Large uncertainty in carbon uptake potential of land-based climate-change mitigation efforts

Unpacking the modeling process for energy policy making

This article explores how the modeling of energy systems may lead to an undue closure of alternatives by generating an excess of certainty around some of the possible policy options. We retrospectively exemplify the problem with the case of the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) global modeling in the 1980s. We discuss different methodologies for quality assessment that may help mitigate this issue, which include Numeral Unit Spread Assessment Pedigree (NUSAP), diagnostic diagrams, and sensitivity auditing (SAUD). We illustrate the potential of these reflexive modeling practices in energy policy-making with three additional cases: (i) the case of the energy system modeling environment (ESME) for the creation of UK energy policy; (ii) the negative emission technologies (NETs) uptake in integrated assessment models (IAMs); and (iii) the ecological footprint indicator. We encourage modelers to adopt these approaches to achieve more robust, defensible, and inclusive modeling activities in the field of energy research.

Investing in mini-livestock production for food security and carbon neutrality in China

Future food farming technology faces challenges that must integrate the core goal of keeping the global temperature increase within 1.5 °C without reducing food security and nutrition. Here, we show that boosting the production of insects and earthworms based on food waste and livestock manure to provide food and feed in China will greatly contribute to meeting the country's food security and carbon neutrality pledges. By substituting domestic products with mini-livestock (defined as earthworms and insects produced for food or feed) protein and utilizing the recovered land for bioenergy production plus carbon capture and storage, China's agricultural sector could become carbon-neutral and reduce feed protein imports to near zero. This structural change may lead to reducing greenhouse gas emissions by 2,350 Tg CO2eq per year globally when both domestic and imported products are substituted. Overall, the success of mini-livestock protein production in achieving carbon neutrality and food security for China and its major trading partners depends on how the substitution strategies will be implemented and how the recovered agricultural land will be managed, e.g., free use for afforestation and bioenergy or by restricting this land to food crop use. Using China as an example, this study also demonstrates the potential of mini-livestock for decreasing the environmental burden of food production in general.

Increased precipitation over land due to climate feedback of large-scale bioenergy cultivation

Bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS) is considered to be a key technology for removing carbon dioxide from the atmosphere. However, large-scale bioenergy crop cultivation results in land cover changes and activates biophysical effects on climate, with earth's water recycling altered and energy budget re-adjusted. Here, we use a coupled atmosphere-land model with explicit representations of high-transpiration woody (i.e., eucalypt) and low-transpiration herbaceous (i.e., switchgrass) bioenergy crops to investigate the range of impact of large-scale rainfed bioenergy crop cultivation on the global water cycle and atmospheric water recycling. We find that global land precipitation increases under BECCS scenarios, due to enhanced evapotranspiration and inland moisture advection. Despite enhanced evapotranspiration, soil moisture decreases only slightly, due to increased precipitation and reduced runoff. Our results indicate that, at the global scale, the water consumption by bioenergy crop growth would be partially compensated by atmospheric feedbacks. Thus, to support more effective climate mitigation policies, a more comprehensive assessment, including the biophysical effects of bioenergy cultivation, is highly recommended.

Integrated assessment and critical obstacle diagnosis of rural resource and environmental carrying capacity with a social-ecological framework: a case study of Liyang county, Jiangsu Province

The contradiction among human being, resources, and environment has become a significant obstacle to achieving sustainable development, especially in rural areas subject to the spillover of urban development elements. With the immense strain of resources and environment, it is critical to assess whether human activities fall within the carrying capacity range of a natural ecosystem in a rural system. Taking the rural areas of Liyang county as an example, this study aims to assess the rural resource and environmental carrying capacity (RRECC) and diagnose its critical obstacles. Firstly, a social-ecological framework focusing on human-environment interaction was employed to construct the RRECC indicator system. Subsequently, the entropy-TOPSIS method was introduced to assess the performance of the RRECC. Finally, the obstacle diagnosis method was applied to identify the critical obstacles of RRECC. Our results show that the distribution of RRECC presents a spatial heterogeneity, with high- and medium-high-level villages primarily concentrated in the south of the study area, where there are abundant hills and ecological lakes. Medium-level villages are scattered throughout each town, and low and medium-low level villages are concentrated across all the towns. Moreover, the resource subsystem of RRECC (RRECC_RS) exhibits a similar spatial distribution to RRECC, while the outcome subsystem of RRECC (RRECC_OS) has a comparable quantity proportion of different levels to RRECC. Furthermore, the diagnosis results of critical obstacle vary between the town scale divided by administrative units and the regional scale divided by RRECC values. In detail, arable land occupied by construction is the main critical obstacle at the town scale, while the poor people in villages, people left-behind, and arable land occupied by construction are the main critical obstacles at the regional scale. Targeted differentiated improvement strategies for RRECC at regional scale from various perspectives of global, local, and single are proposed. This research can serve as a theoretical foundation for assessing RRECC and developing differentiated sustainable development strategies for the path forward to rural revitalization.

