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Black BA, Pearl JK, Pearson CL, Pringle PT, Frank DC, Page MT, Buckley BM, Cook ER, Harley GL, King KJ, Hughes JF, Reynolds DJ, Sherrod BL. A multifault earthquake threat for the Seattle metropolitan region revealed by mass tree mortality. Sci Adv 2023; 9:eadh4973. [PMID: 37756412 PMCID: PMC10530078 DOI: 10.1126/sciadv.adh4973] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/08/2023] [Accepted: 08/23/2023] [Indexed: 09/29/2023]
Abstract
Compound earthquakes involving simultaneous ruptures along multiple faults often define a region's upper threshold of maximum magnitude. Yet, the potential for linked faulting remains poorly understood given the infrequency of these events in the historic era. Geological records provide longer perspectives, although temporal uncertainties are too broad to clearly pinpoint single multifault events. Here, we use dendrochronological dating and a cosmogenic radiation pulse to constrain the death dates of earthquake-killed trees along two adjacent fault zones near Seattle, Washington to within a 6-month period between the 923 and 924 CE growing seasons. Our narrow constraints conclusively show linked rupturing that occurred either as a single composite earthquake of estimated magnitude 7.8 or as a closely spaced double earthquake sequence with estimated magnitudes of 7.5 and 7.3. These scenarios, which are not recognized in current hazard models, increase the maximum earthquake size needed for seismic preparedness and engineering design within the Puget Sound region of >4 million residents.
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Affiliation(s)
- Bryan A. Black
- Laboratory of Tree Ring Research, University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ 85701, USA
| | - Jessie K. Pearl
- U.S. Geological Survey Earthquake Science Center, Seattle, WA 98195, USA
| | | | | | - David C. Frank
- Laboratory of Tree Ring Research, University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ 85701, USA
| | - Morgan T. Page
- U.S. Geological Survey Earthquake Science Center, Pasadena, CA 91106, USA
| | - Brendan M. Buckley
- Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, Columbia University, Palisades, NY 10964, USA
| | - Edward R. Cook
- Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, Columbia University, Palisades, NY 10964, USA
| | - Grant L. Harley
- Department of Earth and Spatial Sciences, University of Idaho, Moscow, ID 83843, USA
| | - Karen J. King
- Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, Columbia University, Palisades, NY 10964, USA
| | - Jonathan F. Hughes
- School of Land Use and Environmental Change, University of the Fraser Valley, Abbotsford, BC V2S 7M8, Canada
| | - David J. Reynolds
- Centre for Geography and Environmental Science, University of Exeter, Penryn Campus, Penryn, Cornwall TR10 9FE, UK
| | - Brian L. Sherrod
- U.S. Geological Survey Earthquake Science Center, Seattle, WA 98195, USA
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2
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Fibich P, Black BA, Doležal J, Harley GL, Maxwell JT, Altman J. Long-term tropical cyclones activity shapes forest structure and reduces tree species diversity of U.S. temperate forests. Sci Total Environ 2023; 884:163852. [PMID: 37142026 DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2023.163852] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/11/2023] [Revised: 04/26/2023] [Accepted: 04/26/2023] [Indexed: 05/06/2023]
Abstract
Increasing tropical cyclone (TC) pressure on temperate forests is inevitable under the recent global increase of the intensity and poleward migration of TCs. However, the long-term effects of TCs on large-scale structure and diversity of temperate forests remain unclear. Here, we aim to ascertain the legacy of TCs on forest structure and tree species richness by using structural equation models that consider several environmental gradients and use an extensive dataset containing >140,000 plots with >3 million trees from natural temperate forests across eastern United States impacted by TCs. We found that high TC activity (a combination of TC frequency and intensity) leads to a decrease in maximum tree sizes (height and diameter), an increase in tree density and basal area, and a decline in the number of tree species and recruits. We identified TC activity as the strongest predictor of forest structure and species richness in xeric (dry) forests, while it had a weaker impact on hydric (wet) forests. We highlight the sensitivity of forest structure and tree species richness to impacts of likely further increase of TC activity in interaction with climate extremes, especially drought. Our results show that increased TC activity leads to the homogenization of forest structure and reduced tree species richness in U.S. temperate forests. These findings suggest that further declines in tree species richness may be expected because of the projected increase of future levels of TC activity.
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Affiliation(s)
- Pavel Fibich
- Institute of Botany of the Czech Academy of Sciences, 25243 Průhonice, Czech Republic; Department of Botany, Faculty of Science, University of South Bohemia, České Budějovice, Czech Republic.
| | - Bryan A Black
- Laboratory of Tree-Ring Research, University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ 85721, USA
| | - Jiří Doležal
- Institute of Botany of the Czech Academy of Sciences, 25243 Průhonice, Czech Republic; Department of Botany, Faculty of Science, University of South Bohemia, České Budějovice, Czech Republic
| | - Grant L Harley
- Department of Earth and Spatial Sciences, University of Idaho, Moscow, ID 83843, USA
| | - Justin T Maxwell
- Department of Geography, Indiana University, Bloomington, IN 47408, USA
| | - Jan Altman
- Institute of Botany of the Czech Academy of Sciences, 25243 Průhonice, Czech Republic; Faculty of Forestry and Wood Sciences, Czech University of Life Sciences Prague, Kamýcká 129, 165 21 Prague 6 - Suchdol, Czech Republic
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3
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Stegner MA, Hadly EA, Barnosky AD, La Selle S, Sherrod B, Anderson RS, Redondo SA, Viteri MC, Weaver KL, Cundy AB, Gaca P, Rose NL, Yang H, Roberts SL, Hajdas I, Black BA, Spanbauer TL. The Searsville Lake Site (California, USA) as a candidate Global boundary Stratotype Section and Point for the Anthropocene series. Anthropocene Rev 2023; 10:116-145. [PMID: 37213212 PMCID: PMC10193828 DOI: 10.1177/20530196221144098] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 05/19/2023]
Abstract
Cores from Searsville Lake within Stanford University's Jasper Ridge Biological Preserve, California, USA, are examined to identify a potential GSSP for the Anthropocene: core JRBP2018-VC01B (944.5 cm-long) and tightly correlated JRBP2018-VC01A (852.5 cm-long). Spanning from 1900 CE ± 3 years to 2018 CE, a secure chronology resolved to the sub-annual level allows detailed exploration of the Holocene-Anthropocene transition. We identify the primary GSSP marker as first appearance of 239,240Pu (372-374 cm) in JRBP2018-VC01B and designate the GSSP depth as the distinct boundary between wet and dry season at 366 cm (6 cm above the first sample containing 239,240Pu) and corresponding to October-December 1948 CE. This is consistent with a lag of 1-2 years between ejection of 239,240Pu into the atmosphere and deposition. Auxiliary markers include: first appearance of 137Cs in 1958; late 20th-century decreases in δ15N; late 20th-century elevation in SCPs, Hg, Pb, and other heavy metals; and changes in abundance and presence of ostracod, algae, rotifer and protozoan microfossils. Fossil pollen document anthropogenic landscape changes related to logging and agriculture. As part of a major university, the Searsville site has long been used for research and education, serves users locally to internationally, and is protected yet accessible for future studies and communication about the Anthropocene. Plain Word Summary The Global boundary Stratotype Section and Point (GSSP) for the proposed Anthropocene Series/Epoch is suggested to lie in sediments accumulated over the last ~120 years in Searsville Lake, Woodside, California, USA. The site fulfills all of the ideal criteria for defining and placing a GSSP. In addition, the Searsville site is particularly appropriate to mark the onset of the Anthropocene, because it was anthropogenic activities-the damming of a watershed-that created a geologic record that now preserves the very signals that can be used to recognize the Anthropocene worldwide.
