1
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Gincheva A, Pausas JG, Edwards A, Provenzale A, Cerdà A, Hanes C, Royé D, Chuvieco E, Mouillot F, Vissio G, Rodrigo J, Bedía J, Abatzoglou JT, Senciales González JM, Short KC, Baudena M, Llasat MC, Magnani M, Boer MM, González ME, Torres-Vázquez MÁ, Fiorucci P, Jacklyn P, Libonati R, Trigo RM, Herrera S, Jerez S, Wang X, Turco M. A monthly gridded burned area database of national wildland fire data. Sci Data 2024; 11:352. [PMID: 38589374 PMCID: PMC11002030 DOI: 10.1038/s41597-024-03141-2] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/31/2023] [Accepted: 03/14/2024] [Indexed: 04/10/2024] Open
Abstract
We assembled the first gridded burned area (BA) database of national wildfire data (ONFIRE), a comprehensive and integrated resource for researchers, non-government organisations, and government agencies analysing wildfires in various regions of the Earth. We extracted and harmonised records from different regions and sources using open and reproducible methods, providing data in a common framework for the whole period available (starting from 1950 in Australia, 1959 in Canada, 1985 in Chile, 1980 in Europe, and 1984 in the United States) up to 2021 on a common 1° × 1° grid. The data originate from national agencies (often, ground mapping), thus representing the best local expert knowledge. Key opportunities and limits in using this dataset are discussed as well as possible future expansions of this open-source approach that should be explored. This dataset complements existing gridded BA data based on remote sensing and offers a valuable opportunity to better understand and assess fire regime changes, and their drivers, in these regions. The ONFIRE database can be freely accessed at https://zenodo.org/record/8289245 .
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Affiliation(s)
- Andrina Gincheva
- Regional Atmospheric Modelling (MAR) Group, Department of Physics, Regional Campus of International Excellence Campus Mare Nostrum (CEIR), University of Murcia, Murcia, Spain.
| | - Juli G Pausas
- Centro de Investigaciones sobre Desertificación, Spanish National Research Council (CIDE-CSIC), Valencia, Spain
| | - Andrew Edwards
- Darwin Centre for Bushfire Research, Charles Darwin University, Darwin, Northern Territory, Australia
| | - Antonello Provenzale
- Institute of Geosciences and Earth Resources - National Research Council of Italy (CNR-IGG), Turin, Italy
- National Biodiversity Future Center, Palermo, Italy
| | - Artemi Cerdà
- Soil Erosion and Degradation Research Group, Department of Geography, Valencia University, Valencia, Spain
| | - Chelene Hanes
- Great Lakes Forestry Centre, Canadian Forest Service, Natural Resources Canada, Sault Ste. Marie, Ontario, Canada
| | - Dominic Royé
- Climate Research Foundation (FIC), Madrid, Spain
| | - Emilio Chuvieco
- Universidad de Alcalá, Environmental Remote Sensing Research Group, Department of Geology, Geography and the Environment, Alcalá de Henares, Spain
| | - Florent Mouillot
- UMR CEFE, Université de Montpellier, CNRS, EPHE, IRD, Montpellier, France
| | - Gabriele Vissio
- Institute of Geosciences and Earth Resources - National Research Council of Italy (CNR-IGG), Turin, Italy
- National Biodiversity Future Center, Palermo, Italy
| | - Jesús Rodrigo
- Departamento de Análisis Geográfico Regional y Geografía Física, Facultad de Filosofía y Letras, Campus Universitario de Cartuja, Universidad de Granada, Granada, Spain
| | - Joaquin Bedía
- Departamento Matemática Aplicada y Ciencias de la Computación (MACC), Universidad de Cantabria, Santander, Spain
- Grupo de Meteorología y Computación, Universidad de Cantabria, Unidad Asociada al CSIC, Santander, Spain
| | - John T Abatzoglou
- Management of Complex Systems, University of California, Merced, USA
| | | | - Karen C Short
- Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Missoula Fire Sciences Laboratory, Missoula, Montana, USA
| | - Mara Baudena
- National Biodiversity Future Center, Palermo, Italy
- Institute of Atmospheric Sciences and Climate, National Research Council of Italy (CNR- ISAC), Torino, Italy
| | - Maria Carmen Llasat
- GAMA, Department of Applied Physics, Universitat de Barcelona, Barcelona, Spain
| | - Marta Magnani
- Institute of Geosciences and Earth Resources - National Research Council of Italy (CNR-IGG), Turin, Italy
- National Biodiversity Future Center, Palermo, Italy
| | - Matthias M Boer
- Hawkesbury Institute for the Environment, Western Sydney University, Penrith, NSW, Australia
- NSW Bushfire and Natural Hazards Research Centre, Richmond, NSW, Australia
| | - Mauro E González
- Instituto de Conservación, Biodiversidad y Territorio, Facultad de Ciencias Forestales y Recursos Naturales, Universidad Austral de Chile, Valdivia, Chile
- Center for Climate and Resilience Research (CR2), Santiago, Chile
| | - Miguel Ángel Torres-Vázquez
- Regional Atmospheric Modelling (MAR) Group, Department of Physics, Regional Campus of International Excellence Campus Mare Nostrum (CEIR), University of Murcia, Murcia, Spain
| | | | - Peter Jacklyn
- Darwin Centre for Bushfire Research, Charles Darwin University, Darwin, Northern Territory, Australia
| | - Renata Libonati
- Instituto de Geociências, Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
| | - Ricardo M Trigo
- Instituto Dom Luiz (IDL), Faculdade de Ciências, Universidade de Lisboa, Lisbon, Portugal
| | - Sixto Herrera
- Applied Mathematics and Computer Science Department Universidad de Cantabria, Santander, Spain
| | - Sonia Jerez
- Regional Atmospheric Modelling (MAR) Group, Department of Physics, Regional Campus of International Excellence Campus Mare Nostrum (CEIR), University of Murcia, Murcia, Spain
| | - Xianli Wang
- Northern Forestry Centre, Canadian Forest Service, Natural Resources Canada, Edmonton, AB, Canada
| | - Marco Turco
- Regional Atmospheric Modelling (MAR) Group, Department of Physics, Regional Campus of International Excellence Campus Mare Nostrum (CEIR), University of Murcia, Murcia, Spain
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2
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Luo K, Wang X, de Jong M, Flannigan M. Drought triggers and sustains overnight fires in North America. Nature 2024; 627:321-327. [PMID: 38480963 DOI: 10.1038/s41586-024-07028-5] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/04/2023] [Accepted: 01/04/2024] [Indexed: 03/17/2024]
Abstract
Overnight fires are emerging in North America with previously unknown drivers and implications. This notable phenomenon challenges the traditional understanding of the 'active day, quiet night' model of the diurnal fire cycle1-3 and current fire management practices4,5. Here we demonstrate that drought conditions promote overnight burning, which is a key mechanism fostering large active fires. We examined the hourly diurnal cycle of 23,557 fires and identified 1,095 overnight burning events (OBEs, each defined as a night when a fire burned through the night) in North America during 2017-2020 using geostationary satellite data and terrestrial fire records. A total of 99% of OBEs were associated with large fires (>1,000 ha) and at least one OBE was identified in 20% of these large fires. OBEs were early onset after ignition and OBE frequency was positively correlated with fire size. Although warming is weakening the climatological barrier to night-time fires6, we found that the main driver of recent OBEs in large fires was the accumulated fuel dryness and availability (that is, drought conditions), which tended to lead to consecutive OBEs in a single wildfire for several days and even weeks. Critically, we show that daytime drought indicators can predict whether an OBE will occur the following night, which could facilitate early detection and management of night-time fires. We also observed increases in fire weather conditions conducive to OBEs over recent decades, suggesting an accelerated disruption of the diurnal fire cycle.
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Affiliation(s)
- Kaiwei Luo
- Department of Renewable Resources, University of Alberta, Edmonton, Alberta, Canada.
| | - Xianli Wang
- Department of Renewable Resources, University of Alberta, Edmonton, Alberta, Canada.
- Natural Resources Canada, Canadian Forest Service, Northern Forestry Centre, Edmonton, Alberta, Canada.
| | - Mark de Jong
- Natural Resources Canada, Canadian Forest Service, Great Lakes Forestry Centre, Sault Ste. Marie, Ontario, Canada
| | - Mike Flannigan
- Department of Renewable Resources, University of Alberta, Edmonton, Alberta, Canada
- Department of Natural Resource Science, Faculty of Science, Thompson Rivers University, Kamloops, British Columbia, Canada
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3
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Wei P, Lamont B, He T, Xue W, Wang PC, Song W, Zhang R, Keyhani AB, Zhao S, Lu W, Dong F, Gao R, Yu J, Huang Y, Tang L, Lu K, Ma J, Xiong Z, Chen L, Wan N, Wang B, He W, Teng M, Dian Y, Wang Y, Zeng L, Lin C, Dai M, Zhou Z, Xiao W, Yan Z. Vegetation-fire feedbacks increase subtropical wildfire risk in scrubland and reduce it in forests. JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL MANAGEMENT 2024; 351:119726. [PMID: 38052142 DOI: 10.1016/j.jenvman.2023.119726] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/02/2023] [Revised: 11/20/2023] [Accepted: 11/25/2023] [Indexed: 12/07/2023]
Abstract
Climate dictates wildfire activity around the world. But East and Southeast Asia are an apparent exception as fire-activity variation there is unrelated to climatic variables. In subtropical China, fire activity decreased by 80% between 2003 and 2020 amid increased fire risks globally. Here, we assessed the fire regime, vegetation structure, fuel flammability and their interactions across subtropical Hubei, China. We show that tree basal area (TBA) and fuel flammability explained 60% of fire-frequency variance. Fire frequency and fuel flammability, in turn, explained 90% of TBA variance. These results reveal a novel system of scrubland-forest stabilized by vegetation-fire feedbacks. Frequent fires promote the persistence of derelict scrubland through positive vegetation-fire feedbacks; in forest, vegetation-fire feedbacks are negative and suppress fire. Thus, we attribute the decrease in wildfire activity to reforestation programs that concurrently increase forest coverage and foster negative vegetation-fire feedbacks that suppress wildfire.
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Affiliation(s)
- P Wei
- Department of Forestry, College of Horticulture and Forestry, Huazhong Agricultural University, Wuhan, 430070, Hubei, China.
| | - B Lamont
- Ecology Section, School of Molecular and Life Sciences, Curtin University, Perth, WA 6845, Australia.
| | - T He
- College of Science Engineering & Education, Murdoch University, Murdoch, WA 6150, Australia.
| | - W Xue
- Department of Forestry, College of Horticulture and Forestry, Huazhong Agricultural University, Wuhan, 430070, Hubei, China.
| | - P C Wang
- Department of Forestry, College of Horticulture and Forestry, Huazhong Agricultural University, Wuhan, 430070, Hubei, China.
| | - W Song
- College of Agronomy, Northwest Agriculture & Forestry University, Xianyang, 712100, China.
| | - R Zhang
- Department of Forestry, College of Horticulture and Forestry, Huazhong Agricultural University, Wuhan, 430070, Hubei, China.
| | - A B Keyhani
- Department of Forestry, College of Horticulture and Forestry, Huazhong Agricultural University, Wuhan, 430070, Hubei, China.
| | - S Zhao
- Department of Forestry, College of Horticulture and Forestry, Huazhong Agricultural University, Wuhan, 430070, Hubei, China.
| | - W Lu
- Department of Forestry, College of Horticulture and Forestry, Huazhong Agricultural University, Wuhan, 430070, Hubei, China.
| | - F Dong
- Department of Forestry, College of Horticulture and Forestry, Huazhong Agricultural University, Wuhan, 430070, Hubei, China.
| | - R Gao
- Department of Forestry, College of Horticulture and Forestry, Huazhong Agricultural University, Wuhan, 430070, Hubei, China.
| | - J Yu
- Department of Forestry, College of Horticulture and Forestry, Huazhong Agricultural University, Wuhan, 430070, Hubei, China.
| | - Y Huang
- Department of Forestry, College of Horticulture and Forestry, Huazhong Agricultural University, Wuhan, 430070, Hubei, China.
| | - L Tang
- Department of Forestry, College of Horticulture and Forestry, Huazhong Agricultural University, Wuhan, 430070, Hubei, China.
| | - K Lu
- Hubei Forestry Survey and Design Institute, East Lake Science and Technology, District, Wuhan, 430074, Hubei, China.
| | - J Ma
- Hubei Forestry Survey and Design Institute, East Lake Science and Technology, District, Wuhan, 430074, Hubei, China.
| | - Z Xiong
- Department of Forestry, College of Horticulture and Forestry, Huazhong Agricultural University, Wuhan, 430070, Hubei, China.
| | - L Chen
- Department of Forestry, College of Horticulture and Forestry, Huazhong Agricultural University, Wuhan, 430070, Hubei, China.
| | - N Wan
- Department of Forestry, College of Horticulture and Forestry, Huazhong Agricultural University, Wuhan, 430070, Hubei, China.
| | - B Wang
- Department of Forestry, College of Horticulture and Forestry, Huazhong Agricultural University, Wuhan, 430070, Hubei, China.
| | - W He
- Department of Forestry, College of Horticulture and Forestry, Huazhong Agricultural University, Wuhan, 430070, Hubei, China.
| | - M Teng
- Department of Forestry, College of Horticulture and Forestry, Huazhong Agricultural University, Wuhan, 430070, Hubei, China.
| | - Y Dian
- Department of Forestry, College of Horticulture and Forestry, Huazhong Agricultural University, Wuhan, 430070, Hubei, China.
| | - Y Wang
- Department of Forestry, College of Horticulture and Forestry, Huazhong Agricultural University, Wuhan, 430070, Hubei, China.
| | - L Zeng
- Key Laboratory of Forest Ecology and Environment, Chinese Academy of Forestry, Beijing, 100091, China.
| | - C Lin
- Hubei Forestry Survey and Design Institute, East Lake Science and Technology, District, Wuhan, 430074, Hubei, China.
| | - M Dai
- Hubei Forestry Survey and Design Institute, East Lake Science and Technology, District, Wuhan, 430074, Hubei, China.
| | - Z Zhou
- Department of Forestry, College of Horticulture and Forestry, Huazhong Agricultural University, Wuhan, 430070, Hubei, China.
| | - W Xiao
- Key Laboratory of Forest Ecology and Environment, Chinese Academy of Forestry, Beijing, 100091, China.
| | - Z Yan
- Department of Forestry, College of Horticulture and Forestry, Huazhong Agricultural University, Wuhan, 430070, Hubei, China.
