Climate change induces multiple risks to boreal forests and forestry in Finland: A literature review

Extending the SUSI peatland simulator to include dissolved organic carbon formation, transport and biodegradation - Proper water management reduces lateral carbon fluxes and improves carbon balance

Drainage intensity and forest management in peatlands affect carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions to the atmosphere and export of dissolved organic carbon (DOC) to water courses. The peatland carbon (C) balance results from a complex network of ecosystem processes from where lateral C fluxes have typically been ignored. Here, we present a new version of the SUSI Peatland simulator, the first advanced process-based ecosystem model that compiles a full C balance in drained forested peatland including DOC formation, transport and biodegradation. SUSI considers site, stand and terrain characteristics as well as the interactions and feedbacks between ecosystem processes and offers novel ways to evaluate and mitigate adverse environmental impacts with thorough management planning. Here, we extended SUSI by designing and parameterizing a mass-balance based decomposition module (ESOM) based on literature findings and tested the ESOM performance against an independent dataset measured in the laboratory using peat columns collected from Finland, Estonia, Sweden and Ireland. ESOM predicted the CO2 emissions and changes in DOC concentrations with a reasonable accuracy for the peat columns. We applied the new SUSI for drained peatland sites and found that reducing the depth to which ditches are cleaned by 0.3 m decreased the annual DOC export by 34 (17 %), 29 (19 %) and 7 (5 %) kg ha-1 in Finland, Estonia and Sweden, respectively, using typical ditch spacing for these countries. Correspondingly, site annual C sink increased by 305, 409 and 32 kg ha-1 in Finland, Estonia and Sweden, respectively. Our results also indicated that terrain slope can markedly alter the water residence time and consequently DOC biodegradation and export to ditches. We conclude that DOC export can be decreased and site C sink increased by reducing the depth to which ditches are cleaned or by increasing the ditch spacing.

Can mixing Quercus robur and Quercus petraea with Pinus sylvestris compensate for productivity losses due to climate change?

The climate change scenarios RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5, with a representative concentration pathway for stabilization of radiative forcing of 4.5 W m-2 and 8.5 W m-2 by 2100, respectively, predict an increase in temperature of 1-4.5° Celsius for Europe and a simultaneous shift in precipitation patterns leading to increased drought frequency and severity. The negative consequences of such changes on tree growth on dry sites or at the dry end of a tree species distribution are well-known, but rarely quantified across large gradients. In this study, the growth of Quercus robur and Quercus petraea (Q. spp.) and Pinus sylvestris in pure and mixed stands was predicted for a historical scenario and the two climate change scenarios RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 using the individual tree growth model PrognAus. Predictions were made along an ecological gradient ranging from current mean annual temperatures of 5.5-11.4 °C and with mean annual precipitation sums of 586-929 mm. Initial data for the simulation consisted of 23 triplets established in pure and mixed stands of Q. spp. and P. sylvestris. After doing the simulations until 2100, we fitted a linear mixed model using the predicted volume in the year 2100 as response variable to describe the general trends in the simulation results. Productivity decreased for both Q. spp. and P. sylvestris with increasing temperature, and more so, for the warmer sites of the gradient. P. sylvestris is the more productive tree species in the current climate scenario, but the competitive advantage shifts to Q. spp., which is capable to endure very high negative water potentials, for the more severe climate change scenario. The Q. spp.-P. sylvestris mixture presents an intermediate resilience to increased scenario severity. Enrichment of P. sylvestris stands by creating mixtures with Q. spp., but not the opposite, might be a right silvicultural adaptive strategy, especially at lower latitudes. Tree species mixing can only partly compensate productivity losses due to climate change. This may, however, be possible in combination with other silvicultural adaptation strategies, such as thinning and uneven-aged management.

Large, sustained soil CO2 efflux but rapid recovery of CH4 oxidation in post-harvest and post-fire stands in a mixedwood boreal forest

The net effect of forest disturbances, such as fires and harvesting, on soil greenhouse gas fluxes is determined by their impacts on both biological and physical factors, as well as the temporal dynamics of these effects post-disturbance. Although harvesting and fire may have distinct effects on soil carbon (C) dynamics, the temporal patterns in soil CO2 and CH4 fluxes and the potential differences between types of disturbances, remain poorly characterized in boreal forests. In this study, we measured soil CO2 and CH4 fluxes using a off-axis integrated cavity output spectroscopy system in snow-free seasons over two years in post-harvest and post-fire chronosequence sites within a mixedwood boreal forest in northwestern Ontario, Canada. Soil CO2 efflux showed a post-disturbance peak, with differing dynamics depending on the disturbance type: post-harvest stands exhibited a nearly tenfold increase (from ∼1 to ∼11 μmol CO2.m-2.s-1) from 1 to 9-10 years post-disturbance, followed by a steep decline; post-fire stands showed a more gradual increase, peaking at ∼6-7.2 μmol CO2.m-2.s-1 after ∼12-15 years. The youngest post-harvest stands were net sources of CH4,whereas post-fire stands were never net CH4 sources. In both disturbance types, the strength of the CH4 sink increased with stand age, approaching ∼2.4 nmol.m-2.s-1 by 15 years post-disturbance. Volumetric water content, bulk density, litter depth, and pH were significant predictors of CO2 fluxes; for CH4 fluxes, litter depth, pH, and the interaction of VWC and soil temperature were significant predictors in both disturbance types, with EC also showing a relationship in post-harvest stands. Our findings indicate that while soil CH4 oxidation rapidly recovers following disturbance, both post-harvest and post-fire stands show a multi-decade release of soil CO2 that is too large to be offset by C gains over this period.

Shedding light on the increased carbon uptake by a boreal forest under diffuse solar radiation across multiple scales

Solar radiation is scattered by cloud cover, aerosols and other particles in the atmosphere, all of which are affected by global changes. Furthermore, the diffuse fraction of solar radiation is increased by more frequent forest fires and likewise would be if climate interventions such as stratospheric aerosol injection were adopted. Forest ecosystem studies predict that an increase in diffuse radiation would result in higher productivity, but ecophysiological data are required to identify the processes responsible within the forest canopy. In our study, the response of a boreal forest to direct, diffuse and heterogeneous solar radiation conditions was examined during the daytime in the growing season to determine how carbon uptake is affected by radiation conditions at different scales. A 10-year data set of ecosystem, shoot and forest floor vegetation carbon and water-flux data was examined. Ecosystem-level carbon assimilation was higher under diffuse radiation conditions in comparison with direct radiation conditions at equivalent total photosynthetically active radiation (PAR). This was driven by both an increase in shoot and forest floor vegetation photosynthetic rate. Most notably, ecosystem-scale productivity was strongly related to the absolute amount of diffuse PAR, since it integrates both changes in total PAR and diffuse fraction. This finding provides a gateway to explore the processes by which absolute diffuse PAR enhances productivity, and the long-term persistence of this effect under scenarios of higher global diffuse radiation.