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4
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Campana SE, Smoliński S, Black BA, Morrongiello JR, Alexandroff SJ, Andersson C, Bogstad B, Butler PG, Denechaud C, Frank DC, Geffen AJ, Godiksen JA, Grønkjaer P, Hjörleifsson E, Jónsdóttir IG, Meekan M, Mette M, Tanner SE, van der Sleen P, von Leesen G. Growth portfolios buffer climate-linked environmental change in marine systems. Ecology 2023; 104:e3918. [PMID: 36342309 DOI: 10.1002/ecy.3918] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/10/2022] [Revised: 10/04/2022] [Accepted: 10/07/2022] [Indexed: 11/09/2022]
Abstract
Large-scale, climate-induced synchrony in the productivity of fish populations is becoming more pronounced in the world's oceans. As synchrony increases, a population's "portfolio" of responses can be diminished, in turn reducing its resilience to strong perturbation. Here we argue that the costs and benefits of trait synchronization, such as the expression of growth rate, are context dependent. Contrary to prevailing views, synchrony among individuals could actually be beneficial for populations if growth synchrony increases during favorable conditions, and then declines under poor conditions when a broader portfolio of responses could be useful. Importantly, growth synchrony among individuals within populations has seldom been measured, despite well-documented evidence of synchrony across populations. Here, we used century-scale time series of annual otolith growth to test for changes in growth synchronization among individuals within multiple populations of a marine keystone species (Atlantic cod, Gadus morhua). On the basis of 74,662 annual growth increments recorded in 13,749 otoliths, we detected a rising conformity in long-term growth rates within five northeast Atlantic cod populations in response to both favorable growth conditions and a large-scale, multidecadal mode of climate variability similar to the East Atlantic Pattern. The within-population synchrony was distinct from the across-population synchrony commonly reported for large-scale environmental drivers. Climate-linked, among-individual growth synchrony was also identified in other Northeast Atlantic pelagic, deep-sea and bivalve species. We hypothesize that growth synchrony in good years and growth asynchrony in poorer years reflects adaptive trait optimization and bet hedging, respectively, that could confer an unexpected, but pervasive and stabilizing, impact on marine population productivity in response to large-scale environmental change.
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Affiliation(s)
- Steven E Campana
- Life and Environmental Sciences, University of Iceland, Reykjavik, Iceland
| | - Szymon Smoliński
- Institute of Marine Research, Bergen, Norway.,National Marine Fisheries Research Institute, Gdynia, Poland
| | - Bryan A Black
- Laboratory of Tree-Ring Research, University of Arizona, Tuscon, Arizona, USA
| | - John R Morrongiello
- School of BioSciences, University of Melbourne, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia
| | - Stella J Alexandroff
- Centre for Geography and Environmental Sciences, University of Exeter, Penryn, UK
| | - Carin Andersson
- NORCE Norwegian Research Centre, Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research, Bergen, Norway
| | | | - Paul G Butler
- Centre for Geography and Environmental Sciences, University of Exeter, Penryn, UK
| | - Côme Denechaud
- Institute of Marine Research, Bergen, Norway.,Department of Biological Sciences, University of Bergen, Bergen, Norway
| | - David C Frank
- Laboratory of Tree-Ring Research, University of Arizona, Tuscon, Arizona, USA
| | - Audrey J Geffen
- Department of Biological Sciences, University of Bergen, Bergen, Norway
| | | | - Peter Grønkjaer
- Aquatic Biology, Department of Biology, Aarhus University, Aarhus, Denmark
| | | | | | - Mark Meekan
- Australian Institute of Marine Science, Perth, Western Australia, Australia
| | - Madelyn Mette
- U.S. Geological Survey, St. Petersburg Coastal and Marine Science Center, St. Petersburg, Florida, USA
| | - Susanne E Tanner
- Marine and Environmental Sciences Centre and Department of Animal Biology, Faculty of Sciences, University of Lisbon, Lisbon, Portugal
| | - Peter van der Sleen
- Wildlife Ecology and Conservation Group and Forest Ecology and Management Group, Wageningen University and Research Centre, Wageningen, The Netherlands
| | - Gotje von Leesen
- Life and Environmental Sciences, University of Iceland, Reykjavik, Iceland.,Aquatic Biology, Department of Biology, Aarhus University, Aarhus, Denmark
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5
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Shi H, Jin FF, Wills RCJ, Jacox MG, Amaya DJ, Black BA, Rykaczewski RR, Bograd SJ, García-Reyes M, Sydeman WJ. Global decline in ocean memory over the 21st century. Sci Adv 2022; 8:eabm3468. [PMID: 35522743 DOI: 10.1126/sciadv.abm3468] [Citation(s) in RCA: 5] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 06/14/2023]
Abstract
Ocean memory, the persistence of ocean conditions, is a major source of predictability in the climate system beyond weather time scales. We show that ocean memory, as measured by the year-to-year persistence of sea surface temperature anomalies, is projected to steadily decline in the coming decades over much of the globe. This global decline in ocean memory is predominantly driven by shoaling of the upper-ocean mixed layer depth in response to global surface warming, while thermodynamic and dynamic feedbacks can contribute substantially regionally. As the mixed layer depth shoals, stochastic forcing becomes more effective in driving sea surface temperature anomalies, increasing high-frequency noise at the expense of persistent signals. Reduced ocean memory results in shorter lead times of skillful persistence-based predictions of sea surface thermal conditions, which may present previously unknown challenges for predicting climate extremes and managing marine biological resources under climate change.
