Quantifying thermal exposure for migratory riverine species: Phenology of Chinook salmon populations predicts thermal stress

Fish reproductive phenology shifts with increasing temperature and year

Temperate fishes often spawn in response to environmental cues, such as temperature, thereby facilitating larval emergence concurrent with suitable biotic and abiotic conditions, such as plankton blooms. Climatic changes may alter the reproductive phenology of spring- and autumn-spawning freshwater fish populations. Such effects may depend on the sensitivity of reproductive phenology to ambient temperatures. We applied a meta-analysis approach to test whether annual temperature and year affected fish reproductive phenology. Based on preliminary tests in walleye (Sander vitreus) and Lake Constance whitefish (Coregonus arenicolus), we hypothesized that increasing temperature would promote earlier spring-spawning and later autumn-spawning. We found spawning was significantly earlier in the spring and later in the autumn. We found that migration of autumn-spawning species occurred earlier with warmer temperatures, implying that with increasing temperatures, migrating autumn-spawning species will increase residence time in tributaries. We also found that spring-spawning fishes reproduced earlier in more recent years, while we observed no significant effect in autumn-spawners. Spring- and autumn-spawning fishes displayed interannual variation in spawning dates (mean range of 34.4 and 27.0 days over 33.9 years, respectively), with spring-spawning fishes displaying a significantly broader range in spawning dates.

SNP Polymorphisms Are Associated with Environmental Factors in Sockeye Salmon Populations Across the Northwest Pacific: Insights from Redundancy Analysis

The SNP variation in sockeye salmon across the Asian part of its range was studied in 23 samples from 16 lake-river systems of the West Pacific Coast to improve understanding of genetic adaptation in response to spawning watersheds conditions. Identification of candidate SNPs and environmental factors that can contribute to local adaptations in sockeye salmon populations was carried out using redundancy analysis (RDA), a powerful tool for landscape genetics proven to be effective in genotype-environment association studies. Climatic and hydrographic indices (7 indices in total), reflecting abiotic conditions in freshwater habitats of sockeye salmon and characterizing the temperature regime in the river basin, its variability during the year, the amount of precipitation, as well as the height of the maximum tide in the estuary, were used as predictor factors. Among the 45 analyzed SNPs, several loci (ALDOB-135, HGFA, and RAG3-93) correlated with predictors gradients along the northwest Pacific coast were identified. The putative candidate loci localized in genes involved in the immune and inflammatory responses, as well as genes encoding temperature-sensitive enzymes and some hormones regulating ion homeostasis in fish during the anadromous migration and smoltification, were potentially associated with environmental conditions in natal rivers. The findings could have implications for aquaculture, conservation, and resource management in the context of global climate change.

Closing the gap between science and management of cold-water refuges in rivers and streams

Human activities and climate change threaten coldwater organisms in freshwater ecosystems by causing rivers and streams to warm, increasing the intensity and frequency of warm temperature events, and reducing thermal heterogeneity. Cold-water refuges are discrete patches of relatively cool water that are used by coldwater organisms for thermal relief and short-term survival. Globally, cohesive management approaches are needed that consider interlinked physical, biological, and social factors of cold-water refuges. We review current understanding of cold-water refuges, identify gaps between science and management, and evaluate policies aimed at protecting thermally sensitive species. Existing policies include designating cold-water habitats, restricting fishing during warm periods, and implementing threshold temperature standards or guidelines. However, these policies are rare and uncoordinated across spatial scales and often do not consider input from Indigenous peoples. We propose that cold-water refuges be managed as distinct operational landscape units, which provide a social and ecological context that is relevant at the watershed scale. These operational landscape units provide the foundation for an integrated framework that links science and management by (1) mapping and characterizing cold-water refuges to prioritize management and conservation actions, (2) leveraging existing and new policies, (3) improving coordination across jurisdictions, and (4) implementing adaptive management practices across scales. Our findings show that while there are many opportunities for scientific advancement, the current state of the sciences is sufficient to inform policy and management. Our proposed framework provides a path forward for managing and protecting cold-water refuges using existing and new policies to protect coldwater organisms in the face of global change.

