Nature-based solutions potential for flood risk reduction under extreme rainfall events

Climate change will substantially increase extreme rainfall events, especially in the Tropics, enhancing flood risks. Such imminent risks require climate adaptation strategies to endure extreme rainfall and increase drainage systems. Here, we evaluate the potential of nature-based solutions by using an ecosystem service modeling approach, evaluating the impact of extreme rainfall events on flood risks in a large urban area and with a real-world land recovery plan. We evaluate the cost-effectiveness of four different land recovery scenarios and associated co-benefits, based on a gradient increase in area recovered and cost of implementation. Although the scenarios reveal increasing flood risk reduction and co-benefits along with greater proportion of land recovery, the most cost-effective scenario was the one with an intermediate land recovery where 30% of the study area would be reforested. We emphasize the striking benefits of nature-based solutions for flood risk reduction in cities, considering landscape scale and stakeholders' needs.

Interventions to Reduce Risk for Pathogen Spillover and Early Disease Spread to Prevent Outbreaks, Epidemics, and Pandemics

The pathogens that cause most emerging infectious diseases in humans originate in animals, particularly wildlife, and then spill over into humans. The accelerating frequency with which humans and domestic animals encounter wildlife because of activities such as land-use change, animal husbandry, and markets and trade in live wildlife has created growing opportunities for pathogen spillover. The risk of pathogen spillover and early disease spread among domestic animals and humans, however, can be reduced by stopping the clearing and degradation of tropical and subtropical forests, improving health and economic security of communities living in emerging infectious disease hotspots, enhancing biosecurity in animal husbandry, shutting down or strictly regulating wildlife markets and trade, and expanding pathogen surveillance. We summarize expert opinions on how to implement these goals to prevent outbreaks, epidemics, and pandemics.

Choosing among correlative, mechanistic, and hybrid models of species' niche and distribution

Different models are available to estimate species' niche and distribution. Mechanistic and correlative models have different underlying conceptual bases, thus generating different estimates of a species' niche and geographic extent. Hybrid models, which combining correlative and mechanistic approaches, are considered a promising strategy; however, no synthesis in the literature assessed their applicability for terrestrial vertebrates to allow best-choice model considering their strengths and trade-offs. Here, we provide a systematic review of studies that compared or integrated correlative and mechanistic models to estimate species' niche for terrestrial vertebrates under climate change. Our goal was to understand their conceptual, methodological, and performance differences, and the applicability of each approach. The studies we reviewed directly compared mechanistic and correlative predictions in terms of accuracy or estimated suitable area, however, without any quantitative analysis to support comparisons. Contrastingly, many studies suggest that instead of comparing approaches, mechanistic and correlative methods should be integrated (hybrid models). However, we stress that the best approach is highly context-dependent. Indeed, the quality and effectiveness of the prediction depends on the study's objective, methodological design, and which type of species' niche and geographic distribution estimated are more appropriate to answer the study's issue.

We're building it up to burn it down: fire occurrence and fire-related climatic patterns in Brazilian biomes

Background

Terrestrial biomes in South America are likely to experience a persistent increase in environmental temperature, possibly combined with moisture reduction due to climate change. In addition, natural fire ignition sources, such as lightning, can become more frequent under climate change scenarios since favourable environmental conditions are likely to occur more often. In this sense, changes in the frequency and magnitude of natural fires can impose novel stressors on different ecosystems according to their adaptation to fires. By focusing on Brazilian biomes, we use an innovative combination of techniques to quantify fire persistence and occurrence patterns over time and evaluate climate risk by considering key fire-related climatic characteristics. Then, we tested four major hypotheses considering the overall characteristics of fire-dependent, fire-independent, and fire-sensitive biomes concerning (1) fire persistence over time; (2) the relationship between climate and fire occurrence; (3) future predictions of climate change and its potential impacts on fire occurrence; and (4) climate risk faced by biomes.