'How to adapt forests?'-Exploring the role of leaf trait diversity for long-term forest biomass under new climate normals

Forests, critical components of global ecosystems, face unprecedented challenges due to climate change. This study investigates the influence of functional diversity-as a component of biodiversity-to enhance long-term biomass of European forests in the context of changing climatic conditions. Using the next-generation flexible trait-based vegetation model, LPJmL-FIT, we explored the impact of functional diversity on long-term forest biomass under three different climate change scenarios (video abstract: https://www.pik-potsdam.de/~billing/video/2023/video_abstract_billing_et_al_LPJmLFIT.mp4). Four model set-ups were tested with varying degrees of functional diversity and best-suited functional traits. Our results show that functional diversity positively influences long-term forest biomass, particularly when climate warming is low (RCP2.6). Under these conditions, high-diversity simulations led to an approximately 18.2% increase in biomass compared to low-diversity experiments. However, as climate change intensity increased, the benefits of functional diversity diminished (RCP8.5). A Bayesian multilevel analysis revealed that both full leaf trait diversity and diversity of plant functional types contributed significantly to biomass enhancement under low warming scenarios in our model simulations. Under strong climate change, the presence of a mixture of different functional groups (e.g. summergreen and evergreen broad-leaved trees) was found more beneficial than the diversity of leaf traits within a functional group (e.g. broad-leaved summergreen trees). Ultimately, this research challenges the notion that planting only the most productive and climate-suited trees guarantees the highest future biomass and carbon sequestration. We underscore the importance of high functional diversity and the potential benefits of fostering a mixture of tree functional types to enhance long-term forest biomass in the face of climate change.

Ecosystem services at risk from disturbance in Europe's forests

Global change impacts on disturbances can strongly compromise the capacity of forests to provide ecosystem services to society. In addition, many ecosystem services in Europe are simultaneously provided by forests, emphasizing the importance of multifunctionality in forest ecosystem assessments. To address disturbances in forest ecosystem policies and management, spatially explicit risk analyses that consider multiple disturbances and ecosystem services are needed. However, we do not yet know which ecosystem services are most at risk from disturbances in Europe, where the respective risk hotspots are, nor which of the main disturbance agents are most detrimental to the provisioning of multiple ecosystem services from Europe's forests. Here, we quantify the risk of losing important ecosystem services (timber supply, carbon storage, soil erosion control and outdoor recreation) to forest disturbances (windthrows, bark beetle outbreaks and wildfires) in Europe on a continental scale. We find that up to 12% of Europe's ecosystem service supply is at risk from current disturbances. Soil erosion control is the ecosystem service at the highest risk, and windthrow is the disturbance agent posing the highest risk. Disturbances challenge forest multifunctionality by threatening multiple ecosystem services simultaneously on 19.8 Mha (9.7%) of Europe's forests. Our results highlight priority areas for risk management aiming to safeguard the sustainable provisioning of forest ecosystem services.

Abiotic factors impact on oak forest decline in Lorestan Province, Western Iran

The Zagros oak forests in Iran are facing a concerning decline due to prolonged and severe drought conditions over several decades, compounded by the simultaneous impact of temperature on oak populations. This study in oak woodlands of central Zagros forests in Lorestan province analyzed abiotic factors such as climate properties, topographic features, land use, and soil properties from 1958 to 2022. We found that higher elevation areas with steeper slopes and diverse topography show significant potential for enhancing oak tree resilience in the face of climate change. Additionally, traditional land use practices like livestock keeping and dryland farming contribute to a widespread decline in oak populations. Preserving forest biodiversity and ensuring ecological sustainability requires immediate attention. Implementing effective land-use management strategies, such as protecting and regulating human-forest interaction, and considering meteorological factors to address this issue is crucial. Collaborative efforts from stakeholders, policymakers, and local communities are essential to oppose destructive suburban sprawl and other developments. Sustainable forestry practices should be implemented to improve the living standards of local communities that rely on forests and traditional livestock keeping, offer forestry-related jobs, and ensure social security. Such efforts are necessary to promote conservation awareness and sustainable practices, safeguarding this unique and vital ecosystem for future generations.

Gene expression plasticity facilitates different host feeding in Ips sexdentatus (Coleoptera: Curculionidae: Scolytinae)

Host shift is ecologically advantageous and a crucial driver for herbivore insect speciation. Insects on the non-native host obtain enemy-free space and confront reduced competition, but they must adapt to survive. Such signatures of adaptations can often be detected at the gene expression level. It is astonishing how bark beetles cope with distinct chemical environments while feeding on various conifers. Hence, we aim to disentangle the six-toothed bark beetle (Ips sexdentatus) response against two different conifer defences upon host shift (Scots pine to Norway spruce). We conducted bioassay and metabolomic analysis followed by RNA-seq experiments to comprehend the beetle's ability to surpass two different terpene-based conifer defence systems. Beetle growth rate and fecundity were increased when reared exclusively on spruce logs (alternative host) compared to pine logs (native host). Comparative gene expression analysis identified differentially expressed genes (DEGs) related to digestion, detoxification, transporter activity, growth, signalling, and stress response in the spruce-feeding beetle gut. Transporter genes were highly abundant during spruce feeding, suggesting they could play a role in pumping a wide variety of endogenous and xenobiotic compounds or allelochemicals out. Trehalose transporter (TRET) is also up-regulated in the spruce-fed beetle gut to maintain homeostasis and stress tolerance. RT-qPCR and enzymatic assays further corroborated some of our findings. Taken together, the transcriptional plasticity of key physiological genes plays a crucial role after the host shift and provides vital clues for the adaptive potential of bark beetles on different conifer hosts.

