Thermal and hydrologic responses to climate change predict marked alterations in boreal stream invertebrate assemblages

Bioindicator aquatic insects at risk from climate change in a biodiversity hotspot

Climate change can affect biological assemblages by shifting their species' geographic range and changing species richness. Aquatic insects represent more than half of the freshwater animal species but have been neglected mainly in climate change assessments, particularly in tropical ecosystems. Among the aquatic insect taxa, Ephemeroptera, Plecoptera, and Trichoptera (EPT) are well-known bioindicators of environmental changes and encompass an essential metric for rivers and streams' biomonitoring. Here, we use ecological niche models to project the impact of climate change on the distribution range and richness of EPT in the Atlantic Forest biodiversity hotspot. We found EPT to be at high risk from future climate change, with Plecoptera as the order of greatest concern. We projected range contraction of ca. 90 % of the analyzed EPT genera, resulting in a reduction in the richness of EPT genera under future climatic conditions. We projected >50 % contraction in the distribution of 50 % of Plecoptera, ≈14 % of Trichoptera, and ≈7 % of Ephemeroptera genera. The remaining climatically suitable regions in the Atlantic Forest are concentrated in the high-altitude areas, which may act as climate refuges for EPT biodiversity in the future. The projected changes in EPT's distribution range and richness may impact biomonitoring programs conducted in tropical ecosystems. Restricting EPT's geographic distribution may undermine its potential as a bioindicator and influence the composition of EPT assemblages at reference sites, which may lead to shifting baseline conditions. We reinforce the importance of considering future climatic conditions when planning long-term biomonitoring and priority areas for conservation.

Individual and combined impacts of carbon dioxide enrichment, heatwaves, flow velocity variability, and fine sediment deposition on stream invertebrate communities

Climate change and land-use change are widely altering freshwater ecosystem functioning and there is an urgent need to understand how these broad stressor categories may interact in future. While much research has focused on mean temperature increases, climate change also involves increasing variability of both water temperature and flow regimes and increasing concentrations of atmospheric CO2, all with potential to alter stream invertebrate communities. Deposited fine sediment is a pervasive land-use stressor with widespread impacts on stream invertebrates. Sedimentation may be managed at the catchment scale; thus, uncovering interactions with these three key climate stressors may assist mitigation of future threats. This is the first experiment to investigate the individual and combined effects of enriched CO2, heatwaves, flow velocity variability, and fine sediment on realistic stream invertebrate communities. Using 128 mesocosms simulating small stony-bottomed streams in a 7-week experiment, we manipulated dissolved CO2 (ambient; enriched), fine sediment (no sediment; 300 g dry sediment), temperature (ambient; two 7-day heatwaves), and flow velocity (constant; variable). All treatments changed community composition. CO2 enrichment reduced abundances of Orthocladiinae and Chironominae and increased Copepoda abundance. Variable flow velocity had only positive effects on invertebrate abundances (7 of 13 common taxa and total abundance), in contrast to previous experiments showing negative impacts of reduced velocity. CO2 was implicated in most stressor interactions found, with CO2 × sediment interactions being most common. Communities forming under enriched CO2 conditions in sediment-impacted mesocosms had ~20% fewer total invertebrates than those with either treatment alone. Copepoda abundances doubled in CO2-enriched mesocosms without sediment, whereas no CO2 effect occurred in mesocosms with sediment. Our findings provide new insights into potential future impacts of climate change and land use in running freshwaters, in particular highlighting the potential for elevated CO2 to interact with fine sediment deposition in unpredictable ways.