Temperature Changes Induced by Biogeochemical and Biophysical Effects of Bioenergy Crop Cultivation

The production of bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS) is a pivotal negative emission technology. The cultivation of dedicated crops for BECCS impacts the temperature through two processes: net CO₂ removal (CDR) from the atmosphere (biogeochemical cooling) and changes in the local energy balance (biophysical warming or cooling). Here, we compare the magnitude of these two processes for key grass and tree species envisioned for large-scale bioenergy crop cultivation, following economically plausible scenarios using Earth System Models. By the end of this century, the cumulative CDR from the cultivation of eucalypt (72-112 Pg C) is larger than that of switchgrass (34-83 Pg C) because of contrasting contributions of land use change carbon emissions. The combined biogeochemical and biophysical effects are cooling (-0.26 to -0.04 °C) at the global scale, but 13-28% of land areas still have net warming signals, mainly due to the spatial heterogeneity of the biophysical effects. Our study shows that the deployment of bioenergy crop cultivation should not only be guided by the principles of maximizing yield and CDR but should also take an integrated perspective that includes all relevant Earth system feedbacks.

Thermal sensitivity across forest vertical profiles: patterns, mechanisms, and ecological implications

Rising temperatures are influencing forests on many scales, with potentially strong variation vertically across forest strata. Using published research and new analyses, we evaluate how microclimate and leaf temperatures, traits, and gas exchange vary vertically in forests, shaping tree, and ecosystem ecology. In closed-canopy forests, upper canopy leaves are exposed to the highest solar radiation and evaporative demand, which can elevate leaf temperature (T_leaf ), particularly when transpirational cooling is curtailed by limited stomatal conductance. However, foliar traits also vary across height or light gradients, partially mitigating and protecting against the elevation of upper canopy T_leaf . Leaf metabolism generally increases with height across the vertical gradient, yet differences in thermal sensitivity across the gradient appear modest. Scaling from leaves to trees, canopy trees have higher absolute metabolic capacity and growth, yet are more vulnerable to drought and damaging T_leaf than their smaller counterparts, particularly under climate change. By contrast, understory trees experience fewer extreme high T_leaf 's but have fewer cooling mechanisms and thus may be strongly impacted by warming under some conditions, particularly when exposed to a harsher microenvironment through canopy disturbance. As the climate changes, integrating the patterns and mechanisms reviewed here into models will be critical to forecasting forest-climate feedback.

Mapping the field of bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS): scientific cooperation and co-citation analyses

Bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS), as the most scalable negative emission technology, can limit global warming to 1.5 ℃ under climate change scenarios. With increasing research on BECCS, concerns have been raised about its deployment and impacts. In view of the limited research on the possible structure and collaboration in the field of BECCS, this study sought to determine the scientific cooperation and knowledge structure using bibliometric approaches based on a science mapping analysis. Co-authorship and co-citation networks were developed from CiteSpace to explore the individual, institutional, and national collaborations, and detect the knowledge structure in the field of BECCS. Six key research groups with connections were found with the research group centered on NIALL MAC DOWELL and PETE SMITH being more focused on BECCS. Cluster analysis results show that the knowledge structure of BECCS has gradually formed. The research field has been continuously developed and relatively independent. The findings provide researchers with an in-depth understanding of the current state of BECCS research and its knowledge structure.

Quantifying the impacts of land cover change on gross primary productivity globally

Historically, humans have cleared many forests for agriculture. While this substantially reduced ecosystem carbon storage, the impacts of these land cover changes on terrestrial gross primary productivity (GPP) have not been adequately resolved yet. Here, we combine high-resolution datasets of satellite-derived GPP and environmental predictor variables to estimate the potential GPP of forests, grasslands, and croplands around the globe. With a mean GPP of 2.0 kg C m^-2 yr^-1 forests represent the most productive land cover on two thirds of the total area suitable for any of these land cover types, while grasslands and croplands on average reach 1.5 and 1.8 kg C m^-2 yr^-1, respectively. Combining our potential GPP maps with a historical land-use reconstruction indicates a 4.4% reduction in global GPP from agricultural expansion. This land-use-induced GPP reduction is amplified in some future scenarios as a result of ongoing deforestation (e.g., the large-scale bioenergy scenario SSP4-3.4) but partly reversed in other scenarios (e.g., the sustainability scenario SSP1-1.9) due to agricultural abandonment. Comparing our results to simulations from state-of-the-art Earth System Models, we find that all investigated models deviate substantially from our estimates and from each other. Our maps could be used as a benchmark to reduce this inconsistency, thereby improving projections of land-based climate mitigation potentials.

