Climate change and its impact on the forests of Kilimanjaro

Climate and Environmental Variables Drive Stream Biofilm Bacterial and Fungal Diversity on Tropical Mountainsides

High mountain freshwater systems are particularly sensitive to the impacts of global warming and relevant environmental changes. Microorganisms contribute substantially to biogeochemical processes, yet their distribution patterns and driving mechanism in alpine streams remain understudied. Here, we examined the bacterial and fungal community compositions in stream biofilm along the elevational gradient of 745-1874 m on Mt. Kilimanjaro and explored their alpha and beta diversity patterns and the underlying environmental drivers. We found that the species richness and evenness monotonically increased towards higher elevations for bacteria, while were non-significant for fungi. However, both bacterial and fungal communities showed consistent elevational distance-decay relationships, i.e., the dissimilarity of assemblage composition increased with greater elevational differences. Bacterial alpha diversity patterns were mainly affected by chemical variables such as total nitrogen and phosphorus, while fungi were affected by physical variables such as riparian shading and stream width. Notably, climatic variables such as mean annual temperature strongly affected the elevational succession of bacterial and fungal community compositions. Our study is the first exploration of microbial biodiversity and their underlying driving mechanisms for stream ecosystems in tropical alpine regions. Our findings provide insights on the response patterns of tropical aquatic microbial community composition and diversity under climate change.

Impacts of anthropogenic climate change on tropical montane forests: an appraisal of the evidence

In spite of their small global area and restricted distributions, tropical montane forests (TMFs) are biodiversity hotspots and important ecosystem services providers, but are also highly vulnerable to climate change. To protect and preserve these ecosystems better, it is crucial to inform the design and implementation of conservation policies with the best available scientific evidence, and to identify knowledge gaps and future research needs. We conducted a systematic review and an appraisal of evidence quality to assess the impacts of climate change on TMFs. We identified several skews and shortcomings. Experimental study designs with controls and long-term (≥10 years) data sets provide the most reliable evidence, but were rare and gave an incomplete understanding of climate change impacts on TMFs. Most studies were based on predictive modelling approaches, short-term (<10 years) and cross-sectional study designs. Although these methods provide moderate to circumstantial evidence, they can advance our understanding on climate change effects. Current evidence suggests that increasing temperatures and rising cloud levels have caused distributional shifts (mainly upslope) of montane biota, leading to alterations in biodiversity and ecological functions. Neotropical TMFs were the best studied, thus the knowledge derived there can serve as a proxy for climate change responses in under-studied regions elsewhere. Most studies focused on vascular plants, birds, amphibians and insects, with other taxonomic groups poorly represented. Most ecological studies were conducted at species or community levels, with a marked paucity of genetic studies, limiting understanding of the adaptive capacity of TMF biota. We thus highlight the long-term need to widen the methodological, thematic and geographical scope of studies on TMFs under climate change to address these uncertainties. In the short term, however, in-depth research in well-studied regions and advances in computer modelling approaches offer the most reliable sources of information for expeditious conservation action for these threatened forests.

The Long-Term Consequences of Forest Fires on the Carbon Fluxes of a Tropical Forest in Africa

Tropical forests are an important component of the global carbon cycle, as they store large amounts of carbon. In some tropical regions, the forests are increasingly influenced by disturbances such as fires, which lead to structural changes but also alter species composition, forest succession, and carbon balance. However, the long-term consequences on forest functioning are difficult to assess. The majority of all global forest fires are found in Africa. In this study, a forest model was extended by a fire model to investigate the long-term effects of forest fires on biomass, carbon fluxes, and species composition of tropical forests at Mt. Kilimanjaro (Tanzania). According to this modeling study, forest biomass was reduced by 46% by fires and even by 80% when fires reoccur. Forest regeneration lasted more than 100 years to recover to pre-fire state. Productivity and respiration were up to 4 times higher after the fire than before the fire, which was mainly due to pioneer species in the regeneration phase. Considering the full carbon balance of the regrowing forest, it takes more than 150 years to compensate for the carbon emissions caused by the forest fire. However, functional diversity increases after a fire, as fire-tolerant tree species and pioneer species dominate a fire-affected forest area and thus alter the forest succession. This study shows that forest models can be suitable tools to simulate the dynamics of tropical forests and to assess the long-term consequences of fires.