Indicators of the effects of climate change on freshwater ecosystems

Freshwater ecosystems, including lakes, streams, and wetlands, are responsive to climate change and other natural and anthropogenic stresses. These ecosystems are frequently hydrologically and ecologically connected with one another and their surrounding landscapes, thereby integrating changes throughout their watersheds. The responses of any given freshwater ecosystem to climate change depend on the magnitude of climate forcing, interactions with other anthropogenic and natural changes, and the characteristics of the ecosystem itself. Therefore, the magnitude and manner in which freshwater ecosystems respond to climate change is difficult to predict a priori. We present a conceptual model to elucidate how freshwater ecosystems are altered by climate change. We identify eleven indicators that describe the response of freshwater ecosystems to climate change, discuss their potential value and limitations, and describe supporting measurements. Indicators are organized in three inter-related categories: hydrologic, water quality, and ecosystem structure and function. The indicators are supported by data sets with a wide range of temporal and spatial coverage, and they inform important scientific and management needs. Together, these indicators improve the understanding and management of the effects of climate change on freshwater ecosystems.

Effects of water temperature on freshwater macroinvertebrates: a systematic review

Water temperature is one of the main abiotic factors affecting the structure and functioning of aquatic ecosystems and its alteration can have important effects on biological communities. Macroinvertebrates are excellent bio-indicators and have been used for decades to assess the status of aquatic ecosystems as a result of environmental stresses; however, their responses to temperature are poorly documented and have not been systematically evaluated. The aims of this review are: (i) to collate and summarize responses of freshwater macroinvertebrates to different temperature conditions, comparing the results of experimental and theoretical studies; (ii) to understand how the focus of research on the effects of temperature on macroinvertebrates has changed during the last 51 years; and (iii) to identify research gaps regarding temperature responses, ecosystem types, organism groups, spatiotemporal scales, and geographical regions to suggest possible research directions. We performed a comparative assessment of 223 publications that specifically consider freshwater macroinvertebrates and address the effects of temperature. Short-term studies performed in the laboratory and focusing on insects exposed to a range of temperatures dominated. Field studies were carried out mainly in Europe, at catchment scale and almost exclusively in rivers; they mainly investigated responses to water thermal regime at the community scale. The most frequent biological responses tested were growth rate, fecundity and the time and length of emergence, whereas ecological responses mainly involved composition, richness, and distribution. Thermal research on freshwater macroinvertebrates has undergone a shift since the 2000s when studies involving extended spatiotemporal scales and investigating the effects of global warming first appeared. In addition, recent studies have considered the effects of temperature at genetic and evolutionary scales. Our review revealed that the effects of temperature on macroinvertebrates are manifold with implications at different levels, from genes to communities. However, community-level physiological, phenological and fitness responses tested on individuals or populations should be studied in more detail given their macroecological effects are likely to be enhanced by climate warming. In addition, most field studies at regional scales have used air temperature as a proxy for water temperature; obtaining accurate water temperature data in future studies will be important to allow proper consideration of the spatial thermal heterogeneity of water bodies and any effects on macroinvertebrate distribution patterns. Finally, we found an uneven number of studies across different ecosystems and geographic areas, with lentic bodies and regions outside the West underrepresented. It will also be crucial to include macroinvertebrates of high-altitude and tropical areas in future work because these groups are most vulnerable to climate warming for multiple reasons. Further studies on temperature-macroinvertebrate relationships are needed to fill the current gaps and facilitate appropriate conservation strategies for freshwater ecosystems in an anthropogenic-driven era.

Climate change will redefine taxonomic, functional, and phylogenetic diversity of Odonata in space and time

Climate change is rearranging the mosaic of biodiversity worldwide. These broad-scale species re-distributions affect the structure and composition of communities with a ripple effect on multiple biodiversity facets. Using European Odonata, we asked: i) how climate change will redefine taxonomic, phylogenetic, and functional diversity at European scales; ii) which traits will mediate species' response to global change; iii) whether this response will be phylogenetically conserved. Using stacked species distribution models, we forecast widespread latitudinal and altitudinal rearrangements in Odonata community composition determining broad turnovers in traits and evolutionary lineages. According to our phylogenetic regression models, only body size and flight period can be partly correlated with observed range shifts. In considering all primary facets of biodiversity, our results support the design of inclusive conservation strategies able to account for the diversity of species, the ecosystem services they provide, and the phylogenetic heritage they carry in a target ecosystem.