Global cooling induced by biophysical effects of bioenergy crop cultivation

Bioenergy crop with carbon capture and storage (BECCS) is a key negative emission technology to meet carbon neutrality. However, the biophysical effects of widespread bioenergy crop cultivation on temperature remain unclear. Here, using a coupled atmosphere-land model with an explicit representation of lignocellulosic bioenergy crops, we find that after 50 years of large-scale bioenergy crop cultivation following plausible scenarios, global air temperature decreases by 0.03~0.08 °C, with strong regional contrasts and interannual variability. Over the cultivated regions, woody crops induce stronger cooling effects than herbaceous crops due to larger evapotranspiration rates and smaller aerodynamic resistance. At the continental scale, air temperature changes are not linearly proportional to the cultivation area. Sensitivity tests show that the temperature change is robust for eucalypt but more uncertain for switchgrass among different cultivation maps. Our study calls for new metrics to take the biophysical effects into account when assessing the climate mitigation capacity of BECCS.

Bioenergy crops has been proposed as a climate mitigation measure, but how the biophysical effects of large-scale cultivation would influence the climate is not well known. Here, the authors use models to show that large-scale cultivation could cool the global land by 0.03 to 0.08 °C.

Bioenergy Crops for Low Warming Targets Require Half of the Present Agricultural Fertilizer Use

Bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS) is a key option for removing CO₂ from the atmosphere over time to achieve climate mitigation. However, an overlooked impact of BECCS is the amount of nutrients required to sustain the production. Here, we use an observation-driven approach to estimate the future bioenergy biomass production for land-use scenarios maximizing BECCS and the pertaining nutrient requirements. The projected global biomass production during the 21st century is comparable to the CO₂ removal target for 2 °C warming scenarios. However, 9-19% of this future production hinges on agrotechnology improvement, which remains uncertain. Additional nutrients from fertilizers, corresponding to 56.8 ± 6.1% of the present-day agricultural fertilizer, will be needed to replenish the nutrients removed in harvested biomass at the end of the century, resulting in additional costs and greenhouse gas emissions. Our study reveals the nutrient challenges associated with BECCS and calls for additional management efforts to grow bioenergy crops in a sustainable way.

The Concept of Multiple Impacts of Renewable Energy Sources: A Critical Review

Reaching climate neutrality by 2050 is one of the main long-term objectives of the European Union climate and energy policy, and renewable energy sources (RES) are integral parts of this transition. RES development results in many effects, direct and indirect, linked to each other, societal, local and individual, i.e., “multiple impacts of RES” (MI RES). These effects need to be carefully assessed and evaluated to obtain the full picture of energy field transformation and its context, and enable further development of RES. Nevertheless, the MI RES concept is often presented misleadingly and its scope varies throughout the literature. This paper provides a literature overview of the methodologies of this concept and presents a new concept of MI RES, respecting the difference between effects resulting from the implementation of RES and ultimate multiple impacts. We have summarized the effects into four groups: economic, social, environmental, and technical, which all lead to group of ultimate multiple impacts. Finally, we provide the complex overview of all MI RES and present the framework, which is used to analyze the multiple impacts and effects of RES and to show how the RES development leads and contributes to these impacts and effects. The concept is recommended to be considered in designing a robust energy policy by decision-makers.

Global ecosystems and fire: Multi-model assessment of fire-induced tree-cover and carbon storage reduction

In this study, we use simulations from seven global vegetation models to provide the first multi-model estimate of fire impacts on global tree cover and the carbon cycle under current climate and anthropogenic land use conditions, averaged for the years 2001-2012. Fire globally reduces the tree covered area and vegetation carbon storage by 10%. Regionally, the effects are much stronger, up to 20% for certain latitudinal bands, and 17% in savanna regions. Global fire effects on total carbon storage and carbon turnover times are lower with the effect on gross primary productivity (GPP) close to 0. We find the strongest impacts of fire in savanna regions. Climatic conditions in regions with the highest burned area differ from regions with highest absolute fire impact, which are characterized by higher precipitation. Our estimates of fire-induced vegetation change are lower than previous studies. We attribute these differences to different definitions of vegetation change and effects of anthropogenic land use, which were not considered in previous studies and decreases the impact of fire on tree cover. Accounting for fires significantly improves the spatial patterns of simulated tree cover, which demonstrates the need to represent fire in dynamic vegetation models. Based upon comparisons between models and observations, process understanding and representation in models, we assess a higher confidence in the fire impact on tree cover and vegetation carbon compared to GPP, total carbon storage and turnover times. We have higher confidence in the spatial patterns compared to the global totals of the simulated fire impact. As we used an ensemble of state-of-the-art fire models, including effects of land use and the ensemble median or mean compares better to observational datasets than any individual model, we consider the here presented results to be the current best estimate of global fire effects on ecosystems.