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4
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Buonanduci MS, Donato DC, Halofsky JS, Kennedy MC, Harvey BJ. Consistent spatial scaling of high-severity wildfire can inform expected future patterns of burn severity. Ecol Lett 2023; 26:1687-1699. [PMID: 37340949 DOI: 10.1111/ele.14282] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/21/2023] [Revised: 06/08/2023] [Accepted: 06/09/2023] [Indexed: 06/22/2023]
Abstract
Increasing wildfire activity in forests worldwide has driven urgency in understanding current and future fire regimes. Spatial patterns of area burned at high severity strongly shape forest resilience and constitute a key dimension of fire regimes, yet remain difficult to predict. To characterize the range of burn severity patterns expected within contemporary fire regimes, we quantified scaling relationships relating fire size to patterns of burn severity. Using 1615 fires occurring across the Northwest United States between 1985 and 2020, we evaluated scaling relationships within fire regimes and tested whether relationships vary across space and time. Patterns of high-severity fire demonstrate consistent scaling behaviour; as fire size increases, high-severity patches consistently increase in size and homogeneity. Scaling relationships did not differ substantially across space or time at the scales considered here, suggesting that as fire-size distributions potentially shift, stationarity in patch-size scaling can be used to infer future patterns of burn severity.
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Affiliation(s)
- Michele S Buonanduci
- Quantitative Ecology and Resource Management, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington, USA
- School of Environmental and Forest Sciences, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington, USA
| | - Daniel C Donato
- School of Environmental and Forest Sciences, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington, USA
- Washington State Department of Natural Resources, Olympia, Washington, USA
| | - Joshua S Halofsky
- School of Environmental and Forest Sciences, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington, USA
- Washington State Department of Natural Resources, Olympia, Washington, USA
| | - Maureen C Kennedy
- School of Interdisciplinary Arts and Sciences, University of Washington (Tacoma), Tacoma, Washington, USA
| | - Brian J Harvey
- Quantitative Ecology and Resource Management, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington, USA
- School of Environmental and Forest Sciences, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington, USA
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5
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Lecina-Diaz J, Chas-Amil ML, Aquilué N, Sil Â, Brotons L, Regos A, Touza J. Incorporating fire-smartness into agricultural policies reduces suppression costs and ecosystem services damages from wildfires. JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL MANAGEMENT 2023; 337:117707. [PMID: 36989920 DOI: 10.1016/j.jenvman.2023.117707] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/20/2022] [Revised: 02/17/2023] [Accepted: 03/07/2023] [Indexed: 06/19/2023]
Abstract
In southern Europe, land abandonment and an unbalanced investment toward fire suppression instead of prevention has gradually increased wildfire risk, which calls for a paradigm change in fire management policies. Here we combined scenario analysis, fire landscape modelling, and economic tools to identify which land-use policies would reduce the expected wildfire-related losses in the Transboundary Biosphere Reserve 'Gerês-Xurés' (Spain-Portugal). To do so, we applied the least-cost-plus-net-value-change approach and estimated net changes in wildfire damages based on their implications for the 2010-2050 period and five ecosystem services: agriculture, pasture, timber, recreation and climate regulation. Four land-use scenarios were considered: (1) Business as Usual (BAU); (2) fire-smart, fostering more fire-resistant (less flammable) and/or fire-resilient landscapes (fire-smart); (3) High Nature Value farmlands (HNVf), wherein the abandonment of extensive agriculture is reversed; and (4) a combination of HNVf and fire-smart. HNVf is the best scenario for suppression cost savings, but it generates the lowest net present value of societal benefits from climate regulation. In fact, the most efficient scenario with the lowest societal discounted net suppression costs and change on ecosystem services damages is the HNVf + fire-smart scenario, as it also generates suppression cost savings from agricultural expansion, and lead to a significant reduction in damages on timber and recreational benefits. Therefore, reverting land abandonment through recultivation and promoting fire-resistant tree species is the most efficient way to reduce wildfire hazard. In this sense, payments for ecosystem services should reward farmers and landowners for their role in wildfire prevention. This study improves the understanding of the financial and societal benefits derived from reducing fire suppression spending and ecosystem services damage by undertaking fire-smart land-use strategies, which can be essential to enhance local stakeholders' support for Payments of Ecosystem Services policies for wildfire prevention.
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Affiliation(s)
- Judit Lecina-Diaz
- Technical University of Munich, TUM School of Life Sciences, Ecosystem Dynamics and Forest Management Group, Hans-Carl-von-Carlowitz-Platz 2, 85354, Freising, Germany; CIBIO, Centro de Investigação em Biodiversidade e Recursos Genéticos, InBIO Laboratório Associado, Campus de Vairão, Universidade do Porto, 4485-661, Vairão, Portugal; BIOPOLIS Program in Genomics, Biodiversity and Land Planning, CIBIO, Campus de Vairão, 4485-661, Vairão, Portugal.
| | - María-Luisa Chas-Amil
- Department of Quantitative Economics, Universidade de Santiago de Compostela, 15782, Santiago de Compostela, Spain
| | - Núria Aquilué
- Centre de Ciència i Tecnologia Forestal de Catalunya (CTFC), Ctra. St. Llorenç de Morunys km 2, Solsona, 25280, Spain; Centre for Forest Research (CFR), Université du Québec à Montréal (UQAM), C.P. 8888, succ. Centre-Ville, Montréal, QC, H3C 3P8, Canada
| | - Ângelo Sil
- CIBIO, Centro de Investigação em Biodiversidade e Recursos Genéticos, InBIO Laboratório Associado, Campus de Vairão, Universidade do Porto, 4485-661, Vairão, Portugal; BIOPOLIS Program in Genomics, Biodiversity and Land Planning, CIBIO, Campus de Vairão, 4485-661, Vairão, Portugal; CITAB - Centro de Investigação e de Tecnologias Agro-Ambientais e Biológicas, Universidade de Trás-os-Montes e Alto Douro, 5001-801, Portugal; CIMO - Centro de Investigação de Montanha (CIMO), Instituto Politécnico de Bragança, Campus de Santa Apolónia, 5300-253, Bragança, Portugal
| | - Lluís Brotons
- Centre de Ciència i Tecnologia Forestal de Catalunya (CTFC), Ctra. St. Llorenç de Morunys km 2, Solsona, 25280, Spain; CREAF, Cerdanyola del Vallès, Barcelona, Spain; CSIC, Cerdanyola del Vallès, Barcelona, Spain
| | - Adrián Regos
- CIBIO, Centro de Investigação em Biodiversidade e Recursos Genéticos, InBIO Laboratório Associado, Campus de Vairão, Universidade do Porto, 4485-661, Vairão, Portugal; BIOPOLIS Program in Genomics, Biodiversity and Land Planning, CIBIO, Campus de Vairão, 4485-661, Vairão, Portugal; Centre de Ciència i Tecnologia Forestal de Catalunya (CTFC), Ctra. St. Llorenç de Morunys km 2, Solsona, 25280, Spain; Departamento de Zooloxía, Xenética e Antropoloxía Física, Universidade de Santiago de Compostela, Santiago de Compostela, Spain
| | - Julia Touza
- Department of Environment and Geography and York Environmental Sustainability Institute, University of York, Heslington, York, YO10 5NG, UK
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6
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Abel C, Abdi AM, Tagesson T, Horion S, Fensholt R. Contrasting ecosystem vegetation response in global drylands under drying and wetting conditions. GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY 2023; 29:3954-3969. [PMID: 37103433 DOI: 10.1111/gcb.16745] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/01/2022] [Accepted: 03/26/2023] [Indexed: 05/10/2023]
Abstract
Increasing aridity is one major consequence of ongoing global climate change and is expected to cause widespread changes in key ecosystem attributes, functions, and dynamics. This is especially the case in naturally vulnerable ecosystems, such as drylands. While we have an overall understanding of past aridity trends, the linkage between temporal dynamics in aridity and dryland ecosystem responses remain largely unknown. Here, we examined recent trends in aridity over the past two decades within global drylands as a basis for exploring the response of ecosystem state variables associated with land and atmosphere processes (e.g., vegetation cover, vegetation functioning, soil water availability, land cover, burned area, and vapor-pressure deficit) to these trends. We identified five clusters, characterizing spatiotemporal patterns in aridity between 2000 and 2020. Overall, we observe that 44.5% of all areas are getting dryer, 31.6% getting wetter, and 23.8% have no trends in aridity. Our results show strongest correlations between trends in ecosystem state variables and aridity in clusters with increasing aridity, which matches expectations of systemic acclimatization of the ecosystem to a reduction in water availability/water stress. Trends in vegetation (expressed by leaf area index [LAI]) are affected differently by potential driving factors (e.g., environmental, and climatic factors, soil properties, and population density) in areas experiencing water-related stress as compared to areas not exposed to water-related stress. Canopy height for example, has a positive impact on trends in LAI when the system is stressed but does not impact the trends in non-stressed systems. Conversely, opposite relationships were found for soil parameters such as root-zone water storage capacity and organic carbon density. How potential driving factors impact dryland vegetation differently depending on water-related stress (or no stress) is important, for example within management strategies to maintain and restore dryland vegetation.
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Affiliation(s)
- Christin Abel
- Department of Geosciences and Natural Resource Management, University of Copenhagen, Copenhagen, Denmark
| | - Abdulhakim M Abdi
- Department of Geosciences and Natural Resource Management, University of Copenhagen, Copenhagen, Denmark
- Centre for Environmental and Climate Science, Lund University, Lund, Sweden
| | - Torbern Tagesson
- Department of Geosciences and Natural Resource Management, University of Copenhagen, Copenhagen, Denmark
- Department of Physical Geography and Ecosystem Science, Lund University, Lund, Sweden
| | - Stephanie Horion
- Department of Geosciences and Natural Resource Management, University of Copenhagen, Copenhagen, Denmark
| | - Rasmus Fensholt
- Department of Geosciences and Natural Resource Management, University of Copenhagen, Copenhagen, Denmark
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7
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Huang C, Li S, He HS, Liang Y, Xu W, Wu MM, Wu Z, Huang C, Chen F. Effects of forest management practices on carbon dynamics of China's boreal forests under changing climates. JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL MANAGEMENT 2023; 335:117497. [PMID: 36812687 DOI: 10.1016/j.jenvman.2023.117497] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/23/2022] [Revised: 02/06/2023] [Accepted: 02/10/2023] [Indexed: 06/18/2023]
Abstract
Climate change and forest management practices influence forest productivity and carbon budgets, and understanding their interactions is necessary to develop accurate predictions of carbon dynamics as many countries in the world strive towards carbon neutrality. Here, we developed a model-coupling framework to simulate the carbon dynamics of boreal forests in China. The expected dynamics of forest recovery and change following intense timber harvesting in the recent past and projected carbon dynamics into the future under different climate change scenarios and forest management practices (e.g., restoration, afforestation, tending, and fuel management). We predict that under current management strategies, climate change would lead to increased fire frequency and intensity, eventually shifting these forests from carbon sinks towards being carbon sources. This study suggests that future boreal forest management should be altered to reduce the probability of fire occurrence and carbon losses caused by catastrophic fires through planting deciduous species, mechanical removal, and prescribed fire.
