Level of agreement between frequently used cardiovascular risk calculators in people living with HIV

Changes in atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease risk over time among people living with HIV

OBJECTIVE

To describe changes in atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) risk over time among people living with HIV (PLHIV).

METHODS

We used data from the TREAT Asia HIV Observational Database (TAHOD) and the Australian HIV Observational Database (AHOD). Five-year ASCVD risk was calculated using the D:A:D equation. Individuals were eligible for inclusion if they were aged ≥18 years, had started ART, had no previous history of ASCVD and had complete ASCVD risk factor data available within the first 5 years of ART initiation.

RESULTS

A total of 3368 adults contributed data, 3221 were from TAHOD and 147 were from AHOD. The median age at ART initiation was 36 [IQR 31-43] years for TAHOD participants, and 42 [IQR 35-50] years for AHOD participants. Most TAHOD (70.4%) and AHOD (91.8%) participants were male. Overall, ASCVD risk increased from 0.84% (95% CI 0.81%-0.87%) at ART initiation to 1.34% (95% CI 1.29%-1.39%) after 5 years on ART. After adjusting for traditional and HIV-associated ASCVD risk factors, ASCVD risk increased at a similar rate among sub-populations defined by HIV exposure (heterosexuals, men who have sex with men, people who inject drugs), race/ethnicity (Caucasian and Asian) and nadir CD4 at ART initiation (<200 and ≥200 cells/mm3).

CONCLUSIONS

These findings emphasize the growing burden of ASCVD risk among PLHIV and the need to develop interventions that are effective across a broad range of HIV sub-populations.

Association between inflammatory biomarker profiles and cardiovascular risk in individuals with and without HIV

BACKGROUND

People with HIV have an increased risk for cardiovascular morbidity and mortality. Inflammation and immune activation may contribute to this excess risk.

METHODS

We assessed thirty-one biomarkers in a subset of POPPY participants and identified three distinct inflammatory profiles: 'gut/immune activation', 'neurovascular', and 'reference' (relatively low levels of inflammation). Ten-year cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk predictions were calculated using the QRISK, Framingham Risk Score (FRS) and the Data Collection on Adverse effects of anti-HIV Drugs (D:A:D) algorithms. The distributions of CVD risk scores across the different inflammatory profiles, stratified by HIV status, were compared using median quantile regression.

RESULTS

Of the 312 participants included [70% living with HIV, median (interquartile range; IQR) age 55 (51-60) years; 82% male; 91% white], 36, 130, and 146 were in the 'gut/immune activation', 'neurovascular', and 'reference' cluster, respectively. The median (IQR) QRISK scores were 9.3% (4.5-14.5) and 10.2% (5.5-16.9) for people with and without HV, respectively, with similar scores obtained with the FRS and D:A:D. We observed statistically significant differences between the distributions of scores in the three clusters among people with HV. In particular, median QRISK [5.8% (1.0-10.7) and 3.1% (0.3-5.8)] scores were higher, respectively, for those in the 'gut/immune activation' and 'neurovascular' clusters compared to those in the reference cluster.

CONCLUSIONS

People with HIV with increased gut/immune activation have a higher CVD risk compared to those with relatively low inflammation. Our findings highlight that clinically important inflammatory subgroups could be useful to differentiate risk and maximise prediction of CVD among people with HIV.

High Concordance between D:A:Dr and the Framingham Risk Score in Brazilians Living with HIV