Methods

We performed a Detrended Fluctuation Analysis to test whether fires in Brazilian biomes are persistent over time. We considered four bioclimatic variables whose links to fire frequency and intensity are well-established to assess the relationship between climate and fire occurrence by confronting these climate predictors with a fire occurrence dataset through correlative models. To assess climate risk, we calculated the climate hazard, sensitivity, resilience, and vulnerability of Brazilian biomes, and then we multiplied the Biomes' vulnerability index by the hazards.

Results

Our results indicate a persistent behaviour of fires in all Brazilian biomes at almost the same rates, which could represent human-induced patterns of fire persistence. We also corroborated our second hypothesis by showing that most fire-dependent biomes presented high thermal suitability to fire, while the fire-independent biome presented intermediate suitability and fire-sensitive biomes are the least suitable for fire occurrence. The third hypothesis was partially corroborated since fire-dependent and independent biomes are likely to increase their thermal suitability to fire, while fire-sensitive biomes are likely to present stable-to-decreasing thermal suitability in the future. Finally, our fourth hypothesis was partially corroborated since most fire-dependent biomes presented low climate risk, while the fire-independent biome presented a high risk and the fire-sensitive biomes presented opposite trends. In summary, while the patterns of fire persistence and fire occurrence over time are more likely to be related to human-induced fires, key drivers of burned areas are likely to be intensified across Brazilian biomes in the future, potentially increasing the magnitude of the fires and harming the biomes' integrity.

The costs and benefits of primary prevention of zoonotic pandemics

The lives lost and economic costs of viral zoonotic pandemics have steadily increased over the past century. Prominent policymakers have promoted plans that argue the best ways to address future pandemic catastrophes should entail, "detecting and containing emerging zoonotic threats." In other words, we should take actions only after humans get sick. We sharply disagree. Humans have extensive contact with wildlife known to harbor vast numbers of viruses, many of which have not yet spilled into humans. We compute the annualized damages from emerging viral zoonoses. We explore three practical actions to minimize the impact of future pandemics: better surveillance of pathogen spillover and development of global databases of virus genomics and serology, better management of wildlife trade, and substantial reduction of deforestation. We find that these primary pandemic prevention actions cost less than 1/20th the value of lives lost each year to emerging viral zoonoses and have substantial cobenefits.

Global land-use and land-cover data for ecologists: Historical, current, and future scenarios

Land-use land-cover (LULC) data are important predictors of species occurrence and biodiversity threat. Although there are LULC datasets available for ecologists under current conditions, there is a lack of such data under historical and future climatic conditions. This hinders, for example, projecting niche and distribution models under global change scenarios at different times. The Land Use Harmonization Project (LUH2) is a global terrestrial dataset at 0.25o spatial resolution that provides LULC data from 850 to 2300 for 12 LULC state classes. The dataset, however, is compressed in a file format (NetCDF) that is incompatible with most ecological analysis and intractable for most ecologists. Here we selected and transformed the LUH2 data in order to make it more useful for ecological studies. We provide LULC for every year from 850 to 2100, with data from 2015 on provided under two Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP2 and SSP5). We provide two types of file for each year: separate files with continuous values for each of the 12 LULC state classes, and a single categorical file with all state classes combined. To create the categorical layer, we assigned the state with the highest value in a given pixel among the 12 continuous data. The final dataset provides LULC data for 1251 years that will be of interest for macroecology, ecological niche modeling, global change analysis, and other applications in ecology and conservation. We also provide a description of LUH2 prediction of future LULC change through time.

The Program for Biodiversity Research in Brazil: The role of regional networks for biodiversity knowledge, dissemination, and conservation

The Program for Biodiversity Research (PPBio) is an innovative program designed to integrate all biodiversity research stakeholders. Operating since 2004, it has installed long-term ecological research sites throughout Brazil and its logic has been applied in some other southern-hemisphere countries. The program supports all aspects of research necessary to understand biodiversity and the processes that affect it. There are presently 161 sampling sites (see some of them at Supplementary Appendix), most of which use a standardized methodology that allows comparisons across biomes and through time. To date, there are about 1200 publications associated with PPBio that cover topics ranging from natural history to genetics and species distributions. Most of the field data and metadata are available through PPBio web sites or DataONE. Metadata is available for researchers that intend to explore the different faces of Brazilian biodiversity spatio-temporal variation, as well as for managers intending to improve conservation strategies. The Program also fostered, directly and indirectly, local technical capacity building, and supported the training of hundreds of undergraduate and graduate students. The main challenge is maintaining the long-term funding necessary to understand biodiversity patterns and processes under pressure from global environmental changes.

