in phytoplankton. The results showed that the changes in phytoplankton composition from spring to summer were not synchronous among these lakes. The spatial environmental characteristics, temporal changes in environmental variables and the initial phytoplankton composition together explained the variation in βsor for phytoplankton, and their explanatory powers and primary driving variables depended on the phytoplankton taxonomic groups. Among the driving variables, increased nitrogen level and seasonal temperature difference will promote spring-summer community turnover and then improve the phosphorus use efficiency of phytoplankton community. The species diversity of the initial community might increase its stability and slow the spring-summer shift in phytoplankton, especially in cyanobacteria and Chlorophyta. Our study highlights the understanding of the patterns and underlying causes of temporal beta diversity in freshwater phytoplankton communities.

Variation in synchrony of production among species, sites, and intertidal zones in coastal marshes

Spatially synchronous population dynamics are important to ecosystem functioning and have several potential causes. By looking at synchrony in plant productivity over 18 yr across two elevations in three types of coastal marsh habitat dominated by different clonal plant species in Georgia, USA, we were able to explore the importance of plant species and different habitat conditions to synchrony. Synchrony was highest when comparing within a plant species and within a marsh zone, and decreased across species, with increasing distance, and with increasing elevational differences. Abiotic conditions that were measured at individual sites (water column temperature and salinity) also showed high synchrony among sites, and in one case (salinity) decreased with increasing distance among sites. The Moran effect (synchronous abiotic conditions among sites) is the most plausible explanation for our findings. Decreased synchrony between creekbank and mid-marsh zones, and among habitat types (tidal fresh, brackish, and salt marsh) was likely due in part to different exposure to abiotic conditions and in part to variation in sensitivity of dominant plant species to these abiotic conditions. We found no evidence for asynchrony among species, sites or zones, indicating that one habitat type or zone will not compensate for poor production in another during years with low productivity; however, tidal fresh, brackish. and salt marsh sites were also not highly synchronous with each other, which will moderate productivity variation among years at the landscape level due to the portfolio effect. We identified the creekbank zone as more sensitive than the mid-marsh to abiotic variation and therefore as a priority for monitoring and management.

A new approach to interspecific synchrony in population ecology using tail association

Standard methods for studying the association between two ecologically important variables provide only a small slice of the information content of the association, but statistical approaches are available that provide comprehensive information. In particular, available approaches can reveal tail associations, that is, accentuated or reduced associations between the more extreme values of variables. We here study the nature and causes of tail associations between phenological or population-density variables of co-located species, and their ecological importance. We employ a simple method of measuring tail associations which we call the partial Spearman correlation. Using multidecadal, multi-species spatiotemporal datasets on aphid first flights and marine phytoplankton population densities, we assess the potential for tail association to illuminate two major topics of study in community ecology: the stability or instability of aggregate community measures such as total community biomass and its relationship with the synchronous or compensatory dynamics of the community's constituent species; and the potential for fluctuations and trends in species phenology to result in trophic mismatches. We find that positively associated fluctuations in the population densities of co-located species commonly show asymmetric tail associations; that is, it is common for two species' densities to be more correlated when large than when small, or vice versa. Ordinary measures of association such as correlation do not take this asymmetry into account. Likewise, positively associated fluctuations in the phenology of co-located species also commonly show asymmetric tail associations. We provide evidence that tail associations between two or more species' population-density or phenology time series can be inherited from mutual tail associations of these quantities with an environmental driver. We argue that our understanding of community dynamics and stability, and of phenologies of interacting species, can be meaningfully improved in future work by taking into account tail associations.

The crossover from microscopy to genes in marine diversity: from species to assemblages in marine pelagic copepods

An accurate identification of species and communities is a prerequisite for analysing and recording biodiversity and community shifts. In the context of marine biodiversity conservation and management, this review outlines past, present and forward-looking perspectives on identifying and recording planktonic diversity by illustrating the transition from traditional species identification based on morphological diagnostic characters to full molecular genetic identification of marine assemblages. In this process, the article presents the methodological advancements by discussing progress and critical aspects of the crossover from traditional to novel and future molecular genetic identifications and it outlines the advantages of integrative approaches using the strengths of both morphological and molecular techniques to identify species and assemblages. We demonstrate this process of identifying and recording marine biodiversity on pelagic copepods as model taxon. Copepods are known for their high taxonomic and ecological diversity and comprise a huge variety of behaviours, forms and life histories, making them a highly interesting and well-studied group in terms of biodiversity and ecosystem functioning. Furthermore, their short life cycles and rapid responses to changing environments make them good indicators and core research components for ecosystem health and status in the light of environmental change. This article is part of the theme issue 'Integrative research perspectives on marine conservation'.