People living with HIV (PLHIV) have twice the risk of developing cardiovascular diseases, making it essential to identify high cardiovascular risk (CVR). However, there is no validated CVR calculator for PLHIV in Brazil. We performed a cross-sectional study with 265 individuals living with HIV, aged 40 to 74 years, to assess the agreement between three CVR scores: Framingham Risk Score (FRS), Atherosclerotic Cardiovascular Disease (ASCVD) Risk Score, and a specific for PLHIV, Reduced Data Collection on Adverse Effects of Anti-HIV Drugs (D:A:Dr). We assessed agreement using the weighted Kappa coefficient and the Bland-Altman plot. The median age was 52 years (47-58), 58.9% were men, 34% were hypertensive and 8.3% had a detectable viral load. There was an almost perfect agreement between D:A:Dr x FRS (k = 0.82; 95% CI 0.77-0.87; p < 0.001), and substantial agreement between FRS vs. ASCVD (k = 0.74; 95% CI 0.69-0.79; p < 0.001) and between D:A:Dr vs. ASCVD (k = 0.70; 95% CI 0.64-0.76; p < 0.001). The Bland-Altman plot revealed greater discordance between scores as the CVR increased. Our results suggest that the FRS and the D:A:Dr are adequate to classify the CVR in this population, and the D:A:Dr score can be used as an alternative to the FRS in Brazil, as other international guidelines have already advocated.

Cardiovascular risk prediction equations underestimate risk in people living with HIV: Comparison and cut-point redefinition for 19 cardiovascular risk equations

BACKGROUND

Rates of cardiovascular disease are higher in people living with HIV. Early detection of high-risk subjects (applying cardiovascular risk equations) would allow preventive actions. D:A:D, ASCVD and FRS:CVD equations are the most recommended. However, controversies surround these equations and cut-points, which have the greatest capacity to discriminate high-risk subjects.

OBJECTIVES

The study aims (i) to assess the association/agreement between cardiovascular risk levels obtained with D:A:D and fifteen other cardiovascular risk equations, (ii) to detect cardiovascular risk equations capability to detect high-risk subjects, and (iii) to specify the optimal cardiovascular risk equation´s cut points for the prediction of carotid plaque presence, as a surrogate of high cardiovascular risk.

METHODS

86 adults with HIV were submitted to the clinical, laboratory and cardiovascular risk evaluation (including carotid ultrasound measurements). Cardiovascular risk was evaluated through multiple risk equations (e.g., D.A.D, ASCVD and FRS equations). Association and agreement between equations (Correlation, Bland-Altman, Williams´test) and equations capacity to detect plaque presence (ROC curves, sensitivity, specificity) were evaluated.

RESULTS

Cardiovascular risk equations showed a significant and positive correlation with plaque presence. Higher high-cardiovascular risk detection capability was obtained for ASCVD and D:A:D. Full D:A:D5y>0.88%, ASCVD>2.80% and FRS:CVD>2.77% correspond to a 80% sensitivity.

CONCLUSION

All cardiovascular risk equations underestimate the true risk in HIV subjects. The cut-points for high cardiovascular risk were found to vary greatly from recommended in clinical guidelines.

Comparison of Three Cardiovascular Risk Scores among HIV-Infected Patients in Korea: The Korea HIV/AIDS Cohort Study

Background

We investigated cardiovascular disease (CVD), risk factors for CVD, and applicability of the three known CVD risk equations in the Korean human immunodeficiency virus/ Acquired Immune Deficiency Syndrome (HIV/AIDS) cohort.

Materials and Methods

The study parcitipants were HIV-infected patients in a Korean HIV/AIDS cohort enrolled from 19 hospitals between 2006 and 2017. Data collected at entry to the cohort were analyzed. The 5-year CVD risk in each participant was calculated using three CVD risk equations: reduced CVD prediction model of HIV-specific data collection on adverse effects of anti-HIV drugs (R-DAD), Framingham general CVD risk score (FRS), and Korean Coronary Heart Disease Risk Score (KRS).

Results

CVD events were observed in 11 of 586 HIV-infected patients during a 5-year (median) follow-up period. The incidence of CVD was 4.11 per 1,000 person-years. Older age (64 vs. 41 years, P = 0.005) and diabetes mellitus (45.5% vs. 6.4%, P <0.001) were more frequent in patients with CVD. Using R-DAD, FRS, and KRS, 1.9%, 2.4%, and 0.7% of patients, respectively, were considered to have a very high risk (≥10%) of 5-year CVD. The discriminatory capacities of the three prediction models were good, with c-statistic values of 0.829 (P <0.001) for R-DAD, 0.824 (P <0.001) for FRS, and 0.850 (P = 0.001) for KRS.