An interpretable machine learning method for supporting ecosystem management: Application to species distribution models of freshwater macroinvertebrates

Species distribution models (SDMs), in which species occurrences are related to a suite of environmental variables, have been used as a decision-making tool in ecosystem management. Complex machine learning (ML) algorithms that lack interpretability may hinder the use of SDMs for ecological explanations, possibly limiting the role of SDMs as a decision-support tool. To meet the growing demand of explainable MLs, several interpretable ML methods have recently been proposed. Among these methods, SHaply Additive exPlanation (SHAP) has drawn attention for its robust theoretical justification and analytical gains. In this study, the utility of SHAP was demonstrated by the application of SDMs of four benthic macroinvertebrate species. In addition to species responses, the dataset contained 22 environmental variables monitored at 436 sites across five major rivers of South Korea. A range of ML algorithms was employed for model development. Each ML model was trained and optimized using 10-fold cross-validation. Model evaluation based on the test dataset indicated strong model performance, with an accuracy of ≥0.7 in all evaluation metrics for all MLs and species. However, only the random forest algorithm showed a behavior consistent with the known ecology of the investigated species. SHAP presents an integrated framework in which local interpretations that incorporate local interaction effects are combined to represent the global model structure. Consequently, this framework offered a novel opportunity to assess the importance of variables in predicting species occurrence, not only across sites, but also for individual sites. Furthermore, removing interaction effects from variable importance values (SHAP values) clearly revealed non-linear species responses to variations in environmental variables, indicating the existence of ecological thresholds. This study provides guidelines for the use of a new interpretable method supporting ecosystem management.

Climate and land-use changes interact to drive long-term reorganization of riverine fish communities globally

As climate change unfolds, changes in population dynamics and species distribution ranges are expected to fundamentally reshuffle communities worldwide. Yet, a comprehensive understanding of the mechanisms and extent of community reorganization remains elusive. This is particularly true in riverine systems, which are simultaneously exposed to changing temperature and streamflow, and where land-use change continues to be a major driver of biodiversity loss. Here, we use the most comprehensive compilation of fish abundance time series to date to provide a global synthesis of climate- and LU-induced effects on riverine biota with respect to changes in species thermal and streamflow affinities. We demonstrate that fish communities are increasingly dominated by thermophilic (warm-water) and limnophilic (slow-water) species. Despite being consistent with trends in water temperature and streamflow observed over recent decades, these community changes appear largely decoupled from each other and show wide spatial variation. We further reveal a synergy among climate- and land use-related drivers, such that community thermophilization is heightened in more human-modified systems. Importantly, communities in which species experience thermal and flow regimes that approach or exceed their tolerance thresholds (high community sensitivity), as well as species-poor communities (low community resilience), also display faster rates of compositional change. This research illustrates that quantifying vulnerability of riverine systems to climate change requires a broadening from a narrower thermal focus to more integrative approaches that account for the spatially varying and multifaceted sensitivity of riverine organisms to the interactive effects of water temperature, hydrology, and other anthropogenic changes.

Temperature effects on the temporal dynamics of a subarctic invertebrate community

Climate warming is predicted to have major impacts on the structure of terrestrial communities, particularly in high latitude ecosystems where growing seasons are short. Higher temperatures may dampen seasonal dynamics in community composition as a consequence of earlier snowmelt, with potentially cascading effects across all levels of biological organisation. Here, we examined changes in community assembly and structure along a natural soil temperature gradient in the Hengill geothermal valley, Iceland, during the summer of 2015. Sample collection over several time points within a season allowed us to assess whether temperature alters temporal variance in terrestrial communities and compositional turnover. We found that seasonal fluctuations in species richness, diversity and evenness were dampened as soil temperature increased, whereas invertebrate biomass varied more. Body mass was found to be a good predictor of species occurrence, with smaller species found at higher soil temperatures and emerging earlier in the season. Our results provide more in-depth understanding of the temporal nature of community and population-level responses to temperature, and indicate that climate warming will likely dampen the seasonal turnover of community structure that is characteristic of high latitude invertebrate communities.