Vegetation trends over eleven years on mountain summits in NW Argentina

As global climate change leads to warmer and dryer conditions in the central Andes, alpine plant communities are forced to upward displacements following their climatic niche. Species range shifts are predicted to have major impacts on alpine communities by reshuffling species composition and abundances. Using a standardized protocol, we surveyed alpine plant communities in permanent plots on four high Andean summits in NW Argentina, which range from 4,040 to 4,740 m a.s.l. After a baseline survey in 2006-2008, we resurvey the same plots in 2012, and again in 2017. We found a significant decrease in plant cover, species richness, and diversity across the elevation gradient in the three censuses and a strong decrease in soil temperature along the elevation gradient. We found a high plant community turnover (37%-49%) among censuses, differentiating according to summits and aspects; major changes of community turnover were observed in the lowest summit (49%) and on the northern (47%) and western (46%) aspects. Temporal patterns in community changes were represented by increases in plant cover in the highest summit, in species richness in the lower summit, and in diversity (Shannon index) in the four summits, over time, together with increase in small herbs and non-tussock grasses. We suggest that the observed trend in plant community dynamics responds to short-term temperature and precipitation variability, which is influenced by El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), and due to time lags in plant community response, it may take much longer than one decade for the observed trends to become stables and statistically significant. Our study provides an important foundation for documenting more profound changes in these subtropical alpine plant communities as global climate change continues.

Influence of moisture source dynamics and weather patterns on stable isotopes ratios of precipitation in Central-Eastern Africa

We report the first δ¹⁸O and δ²H data of Virunga rainfall in the Eastern Democratic Republic of the Congo, situated on the limit between Central and Eastern Africa. The dataset is from 13 rain gauges deployed at Mount Nyiragongo and its surroundings sampled monthly between December 2013 and October 2015. The δ¹⁸O and δ²H vary from -6.44 to 6.16‰, and -32.53 to 58.89‰ respectively, and allowed us to define a LMWL of δ²H = 7.60δ¹⁸O + 16.18. Three main wind directions, i.e. NE, E and SE, were identified in the upper atmosphere corresponding to three major moisture source regions. On the contrary, lower atmospheric winds are weaker in nature and originate mainly from the S and SW, creating a topographically-driven, more local moisture regime. The latter is due to the accumulation in the floor of the rift of water vapor from Lake Kivu forming a layer of isotopically enriched vapor that mediates the isotope enrichment of the falling raindrops. A strong seasonality is observed in both δ¹⁸O and δ²H data, and is primarily driven by combined seasonal and spatial variation in the moisture sources. The δ¹⁸O and δ²H seasonality is thus correlated to weather patterns, as the latter control the wet to dry season shifting, and vice versa. The key characteristic of seasonality is the variation of monthly precipitation amounts, since the mean monthly air temperature is nearly constant on an annual scale. Two regionally relevant hydrological processes contribute to the isotopic signature: namely moisture uptake from the isotopically enriched surface waters of East African lakes and from the depleted soil-water and plants. Consequently, the proportion of water vapor from each of these reservoirs in the atmosphere drives the enrichment or depletion of δ²H and δ¹⁸O in the precipitation. Thus, during wet periods the vapor from soil-plants evapotranspiration dominates yielding isotopically depleted precipitation, contrary to dry periods when vapor from lakes surface evaporation dominates, yielding isotopically enriched precipitation. At the global scale, our dataset reduces gaps in this region that has been poorly studied for δ¹⁸O and δ²H in precipitation. At the regional scale, the improved understanding of the ways land cover, moisture source seasonal and spatial dynamics, and atmospheric patterns impact precipitation spatial and temporal variabilities in Central-East African will contribute to the ongoing research on mitigating the impacts of ongoing climate change in Sub-Saharan Africa. The reduction of gaps and uncertainties in δ²H and δ¹⁸O of precipitation, and the understanding of their interrelation with weather patterns are essential for a better past, present and future environmental and climatic modelling at both local and regional scales.