Adapted forest management to improve the potential for reindeer husbandry in Northern Sweden

In northern Sweden, improvements of grazing conditions are necessary for the continuation of traditional, natural pasture-based reindeer husbandry. Ground and tree lichen constitute the main fodder resource for reindeer during winter but have reached critically low levels. Using a forest decision support system, we prescribe adapted forest management to improve the preconditions for reindeer husbandry and compare outcomes with the continuation of current forest management. We found that adapted management increases the forest area with ground lichen habitat by 22% already within 15 years, while a continuation of current management would result in a further decrease in ground lichen. Tree lichen habitat can be retained and increased in all scenarios, which is important in a changing climate. Compared to a continuation of current practices, adapted management with significantly improved conditions for lichen resulted in a decrease in net revenues from wood production by 11-22%.

Enhancing multifunctionality in European boreal forests: The potential role of Triad landscape functional zoning

Land-use policies aim at enhancing the sustainable use of natural resources. The Triad approach has been suggested to balance the social, ecological, and economic demands of forested landscapes. The core idea is to enhance multifunctionality at the landscape level by allocating landscape zones with specific management priorities, i.e., production (intensive management), multiple use (extensive management), and conservation (forest reserves). We tested the efficiency of the Triad approach and identified the respective proportion of above-mentioned zones needed to enhance multifunctionality in Finnish forest landscapes. Through a simulation and optimization framework, we explored a range of scenarios of the three zones and evaluated how changing their relative proportion (each ranging from 0 to 100%) impacted landscape multifunctionality, measured by various biodiversity and ecosystem service indicators. The results show that maximizing multifunctionality required around 20% forest area managed intensively, 50% extensively, and 30% allocated to forest reserves. In our case studies, such landscape zoning represented a good compromise between the studied multifunctionality components and maintained 61% of the maximum achievable net present value (i.e., total timber economic value). Allocating specific proportion of the landscape to a management zone had distinctive effects on the optimized economic or multifunctionality values. Net present value was only moderately impacted by shifting from intensive to extensive management, while multifunctionality benefited from less intensive and more diverse management regimes. This is the first study to apply Triad in a European boreal forest landscape, highlighting the usefulness of this approach. Our results show the potential of the Triad approach in promoting forest multifunctionality, as well as a strong trade-off between net present value and multifunctionality. We conclude that simply applying the Triad approach does not implicitly contribute to an overall increase in forest multifunctionality, as careful forest management planning still requires clear landscape objectives.

Leveraging research infrastructure co-location to evaluate constraints on terrestrial carbon cycling in northern European forests

Integrated long-term, in-situ observations are needed to document ongoing environmental change, to "ground-truth" remote sensing and model outputs and to predict future Earth system behaviour. The scientific and societal value of in-situ observations increases with site representativeness, temporal duration, number of parameters measured and comparability within and across sites. Research Infrastructures (RIs) can support harmonised, cross-site data collection, curation and publication. Integrating RI networks through site co-location and standardised observation methods can help answers three questions about the terrestrial carbon sink: (i) What are present and future carbon sequestration rates in northern European forests? (ii) How are these rates controlled? (iii) Why do the observed patterns exist? Here, we present a conceptual model for RI co-location and highlight potential insights into the terrestrial carbon sink achievable when long-term in-situ Earth observation sites participate in multiple RI networks (e.g., ICOS and eLTER). Finally, we offer recommendations to promote RI co-location.

Integrating carbon sequestration and biodiversity impacts in forested ecosystems: Concepts, cases, and policies

The challenges posed by climate change, biodiversity loss, and land-use are deeply interconnected and integrated solutions are needed. This paper presents results from 11 contributions to a special issue covering topics of integrated modeling and spatial prioritization, mass-balance studies, Earth Observation techniques, research infrastructure developments, and evaluation of policy measures and economic compensation schemes. The spatial scale of the studies ranges from detailed site-specific to a European scale. This paper briefly summarizes the main findings of these studies, makes some general overall conclusions, and identifies topics for further research and methods developments.

Quantification of forest carbon flux and stock uncertainties under climate change and their use in regionally explicit decision making: Case study in Finland

Uncertainties are essential, yet often neglected, information for evaluating the reliability in forest carbon balance projections used in national and regional policy planning. We analysed uncertainties in the forest net biome exchange (NBE) and carbon stocks under multiple management and climate scenarios with a process-based ecosystem model. Sampled forest initial state values, model parameters, harvest levels and global climate models (GCMs) served as inputs in Monte Carlo simulations, which covered forests of the 18 regions of mainland Finland over the period 2015-2050. Under individual scenarios, the results revealed time- and region-dependent variability in the magnitude of uncertainty and mean values of the NBE projections. The main sources of uncertainty varied with time, by region and by the amount of harvested wood. Combinations of uncertainties in the representative concentration pathways scenarios, GCMs, forest initial values and model parameters were the main sources of uncertainty at the beginning, while the harvest scenarios dominated by the end of the simulation period, combined with GCMs and climate scenarios especially in the north. Our regionally explicit uncertainty analysis was found a useful approach to reveal the variability in the regional potentials to reach a policy related, future target level of NBE, which is important information when planning realistic and regionally fair national policy actions.

Modelling the regional potential for reaching carbon neutrality in Finland: Sustainable forestry, energy use and biodiversity protection

The EU aims at reaching carbon neutrality by 2050 and Finland by 2035. We integrated results of three spatially distributed model systems (FRES, PREBAS, Zonation) to evaluate the potential to reach this goal at both national and regional scale in Finland, by simultaneously considering protection targets of the EU biodiversity (BD) strategy. Modelling of both anthropogenic emissions and forestry measures were carried out, and forested areas important for BD protection were identified based on spatial prioritization. We used scenarios until 2050 based on mitigation measures of the national climate and energy strategy, forestry policies and predicted climate change, and evaluated how implementation of these scenarios would affect greenhouse gas fluxes, carbon storages, and the possibility to reach the carbon neutrality target. Potential new forested areas for BD protection according to the EU 10% protection target provided a significant carbon storage (426-452 TgC) and sequestration potential (- 12 to - 17.5 TgCO2eq a-1) by 2050, indicating complementarity of emission mitigation and conservation measures. The results of the study can be utilized for integrating climate and BD policies, accounting of ecosystem services for climate regulation, and delimitation of areas for conservation.