Scaling-up biodiversity-ecosystem functioning research

A rich body of knowledge links biodiversity to ecosystem functioning (BEF), but it is primarily focused on small scales. We review the current theory and identify six expectations for scale dependence in the BEF relationship: (1) a nonlinear change in the slope of the BEF relationship with spatial scale; (2) a scale‐dependent relationship between ecosystem stability and spatial extent; (3) coexistence within and among sites will result in a positive BEF relationship at larger scales; (4) temporal autocorrelation in environmental variability affects species turnover and thus the change in BEF slope with scale; (5) connectivity in metacommunities generates nonlinear BEF and stability relationships by affecting population  synchrony at local and regional scales; (6) spatial scaling in food web structure and diversity will generate scale dependence in ecosystem functioning. We suggest directions for synthesis that combine approaches in metaecosystem and metacommunity ecology and integrate cross‐scale feedbacks. Tests of this theory may combine remote sensing with a generation of networked experiments that assess effects at multiple scales. We also show how anthropogenic land cover change may alter the scaling of the BEF relationship. New research on the role of scale in BEF will guide policy linking the goals of managing biodiversity and ecosystems.

Shifts in trait-based and taxonomic macrofauna community structure along a 27-year time-series in the south-eastern North Sea

Current research revealed distinct changes in ecosystem functions, and thus in ecosystem stability and resilience, caused by changes in community structure and diversity loss. Benthic species play an important role in benthic-pelagic coupling, such as through the remineralization of deposited organic material, and changes to benthic community structure and diversity have associated with changes in ecosystem functioning, ecosystem stability and resilience. However, the long-term variability of traits and functions in benthic communities is largely unknown. By using abundance and bioturbation potential of macrofauna samples, taken along a transect from the German Bight towards the Dogger Bank in May 1990 and annually from 1995 to 2017, we analysed the taxonomic and trait-based macrofauna long-term community variability and diversity. Taxonomic and trait-based diversity remained stable over time, while three different regimes were found, characterised by changes in taxonomic and trait-based community structure. Min/max autocorrelation factor analysis revealed the climatic variables sea surface temperature (SST) and North Atlantic Oscillation Index (NAOI), nitrite, and epibenthic abundance as most important environmental drivers for taxonomic and trait-based community changes.

Spatial heterogeneity in climate change effects decouples the long-term dynamics of wild reindeer populations in the high Arctic

The 'Moran effect' predicts that dynamics of populations of a species are synchronized over similar distances as their environmental drivers. Strong population synchrony reduces species viability, but spatial heterogeneity in density dependence, the environment, or its ecological responses may decouple dynamics in space, preventing extinctions. How such heterogeneity buffers impacts of global change on large-scale population dynamics is not well studied. Here, we show that spatially autocorrelated fluctuations in annual winter weather synchronize wild reindeer dynamics across high-Arctic Svalbard, while, paradoxically, spatial variation in winter climate trends contribute to diverging local population trajectories. Warmer summers have improved the carrying capacity and apparently led to increased total reindeer abundance. However, fluctuations in population size seem mainly driven by negative effects of stochastic winter rain-on-snow (ROS) events causing icing, with strongest effects at high densities. Count data for 10 reindeer populations 8-324 km apart suggested that density-dependent ROS effects contributed to synchrony in population dynamics, mainly through spatially autocorrelated mortality. By comparing one coastal and one 'continental' reindeer population over four decades, we show that locally contrasting abundance trends can arise from spatial differences in climate change and responses to weather. The coastal population experienced a larger increase in ROS, and a stronger density-dependent ROS effect on population growth rates, than the continental population. In contrast, the latter experienced stronger summer warming and showed the strongest positive response to summer temperatures. Accordingly, contrasting net effects of a recent climate regime shift-with increased ROS and harsher winters, yet higher summer temperatures and improved carrying capacity-led to negative and positive abundance trends in the coastal and continental population respectively. Thus, synchronized population fluctuations by climatic drivers can be buffered by spatial heterogeneity in the same drivers, as well as in the ecological responses, averaging out climate change effects at larger spatial scales.