The COVID-19 pandemic as an opportunity to weaken environmental protection in Brazil

This paper examines the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on environmental protection and legislation in Brazil. We evaluate major legislative actions, environmental fines and deforestation since January 2019. We show that 57 legislative acts aimed at weakening environmental protection in Brazil during the current administration, almost half of which in the seven-month period of the pandemic in Brazil, with September 2020 as the month with the most legislative acts (n = 16). These acts either deregulated or weakened current environmental legislation, with a number of them aimed at dismantling the main federal institutions in charge of environmental protection. We also found a 72% reduction in environmental fines during the pandemic, despite an increase in Amazonian deforestation during this period. We conclude that the current administration is taking advantage of the COVID-19 pandemic to intensify a pattern of weakening environmental protection in Brazil. This has the potential to intensify ongoing loss of biodiversity, greenhouse gas emissions, and the likelihood of other zoonotic disease outbreaks, and inflict substantial harm to traditional and indigenous peoples. We highlight the key role of the scientific community, media and civil society, national and international levels, in order to reverse these harmful actions.

NEOTROPICAL CARNIVORES: a data set on carnivore distribution in the Neotropics

Mammalian carnivores are considered a key group in maintaining ecological health and can indicate potential ecological integrity in landscapes where they occur. Carnivores also hold high conservation value and their habitat requirements can guide management and conservation plans. The order Carnivora has 84 species from 8 families in the Neotropical region: Canidae; Felidae; Mephitidae; Mustelidae; Otariidae; Phocidae; Procyonidae; and Ursidae. Herein, we include published and unpublished data on native terrestrial Neotropical carnivores (Canidae; Felidae; Mephitidae; Mustelidae; Procyonidae; and Ursidae). NEOTROPICAL CARNIVORES is a publicly available data set that includes 99,605 data entries from 35,511 unique georeferenced coordinates. Detection/non-detection and quantitative data were obtained from 1818 to 2018 by researchers, governmental agencies, non-governmental organizations, and private consultants. Data were collected using several methods including camera trapping, museum collections, roadkill, line transect, and opportunistic records. Literature (peer-reviewed and grey literature) from Portuguese, Spanish and English were incorporated in this compilation. Most of the data set consists of detection data entries (n = 79,343; 79.7%) but also includes non-detection data (n = 20,262; 20.3%). Of those, 43.3% also include count data (n = 43,151). The information available in NEOTROPICAL CARNIVORES will contribute to macroecological, ecological, and conservation questions in multiple spatio-temporal perspectives. As carnivores play key roles in trophic interactions, a better understanding of their distribution and habitat requirements are essential to establish conservation management plans and safeguard the future ecological health of Neotropical ecosystems. Our data paper, combined with other large-scale data sets, has great potential to clarify species distribution and related ecological processes within the Neotropics. There are no copyright restrictions and no restriction for using data from this data paper, as long as the data paper is cited as the source of the information used. We also request that users inform us of how they intend to use the data.