European forests under global climate change: Review of tree growth processes, crises and management strategies

The ongoing global climate change is challenging all sectors, forestry notwithstanding. On the one hand, forest ecosystems are exposed to and threatened by climate change, but on the other hand, forests can influence the course of climate change by regulating the water regime, air quality, carbon sequestration, and even reduce climate extremes. Therefore, it is crucial to see climate change not only as a risk causing forest disturbances and economic consequences but also as an opportunity for innovative approaches to forest management, conservation, and silviculture based on the results of long-term research. We reviewed 365 studies evaluating the impact of climate change on European forest ecosystems, all published during the last 30 years (1993-2022). The most significant consequences of climate change include more frequent and destructive large-scale forest disturbances (wildfire, windstorm, drought, flood, bark beetle, root rot), and tree species migration. Species distribution shifts and changes in tree growth rate have substantial effects on ecosystem carbon storage. Diameter/volume increment changed from -1 to +99% in Central and Northern Europe, while it decreased from -12 to -49% in Southern Europe across tree species over the last ca. 50 years. However, it is important to sharply focus on the causes of climate change and subsequently, on adaptive strategies, which can successfully include the creation of species-diverse, spatially and age-wise structured stands (decrease drought stress and increase production), prolongation of the regenerative period, or the use of suitable introduced tree species (e.g., Douglas fir, black pine, and Mediterranean oaks). But the desired changes are based on increasing diversity and the mitigation of climate change, and will require significantly higher initial costs for silviculture practices. In conclusion, the scope and complexity of the topic require further comprehensive and long-term studies focusing on international cooperation. We see a critical gap in the transfer of research results into actual forest practice, which will be the key factor influencing afforestation of forest stands and forest growth in the following decades. What our forests will look like for future generations and what the resulting impact of climate change will be on forestry is in the hands of forest managers, depending on supportive forestry research and climate change policy, including adaptive and mitigation strategies.

Spatiotemporal dynamics of forest insect populations under climate change

Effects of climate on forest insect populations are complex, often involving drivers that are opposing, nonlinear, and nonadditive. Overall, climate change is driving an increase in outbreaks and range shifts. Links between climate and forest insect dynamics are becoming clearer; however, the underlying mechanisms remain less clear. Climate alters forest insect population dynamics directly through life history, physiology, and voltinism, and indirectly through effects on host trees and natural enemies. Climatic effects on bark beetles, wood-boring insects, and sap-suckers are often indirect, through effects on host-tree susceptibility, whereas climatic effects on defoliators are comparatively more direct. We recommend process-based approaches to global distribution mapping and population models to identify the underlying mechanisms and enable effective management of forest insects.

Future supply of boreal forest ecosystem services is driven by management rather than by climate change

Forests provide a wide variety of ecosystem services (ES) to society. The boreal biome is experiencing the highest rates of warming on the planet and increasing demand for forest products. To foresee how to maximize the adaptation of boreal forests to future warmer conditions and growing demands of forest products, we need a better understanding of the relative importance of forest management and climate change on the supply of ecosystem services. Here, using Finland as a boreal forest case study, we assessed the potential supply of a wide range of ES (timber, bilberry, cowberry, mushrooms, carbon storage, scenic beauty, species habitat availability and deadwood) given seven management regimes and four climate change scenarios. We used the forest simulator SIMO to project forest dynamics for 100 years into the future (2016-2116) and estimate the potential supply of each service using published models. Then, we tested the relative importance of management and climate change as drivers of the future supply of these services using generalized linear mixed models. Our results show that the effects of management on the future supply of these ES were, on average, 11 times higher than the effects of climate change across all services, but greatly differed among them (from 0.53 to 24 times higher for timber and cowberry, respectively). Notably, the importance of these drivers substantially differed among biogeographical zones within the boreal biome. The effects of climate change were 1.6 times higher in northern Finland than in southern Finland, whereas the effects of management were the opposite-they were three times higher in the south compared to the north. We conclude that new guidelines for adapting forests to global change should account for regional differences and the variation in the effects of climate change and management on different forest ES.

Influence of prescribed burning on reindeer winter pastures at landscape scale in northern Sweden: A modelling approach

Whilst the re-introduction of fire can contribute to biodiversity conservation in Fennoscandian forests, the effects on reindeer herding remain uncertain. To assess the short- and long-term effects of prescribed burning on lichen supply in a productive forest landscape, we developed a model simulating lichen biomass available for reindeer grazing, covering 300 years and 1500 pine stands, under different soil preparation scenarios, including different prescribed burning regimes and mechanical scarification. Our simulations revealed that burning 25-50% of yearly clear-cuts has the potential to stop, or even reverse, reindeer lichen decline at landscape scale after 70 years, greatly surpassing the short-term losses caused by burning. No burning or burning 5% of yearly clear-cuts, as required by the FSC certification, compounded the negative effects of fire suppression and scarification on lichen. Compared to the scenario with no soil preparation, all our simulations resulted in a continuous decrease of lichen supply in Lichen-type stands, indicating that any form of disturbance in these habitats can strongly limit future gains.

Extreme temperature events reduced carbon uptake of a boreal forest ecosystem in Northeast China: Evidence from an 11-year eddy covariance observation

Boreal forests, the second continental biome on Earth, are known for their massive carbon storage capacity and important role in the global carbon cycle. Comprehending the temporal dynamics and controlling factors of net ecosystem CO₂ exchange (NEE) is critical for predicting how the carbon exchange in boreal forests will change in response to climate change. Therefore, based on long-term eddy covariance observations from 2008 to 2018, we evaluated the diurnal, seasonal, and interannual variations in the boreal forest ecosystem NEE in Northeast China and explored its environmental regulation. It was found that the boreal forest was a minor CO₂ sink with an annual average NEE of -64.01 (± 24.23) g CO₂ m^-2 yr^-1. The diurnal variation in the NEE of boreal forest during the growing season was considerably larger than that during the non-growing season, and carbon uptake peaked between 8:30 and 9:30 in the morning. The seasonal variation in NEE demonstrated a "U" shaped curve, and the carbon uptake peaked in July. On a half-hourly scale, photosynthetically active radiation and vapor pressure deficit had larger impacts on daytime NEE during the growing season. However, temperature had major control on NEE during the growing season at night and during the non-growing season. On a daily scale, temperature was the dominant factor controlling seasonal variation in NEE. Occurrence of extreme temperature days, especially extreme temperature events, would reduce boreal forest carbon uptake; interannual variation in NEE was substantially associated with the maximum CO₂ uptake rate during the growing season. This study deepens our understanding of environmental controls on NEE at multiple timescales and provides a data basis for evaluating the global carbon budget.

