Simple additive effects are rare: a quantitative review of plant biomass and soil process responses to combined manipulations of CO2 and temperature

Fungal identity mediates the impacts of multiple stressors on freshwater ecosystems

Predicting how multiple anthropogenic stressors affect natural ecosystems is a major challenge in ecology. Freshwater ecosystems are threatened worldwide by multiple co-occurring stressors, which can affect aquatic biodiversity, ecosystem functioning and human wellbeing. In stream ecosystems, aquatic fungi play a crucial role in global biogeochemical cycles and food web dynamics, therefore, assessing the functional consequences of fungal biodiversity loss under multiple stressors is crucial. Here, a microcosm approach was used to investigate the effects of multiple stressors (increased temperature and nutrients, drying, and biodiversity loss) on three ecosystem processes: organic matter decomposition, fungal reproduction, and fungal biomass accrual. Net effects of stressors were antagonistic for organic matter decomposition, but additive for fungal reproduction and biomass accrual. Net effects of biodiversity were mainly positive for all processes, even under stress, demonstrating that diversity assures the maintenance of ecosystem processes. Fungal species displayed distinct contributions to each ecosystem process. Furthermore, species with negligible contributions under control conditions changed their role under stress, either enhancing or impairing the communities' performance, emphasizing the importance of fungal species identity. Our study highlights that distinct fungal species have different sensitivities to environmental variability and have different influence on the overall performance of the community. Therefore, preserving high fungal diversity is crucial to maintain fungal species with key ecosystem functions within aquatic communities in face of environmental change.

Assessing the response of an urban stream ecosystem to salinization under different flow regimes

Urban streams are exposed to a variety of anthropogenic stressors. Freshwater salinization is a key stressor in these ecosystems that is predicted to be further exacerbated by climate change, which causes simultaneous changes in flow parameters, potentially resulting in non-additive effects on aquatic ecosystems. However, the effects of salinization and flow velocity on urban streams are still poorly understood as multiple-stressor experiments are often conducted at pristine rather than urban sites. Therefore, we conducted a mesocosm experiment at the Boye River, a recently restored stream located in a highly urbanized area in Western Germany, and applied recurrent pulses of salinity along a gradient (NaCl, 9 h daily of +0 to +2.5 mS/cm) in combination with normal and reduced current velocities (20 cm/s vs. 10 cm/s). Using a comprehensive assessment across multiple organism groups (macroinvertebrates, eukaryotic algae, fungi, parasites) and ecosystem functions (primary production, organic-matter decomposition), we show that flow velocity reduction has a pervasive impact, causing community shifts for almost all assessed organism groups (except fungi) and inhibiting organic-matter decomposition. Salinization affected only dynamic components of community assembly by enhancing invertebrate emigration via drift and reducing fungal reproduction. We caution that the comparatively small impact of salt in our study can be due to legacy effects from past salt pollution by coal mining activities >30 years ago. Nevertheless, our results suggest that urban stream management should prioritize the continuity of a minimum discharge to maintain ecosystem integrity. Our study exemplifies a holistic approach for the assessment of multiple-stressor impacts on streams, which is needed to inform the establishment of a salinity threshold above which mitigation actions must be taken.

Responses of marine trophic levels to the combined effects of ocean acidification and warming

Marine organisms are simultaneously exposed to anthropogenic stressors associated with ocean acidification and ocean warming, with expected interactive effects. Species from different trophic levels with dissimilar characteristics and evolutionary histories are likely to respond differently. Here, we perform a meta-analysis of controlled experiments including both ocean acidification and ocean warming factors to investigate single and interactive effects of these stressors on marine species. Contrary to expectations, we find that synergistic interactions are less common (16%) than additive (40%) and antagonistic (44%) interactions overall and their proportion decreases with increasing trophic level. Predators are the most tolerant trophic level to both individual and combined effects. For interactive effects, calcifying and non-calcifying species show similar patterns. We also identify climate region-specific patterns, with interactive effects ranging from synergistic in temperate regions to compensatory in subtropical regions, to positive in tropical regions. Our findings improve understanding of how ocean warming, and acidification affect marine trophic levels and highlight the need for deeper consideration of multiple stressors in conservation efforts.

Warming and altered precipitation independently and interactively suppress alpine soil microbial growth in a decadal-long experiment

Warming and precipitation anomalies affect terrestrial carbon balance partly through altering microbial eco-physiological processes (e.g., growth and death) in soil. However, little is known about how such processes responds to simultaneous regime shifts in temperature and precipitation. We used the 18O-water quantitative stable isotope probing approach to estimate bacterial growth in alpine meadow soils of the Tibetan Plateau after a decade of warming and altered precipitation manipulation. Our results showed that the growth of major taxa was suppressed by the single and combined effects of temperature and precipitation, eliciting 40-90% of growth reduction of whole community. The antagonistic interactions of warming and altered precipitation on population growth were common (~70% taxa), represented by the weak antagonistic interactions of warming and drought, and the neutralizing effects of warming and wet. The members in Solirubrobacter and Pseudonocardia genera had high growth rates under changed climate regimes. These results are important to understand and predict the soil microbial dynamics in alpine meadow ecosystems suffering from multiple climate change factors.

Warming-Induced Stimulation of Soil N2O Emissions Counteracted by Elevated CO2 from Nine-Year Agroecosystem Temperature and Free Air Carbon Dioxide Enrichment

Globally, agricultural soils account for approximately one-third of anthropogenic emissions of the potent greenhouse gas and stratospheric ozone-depleting substance nitrous oxide (N2O). Emissions of N2O from agricultural soils are affected by a number of global change factors, such as elevated air temperatures and elevated atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2). Yet, a mechanistic understanding of how these climatic factors affect N2O emissions in agricultural soils remains largely unresolved. Here, we investigate the soil N2O emission pathway using a 15N tracing approach in a nine-year field experiment using a combined temperature and free air carbon dioxide enrichment (T-FACE). We show that the effect of CO2 enrichment completely counteracts warming-induced stimulation of both nitrification- and denitrification-derived N2O emissions. The elevated CO2 induced decrease in pH and labile organic nitrogen (N) masked the stimulation of organic carbon and N by warming. Unexpectedly, both elevated CO2 and warming had little effect on the abundances of the nitrifying and denitrifying genes. Overall, our study confirms the importance of multifactorial experiments to understand N2O emission pathways from agricultural soils under climate change. This better understanding is a prerequisite for more accurate models and the development of effective options to combat climate change.

Twenty-five years of Open-Top Chambers in tropical environments: where, how, and what are we looking at regarding flora response to climate change?

MAIN CONCLUSION

Open-Top Chambers should be more used in tropical ecosystems to study climate change effects in plants as they are still insufficient to extract plant response patterns in these ecosystems. Understanding flora response to climate change (CC) is critical for predicting future ecosystem dynamics. Open-Top Chambers (OTCs) have been widely used to study the effects of CC on plants and are very popular in temperate ecosystems but are still underused in tropical regions. In this systematic review, we aimed to discuss the use of OTCs in the study of the effects of different agents of climate change on tropical flora by presenting scientometric data, discussing the technical aspects of its use and enumerating some observations on plant response patterns to climatic alterations in the tropics. Our analysis indicated that the bottleneck in choosing an OTC shape is not strictly related to its purpose or the type of parameter modulated; instead, passive or active approaches seem to be a more sensitive point. The common critical point in using this technique in warmer regions is overheating and decoupling, but it can be overcome with simple adaptations and extra features. The most frequently parameter modulated was CO2, followed by O3 and temperature. The plant families with more representatives in the studies analyzed were Fabaceae, Myrtaceae, and Poaceae, and the most represented biome was tropical and subtropical moist broadleaf forests. In conclusion, OTCs are a valuable and feasible tool to study CC effects on various tropical ecosystems, regardless of structure, active/passive approach, or other technical features. One of the primary advantages of this methodology is its applicability for in situ use, eliminating the need for plant transplantation. We encourage studies using OTC experimental design for plant conservation in the tropics.