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Affiliation(s)
- Chao Huang
- Key Laboratory of National Forestry and Grassland Administration on Forest Ecosystem Protection and Restoration of Poyang Lake Watershed, College of Forestry, Jiangxi Agricultural University, Nanchang, 330045, China; CAS Key Laboratory of Forest Ecology and Management, Institute of Applied Ecology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Shenyang, 110016, China.
| | - Shun Li
- Key Laboratory of Poyang Lake Wetland and Watershed Research, Ministry of Education, Jiangxi Normal University, Nanchang, 330022, PR China.
| | - Hong S He
- School of Natural Resources, University of Missouri, 203 ABNR Building, Columbia, MO, 65211, USA
| | - Yu Liang
- CAS Key Laboratory of Forest Ecology and Management, Institute of Applied Ecology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Shenyang, 110016, China
| | - Wenru Xu
- School of Natural Resources, University of Missouri, 203 ABNR Building, Columbia, MO, 65211, USA
| | - Mia M Wu
- CAS Key Laboratory of Forest Ecology and Management, Institute of Applied Ecology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Shenyang, 110016, China
| | - Zhiwei Wu
- Key Laboratory of Poyang Lake Wetland and Watershed Research, Ministry of Education, Jiangxi Normal University, Nanchang, 330022, PR China
| | - Cheng Huang
- Key Laboratory of National Forestry and Grassland Administration on Forest Ecosystem Protection and Restoration of Poyang Lake Watershed, College of Forestry, Jiangxi Agricultural University, Nanchang, 330045, China
| | - Fusheng Chen
- Key Laboratory of National Forestry and Grassland Administration on Forest Ecosystem Protection and Restoration of Poyang Lake Watershed, College of Forestry, Jiangxi Agricultural University, Nanchang, 330045, China
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8
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Collins L, Trouvé R, Baker PJ, Cirulus B, Nitschke CR, Nolan RH, Smith L, Penman TD. Fuel reduction burning reduces wildfire severity during extreme fire events in south-eastern Australia. JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL MANAGEMENT 2023; 343:118171. [PMID: 37245307 DOI: 10.1016/j.jenvman.2023.118171] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/08/2023] [Revised: 05/10/2023] [Accepted: 05/12/2023] [Indexed: 05/30/2023]
Abstract
Extreme fire events have increased across south-eastern Australia owing to warmer and drier conditions driven by anthropogenic climate change. Fuel reduction burning is widely applied to reduce the occurrence and severity of wildfires; however, targeted assessment of the effectiveness of this practice is limited, especially under extreme climatic conditions. Our study utilises fire severity atlases for fuel reduction burns and wildfires to examine: (i) patterns in the extent of fuel treatment within planned burns (i.e., burn coverage) across different fire management zones, and; (ii) the effect of fuel reduction burning on the severity of wildfires under extreme climatic conditions. We assessed the effect of fuel reduction burning on wildfire severity across temporal and spatial scales (i.e., point and local landscape), while accounting for burn coverage and fire weather. Fuel reduction burn coverage was substantially lower (∼20-30%) than desired targets in fuel management zones focused on asset protection, but within the desired range in zones that focus on ecological objectives. At the point scale, wildfire severity was moderated in treated areas for at least 2-3 years after fuel treatment in shrubland and 3-5 years in forests, relative to areas that did not receive fuel reduction treatments (i.e., unburnt patches). Fuel availability strongly limited fire occurrence and severity within the first 18 months of fuel reduction burning, irrespective of fire weather. Fire weather was the dominant driver of high severity canopy defoliating fire by ∼3-5 years after fuel treatment. At the local landscape scale (i.e., 250 ha), the extent of high canopy scorch decreased marginally as the extent of recently (<5 years) treated fuels increased, though there was a high level of uncertainty around the effect of recent fuel treatment. Our findings demonstrate that during extreme fire events, very recent (i.e., <3 years) fuel reduction burning can aid wildfire suppression locally (i.e., near assets) but will have a highly variable effect on the extent and severity of wildfires at larger scales. The patchy coverage of fuel reduction burns in the wildland-urban interface indicates that considerable residual fuel hazard will often be present within the bounds of fuel reduction burns.
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Affiliation(s)
- L Collins
- Pacific Forestry Centre, Canadian Forest Service, Natural Resources Canada, 506 Burnside Road West, Victoria, BC, V8Z 1M5, Canada; Department of Environment and Genetics, La Trobe University, Bundoora, Victoria, 3086, Australia.
| | - R Trouvé
- School of Ecosystem and Forest Sciences, University of Melbourne, Parkville, Victoria, 3010, Australia
| | - P J Baker
- School of Ecosystem and Forest Sciences, University of Melbourne, Parkville, Victoria, 3010, Australia
| | - B Cirulus
- School of Ecosystem and Forest Sciences, University of Melbourne, Creswick, Victoria, 3363, Australia
| | - C R Nitschke
- School of Ecosystem and Forest Sciences, University of Melbourne, Parkville, Victoria, 3010, Australia
| | - R H Nolan
- Hawkesbury Institute for the Environment, Western Sydney University, Penrith, New South Wales, 2751, Australia; NSW Bushfire Risk Management Research Hub, Wollongong, New South Wales, Australia
| | - L Smith
- Forest Fire and Regions, Department of Energy, Environment and Climate Action, 1 Licola Rd, Heyfield, Victoria, 3858, Australia
| | - T D Penman
- School of Ecosystem and Forest Sciences, University of Melbourne, Creswick, Victoria, 3363, Australia
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9
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Barnes PW, Robson TM, Zepp RG, Bornman JF, Jansen MAK, Ossola R, Wang QW, Robinson SA, Foereid B, Klekociuk AR, Martinez-Abaigar J, Hou WC, Mackenzie R, Paul ND. Interactive effects of changes in UV radiation and climate on terrestrial ecosystems, biogeochemical cycles, and feedbacks to the climate system. Photochem Photobiol Sci 2023; 22:1049-1091. [PMID: 36723799 PMCID: PMC9889965 DOI: 10.1007/s43630-023-00376-7] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/22/2022] [Accepted: 01/13/2023] [Indexed: 02/02/2023]
Abstract
Terrestrial organisms and ecosystems are being exposed to new and rapidly changing combinations of solar UV radiation and other environmental factors because of ongoing changes in stratospheric ozone and climate. In this Quadrennial Assessment, we examine the interactive effects of changes in stratospheric ozone, UV radiation and climate on terrestrial ecosystems and biogeochemical cycles in the context of the Montreal Protocol. We specifically assess effects on terrestrial organisms, agriculture and food supply, biodiversity, ecosystem services and feedbacks to the climate system. Emphasis is placed on the role of extreme climate events in altering the exposure to UV radiation of organisms and ecosystems and the potential effects on biodiversity. We also address the responses of plants to increased temporal variability in solar UV radiation, the interactive effects of UV radiation and other climate change factors (e.g. drought, temperature) on crops, and the role of UV radiation in driving the breakdown of organic matter from dead plant material (i.e. litter) and biocides (pesticides and herbicides). Our assessment indicates that UV radiation and climate interact in various ways to affect the structure and function of terrestrial ecosystems, and that by protecting the ozone layer, the Montreal Protocol continues to play a vital role in maintaining healthy, diverse ecosystems on land that sustain life on Earth. Furthermore, the Montreal Protocol and its Kigali Amendment are mitigating some of the negative environmental consequences of climate change by limiting the emissions of greenhouse gases and protecting the carbon sequestration potential of vegetation and the terrestrial carbon pool.
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Affiliation(s)
- P W Barnes
- Biological Sciences and Environment Program, Loyola University New Orleans, New Orleans, USA.
| | - T M Robson
- Organismal & Evolutionary Biology (OEB), Faculty of Biological and Environmental Sciences, Viikki Plant Sciences Centre (ViPS), University of Helsinki, Helsinki, Finland.
- National School of Forestry, University of Cumbria, Ambleside, UK.
| | - R G Zepp
- ORD/CEMM, US Environmental Protection Agency, Athens, GA, USA
| | - J F Bornman
- Food Futures Institute, Murdoch University, Perth, Australia
| | | | - R Ossola
- Atmospheric Chemistry Observations and Modeling Laboratory, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, USA
| | - Q-W Wang
- Institute of Applied Ecology, Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS), Shenyang, China
| | - S A Robinson
- Global Challenges Program & School of Earth, Atmospheric and Life Sciences, Securing Antarctica's Environmental Future, University of Wollongong, Wollongong, Australia
| | - B Foereid
- Environment and Natural Resources, Norwegian Institute of Bioeconomy Research, Ås, Norway
| | - A R Klekociuk
- Antarctic Climate Program, Australian Antarctic Division, Kingston, Australia
| | - J Martinez-Abaigar
- Faculty of Science and Technology, University of La Rioja, Logroño (La Rioja), Spain
| | - W-C Hou
- Department of Environmental Engineering, National Cheng Kung University, Tainan City, Taiwan
| | - R Mackenzie
- Cape Horn International Center (CHIC), Puerto Williams, Chile
- Millennium Institute Biodiversity of Antarctic and Subantarctic Ecosystems (BASE), Santiago, Chile
| | - N D Paul
- Lancaster Environment Centre, Lancaster University, Lancaster, UK
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10
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Baijnath-Rodino JA, Le PVV, Foufoula-Georgiou E, Banerjee T. Historical spatiotemporal changes in fire danger potential across biomes. THE SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT 2023; 870:161954. [PMID: 36736401 DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2023.161954] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/17/2022] [Revised: 01/27/2023] [Accepted: 01/28/2023] [Indexed: 06/18/2023]
Abstract
This study 1) identifies the seasons and biomes that exhibit significant (1980-2019) changes in fire danger potential, as quantified by the Canadian Fire Weather Index (FWI); 2) explores what types of fire behavior potentials may be contributing to changes in fire danger potential, as quantified by the United States Energy Release Component (ERC) and the Ignition Component (IC); 3) provides spatiotemporal insight on how fire danger potential and fire behavior potential are responding in relation to changes in seasonal precipitation totals and seasonal mean air temperature across biomes. Time series of these fire potentials, as well as seasonal mean temperature, and seasonal precipitation totals are generated using data from the 0.25° ECMWF spatial resolution Reanalysis 5th Generation (ERA5) and the Climatic Research Unit gridded Time Series (CRU TS). The Mann-Kendall test is then applied to identify significant spatiotemporal trends across each biome. Results indicate that the September-November season (SON) exhibits the greatest rate of increase in fire danger potential, followed by the June-August season (JJA), December, January-February season (DJF), and March-May season (MAM), and this is predominant over the Tropical and Subtropical Moist Broadleaf Forest Biome, as well as all vegetation types of the temperate biomes. Similarly, the temperate biomes experience the greatest rate of increase in fire intensity potential and ignition potential, but prevalent during the DJF and MAM seasons. Furthermore, there is a significant positive correlation between fire danger potential and seasonal mean air temperature during JJA in the Northern Hemisphere for the temperate biomes in North America and Europe, as well as the Tropical and Subtropical biomes in Africa. Our analysis provides quantitative insight as to how fire danger potential and fire behavior potential have been responding to changes in seasonal mean temperature and seasonal precipitation totals across different ecoregions around the world.
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Affiliation(s)
- Janine A Baijnath-Rodino
- Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of California-Irvine, Irvine, CA, USA.
| | - Phong V V Le
- Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of California-Irvine, Irvine, CA, USA; Faculty of Hydrology Meteorology and Oceanography, University of Science, Vietnam National University, Hanoi, Viet Nam; Environmental Sciences Division, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, TN, USA
| | - Efi Foufoula-Georgiou
- Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of California-Irvine, Irvine, CA, USA; Department of Earth Systems Science, University of California-Irvine, Irvine, CA, USA
| | - Tirtha Banerjee
- Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of California-Irvine, Irvine, CA, USA
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11
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Corona‐Núñez RO, Campo JE. Climate and socioeconomic drivers of biomass burning and carbon emissions from fires in tropical dry forests: A Pantropical analysis. GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY 2023; 29:1062-1079. [PMID: 36345650 PMCID: PMC10098545 DOI: 10.1111/gcb.16516] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/15/2022] [Accepted: 10/09/2022] [Indexed: 06/16/2023]
Abstract
Global burned area has declined by nearly one quarter between 1998 and 2015. Drylands contain a large proportion of these global fires but there are important differences within the drylands, for example, savannas and tropical dry forests (TDF). Savannas, a biome fire-prone and fire-adapted, have reduced the burned area, while the fire in the TDF is one of the most critical factors impacting biodiversity and carbon emissions. Moreover, under climate change scenarios TDF is expected to increase its current extent and raise the risk of fires. Despite regional and global scale effects, and the influence of this ecosystem on the global carbon cycle, little effort has been dedicated to studying the influence of climate (seasonality and extreme events) and socioeconomic conditions of fire regimen in TDF. Here we use the Global Fire Emissions Database and, climate and socioeconomic metrics to better understand long-term factors explaining the variation in burned area and biomass in TDF at Pantropical scale. On average, fires affected 1.4% of the total TDF' area (60,208 km2 ) and burned 24.4% (259.6 Tg) of the global burned biomass annually at Pantropical scales. Climate modulators largely influence local and regional fire regimes. Inter-annual variation in fire regime is shaped by El Niño and La Niña. During the El Niño and the forthcoming year of La Niña, there is an increment in extension (35.2% and 10.3%) and carbon emissions (42.9% and 10.6%). Socioeconomic indicators such as land-management and population were modulators of the size of both, burned area and carbon emissions. Moreover, fires may reduce the capability to reach the target of "half protected species" in the globe, that is, high-severity fires are recorded in ecoregions classified as nature could reach half protected. These observations may contribute to improving fire-management.
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Affiliation(s)
- Rogelio O. Corona‐Núñez
- Instituto de Ecología, Universidad Nacional Autónoma de MéxicoMexico CityMexico
- Facultad de Ciencias, Universidad Nacional Autónoma de MéxicoMexico CityMexico
- Procesos y Sistemas de Información en GeomáticaTlalnepantlaMexico
| | - Julio E. Campo
- Instituto de Ecología, Universidad Nacional Autónoma de MéxicoMexico CityMexico
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12
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Anthropogenic Transformations of Vegetation in the Kuyalnik Estuary Valley (Ukraine, Odesa District). DIVERSITY 2022. [DOI: 10.3390/d14121115] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 12/23/2022]
Abstract
Human influence on the steppe ecosystems of Ukraine caused irreversible loss of biodiversity in the natural zone. Currently, this problem is aggravated by military operations which cover almost half of the steppe zone and are unprecedented in the entire history of their existence. This actualizes the study of vegetation dynamic processes under the influence of the novel anthropogenic factors, and serves as the scientific basis for restoring and preserving steppe vegetation and maintaining its functional stability. The paper highlights anthropogenic changes in vegetation of the Kuyalnik Estuary valley based on long-term comparative phytocenotic surveys and uses of the method of succession series for reconstruction. These changes are representative of the river valleys of the estuaries in the Northern Black Sea region. This work examines vegetation changes induced by runoff overregulation of estuary rivers within the basin, quarrying of sand and limestone, ploughing, grazing, burning, terracing of slopes and their afforestation, excessive mowing of grass stands, and uncontrolled recreation. Subject to the existing anthropogenic impact combined with global climate changes, further vegetation degradation was predicted to occur in the direction of xerophitization and halophitization, reduction in shrubby vegetation areas, degradation of steppe vegetation, and intensification of desertification processes.