A glimpse at short-term controls of evapotranspiration along the southern slopes of Kilimanjaro

Future climate characteristics of the southern Kilimanjaro region, Tanzania, are mainly determined by local land-use and global climate change. Reinforcing increasing dryness throughout the twentieth century, ongoing land transformation processes emphasize the need for a proper understanding of the regional-scale water budget and possible implications on related ecosystem functioning and services. Here, we present an analysis of scintillometer-based evapotranspiration (ET) covering seven distinct habitat types across a massive climate gradient from the colline savanna woodlands to the upper-mountain Helichrysum zone (940 to 3960 m.a.s.l.). Random forest-based mean variable importance indicates an outstanding significance of net radiation (R _net) on the observed ET across all elevation levels. Accordingly, topography and frequent cloud/fog events have a dampening effect at high elevations, whereas no such constraints affect the energy and moisture-rich submontane coffee/grassland level. By contrast, long-term moisture availability is likely to impose restrictions upon evapotranspirative net water loss in savanna, which particularly applies to the pronounced dry season. At plot scale, ET can thereby be approximated reasonably using R _net, soil heat flux, and to a lesser degree, vapor pressure deficit and rainfall as predictor variables (R ² 0.59 to 1.00). While multivariate regression based on pooled meteorological data from all plots proves itself useful for predicting hourly ET rates across a broader range of ecosystems (R ² = 0.71), additional gains in explained variance can be achieved when vegetation characteristics as seen from the NDVI are considered (R ² = 0.87). To sum up, our results indicate that valuable insights into land cover-specific ET dynamics, including underlying drivers, may be derived even from explicitly short-term measurements in an ecologically highly diverse landscape.

Relationships between abiotic environment, plant functional traits, and animal body size at Mount Kilimanjaro, Tanzania

The effect-response framework states that plant functional traits link the abiotic environment to ecosystem functioning. One ecosystem property is the body size of the animals living in the system, which is assumed to depend on temperature or resource availability, among others. For primary consumers, resource availability may directly be related to plant traits, while for secondary consumers the relationship is indirect. We used plant traits to describe resource availability along an elevational gradient on Mount Kilimanjaro, Tanzania. Using structural equation models, we determined the response of plant traits to changes in precipitation, temperature and disturbance with and assessed whether abiotic conditions or community-weighted means of plant traits are stronger predictors of the mean size of bees, moths, frugivorous birds, and insectivorous birds. Traits indicating tissue density and nutrient content strongly responded to variations in precipitation, temperature and disturbance. They had direct effects on pollination and fruit traits. However, the average body sizes of the animal groups considered could only be explained by temperature and habitat structure, not by plant traits. Our results demonstrate a strong link between traits and the abiotic environment, but suggest that temperature is the most relevant predictor of mean animal body size. Community-weighted means of plant traits and body sizes appear unsuitable to capture the complexity of plant-animal interactions.

Temperature-dependent phenology of Plutella xylostella (Lepidoptera: Plutellidae): Simulation and visualization of current and future distributions along the Eastern Afromontane

There is a scarcity of laboratory and field-based results showing the movement of the diamondback moth (DBM) Plutella xylostella (L.) across a spatial scale. We studied the population growth of the diamondback moth (DBM) Plutella xylostella (L.) under six constant temperatures, to understand and predict population changes along altitudinal gradients and under climate change scenarios. Non-linear functions were fitted to continuously model DBM development, mortality, longevity and oviposition. We compiled the best-fitted functions for each life stage to yield a phenology model, which we stochastically simulated to estimate the life table parameters. Three temperature-dependent indices (establishment, generation and activity) were derived from a logistic population growth model and then coupled to collected current (2013) and downscaled temperature data from AFRICLIM (2055) for geospatial mapping. To measure and predict the impacts of temperature change on the pest’s biology, we mapped the indices along the altitudinal gradients of Mt. Kilimanjaro (Tanzania) and Taita Hills (Kenya) and assessed the differences between 2013 and 2055 climate scenarios. The optimal temperatures for development of DBM were 32.5, 33.5 and 33°C for eggs, larvae and pupae, respectively. Mortality rates increased due to extreme temperatures to 53.3, 70.0 and 52.4% for egg, larvae and pupae, respectively. The net reproduction rate reached a peak of 87.4 female offspring/female/generation at 20°C. Spatial simulations indicated that survival and establishment of DBM increased with a decrease in temperature, from low to high altitude. However, we observed a higher number of DBM generations at low altitude. The model predicted DBM population growth reduction in the low and medium altitudes by 2055. At higher altitude, it predicted an increase in the level of suitability for establishment with a decrease in the number of generations per year. If climate change occurs as per the selected scenario, DBM infestation may reduce in the selected region. The study highlights the need to validate these predictions with other interacting factors such as cropping practices, host plants and natural enemies.

10 Years of Environmental Change on the Slopes of Mount Kilimanjaro and Its Associated Shift in Malaria Vector Distributions

Introduction

Malaria prevalence has declined in the Kilimanjaro region of Tanzania over the past 10 years, particularly at lower altitudes. While this decline has been related to the scale-up of long-lasting insecticidal nets to achieve universal coverage targets, it has also been attributed to changes in environmental factors that are important for enabling and sustaining malaria transmission.