Multiple stressors in small streams in the forestry context of Fennoscandia: The effects in time and space

In this paper we describe how forest management practices in Fennoscandian countries, namely Sweden and Finland, expose streams to multiple stressors over space and time. In this region, forestry includes several different management actions and we explore how these may successively disturb the same location over 60-100 year long rotation periods. Of these actions, final harvest and associated road construction, soil scarification, and/or ditch network maintenance are the most obvious sources of stressors to aquatic ecosystems. Yet, more subtle actions such as planting, thinning of competing saplings and trees, and removing logging residues also represent disturbances around waterways in these landscapes. We review literature about how these different forestry practices may introduce a combination of physicochemical stressors, including hydrological change, increased sediment transport, altered thermal and light regimes, and water quality deterioration. We further elaborate on how the single stressors may combine and interact and we consequently hypothesise how these interactions may affect aquatic communities and processes. Because production forestry is practiced on a large area in both countries, the various stressors appear multiple times during the rotation cycles and potentially affect the majority of the stream network length within most catchments. We concluded that forestry practices have traditionally not been the focus of multiple stressor studies and should be investigated further in both observational and experimental fashion. Stressors accumulate across time and space in forestry dominated landscapes, and may interact in unpredictable ways, limiting our current understanding of what forested stream networks are exposed to and how we can design and apply best management practices.

Disentangling the potential effects of land-use and climate change on stream conditions

Land-use and climate change are significantly affecting stream ecosystems, yet understanding of their long-term impacts is hindered by the few studies that have simultaneously investigated their interaction and high variability among future projections. We modeled possible effects of a suite of 2030, 2060, and 2090 land-use and climate scenarios on the condition of 70,772 small streams in the Chesapeake Bay watershed, United States. The Chesapeake Basin-wide Index of Biotic Integrity, a benthic macroinvertebrate multimetric index, was used to represent stream condition. Land-use scenarios included four Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (A1B, A2, B1, and B2) representing a range of potential landscape futures. Future climate scenarios included quartiles of future climate changes from downscaled Coupled Model Intercomparison Project - Phase 5 (CMIP5) and a watershed-wide uniform scenario (Lynch2016). We employed random forests analysis to model individual and combined effects of land-use and climate change on stream conditions. Individual scenarios suggest that by 2090, watershed-wide conditions may exhibit anywhere from large degradations (e.g., scenarios A1B, A2, and the CMIP5 25th percentile) to small degradations (e.g., scenarios B1, B2, and Lynch2016). Combined land-use and climate change scenarios highlighted their interaction and predicted, by 2090, watershed-wide degradation in 16.2% (A2 CMIP5 25th percentile) to 1.0% (B2 Lynch2016) of stream kilometers. A goal for the Chesapeake Bay watershed is to restore 10% of stream kilometers over a 2008 baseline; our results suggest meeting and sustaining this goal until 2090 may require improvement in 11.0%-26.2% of stream kilometers, dependent on land-use and climate scenario. These results highlight inherent variability among scenarios and the resultant uncertainty of predicted conditions, which reinforces the need to incorporate multiple scenarios of both land-use (e.g., development, agriculture, etc.) and climate change in future studies to encapsulate the range of potential future conditions.