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13
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Linked fire activity and climate whiplash in California during the early Holocene. Nat Commun 2022; 13:7175. [PMID: 36418893 PMCID: PMC9684419 DOI: 10.1038/s41467-022-34950-x] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/25/2022] [Accepted: 11/11/2022] [Indexed: 11/24/2022] Open
Abstract
Recent wildfire activity in semi-arid regions like western North America exceeds the range of historical records. High-resolution paleoclimate archives such as stalagmites could illuminate the link between hydroclimate, vegetation change, and fire activity in pre-anthropogenic climate states beyond the timescale of existing tree-ring records. Here we present an analysis of levoglucosan, a combustion-sensitive anhydrosugar, and lignin oxidation products (LOPs) in a stalagmite, reconstructing fire activity and vegetation composition in the California Coast Range across the 8.2 kyr event. Elevated levoglucosan concentrations suggest increased fire activity while altered LOP compositions indicate a shift toward more woody vegetation during the event. These changes are concurrent with increased hydroclimate volatility as shown by carbon and calcium isotope proxies. Together, these records suggest that climate whiplash (oscillations between extreme wetness and aridity) and fire activity in California, both projected to increase with anthropogenic climate change, were tightly coupled during the early Holocene.
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14
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Clarke H, Nolan RH, De Dios VR, Bradstock R, Griebel A, Khanal S, Boer MM. Forest fire threatens global carbon sinks and population centres under rising atmospheric water demand. Nat Commun 2022; 13:7161. [PMID: 36418312 PMCID: PMC9684135 DOI: 10.1038/s41467-022-34966-3] [Citation(s) in RCA: 5] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/21/2021] [Accepted: 11/14/2022] [Indexed: 11/25/2022] Open
Abstract
Levels of fire activity and severity that are unprecedented in the instrumental record have recently been observed in forested regions around the world. Using a large sample of daily fire events and hourly climate data, here we show that fire activity in all global forest biomes responds strongly and predictably to exceedance of thresholds in atmospheric water demand, as measured by maximum daily vapour pressure deficit. The climatology of vapour pressure deficit can therefore be reliably used to predict forest fire risk under projected future climates. We find that climate change is projected to lead to widespread increases in risk, with at least 30 additional days above critical thresholds for fire activity in forest biomes on every continent by 2100 under rising emissions scenarios. Escalating forest fire risk threatens catastrophic carbon losses in the Amazon and major population health impacts from wildfire smoke in south Asia and east Africa.
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Affiliation(s)
- Hamish Clarke
- grid.1007.60000 0004 0486 528XCentre for Environmental Risk Management of Bushfire, Centre for Sustainable Ecosystem Solutions, University of Wollongong, Wollongong, Australia ,NSW Bushfire Risk Management Research Hub, Wollongong, Australia ,grid.1029.a0000 0000 9939 5719Hawkesbury Institute for the Environment, Western Sydney University, Richmond, Australia ,grid.1008.90000 0001 2179 088XSchool of Ecosystem and Forest Sciences, University of Melbourne, Parkville, Australia
| | - Rachael H. Nolan
- NSW Bushfire Risk Management Research Hub, Wollongong, Australia ,grid.1029.a0000 0000 9939 5719Hawkesbury Institute for the Environment, Western Sydney University, Richmond, Australia
| | - Victor Resco De Dios
- grid.15043.330000 0001 2163 1432Department of Crop and Forest Sciences, Universitat de Lleida, Lérida, Spain ,JRU CTFC-AGROTECNIO-Cerca Center, Lérida, Spain ,grid.440649.b0000 0004 1808 3334School of Life Science and Engineering, Southwest University of Science and Technology, Mianyang, China
| | - Ross Bradstock
- grid.1007.60000 0004 0486 528XCentre for Environmental Risk Management of Bushfire, Centre for Sustainable Ecosystem Solutions, University of Wollongong, Wollongong, Australia ,NSW Bushfire Risk Management Research Hub, Wollongong, Australia ,grid.502060.1Applied Bushfire Science Program, NSW Department of Planning, Industry and Environment, Parramatta, Australia
| | - Anne Griebel
- NSW Bushfire Risk Management Research Hub, Wollongong, Australia ,grid.1029.a0000 0000 9939 5719Hawkesbury Institute for the Environment, Western Sydney University, Richmond, Australia
| | - Shiva Khanal
- grid.1029.a0000 0000 9939 5719Hawkesbury Institute for the Environment, Western Sydney University, Richmond, Australia
| | - Matthias M. Boer
- grid.1029.a0000 0000 9939 5719Hawkesbury Institute for the Environment, Western Sydney University, Richmond, Australia
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15
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Wang X, Swystun T, Flannigan MD. Future wildfire extent and frequency determined by the longest fire-conducive weather spell. THE SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT 2022; 830:154752. [PMID: 35339558 DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2022.154752] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/02/2021] [Revised: 03/15/2022] [Accepted: 03/18/2022] [Indexed: 06/14/2023]
Abstract
Great efforts have been made to understand the impacts of a changing climate on fire activity; however, a reliable approach with high prediction confidence has yet to be found. By establishing linkages between the longest duration of fire-conducive weather spell and fire activity parameters, this study projected annual area burned (AAB), annual number of fires (ANF), and annual maximum fire size (MFS) into the future. We found that even though the rates of change differ, the spatial pattern of changes for all three parameters are similar by Canadian ecozone. Areas with the lowest fire activity may see higher rates of change in comparison to high fire activity areas. By end of the century, the changes of AAB and MFS for the study area are projected to be about four and five times that of the baseline respectively, while ANF could almost double.
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Affiliation(s)
- Xianli Wang
- Northern Forestry Centre, Canadian Forest Service, Natural Resources Canada, 5320-122nd Street, Edmonton, AB T6H 3S5, Canada; Department of Renewable Resources, University of Alberta, 751 General Service Building, Edmonton, AB T6G 2H1, Canada.
| | - Tom Swystun
- Great Lakes Forestry Centre, Canadian Forest Service, Natural Resources Canada, 1219 Queen Street East, Sault Ste. Marie, ON P6A 2E5, Canada
| | - Mike D Flannigan
- Department of Renewable Resources, University of Alberta, 751 General Service Building, Edmonton, AB T6G 2H1, Canada
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16
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Global warming is shifting the relationships between fire weather and realized fire-induced CO 2 emissions in Europe. Sci Rep 2022; 12:10365. [PMID: 35725762 PMCID: PMC9209447 DOI: 10.1038/s41598-022-14480-8] [Citation(s) in RCA: 11] [Impact Index Per Article: 5.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/09/2021] [Accepted: 06/07/2022] [Indexed: 11/09/2022] Open
Abstract
Fire activity has significantly changed in Europe over the last decades (1980–2020s), with the emergence of summers attaining unprecedented fire prone weather conditions. Here we report a significant shift in the non-stationary relationship linking fire weather conditions and fire intensity measured in terms of CO2 emissions released during biomass burning across a latitudinal gradient of European IPCC regions. The reported trends indicate that global warming is possibly inducing an incipient change on regional fire dynamics towards increased fire impacts in Europe, suggesting that emerging risks posed by exceptional fire-weather danger conditions may progressively exceed current wildfire suppression capabilities in the next decades and impact forest carbon sinks.
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17
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Touma D, Stevenson S, Swain DL, Singh D, Kalashnikov DA, Huang X. Climate change increases risk of extreme rainfall following wildfire in the western United States. SCIENCE ADVANCES 2022; 8:eabm0320. [PMID: 35363525 PMCID: PMC10938567 DOI: 10.1126/sciadv.abm0320] [Citation(s) in RCA: 10] [Impact Index Per Article: 5.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/23/2021] [Accepted: 02/10/2022] [Indexed: 06/14/2023]
Abstract
Post-wildfire extreme rainfall events can have destructive impacts in the western United States. Using two climate model large ensembles, we assess the future risk of extreme fire weather events being followed by extreme rainfall in this region. By mid-21st century, in a high warming scenario (RCP8.5), we report large increases in the number of extreme fire weather events followed within 1 year by at least one extreme rainfall event. By 2100, the frequency of these compound events increases by 100% in California and 700% in the Pacific Northwest in the Community Earth System Model v1 Large Ensemble. We further project that more than 90% of extreme fire weather events in California, Colorado, and the Pacific Northwest will be followed by at least three spatially colocated extreme rainfall events within five years. Our results point to a future with substantially increased post-fire hydrologic risks across much of the western United States.
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Affiliation(s)
- Danielle Touma
- Bren School of Environmental Science and Management, University of California, Santa Barbara, Santa Barbara, CA, USA
- Climate and Global Dynamics Lab, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, USA
| | - Samantha Stevenson
- Bren School of Environmental Science and Management, University of California, Santa Barbara, Santa Barbara, CA, USA
| | - Daniel L. Swain
- Institute of the Environment and Sustainability, University of California, Los Angeles, Los Angeles, CA, USA
- Capacity Center for Climate and Weather Extremes, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, USA
- The Nature Conservancy of California, San Francisco, CA, USA
| | - Deepti Singh
- School of the Environment, Washington State University, Vancouver, WA, USA
| | | | - Xingying Huang
- Bren School of Environmental Science and Management, University of California, Santa Barbara, Santa Barbara, CA, USA
- Climate and Global Dynamics Lab, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, USA
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18
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Machine learning-based observation-constrained projections reveal elevated global socioeconomic risks from wildfire. Nat Commun 2022; 13:1250. [PMID: 35318306 PMCID: PMC8940959 DOI: 10.1038/s41467-022-28853-0] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/30/2021] [Accepted: 02/04/2022] [Indexed: 11/30/2022] Open
Abstract
Reliable projections of wildfire and associated socioeconomic risks are crucial for the development of efficient and effective adaptation and mitigation strategies. The lack of or limited observational constraints for modeling outputs impairs the credibility of wildfire projections. Here, we present a machine learning framework to constrain the future fire carbon emissions simulated by 13 Earth system models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6), using historical, observed joint states of fire-relevant variables. During the twenty-first century, the observation-constrained ensemble indicates a weaker increase in global fire carbon emissions but higher increase in global wildfire exposure in population, gross domestic production, and agricultural area, compared with the default ensemble. Such elevated socioeconomic risks are primarily caused by the compound regional enhancement of future wildfire activity and socioeconomic development in the western and central African countries, necessitating an emergent strategic preparedness to wildfires in these countries. A new study develops a machine learning framework to observationally constrain CMIP6-simulated fire carbon emissions, finding a weaker increase in 21st-century global fires but higher increase in their socioeconomic risks than previously thought.
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19
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Juang CS, Williams AP, Abatzoglou JT, Balch JK, Hurteau MD, Moritz MA. Rapid Growth of Large Forest Fires Drives the Exponential Response of Annual Forest-Fire Area to Aridity in the Western United States. GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS 2022; 49:e2021GL097131. [PMID: 35866067 PMCID: PMC9286820 DOI: 10.1029/2021gl097131] [Citation(s) in RCA: 8] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/23/2021] [Revised: 01/18/2022] [Accepted: 02/18/2022] [Indexed: 06/01/2023]
Abstract
Annual forest area burned (AFAB) in the western United States (US) has increased as a positive exponential function of rising aridity in recent decades. This non-linear response has important implications for AFAB in a changing climate, yet the cause of the exponential AFAB-aridity relationship has not been given rigorous attention. We investigated the exponential AFAB-aridity relationship in western US forests using a new 1984-2019 database of fire events and 2001-2020 satellite-based records of daily fire growth. While forest-fire frequency and duration grow linearly with aridity, the exponential AFAB-aridity relationship results from the exponential growth rates of individual fires. Larger fires generally have more potential for growth due to more extensive firelines. Thus, forces that promote fire growth, such as aridification, have more potent effects on larger fires. As aridity increases linearly, the potential for growth of large fires accelerates, leading to exponential increases in AFAB.
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Affiliation(s)
- C. S. Juang
- Lamont‐Doherty Earth Observatory of Columbia UniversityPalisadesNYUSA
- Department of Earth and Environmental SciencesColumbia UniversityNew YorkNYUSA
| | - A. P. Williams
- Lamont‐Doherty Earth Observatory of Columbia UniversityPalisadesNYUSA
- Department of GeographyUniversity of California, Los AngelesLos AngelesCAUSA
| | - J. T. Abatzoglou
- Management of Complex Systems DepartmentUniversity of California, MercedMercedCAUSA
| | - J. K. Balch
- Earth LabCooperative Institute for Research in Environmental ScienceUniversity of Colorado BoulderBoulderCOUSA
- Department of GeographyUniversity of Colorado BoulderBoulderCOUSA
| | - M. D. Hurteau
- Biology DepartmentUniversity of New MexicoAlbuquerqueNMUSA
| | - M. A. Moritz
- Cooperative Extension Division of Agriculture and Natural Resources & Bren School of Environmental Science & ManagementUniversity of California, Santa BarbaraSanta BarbaraCAUSA
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20
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Spatial and temporal expansion of global wildland fire activity in response to climate change. Nat Commun 2022; 13:1208. [PMID: 35260561 PMCID: PMC8904637 DOI: 10.1038/s41467-022-28835-2] [Citation(s) in RCA: 19] [Impact Index Per Article: 9.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/12/2021] [Accepted: 02/03/2022] [Indexed: 01/06/2023] Open
Abstract
Global warming is expected to alter wildfire potential and fire season severity, but the magnitude and location of change is still unclear. Here, we show that climate largely determines present fire-prone regions and their fire season. We categorize these regions according to the climatic characteristics of their fire season into four classes, within general Boreal, Temperate, Tropical and Arid climate zones. Based on climate model projections, we assess the modification of the fire-prone regions in extent and fire season length at the end of the 21st century. We find that due to global warming, the global area with frequent fire-prone conditions would increase by 29%, mostly in Boreal (+111%) and Temperate (+25%) zones, where there may also be a significant lengthening of the potential fire season. Our estimates of the global expansion of fire-prone areas highlight the large but uneven impact of a warming climate on Earth’s environment. Global climatic fire-prone regions were identified, assessing possible future climate change impacts. A general spatial expansion of these regions and a frequency increase of the fire-prone conditions are expected, especially in Boreal regions.