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Affiliation(s)
- Hui Shi
- Farallon Institute, Petaluma, CA 94952, USA
| | - Fei-Fei Jin
- Department of Atmospheric Sciences, University of Hawaii, Honolulu, HI 96822, USA
| | - Robert C J Wills
- Department of Atmospheric Sciences, University of Washington, Seattle, WA 98195, USA
| | - Michael G Jacox
- Environmental Research Division, NOAA Southwest Fisheries Science Center, Monterey, CA 93940, USA
- Physical Sciences Laboratory, NOAA Earth System Research Laboratories, Boulder, CO 80305, USA
| | - Dillon J Amaya
- Physical Sciences Laboratory, NOAA Earth System Research Laboratories, Boulder, CO 80305, USA
| | - Bryan A Black
- Laboratory of Tree-Ring Research, University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ 85721, USA
| | - Ryan R Rykaczewski
- Ecosystem Sciences Division, NOAA Pacific Islands Fisheries Science Center, Honolulu, HI 96818, USA
- Department of Oceanography, University of Hawaii, Honolulu, HI 96822, USA
| | - Steven J Bograd
- Environmental Research Division, NOAA Southwest Fisheries Science Center, Monterey, CA 93940, USA
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6
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Klesse S, DeRose RJ, Babst F, Black BA, Anderegg LDL, Axelson J, Ettinger A, Griesbauer H, Guiterman CH, Harley G, Harvey JE, Lo YH, Lynch AM, O'Connor C, Restaino C, Sauchyn D, Shaw JD, Smith DJ, Wood L, Villanueva-Díaz J, Evans MEK. Continental-scale tree-ring-based projection of Douglas-fir growth: Testing the limits of space-for-time substitution. Glob Chang Biol 2020; 26:5146-5163. [PMID: 32433807 DOI: 10.1111/gcb.15170] [Citation(s) in RCA: 24] [Impact Index Per Article: 6.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/17/2019] [Revised: 04/02/2020] [Accepted: 04/25/2020] [Indexed: 06/11/2023]
Abstract
A central challenge in global change research is the projection of the future behavior of a system based upon past observations. Tree-ring data have been used increasingly over the last decade to project tree growth and forest ecosystem vulnerability under future climate conditions. But how can the response of tree growth to past climate variation predict the future, when the future does not look like the past? Space-for-time substitution (SFTS) is one way to overcome the problem of extrapolation: the response at a given location in a warmer future is assumed to follow the response at a warmer location today. Here we evaluated an SFTS approach to projecting future growth of Douglas-fir (Pseudotsuga menziesii), a species that occupies an exceptionally large environmental space in North America. We fit a hierarchical mixed-effects model to capture ring-width variability in response to spatial and temporal variation in climate. We found opposing gradients for productivity and climate sensitivity with highest growth rates and weakest response to interannual climate variation in the mesic coastal part of Douglas-fir's range; narrower rings and stronger climate sensitivity occurred across the semi-arid interior. Ring-width response to spatial versus temporal temperature variation was opposite in sign, suggesting that spatial variation in productivity, caused by local adaptation and other slow processes, cannot be used to anticipate changes in productivity caused by rapid climate change. We thus substituted only climate sensitivities when projecting future tree growth. Growth declines were projected across much of Douglas-fir's distribution, with largest relative decreases in the semiarid U.S. Interior West and smallest in the mesic Pacific Northwest. We further highlight the strengths of mixed-effects modeling for reviving a conceptual cornerstone of dendroecology, Cook's 1987 aggregate growth model, and the great potential to use tree-ring networks and results as a calibration target for next-generation vegetation models.
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Affiliation(s)
- Stefan Klesse
- Laboratory of Tree-Ring Research, University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ, USA
- Swiss Federal Research Institute WSL, Swiss Forest Protection, Birmensdorf, Switzerland
| | - Robert Justin DeRose
- U.S. Forest Service, Rocky Mountain Research Station, Forest Inventory and Analysis, Ogden, UT, USA
- Department Wildland Resources and Ecology Center, Utah State University, Logan, UT, USA
| | - Flurin Babst
- Laboratory of Tree-Ring Research, University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ, USA
- Swiss Federal Research Institute WSL, Swiss Forest Protection, Birmensdorf, Switzerland
- Department of Ecology, W. Szafer Institute of Botany, Polish Academy of Sciences, Krakow, Poland
| | - Bryan A Black
- Laboratory of Tree-Ring Research, University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ, USA
| | - Leander D L Anderegg
- Department of Integrative Biology, University of California, Berkeley, CA, USA
- Department of Global Ecology, Carnegie Institution for Science, Stanford, CA, USA
| | - Jodi Axelson
- Department of Environmental Science, Policy, and Management, University of California, Berkeley, CA, USA
| | | | - Hardy Griesbauer
- Ministry of Forests, Lands, Natural Resource Operations and Rural Development, Prince George, BC, Canada
| | | | - Grant Harley
- Department of Geography, University of Idaho, Moscow, ID, USA
| | - Jill E Harvey
- Natural Resources Canada, Canadian Forest Service, Edmonton, AB, Canada
| | - Yueh-Hsin Lo
- Department of Science, Universidad Publica de Navarra, Pamplona, Spain
| | - Ann M Lynch
- Laboratory of Tree-Ring Research, University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ, USA
- U.S. Forest Service, Rocky Mountain Research Station, Tucson, AZ, USA
| | | | | | - Dave Sauchyn
- Prairie Adaptation Research Collaborative, University of Regina, Regina, SK, Canada
| | - John D Shaw
- U.S. Forest Service, Rocky Mountain Research Station, Forest Inventory and Analysis, Ogden, UT, USA
| | - Dan J Smith
- Department of Geography, University of Victoria, Victoria, BC, Canada
| | - Lisa Wood
- Ecosystem Science and Management, University of Northern British Columbia, Prince George, BC, Canada
| | - Jose Villanueva-Díaz
- Instituto Nacional de Investigaciones Forestales y Agropecuarias, CENID-RASPA, Gomez Palacio, Mexico
| | - Margaret E K Evans
- Laboratory of Tree-Ring Research, University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ, USA
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7
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Andrade H, van der Sleen P, Black BA, Godiksen JA, Locke WL, Carroll ML, Ambrose WG, Geffen A. Ontogenetic movements of cod in Arctic fjords and the Barents Sea as revealed by otolith microchemistry. Polar Biol 2020. [DOI: 10.1007/s00300-020-02642-1] [Citation(s) in RCA: 6] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 02/04/2023]
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8
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Black BA, Andersson C, Butler PG, Carroll ML, DeLong KL, Reynolds DJ, Schöne BR, Scourse J, van der Sleen P, Wanamaker AD, Witbaard R. The revolution of crossdating in marine palaeoecology and palaeoclimatology. Biol Lett 2019; 15:20180665. [PMID: 30958223 DOI: 10.1098/rsbl.2018.0665] [Citation(s) in RCA: 7] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.4] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/12/2022] Open
Abstract
Over the past century, the dendrochronology technique of crossdating has been widely used to generate a global network of tree-ring chronologies that serves as a leading indicator of environmental variability and change. Only recently, however, has this same approach been applied to growth increments in calcified structures of bivalves, fish and corals in the world's oceans. As in trees, these crossdated marine chronologies are well replicated, annually resolved and absolutely dated, providing uninterrupted multi-decadal to millennial histories of ocean palaeoclimatic and palaeoecological processes. Moreover, they span an extensive geographical range, multiple trophic levels, habitats and functional types, and can be readily integrated with observational physical or biological records. Increment width is the most commonly measured parameter and reflects growth or productivity, though isotopic and elemental composition capture complementary aspects of environmental variability. As such, crossdated marine chronologies constitute powerful observational templates to establish climate-biology relationships, test hypotheses of ecosystem functioning, conduct multi-proxy reconstructions, provide constraints for numerical climate models, and evaluate the precise timing and nature of ocean-atmosphere interactions. These 'present-past-future' perspectives provide new insights into the mechanisms and feedbacks between the atmosphere and marine systems while providing indicators relevant to ecosystem-based approaches of fisheries management.