Planning forest restoration within private land holdings with conservation co-benefits at the landscape scale

Forest loss is mainly due to the conversion of forest to agriculture, mostly in private lands. Forest restoration is a global priority, yet restoration targets are ambitious and budget-limited. Therefore, assessing the outcome of alternative decisions on land-use within private lands is paramount to perform cost-effective restoration. We present a novel framework that incorporates spatial planning for forest restoration within private lands with conservation co-benefits at the landscape scale. As a case study, we used three real landscapes of 10.000 ha with differing amounts of forest cover in the Atlantic Forest region of Brazil, and three hypothetical animal species with different dispersal abilities. We estimated the total amount of forest that landholders must restore to comply with the Native Vegetation Protection Law, which requires landholders to reforest 20% of their land within a 20-year time frame. We compared the cost-effectiveness of five restoration strategies based on the improvement in habitat availability and restoration costs. The most cost-effective strategy depends on a landscape's initial amount of forest cover and the species of concern. We revealed that spatial planning for restoration in private lands increased habitat availability up to 12 times more than random restoration, which was always the least cost-effective strategy. Cost-effective large-scale restoration in Brazil depends on public policies that assist landholders to comply with the law and on prioritizing areas for restoration within private lands. We show that by adding habitat availability as target in spatial prioritization, benefits for biodiversity can be hastened at low additional cost, even in real world scenarios with severe spatial constraints. Despite constraints, spatially planned restoration for law compliance in Brazil increased landscape permeability by creating corridors and stepping stones. Our framework should be used to plan restoration in Brazilian private lands and can be customized for other regions worldwide.

Evolution of altitudinal migration in passerines is linked to diet

Bird migration is typically associated with a latitudinal movement from north to south and vice versa. However, many bird species migrate seasonally with an upslope or downslope movement in a process termed altitudinal migration. Globally, 830 of the 6,579 Passeriformes species are considered altitudinal migrants and this pattern has emerged multiple times across 77 families of this order. Recent work has indicated an association between altitudinal migration and diet, but none have looked at diet as a potential evolutionary driver. Here, we investigated potential evolutionary drivers of altitudinal migration in passerines around the world by using phylogenetic comparative methods. We tested for evolutionary associations between altitudinal migration and foraging guild and primary habitat preference in passerines species worldwide. Our results indicate that foraging guild is evolutionarily associated with altitudinal migration, but this relationship varies across zoogeographical regions. In the Nearctic, herbivorous and omnivorous species are associated with altitudinal migration, while only omnivorous species are associated with altitudinal migration in the Palearctic. Habitat was not strongly linked to the evolution of altitudinal migration. While our results point to diet as a potentially important driver of altitudinal migration, the evolution of this behavior is complex and certainly driven by multiple factors. Altitudinal migration varies in its use (for breeding or molting), within a species, population, and even at the individual level. As such, the evolution of altitudinal migration is likely driven by an ensemble of factors, but this study provides a beginning framework for understanding the evolution of this complex behavior.

Anomalous Pigmentation in Invasive and Native Marmosets, Callithrix jacchus, Callithrix penicillata (Primates, Callitrichidae), and Their Hybrids in Brazil

Leucism is the lack or reduction in pigmentation in the most or parts of the body, but not in the eyes and body extremities. It is extremely rare in primates and has never been reported for Callithrix, a genus endemic to Brazil. We searched for individuals of Callithrix jacchus and C. penicillata with pigmentation anomalies in a systematic survey of three protected areas in the Atlantic Forest, within museum collections in Brazil, and opportunistically during field studies. Since 2008, we have recorded 8 individuals with leucism in small urban and periurban forest patches. Four were from native populations of C. penicillata in Cerrado savannahs and of C. jacchus in the Caatinga xeric scrubland, and 4 were from populations of hybrids between C. jacchus and C. penicillata in invaded areas in the coastal Atlantic Forest. We found no pigmentation abnormalities in museum specimens. We hypothesize that the observed leucism may be linked to inbreeding within the native range, but to hybridization within the invaded range, and discuss the likely ecological consequences to leucistic individuals.