The Effect of Insect Defoliations and Seed Production on the Dynamics of Radial Growth Synchrony among Scots Pine Pinus sylvestris L. Provenances

The intraspecific variation of climate–growth relationships observed on provenance trials results from among–provenance differences in phenotypic plasticity. Temporal variation in radial growth synchrony among provenances may be modified by adverse climatic/biotic conditions such as drought or insect defoliation. However, these factors can potentially diminish provenance–specific growth reactions and, consequently, prevent the identification of provenances with the highest adaptive potential. Thus, understanding the influence of major biotic conditions on provenance–specific climate–growth relationships seems to be important to anticipate climate change. To determine provenance–specific growth patterns in relation to climate conditions (drought), seed production (reproductive effort), and insect defoliation in a common garden of Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L.), we applied dendroecological techniques to time–series of tree–ring widths and basal area increments. The long–term records of seed production and insect outbreaks from the local Scots pine stands were used to explain the potential effect of biotic factors on the temporal dynamics of radial growth synchrony. During a period of favorable growth conditions, Scots pine provenances showed a decline in inter–provenance synchronicity in growth patterns, while during years affected by severe soil water deficit and insect defoliation, they manifested high uniformity in growth dynamics. The long–term trend in growth synchrony among P. sylvestris provenances depend on both abiotic and biotic environmental factors. This gains significance following an introduction of the appropriate selection of tree provenances for climate–smart forestry.

Teleconnection between phytoplankton dynamics in north temperate lakes and global climatic oscillation by time-frequency analysis

We are still facing the knowledge gap of how the water-quality extremes (i.e. phytoplankton blooms), their causes, severity or occurrence could be directly related to the climatic oscillation. Considering that the climatic and phytoplankton concentration time series are highly non-stationary, we applied the advanced time-frequency analysis - Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition (EEMD), Hilbert-Huang Spectrum (HHS) and Wavelet Analysis (WA) - to examine the variability of long term phytoplankton dynamics from 1986 to 2014 in five North Temperate Lakes (NTLs). These analysis techniques isolated five separate time series for the surface Chlorophyll a concentrations (CHL) of the five NTLs and a time series for the global climate oscillation (denoted by multivariate ENSO index, MEI), and showed that these time series generally operated at similar time scales. The long-term residual trends of decreasing were found in three lakes (i.e., BM, SP and TR lakes), which are the same to global climate dynamics (MEI). The wavelet analysis reveals strong coherency between MEI and CHL data sets for all lakes, with a periodicity of 64-months. Intuitive associations between the CHL and MEI data set showed that two types of ENSO (El Nino and La Nina) differ in their influences to CHL. Potential mechanisms relating the phytoplankton dynamics in NTLs to climatic oscillation (ENSO) were also discussed.

Synchrony is more than its top-down and climatic parts: interacting Moran effects on phytoplankton in British seas

Large-scale spatial synchrony is ubiquitous in ecology. We examined 56 years of data representing chlorophyll density in 26 areas in British seas monitored by the Continuous Plankton Recorder survey. We used wavelet methods to disaggregate synchronous fluctuations by timescale and determine that drivers of synchrony include both biotic and abiotic variables. We tested these drivers for statistical significance by comparison with spatially synchronous surrogate data. Identification of causes of synchrony is distinct from, and goes beyond, determining drivers of local population dynamics. We generated timescale-specific models, accounting for 61% of long-timescale (> 4yrs) synchrony in a chlorophyll density index, but only 3% of observed short-timescale (< 4yrs) synchrony. Thus synchrony and its causes are timescale-specific. The dominant source of long-timescale chlorophyll synchrony was closely related to sea surface temperature, through a climatic Moran effect, though likely via complex oceanographic mechanisms. The top-down action of Calanus finmarchicus predation enhances this environmental synchronising mechanism and interacts with it non-additively to produce more long-timescale synchrony than top-down and climatic drivers would produce independently. Our principal result is therefore a demonstration of interaction effects between Moran drivers of synchrony, a new mechanism for synchrony that may influence many ecosystems at large spatial scales.