Effects of elevated ozone and warming on terpenoid emissions and concentrations of Norway spruce depend on needle phenology and age

Norway spruce (Picea abies (L.) Karst) trees are affected by ongoing climate change, including warming and exposure to phytotoxic levels of ozone. Non-volatile terpenoids and volatile terpenoids (biogenic organic volatile compounds, BVOCs) protect spruce against biotic and abiotic stresses. BVOCs also affect the atmosphere's oxidative capacity. Four-year-old Norway spruce were exposed to elevated ozone (EO) (1.4 × ambient) and warming (1.1 °C + ambient air) alone and in combination on an open-field exposure site in Central Finland. Net photosynthesis, needle terpenoid concentrations and BVOC emissions were measured four times during the experiment's second growing season: after bud opening in May, during the mid-growing season in June, and after needle maturation in August and September. Warming increased terpene concentrations in May due to advanced phenology and decreased them at the end of the growing season in matured current-year needles. Ozone enhanced these effects of warming on several compounds. Warming decreased concentrations of oxygenated sesquiterpenes in previous-year needles. Decreased emissions of oxygenated monoterpenes by warming and ozone alone in May were less prominent when ozone and warming were combined. A similar interactive treatment response in isoprene, camphene, tricyclene and α-pinene was observed in August when the temperature and ozone concentration was high. The results suggest long-term warming may reduce the terpenoid-based defence capacity of young spruce, but the defence capacity can be increased during the most sensitive growth phase (after bud break), and when high temperatures or ozone concentrations co-occur. Reduced BVOC emissions from young spruce may decrease the atmosphere's oxidative capacity in the warmer future, but the effect of EO may be marginal because less reactive minor compounds are affected.

Insect Herbivory Caused Plant Stress Emissions Increases the Negative Radiative Forcing of Aerosols

Plant stress in a changing climate is predicted to increase plant volatile organic compound (VOC) emissions and thus can affect the formed secondary organic aerosol (SOA) concentrations, which in turn affect the radiative properties of clouds and aerosol. However, global aerosol-climate models do not usually consider plant stress induced VOCs in their emission schemes. In this study, we modified the monoterpene emission factors in biogenic emission model to simulate biotic stress caused by insect herbivory on needleleaf evergreen boreal and broadleaf deciduous boreal trees and studied the consequent effects on SOA formation, aerosol-cloud interactions as well as direct radiative effects of formed SOA. Simulations were done altering the fraction of stressed and healthy trees in the latest version of ECHAM-HAMMOZ (ECHAM6.3-HAM2.3-MOZ1.0) global aerosol-climate model. Our simulations showed that increasing the extent of stress to the aforementioned tree types, substantially increased the SOA burden especially over the areas where these trees are located. This indicates that increased VOC emissions due to increasing stress enhance the SOA formation via oxidation of VOCs to low VOCs. In addition, cloud droplet number concentration at the cloud top increased with increasing extent of biotic stress. This indicates that as SOA formation increases, it further enhances the number of particles acting as cloud condensation nuclei. The increase in SOA formation also decreased both all-sky and clear-sky radiative forcing. This was due to a shift in particle size distributions that enhanced aerosol reflecting and scattering of incoming solar radiation.

Feature extraction and classification of climate change risks: a bibliometric analysis

Risks brought by climate change are inevitable obstacles to global development. Clarifying the features of climate change risks helps us to further understand and cope with climate change. There lacks a systematic review of climate change risks in terms of feature extraction and classification. The bibliometric analysis can be used to analyze and extract climate change risk features. The literature in the field of climate change was searched in the Web of Science database. Coauthors, citations, bibliographic coupling, co-citations, and keyword co-occurrence were analyzed. From five dimensions including nature, politics, economy, society, and culture, the risk features of climate change were extracted and summarized. Through text mining and cluster analysis, the climate change risk feature system was established, which is embodied in five different aspects: ecosystem and sustainability; uncertainty, vulnerability, and efficiency; behavior and decision-making; governance and management; and adaptation and mitigation. The feature system reflects that the current climate change risk presents strong variability and that the risk boundary is gradually blurred. The areas affected by risk are expanding and deepening. The strategies and governance for addressing risks are gradually diversified. This research contributes to the domain of climate change risk identification and assessment. The features of climate change indicate that we need to adjust policymaking and managerial practices for climate change in the future. Interdisciplinary cooperation, human cognition and preferences, public participation in global governance, and other unnatural factors related to climate change should be strengthened with a more positive attitude.

A Review on the Observed Climate Change in Europe and Its Impacts on Viticulture

The European climate is changing displaying profound on agriculture, thus strongly reaching the scientific community’s attention. In this review, the compilation of selected scientific research on the agroclimatic conditions’ changes and their impact on the productivity parameters (phenology timing, product quality and quantity) of grapevines and on the spatiotemporal characteristics of the viticultural areas are attempted for the first time. For this purpose, a thorough investigation through multiple search queries was conducted for the period (2005–2021). Overall, increasing (decreasing) trends in critical temperature (precipitation) parameters are the reality of the recent past with visible impacts on viticulture. The observed climate warming already enforces emerging phenomena related to the modification of the developmental rate (earlier phenological events, shortening of phenological intervals, lengthening of the growing season, earlier harvest), the alteration of product quality, the heterogeneous effects on grapevine yield and the emergence of new cool-climate viticulture areas highlighting the cultivation’s rebirth in the northern and central parts of the continent. The vulnerability of the wine-growing ecosystem urges the integration of innovative and sustainable solutions for confronting the impacts of climate change and safeguarding the production (quantity and quality) capacity of viticultural systems in Europe under a continuously changing environment.