Can forests buffer negative impacts of land-use and climate changes on water ecosystem services? The case of a Brazilian megalopolis

While the role of land-use conversion on water quality is reasonably understood, its role on water quantity is controversial. Climate change is also expected to impact water availability. Here we explore the interplay of hydrology, land-use change and climate change in one of the most populous urban areas in the world. We examined the potential of forests to buffer the negative impacts of land-use and climate changes on water-related ecosystem services in Tietê Basin, Brazil, which supplies water to the São Paulo megalopolis. We modelled six hydrological parameters using the WaterWorld Policy Support System, simulating the current baseline and six future scenarios (with different land-use and climate changes). Our results corroborate the general trend that increased forest cover improves water quality. Our modelling also predicts that increased forest cover increases water quantity in the southern part of the basin. The effects of climate change are observed mainly in urban areas, with a reduction in water quality. Because urban areas are not eligible for reforestation, they cannot benefit from its buffering effect on climate change. The increase in water availability is the greatest benefit of reforestation as a strategy to improve water-related ecosystem services in the region. Reforestation, however, will not suffice to restore all hydrological parameters in the basin, and additional sustainable agricultural practices are needed to mitigate impacts on water quality.

Entomological surveys of Lutzomyia flaviscutellata and other vectors of cutaneous leishmaniasis in municipalities with records of Leishmania amazonensis within the Bragança region of Pará State, Brazil

In southeast Amazon, Lutzomyia (Nyssomyia) flaviscutellata is the incriminated vector of Leishmania (Leishmania) amazonensis, a causative agent of zoonotic cutaneous leishmaniasis (CL). The optimal methods for surveying Lu. flaviscutellata were investigated in the Bragança region, northeast Pará State, Brazil, selected for the presence of Le. amazonensis. The performances of modified Disney traps and CDC light traps were compared in four ecotopes within and around four village transects during the wet and dry seasons. The physiological age of female sand flies was estimated and natural infection by flagellates was evaluated by dissection. Disney traps were better for detecting the presence of Lu. flaviscutellata, while CDC traps performed well for detecting Lutzomyia (Nyssomyia) antunesi, suspected vector of Leishmania lindenbergi. The former was more abundant during the wet season, when female flies were naturally infected with Le. amazonensis. These findings identified the environments of local transmission. In order to improve surveys of Lu. flaviscutellata as part of integrated epidemiological surveillance of CL, our recommendations include focusing vector surveys with Disney traps on forest fragments where people work, during the seasonal peak of the vector. Further field studies are required to make model-based predictions of seasonal variations in the vectorial capacity of vector populations.

Planning protected areas network that are relevant today and under future climate change is possible: the case of Atlantic Forest endemic birds

Background

A key strategy in biodiversity conservation is the establishment of protected areas. In the future, however, the redistribution of species in response to ongoing climate change is likely to affect species’ representativeness in those areas. Here we quantify the effectiveness of planning protected areas network to represent 151 birds endemic to the Brazilian Atlantic Forest hotspot, under current and future climate change conditions for 2050.

Methods

We combined environmental niche modeling and systematic conservation planning using both a county and a regional level planning strategy. We recognized the conflict between biodiversity conservation and economic development, including socio-economic targets (as opposed to biological only) and using planning units that are meaningful for policy-makers.

Results

We estimated an average contraction of 29,500 km² in environmentally suitable areas for birds, representing 52% of currently suitable areas. Still, the most cost-effective solution represented almost all target species, requiring only ca. 10% of the Atlantic Forest counties to achieve that representativeness, independent of strategy. More than 50% of these counties were selected both in the current and future planned networks, representing >83% of the species.

Discussion

Our results indicate that: (i) planning protected areas network currently can be useful to represent species under climate change; (ii) the overlapped planning units in the best solution for both current and future conditions can be considered as “no regret” areas; (iii) priority counties are spread throughout the biome, providing specific guidance wherever the possibility of creating protected area arises; and (iv) decisions can occur at different administrative spheres (Federal, State or County) as we found quite similar numerical solutions using either county or regional level strategies.