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21
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Spatiotemporal Dynamics and Climate Influence of Forest Fires in Fujian Province, China. FORESTS 2022. [DOI: 10.3390/f13030423] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 12/04/2022]
Abstract
Climate determines the spatiotemporal distribution pattern of forest fires by affecting vegetation and the extent of drought. Thus, analyzing the dynamic change of the forest fire season and its response to climate change will play an important role in targeted adjustments of forest fire management policies and practices. In this study, we studied the spatiotemporal variations in forest fire occurrence in Fujian Province, China using the Mann–Kendall trend test and correlation analysis to analyze Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) data from 2001 to 2016 and meteorological data. The results show that forest fire occurrence rose first and then declined over the years, but the proportion of forest fires during the fire prevention period decreased. The forest fires increased significantly in spring and summer, exceeding the forest fires occurring in the fire prevention period in 2010. The spatial distribution of forest fires decreased from northwest to southeast coastal areas, among which the number of forest fires in the northwest mountainous areas was large in autumn and winter. The fire risk weather index was strongly and positively correlated with forest fire occurrence across various sites in the province. The findings accentuate the need for properly adjusting the fire prevention period and resource allocation, strengthening the monitoring and early warning of high fire risk weather, and publicizing wildfire safety in spring and summer. As the forest fire occurrence frequency is high in the western and northwest mountainous areas, more observation towers and forest fire monitoring facilities should be installed.
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22
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Revillini D, David AS, Menges ES, Main KN, Afkhami ME, Searcy CA. Microbiome-mediated response to pulse fire disturbance outweighs the effects of fire legacy on plant performance. THE NEW PHYTOLOGIST 2022; 233:2071-2082. [PMID: 34432894 DOI: 10.1111/nph.17689] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/27/2021] [Accepted: 07/31/2021] [Indexed: 06/13/2023]
Abstract
Fire plays a major role in structuring plant communities across the globe. Interactions with soil microbes impact plant fitness, scaling up to influence plant populations and distributions. Here we present the first factorial manipulation of both fire and soil microbiome presence to investigate their interactive effects on plant performance across a suite of plant species with varying life history traits. We conducted fully factorial experiments on 11 species from the Florida scrub ecosystem to test plant performance responses to soils with varying fire histories (36 soil sources), the presence/absence of a microbiome, and exposure to an experimental burn. Results revealed interactive 'pulse' effects between fire and the soil microbiome on plant performance. On average, post-fire soil microbiomes strongly reduced plant productivity compared to unburned or sterilized soils. Interestingly, longer-term fire 'legacy' effects had minor impacts on plant performance and were unrelated to soil microbiomes. While pulse fire effects on plant-microbiome interactions are short-term, they could have long-term consequences for plant communities by establishing differential microbiome-mediated priority effects during post-disturbance succession. The prominence of pulse fire effects on plant-microbe interactions has even greater import due to expected increases in fire disturbances resulting from anthropogenic climate change.
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Affiliation(s)
- Daniel Revillini
- Department of Biology, University of Miami, 1301 Memorial Drive, Coral Gables, FL, 33146, USA
| | - Aaron S David
- Archbold Biological Station, 123 Main Drive, Venus, FL, 33960, USA
| | - Eric S Menges
- Archbold Biological Station, 123 Main Drive, Venus, FL, 33960, USA
| | - Kevin N Main
- Archbold Biological Station, 123 Main Drive, Venus, FL, 33960, USA
| | - Michelle E Afkhami
- Department of Biology, University of Miami, 1301 Memorial Drive, Coral Gables, FL, 33146, USA
| | - Christopher A Searcy
- Department of Biology, University of Miami, 1301 Memorial Drive, Coral Gables, FL, 33146, USA
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Rao K, Williams AP, Diffenbaugh NS, Yebra M, Konings AG. Plant-water sensitivity regulates wildfire vulnerability. Nat Ecol Evol 2022; 6:332-339. [PMID: 35132185 PMCID: PMC8913365 DOI: 10.1038/s41559-021-01654-2] [Citation(s) in RCA: 6] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/17/2021] [Accepted: 12/17/2021] [Indexed: 11/16/2022]
Abstract
Extreme wildfires extensively impact human health and the environment. Increasing vapour pressure deficit (VPD) has led to a chronic increase in wildfire area in the western United States, yet some regions have been more affected than others. Here we show that for the same increase in VPD, burned area increases more in regions where vegetation moisture shows greater sensitivity to water limitation (plant-water sensitivity; R2 = 0.71). This has led to rapid increases in human exposure to wildfire risk, both because the population living in areas with high plant-water sensitivity grew 50% faster during 1990–2010 than in other wildland–urban interfaces and because VPD has risen most rapidly in these vulnerable areas. As plant-water sensitivity is strongly linked to wildfire vulnerability, accounting for ecophysiological controls should improve wildfire forecasts. If recent trends in VPD and demographic shifts continue, human wildfire risk will probably continue to increase. The authors show that an ecosystem’s sensitivity to drought, measured as the amount of change in vegetation moisture content for a given change in background moisture, predicts the fire hazard in that location.
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Resco de Dios V, Cunill Camprubí À, Pérez-Zanón N, Peña JC, Martínez Del Castillo E, Rodrigues M, Yao Y, Yebra M, Vega-García C, Boer MM. Convergence in critical fuel moisture and fire weather thresholds associated with fire activity in the pyroregions of Mediterranean Europe. THE SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT 2022; 806:151462. [PMID: 34742803 DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2021.151462] [Citation(s) in RCA: 5] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/27/2021] [Revised: 11/01/2021] [Accepted: 11/01/2021] [Indexed: 06/13/2023]
Abstract
Wildfires are becoming an increasing threat to many communities worldwide. There has been substantial progress towards understanding the proximal causes of increased fire activity in recent years at regional and national scales. However, subcontinental scale examinations of the commonalities and differences in the drivers of fire activity across different regions are rare in the Mediterranean zone of the European Union (EUMed). Here, we first develop a new classification of EUMed pyroregions, based on grouping different ecoregions with similar seasonal patterns of burned area. We then examine the thresholds associated with fire activity in response to different drivers related to fuel moisture, surface meteorology and atmospheric stability. We document an overarching role for variation in dead fuel moisture content (FMd), or its atmospheric proxy of vapor pressure deficit (VPD), as the major driver of fire activity. A proxy for live fuel moisture content (EVI), wind speed (WS) and the Continuous Haines Index (CH) played secondary, albeit important, roles. There were minor differences in the actual threshold values of FMd (10-12%), EVI (0.29-0.36) and CH (4.9-5.5) associated with the onset of fire activity across pyroregions with peak fire seasons in summer and fall, despite very marked differences in mean annual burned area and fire size range. The average size of fire events increased with the number of drivers exceeding critical thresholds and reaching increasingly extreme values of a driver led to disproportionate increases in the likelihood of a fire becoming a large fire. For instance, the percentage of fires >500 ha increased from 2% to 25% as FMd changed from the wettest to the driest quantile. Our study is among the first to jointly address the roles of fuel moisture, surface meteorology and atmospheric stability on fire activity in EUMed and provides novel insights on the interactions across fire activity triggers.
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Affiliation(s)
- Víctor Resco de Dios
- School of Life Science and Engineering, Southwest University of Science and Technology, Mianyang, China; Department of Crop and Forest Sciences, University of Lleida, Lleida, Spain; Joint Research Unit CTFC-AGROTECNIO-CERCA Center, Lleida, Spain.
| | | | | | - Juan Carlos Peña
- Meteorological Service of Catalonia, Barcelona, Spain; Fluvalps-PaleoRisk Research Group, Department of Geography, University of Barcelona, Spain
| | - Edurne Martínez Del Castillo
- Joint Research Unit CTFC-AGROTECNIO-CERCA Center, Lleida, Spain; Department of Geography, Johannes Gutenberg University, 55099 Mainz, Germany
| | - Marcos Rodrigues
- Department of Geography and Land Management, University of Zaragoza, GEOFOREST Group, Spain
| | - Yinan Yao
- School of Life Science and Engineering, Southwest University of Science and Technology, Mianyang, China.
| | - Marta Yebra
- Fenner School of Environment & Society, The Australian National University, Canberra, ACT, Australia; Bushfire and Natural Hazards Cooperative Research Centre, Melbourne, VIC, Australia; School of Engineering, The Australian National University, Canberra, ACT, Australia
| | - Cristina Vega-García
- Department of Agricultural and Forest Engineering, University of Lleida, Lleida, Spain; Joint Research Unit CTFC-AGROTECNIO-CERCA Center, Lleida, Spain
| | - Matthias M Boer
- Hawkesbury Institute for the Environment, Western Sydney University, Richmond, NSW, Australia
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25
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Singh M, Zhu X. Analysis of how the spatial and temporal patterns of fire and their bioclimatic and anthropogenic drivers vary across the Amazon rainforest in El Niño and non-El Niño years. PeerJ 2021; 9:e12029. [PMID: 34707922 PMCID: PMC8502451 DOI: 10.7717/peerj.12029] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/11/2021] [Accepted: 07/30/2021] [Indexed: 11/20/2022] Open
Abstract
In the past two decades, Amazon rainforest countries (Brazil, Bolivia, Colombia, Ecuador, Guyana, Peru and Venezuela) have experienced a substantial increase in fire frequency due to the changes in the patterns of different anthropogenic and climatic drivers. This study examines how both fire dynamics and bioclimatic factors varied based on the season (wet season and dry season) El Niño years across the different countries and ecosystems within the Amazon rainforest. Data from publicly available databases on forest fires (Global Fire Atlas) and bioclimatic, topographic and anthropogenic variables were employed in the analysis. Linear mixed-effect models discovered that year type (El Niño vs. non-El Niño), seasonality (dry vs. wet), land cover and forest strata (in terms of canopy cover and intactness) and their interactions varied across the Amazonian countries (and the different ecosystems) under consideration. A machine learning model, Multivariate Adaptive Regression Spline (MARS), was utilized to determine the relative importance of climatic, topographic, forest structure and human modification variables on fire dynamics across wet and dry seasons, both in El Niño and non-El Niño years. The findings of this study make clear that declining precipitation and increased temperatures have strong impact on fire dynamics (size, duration, expansion and speed) for El Niño years. El Niño years also saw greater fire sizes and speeds as compared to non-El Niño years. Dense and relatively undisturbed forests were found to have the lowest fire activity and increased human impact on a landscape was associated with exacerbated fire dynamics, especially in the El Niño years. Additionally, the presence of grass-dominated ecosystems such as grasslands also acted as a driver of fire in both El Niño and non-El Niño years. Hence, from a conservation perspective, increased interventions during the El Niño periods should be considered.
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26
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Implementation of the Burned Area Component of the Copernicus Climate Change Service: From MODIS to OLCI Data. REMOTE SENSING 2021. [DOI: 10.3390/rs13214295] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/16/2022]
Abstract
This article presents the burned area (BA) product of the Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) of the European Commission. This product, named C3SBA10, is based on the adaptation to Sentinel-3 OLCI images of a BA algorithm developed within the Fire Climate Change Initiative (FireCCI) project, which used MODIS data. We first reviewed the adaptation process and then analysed the results of both products for common years (2017–2019). Comparisons were performed using four different grid sizes (0.05°, 0.10°, 0.25°, and 0.50°). Annual correlations between the two products ranged from 0.94 to 0.99. Global BA estimates were found to be more similar when the two Sentinel-3 satellites were active (2019), as the temporal resolution was closer to that of the MODIS sensor. Global validation was performed using reference data derived from Landsat-8 images, following a stratified random sampling design. The C3SBA10 showed commission errors between 16 and 21% and omission errors from 48 to 50%, similar to those found in the FireCCI product. The temporal reporting accuracy was also validated using 19 million active fires. In total, 87% of the detections were made within 10 days after the fire by both products. The high consistency between both products ensures global BA data provision from 2001 to the present. The datasets are freely available through the Copernicus Climate Data Store (CDS) repository.