Responses in growth and emissions of biogenic volatile organic compounds in Scots pine, Norway spruce and silver birch seedlings to different warming treatments in a controlled field experiment

We investigated the responses in growth and emissions of biogenic volatile organic compounds (BVOCs) in Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L.), Norway spruce (Picea abies [L.] Karst.) and silver birch (Betula pendula Roth) seedlings to a simulated climate warming of +2 °C (T2) and +4 °C (T4), compared to the ambient conditions, during two growing seasons (2019-2020) in a controlled field experiment in central Finland. In all seedlings, height was measured weekly. Diameter was measured continuously for one seedling from each tree species per plot. For shoot and root biomass measurements, half of the seedlings were harvested at end of the first growing season and the rest at the end of the second growing season. Foliage BVOC emission rates were measured at the end of the second growing season. Biomass, height, and diameter growth of silver birch did benefit the most from warming in both growing seasons. In the Scots pine and Norway spruce seedlings, height and diameter growth increased with increasing temperature in the second growing season, more so in Scots pine. Overall, the shoot and root biomass of conifer seedlings increased with increasing temperature. In the conifer seedlings, warming increased biomass and diameter growth more than height growth, due to their predetermined height growth pattern. The warming increased BVOC emissions more clearly in silver birch, whilst the BVOC emissions were in conifers less sensitive to temperature variation. Based on our findings, silver birch seedlings could be expected to benefit the most from warmer growing conditions and Norway spruce the least.

Multiple drivers of large-scale lichen decline in boreal forest canopies

Thin, hair-like lichens (Alectoria, Bryoria, Usnea) form conspicuous epiphyte communities across the boreal biome. These poikilohydric organisms provide important ecosystem functions and are useful indicators of global change. We analyse how environmental drivers influence changes in occurrence and length of these lichens on Norway spruce (Picea abies) over 10 years in managed forests in Sweden using data from >6000 trees. Alectoria and Usnea showed strong declines in southern-central regions, whereas Bryoria declined in northern regions. Overall, relative loss rates across the country ranged from 1.7% per year in Alectoria to 0.5% in Bryoria. These losses contrasted with increased length of Bryoria and Usnea in some regions. Occurrence trajectories (extinction, colonization, presence, absence) on remeasured trees correlated best with temperature, rain, nitrogen deposition, and stand age in multinomial logistic regression models. Our analysis strongly suggests that industrial forestry, in combination with nitrogen, is the main driver of lichen declines. Logging of forests with long continuity of tree cover, short rotation cycles, substrate limitation and low light in dense forests are harmful for lichens. Nitrogen deposition has decreased but is apparently still sufficiently high to prevent recovery. Warming correlated with occurrence trajectories of Alectoria and Bryoria, likely by altering hydration regimes and increasing respiration during autumn/winter. The large-scale lichen decline on an important host has cascading effects on biodiversity and function of boreal forest canopies. Forest management must apply a broad spectrum of methods, including uneven-aged continuous cover forestry and retention of large patches, to secure the ecosystem functions of these important canopy components under future climates. Our findings highlight interactions among drivers of lichen decline (forestry, nitrogen, climate), functional traits (dispersal, lichen colour, sensitivity to nitrogen, water storage), and population processes (extinction/colonization).

Impact of Forest Harvesting Intensity and Water Table on Biodegradability of Dissolved Organic Carbon in Boreal Peat in an Incubation Experiment

Boreal peatlands are vast carbon (C) stores but also major sources of dissolved organic C (DOC) and nutrients to surface waters. Drainage and forest harvesting accelerates DOC leaching. Continuous cover forestry (CCF) is considered to cause fewer adverse environmental effects. Yet, the effects of CCF on DOC processes are unrecognised. We study DOC production and quality in unharvested, CCF, and clear-cut drained peatland forests and in a non-forested alluvial sedge fen. Parallel replicate peat columns with ground vegetation are collected from the uppermost 50 cm at each site, and the water table (WT) is set to −20 or −40 cm depths on the columns. During the eight-month ex situ incubation experiment, the soil water samples are extracted monthly or bi-monthly. The samples are incubated at 15 °C for multiple 72 h incubation cycles to study pore water quality and biodegradation of DOC. The CO2 production occurs during the first three days. The DOC concentrations and the CO2 release per volume of water are significantly lower in the sedge fen than in the drained peatland forests. The WT has a negligible effect on DOC concentrations and no effect on DOC quality, but the higher WT has generally higher CO2 production per DOC than the lower WT. The results suggest that peat in the drained peatlands is not vulnerable to changes per se but that forest management alters biotic and abiotic factors that control the production, transport, and biodegradation of DOC.

The dark septate endophyte Phialocephala sphaeroides confers growth fitness benefits and mitigates pathogenic effects of Heterobasidion on Norway spruce

Forest trees frequently interact with a diverse range of microorganisms including dark septate endophytes (DSEs) and fungal pathogens. Plant defense responses to either individual pathogens or endophytes have been widely studied, but very little is known on the effect of coinfection on host defenses. To study the impact of coinfection or tripartite interaction on plant growth and host defenses, Norway spruce (Picea abies (L.) Karst) seedlings were inoculated with a DSE Phialocephala sphaeroides or with a root pathogen Heterobasidion parviporum Niemela & Korhonen or coinfected with both fungi. The results showed that the DSE promoted the root growth of spruce seedlings. Control seedlings without any inoculum were subjected to sequencing and used as a baseline for identification of differentially expressed genes (DEGs). RNA-seq analysis of seedlings inoculated with P. sphaeroides, infected with H. parviporum or coinfected with both fungi resulted in a total of 5269 DEGs. The majority of DEGs were found in P. sphaeroides-inoculated seedlings. Lignin biosynthesis pathways were generally activated during fungal infections. The pattern was distinct with endophyte inoculation. The majority of the genes in the flavonoid biosynthesis pathway were generally suppressed during fungal infections. A specific transcriptional response to P. sphaeroides inoculation was the increased transcripts of genes involved in jasmonic acid biosynthesis, mitogen-activated protein kinases signaling pathway, plant hormone signal transduction and calcium-mediated signaling. This may have potentially contributed to promoting the root growth of seedlings. Although the coinfection suppressed the induction of numerous genes, no negative effect on the growth of the spruce seedlings occurred. We conclude that the subsequent H. parviporum infection triggered reprogramming of host metabolism. Conversely, the endophyte (P. sphaeroides), on the other hand, counteracted the negative effects of H. parviporum on the growth of the spruce seedlings.