Intraspecific variation among Chinook Salmon populations indicates physiological adaptation to local environmental conditions

Understanding interpopulation variation is important to predicting species responses to climate change. Recent research has revealed interpopulation variation among several species of Pacific salmonids; however, the environmental drivers of population differences remain elusive. We tested for local adaptation and countergradient variation by assessing interpopulation variation among six populations of fall-run Chinook Salmon from the western United States. Juvenile fish were reared at three temperatures (11, 16 and 20°C), and five physiological metrics were measured (routine and maximum metabolic rate, aerobic scope, growth rate and critical thermal maximum). We then tested associations between these physiological metrics and 15 environmental characteristics (e.g. rearing temperature, latitude, migration distance, etc.). Statistical associations between the five physiological metrics and 15 environmental characteristics supported our hypotheses of local adaptation. Notably, latitude was a poor predictor of population physiology. Instead, our results demonstrate that populations from warmer habitats exhibit higher thermal tolerance (i.e. critical thermal maxima), faster growth when warm acclimated and greater aerobic capacity at high temperatures. Additionally, populations with longer migrations exhibit higher metabolic capacity. However, overall metabolic capacity declined with warm acclimation, indicating that future climate change may reduce metabolic capacity, negatively affecting long-migrating populations. Linking physiological traits to environmental characteristics enables flexible, population-specific management of disparate populations in response to local conditions.

How riparian and floodplain restoration modify the effects of increasing temperature on adult salmon spawner abundance in the Chehalis River, WA

Stream temperatures in the Pacific Northwest are projected to increase with climate change, placing additional stress on cold-water salmonids. We modeled the potential impact of increased stream temperatures on four anadromous salmonid populations in the Chehalis River Basin (spring-run and fall-run Chinook salmon Oncorhynchus tshawytscha, coho salmon O. kisutch, and steelhead O. mykiss), as well as the potential for floodplain reconnection and stream shade restoration to offset the effects of future temperature increases. In the Chehalis River Basin, peak summer stream temperatures are predicted to increase by as much as 3°C by late-century, but restoration actions can locally decrease temperatures by as much as 6°C. On average, however, basin-wide average stream temperatures are expected to increase because most reaches have low temperature reduction potential for either restoration action relative to climate change. Results from the life cycle models indicated that, without restoration actions, increased summer temperatures are likely to produce significant declines in spawner abundance by late-century for coho (-29%), steelhead (-34%), and spring-run Chinook salmon (-95%), and smaller decreases for fall-run Chinook salmon (-17%). Restoration actions reduced these declines in all cases, although model results suggest that temperature restoration alone may not fully mitigate effects of future temperature increases. Notably, floodplain reconnection provided a greater benefit than riparian restoration for steelhead and both Chinook salmon populations, but riparian restoration provided a greater benefit for coho. This pattern emerged because coho salmon tend to spawn and rear in smaller streams where shade restoration has a larger effect on stream temperature, whereas Chinook and steelhead tend to occupy larger rivers where temperatures are more influenced by floodplain connectivity. Spring-run Chinook salmon are the only population for which peak temperatures affect adult prespawn survival in addition to rearing survival, making them the most sensitive species to increasing stream temperatures.

Intraspecific variability in thermal tolerance: a case study with coastal cutthroat trout

Fish physiological performance is directly regulated by their thermal environment. Intraspecific comparisons are essential to ascertain the vulnerability of fish populations to climate change and to identify which populations may be more susceptible to extirpation and which may be more resilient to continued warming. In this study, we sought to evaluate how thermal performance varies in coastal cutthroat trout (Oncorhynchus clarki clarki) across four distinct watersheds in OR, USA. Specifically, we measured oxygen consumption rates in trout from the four watersheds with variable hydrologic and thermal regimes, comparing three ecologically relevant temperature treatments (ambient, annual maximum and novel warm). Coastal cutthroat trout displayed considerable intraspecific variability in physiological performance and thermal tolerance across the four watersheds. Thermal tolerance matched the historical experience: the coastal watersheds experiencing warmer ambient temperatures had higher critical thermal tolerance compared with the interior, cooler Willamette watersheds. Physiological performance varied across all four watersheds and there was evidence of a trade-off between high aerobic performance and broad thermal tolerance. Given the evidence of climate regime shifts across the globe, the uncertainty in both the rate and extent of warming and species responses in the near and long term, a more nuanced approach to the management and conservation of native fish species must be considered.