Testing for synergistic effects of natural and anthropogenic disturbance on ecological communities at a landscape scale

Context

Anthropogenic and natural disturbances may interact synergistically, magnifying their individual effects on biodiversity. However, few studies have measured responses of ecological communities to multiple stressors at landscape scales.

Objectives

We use a long-term dataset to test for synergistic effects of anthropogenic and natural disturbance on plant community diversity and composition in a large protected area.

Methods

We quantified changes in plant communities over two decades in 98 plots in Waterton Lakes National Park, Canada. Fifty-three plots burned in a wildfire in the interim. We modeled the effects of wildfire, proximity to trails or roads, and their interaction on changes in species richness, community composition, relative abundance of disturbance-associated species, and colonization by exotic species.

Results

Interactions between wildfire and proximity to roads and trails affected all metrics except species richness. Only one interaction was synergistic: the relative abundance of disturbance-associated species following wildfire was magnified closer to recreational corridors. The other community metrics showed unexpected patterns. For example, plots with no exotic species in the baseline survey that burned in the wildfire were more likely to gain exotic species than unburned plots only when they were distant from recreational corridors.

Conclusions

Our study demonstrates interactive effects of natural and anthropogenic disturbance at landscape scales within a protected area. Plant community response to wildfire was influenced by proximity to recreational corridors, sometimes in surprising ways. As the frequency and severity of anthropogenic and natural disturbances both continue to rise, documenting the prevalence and magnitude of interactions between them is key to predicting long-term effects and designing mitigation strategies.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s10980-024-01844-w.

Synergistic effects of multiple global change drivers on terrestrial ecosystem carbon sink

Multiple global change drivers typically co-occur in terrestrial ecosystems, usually with complex interactions on ecosystem carbon fluxes. However, how they interactively impact terrestrial carbon sinks remains unknown. Here, we synthesized 82 field experiments that studied the individual and pairwise effects among nitrogen addition (N), increased precipitation (IP), elevated CO2 (eCO2) and warming, with direct measurements of net ecosystem productivity (NEP), gross ecosystem productivity (GEP) and ecosystem respiration (ER). We found that synergistic interactions mostly occurred between pairs of global change drivers on carbon fluxes. Moreover, these interactions varied with treatment magnitude, experimental duration and background precipitation. Specifically, the synergistic effect of N × IP became stronger with experimental precipitation magnitude and background rainfall. With an increasing N addition rate, N and eCO2 had weaker interactive effects on NEP. Warming and IP were more synergic to enhance NEP with higher levels of warming magnitude. However, the interactive effects of N × eCO2 on ER decreased over the experimental duration. Overall, this study provides new insights into the context-dependent occurrence of interactions among multiple global change drivers on ecosystem carbon sinks. These new findings are valuable to validate land C-cycle models with complex global change interactions and advance the next generations of future experimental design.

Long-term satellite observations show continuous increase of vegetation growth enhancement in urban environment

Urbanization shows continuous expansion and development, ushering in the co-evolution of urban environments and vegetation over time. Recent remote sensing-based studies have discovered prevalent vegetation growth enhancement in urban environments. However, whether there is a temporal evolution of the growth enhancement remains unknown and unexplored. Here we expanded the existing framework for assessing the long-term impact of urbanization on vegetation greenness (enhanced vegetation index, EVI) using long time series of remote sensing images and applied it in Changsha, the capital city of Hunan province in China. Results showed that vegetation growth experienced widespread enhancement from 2000 to 2017, and increased 1.8 times from 2000 to 2017, suggesting strong continuous adaptive capability of vegetation to urban conditions. Although the overall impact of urbanization was negative due to the replacement of vegetated surfaces, the growth enhancement nevertheless offset or compensated the direct loss of vegetated cover during urbanization in the magnitude of 28 % in 2000 to 44 % in 2017. Our study also revealed large spatial heterogeneity in vegetation growth response among various districts at different urbanization levels and found an emergent trend under the observed spatial heterogeneity toward an asymptotic maximum with urbanization, showing EVI converges to 0.22 in highly urbanized areas. We further found that the positive effect of urbanization on vegetation growth is a function of urbanization intensity and time, which implies that the effect of the urban environment on vegetation can be simulated and predicted, and can be verified in more cities in the future. Our study is the first to successfully quantify long-term spatial patterns on the co-evolution of urbanization and vegetation, providing a new understanding of the continuous adaptive responses of vegetation growth to urbanization and shedding light on predicting biological responses to future environmental change.

Decadal soil warming decreased vascular plant above and belowground production in a subarctic grassland by inducing nitrogen limitation

Below and aboveground vegetation dynamics are crucial in understanding how climate warming may affect terrestrial ecosystem carbon cycling. In contrast to aboveground biomass, the response of belowground biomass to long-term warming has been poorly studied. Here, we characterized the impacts of decadal geothermal warming at two levels (on average +3.3°C and +7.9°C) on below and aboveground plant biomass stocks and production in a subarctic grassland. Soil warming did not change standing root biomass and even decreased fine root production and reduced aboveground biomass and production. Decadal soil warming also did not significantly alter the root-shoot ratio. The linear stepwise regression model suggested that following 10 yr of soil warming, temperature was no longer the direct driver of these responses, but losses of soil N were. Soil N losses, due to warming-induced decreases in organic matter and water retention capacity, were identified as key driver of the decreased above and belowground production. The reduction in fine root production was accompanied by thinner roots with increased specific root area. These results indicate that after a decade of soil warming, plant productivity in the studied subarctic grassland was affected by soil warming mainly by the reduction in soil N.

Carbon Sequestration Potential of Biomass Production along Highways in China

In response to climate change, China is making great efforts to increase the green area for carbon sequestration. Road verges, as marginal land with favorable conditions for plant growth and ease of transportation, can be used for biomass production, but the biomass production and carbon sequestration potential have not been assessed. Here, we mapped the biomass production potential of road verges in China by combining a biomass model and Geographic Information System and then evaluated the effect of road runoff and CO2 fertilization on the production according to the runoff coefficient and vehicle emission inventory. Nationwide, road verges can produce 15.86 Mt C yr-1 of biomass. Road runoff contributes to a biomass production of 1.26 Mt C yr-1 through increasing soil water availability, which mainly occurs in arid regions. The CO2 fertilization effect by vehicle emission is considerable in Eastern and Southern China, contributing to a production of 0.09 Mt C yr-1. Life cycle assessment shows that major road verges in China have a carbon sequestration potential of 6.87 Mt C yr-1 currently. Our results revealed that road verges can make a significant contribution to carbon neutrality under proper management.

Chemical Mixtures and Multiple Stressors: Same but Different?

Ecosystems are strongly influenced by multiple anthropogenic stressors, including a wide range of chemicals and their mixtures. Studies on the effects of multiple stressors have largely focussed on nonchemical stressors, whereas studies on chemical mixtures have largely ignored other stressors. However, both research areas face similar challenges and require similar tools and methods to predict the joint effects of chemicals or nonchemical stressors, and frameworks to integrate multiple chemical and nonchemical stressors are missing. We provide an overview of the research paradigms, tools, and methods commonly used in multiple stressor and chemical mixture research and discuss potential domains of cross-fertilization and joint challenges. First, we compare the general paradigms of ecotoxicology and (applied) ecology to explain the historical divide. Subsequently, we compare methods and approaches for the identification of interactions, stressor characterization, and designing experiments. We suggest that both multiple stressor and chemical mixture research are too focused on interactions and would benefit from integration regarding null model selection. Stressor characterization is typically more costly for chemical mixtures. While for chemical mixtures comprehensive classification systems at suborganismal level have been developed, recent classification systems for multiple stressors account for environmental context. Both research areas suffer from rather simplified experimental designs that focus on only a limited number of stressors, chemicals, and treatments. We discuss concepts that can guide more realistic designs capturing spatiotemporal stressor dynamics. We suggest that process-based and data-driven models are particularly promising to tackle the challenge of prediction of effects of chemical mixtures and nonchemical stressors on (meta-)communities and (meta-)food webs. We propose a framework to integrate the assessment of effects for multiple stressors and chemical mixtures. Environ Toxicol Chem 2023;42:1915-1936. © 2023 The Authors. Environmental Toxicology and Chemistry published by Wiley Periodicals LLC on behalf of SETAC.