Fire Occurrence in Hemi-Boreal Forests: Exploring Natural and Cultural Scots Pine Fire Regimes Using Dendrochronology in Lithuania

Fire is an important natural disturbance and a driver of hemi-boreal forest successional trajectories, structural complexity, and biodiversity. Understanding the historic fire regime is an important step towards sustainable forest management. Focusing on Lithuania’s hemi-boreal forests, we first mapped the potential natural fire regimes based on the relationship between site conditions, vegetation, and fire frequency using the ASIO model. The ASIO model revealed that all the fire frequency categories (Absent, Seldom, Intermittent, Often) are found in Lithuania. Scots pine forests dominated the often fire frequency category (92%). Secondly, focusing on a fire-prone forest landscape, Dzūkija, we analyzed the fire occurrence of Scots pine forest types using dendrochronological records. We sampled and cross-dated 132 Scots pine samples with fire scars from four dry forest stands (n = 92) and four peatland forest stands (n = 40), respectively. In total, the fire history analysis revealed 455 fire scars and 213 fire events during the period of 1742–2019. The Weibull median fire intervals were 2.7 years (range 1–34) for the dry forest types and 6.3 years (range 1–27) for the peatland forest types. Analysis pre- and post-1950 showed the Weibull median fire interval increased from 2.2 to 7.2 for the dry forest types but decreased from 6.2 to 5.2. for the peatland forest types. A superposed epoch analysis revealed significant precipitation fluxes prior to the fire events after 1950. Thus, the Dzūkija landscape of Lithuania has been strongly shaped by both human and naturally induced fires. The combination of theory (the ASIO model) with the examination of biological archives can be used to help guide sustainable forest management to emulate forest disturbances related to fire. As traditional forest management focusing on wood production has eliminated fire, and effectively simplified forest ecosystems, we recommend introducing educational programs to communicate the benefits and history of forest fires as well as adaptive management trials that use low-intensity prescribed burning of Scots pine stands.

Reducing model uncertainty of climate change impacts on high latitude carbon assimilation

The Arctic-Boreal Region (ABR) has a large impact on global vegetation-atmosphere interactions and is experiencing markedly greater warming than the rest of the planet, a trend that is projected to continue with anticipated future emissions of CO₂ . The ABR is a significant source of uncertainty in estimates of carbon uptake in terrestrial biosphere models such that reducing this uncertainty is critical for more accurately estimating global carbon cycling and understanding the response of the region to global change. Process representation and parameterization associated with gross primary productivity (GPP) drives a large amount of this model uncertainty, particularly within the next 50 years, where the response of existing vegetation to climate change will dominate estimates of GPP for the region. Here we review our current understanding and model representation of GPP in northern latitudes, focusing on vegetation composition, phenology, and physiology, and consider how climate change alters these three components. We highlight challenges in the ABR for predicting GPP, but also focus on the unique opportunities for advancing knowledge and model representation, particularly through the combination of remote sensing and traditional boots-on-the-ground science.

Estimation of Boreal Forest Growing Stock Volume in Russia from Sentinel-2 MSI and Land Cover Classification

Growing stock volume (GSV) is a fundamental parameter of forests, closely related to the above-ground biomass and hence to carbon storage. Estimation of GSV at regional to global scales depends on the use of satellite remote sensing data, although accuracies are generally lower over the sparse boreal forest. This is especially true of boreal forest in Russia, for which knowledge of GSV is currently poor despite its global importance. Here we develop a new empirical method in which the primary remote sensing data source is a single summer Sentinel-2 MSI image, augmented by land-cover classification based on the same MSI image trained using MODIS-derived data. In our work the method is calibrated and validated using an extensive set of field measurements from two contrasting regions of the Russian arctic. Results show that GSV can be estimated with an RMS uncertainty of approximately 35–55%, comparable to other spaceborne estimates of low-GSV forest areas, with 70% spatial correspondence between our GSV maps and existing products derived from MODIS data. Our empirical approach requires somewhat laborious data collection when used for upscaling from field data, but could also be used to downscale global data.

Comparative Efficacy of State-of-the-Art and New Biological Stump Treatments in Forests Infested by the Native and the Alien Invasive Heterobasidion Species Present in Europe

The Heterobasidion annosum species complex includes major fungal pathogens of conifers worldwide. State-of-the-art preventative stump treatments with urea or with commercial formulations of the fungal biological control agent Phlebiopsis gigantea (i.e., Rotstop^®) may become no longer available or are not approved for use in many areas of Europe infested by the three native Heterobasidion species and by the North American invasive H. irregulare, making the development of new treatments timely. The efficacy of Proradix^® (based on Pseudomonas protegens strain DSMZ 13134), the cell-free filtrate (CFF) of the same bacterium, a strain of P. gigantea (MUT 6212) collected in the invasion area of H. irregulare in Italy, Rotstop^®, and urea was comparatively investigated on a total of 542 stumps of Abies alba, Picea abies, Pinus pinea, and P. sylvestris in forest stands infested by the host-associated Heterobasidion species. Additionally, 139 logs of P. pinea were also treated. Results support the good performances of Rotstop^®, and especially of urea against the native Heterobasidion species on stumps of their preferential hosts and, for the first time, towards the invasive North American H. irregulare on stumps of P. pinea. In some experiments, the effectiveness of Proradix^® and of the strain of P. gigantea was weak, whereas the CFF of P. protegens strain DSMZ 13134 performed as a valid alternative to urea and Rotstop^®. The mechanism of action of this treatment hinges on antibiosis; therefore, further improvements could be possible by identifying the active molecules and/or by optimizing their production. Generally, the performance of the tested treatments is not correlated with the stump size.