Objectives

Herein, we apply spatial analytical approaches to investigate the impact of environmental and demographic changes, including changes in temperature, precipitation, land cover, and population density, on the range of the major malaria vector species Anopheles arabiensis in two districts of Tanzania, situated on the southern slope of Mount Kilimanjaro. These models are used to identify environmental changes that have occurred over a 10-year period and highlight the implications for malaria transmission in this highland region.

Methods

Entomological data were collected from the Hai and Lower Moshi districts of Tanzania in 2001–2004 and 2014–2015. Vector occurrence data were applied alongside satellite remote sensing indices of climate and land cover, and gridded population data, to develop species distribution models for An. arabiensis for the 2004 and 2014 periods using maximum entropy. Models were compared to assess the relative contribution of different environmental and demographic factors to observed trends in vector species distribution in lowland and highland areas.

Results

Changes in land cover were observed in addition to increased population densities, increased warm season temperature, and decreased wetness at low altitudes. The predicted area and extent of suitable habitat for An. arabiensis declined across the study area over the 10-year period, with notable contraction at lower altitudes, while species range in higher altitude zones expanded. Importantly, deforestation and warmer temperatures at higher altitudes may have created stable areas of suitable vector habitat in the highlands capable of sustaining malaria transmission.

Conclusion

We show that environmental changes have had an important influence on the distribution of malaria vector species in a highland area of northern Tanzania. Highland areas may be at continued risk for sporadic malaria outbreaks despite the overall range contraction of principal vector species at lower altitudes, where malaria transmission remains at low intensity.

Vertical and Horizontal Vegetation Structure across Natural and Modified Habitat Types at Mount Kilimanjaro

In most habitats, vegetation provides the main structure of the environment. This complexity can facilitate biodiversity and ecosystem services. Therefore, measures of vegetation structure can serve as indicators in ecosystem management. However, many structural measures are laborious and require expert knowledge. Here, we used consistent and convenient measures to assess vegetation structure over an exceptionally broad elevation gradient of 866-4550 m above sea level at Mount Kilimanjaro, Tanzania. Additionally, we compared (human)-modified habitats, including maize fields, traditionally managed home gardens, grasslands, commercial coffee farms and logged and burned forests with natural habitats along this elevation gradient. We distinguished vertical and horizontal vegetation structure to account for habitat complexity and heterogeneity. Vertical vegetation structure (assessed as number, width and density of vegetation layers, maximum canopy height, leaf area index and vegetation cover) displayed a unimodal elevation pattern, peaking at intermediate elevations in montane forests, whereas horizontal structure (assessed as coefficient of variation of number, width and density of vegetation layers, maximum canopy height, leaf area index and vegetation cover) was lowest at intermediate altitudes. Overall, vertical structure was consistently lower in modified than in natural habitat types, whereas horizontal structure was inconsistently different in modified than in natural habitat types, depending on the specific structural measure and habitat type. Our study shows how vertical and horizontal vegetation structure can be assessed efficiently in various habitat types in tropical mountain regions, and we suggest to apply this as a tool for informing future biodiversity and ecosystem service studies.

Do n-alkane biomarkers in soils/sediments reflect the δ²H isotopic composition of precipitation? A case study from Mt. Kilimanjaro and implications for paleoaltimetry and paleoclimate research