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27
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Zhu TR, Litton CM, Giardina CP, Trauernicht C. Moisture availability and ecological restoration limit fine fuels and modelled wildfire intensity following non‐native ungulate removal in Hawaii. J Appl Ecol 2021. [DOI: 10.1111/1365-2664.13952] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/29/2022]
Affiliation(s)
- Timothy R. Zhu
- Department of Natural Resources and Environmental Management University of Hawaiʻi at Mānoa Honolulu HI USA
| | - Creighton M. Litton
- Department of Natural Resources and Environmental Management University of Hawaiʻi at Mānoa Honolulu HI USA
| | - Christian P. Giardina
- Institute of Pacific Islands Forestry Pacific Southwest Research Station United States Forest Service Hilo HI USA
| | - Clay Trauernicht
- Department of Natural Resources and Environmental Management University of Hawaiʻi at Mānoa Honolulu HI USA
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28
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McColl‐Gausden SC, Bennett LT, Ababei DA, Clarke HG, Penman TD. Future fire regimes increase risks to obligate‐seeder forests. DIVERS DISTRIB 2021. [DOI: 10.1111/ddi.13417] [Citation(s) in RCA: 4] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 02/02/2023] Open
Affiliation(s)
- Sarah C. McColl‐Gausden
- School of Ecosystem and Forest Sciences The University of Melbourne Melbourne Victoria Australia
| | - Lauren T. Bennett
- School of Ecosystem and Forest Sciences The University of Melbourne Melbourne Victoria Australia
| | - Dan A. Ababei
- School of Ecosystem and Forest Sciences The University of Melbourne Melbourne Victoria Australia
| | - Hamish G. Clarke
- Centre for Environmental Risk Management of Bushfires Centre for Sustainable Ecosystem Solutions University of Wollongong Wollongong New South Wales Australia
- Hawkesbury Institute for the EnvironmentWestern Sydney University Penrith New South Wales Australia
| | - Trent D. Penman
- School of Ecosystem and Forest Sciences The University of Melbourne Melbourne Victoria Australia
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Chuvieco E, Pettinari ML, Koutsias N, Forkel M, Hantson S, Turco M. Human and climate drivers of global biomass burning variability. THE SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT 2021; 779:146361. [PMID: 34030254 DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2021.146361] [Citation(s) in RCA: 16] [Impact Index Per Article: 5.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/26/2020] [Revised: 03/04/2021] [Accepted: 03/05/2021] [Indexed: 06/12/2023]
Abstract
Biomass burning is one of the most critical factors impacting vegetation and atmospheric trends, with important societal implications, particularly when extreme weather conditions occur. Trends and factors of burned area (BA) have been analysed at regional and global scales, but little effort has been dedicated to study the interannual variability. This paper aimed to better understand factors explaining this variation, under the assumption that the more human control of fires the more frequently they occur, as burnings will be less dependent of weather cycles. Interannual variability of BA was estimated from the coefficient of variation of the annual BA (BA_CV) estimated from satellite data at 250 m, covering the period from 2001 to 2018. These data and the explanatory variables were resampled at 0.25-degree resolution for global analysis. Relations between this variable and explanatory factors, including human and climate drivers, were estimated using Random Forest (RF) and generalized additive models (GAM). BA_CV was negatively related to BA_Mean, implying that areas with higher average BA have lower variability as well. Interannual BA variability decreased when maximum temperature (TMAX) and actual and potential evapotranspiration (AET, PET) increased, cropland and livestock density increased and the human development index (HDI) values decreased. GAM models indicated interesting links with AET, PET and precipitation, with negative relation with BA_CV for the lower ranges and positive for the higher ones, the former indicating fuel limitations of fire activity, and the latter climate constrains. For the global RF model, TMAX, AET and HDI were the main drivers of interannual variability. As originally hypothesised, BA_CV was more dependent on human factors (HDI) in those areas with medium to large BA occurrence, particularly in tropical Africa and Central Asia, while climatic factors were more important in boreal regions, but also in the tropical regions of Australia and South America.
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Affiliation(s)
- Emilio Chuvieco
- Department of Geology, Geography and the Environment, University of Alcala, Calle Colegios 2, 28801 Alcalá de Henares, Spain.
| | - M Lucrecia Pettinari
- Department of Geology, Geography and the Environment, University of Alcala, Calle Colegios 2, 28801 Alcalá de Henares, Spain
| | - Nikos Koutsias
- Department of Environmental Engineering, University of Patras, 2 Georgiou Seferi St., Agrinio, Greece
| | - Matthias Forkel
- Faculty of Environmental Sciences, Institute for Photogrammetry and Remote Sensing, TU Dresden, Helmholtzstr. 10, 01069 Dresden, Germany
| | - Stijn Hantson
- Geospatial Data Solutions Center, 3212 Croul Hall, University of California, Irvine, Irvine, CA 92697, USA
| | - Marco Turco
- Regional Atmospheric Modelling (MAR) Group, Department of Physics, University of Murcia, Espinardo campus, 30100 Murcia, Spain
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Abstract
Forest fires of the western United States have advanced upslope over the past few decades, scorching territories previously too wet to burn. We document an upslope advancement of high-elevation fires of 7.6 m/y, a rate comparable to the elevational velocity of vapor pressure deficit of 8.9 m/y. Strong interannual links between aridity and high-elevation forest fires and reduced influence of fire exclusion policies in montane mesic forests imply such changes are a byproduct of climate warming. We estimate that increased aridity between 1984 and 2017 exposed an additional 81,500 km2 of western US montane forests to fires. These changes have significant implications for terrestrial carbon storage, snowpack, and water quantity and quality. Increases in burned area and large fire occurrence are widely documented over the western United States over the past half century. Here, we focus on the elevational distribution of forest fires in mountainous ecoregions of the western United States and show the largest increase rates in burned area above 2,500 m during 1984 to 2017. Furthermore, we show that high-elevation fires advanced upslope with a median cumulative change of 252 m (−107 to 656 m; 95% CI) in 34 y across studied ecoregions. We also document a strong interannual relationship between high-elevation fires and warm season vapor pressure deficit (VPD). The upslope advance of fires is consistent with observed warming reflected by a median upslope drift of VPD isolines of 295 m (59 to 704 m; 95% CI) during 1984 to 2017. These findings allow us to estimate that recent climate trends reduced the high-elevation flammability barrier and enabled fires in an additional 11% of western forests. Limited influences of fire management practices and longer fire-return intervals in these montane mesic systems suggest these changes are largely a byproduct of climate warming. Further weakening in the high-elevation flammability barrier with continued warming has the potential to transform montane fire regimes with numerous implications for ecosystems and watersheds.
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The Effect of Antecedent Fire Severity on Reburn Severity and Fuel Structure in a Resprouting Eucalypt Forest in Victoria, Australia. FORESTS 2021. [DOI: 10.3390/f12040450] [Citation(s) in RCA: 6] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 01/02/2023]
Abstract
Research highlights—Feedbacks between fire severity, vegetation structure and ecosystem flammability are understudied in highly fire-tolerant forests that are dominated by epicormic resprouters. We examined the relationships between the severity of two overlapping fires in a resprouting eucalypt forest and the subsequent effect of fire severity on fuel structure. We found that the likelihood of a canopy fire was the highest in areas that had previously been exposed to a high level of canopy scorch or consumption. Fuel structure was sensitive to the time since the previous canopy fire, but not the number of canopy fires. Background and Objectives—Feedbacks between fire and vegetation may constrain or amplify the effect of climate change on future wildfire behaviour. Such feedbacks have been poorly studied in forests dominated by highly fire-tolerant epicormic resprouters. Here, we conducted a case study based on two overlapping fires within a eucalypt forest that was dominated by epicormic resprouters to examine (1) whether past wildfire severity affects future wildfire severity, and (2) how combinations of understorey fire and canopy fire within reburnt areas affect fuel properties. Materials and Methods—The study focused on ≈77,000 ha of forest in south-eastern Australia that was burnt by a wildfire in 2007 and reburnt in 2013. The study system was dominated by eucalyptus trees that can resprout epicormically following fires that substantially scorch or consume foliage in the canopy layer. We used satellite-derived mapping to assess whether the severity of the 2013 fire was affected by the severity of the 2007 fire. Five levels of fire severity were considered (lowest to highest): unburnt, low canopy scorch, moderate canopy scorch, high canopy scorch and canopy consumption. Field surveys were then used to assess whether combinations of understorey fire (<80% canopy scorch) and canopy fire (>90% canopy consumption) recorded over the 2007 and 2013 fires caused differences in fuel structure. Results—Reburn severity was influenced by antecedent fire severity under severe fire weather, with the likelihood of canopy-consuming fire increasing with increasing antecedent fire severity up to those classes causing a high degree of canopy disturbance (i.e., high canopy scorch or canopy consumption). The increased occurrence of canopy-consuming fire largely came at the expense of the moderate and high canopy scorch classes, suggesting that there was a shift from crown scorch to crown consumption. Antecedent fire severity had little effect on the severity patterns of the 2013 fire under nonsevere fire weather. Areas affected by canopy fire in 2007 and/or 2013 had greater vertical connectivity of fuels than sites that were reburnt by understorey fires, though we found no evidence that repeated canopy fires were having compounding effects on fuel structure. Conclusions—Our case study suggests that exposure to canopy-defoliating fires has the potential to increase the severity of subsequent fires in resprouting eucalypt forests in the short term. We propose that the increased vertical connectivity of fuels caused by resprouting and seedling recruitment were responsible for the elevated fire severity. The effect of antecedent fire severity on reburn severity will likely be constrained by a range of factors, such as fire weather.
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Joshi J, Sukumar R. Improving prediction and assessment of global fires using multilayer neural networks. Sci Rep 2021; 11:3295. [PMID: 33558568 PMCID: PMC7870964 DOI: 10.1038/s41598-021-81233-4] [Citation(s) in RCA: 7] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/06/2020] [Accepted: 12/30/2020] [Indexed: 11/09/2022] Open
Abstract
Fires determine vegetation patterns, impact human societies, and are a part of complex feedbacks into the global climate system. Empirical and process-based models differ in their scale and mechanistic assumptions, giving divergent predictions of fire drivers and extent. Although humans have historically used and managed fires, the current role of anthropogenic drivers of fires remains less quantified. Whereas patterns in fire-climate interactions are consistent across the globe, fire-human-vegetation relationships vary strongly by region. Taking a data-driven approach, we use an artificial neural network to learn region-specific relationships between fire and its socio-environmental drivers across the globe. As a result, our models achieve higher predictability as compared to many state-of-the-art fire models, with global spatial correlation of 0.92, monthly temporal correlation of 0.76, interannual correlation of 0.69, and grid-cell level correlation of 0.60, between predicted and observed burned area. Given the current socio-anthropogenic conditions, Equatorial Asia, southern Africa, and Australia show a strong sensitivity of burned area to temperature whereas northern Africa shows a strong negative sensitivity. Overall, forests and shrublands show a stronger sensitivity of burned area to temperature compared to savannas, potentially weakening their status as carbon sinks under future climate-change scenarios.
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Affiliation(s)
- Jaideep Joshi
- Centre for Ecological Sciences, Indian Institute of Science, Bangalore, 560012, India.
- Divecha Centre for Climate Change, Indian Institute of Science, Bangalore, 560012, India.
| | - Raman Sukumar
- Centre for Ecological Sciences, Indian Institute of Science, Bangalore, 560012, India.
- Divecha Centre for Climate Change, Indian Institute of Science, Bangalore, 560012, India.
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Calheiros T, Pereira MG, Nunes JP. Assessing impacts of future climate change on extreme fire weather and pyro-regions in Iberian Peninsula. THE SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT 2021; 754:142233. [PMID: 32920419 DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.142233] [Citation(s) in RCA: 8] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/05/2020] [Revised: 09/03/2020] [Accepted: 09/03/2020] [Indexed: 06/11/2023]
Abstract
Weather conditions play an important role in wildfire activity. In many regions, future climate could lead to different fire weather, with impacts on the ignition, behaviour, and suppression of wildfires, which may, therefore, force new fire regimes. This study aimed to assess the evolution of fire weather indices and the Number of Extreme Days (NED) in the context of climate change. We estimated the impact of these changes on monthly Normalized Burnt Area (NBA) and in the spatial distribution of Pyro-Regions (PR), using a recently identified relationship between NED and NBA intra-annual patterns. The components of the Canadian Forest Fire Weather Index System (CFFWIS) in the Iberian Peninsula were analysed for present-day conditions and future climate scenarios, using daily data from ERA-Interim (1980-2014) and an ensemble of simulations from 11 EURO-CORDEX high spatial resolution models, for two future periods (2041-2070 and 2071-2100) and scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). Results suggest a significant increase in future fire weather risk, especially in late spring and early autumn, and also in southern and eastern Iberian Peninsula. NED is expected to strongly increase in summer months in the four PRs, but also to decrease in March and April in the northwestern and southwestern PR. This could change the spatial distribution of PRs, with a general northwards movement: the northern PR is expected to disappear except north of the Cantabrian Mountains, being replaced by the northwestern PR; the southwestern PR is expected to grow and occupy part of the area currently in the northwestern PR; and a new PR could appear in parts of the current eastern PR. These PR changes follow the projected modifications in the major climate regions. Results suggest different fire regimes in the future, with higher fire weather risk, and a longer and harsher fire season.
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Affiliation(s)
- T Calheiros
- cE3c: centre for Ecology, Evolution and Environmental changes, Faculdade de Ciências, Universidade de Lisboa, Lisboa, Portugal.
| | - M G Pereira
- Centro de Investigação e de Tecnologias Agro-Ambientais e Biológicas (CITAB), Universidade de Trás-os-Montes e Alto Douro, Vila Real, Portugal; IDL, Universidade de Lisboa, Lisboa, Portugal.
| | - J P Nunes
- cE3c: centre for Ecology, Evolution and Environmental changes, Faculdade de Ciências, Universidade de Lisboa, Lisboa, Portugal.
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35
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In the Line of Fire: Consequences of Human-Ignited Wildfires to Homes in the U.S. (1992–2015). FIRE-SWITZERLAND 2020. [DOI: 10.3390/fire3030050] [Citation(s) in RCA: 19] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/16/2022]
Abstract
With climate-driven increases in wildfires in the western U.S., it is imperative to understand how the risk to homes is also changing nationwide. Here, we quantify the number of homes threatened, suppression costs, and ignition sources for 1.6 million wildfires in the United States (U.S.; 1992–2015). Human-caused wildfires accounted for 97% of the residential homes threatened (within 1 km of a wildfire) and nearly a third of suppression costs. This study illustrates how the wildland-urban interface (WUI), which accounts for only a small portion of U.S. land area (10%), acts as a major source of fires, almost exclusively human-started. Cumulatively (1992–2015), just over one million homes were within human-caused wildfire perimeters in the WUI, where communities are built within flammable vegetation. An additional 58.8 million homes were within one kilometer across the 24-year record. On an annual basis in the WUI (1999–2014), an average of 2.5 million homes (2.2–2.8 million, 95% confidence interval) were threatened by human-started wildfires (within the perimeter and up to 1-km away). The number of residential homes in the WUI grew by 32 million from 1990–2015. The convergence of warmer, drier conditions and greater development into flammable landscapes is leaving many communities vulnerable to human-caused wildfires. These areas are a high priority for policy and management efforts that aim to reduce human ignitions and promote resilience to future fires, particularly as the number of residential homes in the WUI grew across this record and are expected to continue to grow in coming years.