Conclusion

The FRS, R-DAD, and KRS performed well in the Korean HIV/AIDS cohort. A larger cohort and a longer period of follow-up may be necessary to demonstrate the risk factors and develop an independent CVD risk prediction model specific to Korean patients with HIV.

Coronary Artery Calcification and Plaque Characteristics in People Living With HIV: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

Background

Studies have reported that people living with HIV have higher burden of subclinical cardiovascular disease, but the data are not adequately synthesized. We performed meta‐analyses of studies of coronary artery calcium and coronary plaque in people living with HIV.

Methods and Results

We performed systematic search in electronic databases, and data were abstracted in standardized forms. Study‐specific estimates were pooled using meta‐analysis. 43 reports representing 27 unique studies and involving 10 867 participants (6699 HIV positive, 4168 HIV negative, mean age 52 years, 86% men, 32% Black) were included. The HIV‐positive participants were younger (mean age 49 versus 57 years) and had lower Framingham Risk Score (mean score 6 versus 18) compared with the HIV‐negative participants. The pooled estimate of percentage with coronary artery calcium >0 was 45% (95% CI, 43%–47%) for HIV‐positive participants, and 52% (50%–53%) for HIV‐negative participants. This difference was no longer significant after adjusting for difference in Framingham Risk Score between the 2 groups. The odds ratio of coronary artery calcium progression for HIV‐positive versus ‐negative participants was 1.64 (95% CI, 0.91–2.37). The pooled estimate for prevalence of noncalcified plaque was 49% (95% CI, 47%–52%) versus 20% (95% CI, 17%–23%) for HIV‐positive versus HIV‐negative participants, respectively. Odds ratio for noncalcified plaque for HIV‐positive versus ‐negative participants was 1.23 (95% CI, 1.08–1.38). There was significant heterogeneity that was only partially explained by available study‐level characteristics.

Conclusions

People living with HIV have higher prevalence of noncalcified coronary plaques and similar prevalence of coronary artery calcium, compared with HIV‐negative individuals. Future studies on coronary artery calcium and plaque progression can further elucidate subclinical atherosclerosis in people living with HIV.

Cardiovascular Risk Assessment in People Living With HIV: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis of Real-Life Data

BACKGROUND

People living with HIV (PLWHIV) have a 2-fold higher risk of having a cardiovascular event than HIV-negative individuals.

OBJECTIVE

The objective of this article is to estimate the pooled proportion of moderate-high cardiovascular risk in PLWHIV obtained through different scores. In addition, this study also aims to establish the prevalence of dyslipidemia, smoking habits, diabetes and high blood pressure in the included studies.

METHODS

A bibliographic search was conducted in MEDLINE for studies on cardiovascular risk assessment in PLWHVI that took place during the period of inception to July 2018. The eligibility criteria for inclusion were: cross-sectional or longitudinal studies on HIV-positive adults in which the prevalence of moderate-high cardiovascular risk (or data to calculate it) was reported, and included at least one of the following cardiovascular risk scores: Framingham, ASCVD, D:A:D, Progetto Cuore, PROCAM, SCORE, Regicor, and World Health Organization scores.

RESULTS

Bibliographic search identified 278 studies. Finally, thirty-nine peer-reviewed publications were identified for a collective total of 13698 subjects. The pooled prevalence of moderate-high cardiovascular risk in PLWHIV obtained with nine different scores through random-effect modeling was 20.41% (95% CI: 16.77-24.31). The most prevalent concomitant cardiovascular risk factor was dyslipidemia (39.5%), smoking (33.0 %), high blood pressure (19.8%) and diabetes (7.24%).

CONCLUSION

Data obtained in this systematic review indicate that more than 1 in every five subjects with HIV have a moderate-high cardiovascular risk. In consequence, the burden of cardiovascular disease in PLWHIV represents a public health problem. There is an urgent need to develop strategies to prevent and detect cardiovascular risk effectively in PLWHIV.