CO2 fertilization contributed more than half of the observed forest biomass increase in northern extra-tropical land

The existence of a large-biomass carbon (C) sink in Northern Hemisphere extra-tropical ecosystems (NHee) is well-established, but the relative contribution of different potential drivers remains highly uncertain. Here we isolated the historical role of carbon dioxide (CO2 ) fertilization by integrating estimates from 24 CO2 -enrichment experiments, an ensemble of 10 dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs) and two observation-based biomass datasets. Application of the emergent constraint technique revealed that DGVMs underestimated the historical response of plant biomass to increasing [CO2 ] in forests (β Forest Mod ) but overestimated the response in grasslands (β Grass Mod ) since the 1850s. Combining the constrainedβ Forest Mod (0.86 ± 0.28 kg C m-2  [100 ppm]-1 ) with observed forest biomass changes derived from inventories and satellites, we identified that CO2 fertilization alone accounted for more than half (54 ± 18% and 64 ± 21%, respectively) of the increase in biomass C storage since the 1990s. Our results indicate that CO2 fertilization dominated the forest biomass C sink over the past decades, and provide an essential step toward better understanding the key role of forests in land-based policies for mitigating climate change.

Response of Fragaria vesca to projected change in temperature, water availability and concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere

The high rate of climate change may soon expose plants to conditions beyond their adaptation limits. Clonal plants might be particularly affected due to limited genotypic diversity of their populations, potentially decreasing their adaptability. We therefore tested the ability of a widely distributed predominantly clonally reproducing herb (Fragaria vesca) to cope with periods of drought and flooding in climatic conditions predicted to occur at the end of the twenty-first century, i.e. on average 4 °C warmer and with twice the concentration of CO2 in the air (800 ppm) than the current state. We found that F. vesca can phenotypically adjust to future climatic conditions, although its drought resistance may be reduced. Increased temperature and CO2 levels in the air had a far greater effect on growth, phenology, reproduction, and gene expression than the temperature increase itself, and promoted resistance of F. vesca to repeated flooding periods. Higher temperature promoted clonal over sexual reproduction, and increased temperature and CO2 concentration in the air triggered change in expression of genes controlling the level of self-pollination. We conclude that F. vesca can acclimatise to predicted climate change, but the increased ratio of clonal to sexual reproduction and the alteration of genes involved in the self-(in)compatibility system may be associated with reduced genotypic diversity of its populations, which may negatively impact its ability to genetically adapt to novel climate in the long-term.

Variation in methane uptake by grassland soils in the context of climate change - A review of effects and mechanisms

Grassland soils are climate-dependent ecosystems that have a significant greenhouse gas mitigating function through their ability to store large amounts of carbon (C). However, what is often not recognized is that they can also exhibit a high methane (CH₄) uptake capacity that could be influenced by future increases in atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO₂) concentration and variations in temperature and water availability. While there is a wealth of information on C sequestration in grasslands there is less consensus on how climate change impacts on CH₄ uptake or the underlying mechanisms involved. To address this, we assessed existing knowledge on the impact of climate change components on CH₄ uptake by grassland soils. Increases in precipitation associated with soils with a high background soil moisture content generally resulted in a reduction in CH₄ uptake or even net emissions, while the effect was opposite in soils with a relatively low background moisture content. Initially wet grasslands subject to the combined effects of warming and water deficits may absorb more CH₄, mainly due to increased gas diffusivity. However, in the longer-term heat and drought stress may reduce the activity of methanotrophs when the mean soil moisture content is below the optimum for their survival. Enhanced plant productivity and growth under elevated CO₂, increased soil moisture and changed nutrient concentrations, can differentially affect methanotrophic activity, which is often reduced by increasing N deposition. Our estimations showed that CH₄ uptake in grassland soils can change from -57.7 % to +6.1 % by increased precipitation, from -37.3 % to +85.3 % by elevated temperatures, from +0.87 % to +92.4 % by decreased precipitation, and from -66.7 % to +27.3 % by elevated CO₂. In conclusion, the analysis suggests that grasslands under the influence of warming and drought may absorb even more CH₄, mainly because of reduced soil water contents and increased gas diffusivity.

Stomatal responses of terrestrial plants to global change

Quantifying the stomatal responses of plants to global change factors is crucial for modeling terrestrial carbon and water cycles. Here we synthesize worldwide experimental data to show that stomatal conductance (g_s) decreases with elevated carbon dioxide (CO₂), warming, decreased precipitation, and tropospheric ozone pollution, but increases with increased precipitation and nitrogen (N) deposition. These responses vary with treatment magnitude, plant attributes (ambient g_s, vegetation biomes, and plant functional types), and climate. All two-factor combinations (except warming + N deposition) significantly reduce g_s, and their individual effects are commonly additive but tend to be antagonistic as the effect sizes increased. We further show that rising CO₂ and warming would dominate the future change of plant g_s across biomes. The results of our meta-analysis provide a foundation for understanding and predicting plant g_s across biomes and guiding manipulative experiment designs in a real world where global change factors do not occur in isolation.

When things get MESI: The Manipulation Experiments Synthesis Initiative-A coordinated effort to synthesize terrestrial global change experiments

Responses of the terrestrial biosphere to rapidly changing environmental conditions are a major source of uncertainty in climate projections. In an effort to reduce this uncertainty, a wide range of global change experiments have been conducted that mimic future conditions in terrestrial ecosystems, manipulating CO₂ , temperature, and nutrient and water availability. Syntheses of results across experiments provide a more general sense of ecosystem responses to global change, and help to discern the influence of background conditions such as climate and vegetation type in determining global change responses. Several independent syntheses of published data have yielded distinct databases for specific objectives. Such parallel, uncoordinated initiatives carry the risk of producing redundant data collection efforts and have led to contrasting outcomes without clarifying the underlying reason for divergence. These problems could be avoided by creating a publicly available, updatable, curated database. Here, we report on a global effort to collect and curate 57,089 treatment responses across 3644 manipulation experiments at 1145 sites, simulating elevated CO₂ , warming, nutrient addition, and precipitation changes. In the resulting Manipulation Experiments Synthesis Initiative (MESI) database, effects of experimental global change drivers on carbon and nutrient cycles are included, as well as ancillary data such as background climate, vegetation type, treatment magnitude, duration, and, unique to our database, measured soil properties. Our analysis of the database indicates that most experiments are short term (one or few growing seasons), conducted in the USA, Europe, or China, and that the most abundantly reported variable is aboveground biomass. We provide the most comprehensive multifactor global change database to date, enabling the research community to tackle open research questions, vital to global policymaking. The MESI database, freely accessible at doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.7153253, opens new avenues for model evaluation and synthesis-based understanding of how global change affects terrestrial biomes. We welcome contributions to the database on GitHub.