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Affiliation(s)
- Bryan A Black
- 1 Laboratory of Tree-Ring Research, University of Arizona , 1215 E Lowell St, Tucson, AZ 85721 , USA
| | - Carin Andersson
- 2 NORCE Norwegian Research Centre, Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research , Jahnebakken 5, 5007 Bergen , Norway
| | - Paul G Butler
- 3 CGES, College of Life and Environmental Sciences, University of Exeter , Penryn Campus, Treliever Road, Penryn, Cornwall TR10 9EZ , UK
| | - Michael L Carroll
- 4 Akvaplan-niva AS, Fram - High North Research Centre for Climate and the Environment , PO Box 6606 Langnes, 9296 Tromsø , Norway
| | - Kristine L DeLong
- 5 Department of Geography & Anthropology and the Coastal Studies institute, Louisiana State University , 227 Howe-Russell Geoscience Complex E326, Baton Rouge, LA 70803 , USA
| | - David J Reynolds
- 6 School of Earth and Ocean Sciences, Cardiff University , Cardiff CF10 3AT , UK
| | - Bernd R Schöne
- 7 Institute of Geosciences, University of Mainz , Johann-Joachim-Becher-Weg 21, 55128 Mainz , Germany
| | - James Scourse
- 8 CGES, College of Life and Environmental Sciences, University of Exeter , Penryn Campus, Treliever Road, Penryn, Cornwall TR10 9EZ , UK
| | - Peter van der Sleen
- 9 Department of Wetland Ecology, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology , Josefstrasse 1, Rastatt 76437 , Germany
| | - Alan D Wanamaker
- 10 Department of Geological and Atmospheric Sciences, Iowa State University , 2237 Osborn Drive, Ames, IA 50011 , USA
| | - Rob Witbaard
- 11 Department of Estuarine and Delta Systems, Royal Netherlands Institute for Sea Research (NIOZ) , PO Box 140, 4400 AC Yerseke , the Netherlands
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9
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Black BA, van der Sleen P, Di Lorenzo E, Griffin D, Sydeman WJ, Dunham JB, Rykaczewski RR, García-Reyes M, Safeeq M, Arismendi I, Bograd SJ. Rising synchrony controls western North American ecosystems. Glob Chang Biol 2018; 24:2305-2314. [PMID: 29575413 DOI: 10.1111/gcb.14128] [Citation(s) in RCA: 24] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/22/2017] [Revised: 01/16/2018] [Accepted: 02/11/2018] [Indexed: 06/08/2023]
Abstract
Along the western margin of North America, the winter expression of the North Pacific High (NPH) strongly influences interannual variability in coastal upwelling, storm track position, precipitation, and river discharge. Coherence among these factors induces covariance among physical and biological processes across adjacent marine and terrestrial ecosystems. Here, we show that over the past century the degree and spatial extent of this covariance (synchrony) has substantially increased, and is coincident with rising variance in the winter NPH. Furthermore, centuries-long blue oak (Quercus douglasii) growth chronologies sensitive to the winter NPH provide robust evidence that modern levels of synchrony are among the highest observed in the context of the last 250 years. These trends may ultimately be linked to changing impacts of the El Niño Southern Oscillation on midlatitude ecosystems of North America. Such a rise in synchrony may destabilize ecosystems, expose populations to higher risks of extinction, and is thus a concern given the broad biological relevance of winter climate to biological systems.
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Affiliation(s)
- Bryan A Black
- University of Texas Marine Science Institute, Port Aransas, TX, USA
| | | | - Emanuele Di Lorenzo
- School of Earth & Atmospheric Sciences, Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, GA, USA
| | - Daniel Griffin
- Department of Geography, Environment & Society, University of Minnesota, Minneapolis, MN, USA
| | - William J Sydeman
- Farallon Institute for Advanced Ecosystem Research, Petaluma, CA, USA
| | - Jason B Dunham
- U.S. Geological Survey, Forest and Rangeland Ecosystem Science Center, Corvallis, OR, USA
| | - Ryan R Rykaczewski
- Department of Biological Sciences and Marine Science Program, University of South Carolina, Columbia, SC, USA
| | | | - Mohammad Safeeq
- Sierra Nevada Research Institute, University of California, Merced, CA, USA
- Pacific Southwest Research Station, USDA Forest Service, Fresno, CA, USA
| | - Ivan Arismendi
- Department of Fisheries and Wildlife, Oregon State University, Corvallis, OR, USA
| | - Steven J Bograd
- Environmental Research Division, Southwest Fisheries Science Center, NOAA, Monterey, CA, USA
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10
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Ong JJL, Rountrey AN, Black BA, Nguyen HM, Coulson PG, Newman SJ, Wakefield CB, Meeuwig JJ, Meekan MG. A boundary current drives synchronous growth of marine fishes across tropical and temperate latitudes. Glob Chang Biol 2018; 24:1894-1903. [PMID: 29411925 DOI: 10.1111/gcb.14083] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/28/2017] [Revised: 11/06/2017] [Accepted: 01/16/2018] [Indexed: 06/08/2023]
Abstract
Entrainment of growth patterns of multiple species to single climatic drivers can lower ecosystem resilience and increase the risk of species extinction during stressful climatic events. However, predictions of the effects of climate change on the productivity and dynamics of marine fishes are hampered by a lack of historical data on growth patterns. We use otolith biochronologies to show that the strength of a boundary current, modulated by the El Niño-Southern Oscillation, accounted for almost half of the shared variance in annual growth patterns of five of six species of tropical and temperate marine fishes across 23° of latitude (3000 km) in Western Australia. Stronger flow during La Niña years drove increased growth of five species, whereas weaker flow during El Niño years reduced growth. Our work is the first to link the growth patterns of multiple fishes with a single oceanographic/climate phenomenon at large spatial scales and across multiple climate zones, habitat types, trophic levels and depth ranges. Extreme La Niña and El Niño events are predicted to occur more frequently in the future and these are likely to have implications for these vulnerable ecosystems, such as a limited capacity of the marine taxa to recover from stressful climatic events.