Prediction of future cardiovascular events by Framingham, SCORE and asCVD risk scores is less accurate in HIV-positive individuals from the HIV-HEART Study compared with the general population

OBJECTIVES

Cardiovascular diseases (CVDs) occur more often in people living with HIV (PLWH) than in the general population. It has been reported that CVD risk scores developed for the general population underestimate the CVD risk in PLWH. Performances of the Framingham Risk Score (FRS), the Systematic Coronary Risk Evaluation (SCORE) and the atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (asCVD) risk score in PLWH were compared with the general population to quantify score-specific differences in risk prediction.

METHODS

HIV-positive outpatients from the HIV-HEART (HIVH) study (n = 567) were compared with participants from the population-based Heinz Nixdorf Recall (HNR) study (n ~ 4440) both recruited from the German Ruhr area. During a follow-up time of around 5 years, the associations between the FRS and incident CVD and peripheral artery disease (CVD_pAD), SCORE and coronary heart disease (CHD), and asCVD and incident CVD were examined using logistic regression. Score performances were assessed by comparing the areas under the curve (AUCs).

RESULTS

The mean ages were 52.9 ± 6.7 and 59.1 ± 7.7 years in the HIVH and HNR studies, respectively. There were fewer incident CVD events in the HNR study than in the HIVH study (CVD_pAD: 3.9% vs. 12.1%; CHD: 2.1% vs. 7.8%; CVD: 3.5% vs. 9.9%). Age- and sex-adjusted CVD risk was greater with increasing FRS, SCORE and asCVD in both cohorts, but the scores performed more accurately in the HNR than in HIVH study (AUCs FRS: 0.71 vs. 0.65; SCORE: 0.70 vs. 0.62; asCVD: 0.74 vs. 0.62).

CONCLUSIONS

Associations between risk scores and future CVD were observed in both cohorts, but the score performances were less reliable in PLWH than in the general population.

Carotid atherosclerosis in virologically suppressed HIV patients: comparison with a healthy sample and prediction by cardiovascular risk equations

OBJECTIVES

To compare the prevalence of carotid atherosclerosis in virologically suppressed HIV patients with that of a community sample, and to evaluate the capacity of various cardiovascular risk (CVR) equations for predicting carotid atherosclerosis.

METHODS

This was a cross-sectional study with two randomly selected groups: HIV patients from an HIV unit and a control group drawn from the community. Participants were matched by age (30-80 years) and sex without history of cardiovascular disease. Carotid plaque, common carotid intima-media thickness (cc-IMT) and subclinical atherosclerosis (carotid plaque and/or cc-IMT > 75^th percentile) were assessed by carotid ultrasound. The Systematic Coronary Risk Evaluation (SCORE), Framingham, REGICOR, reduced Data Collection on Adverse Effects of Anti-HIV Drugs (D:A:D), and COMVIH equations were applied, and their abilities to predict carotid plaque were compared using the area under the curve (AUC).

RESULTS

Each group included 379 subjects (77.8% men, age 49.7 years). Duration of antiretroviral therapy was 15.5 years. There were no differences between the groups for carotid plaque (HIV, 33.2%; control, 31.3%), mean cc-IMT (HIV, 0.63 mm; control, 0.61 mm) or subclinical atherosclerosis (HIV, 42.9%; control, 47.9%). Thymidine analogues were independently associated with subclinical atherosclerosis in HIV-infected patients. CVR equations revealed AUCs between 0.715 and 0.807 for prediction of carotid plaque; prediction was better in the control group and did not improve when HIV-adapted scales were used.

CONCLUSIONS

The features of carotid atherosclerosis did not differ between the HIV-infected and the control group, although CVR equations were more predictive for carotid plaque in controls than in HIV-infected patients. HIV-specific equations did not improve prediction.

Use of Coronary Artery Calcium Scoring to Improve Cardiovascular Risk Stratification and Guide Decisions to Start Statin Therapy in People Living With HIV

BACKGROUND

Cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk assessment remains a critical step in guiding decisions to initiate primary prevention interventions in people living with HIV (PLWH).