Contrasting responses of peak vegetation growth to asymmetric warming: Evidences from FLUXNET and satellite observations

The peak growth of plant in summer is an important indicator of the capacity of terrestrial ecosystem productivity, and ongoing studies have shown its responses to climate warming as represented in the mean temperature. However, the impacts from the asymmetrical warming, that is, different rates in the changes of daytime (T_max ) and nighttime (T_min ) warming were mostly ignored. Using 60 flux sites (674 site-year in total) measurements and satellite observations from two independent satellite platforms (Global Inventory Monitoring and Modeling Studies [1982-2015]; MODIS [2000-2020]) over the Northern Hemisphere (≥30°N), here we show that the peak growth, as represented by both flux-based maximum primary productivity and the maximum greenness indices (maximum normalized difference vegetation index and enhanced vegetation index), responded oppositely to daytime and nighttime warming. T max - T min + (peak growth showed negative responses to T_max , but positive responses to T_min ) dominated in most ecosystems and climate types, especially in water-limited ecosystems, while T max + T min - (peak growth showed positive responses to T_max , but negative responses to T_min ) was primarily observed in high latitude regions. These contrasting responses could be explained by the strong association between asymmetric warming and water conditions, including soil moisture, evapotranspiration/potential evapotranspiration, and the vapor pressure deficit. Our results are therefore important to the understanding of the responses of peak growth to climate change, and consequently a better representation of asymmetrical warming in future ecosystem models by differentiating the contributions between daytime and nighttime warming.

Meta-analysis shows forest soil CO2 effluxes are dependent on the disturbance regime and biome type

Forest soil CO₂ efflux (FCO₂ ) is a crucial process in global carbon cycling; however, how FCO₂ responds to disturbance regimes in different forest biomes is poorly understood. We quantified the effects of disturbance regimes on FCO₂ across boreal, temperate, tropical and Mediterranean forests based on 1240 observations from 380 studies. Globally, climatic perturbations such as elevated CO₂ concentration, warming and increased precipitation increase FCO₂ by 13% to 25%. FCO₂ is increased by forest conversion to grassland and elevated carbon input by forest management practices but reduced by decreased carbon input, fire and acid rain. Disturbance also changes soil temperature and water content, which in turn affect the direction and magnitude of disturbance influences on FCO₂ . FCO₂ is disturbance- and biome-type dependent and such effects should be incorporated into earth system models to improve the projection of the feedback between the terrestrial C cycle and climate change.

Is the world wormier than it used to be? We'll never know without natural history collections

Many disease ecologists and conservation biologists believe that the world is wormier than it used to be-that is, that parasites are increasing in abundance through time. This argument is intuitively appealing. Ecologists typically see parasitic infections, through their association with disease, as a negative endpoint, and are accustomed to attributing negative outcomes to human interference in the environment, so it slots neatly into our worldview that habitat destruction, biodiversity loss and climate change should have the collateral consequence of causing outbreaks of parasites. But surprisingly, the hypothesis that parasites are increasing in abundance through time remains entirely untested for the vast majority of wildlife parasite species. Historical data on parasites are nearly impossible to find, which leaves no baseline against which to compare contemporary parasite burdens. If we want to know whether the world is wormier than it used to be, there is only one major research avenue that will lead to an answer: parasitological examination of specimens preserved in natural history collections. Recent advances demonstrate that, for many specimen types, it is possible to extract reliable data on parasite presence and abundance. There are millions of suitable specimens that exist in collections around the world. When paired with contemporaneous environmental data, these parasitological data could even point to potential drivers of change in parasite abundance, including climate, pollution or host density change. We explain how to use preserved specimens to address pressing questions in parasite ecology, give a few key examples of how collections-based parasite ecology can resolve these questions, identify some pitfalls and workarounds, and suggest promising areas for research. Natural history specimens are 'parasite time capsules' that give ecologists the opportunity to test whether infectious disease is on the rise and to identify what forces might be driving these changes over time. This approach will facilitate major advances in a new sub-discipline: the historical ecology of parasitism.

Elevated temperature and CO2 strongly affect the growth strategies of soil bacteria

The trait-based strategies of microorganisms appear to be phylogenetically conserved, but acclimation to climate change may complicate the scenario. To study the roles of phylogeny and environment on bacterial responses to sudden moisture increases, we determine bacterial population-specific growth rates by ¹⁸O-DNA quantitative stable isotope probing (¹⁸O-qSIP) in soils subjected to a free-air CO₂ enrichment (FACE) combined with warming. We find that three growth strategies of bacterial taxa - rapid, intermediate and slow responders, defined by the timing of the peak growth rates - are phylogenetically conserved, even at the sub-phylum level. For example, members of class Bacilli and Sphingobacteriia are mainly rapid responders. Climate regimes, however, modify the growth strategies of over 90% of species, partly confounding the initial phylogenetic pattern. The growth of rapid bacterial responders is more influenced by phylogeny, whereas the variance for slow responders is primarily explained by environmental conditions. Overall, these results highlight the role of phylogenetic and environmental constraints in understanding and predicting the growth strategies of soil microorganisms under global change scenarios.

The climate change mitigation potential of annual grasslands under future climates

Composted manure and green waste amendments have been shown to increase net carbon (C) sequestration in rangeland soils and have been proposed as a means to help lower atmospheric CO₂ concentrations. However, the effect of climate change on soil organic C (SOC) stocks and greenhouse gas emissions in rangelands is not well understood, and the viability of climate change mitigation strategies under future conditions is even less certain. We used a process-based biogeochemical model (DayCent) at a daily time step to explore the long-term effects of potential future climate changes on C and greenhouse gas dynamics in annual grassland ecosystems. We then used the model to explore how the same ecosystems might respond to climate change following compost amendments to soils and determined the long-term viability of net SOC sequestration under changing climates. We simulated net primary productivity (NPP), SOC, and greenhouse gas fluxes across seven California annual grasslands with and without compost amendments. We drove the DayCent simulations with field data and with site-specific daily climate data from two Earth system models (CanESM2 and HadGEM-ES) and two representative concentration pathways (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) through 2100. NPP and SOC stocks in unamended and amended ecosystems were surprisingly insensitive to projected climate changes. A one-time amendment of compost to rangeland acted as a slow-release organic fertilizer and increased NPP by up to 390-814 kg C ha^-1  year^-1 across sites. The amendment effect on NPP was not sensitive to Earth system model or emissions scenario and endured through the end of the century. Net SOC sequestration amounted to 1.96 ± 0.02 Mg C ha^-1 relative to unamended soils at the maximum amendment effect. Averaged across sites and scenarios, SOC sequestration peaked 22 ± 1 years after amendment and declined but remained positive throughout the century. Though compost stimulated nitrous oxide (N₂ O) emissions, the cumulative net emissions (in CO₂ equivalents) due to compost were far less than the amount of SOC sequestered. Compost amendments resulted in a net climate benefit of 69.6 ± 0.5 Tg CO₂ e 20 ± 1 years after amendment if applied to similar ecosystems across the state, amounting to 39% of California's rangeland. These results suggest that the biogeochemical benefits of a single amendment of compost to rangelands in California are insensitive to climate change and could contribute to decadal-scale climate change mitigation goals alongside emissions reductions.

Short-term elevated temperature and CO2 promote photosynthetic induction in the C3 plant Glycine max, but not in the C4 plant Amaranthus tricolor

The continuous increases of atmospheric temperature and CO2 concentration will impact global photosynthesis. However, there are few studies considering the interaction of elevated temperature (eT) and elevated CO2 (eCO2 ) on dynamic photosynthesis, particularly for C4 species. We examine dynamic photosynthesis under four different temperature and [CO2 ] treatments: (1) 400ppm×28°C (CT); (2) 400ppm×33°C (CT+); (3) 800ppm×28°C (C+T); and (4) 800ppm×33°C (C+T+). In Glycine max L., the time required to reach 50% (T 50%A ) and 90% (T 90%A ) of full photosynthetic induction was smaller under the CT+, C+T, and C+T+ treatments than those under the CT treatment. In Amaranthus tricolor L., however, neither T 50%A nor T 90%A was not significantly affected by eT or eCO2 . In comparison with the CT treatment, the achieved carbon gain was increased by 58.3% (CT+), 112% (C+T), and 136.6% (C+T+) in G. max and was increased by 17.1% (CT+), 2.6% (C+T) and 56.9% (C+T+) in A. tricolor . The increases of achieved carbon gain in G. max were attributable to both improved photosynthetic induction efficiency (IE) and enhanced steady-state photosynthesis, whereas those in A. tricolor were attributable to enhanced steady-state photosynthesis.