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Affiliation(s)
- Joyce J L Ong
- School of Biological Sciences and the Centre for Marine Futures, University of Western Australia, Crawley, WA, Australia
- Australian Institute of Marine Science, Indian Ocean Marine Research Centre, University of Western Australia, Crawley, WA, Australia
- Department of Ecology, Evolution, and Natural Resources, Rutgers University, New Brunswick, NJ, USA
| | - Adam N Rountrey
- Museum of Paleontology, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI, USA
| | - Bryan A Black
- Marine Science Institute, University of Texas, Port Aransas, TX, USA
| | - Hoang Minh Nguyen
- Marine Science Institute, University of Texas, Port Aransas, TX, USA
| | - Peter G Coulson
- Center for Fish and Fisheries Research, School of Veterinary and Life Sciences, Murdoch University, Murdoch, WA, Australia
| | - Stephen J Newman
- Western Australian Fisheries and Marine Research Laboratories, Department of Primary Industries and Regional Development, Government of Western Australia, North Beach, WA, Australia
| | - Corey B Wakefield
- Western Australian Fisheries and Marine Research Laboratories, Department of Primary Industries and Regional Development, Government of Western Australia, North Beach, WA, Australia
| | - Jessica J Meeuwig
- School of Biological Sciences and the Centre for Marine Futures, University of Western Australia, Crawley, WA, Australia
| | - Mark G Meekan
- Australian Institute of Marine Science, Indian Ocean Marine Research Centre, University of Western Australia, Crawley, WA, Australia
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Peharda M, Vilibić I, Black BA, Markulin K, Dunić N, Džoić T, Mihanović H, Gačić M, Puljas S, Waldman R. Using bivalve chronologies for quantifying environmental drivers in a semi-enclosed temperate sea. Sci Rep 2018; 8:5559. [PMID: 29615699 PMCID: PMC5882960 DOI: 10.1038/s41598-018-23773-w] [Citation(s) in RCA: 18] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/07/2017] [Accepted: 03/20/2018] [Indexed: 11/29/2022] Open
Abstract
Annual growth increments formed in bivalve shells are increasingly used as proxies of environmental variability and change in marine ecosystems, especially at higher latitudes. Here, we document that well-replicated and exactly dated chronologies can also be developed to capture oceanographic processes in temperate and semi-enclosed seas, such as the Mediterranean. A chronology is constructed for Glycymeris pilosa from a shallow embayment of the northern Adriatic and extends from 1979 to 2016. The chronology significantly (p < 0.05) and positively correlates to winter sea surface temperatures, but negatively correlates to summer temperatures, which suggests that extreme winter lows and extreme summer highs may be limiting to growth. However, the strongest and most consistent relationships are negative correlations with an index of the Adriatic-Ionian Bimodal Oscillating System (BiOS) for which positive values indicate the inflow of the ultraoligotrophic Eastern Mediterranean waters to the Adriatic. In contrast, the substantial freshwater flows that discharge into the Adriatic do not correlate to the bivalve chronology, emphasizing the importance of remote oceanographic processes to growth at this highly coastal site. Overall, this study underscores the potential of bivalve chronologies to capture biologically relevant, local- to regional-scale patterns of ocean circulation in mid-latitude, temperate systems.
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Affiliation(s)
- M Peharda
- Institute of Oceanography and Fisheries, Split, Croatia
| | - I Vilibić
- Institute of Oceanography and Fisheries, Split, Croatia.
| | - B A Black
- Marine Science Institute, University of Texas at Austin, Port Aransas, TX, USA
| | - K Markulin
- Institute of Oceanography and Fisheries, Split, Croatia
| | - N Dunić
- Institute of Oceanography and Fisheries, Split, Croatia
| | - T Džoić
- Institute of Oceanography and Fisheries, Split, Croatia
| | - H Mihanović
- Institute of Oceanography and Fisheries, Split, Croatia
| | - M Gačić
- Instituto Nazionale di Oceanografia e di Geofisica Sperimentale, Trieste, Italy
| | - S Puljas
- Faculty of Science, University of Split, Split, Croatia
| | - R Waldman
- Centre National de Recherches Météorologiques, Météo-France, Toulouse, France
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Peharda M, Black BA, Purroy A, Mihanović H. The bivalve Glycymeris pilosa as a multidecadal environmental archive for the Adriatic and Mediterranean Seas. Mar Environ Res 2016; 119:79-87. [PMID: 27254745 DOI: 10.1016/j.marenvres.2016.05.022] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.4] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/01/2016] [Revised: 05/19/2016] [Accepted: 05/23/2016] [Indexed: 06/05/2023]
Abstract
We evaluated the potential of Glycymeris pilosa as an environmental indicator for the Mediterranean region by applying sclerochronological techniques on a sample set collected from Pašman Channel in the middle Adriatic Sea. Maximal longevity of analyzed shells was 69 years. Growth increments in acetate peels of the hinge region had clear boundaries, and there was a strongly synchronous signal in growth-increment width among individuals. The final, replicated chronology spanned 1969 to 2013. Shell growth negatively correlated with local summer sea temperatures and positively with November precipitation. High correlation between shell growth and circulation patterns in the northern Ionian was also observed, with slower growth occurring during cyclonic regimes. Given its broad distribution in the region and the ability to crossdate, generate annually-resolved chronologies, and of a length that substantially overlaps with observational records, G. pilosa has considerable potential to test hypotheses relating to environmental variability and biological response in the Mediterranean.
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Affiliation(s)
- Melita Peharda
- Institute of Oceanography and Fisheries, Šetalište Ivana Meštrovića 63, 21000 Split, Croatia; Marine Science Institute, University of Texas at Austin, 750 Channel View Drive, Port Aransas, TX 78373, USA.
| | - Bryan A Black
- Marine Science Institute, University of Texas at Austin, 750 Channel View Drive, Port Aransas, TX 78373, USA.
| | - Ariadna Purroy
- Institute of Oceanography and Fisheries, Šetalište Ivana Meštrovića 63, 21000 Split, Croatia.
| | - Hrvoje Mihanović
- Institute of Oceanography and Fisheries, Šetalište Ivana Meštrovića 63, 21000 Split, Croatia.
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13
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Black BA, Griffin D, van der Sleen P, Wanamaker AD, Speer JH, Frank DC, Stahle DW, Pederson N, Copenheaver CA, Trouet V, Griffin S, Gillanders BM. The value of crossdating to retain high-frequency variability, climate signals, and extreme events in environmental proxies. Glob Chang Biol 2016; 22:2582-2595. [PMID: 26910504 DOI: 10.1111/gcb.13256] [Citation(s) in RCA: 11] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.4] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/04/2015] [Accepted: 01/15/2016] [Indexed: 06/05/2023]
Abstract
High-resolution biogenic and geologic proxies in which one increment or layer is formed per year are crucial to describing natural ranges of environmental variability in Earth's physical and biological systems. However, dating controls are necessary to ensure temporal precision and accuracy; simple counts cannot ensure that all layers are placed correctly in time. Originally developed for tree-ring data, crossdating is the only such procedure that ensures all increments have been assigned the correct calendar year of formation. Here, we use growth-increment data from two tree species, two marine bivalve species, and a marine fish species to illustrate sensitivity of environmental signals to modest dating error rates. When falsely added or missed increments are induced at one and five percent rates, errors propagate back through time and eliminate high-frequency variability, climate signals, and evidence of extreme events while incorrectly dating and distorting major disturbances or other low-frequency processes. Our consecutive Monte Carlo experiments show that inaccuracies begin to accumulate in as little as two decades and can remove all but decadal-scale processes after as little as two centuries. Real-world scenarios may have even greater consequence in the absence of crossdating. Given this sensitivity to signal loss, the fundamental tenets of crossdating must be applied to fully resolve environmental signals, a point we underscore as the frontiers of growth-increment analysis continue to expand into tropical, freshwater, and marine environments.