The size of the annual bloom in phytoplankton can vary similarly from year to year in different parts of the same oceanic region, a phenomenon called spatial synchrony. The growth of phytoplankton near the ocean surface is the foundation of marine food webs, which include numerous commercially exploited species. And spatial synchrony in phytoplankton abundance time series can have consequences for the total production of marine ecosystems. Therefore we studied the spatial synchrony of fluctuations in green phytoplankton abundance in 26 areas in seas around the British Isles. Variation and synchrony can occur differently on long and short timescales. We used a novel wavelet-based approach to examine long- and short-timescale fluctuations separately, and we thereby show that slow synchronous fluctuations in phytoplankton can be explained by the effects of slow synchronous fluctuations in sea surface temperature and related oceanographic phenomena, and by the effects of synchronous fluctuations in a zooplankton predator. Crucially, these drivers reinforce one another in a super-additive way, the interaction constituting a new mechanism of synchrony. Future changes in the climate or changes in predation are likely to influence phytoplankton synchrony via this mechanism and hence may influence the aggregate productivity of British seas.

Proximate determinants of Taylor's law slopes

Taylor's law (TL), a commonly observed and applied pattern in ecology, describes variances of population densities as related to mean densities via log(variance) = log(a) + b*log(mean). Variations among datasets in the slope, b, have been associated with multiple factors of central importance in ecology, including strength of competitive interactions and demographic rates. But these associations are not transparent, and the relative importance of these and other factors for TL slope variation is poorly studied. TL is thus a ubiquitously used indicator in ecology, the understanding of which is still opaque. The goal of this study was to provide tools to help fill this gap in understanding by providing proximate determinants of TL slopes, statistical quantities that are correlated to TL slopes but are simpler than the slope itself and are more readily linked to ecological factors. Using numeric simulations and 82 multi-decadal population datasets, we here propose, test and apply two proximate statistical determinants of TL slopes which we argue can become key tools for understanding the nature and ecological causes of TL slope variation. We find that measures based on population skewness, coefficient of variation and synchrony are effective proximate determinants. We demonstrate their potential for application by using them to help explain covariation in slopes of spatial and temporal TL (two common types of TL). This study provides tools for understanding TL, and demonstrates their usefulness.

Temporal scale of environmental correlations affects ecological synchrony

Population densities of a species measured in different locations are often correlated over time, a phenomenon referred to as synchrony. Synchrony results from dispersal of individuals among locations and spatially correlated environmental variation, among other causes. Synchrony is often measured by a correlation coefficient. However, synchrony can vary with timescale. We demonstrate theoretically and experimentally that the timescale-specificity of environmental correlation affects the overall magnitude and timescale-specificity of synchrony, and that these effects are modified by population dispersal. Our laboratory experiments linked populations of flour beetles by changes in habitat size and dispersal. Linear filter theory, applied to a metapopulation model for the experimental system, predicted the observed timescale-specific effects. The timescales at which environmental covariation occurs can affect the population dynamics of species in fragmented habitats.

Metapopulation dynamics in a changing climate: Increasing spatial synchrony in weather conditions drives metapopulation synchrony of a butterfly inhabiting a fragmented landscape

Habitat fragmentation and climate change are both prominent manifestations of global change, but there is little knowledge on the specific mechanisms of how climate change may modify the effects of habitat fragmentation, for example, by altering dynamics of spatially structured populations. The long-term viability of metapopulations is dependent on independent dynamics of local populations, because it mitigates fluctuations in the size of the metapopulation as a whole. Metapopulation viability will be compromised if climate change increases spatial synchrony in weather conditions associated with population growth rates. We studied a recently reported increase in metapopulation synchrony of the Glanville fritillary butterfly (Melitaea cinxia) in the Finnish archipelago, to see if it could be explained by an increase in synchrony of weather conditions. For this, we used 23 years of butterfly survey data together with monthly weather records for the same period. We first examined the associations between population growth rates within different regions of the metapopulation and weather conditions during different life-history stages of the butterfly. We then examined the association between the trends in the synchrony of the weather conditions and the synchrony of the butterfly metapopulation dynamics. We found that precipitation from spring to late summer are associated with the M. cinxia per capita growth rate, with early summer conditions being most important. We further found that the increase in metapopulation synchrony is paralleled by an increase in the synchrony of weather conditions. Alternative explanations for spatial synchrony, such as increased dispersal or trophic interactions with a specialist parasitoid, did not show paralleled trends and are not supported. The climate driven increase in M. cinxia metapopulation synchrony suggests that climate change can increase extinction risk of spatially structured populations living in fragmented landscapes by altering their dynamics.