Inhibition of Elevated Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide to Soil Gross Nitrogen Mineralization Aggravated by Warming in an Agroecosystem

The response of soil gross nitrogen (N) cycling to elevated carbon dioxide (CO₂) concentration and temperature has been extensively studied in natural and semi-natural ecosystems. However, how these factors and their interaction affect soil gross N dynamics in agroecosystems, strongly disturbed by human activity, remains largely unknown. Here, a ¹⁵N tracer study under aerobic incubation was conducted to quantify soil gross N transformation rates in a paddy field exposed to elevated CO₂ and/or temperature for 9 years in a warming and free air CO₂ enrichment experiment. Results show that long-term exposure to elevated CO₂ significantly inhibited or tended to inhibit gross N mineralization at elevated and ambient temperatures, respectively. The inhibition of soil gross N mineralization by elevating CO₂ was aggravated by warming in this paddy field. The inhibition of gross N mineralization under elevated CO₂ could be due to decreased soil pH. Long-term exposure to elevated CO₂ also significantly reduced gross autotrophic nitrification at ambient temperature, probably due to decreased soil pH and gross N mineralization. In contrast, none of the gross N transformation rates were affected by long-term exposure to warming alone. Our study provides strong evidence that long-term dual exposure to elevated CO₂ and temperature has a greater negative effect on gross N mineralization rate than the single exposure, potentially resulting in progressive N limitation in this agroecosystem and ultimately increasing demand for N fertilizer.

Net effect of environmental fluctuations in multiple global-change drivers across the tree of life

Jensen's inequality predicts that the response of any given system to average constant conditions is different from its average response to varying ones. Environmental fluctuations in abiotic conditions are pervasive on Earth; yet until recently, most ecological research has addressed the effects of multiple environmental drivers by assuming constant conditions. One could thus expect to find significant deviations in the magnitude of their effects on ecosystems when environmental fluctuations are considered. Drawing on experimental studies published during the last 30 years reporting more than 950 response ratios (n = 5,700), we present a comprehensive analysis of the role that environmental fluctuations play across the tree of life. In contrast to the predominance of interactive effects of global-change drivers reported in the literature, our results show that their cumulative effects were additive (58%), synergistic (26%), and antagonistic (16%) when environmental fluctuations were present. However, the dominant type of interaction varied by trophic level (autotrophs: interactive; heterotrophs: additive) and phylogenetic group (additive in Animalia; additive and positive antagonism in Chromista; negative antagonism and synergism in Plantae). In addition, we identify the need to tackle how complex communities respond to fluctuating environments, widening the phylogenetic and biogeographic ranges considered, and to consider other drivers beyond warming and acidification as well as longer timescales. Environmental fluctuations must be taken into account in experimental and modeling studies as well as conservation plans to better predict the nature, magnitude, and direction of the impacts of global change on organisms and ecosystems.

Distinct Elevational Patterns and Their Linkages of Soil Bacteria and Plant Community in An Alpine Meadow of the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau

Soil microbes play important roles in determining plant community composition and terrestrial ecosystem functions, as well as the direction and extent of terrestrial ecosystem feedback to environmental changes. Understanding the distribution patterns of plant and soil microbiota along elevation gradients is necessary to shed light on important ecosystem functions. In this study, soil bacteria along an elevation gradient in an alpine meadow ecosystem of the Qinghai−Tibetan Plateau were investigated using Illumina sequencing and GeoChip technologies. The community structure of the soil bacteria and plants presented a continuous trend along the elevation gradient, and their alpha diversity displayed different distribution patterns; however, there were no linkages between them. Beta diversity of the soil bacteria and plants was significantly influenced by elevational distance changes (p < 0.05). Functional gene categories involved in nitrogen and phosphorus cycling had faster changes than those involved in carbon degradation, and functional genes involved in labile carbon degradation also had faster variations than those involved in recalcitrant carbon degradation with elevational changes. According to Pearson’s correlation, partial Mantel test analysis, and canonical correspondence analysis, soil pH and mean annual precipitation were important environmental variables in influencing soil bacterial diversity. Soil bacterial diversity and plant diversity had different distribution patterns along the elevation gradient.

Understanding the combined effects of multiple stressors: A new perspective on a longstanding challenge

Wildlife populations and their habitats are exposed to an expanding diversity and intensity of stressors caused by human activities, within the broader context of natural processes and increasing pressure from climate change. Estimating how these multiple stressors affect individuals, populations, and ecosystems is thus of growing importance. However, their combined effects often cannot be predicted reliably from the individual effects of each stressor, and we lack the mechanistic understanding and analytical tools to predict their joint outcomes. We review the science of multiple stressors and present a conceptual framework that captures and reconciles the variety of existing approaches for assessing combined effects. Specifically, we show that all approaches lie along a spectrum, reflecting increasing assumptions about the mechanisms that regulate the action of single stressors and their combined effects. An emphasis on mechanisms improves analytical precision and predictive power but could introduce bias if the underlying assumptions are incorrect. A purely empirical approach has less risk of bias but requires adequate data on the effects of the full range of anticipated combinations of stressor types and magnitudes. We illustrate how this spectrum can be formalised into specific analytical methods, using an example of North Atlantic right whales feeding on limited prey resources while simultaneously being affected by entanglement in fishing gear. In practice, case-specific management needs and data availability will guide the exploration of the stressor combinations of interest and the selection of a suitable trade-off between precision and bias. We argue that the primary goal for adaptive management should be to identify the most practical and effective ways to remove or reduce specific combinations of stressors, bringing the risk of adverse impacts on populations and ecosystems below acceptable thresholds.

Evidence, causes, and consequences of declining nitrogen availability in terrestrial ecosystems

The productivity of ecosystems and their capacity to support life depends on access to reactive nitrogen (N). Over the past century, humans have more than doubled the global supply of reactive N through industrial and agricultural activities. However, long-term records demonstrate that N availability is declining in many regions of the world. Reactive N inputs are not evenly distributed, and global changes-including elevated atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO₂) levels and rising temperatures-are affecting ecosystem N supply relative to demand. Declining N availability is constraining primary productivity, contributing to lower leaf N concentrations, and reducing the quality of herbivore diets in many ecosystems. We outline the current state of knowledge about declining N availability and propose actions aimed at characterizing and responding to this emerging challenge.

Application of Cmic/Corg in the Soil Fertility Evaluation of Typical Forests in the Yulin Sandy Area

The microbial quotient (Cmic/Corg) has been used extensively to evaluate agriculture soil fertility, but the microbial sensitivity should be considered during the forestry process. Therefore, the objective of this study was to examine a soil fertility evaluation method applied to four vegetation types in the Mu Us Sandland in northwestern China, using the relationship between the Cmic/Corg ratio and soil moisture, and soil temperature under the premise of microbial diversity. The final predictive value was C. microphylla (0.2198) > P. sylvestris (0.2175) > P. tabulaeformis (0.0872) > S.psammophila (0.0767). We verified the evaluation results using two traditional methods, the back-propagation (BP) artificial neural network model and principal component analysis, which are widely used to evaluate soil quality based on the soil nutrient concentration. The results were the same as the Cmic/Corg predictions. We conclude that when the soil microbes are used in soil quality evaluations, the changing pattern should be fully considered.