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Affiliation(s)
- Bryan A Black
- Marine Science Institute, University of Texas at Austin, 750 Channel View Drive, Port Aransas, TX, 78373, USA
| | - Daniel Griffin
- Department of Geography, Environment, and Society, University of Minnesota, Geography Room 414, Minneapolis, MN, 55455, USA
| | - Peter van der Sleen
- Marine Science Institute, University of Texas at Austin, 750 Channel View Drive, Port Aransas, TX, 78373, USA
| | - Alan D Wanamaker
- Department of Geological and Atmospheric Sciences, Iowa State University, 12 Science I, Ames, IA, 50011, USA
| | - James H Speer
- Department of Earth and Environmental Systems, Indiana State University, Science 159E, Terre Haute, IN, 47809, USA
| | - David C Frank
- Swiss Federal Research Institute WSL, Zürcherstrasse 111, CH-8903, Birmensdorf, Switzerland
- Oeschger Centre for Climate Change Research, University of Bern, Zähringerstrasse 25, CH-3012, Bern, Switzerland
| | - David W Stahle
- Department of Geosciences, University of Arkansas, 216 Ozark Hall, Fayetteville, AR, 72701, USA
| | - Neil Pederson
- Harvard Forest, 324 N Main St., Petersham, MA, 10366, USA
| | - Carolyn A Copenheaver
- Department of Forest Resources and Environmental Conservation, Virginia Tech, 228C Cheatham Hall, Blacksburg, VA, 24061, USA
| | - Valerie Trouet
- Laboratory of Tree-Ring Research, University of Arizona, 1215 E. Lowell St., Tucson, AZ, 85721, USA
| | - Shelly Griffin
- Department of Geological and Atmospheric Sciences, Iowa State University, 12 Science I, Ames, IA, 50011, USA
| | - Bronwyn M Gillanders
- School of Biological Sciences & Environment Institute, University of Adelaide, Darling Building, Adelaide, SA, 5005, Australia
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Matta ME, Helser TE, Black BA. Otolith biochronologies reveal latitudinal differences in growth of Bering Sea yellowfin sole Limanda aspera. Polar Biol 2016. [DOI: 10.1007/s00300-016-1917-y] [Citation(s) in RCA: 9] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.1] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 10/22/2022]
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Black BA, Dunham JB, Blundon BW, Raggon MF, Zima D. Spatial variability in growth-increment chronologies of long-lived freshwater mussels: Implications for climate impacts and reconstructions. Écoscience 2015. [DOI: 10.2980/17-3-3353] [Citation(s) in RCA: 18] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/06/2022]
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Black BA, Colbert JJ, Pederson N. Relationships between radial growth rates and lifespan within North American tree species. Écoscience 2015. [DOI: 10.2980/15-3-3149] [Citation(s) in RCA: 66] [Impact Index Per Article: 7.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/06/2022]
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Karnauskas M, Schirripa MJ, Craig JK, Cook GS, Kelble CR, Agar JJ, Black BA, Enfield DB, Lindo-Atichati D, Muhling BA, Purcell KM, Richards PM, Wang C. Evidence of climate-driven ecosystem reorganization in the Gulf of Mexico. Glob Chang Biol 2015; 21:2554-2568. [PMID: 25778777 DOI: 10.1111/gcb.12894] [Citation(s) in RCA: 7] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/19/2014] [Revised: 01/09/2015] [Accepted: 02/05/2015] [Indexed: 06/04/2023]
Abstract
The Gulf of Mexico is one of the most ecologically and economically valuable marine ecosystems in the world and is affected by a variety of natural and anthropogenic phenomena including climate, hurricanes, coastal development, agricultural runoff, oil spills, and fishing. These complex and interacting stressors, together with the highly dynamic nature of this ecosystem, present challenges for the effective management of its resources. We analyze a compilation of over 100 indicators representing physical, biological, and economic aspects of the Gulf of Mexico and find that an ecosystem-wide reorganization occurred in the mid-1990s. Further analysis of fishery landings composition data indicates a major shift in the late 1970s coincident with the advent of US national fisheries management policy, as well as significant shifts in the mid-1960s and the mid-1990s. These latter shifts are aligned temporally with changes in a major climate mode in the Atlantic Ocean: the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO). We provide an explanation for how the AMO may drive physical changes in the Gulf of Mexico, thus altering higher-level ecosystem dynamics. The hypotheses presented here should provide focus for further targeted studies, particularly in regard to whether and how management should adjust to different climate regimes or states of nature. Our study highlights the challenges in understanding the effects of climatic drivers against a background of multiple anthropogenic pressures, particularly in a system where these forces interact in complex and nonlinear ways.
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Affiliation(s)
- Mandy Karnauskas
- Southeast Fisheries Science Center, National Marine Fisheries Service, 75 Virginia Beach Drive, Miami, FL, 33149, USA
| | - Michael J Schirripa
- Southeast Fisheries Science Center, National Marine Fisheries Service, 75 Virginia Beach Drive, Miami, FL, 33149, USA
| | - J K Craig
- Southeast Fisheries Science Center, National Marine Fisheries Service, 101 Pivers Island Road, Beaufort, NC, 28516, USA
| | - Geoffrey S Cook
- Atlantic Meteorological and Oceanographic Laboratory, Office of Oceanic and Atmospheric Research, 4301 Rickenbacker Causeway, Miami, FL, 33149, USA
- Rosenstiel School of Marine and Atmospheric Science, Cooperative Institute for Marine and Atmospheric Studies, University of Miami, 4600 Rickenbacker Causeway, Miami, FL, 33149, USA
| | - Christopher R Kelble
- Atlantic Meteorological and Oceanographic Laboratory, Office of Oceanic and Atmospheric Research, 4301 Rickenbacker Causeway, Miami, FL, 33149, USA
| | - Juan J Agar
- Southeast Fisheries Science Center, National Marine Fisheries Service, 75 Virginia Beach Drive, Miami, FL, 33149, USA
| | - Bryan A Black
- Marine Science Institute, University of Texas, 750 Channel View Drive, Port Aransas, TX, 78373, USA
| | - David B Enfield
- Atlantic Meteorological and Oceanographic Laboratory, Office of Oceanic and Atmospheric Research, 4301 Rickenbacker Causeway, Miami, FL, 33149, USA
- Rosenstiel School of Marine and Atmospheric Science, Cooperative Institute for Marine and Atmospheric Studies, University of Miami, 4600 Rickenbacker Causeway, Miami, FL, 33149, USA
| | - David Lindo-Atichati
- Rosenstiel School of Marine and Atmospheric Science, Cooperative Institute for Marine and Atmospheric Studies, University of Miami, 4600 Rickenbacker Causeway, Miami, FL, 33149, USA
| | - Barbara A Muhling
- Southeast Fisheries Science Center, National Marine Fisheries Service, 75 Virginia Beach Drive, Miami, FL, 33149, USA
- Rosenstiel School of Marine and Atmospheric Science, Cooperative Institute for Marine and Atmospheric Studies, University of Miami, 4600 Rickenbacker Causeway, Miami, FL, 33149, USA
| | - Kevin M Purcell
- Southeast Fisheries Science Center, National Marine Fisheries Service, 101 Pivers Island Road, Beaufort, NC, 28516, USA
| | - Paul M Richards
- Southeast Fisheries Science Center, National Marine Fisheries Service, 75 Virginia Beach Drive, Miami, FL, 33149, USA
| | - Chunzai Wang
- Atlantic Meteorological and Oceanographic Laboratory, Office of Oceanic and Atmospheric Research, 4301 Rickenbacker Causeway, Miami, FL, 33149, USA
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Black BA, Dunham JB, Blundon BW, Brim-Box J, Tepley AJ. Long-term growth-increment chronologies reveal diverse influences of climate forcing on freshwater and forest biota in the Pacific Northwest. Glob Chang Biol 2015; 21:594-604. [PMID: 25258169 DOI: 10.1111/gcb.12756] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.1] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/16/2014] [Revised: 08/21/2014] [Accepted: 09/04/2014] [Indexed: 06/03/2023]
Abstract
Analyses of how organisms are likely to respond to a changing climate have focused largely on the direct effects of warming temperatures, though changes in other variables may also be important, particularly the amount and timing of precipitation. Here, we develop a network of eight growth-increment width chronologies for freshwater mussel species in the Pacific Northwest, United States and integrate them with tree-ring data to evaluate how terrestrial and aquatic indicators respond to hydroclimatic variability, including river discharge and precipitation. Annual discharge averaged across water years (October 1-September 30) was highly synchronous among river systems and imparted a coherent pattern among mussel chronologies. The leading principal component of the five longest mussel chronologies (1982-2003; PC1(mussel)) accounted for 47% of the dataset variability and negatively correlated with the leading principal component of river discharge (PC1(discharge); r = -0.88; P < 0.0001). PC1(mussel) and PC1(discharge) were closely linked to regional wintertime precipitation patterns across the Pacific Northwest, the season in which the vast majority of annual precipitation arrives. Mussel growth was also indirectly related to tree radial growth, though the nature of the relationships varied across the landscape. Negative correlations occurred in forests where tree growth tends to be limited by drought while positive correlations occurred in forests where tree growth tends to be limited by deep or lingering snowpack. Overall, this diverse assemblage of chronologies illustrates the importance of winter precipitation to terrestrial and freshwater ecosystems and suggests that a complexity of climate responses must be considered when estimating the biological impacts of climate variability and change.