Rising synchrony controls western North American ecosystems

Along the western margin of North America, the winter expression of the North Pacific High (NPH) strongly influences interannual variability in coastal upwelling, storm track position, precipitation, and river discharge. Coherence among these factors induces covariance among physical and biological processes across adjacent marine and terrestrial ecosystems. Here, we show that over the past century the degree and spatial extent of this covariance (synchrony) has substantially increased, and is coincident with rising variance in the winter NPH. Furthermore, centuries-long blue oak (Quercus douglasii) growth chronologies sensitive to the winter NPH provide robust evidence that modern levels of synchrony are among the highest observed in the context of the last 250 years. These trends may ultimately be linked to changing impacts of the El Niño Southern Oscillation on midlatitude ecosystems of North America. Such a rise in synchrony may destabilize ecosystems, expose populations to higher risks of extinction, and is thus a concern given the broad biological relevance of winter climate to biological systems.

Thirty year ecosystem trajectories in a submerged marine cave under changing pressure regime

Marine caves are unique and vulnerable habitats exhibiting high biodiversity and heterogeneity, but threatened by multiple global and local disturbances. Marine caves, although widely distributed along the Mediterranean coast, suffer for the lack of quantitative data on their structure and function, which hinder their conservation status assessment. Thanks to the availability of a nearly 30-year-long series of data (1986-2013), we evaluated ecosystem change in the Bergeggi marine cave (Ligurian Sea, NW Mediterranean), a cave with a complex shape and high habitat heterogeneity. Non-taxonomic descriptors were adopted, namely growth forms (GF) and trophic guilds (TG), which are informative about ecosystem structure and functioning, respectively. The cave experienced a general trend of change during the last three decades, mainly due to the decline in the cover of sessile organisms (especially 3-dimensional forms) matched by an increase of turf and sediment, thus causing the structural and functional homogenization of the cave community. While change before 2004 had been attributed to climatic factors (especially to the summer heat waves of 1999 and 2003), the most important rate of change was observed between 2009 and 2013, coinciding with recent major beach nourishments and the extension of the neighbouring Vado Ligure harbour, thus providing evidences on the importance of local disturbances deriving from coastal interventions. Monitoring the status of cave ecosystems is urgently needed, and the use of effective indicators, such as the specific traits here adopted (morphology and feeding strategy), could provide effective tools to assist marine cave conservation.

A boundary current drives synchronous growth of marine fishes across tropical and temperate latitudes

Entrainment of growth patterns of multiple species to single climatic drivers can lower ecosystem resilience and increase the risk of species extinction during stressful climatic events. However, predictions of the effects of climate change on the productivity and dynamics of marine fishes are hampered by a lack of historical data on growth patterns. We use otolith biochronologies to show that the strength of a boundary current, modulated by the El Niño-Southern Oscillation, accounted for almost half of the shared variance in annual growth patterns of five of six species of tropical and temperate marine fishes across 23° of latitude (3000 km) in Western Australia. Stronger flow during La Niña years drove increased growth of five species, whereas weaker flow during El Niño years reduced growth. Our work is the first to link the growth patterns of multiple fishes with a single oceanographic/climate phenomenon at large spatial scales and across multiple climate zones, habitat types, trophic levels and depth ranges. Extreme La Niña and El Niño events are predicted to occur more frequently in the future and these are likely to have implications for these vulnerable ecosystems, such as a limited capacity of the marine taxa to recover from stressful climatic events.