Effects of combined abiotic stresses on nutrient content of European wheat and implications for nutritional security under climate change

Climate change is causing problems for agriculture, but the effect of combined abiotic stresses on crop nutritional quality is not clear. Here we studied the effect of 10 combinations of climatic conditions (temperature, CO₂, O₃ and drought) under controlled growth chamber conditions on the grain yield, protein, and mineral content of 3 wheat varieties. Results show that wheat plants under O₃ exposure alone concentrated + 15 to + 31% more grain N, Fe, Mg, Mn P and Zn, reduced K by − 5%, and C did not change. Ozone in the presence of elevated CO₂ and higher temperature enhanced the content of Fe, Mn, P and Zn by 2–18%. Water-limited chronic O₃ exposure resulted in + 9 to + 46% higher concentrations of all the minerals, except K. The effect of climate abiotic factors could increase the ability of wheat to meet adult daily dietary requirements by + 6% to + 12% for protein, Zn and Fe, but decrease those of Mg, Mn and P by − 3% to − 6%, and K by − 62%. The role of wheat in future nutrition security is discussed.

Contrasting drivers of belowground nitrogen cycling in a montane grassland exposed to a multifactorial global change experiment with elevated CO2 , warming, and drought

Depolymerization of high-molecular weight organic nitrogen (N) represents the major bottleneck of soil N cycling and yet is poorly understood compared to the subsequent inorganic N processes. Given the importance of organic N cycling and the rise of global change, we investigated the responses of soil protein depolymerization and microbial amino acid consumption to increased temperature, elevated atmospheric CO₂ , and drought. The study was conducted in a global change facility in a managed montane grassland in Austria, where elevated CO₂ (eCO₂ ) and elevated temperature (eT) were stimulated for 4 years, and were combined with a drought event. Gross protein depolymerization and microbial amino acid consumption rates (alongside with gross organic N mineralization and nitrification) were measured using ¹⁵ N isotope pool dilution techniques. Whereas eCO₂  showed no individual effect, eT had distinct effects which were modulated by season, with a negative effect of eT on soil organic N process rates in spring, neutral effects in summer, and positive effects in fall. We attribute this to a combination of changes in substrate availability and seasonal temperature changes. Drought led to a doubling of organic N process rates, which returned to rates found under ambient conditions within 3 months after rewetting. Notably, we observed a shift in the control of soil protein depolymerization, from plant substrate controls under continuous environmental change drivers (eT and eCO₂ ) to controls via microbial turnover and soil organic N availability under the pulse disturbance (drought). To the best of our knowledge, this is the first study which analyzed the individual versus combined effects of multiple global change factors and of seasonality on soil organic N processes and thereby strongly contributes to our understanding of terrestrial N cycling in a future world.

Effects of multiple global change factors on soil microbial richness, diversity and functional gene abundances: A meta-analysis

Soil microbial richness, diversity, and functional gene abundance are crucial factors affecting belowground ecosystem functions; however, there is still a lack of systematic understanding of their responses to global change. Here, we conducted a worldwide meta-analysis using 1071 observation data concerning the effects of global change factors (GCFs), including warming (W), increased precipitation (PPT+), decreased precipitation (PPT-), elevated CO₂ concentration (eCO₂), and nitrogen deposition (N), to evaluate their individual, combined, and interactive effects on soil microbial properties across different groups and ecosystems. Across the dataset, eCO₂ increased microbial richness and diversity by 40.5% and 4.6%, respectively; warming and N addition decreased the abundance of denitrification functional genes (nirS, nirK, and nozS); N addition had a greater impact on soil C-cycling functional genes than on N-cycling ones. Long-term precipitation change was conducive to the increase in soil microbial richness, and fungal richness change was more sensitive than bacterial richness, but the sensitivity of bacteria richness to N addition was positively correlated with experimental duration. Soil microbial richness, diversity, and functional gene abundances could be significantly affected by individual or multiple GCF changes, and their interactions are mainly additive. W×eCO₂ on microbial diversity, and N×PPT+ and W×N on N-cycling functional gene abundance showed synergistic interactions. Based on the limitations of the collected data and the findings, we suggest designing experiments with multiple GCFs and long experimental durations and incorporating the effects and interactions of multiple drivers into ecosystem models to accurately predict future soil microbial properties and functions under future global changes.

The stimulatory effect of elevated CO2 on soil respiration is unaffected by N addition

Global atmospheric CO₂ keeps rising and brings about significant effects on ecosystem carbon (C) cycling by altering C processes in soils. Soil C responses to elevated CO₂ are highly uncertain, and how elevated CO₂ interacts with other factors, such as nitrogen (N) availability, to influence soil C flux comprises an important source of this uncertainty, especially for those under-studied ecosystems. By conducting a manipulated CO₂ concentration and N availability experiment on typical alpine grassland (4600 m asl), we combined the five-year in-situ measurement of soil respiration (SR) with an incubation experiment of microbial metabolic efficiency in the lab to explore the response of SR to elevated CO₂ and N availability. The results showed that elevated CO₂ at ambient N conditions and enriched N equally stimulated SR during the experimental period, whereas N supply had no significant effect. Elevated CO₂ enhanced soil dissolved organic C and enzyme activity, while had marginal effects on microbial biomass and C use efficiency (CUE). Strengthened microbial activity dominated SR stimulation under elevated CO₂. Enriched N boosted enzyme activity and microbial CUE. N availability played divergent roles in mediating SR. The negliable regulation of N supply on elevated CO₂ effects on SR was the offset consequences of the negative impacts of enhanced CUE and the positive contribution of heightened enzyme activity. Our findings suggest that rising CO₂ would accelerate soil C cycling of the alpine grassland under various N regimes by stimulating microbial activity instead of lowering microbial metabolic efficiency. Such results are crucial for understanding the role of alpine ecosystems in the global C cycle.

Pastures and Climate Extremes: Impacts of Cool Season Warming and Drought on the Productivity of Key Pasture Species in a Field Experiment

Shifts in the timing, intensity and/or frequency of climate extremes, such as severe drought and heatwaves, can generate sustained shifts in ecosystem function with important ecological and economic impacts for rangelands and managed pastures. The Pastures and Climate Extremes experiment (PACE) in Southeast Australia was designed to investigate the impacts of a severe winter/spring drought (60% rainfall reduction) and, for a subset of species, a factorial combination of drought and elevated temperature (ambient +3°C) on pasture productivity. The experiment included nine common pasture and Australian rangeland species from three plant functional groups (C3 grasses, C4 grasses and legumes) planted in monoculture. Winter/spring drought resulted in productivity declines of 45% on average and up to 74% for the most affected species (Digitaria eriantha) during the 6-month treatment period, with eight of the nine species exhibiting significant yield reductions. Despite considerable variation in species' sensitivity to drought, C4 grasses were more strongly affected by this treatment than C3 grasses or legumes. Warming also had negative effects on cool-season productivity, associated at least partially with exceedance of optimum growth temperatures in spring and indirect effects on soil water content. The combination of winter/spring drought and year-round warming resulted in the greatest yield reductions. We identified responses that were either additive (Festuca), or less-than-additive (Medicago), where warming reduced the magnitude of drought effects. Results from this study highlight the sensitivity of diverse pasture species to increases in winter and spring drought severity similar to those predicted for this region, and that anticipated benefits of cool-season warming are unlikely to be realized. Overall, the substantial negative impacts on productivity suggest that future, warmer, drier climates will result in shortfalls in cool-season forage availability, with profound implications for the livestock industry and natural grazer communities.