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Chen Y, Randerson JT, Coffield SR, Foufoula‐Georgiou E, Smyth P, Graff CA, Morton DC, Andela N, van der Werf GR, Giglio L, Ott LE. Forecasting Global Fire Emissions on Subseasonal to Seasonal (S2S) Time Scales. JOURNAL OF ADVANCES IN MODELING EARTH SYSTEMS 2020; 12:e2019MS001955. [PMID: 33042387 PMCID: PMC7540459 DOI: 10.1029/2019ms001955] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/22/2019] [Revised: 07/02/2020] [Accepted: 08/20/2020] [Indexed: 06/11/2023]
Abstract
Fire emissions of gases and aerosols alter atmospheric composition and have substantial impacts on climate, ecosystem function, and human health. Warming climate and human expansion in fire-prone landscapes exacerbate fire impacts and call for more effective management tools. Here we developed a global fire forecasting system that predicts monthly emissions using past fire data and climate variables for lead times of 1 to 6 months. Using monthly fire emissions from the Global Fire Emissions Database (GFED) as the prediction target, we fit a statistical time series model, the Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average model with eXogenous variables (ARIMAX), in over 1,300 different fire regions. Optimized parameters were then used to forecast future emissions. The forecast system took into account information about region-specific seasonality, long-term trends, recent fire observations, and climate drivers representing both large-scale climate variability and local fire weather. We cross-validated the forecast skill of the system with different combinations of predictors and forecast lead times. The reference model, which combined endogenous and exogenous predictors with a 1 month forecast lead time, explained 52% of the variability in the global fire emissions anomaly, considerably exceeding the performance of a reference model that assumed persistent emissions during the forecast period. The system also successfully resolved detailed spatial patterns of fire emissions anomalies in regions with significant fire activity. This study bridges the gap between the efforts of near-real-time fire forecasts and seasonal fire outlooks and represents a step toward establishing an operational global fire, smoke, and carbon cycle forecasting system.
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Affiliation(s)
- Yang Chen
- Department of Earth System ScienceUniversity of CaliforniaIrvineCAUSA
| | - James T. Randerson
- Department of Earth System ScienceUniversity of CaliforniaIrvineCAUSA
- Department of Civil and Environmental EngineeringUniversity of CaliforniaIrvineCAUSA
| | - Shane R. Coffield
- Department of Earth System ScienceUniversity of CaliforniaIrvineCAUSA
| | - Efi Foufoula‐Georgiou
- Department of Earth System ScienceUniversity of CaliforniaIrvineCAUSA
- Department of Civil and Environmental EngineeringUniversity of CaliforniaIrvineCAUSA
| | - Padhraic Smyth
- Department of Computer ScienceUniversity of CaliforniaIrvineCAUSA
- Department of StatisticsUniversity of CaliforniaIrvineUSA
| | - Casey A. Graff
- Department of Computer ScienceUniversity of CaliforniaIrvineCAUSA
| | - Douglas C. Morton
- Biospheric Sciences LaboratoryNASA Goddard Space Flight CenterGreenbeltMDUSA
| | - Niels Andela
- Biospheric Sciences LaboratoryNASA Goddard Space Flight CenterGreenbeltMDUSA
| | | | - Louis Giglio
- Department of Geographical SciencesUniversity of MarylandCollege ParkMDUSA
| | - Lesley E. Ott
- Global Modeling and Assimilation OfficeNASA Goddard Space Flight CenterGreenbeltMDUSA
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Sitters H, Di Stefano J. Integrating functional connectivity and fire management for better conservation outcomes. CONSERVATION BIOLOGY : THE JOURNAL OF THE SOCIETY FOR CONSERVATION BIOLOGY 2020; 34:550-560. [PMID: 31777984 DOI: 10.1111/cobi.13446] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/05/2018] [Revised: 11/11/2019] [Accepted: 11/22/2019] [Indexed: 06/10/2023]
Abstract
Globally, the mean abundance of terrestrial animals has fallen by 50% since 1970, and populations face ongoing threats associated with habitat loss, fragmentation, climate change, and disturbance. Climate change can influence the quality of remaining habitat directly and indirectly by precipitating increases in the extent, frequency, and severity of natural disturbances, such as fire. Species face the combined threats of habitat clearance, changing climates, and altered disturbance regimes, each of which may interact and have cascading impacts on animal populations. Typically, conservation agencies are limited in their capacity to mitigate rates of habitat clearance, habitat fragmentation, or climate change, yet fire management is increasingly used worldwide to reduce wildfire risk and achieve conservation outcomes. A popular approach to ecological fire management involves the creation of fire mosaics to promote animal diversity. However, this strategy has 2 fundamental limitations: the effect of fire on animal movement within or among habitat patches is not considered and the implications of the current fire regime for long-term population persistence are overlooked. Spatial and temporal patterns in fire history can influence animal movement, which is essential to the survival of individual animals, maintenance of genetic diversity, and persistence of populations, species, and ecosystems. We argue that there is rich potential for fire managers to manipulate animal movement patterns; enhance functional connectivity, gene flow, and genetic diversity; and increase the capacity of populations to persist under shifting environmental conditions. Recent methodological advances, such as spatiotemporal connectivity modeling, spatially explicit individual-based simulation, and fire-regime modeling can be integrated to achieve better outcomes for biodiversity in human-modified, fire-prone landscapes. Article impact statement: Land managers may conserve populations by using fire to sustain or enhance functional connectivity.
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Affiliation(s)
- Holly Sitters
- School of Ecosystem and Forest Sciences, The University of Melbourne, Creswick, Victoria, 3363, Australia
| | - Julian Di Stefano
- School of Ecosystem and Forest Sciences, The University of Melbourne, Creswick, Victoria, 3363, Australia
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Bernhard GH, Neale RE, Barnes PW, Neale PJ, Zepp RG, Wilson SR, Andrady AL, Bais AF, McKenzie RL, Aucamp PJ, Young PJ, Liley JB, Lucas RM, Yazar S, Rhodes LE, Byrne SN, Hollestein LM, Olsen CM, Young AR, Robson TM, Bornman JF, Jansen MAK, Robinson SA, Ballaré CL, Williamson CE, Rose KC, Banaszak AT, Häder DP, Hylander S, Wängberg SÅ, Austin AT, Hou WC, Paul ND, Madronich S, Sulzberger B, Solomon KR, Li H, Schikowski T, Longstreth J, Pandey KK, Heikkilä AM, White CC. Environmental effects of stratospheric ozone depletion, UV radiation and interactions with climate change: UNEP Environmental Effects Assessment Panel, update 2019. Photochem Photobiol Sci 2020; 19:542-584. [PMID: 32364555 PMCID: PMC7442302 DOI: 10.1039/d0pp90011g] [Citation(s) in RCA: 35] [Impact Index Per Article: 8.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/23/2020] [Accepted: 03/23/2020] [Indexed: 12/24/2022]
Abstract
This assessment, by the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) Environmental Effects Assessment Panel (EEAP), one of three Panels informing the Parties to the Montreal Protocol, provides an update, since our previous extensive assessment (Photochem. Photobiol. Sci., 2019, 18, 595-828), of recent findings of current and projected interactive environmental effects of ultraviolet (UV) radiation, stratospheric ozone, and climate change. These effects include those on human health, air quality, terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems, biogeochemical cycles, and materials used in construction and other services. The present update evaluates further evidence of the consequences of human activity on climate change that are altering the exposure of organisms and ecosystems to UV radiation. This in turn reveals the interactive effects of many climate change factors with UV radiation that have implications for the atmosphere, feedbacks, contaminant fate and transport, organismal responses, and many outdoor materials including plastics, wood, and fabrics. The universal ratification of the Montreal Protocol, signed by 197 countries, has led to the regulation and phase-out of chemicals that deplete the stratospheric ozone layer. Although this treaty has had unprecedented success in protecting the ozone layer, and hence all life on Earth from damaging UV radiation, it is also making a substantial contribution to reducing climate warming because many of the chemicals under this treaty are greenhouse gases.
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Affiliation(s)
- G H Bernhard
- Biospherical Instruments Inc., San Diego, California, USA
| | - R E Neale
- Population Health Department, QIMR Berghofer Medical Research Institute, Brisbane, Australia
| | - P W Barnes
- Biological Sciences and Environment Program, Loyola University, New Orleans, USA
| | - P J Neale
- Smithsonian Environmental Research Center, Edgewater, Maryland, USA
| | - R G Zepp
- United States Environmental Protection Agency, Athens, Georgia, USA
| | - S R Wilson
- School of Earth, Atmospheric and Life Sciences, University of Wollongong, Wollongong, Australia
| | - A L Andrady
- Department of Chemical and Biomolecular Engineering, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, North Carolina, USA
| | - A F Bais
- Department of Physics, Aristotle University of Thessaloniki, Greece
| | - R L McKenzie
- National Institute of Water & Atmospheric Research, Lauder, Central Otago, New Zealand
| | - P J Aucamp
- Ptersa Environmental Consultants, Faerie Glen, South Africa
| | - P J Young
- Lancaster Environment Centre, Lancaster University, Lancaster, UK
| | - J B Liley
- National Institute of Water & Atmospheric Research, Lauder, Central Otago, New Zealand
| | - R M Lucas
- National Centre for Epidemiology and Population Health, Australian National University, Canberra, Australia
| | - S Yazar
- Garvan Institute of Medical Research, Sydney, Australia
| | - L E Rhodes
- Faculty of Biology Medicine and Health, University of Manchester, and Salford Royal Hospital, Manchester, UK
| | - S N Byrne
- School of Medical Sciences, University of Sydney, Sydney, Australia
| | - L M Hollestein
- Erasmus MC, University Medical Center Rotterdam, Manchester, The Netherlands
| | - C M Olsen
- Population Health Department, QIMR Berghofer Medical Research Institute, Brisbane, Australia
| | - A R Young
- St John's Institute of Dermatology, King's College, London, London, UK
| | - T M Robson
- Organismal & Evolutionary Biology, Viikki Plant Science Centre, University of Helsinki, Helsinki, Finland
| | - J F Bornman
- Food Futures Institute, Murdoch University, Perth, Australia.
| | - M A K Jansen
- School of Biological, Earth and Environmental Sciences, University College Cork, Cork, Ireland
| | - S A Robinson
- Centre for Sustainable Ecosystem Solutions, University of Wollongong, Wollongong, Australia
| | - C L Ballaré
- Faculty of Agronomy and IFEVA-CONICET, University of Buenos Aires, Buenos Aires, Argentina
| | - C E Williamson
- Department of Biology, Miami University, Oxford, Ohio, USA
| | - K C Rose
- Department of Biological Sciences, Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute, Troy, New York, USA
| | - A T Banaszak
- Unidad Académica de Sistemas Arrecifales, Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México, Puerto Morelos, Mexico
| | - D -P Häder
- Department of Biology, Friedrich-Alexander University, Möhrendorf, Germany
| | - S Hylander
- Centre for Ecology and Evolution in Microbial Model Systems, Linnaeus University, Kalmar, Sweden
| | - S -Å Wängberg
- Department of Marine Sciences, University of Gothenburg, Gothenburg, Sweden
| | - A T Austin
- Faculty of Agronomy and IFEVA-CONICET, University of Buenos Aires, Buenos Aires, Argentina
| | - W -C Hou
- Department of Environmental Engineering, National Cheng Kung University, Tainan City, Taiwan, China
| | - N D Paul
- Lancaster Environment Centre, Lancaster University, Lancaster, UK
| | - S Madronich
- National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado, USA
| | - B Sulzberger
- Swiss Federal Institute of Aquatic Science and Technology, Dübendorf, Switzerland
| | - K R Solomon
- Centre for Toxicology, School of Environmental Sciences, University of Guelph, Guelph, Canada
| | - H Li
- Institute of Atmospheric Environment, Chinese Research Academy of Environmental Sciences, Beijing, China
| | - T Schikowski
- Research Group of Environmental Epidemiology, Leibniz Institute of Environmental Medicine, Düsseldorf, Germany
| | - J Longstreth
- Institute for Global Risk Research, Bethesda, Maryland, USA
| | - K K Pandey
- Institute of Wood Science and Technology, Bengaluru, India
| | - A M Heikkilä
- Finnish Meteorological Institute, Helsinki, Finland
| | - C C White
- , 5409 Mohican Rd, Bethesda, Maryland, USA
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Predicting the influence of climate on grassland area burned in Xilingol, China with dynamic simulations of autoregressive distributed lag models. PLoS One 2020; 15:e0229894. [PMID: 32243439 PMCID: PMC7122722 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0229894] [Citation(s) in RCA: 7] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/06/2019] [Accepted: 02/18/2020] [Indexed: 12/05/2022] Open
Abstract
The influence of climate change on wildland fire has received considerable attention, but few studies have examined the potential effects of climate variability on grassland area burned within the extensive steppe land of Eurasia. We used a novel statistical approach borrowed from the social science literature—dynamic simulations of autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) models—to explore the relationship between temperature, relative humidity, precipitation, wind speed, sunlight, and carbon emissions on grassland area burned in Xilingol, a large grassland-dominated landscape of Inner Mongolia in northern China. We used an ARDL model to describe the influence of these variables on observed area burned between 2001 and 2018 and used dynamic simulations of the model to project the influence of climate on area burned over the next twenty years. Our analysis demonstrates that area burned was most sensitive to wind speed and temperature. A 1% increase in wind speed was associated with a 20.8% and 22.8% increase in observed and predicted area burned respectively, while a 1% increase in maximum temperature was associated with an 8.7% and 9.7% increase in observed and predicted future area burned. Dynamic simulations of ARDL models provide insights into the variability of area burned across Inner Mongolia grasslands in the context of anthropogenic climate change.