Evaluation of the impacts of climate change on disease vectors through ecological niche modelling

Vector-borne diseases are exceptionally sensitive to climate change. Predicting vector occurrence in specific regions is a challenge that disease control programs must meet in order to plan and execute control interventions and climate change adaptation measures. Recently, an increasing number of scientific articles have applied ecological niche modelling (ENM) to study medically important insects and ticks. With a myriad of available methods, it is challenging to interpret their results. Here we review the future projections of disease vectors produced by ENM, and assess their trends and limitations. Tropical regions are currently occupied by many vector species; but future projections indicate poleward expansions of suitable climates for their occurrence and, therefore, entomological surveillance must be continuously done in areas projected to become suitable. The most commonly applied methods were the maximum entropy algorithm, generalized linear models, the genetic algorithm for rule set prediction, and discriminant analysis. Lack of consideration of the full-known current distribution of the target species on models with future projections has led to questionable predictions. We conclude that there is no ideal 'gold standard' method to model vector distributions; researchers are encouraged to test different methods for the same data. Such practice is becoming common in the field of ENM, but still lags behind in studies of disease vectors.

Patterns of Vertebrate Diversity and Protection in Brazil

Most conservation decisions take place at national or finer spatial scales. Providing useful information at such decision-making scales is essential for guiding the practice of conservation. Brazil is one of the world’s megadiverse countries, and consequently decisions about conservation in the country have a disproportionate impact on the survival of global biodiversity. For three groups of terrestrial vertebrates (birds, mammals, and amphibians), we examined geographic patterns of diversity and protection in Brazil, including that of endemic, small-ranged, and threatened species. To understand potential limitations of the data, we also explored how spatial bias in collection localities may influence the perceived patterns of diversity. The highest overall species richness is in the Amazon and Atlantic Forests, while the Atlantic Forest dominates in terms of country endemics and small-ranged species. Globally threatened species do not present a consistent pattern. Patterns for birds were similar to overall species richness, with higher concentrations of threatened species in the Atlantic Forest, while mammals show a more generalized pattern across the country and a high concentration in the Amazon. Few amphibians are listed as threatened, mostly in the Atlantic Forest. Data deficient mammals occur across the country, concentrating in the Amazon and southeast Atlantic Forest, and there are no data deficient birds in Brazil. In contrast, nearly a third of amphibians are data deficient, widespread across the country, but with a high concentration in the far southeast. Spatial biases in species locality data, however, possibly influence the perceived patterns of biodiversity. Regions with low sampling density need more biological studies, as do the many data deficient species. All biomes except the Amazon have less than 3% of their area under full protection. Reassuringly though, rates of protection do correlate with higher biodiversity, including higher levels of threatened and small-ranged species. Our results indicate a need for expanded formal protection in Brazil, especially in the Atlantic forest, and with an emphasis on fully protected areas.

Ecological Niche Modelling Predicts Southward Expansion of Lutzomyia (Nyssomyia) flaviscutellata (Diptera: Psychodidae: Phlebotominae), Vector of Leishmania (Leishmania) amazonensis in South America, under Climate Change

Vector borne diseases are susceptible to climate change because distributions and densities of many vectors are climate driven. The Amazon region is endemic for cutaneous leishmaniasis and is predicted to be severely impacted by climate change. Recent records suggest that the distributions of Lutzomyia (Nyssomyia) flaviscutellata and the parasite it transmits, Leishmania (Leishmania) amazonensis, are expanding southward, possibly due to climate change, and sometimes associated with new human infection cases. We define the vector's climatic niche and explore future projections under climate change scenarios. Vector occurrence records were compiled from the literature, museum collections and Brazilian Health Departments. Six bioclimatic variables were used as predictors in six ecological niche model algorithms (BIOCLIM, DOMAIN, MaxEnt, GARP, logistic regression and Random Forest). Projections for 2050 used 17 general circulation models in two greenhouse gas representative concentration pathways: "stabilization" and "high increase". Ensemble models and consensus maps were produced by overlapping binary predictions. Final model outputs showed good performance and significance. The use of species absence data substantially improved model performance. Currently, L. flaviscutellata is widely distributed in the Amazon region, with records in the Atlantic Forest and savannah regions of Central Brazil. Future projections indicate expansion of the climatically suitable area for the vector in both scenarios, towards higher latitudes and elevations. L. flaviscutellata is likely to find increasingly suitable conditions for its expansion into areas where human population size and density are much larger than they are in its current locations. If environmental conditions change as predicted, the range of the vector is likely to expand to southeastern and central-southern Brazil, eastern Paraguay and further into the Amazonian areas of Bolivia, Peru, Ecuador, Colombia and Venezuela. These areas will only become endemic for L. amazonensis, however, if they have competent reservoir hosts and transmission dynamics matching those in the Amazon region.