Rapid evolution generates synergism between multiple stressors: Linking theory and an evolution experiment

Global change encompasses many co-occurring anthropogenic stressors. Understanding the interactions between these multiple stressors, whether they be additive, antagonistic or synergistic, is critical for ecosystem managers when prioritizing which stressors to mitigate in the face of global change. While such interactions between stressors appear prevalent, it remains unclear if and how these interactions change over time, as the majority of multiple-stressor studies rarely span multiple generations of study organisms. Although meta-analyses have reported some intriguing temporal trends in stressor interactions, for example that synergism may take time to emerge, the mechanistic basis for such observations is unknown. In this study, by analysing data from an evolution experiment with the rotifer Brachionus calyciflorus (~35 generations and 31,320 observations), we show that adaptation to multiple stressors shifts stressor interactions towards synergism. We show that trade-offs, where populations cannot optimally perform multiple tasks (i.e. adapting to multiple stressors), generate this bias towards synergism. We also show that removal of stressors from evolved populations does not necessarily increase fitness and that there is variation in the evolutionary trajectories of populations that experienced the same stressor regimes. Our results highlight outstanding questions at the interface between evolution and global change biology, and illustrate the importance of considering rapid adaptation when managing or restoring ecosystems subjected to multiple stressors under global change.

A global overview of studies about land management, land-use change, and climate change effects on soil organic carbon

Major drivers of gains or losses in soil organic carbon (SOC) include land management, land-use change, and climate change. Thousands of original studies have focused on these drivers of SOC change and are now compiled in a growing number of meta-analyses. To critically assess the research efforts in this domain, we retrieved and characterized 192 meta-analyses of SOC stocks or concentrations. These meta-analyses comprise more than 13,200 original studies conducted from 1910 to 2020 in 150 countries. First, we show that, despite a growing number of studies over time, the geographical coverage of studies is limited. For example, the effect of land management, land-use change, and climate change on SOC has been only occasionally studied in North and Central Africa, and in the Middle East and Central Asia. Second, the meta-analyses investigated a limited number of land management practices, mostly mineral fertilization, organic amendments, and tillage. Third, the meta-analyses demonstrated relatively low quality and transparency. Lastly, we discuss the mismatch between the increasing number of studies and the need for more local, reusable, and diversified knowledge on how to preserve high SOC stocks or restore depleted SOC stocks.

Enhancement of ecosystem carbon uptake in a dry shrubland under moderate warming: The role of nitrogen-driven changes in plant morphology

Net ecosystem CO₂ exchange is the result of net carbon uptake by plant photosynthesis and carbon loss by soil and plant respiration. Temperature increases due to climate change can modify the equilibrium between these fluxes and trigger ecosystem-climate feedbacks that can accelerate climate warming. As these dynamics have not been well studied in dry shrublands, we subjected a Mediterranean shrubland to a 10-year night-time temperature manipulation experiment that analyzed ecosystem carbon fluxes associated with dominant shrub species, together with several plant parameters related to leaf photosynthesis, leaf morphology, and canopy structure. Under moderate night-time warming (+0.9°C minimum daily temperature, no significant reduction in soil moisture), Cistus monspeliensis formed shoots with more leaves that were relatively larger and denser canopies that supported higher plant-level photosynthesis rates. Given that ecosystem respiration was not affected, this change in canopy morphology led to a significant enhancement in net ecosystem exchange (+47% at midday). The observed changes in shoot and canopy morphology were attributed to the improved nutritional state of the warmed plants, primarily due to changes in nitrogen cycling and higher nitrogen resorption efficiency in senescent leaves. Our results show that modifications in plant morphology triggered by moderate warming affected ecosystem CO₂  fluxes, providing the first evidence for enhanced daytime carbon uptake in a dry shrubland ecosystem under experimental warming.

Long-term warming and nitrogen fertilization affect C-, N- and P-acquiring hydrolase and oxidase activities in winter wheat monocropping soil

The enzymatic activities and ratios are critical indicators for organic matter decomposition and provide potentially positive feedback to carbon (C) loss under global warming. For agricultural soils under climate change, the effect of long-term warming on the activities of oxidases and hydrolases targeting C, nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) and their ratios is unclear, as well as whether and to what extend the response is modulated by long-term fertilization. A 9-year field experiment in the North China Plain, including an untreated control, warming, N fertilization, and combined (WN) treatment plots, compared the factorial effect of warming and fertilization. Long-term warming interacted with fertilization to stimulate the highest activities of C, N, and P hydrolases. Activities of C and P hydrolase increased from 8 to 69% by N fertilization, 9 to 53% by warming, and 28 to 130% by WN treatment compared to control, whereas the activities of oxidase increased from 4 to 16% in the WN soils. Both the warming and the WN treatments significantly increased the enzymatic C:N ratio from 0.06 to 0.16 and the vector length from 0.04 to 0.12 compared to the control soil, indicating higher energy and resource limitation for the soil microorganisms. Compared to WN, the warming induced similar ratio of oxidase to C hydrolase, showing a comparable ability of different microbial communities to utilize lignin substrates. The relationship analyses showed mineralization of organic N to mediate the decomposition of lignin and enzyme ratio in the long-term warming soil, while N and P hydrolases cooperatively benefited to induce more oxidase productions in the soil subject to both warming and N fertilization. We conclude that coupled resource limitations induced microbial acclimation to long-term warming in the agricultural soils experiencing high N fertilizer inputs.

A hierarchical, multivariate meta-analysis approach to synthesising global change experiments

Meta-analyses enable synthesis of results from globally distributed experiments to draw general conclusions about the impacts of global change factors on ecosystem function. Traditional meta-analyses, however, are challenged by the complexity and diversity of experimental results. We illustrate how several key issues can be addressed by a multivariate, hierarchical Bayesian meta-analysis (MHBM) approach applied to information extracted from published studies. We applied an MHBM to log-response ratios for aboveground biomass (AB, n = 300), belowground biomass (BB, n = 205) and soil CO₂ exchange (SCE, n = 544), representing 100 studies. The MHBM accounted for study duration, climate effects and covariation among the AB, BB and SCE responses to elevated CO₂ (eCO₂ ) and/or warming. The MHBM revealed significant among-study covariation in the AB and BB responses to experimental treatments. The MHBM imputed missing duration (4.2%) and climate (6%) data, and revealed that climate context governs how eCO₂ and warming impact ecosystem function. Predictions identified biomes that may be particularly sensitive to eCO₂ or warming, but that are under-represented in global change experiments. The MHBM approach offers a flexible and powerful tool for synthesising disparate experimental results reported across multiple studies, sites and response variables.

Impact of climate change on greenhouse gas emissions and water balance in a dryland-cropping region with variable precipitation

Wheat covers a significant fraction of the US Pacific Northwest (PNW) dryland agriculture. Past studies have suggested that management practices can differentially affect productivity and emission of greenhouse gases (GHGs) across the different agro-ecological Zones (AEZs) in PNW. In this study we used CropSyst, a biophysically-based cropping systems model that simulates crop processes and water and nitrogen cycles, with the purpose of evaluating relevant scenarios and contributing analyses to inform adaptation and mitigation strategies aimed at reducing and managing the risks of climate change. We compared the baseline historical period of 1980-2010 with three future periods: 2015-2045 (2030s), 2035-2065 (2050s), and 2055-2085 (2070s). The uncertainty of the future climate was captured using 12 general circulation models (GCMs) forced with two representative carbon dioxide concentration pathways (RCP 4.5 and 8.5). The study region was divided into three AEZs: crop-fallow (CF), continuous cropping to fallow transition (CCF), and continuous cropping (CC). The results indicated that areas with higher precipitation, N fertilization, and mineralization produced more N₂O emissions during both baseline and future periods. The average annual N₂O emission during the baseline period was between 1.8 and 4.1 kg ha^-1 depending on AEZ. The overall N₂O emission showed decreasing future trends from 2030s to 2070s which resulted from a higher proportion of N used by crops. From 2015 to 2085 under RCP 4.5, the average N₂O emission was between 1.8 and 4.4 kg ha^-1 year^-1. They are slightly higher under RCP 8.5 since it is a warmer scenario. The soil organic carbon (SOC) content decreased during the baseline period while SOC did not reach equilibrium with the cropping systems considered in the study. SOC decreased during the future periods as well, with rate of change ranging from -146 to -352 kg ha^-1year^-1 depending on AEZ and RCP. Warming increased SOC oxidation in future scenarios, but after an initial increase of SOC losses during the 2030s period, the rate of SOC losses decreased in the 2050s, and more so in the 2070s as SOC and carbon input reached equilibrium with losses. Higher carbon input resulted from higher biomass production under elevated CO₂ scenarios. The total GHG emissions were 1.95, 3.16 and 4.84 Mg CO₂-equivalent ha^-1year^-1 under RCP 4.5, and 1.99, 3.43 and 5.49 Mg CO₂-equivalent ha^-1year^-1 under RCP 8.5 during 2070s in CF, CCF and CC respectively, with N₂O accounting for about 81% of total GHG emissions.