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40
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Multivariate climate departures have outpaced univariate changes across global lands. Sci Rep 2020; 10:3891. [PMID: 32127547 PMCID: PMC7054431 DOI: 10.1038/s41598-020-60270-5] [Citation(s) in RCA: 9] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/21/2019] [Accepted: 02/05/2020] [Indexed: 11/08/2022] Open
Abstract
Changes in individual climate variables have been widely documented over the past century. However, assessments that consider changes in the collective interaction amongst multiple climate variables are relevant for understanding climate impacts on ecological and human systems yet are less well documented than univariate changes. We calculate annual multivariate climate departures during 1958-2017 relative to a baseline 1958-1987 period that account for covariance among four variables important to Earth's biota and associated systems: annual climatic water deficit, annual evapotranspiration, average minimum temperature of the coldest month, and average maximum temperature of the warmest month. Results show positive trends in multivariate climate departures that were nearly three times that of univariate climate departures across global lands. Annual multivariate climate departures exceeded two standard deviations over the past decade for approximately 30% of global lands. Positive trends in climate departures over the last six decades were found to be primarily the result of changes in mean climate conditions consistent with the modeled effects of anthropogenic climate change rather than changes in variability. These results highlight the increasing novelty of annual climatic conditions viewed through a multivariate lens and suggest that changes in multivariate climate departures have generally outpaced univariate departures in recent decades.
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Boschetti L, Roy DP, Giglio L, Huang H, Zubkova M, Humber ML. Global validation of the collection 6 MODIS burned area product. REMOTE SENSING OF ENVIRONMENT 2019; 235:10.1016/j.rse.2019.111490. [PMID: 32440029 PMCID: PMC7241595 DOI: 10.1016/j.rse.2019.111490] [Citation(s) in RCA: 30] [Impact Index Per Article: 6.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 05/14/2023]
Abstract
This paper presents a Stage 3 validation of the recently released Collection 6 NASA MCD64A1 500 m global burned area product. The product is validated by comparison with Landsat 8 Operational Land Imager (OLI) image pairs acquired 16 days apart that were visually interpreted. These independent reference data were selected using a stratified random sampling approach that allows for probability sampling of Landsat data in both time and in space. A total of 558 Landsat 8 OLI image pairs (1116 images), acquired between March 1st, 2014 and March 19th , 2015, were selected and used to validate the MCD64A1 product. The areal accuracy of the MCD64A1 product was characterized at the 30 m resolution of the Landsat independent reference data using standard accuracy metrics derived from global and from biome specific confusion matrices. Because a probability based Stage 3 sampling protocol was followed, unbiased estimators of the accuracy metrics and associated standard errors could be used. Globally, the MCD64A1 product had an estimated 40.2% commission error and 72.6% omission error; the prevalence of omission errors is reflected by a negative estimated bias of the mapped global area burned relative to the Landsat independent reference data (-54.1%). Globally, the standard errors of the accuracy metrics were less than 6%. The lowest errors were observed in the boreal forest biome (27.0% omission and 23.9% estimated commission errors) where burned areas tend to be large and distinct, and remain on the landscape for long periods, and the highest errors were in the Tropical Forest, Temperate Forest, and Mediterranean biomes (estimated > 90% omission error and > 50% commission error). The product accuracy was also characterized at coarser scale using metrics derived from the regression between the proportion of coarse resolution grid cells detected as burned by MCD64A1 and the proportion mapped in the Landsat 8 interpreted maps. The errors of omission and commission observed at 30 m resolution compensate to a considerable extent at coarser resolution, as indicated by the coefficient of determination (r2 > 0.70), slope (> 0.79) and intercept (-0.0030) of the regression between the MCD64A1 product and the Landsat independent reference data in 3 km, 4 km, 5 km, and 6 km coarse resolution cells. The Boreal Forest, Desert and Xeric Shrublands, Temperate Savannah and Tropical Savannah biomes had higher r 2 and slopes closer to unity than the Temperate Forest, Mediterranean, and Tropical Forest biomes. The analysis of the deviations between the proportion of area burned mapped by the MCD64A1 product and by the independent reference data, performed using 3 km × 3 km and 6 km × 6 km coarse resolution cells, indicates that the large negative bias in global area burned is primarily due to the systematic underestimation of smaller burned areas in the MCD64A1 product.
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Affiliation(s)
- Luigi Boschetti
- College of Natural Resources, University of Idaho, Moscow, ID, 83843, USA
- Corresponding author. (L. Boschetti)
| | - David P. Roy
- Department of Geography, Environment & Spatial Sciences, Michigan State University, East Lansing, MI, 48824, USA
- Center for Global Change and Earth Observations, Michigan State University, East Lansing, MI, 48824, USA
| | - Louis Giglio
- Department of Geographical Sciences, University of Maryland, College Park, MD, 20740, USA
| | - Haiyan Huang
- Center for Global Change and Earth Observations, Michigan State University, East Lansing, MI, 48824, USA
| | - Maria Zubkova
- College of Natural Resources, University of Idaho, Moscow, ID, 83843, USA
| | - Michael L. Humber
- Department of Geographical Sciences, University of Maryland, College Park, MD, 20740, USA
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42
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Event-Based Integrated Assessment of Environmental Variables and Wildfire Severity through Sentinel-2 Data. FORESTS 2019. [DOI: 10.3390/f10111021] [Citation(s) in RCA: 5] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/17/2022]
Abstract
To optimize suppression, restoration, and prevention plans against wildfire, postfire assessment is a key input. Since little research has been carried out on applying Sentinel-2 imagery through an integrated approach to evaluate how environmental parameters affect fire severity, this work aims to fill this gap. A set of large forest fires that occurred in northwest Spain during extreme weather conditions were adopted as a case study. Sentinel-2 information was used to build the fire severity map and to evaluate the relation between it and a set of its driving factors: land cover, aspect, slope, proximity to the nearest stream, and fire recurrence. The cover types most affected by fire were scrubland, rocky areas, and Eucalyptus. The presence of streams was identified as a major cause of the reduced severity of fires in broadleaves. The occurrence of fires in the past is linked to the severity of fires, depending on the land cover. This research aims to help fire researchers, authority managers, and policy makers distinguish the conditions under which the damage by fire is minimized and optimize the resources allocated to restoration and future fire suppression.
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43
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Zubkova M, Boschetti L, Abatzoglou JT, Giglio L. Changes in Fire Activity in Africa from 2002 to 2016 and Their Potential Drivers. GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS 2019; 46:7643-7653. [PMID: 32440032 PMCID: PMC7241591 DOI: 10.1029/2019gl083469] [Citation(s) in RCA: 12] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.4] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/24/2019] [Accepted: 06/17/2019] [Indexed: 05/22/2023]
Abstract
While several studies have reported a recent decline in area burned in Africa, the causes of this decline are still not well understood. In this study, we found that from 2002 to 2016 burned area in Africa declined by 18.5%, with the strongest decline (80% of the area) in the Northern Hemisphere. One third of the reduction in burned area occurred in croplands, suggesting that changes in agricultural practices (including cropland expansion) are not the predominant factor behind recent changes in fire extent. Linear models that considered interannual variability in climate factors directly related to biomass productivity and aridity explained about 70% of the decline in burned area in natural land cover. Our results provide evidence that despite the fact that most fires are human-caused in Africa, increased terrestrial moisture during 2002-2016 facilitated declines in fire activity in Africa.
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Affiliation(s)
- Maria Zubkova
- Department of Natural Resources and Society, University of Idaho, Moscow, ID, USA
| | - Luigi Boschetti
- Department of Natural Resources and Society, University of Idaho, Moscow, ID, USA
| | | | - Louis Giglio
- Department of Geographical Sciences, University of Maryland, College Park, MD, USA
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44
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Bowman DMJS, Moreira-Muñoz A, Kolden CA, Chávez RO, Muñoz AA, Salinas F, González-Reyes Á, Rocco R, de la Barrera F, Williamson GJ, Borchers N, Cifuentes LA, Abatzoglou JT, Johnston FH. Human-environmental drivers and impacts of the globally extreme 2017 Chilean fires. AMBIO 2019; 48:350-362. [PMID: 30128860 PMCID: PMC6411810 DOI: 10.1007/s13280-018-1084-1] [Citation(s) in RCA: 36] [Impact Index Per Article: 7.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/11/2018] [Revised: 07/23/2018] [Accepted: 07/25/2018] [Indexed: 05/06/2023]
Abstract
In January 2017, hundreds of fires in Mediterranean Chile burnt more than 5000 km2, an area nearly 14 times the 40-year mean. We contextualize these fires in terms of estimates of global fire intensity using MODIS satellite record, and provide an overview of the climatic factors and recent changes in land use that led to the active fire season and estimate the impact of fire emissions to human health. The primary fire activity in late January coincided with extreme fire weather conditions including all-time (1979-2017) daily records for the Fire Weather Index (FWI) and maximum temperature, producing some of the most energetically intense fire events on Earth in the last 15-years. Fire activity was further enabled by a warm moist growing season in 2016 that interrupted an intense drought that started in 2010. The land cover in this region had been extensively modified, with less than 20% of the original native vegetation remaining, and extensive plantations of highly flammable exotic Pinus and Eucalyptus species established since the 1970s. These plantations were disproportionally burnt (44% of the burned area) in 2017, and associated with the highest fire severities, as part of an increasing trend of fire extent in plantations over the past three decades. Smoke from the fires exposed over 9.5 million people to increased concentrations of particulate air pollution, causing an estimated 76 premature deaths and 209 additional admissions to hospital for respiratory and cardiovascular conditions. This study highlights that Mediterranean biogeographic regions with expansive Pinus and Eucalyptus plantations and associated rural depopulation are vulnerable to intense wildfires with wide ranging social, economic, and environmental impacts, which are likely to become more frequent due to longer and more extreme wildfire seasons.
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Affiliation(s)
- David M. J. S. Bowman
- School of Natural Sciences, University of Tasmania, Private Bag 55, Hobart, TAS 7001 Australia
| | - Andrés Moreira-Muñoz
- Instituto de Geografía, Pontificia Universidad Católica de Valparaíso, Av. Brasil 2241 Valparaíso, Chile
| | - Crystal A. Kolden
- College of Natural Resources, University of Idaho, Moscow, ID 83844-1133 USA
| | - Roberto O. Chávez
- Instituto de Geografía, Pontificia Universidad Católica de Valparaíso, Av. Brasil 2241 Valparaíso, Chile
| | - Ariel A. Muñoz
- Instituto de Geografía, Pontificia Universidad Católica de Valparaíso, Av. Brasil 2241 Valparaíso, Chile
| | - Fernanda Salinas
- Fiscalía del Medio Ambiente (ONG FIMA), Mosqueto 491, of. 312, Santiago, Chile
| | - Álvaro González-Reyes
- Instituto de Ciencias de la Tierra, Facultad de Ciencias, Universidad Austral de Chile, Campus Isla Teja, Casilla, 567 Valdivia, Chile
| | - Ronald Rocco
- Instituto de Geografía, Pontificia Universidad Católica de Valparaíso, Av. Brasil 2241 Valparaíso, Chile
| | - Francisco de la Barrera
- Faculty of Architecture, Urbanism and Geography, Universidad de Concepcion, Victor Lamas 1290, Concepción, Chile
| | - Grant J. Williamson
- School of Natural Sciences, University of Tasmania, Private Bag 55, Hobart, TAS 7001 Australia
| | - Nicolás Borchers
- Menzies Institute for Medical Research, University of Tasmania, Private Bag 23, Hobart, TAS 7001 Australia
| | - Luis A. Cifuentes
- Industrial and Systems Engineering Department, Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile, Avda. Vicuña Mackenna 4860, Macul, Santiago, Chile
| | | | - Fay H. Johnston
- Menzies Institute for Medical Research, University of Tasmania, Private Bag 23, Hobart, TAS 7001 Australia
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A Socio-Ecological Approach to Mitigating Wildfire Vulnerability in the Wildland Urban Interface: A Case Study from the 2017 Thomas Fire. FIRE-SWITZERLAND 2019. [DOI: 10.3390/fire2010009] [Citation(s) in RCA: 29] [Impact Index Per Article: 5.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/17/2022]
Abstract
Wildfire disasters are one of the many consequences of increasing wildfire activities globally, and much effort has been made to identify strategies and actions for reducing human vulnerability to wildfire. While many individual homeowners and communities have enacted such strategies, the number subjected to a subsequent wildfire is considerably lower. Furthermore, there has been limited documentation on how mitigation strategies impact wildfire outcomes across the socio-ecological spectrum. Here we present a case report documenting wildfire vulnerability mitigation strategies undertaken by the community of Montecito, California, and how such strategies addressed exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity. We utilize geospatial data, recorded interviews, and program documentation to synthesize how those strategies subsequently impacted the advance of the 2017 Thomas Fire on the community of Montecito under extreme fire danger conditions. Despite the extreme wind conditions and interviewee estimates of potentially hundreds of homes being consumed, only seven primary residences were destroyed by the Thomas Fire, and firefighters indicated that pre-fire mitigation activities played a clear, central role in the outcomes observed. This supports prior findings that community partnerships between agencies and citizens are critical for identifying and implementing place-based solutions to reducing wildfire vulnerability.
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