Time-varying environmental control of phytoplankton in a changing estuarine system

Estuaries are among the most valuable aquatic systems by their services to human welfare. However, increasing human activities at the watershed along with the pressure of climate change are fostering the co-occurrence of multiple environmental drivers, and warn of potential negative impacts on estuaries resources. At present, no clear understanding of how coastal ecosystems will respond to the non-stationary effect of multiple drivers. Here we analysed the temporal interaction among multiple environmental drivers and their changing priority on shaping phytoplankton response in the Bahía Blanca Estuary, SW Atlantic Ocean. The interaction among environmental drivers and the number of significant direct and indirect effects on chlorophyll concentration increased over time in concurrence with enhanced anthropogenic stress, changing winter climate and wind patterns. Over the period 1978-1993, proximal variables such as nutrients, water temperature and salinity, showed a dominant effect on chlorophyll, whereas in more recent years (1993-2009) climate signals (SAM and ENSO) boosted indirect effects through its influence on precipitation, wind, water temperature and turbidity. Turbidity emerged as the dominant driver of chlorophyll while in recent years acted synergistically with the concentration of dissolved nitrogen. As a result, chlorophyll concentration showed a significant negative trend and a loss of seasonal peaks reflecting a pronounced reorganisation of the phytoplankton community. We stress the need to account for the changing priority of drivers to understand, and eventually forecast, biological responses under projected scenarios of global anthropogenic change.

Synchrony affects Taylor's law in theory and data

Taylor's law (TL) is a widely observed empirical pattern that relates the variances to the means of groups of nonnegative measurements via an approximate power law: variance _g ≈ a [Formula: see text] mean _g^b , where g indexes the group of measurements. When each group of measurements is distributed in space, the exponent b of this power law is conjectured to reflect aggregation in the spatial distribution. TL has had practical application in many areas since its initial demonstrations for the population density of spatially distributed species in population ecology. Another widely observed aspect of populations is spatial synchrony, which is the tendency for time series of population densities measured in different locations to be correlated through time. Recent studies showed that patterns of population synchrony are changing, possibly as a consequence of climate change. We use mathematical, numerical, and empirical approaches to show that synchrony affects the validity and parameters of TL. Greater synchrony typically decreases the exponent b of TL. Synchrony influenced TL in essentially all of our analytic, numerical, randomization-based, and empirical examples. Given the near ubiquity of synchrony in nature, it seems likely that synchrony influences the exponent of TL widely in ecologically and economically important systems.

The geography of spatial synchrony

Spatial synchrony, defined as correlated temporal fluctuations among populations, is a fundamental feature of population dynamics, but many aspects of synchrony remain poorly understood. Few studies have examined detailed geographical patterns of synchrony; instead most focus on how synchrony declines with increasing linear distance between locations, making the simplifying assumption that distance decay is isotropic. By synthesising and extending prior work, we show how geography of synchrony, a term which we use to refer to detailed spatial variation in patterns of synchrony, can be leveraged to understand ecological processes including identification of drivers of synchrony, a long-standing challenge. We focus on three main objectives: (1) showing conceptually and theoretically four mechanisms that can generate geographies of synchrony; (2) documenting complex and pronounced geographies of synchrony in two important study systems; and (3) demonstrating a variety of methods capable of revealing the geography of synchrony and, through it, underlying organism ecology. For example, we introduce a new type of network, the synchrony network, the structure of which provides ecological insight. By documenting the importance of geographies of synchrony, advancing conceptual frameworks, and demonstrating powerful methods, we aim to help elevate the geography of synchrony into a mainstream area of study and application.

Observational information on a temperate reef community helps understanding the marine climate and ecosystem shift of the 1980-90s

The dearth of long-time series hampers the measurement of the ecosystem change that followed the global marine climate shift of the 1980-90s. The sessile communities of Portofino Promontory reefs (Ligurian Sea, NW Mediterranean) have been discontinuously studied since the 1950s. Collating information from various sources, three periods of investigations have been distinguished: 1) 1950-70s; 2) 1980-90s; 3) 2000-10s. A cooler phase in time 1 was followed by a rapid warming in time 2, to stabilize at about 0.5°C higher in time 3. Human pressure grew impressively, especially after the establishment of a MPA in 1999. Multivariate analyses evidenced a major change of community composition in time 2. Some species disappeared or got rarer, many found refuge at depth, and among the newcomers there were recently introduced alien species. This study demonstrated the importance of descriptive historical data to understand magnitude and pattern of change in the long term evolution of marine ecosystems.