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Affiliation(s)
- Bryan A Black
- Marine Science Institute, University of Texas at Austin, 750 Channel View Drive, Port Aransas, TX, 78373, USA
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Black BA, Sydeman WJ, Frank DC, Griffin D, Stahle DW, García-Reyes M, Rykaczewski RR, Bograd SJ, Peterson WT. Climate change. Six centuries of variability and extremes in a coupled marine-terrestrial ecosystem. Science 2014; 345:1498-502. [PMID: 25237100 DOI: 10.1126/science.1253209] [Citation(s) in RCA: 55] [Impact Index Per Article: 5.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/02/2022]
Abstract
Reported trends in the mean and variability of coastal upwelling in eastern boundary currents have raised concerns about the future of these highly productive and biodiverse marine ecosystems. However, the instrumental records on which these estimates are based are insufficiently long to determine whether such trends exceed preindustrial limits. In the California Current, a 576-year reconstruction of climate variables associated with winter upwelling indicates that variability increased over the latter 20th century to levels equaled only twice during the past 600 years. This modern trend in variance may be unique, because it appears to be driven by an unprecedented succession of extreme, downwelling-favorable, winter climate conditions that profoundly reduce productivity for marine predators of commercial and conservation interest.
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Affiliation(s)
- Bryan A Black
- University of Texas Marine Science Institute, 750 Channel View Drive, Port Aransas, TX 78373, USA.
| | - William J Sydeman
- Farallon Institute for Advanced Ecosystem Research, 101 H Street, Suite Q, Petaluma, CA 94952, USA
| | - David C Frank
- Swiss Federal Research Institute WSL, Zürcherstrasse 111, CH-8903 Birmensdorf, Switzerland and Oeschger Centre for Climate Change Research, University of Bern, Zähringerstrasse 25, CH-3012 Bern, Switzerland
| | - Daniel Griffin
- Department of Geology and Geophysics, Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, 266 Woods Hole Road, Woods Hole, MA 02543, USA
| | - David W Stahle
- Department of Geosciences, University of Arkansas, 216 Ozark Hall, Fayetteville, AR 72701, USA
| | - Marisol García-Reyes
- Farallon Institute for Advanced Ecosystem Research, 101 H Street, Suite Q, Petaluma, CA 94952, USA
| | - Ryan R Rykaczewski
- Department of Biological Sciences and Marine Science Program, University of South Carolina, 701 Sumter Street, Columbia, SC 29208, USA
| | - Steven J Bograd
- Environmental Research Division, Southwest Fisheries Science Center, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), 1352 Lighthouse Avenue, Pacific Grove, CA 93950, USA
| | - William T Peterson
- Northwest Fisheries Science Center, Hatfield Marine Science Center, NOAA, 2030 Southeast Marine Science Drive, Newport, OR 97365, USA
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Sydeman WJ, García-Reyes M, Schoeman DS, Rykaczewski RR, Thompson SA, Black BA, Bograd SJ. Climate change. Climate change and wind intensification in coastal upwelling ecosystems. Science 2014; 345:77-80. [PMID: 24994651 DOI: 10.1126/science.1251635] [Citation(s) in RCA: 109] [Impact Index Per Article: 10.9] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/02/2022]
Abstract
In 1990, Andrew Bakun proposed that increasing greenhouse gas concentrations would force intensification of upwelling-favorable winds in eastern boundary current systems that contribute substantial services to society. Because there is considerable disagreement about whether contemporary wind trends support Bakun's hypothesis, we performed a meta-analysis of the literature on upwelling-favorable wind intensification. The preponderance of published analyses suggests that winds have intensified in the California, Benguela, and Humboldt upwelling systems and weakened in the Iberian system over time scales ranging up to 60 years; wind change is equivocal in the Canary system. Stronger intensification signals are observed at higher latitudes, consistent with the warming pattern associated with climate change. Overall, reported changes in coastal winds, although subtle and spatially variable, support Bakun's hypothesis of upwelling intensification in eastern boundary current systems.
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Affiliation(s)
- W J Sydeman
- Farallon Institute for Advanced Ecosystem Research, Suite Q, 101 H Street, Petaluma, CA 94952, USA.