Structural and functional responses of invertebrate communities to climate change and flow regulation in alpine catchments

Understanding and predicting how biological communities respond to climate change is critical for assessing biodiversity vulnerability and guiding conservation efforts. Glacier- and snow-fed rivers are one of the most sensitive ecosystems to climate change, and can provide early warning of wider-scale changes. These rivers are frequently used for hydropower production but there is minimal understanding of how biological communities are influenced by climate change in a context of flow regulation. This study sheds light on this issue by disentangling structural (water temperature preference, taxonomic composition, alpha, beta and gamma diversities) and functional (functional traits, diversity, richness, evenness, dispersion and redundancy) effects of climate change in interaction with flow regulation in the Alps. For this, we compared environmental and aquatic invertebrate data collected in the 1970s and 2010s in regulated and unregulated alpine catchments. We hypothesized a replacement of cold-adapted species by warming-tolerant ones, high temporal and spatial turnover in taxa and trait composition, along with reduced taxonomic and functional diversities in consequence of climate change. We expected communities in regulated rivers to respond more drastically due to additive or synergistic effects between flow regulation and climate change. We found divergent structural but convergent functional responses between free-flowing and regulated catchments. Although cold-adapted taxa decreased in both of them, greater colonization and spread of thermophilic species was found in the free-flowing one, resulting in higher spatial and temporal turnover. Since the 1970s, taxonomic diversity increased in the free flowing but decreased in the regulated catchment due to biotic homogenization. Colonization by taxa with new functional strategies (i.e. multivoltine taxa with small body size, resistance forms, aerial dispersion and reproduction by clutches) increased functional diversity but decreased functional redundancy through time. These functional changes could jeopardize the ability of aquatic communities facing intensification of ongoing climate change or new anthropogenic disturbances.

18S rRNA metabarcoding diet analysis of a predatory fish community across seasonal changes in prey availability

Predator-prey relationships are important ecological interactions, affecting biotic community composition and energy flow through a system, and are of interest to ecologists and managers. Morphological diet analysis has been the primary method used to quantify the diets of predators, but emerging molecular techniques using genetic data can provide more accurate estimates of relative diet composition. This study used sequences from the 18S V9 rRNA barcoding region to identify prey items in the gastrointestinal (GI) tracts of predatory fishes. Predator GI samples were taken from the Black River, Cheboygan Co., MI, USA (n = 367 samples, 12 predator species) during periods of high prey availability, including the larval stage of regionally threatened lake sturgeon (Acipenser fulvescens Rafinesque 1817) in late May/early June of 2015 and of relatively lower prey availability in early July of 2015. DNA was extracted and sequenced from 355 samples (96.7%), and prey DNA was identified in 286 of the 355 samples (80.6%). Prey were grouped into 33 ecologically significant taxonomic groups based on the lowest taxonomic level sequences that could be identified using sequences available on GenBank. Changes in the makeup of diet composition, dietary overlap, and predator preference were analyzed comparing the periods of high and low prey abundance. Some predator species exhibited significant seasonal changes in diet composition. Dietary overlap was slightly but significantly higher during the period of high prey abundance; however, there was little change in predator preference. This suggests that change in prey availability was the driving factor in changing predator diet composition and dietary overlap. This study demonstrates the utility of molecular diet analysis and how temporal variability in community composition adds complexity to predator-prey interactions.

Changes in short term river flow regulation and hydropeaking in Nordic rivers

Quantifying short-term changes in river flow is important in understanding the environmental impacts of hydropower generation. Energy markets can change rapidly and energy demand fluctuates at sub-daily scales, which may cause corresponding changes in regulated river flow (hydropeaking). Due to increasing use of renewable energy, in future hydropower will play a greater role as a load balancing power source. This may increase current hydropeaking levels in Nordic river systems, creating challenges in maintaining a healthy ecological status. This study examined driving forces for hydropeaking in Nordic rivers using extensive datasets from 150 sites with hourly time step river discharge data. It also investigated the influence of increased wind power production on hydropeaking. The data revealed that hydropeaking is at high levels in the Nordic rivers and have seen an increase over the last decade and especially over the past few years. These results indicate that increased building for renewable energy may increase hydropeaking in Nordic rivers.