SETTING

We investigated whether coronary artery calcium (CAC) scoring allowed a more accurate selection of patients who may benefit from statin therapy, compared with current risk assessment tools alone.

METHODS

Cross-sectional analysis of PLWH over 50 years old who underwent CAC scoring between 2009 and 2019. Framingham Risk score (FRS), QRISK2 and D:A:D scores were calculated for each participant at the time of CAC scoring and statin eligibility determined based on current European guidelines on the prevention of CVD in PLWH.

RESULTS

A total of 739 patients were included (mean age 56 ± 5, 92.8% male, 84% white). Among 417 (56.4%) candidates for statin therapy based on FRS ≥10%, 174 (23.5%) had no detectable calcification (CAC = 0). Conversely, 145 (19.6%) patients with detectable calcification (CAC > 0) were identified as low-risk (FRS < 10%). When compared with FRS, CAC scoring reclassified CVD risk in 43.1% of patients, 145 (19.6%) to a higher risk group that could benefit from statin therapy and 174 (23.5%) statin candidates to a lower risk group. QRISK2 and D:A:D scores performed similarly to FRS, underestimating the presence of significant coronary calcification in 21.1% and 24.9% respectively and overestimating risk in 16.9% and 18.8% patients with CAC = 0.

CONCLUSIONS

Establishing a decision-model based on the combination of conventional risk tools and CAC scoring improves risk assessment and the selection of PLWH who would benefit from statin therapy.

[Cardiovascular risk calculators for people living with human immunodeficiency virus]

The increasing access and efficacy of antiretroviral therapy has allowed people living with human immunodeficiency virus to achieve a life expectancy similar to that of the general population. However, this goal may be affected by the increased risk of cardiovascular disease in this group. This risk is multifactorial, involving the high prevalence of traditional risk factors, the development of a pro-inflammatory state related to chronic infection, and the use of antiretroviral drugs with an adverse metabolic profile. In daily practice, in order to estimate this risk and guide medical decision-making, different calculators are available. These are based on data from population cohorts, many of them from human immunodeficiency virusnegative subjects. The main aim of this review is to describe the epidemiology of cardiovascular disease in people living with human immunodeficiency virus, the available risk calculators and their use.

Cardiovascular disease in HIV patients: recent advances in predicting and managing risk

INTRODUCTION

Cardiovascular disease (CVD) is one of the leading causes of mortality in virally suppressed people living with HIV (PLWH) and with an aging population, is likely to become one of the leading challenges in maintaining good health outcomes in HIV infection. However, factors driving the risk of CVD in PLWH are multiple and may be different from those of the general population, raising challenges to predicting and managing CVD risk in this population.

AREAS COVERED

In this review, we examine the relevant data regarding CVD in HIV infection including CVD prevalence, pathogenesis, and other contributing factors. We review the data regarding CVD risk prediction in PLWH and summarize factors, both general and HIV specific, that may influence CVD risk in this population. And finally, we discuss appropriate management of CVD risk in PLWH and explore potential therapeutic pathways which may mitigate CVD risk in the future in this population.

EXPERT OPINION

Following a comprehensive review of CVD risk in PLWH, we give our opinion on the primary issues in risk prediction and management of CVD in HIV infected individuals and discuss the future direction of CVD management in this population.

Good Fences Make Good Neighbors: Human Immunodeficiency Virus and Vascular Disease

Cardiovascular disease, venous thrombosis, and microvascular disease in people with HIV (PWH) is predicted to increase in an aging HIV-infected population. Endothelial damage and dysfunction is a risk factor for cardiovascular events in PWH and is characterized by impaired vascular relaxation and decreased nitric oxide availability. Vascular disease has been attributed to direct viral effects, opportunistic infections, chronic inflammation, effects of antiretroviral therapy, and underlying comorbid conditions, like hypertension and use of tobacco. Although biomarkers have been examined to predict and prognosticate thrombotic and cardiovascular disease in this population, more comprehensive validation of risk factors is necessary to ensure patients are managed appropriately. This review examines the pathogenesis of vascular disease in PWH and summarizes the biomarkers used to predict vascular disease in this population.