| | - M García-Reyes
- Farallon Institute for Advanced Ecosystem Research, Suite Q, 101 H Street, Petaluma, CA 94952, USA
| | - D S Schoeman
- Faculty of Science, Health, Education and Engineering, University of the Sunshine Coast, Locked Bag 4, Maroochydore DC, Queensland 4558, Australia
| | - R R Rykaczewski
- Department of Biological Sciences and Marine Science Program, University of South Carolina, 701 Sumter Street, Columbia, SC 29208, USA
| | - S A Thompson
- Farallon Institute for Advanced Ecosystem Research, Suite Q, 101 H Street, Petaluma, CA 94952, USA. Climate Impacts Group, University of Washington, Box 355674, Seattle, WA 98195, USA
| | - B A Black
- Marine Science Institute, University of Texas, 750 Channel View Drive, Port Aransas, TX 78373, USA
| | - S J Bograd
- Environmental Research Division, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Southwest Fisheries Science Center, 1352 Lighthouse Avenue, Pacific Grove, CA 93950-2097, USA
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Matta ME, Orland IJ, Ushikubo T, Helser TE, Black BA, Valley JW. Otolith oxygen isotopes measured by high-precision secondary ion mass spectrometry reflect life history of a yellowfin sole (Limanda aspera). Rapid Commun Mass Spectrom 2013; 27:691-699. [PMID: 23418148 DOI: 10.1002/rcm.6502] [Citation(s) in RCA: 5] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/06/2012] [Revised: 01/02/2013] [Accepted: 01/03/2013] [Indexed: 06/01/2023]
Abstract
RATIONALE The oxygen isotope ratio (δ(18)O value) of aragonite fish otoliths is dependent on the temperature and the δ(18)O value of the ambient water and can thus reflect the environmental history of a fish. Secondary ion mass spectrometry (SIMS) offers a spatial-resolution advantage over conventional acid-digestion techniques for stable isotope analysis of otoliths, especially given their compact nature. METHODS High-precision otolith δ(18)O analysis was conducted with an IMS-1280 ion microprobe to investigate the life history of a yellowfin sole (Limanda aspera), a Bering Sea species known to migrate ontogenetically. The otolith was cut transversely through its core and one half was roasted to eliminate organic contaminants. Values of δ(18)O were measured in 10-µm spots along three transects (two in the roasted half, one in the unroasted half) from the core toward the edge. Otolith annual growth zones were dated using the dendrochronology technique of crossdating. RESULTS Measured values of δ(18)O ranged from 29.0 to 34.1‰ (relative to Vienna Standard Mean Ocean Water). Ontogenetic migration from shallow to deeper waters was reflected in generally increasing δ(18)O values from age-0 to approximately age-7 and subsequent stabilization after the expected onset of maturity at age-7. Cyclical variations of δ(18)O values within juvenile otolith growth zones, up to 3.9‰ in magnitude, were caused by a combination of seasonal changes in the temperature and the δ(18)O value of the ambient water. CONCLUSIONS The ion microprobe produced a high-precision and high-resolution record of the relative environmental conditions experienced by a yellowfin sole that was consistent with population-level studies of ontogeny. Furthermore, this study represents the first time that crossdating has been used to ensure the dating accuracy of δ(18)O measurements in otoliths.
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Affiliation(s)
- Mary Elizabeth Matta
- Resource Ecology and Fisheries Management Division, Alaska Fisheries Science Center, National Marine Fisheries Service, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, 7600 Sand Point Way NE, Seattle, WA 98115, USA.
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Abstract
Coral bleaching, during which corals lose their symbiotic dinoflagellates, typically corresponds with periods of intense heat stress, and appears to be increasing in frequency and geographic extent as the climate warms. A fundamental question in coral reef ecology is whether chronic local stress reduces coral resistance and resilience from episodic stress such as bleaching, or alternatively promotes acclimatization, potentially increasing resistance and resilience. Here we show that following a major bleaching event, Montastraea faveolata coral growth rates at sites with higher local anthropogenic stressors remained suppressed for at least 8 years, while coral growth rates at sites with lower stress recovered in 2–3 years. Instead of promoting acclimatization, our data indicate that background stress reduces coral fitness and resilience to episodic events. We also suggest that reducing chronic stress through local coral reef management efforts may increase coral resilience to global climate change.
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Affiliation(s)
- Jessica E Carilli
- Scripps Institution of Oceanography, University of California San Diego, La Jolla, CA, USA.
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Abrams MD, Copenheaver CA, Black BA, Gevel SVD. Dendroecology and climatic impacts for a relict, old-growth, bog forest in the Ridge and Valley Province of central Pennsylvania, U.S.A. ACTA ACUST UNITED AC 2001. [DOI: 10.1139/b00-145] [Citation(s) in RCA: 10] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.4] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/22/2022]
Abstract
We report on the 440-year dendrochronological history of a relict, bog forest in the Ridge and Valley Province of central Pennsylvania that contains extreme southern, disjunct populations of Picea mariana (Mill.) BSP and Abies balsamea (L.) Mill. The forest is dominated by Tsuga canadensis (L.) Carr. (49% relative importance value), Picea mariana (16%), and Acer rubrum L. (15%). The few remaining Abies balsamea trees are in a advanced state of decline. Many Nyssa sylvatica Marsh. and T. canadensis trees recruited from 1560 and 1700, respectively, until 1890. However, the majority of the other tree species recruited during a 40-year period following selective logging of the forest in the 1890s and fires in about 1900 and 1914. We found a scarcity of tree saplings and no evidence of recruitment into the tree-size class for any species after 1950. The master tree-ring chronology for both N. sylvatica and T. canadensis exhibits a marked increase after the 1890s logging and a decrease after a 1900 fire. In addition, a large number of releases in individual tree chronologies occurred over the last 400 years, indicating the frequent occurrence of small-scale disturbances. Tree-ring growth during the 20th century was reduced by droughts and cool temperatures in the 1920s and in the early to middle 1960s. Abies balsamea cores exhibit a marked growth decline in 1986. Tsuga canadensis growth was very low between 1970 and 1998, despite a generally warm and wet climate during that time. Picea mariana had a dramatic increase in growth during very warm and wet climate between 1995 and 1998. Most Abies balsamea trees have reached their pathological age of 50-85 years and have active Armillaria root rot, insect infestations, and very poorly developed crowns. These symptoms or severe growth declines are not present in Picea mariana. It appears that the 10 000 year history of Abies balsamea presence at Bear Meadows will end soon, with no opportunity to reestablish itself because of the lack of a local seed source. The results of this study suggest that relict tree populations in the eastern United States may be particularly sensitive to direct and indirect anthropogenic impacts and climatic variations, and represent important benchmarks for comparisons with future studies.Key words: tree rings, disturbance, climate, global change, central Pennsylvania.
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Emerich DF, Black BA, Kesslak JP, Cotman CW, Walsh TJ. Transplantation of fetal cholinergic neurons into the hippocampus attenuates the cognitive and neurochemical deficits induced by AF64A. Brain Res Bull 1992; 28:219-26. [PMID: 1596741 DOI: 10.1016/0361-9230(92)90182-w] [Citation(s) in RCA: 59] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 12/27/2022]
Abstract
The present experiments examined whether transplanted fetal cholinergic neurons would attenuate the behavioral and neurochemical deficits induced by the cholinotoxin AF64A (ethylcholine aziridinium ion). Bilateral injections of AF64A (3 nmol) into the lateral ventricles produced significant learning and memory impairments together with decreases in hippocampal high-affinity choline uptake (HAChU). AF64A-treated rats were impaired on both a standard radial arm maze (RAM) task and a working memory version in which a one-hour delay was imposed between the fourth and fifth arm choices. Transplantation of embryonic day E-17 septal/diagonal band tissue into the hippocampus (HPC) promoted recovery of performance on the standard version of the RAM task. However, this recovery was not observed when the animals were tested on the more difficult delay version of the task. Neurochemical analysis indicated that AF64A produced a significant (31%) decrease in hippocampal HAChU that was attenuated (14%) by transplantation of fetal cholinergic neurons. Histological analysis revealed that the transplants survived and innervated the HPC. There was no apparent relationship between fiber ingrowth into the HPC and behavioral recovery. These data indicate that transplant-induced behavioral recovery may be related to and limited by the cognitive demands of the testing situation. Generalized increases in cholinergic activity, transplant-mediated release of trophic factors, or a combination of both may underlie the behavioral recovery observed in the present studies.
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Affiliation(s)
- D F Emerich
- Department of Psychology, Rutgers University, New Brunswick, NJ 08903
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Black BA. Letter: Brucellosis control versus eradication. J Am Vet Med Assoc 1975; 167:185-6. [PMID: 1150512] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [MESH Headings] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 12/25/2022]
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