Quantification of thermal impacts across freshwater life stages to improve temperature management for anadromous salmonids

Water temperature is the major controlling factor that shapes the physiology, behaviour and, ultimately, survival of aquatic ectotherms. Here we examine temperature effects on the survival of Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha), a species of high economic and conservation importance. We implement a framework to assess how incremental changes in temperature impact survival across populations that is based on thermal performance models for three freshwater life stages of Chinook salmon. These temperature-dependent models were combined with local spatial distribution and phenology data to translate spatial-temporal stream temperature data into maps of life stage-specific physiological performance in space and time. Specifically, we converted temperature-dependent performance (i.e. energy used by pre-spawned adults, mortality of incubating embryos and juvenile growth rate) into a common currency that measures survival in order to compare thermal effects across life stages. Based on temperature data from two abnormally warm and dry years for three managed rivers in the Central Valley, California, temperature-dependent mortality during pre-spawning holding was higher than embryonic mortality or juvenile mortality prior to smolting. However, we found that local phenology and spatial distribution helped to mitigate negative thermal impacts. In a theoretical application, we showed that high temperatures may inhibit successful reintroduction of threatened Central Valley spring-run Chinook salmon to two rivers where they have been extirpated. To increase Chinook salmon population sizes, especially for the threatened and declining spring-run, our results indicate that adults may need more cold-water holding habitat than currently available in order to reduce pre-spawning mortality stemming from high temperatures. To conclude, our framework is an effective way to calculate thermal impacts on multiple salmonid populations and life stages within a river over time, providing local managers the information to minimize negative thermal impacts on salmonid populations, particularly important during years when cold-water resources are scarce.

One hundred-seventy years of stressors erode salmon fishery climate resilience in California's warming landscape

People seek reliable natural resources despite climate change. Diverse habitats and biologies stabilize productivity against disturbances like climate, prompting arguments to promote climate-resilient resources by prioritizing complex, less-modified ecosystems. These arguments hinge on the hypothesis that simplifying and degrading ecosystems will reduce resources' climate resilience, a process liable to be cryptically evolving across landscapes and human generations, but rarely documented. Here, we examined the industrial era (post 1848) of California's Central Valley, chronicling the decline of a diversified, functional portfolio of salmon habitats and life histories and investigating for empirical evidence of lost climate resilience in its fishery. Present perspectives indicate that California's dynamic, warming climate overlaid onto its truncated, degraded habitat mosaic severely constrains its salmon fishery. We indeed found substantial climate constraints on today's fishery, but this reflected a shifted ecological baseline. During the early stages of a stressor legacy that transformed the landscape and -- often consequently -- compressed salmon life history expression, the fishery diffused impacts of dry years across a greater number of fishing years and depended less on cool spring-summer transitions. The latter are important given today's salmon habitats, salmon life histories, and resource management practices, but are vanishing with climate change while year-to-year variation in fishery performance is rising. These findings give empirical weight to the idea that human legacies influence ecosystems' climate resilience across landscapes and boundaries (e.g., land/sea). They also raise the question of whether some contemporary climate effects are recent and attributable not only to increasing climate stress, but to past and present human actions that erode resilience. In general, it is thus worth considering that management approaches that prioritize complex, less-modified ecosystems may stabilize productivity despite increasing climate stress and such protective actions may be required for some ecological services to persist into uncertain climate futures.

Does global change increase the risk of maladaptation of Atlantic salmon migration through joint modifications of river temperature and discharge?

In freshwater ecosystems, water temperature and discharge are two intrinsically associated triggers of key events in the life cycle of aquatic organisms such as the migration of diadromous fishes. However, global changes have already profoundly altered the thermal and hydrological regimes of rivers, affecting the timing of fish migration as well as the environmental conditions under which it occurs. In this study, we focused on Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar), an iconic diadromous species whose individuals migrate between marine nursery areas and continental spawning grounds. An innovative multivariate method was developed to analyse long-term datasets of daily water temperature, discharge and both salmon juvenile downstream and adult upstream migrations in three French rivers (the Bresle, Oir and Nivelle rivers). While all three rivers have gradually warmed over the last 35 years, changes in discharge have been very heterogeneous. Juveniles more frequently used warmer temperatures to migrate. Adults migrating a few weeks before spawning more frequently used warm temperatures associated with high discharges. This has already led to modifications in preferential niches of both life stages and suggests a potential mismatch between these populations' ecological preference and changes in their local environment due to global change.