Fertilized graminoids intensify negative drought effects on grassland productivity

Droughts can strongly affect grassland productivity and biodiversity, but responses differ widely. Nutrient availability may be a critical factor explaining this variation, but is often ignored in analyses of drought responses. Here, we used a standardized nutrient addition experiment covering 10 European grasslands to test if full-factorial nitrogen, phosphorus, and potassium addition affected plant community responses to inter-annual variation in drought stress and to the extreme summer drought of 2018 in Europe. We found that nutrient addition amplified detrimental drought effects on community aboveground biomass production. Drought effects also differed between functional groups, with a negative effect on graminoid but not forb biomass production. Our results imply that eutrophication in grasslands, which promotes dominance of drought-sensitive graminoids over forbs, amplifies detrimental drought effects. In terms of climate change adaptation, agricultural management would benefit from taking into account differential drought impacts on fertilized versus unfertilized grasslands, which differ in ecosystem services they provide to society.

Greening of the earth does not compensate for rising soil heterotrophic respiration under climate change

Stability of the soil carbon (C) pool under decadal scale variability in temperature and precipitation is an important source of uncertainty in our understanding of land-atmosphere climate feedbacks. This depends on how two opposing C-fluxes-influx from net primary production (NPP) and efflux from heterotrophic soil respiration (R_h )-respond to covariation in temperature and precipitation. There is scant evidence to judge whether field experiments which manipulate both temperature and precipitation align with Earth System Models, or not. As a result, even though the world is generally greening, whether the resultant gains in NPP can offset climate change impacts on R_h , where, and by how much, remains uncertain. Here, we use decadal-scale global time-series datasets on NPP, R_h , temperature, and precipitation to estimate the two opposing C-fluxes and address whether one can outpace the other. We implement machine-learning tools on recent (2001-2019) and near-future climate scenarios (2020-2040) to assess the response of both C-fluxes to temperature and precipitation variation. We find that changes in C-influx may not compensate for C-efflux, particularly in wetter and warmer conditions. Soil-C loss can occur in both tropics and at high latitudes since C-influx from NPP can fall behind C-efflux from R_h . Precipitation emerges as the key determinant of soil-C vulnerability in a warmer world, implying that hotspots for soil-C loss/gain can shift rapidly and highlighting that soil-C is vulnerable to climate change despite widespread greening of the world. The direction of covariation between change in temperature and precipitation, rather than their magnitude, can help conceptualize highly variable patterns in C-fluxes to guide soil-C stewardship.

Elevated Carbon Dioxide and Chronic Warming Together Decrease Nitrogen Uptake Rate, Net Translocation, and Assimilation in Tomato

The response of plant N relations to the combination of elevated CO₂ (eCO₂) and warming are poorly understood. To study this, tomato (Solanum lycopersicum) plants were grown at 400 or 700 ppm CO₂ and 33/28 or 38/33 °C (day/night), and their soil was labeled with ¹⁵NO₃⁻ or ¹⁵NH₄⁺. Plant dry mass, root N-uptake rate, root-to-shoot net N translocation, whole-plant N assimilation, and root resource availability (%C, %N, total nonstructural carbohydrates) were measured. Relative to eCO₂ or warming alone, eCO₂ + warming decreased growth, NO₃⁻ and NH₄⁺-uptake rates, root-to-shoot net N translocation, and whole-plant N assimilation. Decreased N assimilation with eCO₂ + warming was driven mostly by inhibition of NO₃⁻ assimilation, and was not associated with root resource limitations or damage to N-assimilatory proteins. Previously, we showed in tomato that eCO₂ + warming decreases the concentration of N-uptake and -assimilatory proteins in roots, and dramatically increases leaf angle, which decreases whole-plant light capture and, hence, photosynthesis and growth. Thus, decreases in N uptake and assimilation with eCO₂ + warming in tomato are likely due to reduced plant N demand.

Altered arsenic availability, uptake, and allocation in rice under elevated temperature

Climate change is expected to increase growing temperatures in rice cultivating regions worldwide. Recent research demonstrates that elevated temperature can increase arsenic concentrations in rice tissue, exacerbating an existing threat to rice quality and human health. However, the specific temperature-induced changes in the plant-soil system responsible for increased arsenic concentrations remain unclear and such knowledge is necessary to manage human dietary arsenic exposure in a warmer future. To elucidate these changes, we established four temperature treatments in climate-controlled growth chambers and grew rice plants (Oryza sativa cv. M206) in pots filled with Californian paddy soil with arsenic concentrations of 7.7 mg kg^-1. The four chosen temperatures mimicked IPCC forecasting for Northern California, with a roughly 2.5 °C increase between treatments (nighttime temperatures ~2 °C cooler). We observed that arsenic concentrations in porewater, root iron plaque, and plant tissue increased in response to elevated temperature. There was a positive linear relationship between temperature and rice grain arsenic, almost all of which was present as inorganic As (III). Above-ground allocation patterns were consistent across treatments. We found no upregulation in the gene encoding the OsABCC1 transporter, believed to be important for arsenic sequestration in vacuoles and thereby preventing arsenic transfer to grain. Rice plants grown at higher temperatures had more adsorbed arsenic per unit of iron plaque (measured as [As]/[Fe]), indicating temperature may impact arsenic sorption to root plaque. We present evidence that increased soil mobilization of arsenic was the driving factor responsible for increased arsenic uptake into rice grain. Transpiration, which can increase arsenic transport to roots, was also heightened with elevated temperature but appeared to play a secondary role. Our system had low soil arsenic concentrations typical for California. Our findings highlight that elevated growing temperatures may increase the risk of dietary arsenic exposure in rice systems that were previously considered low risk.

A trade-off between plant and soil carbon storage under elevated CO2

Terrestrial ecosystems remove about 30 per cent of the carbon dioxide (CO₂) emitted by human activities each year¹, yet the persistence of this carbon sink depends partly on how plant biomass and soil organic carbon (SOC) stocks respond to future increases in atmospheric CO₂ (refs. ^2,3). Although plant biomass often increases in elevated CO₂ (eCO₂) experiments^4-6, SOC has been observed to increase, remain unchanged or even decline⁷. The mechanisms that drive this variation across experiments remain poorly understood, creating uncertainty in climate projections^8,9. Here we synthesized data from 108 eCO₂ experiments and found that the effect of eCO₂ on SOC stocks is best explained by a negative relationship with plant biomass: when plant biomass is strongly stimulated by eCO₂, SOC storage declines; conversely, when biomass is weakly stimulated, SOC storage increases. This trade-off appears to be related to plant nutrient acquisition, in which plants increase their biomass by mining the soil for nutrients, which decreases SOC storage. We found that, overall, SOC stocks increase with eCO₂ in grasslands (8 ± 2 per cent) but not in forests (0 ± 2 per cent), even though plant biomass in grasslands increase less (9 ± 3 per cent) than in forests (23 ± 2 per cent). Ecosystem models do not reproduce this trade-off, which implies that projections of SOC may need to be revised.