Mapping the probability of forest snow disturbances in Finland

The changing forest disturbance regimes emphasize the need for improved damage risk information. Here, our aim was to (1) improve the current understanding of snow damage risks by assessing the importance of abiotic factors, particularly the modelled snow load on trees, versus forest properties in predicting the probability of snow damage, (2) produce a snow damage probability map for Finland. We also compared the results for winters with typical snow load conditions and a winter with exceptionally heavy snow loads. To do this, we used damage observations from the Finnish national forest inventory (NFI) to create a statistical snow damage occurrence model, spatial data layers from different sources to use the model to predict the damage probability for the whole country in 16 x 16 m resolution. Snow damage reports from forest owners were used for testing the final map. Our results showed that best results were obtained when both abiotic and forest variables were included in the model. However, in the case of the high snow load winter, the model with only abiotic predictors performed nearly as well as the full model and the ability of the models to identify the snow damaged stands was higher than in other years. The results showed patterns of forest adaptation to high snow loads, as spruce stands in the north were less susceptible to damage than in southern areas and long-term snow load reduced the damage probability. The model and the derived wall-to-wall map were able to discriminate damage from no-damage cases on a good level (AUC > 0.7). The damage probability mapping approach identifies the drivers of snow disturbances across forest landscapes and can be used to spatially estimate the current and future disturbance probabilities in forests, informing practical forestry and decision-making and supporting the adaptation to the changing disturbance regimes.

Trends in Outbreaks of Defoliating Insects Highlight Growing Threats for Central European Forests and Implications for Eastern Baltic Region

To identify general patterns in the effect of climate-driven changes in the outbreak frequency of forest defoliating species, we examined 60 years of records (1950–2010) of outbreaks of five defoliating species. Data on Lymantria dispar, Lymantria monacha, Bupalus piniarius, Panolis flammea, and Operophtera brumata from five Central European countries (Slovakia, Czech Republic, Austria, Hungary, and Germany), where the current climate is comparable with the projections of climate for the Eastern Baltic region by the end of the 21st century, were analyzed. Time series approach was applied to estimate the linkage between outbreaks and climate warming. Mean annual, summer, and winter deviations for the period of 1850 to 1900 were assessed as proxies of warming. To estimate the legacy effect, warming proxies were lagged by one year. Among those tested, warming proxies showed a linkage with outbreaks. Three significant outbreaks occurred in the analyzed period (at the beginning and end of the period). During the middle part of the analyzed period, the frequency and magnitude of outbreaks were low, implicating a higher insect outbreak risk with warming in Central Europe. In the latter part of the analyzed period, more frequent yet smaller outbreaks occurred, which supports the outbreak linkage with one-year lag, summer, and annual temperatures.

Spatiotemporal Modeling of Coniferous Forests Dynamics along the Southern Edge of Their Range in the Central Russian Plain

Forests with predominance of Norway spruce (Picea abies (L.) H. Karst.) and Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L.) within the hemiboreal zone are considered as secondary communities formed under long-term human activity (logging, plowing, fires and silviculture). This study raises the question—how stable is current state of coniferous forests on the southern border of their natural distribution in the center of Eastern Europe using the example of the Moscow region (MR)? The object of the study are spruce and pine forests in different periods of Soviet and post-Soviet history within the Moscow Region (MR). The current proportion of spruce forests is 21.7%, and the proportion of pine forests is 18.5% from total forest area according to our estimates. The direction and rate of forest succession were analyzed based on current composition of populations of the main forest-forming species (spruce, pine, birch, aspen, oak, linden, and ash) based on ground-based research materials collected in 2006–2019. This allowed to develop the dynamic model (DM) of forest communities with the participation of Norway spruce and Scots pine for several decades. Assessment of the spatial distribution of coniferous communities is based on field data and spatial modeling using remote sensing data—Landsat 8 mosaic for 2020. In parallel, a retrospective model (RM) of the spatial-temporal organization of spruce and pine forests for a 30-year period was developed using two Landsat 5 mosaics. For this, nine different algorithms were tested and the best one for this task was found—random forest. Geobotanical relevés were used as a training sample combined with the 2006–2012 mosaic; the obtained spectral signatures were used for modeling based on the 1984–1990 mosaic. Thus, two multi-temporal spatial models of coniferous formations have been developed. Detailed analysis of the structure of spruce and pine forests based on field data made it possible to track trends of successional dynamics for the first time, considering the origin of communities and the ecological conditions of habitats. As a result, ideas about the viability of spruce and pine cenopopulations in different types of communities were formulated, which made possible to develop a dynamic model (DM) of changes in forest communities for future. Comparison of the areas and nature of changes in the spatial structure of coniferous formations made possible to develop the RM. Comparison of two different-time models of succession dynamics (DM and RM) makes possible to correct the main trends in the transformation of coniferous forests of natural and artificial origin under the existing regime of forestry. A set of features was identified that indicates risk factors for coniferous forests in the region. A further decrease of the spruce and pine plantations and increase of the spruce-small-leaved and deciduous formations are expected in the study area. The proportion of pine-spruce forests does not exceed 3% of the area and can be considered as the most vulnerable type of forest.

Wind Resistance of Eastern Baltic Silver Birch (Betula pendula Roth.) Suggests Its Suitability for Periodically Waterlogged Sites

Storms and wind damage are the main cause of biomass loss in forests of Northern Europe, as well as they are synergic with the disturbances causing intense water and temperature stress. This highlights the necessity for climate-smart management at landscape level coupling ecological demands of forestry species with their wind resistance. Silver birch (Betula pendula Roth.), which is highly plastic species, appears to be promising for a wider application under such conditions, as it is believed to tolerate wide range of weather conditions. Though silver birch can be sensitive to water deficit and windthrow, local information on its wind tolerance in sites with different moisture regimes is advantageous. Mechanical stability of 71 mid-aged silver birches (Betula pendula Roth.) growing in seven dry (Hylocomiosa) and five periodically waterlogged (Myrtilloso-sphagnosa) sites with mineral soils in Latvia (hemiboreal lowland conditions) were assessed by the destructive static pulling tests. Site type had a significant, yet intermediate effect on the stability of silver birch. As expected, trees under periodically waterlogged conditions were more prone to collapse under static loading, however, they showed a better resistance to primary failure (beginning of wood structure deformation). Uprooting was the most common form of tree collapse. Surprisingly, considering similar root depths, stem breakage was more frequent in the periodically waterlogged than dry sites (21.9 vs. 5.1%, respectively), indicating high loading resistance of roots, supporting high plasticity and wind resistance of the studied metapopulation of silver birch. Nevertheless, in the periodically waterlogged sites, the difference between forces needed to cause primary and secondary (collapse) failures of stem decreased with age/size, implying necessity for optimization of rotation length. Accordingly, quantification of wind resistance can aid climate-smart selection of species for forest regeneration depending on landscape, suggesting birch as wind resistant option under periodically waterlogged conditions.