Meta-analytical study of productive and nutritional interactions of mycotoxins in broilers

A meta-analysis was carried out to study the association of mycotoxins with performance, productive indices, and organ weights in broilers. Ninety-eight papers published between 1980 and 2009 were used, totaling 1,401 diets and 37,371 animals. Meta-analysis followed 3 sequential analyses: graphical, correlation, and variance-covariance. The mycotoxin presence in diets reduced (P < 0.05) feed intake by 12% and weight gain by 14% compared with control group. Ochratoxins and aflatoxins were the mycotoxins with the greatest effect on feed intake and bird growth, reducing (P < 0.05) feed ingestion by 17 and 11%, respectively, and weight gain by 20 and 11%, respectively. The mycotoxin concentration in diets and the animal age at challenge were the variables that more improved the coefficient of determination for equations to estimate mycotoxin effect on weight gain. The mycotoxin effect on growth proved to be greater in young poultry. The residual analysis revealed that 65% of the variation in weight gain was explained by feed intake. The variation in weight gain of challenged broilers in relation to nonchallenged broilers was also influenced by ingestion of nutrients such as protein and methionine. Mortality was 8.8 and 2.8 times greater (P < 0.05) in groups that received diets with deoxynivalenol and aflatoxins, respectively. Mycotoxins also increased (P < 0.05) the relative weight of liver by 15%, of kidneys by 11%, of lungs by 9%, and of gizzard by 3%. Mycotoxins influenced broiler performance, productive indices, and organ weights. However, the magnitude of the effects varied with type and concentration of mycotoxin, animal age, and nutritional factors.

Conservation challenges for the Austral and Neotropical America section

The Austral and Neotropical America (ANA) section of the Society for Conservation Biology includes a vast territory with some of the largest relatively pristine ecosystems in the world. With more than 573 million people, the economic growth of the region still depends strongly on natural resource exploitation and still has high rates of environmental degradation and biodiversity loss. A survey among the ANA section membership, with more than 700 members, including most of the section's prominent ecologists and conservationists, indicates that lack of capacity building for conservation, corruption, and threats such as deforestation and illegal trade of species, are among the most urgent problems that need to be addressed to improve conservation in the region. There are, however, strong universities and ecology groups taking the lead in environmental research and conservation, a most important issue to enhance the ability of the region to solve conservation and development conflicts.

Effects of future infrastructure development on threat status and occurrence of Amazonian birds

Researchers predict that new infrastructure development will sharply increase the rate and extent of deforestation in the Brazilian Amazon. There are no predictions, however, of which species it will affect. We used a spatially explicit model that predicts the location of deforestation in the Brazilian Amazon by 2020 on the basis of historical patterns of deforestation following infrastructure development. We overlaid the predicted deforested areas onto maps of bird ranges to estimate the amount of habitat loss within species ranges. We also estimated the amount of habitat loss within modified ecoregions, which were used as surrogates for areas of bird endemism. We then used the extent of occurrence criterion of the World Conservation Union to predict the future conservation status of birds in the Brazilian Amazon. At current rates of development, our results show that at least 16 species will qualify as threatened or will lose more than half of their forested habitat. We also identified several subspecies and isolated populations that would also qualify as threatened. Most of the taxa we identified are not currently listed as threatened, and the majority are associated with riverine habitats, which have been largely ignored in bird conservation in Amazonia. These habitats and the species they hold will be increasingly relevant to conservation as river courses are altered and hydroelectric dams are constructed in the Brazilian Amazon.