During the last decade compound-specific deuterium ((2)H) analysis of plant leaf wax-derived n-alkanes has become a promising and popular tool in paleoclimate research. This is based on the widely accepted assumption that n-alkanes in soils and sediments generally reflect δ(2)H of precipitation (δ(2)H(prec)). Recently, several authors suggested that δ(2)H of n-alkanes (δ(2)H(n-alkanes)) can also be used as a proxy in paleoaltimetry studies. Here, we present results from a δ(2)H transect study (∼1500 to 4000 m above sea level [a.s.l.]) carried out on precipitation and soil samples taken from the humid southern slopes of Mt. Kilimanjaro. Contrary to earlier suggestions, a distinct altitude effect in δ(2)H(prec) is present above ∼2000 m a.s.l., that is, δ(2)H(prec) values become more negative with increasing altitude. The compound-specific δ(2)H values of nC27 and nC29 do not confirm this altitudinal trend, but rather become more positive both in the O-layers (organic layers) and the Ah-horizons (mineral topsoils). Although our δ(2)H(n-alkane) results are in agreement with previously published results from the southern slopes of Mt. Kilimanjaro [Peterse F, van der Meer M, Schouten S, Jia G, Ossebaar J, Blokker J, Sinninghe Damsté J. Assessment of soil n-alkane δD and branched tetraether membrane lipid distributions as tools for paleoelevation reconstruction. Biogeosciences. 2009;6:2799-2807], a re-interpretation is required given that the δ(2)H(n-alkane) results do not reflect the δ(2)H(prec) results. The theoretical framework for this re-interpretation is based on the evaporative isotopic enrichment of leaf water associated with the transpiration process. Modelling results show that relative humidity, decreasing considerably along the southern slopes of Mt. Kilimanjaro (from 78% in ∼2000 m a.s.l. to 51% in 4000 m a.s.l.), strongly controls δ(2)H(leaf water). The modelled (2)H leaf water enrichment along the altitudinal transect matches well the measured (2)H leaf water enrichment as assessed by using the δ(2)H(prec) and δ(2)H(n-alkane) results and biosynthetic fractionation during n-alkane biosynthesis in leaves. Given that our results clearly demonstrate that n-alkanes in soils do not simply reflect δ(2)H(prec) but rather δ(2)H(leaf water), we conclude that care has to be taken not to over-interpret δ(2)H(n-alkane) records from soils and sediments when reconstructing δ(2)H of paleoprecipitation. Both in paleoaltimetry and in paleoclimate studies changes in relative humidity and consequently in δ(2)H(n-alkane) values can completely mask altitudinally or climatically controlled changes in δ(2)H(prec).

Simulating carbon stocks and fluxes of an African tropical montane forest with an individual-based forest model

Tropical forests are carbon-dense and highly productive ecosystems. Consequently, they play an important role in the global carbon cycle. In the present study we used an individual-based forest model (FORMIND) to analyze the carbon balances of a tropical forest. The main processes of this model are tree growth, mortality, regeneration, and competition. Model parameters were calibrated using forest inventory data from a tropical forest at Mt. Kilimanjaro. The simulation results showed that the model successfully reproduces important characteristics of tropical forests (aboveground biomass, stem size distribution and leaf area index). The estimated aboveground biomass (385 t/ha) is comparable to biomass values in the Amazon and other tropical forests in Africa. The simulated forest reveals a gross primary production of 24 tcha(-1) yr(-1). Modeling above- and belowground carbon stocks, we analyzed the carbon balance of the investigated tropical forest. The simulated carbon balance of this old-growth forest is zero on average. This study provides an example of how forest models can be used in combination with forest inventory data to investigate forest structure and local carbon balances.

Human and climate impact on ¹⁵N natural abundance of plants and soils in high-mountain ecosystems: a short review and two examples from the Eastern Pamirs and Mt. Kilimanjaro

Population pressure increasingly endangers high-mountain ecosystems such as the pastures in the Eastern Pamirs and the mountain forests on Mt. Kilimanjaro. At the same time, these ecosystems constitute the economic basis for millions of people living there. In our study, we, therefore, aimed at characterising the land-use effects on soil degradation and N-cycling by determining the natural abundance of (15)N. A short review displays that δ(15)N of plant-soil systems may often serve as an integrated indicator of N-cycles with more positive δ(15)N values pointing towards N-losses. Results for the high-mountain pastures in the Eastern Pamirs show that intensively grazed pastures are significantly enriched in (15)N compared to the less-exploited pastures by 3.5 ‰, on average. This can be attributed to soil organic matter degradation, volatile nitrogen losses, nitrogen leaching and a general opening of the N-cycle. Similarly, the intensively degraded savanna soils, the cultivated soils and the soils under disturbed forests on the foothill of Mt. Kilimanjaro reveal very positive δ(15)N values around 6.5 ‰. In contrast, the undisturbed forest soils in the montane zone are more depleted in (15)N, indicating that here the N-cycle is relatively closed. However, significantly higher δ(15)N values characterise the upper montane forest zone at the transition to the subalpine zone. We suggest that this reflects N-losses by the recently monitored and climate change and antropogenically induced increasing fire frequency pushing the upper montane rainforest boundary rapidly downhill. Overall, we conclude that the analysis of the (15)N natural abundance in high-mountain ecosystems is a purposeful tool for detecting land-use- or climate change-induced soil degradation and N-cycle opening.