Land Use Changes, Disturbances, and Their Interactions on Future Forest Aboveground Biomass Dynamics in the Northern US

Land use change (LUC), disturbances, and their interactions play an important role in regional forest carbon (C) dynamics. Here we quantified how these activities and events may influence future aboveground biomass (AGB) dynamics in forests using national forest inventory (NFI) and Landsat time series data in the Northern United States (US). Total forest AGB predictions were based on simulations of diameter growth, mortality, and recruitment using matrix growth models under varying levels of LUC and disturbance severity (low (L), medium (M), and high (H)) every five years from 2018 to 2098. Land use change included the integrated effects of deforestation and reforestation/afforestation (forest [F]→agriculture [A], settlements [S, urbanization/other], and A&S→F), specifically, conversion from F→A, F→S, F→A&S, A→F, S→F, and A&S→F. Disturbances included natural and anthropogenic disturbances such as wildfire, weather, insects and disease, and forest harvesting. Results revealed that, when simultaneously considering both medium LUC and disturbances, total forest AGB predictions of LUC + fire, LUC + weather, LUC + insect & disease, and LUC + harvest indicated substantial increases in regional C stocks (± standard deviation) from 1.88 (±0.13) to 3.29 (±0.28), 3.10 (±0.24), 2.91 (±0.19), and 2.68 (±0.17) Pg C, respectively, from 2018 to 2098. An uncertainty analysis with fuzzy sets suggested that medium LUC under disturbances would lead to greater forest AGB C uptake than undisturbed forest C uptake with high certainty, except for LUC + harvest. The matrix models in this study were parameterized using NFI and Landsat data from the past few decades. Thus, our results imply that if recent trends persist, LUC will remain an important driver of forest C uptake, while disturbances may result in C emissions rather than undisturbed forest C uptake by 2098. The combined effects of LUC and disturbances may serve as an important driver of C uptake and emissions in the Northern US well into the 21st century.

Effects of stand age on carbon storage in dragon spruce forest ecosystems in the upper reaches of the Bailongjiang River basin, China

At an ecosystem level, stand age has a significant influence on carbon storage (CS). Dragon spruce (Picea asperata Mast.) situated along the upper reaches of the Bailongjiang River in northwest China were categorized into three age classes (29-32 years, Y₁; 34-39 years, Y₂; 40-46 years, Y₃), and age-related differences in total carbon storage (TCS) of the forest ecosystem were investigated for the first time. Results showed that TCS for the Y₁, Y₂, and the Y₃ age groups were 323.64, 240.66 and 174.60 Mg ha^-1, respectively. The average TCS of the three age groups was 255.65 Mg C ha^-1, with above-ground biomass, below-ground biomass, litter, and soil in the top 0.6 m contributing 15.0%, 3.7%, 12.1%, and 69.2%, respectively. CS in soil and TCS of the Y₁ age group both significantly exceeded those of the Y₃ age group (P < 0.05). Contrary to other recent findings, the present study supports the hypothesis that TCS is likely to decrease as stand age increases. This indicates that natural resource managers should rejuvenate forests by routinely thinning older stands, thereby not only achieving vegetation restoration, but also allowing these stands to create a long-term carbon sink for this important eco-region.

Land-use emissions play a critical role in land-based mitigation for Paris climate targets

Scenarios that limit global warming to below 2 °C by 2100 assume significant land-use change to support large-scale carbon dioxide (CO₂) removal from the atmosphere by afforestation/reforestation, avoided deforestation, and Biomass Energy with Carbon Capture and Storage (BECCS). The more ambitious mitigation scenarios require even greater land area for mitigation and/or earlier adoption of CO₂ removal strategies. Here we show that additional land-use change to meet a 1.5 °C climate change target could result in net losses of carbon from the land. The effectiveness of BECCS strongly depends on several assumptions related to the choice of biomass, the fate of initial above ground biomass, and the fossil-fuel emissions offset in the energy system. Depending on these factors, carbon removed from the atmosphere through BECCS could easily be offset by losses due to land-use change. If BECCS involves replacing high-carbon content ecosystems with crops, then forest-based mitigation could be more efficient for atmospheric CO₂ removal than BECCS.

Land-based mitigation for meeting the Paris climate target must consider the carbon cycle impacts of land-use change. Here the authors show that when bioenergy crops replace high carbon content ecosystems, forest-based mitigation could be more effective for CO₂ removal than bioenergy crops with carbon capture and storage.