Population-scale drivers of individual arrival times in migratory birds

Winter-ground microhabitat use by differently coloured phenotypes affects return rate in a long-distance migratory bird

Migratory bird populations are declining globally at alarming rates. Non-breeding site conditions affect breeding populations, but generalising non-breeding habitat conditions over large spatial regions cannot address potential fine-scale differences across landscapes or local populations. Plumage characteristics can mediate the effects of environmental conditions on individual fitness. However, whether different phenotypes use distinctive non-breeding sites, and whether they respond to non-breeding site conditions differently remains largely unknown. Stable isotopes (δ13C, δ15N, δ2H) of inert tissues are useful to infer habitat characteristics and geographic origins where those tissues were grown. We collected winter-grown feathers from pied flycatchers (Ficedula hypoleuca) on their breeding grounds over several years from males whose dorsal plumage colouration ranged continuously from brown to black and assessed their stable isotope values as proxies of local habitat conditions. Based on feather δ2H profiles we found that browner males spent their non-breeding season in drier habitats than black males. Assignment to origin analysis shows potential regional non-breeding ground separation between differently coloured males. High within-individual repeatability of both δ13C and δ15N indicate the pied flycatcher males return yearly to similar areas. Blacker males were more likely to return to the breeding grounds after dry years compared with brown males. The opposite was found in wet years. Our study demonstrates that different phenotypes are exposed to different non-breeding site conditions which can differentially affect individual survivorship. This has important ramifications for population dynamics under predicted climate change scenarios where especially brown phenotype pied flycatcher males may be under a risk of decreasing.

Determinants of spring migration departure dates in a New World sparrow: Weather variables reign supreme

Numerous factors influence the timing of spring migration in birds, yet the relative importance of intrinsic and extrinsic variables on migration initiation remains unclear. To test for interactions among weather, migration distance, parasitism, and physiology in determining spring departure date, we used the Dark-eyed Junco (Junco hyemalis) as a model migratory species known to harbor diverse and common haemosporidian parasites. Prior to spring migration departure from their wintering grounds in Indiana, USA, we quantified the intrinsic variables of fat, body condition (i.e., mass ~ tarsus residuals), physiological stress (i.e., ratio of heterophils to lymphocytes), cellular immunity (i.e., leukocyte composition and total count), migration distance (i.e., distance to the breeding grounds) using stable isotopes of hydrogen from feathers, and haemosporidian parasite intensity. We then attached nanotags to determine the timing of spring migration departure date using the Motus Wildlife Tracking System. We used additive Cox proportional hazard mixed models to test how risk of spring migratory departure was predicted by the combined intrinsic measures, along with meteorological predictors on the evening of departure (i.e., average wind speed and direction, relative humidity, and temperature). Model comparisons found that the best predictor of spring departure date was average nightly wind direction and a principal component combining relative humidity and temperature. Juncos were more likely to depart for spring migration on nights with largely southwestern winds and on warmer and drier evenings (relative to cooler and more humid evenings). Our results indicate that weather conditions at take-off are more critical to departure decisions than the measured physiological and parasitism variables.

Individual repeatability of avian migration phenology: a systematic review and meta-analysis

Changes in phenology and distribution are being widely reported for many migratory species in response to shifting environmental conditions. Understanding these changes and the situations in which they occur can be aided by understanding consistent individual differences in phenology and distribution and the situations in which consistency varies in strength or detectability. Studies tracking the same individuals over consecutive years are increasingly reporting migratory timings to be a repeatable trait, suggesting that flexible individual responses to environmental conditions may contribute little to population-level changes in phenology and distribution. However, how this varies across species and sexes, across the annual cycle and in relation to study (tracking method, study design) and/or ecosystem characteristics is not yet clear. Here, we take advantage of the growing number of publications in movement ecology to perform a phylogenetic multilevel meta-analysis of repeatability estimates for avian migratory timings to investigate these questions. Of 2,433 reviewed studies, 54 contained suitable information for meta-analysis, resulting in 177 effect sizes from 47 species. Individual repeatability of avian migratory timings averaged 0.414 (95% confidence interval: 0.3-0.5) across landbirds, waterbirds and seabirds, suggesting consistent individual differences in migratory timings is a common feature of migratory systems. Timing of departure from the non-breeding grounds was more repeatable than timings of arrival at or departure from breeding grounds, suggesting that conditions encountered on migratory journeys and outcome of breeding attempts can influence individual variation. Population-level shifts in phenology could arise through individual timings changing with environmental conditions and/or through shifts in the numbers of individuals with different timings. Our findings suggest that, in addition to identifying the conditions associated with individual variation in phenology, exploring the causes of between-individual variation will be key in predicting future rates and directions of changes in migratory timings. We therefore encourage researchers to report the within- and between- individual variance components underpinning the reported repeatability estimates to aid interpretation of migration behaviour. In addition, the lack of studies in the tropics means that levels of repeatability in less strongly seasonal environments are not yet clear.

Migration tactics and connectivity of a Nearctic-Neotropical migratory shorebird

During long-distance spring migrations, birds may rest and refuel at numerous stopover sites while minimizing the time to reach the breeding grounds. If habitat is limited along the migration route, pre-breeding birds optimize flight range by having longer stopovers at higher quality sites compared to poorer quality sites. Stopover duration also depends on distance remaining to breeding grounds, ecological barriers, and individual characteristics. We assessed spring migration tactics and connectivity of a Nearctic-Neotropical migratory shorebird, the semipalmated sandpiper (Calidris pusilla), at two sites with known relative habitat quality on the Northern Gulf of Mexico (NGOM) coast, the first land encountered after crossing the Gulf of Mexico (GOM). We used automated radio telemetry (Motus) to estimate stopover duration and probability of departure. Migration speed was estimated for individuals detected at subsequent receivers on the Motus Network. To measure migratory connectivity, we used morphometrics and the Motus network to assign general breeding regions. Additionally, feather stable isotope ratios of C and N provided coarse information about over-wintering regions. Stopover duration declined with higher fuel loads at capture as expected under a time-minimizing strategy. After accounting for fuel load, stopover duration was approximately 40% longer at the higher quality site. We found no detectable effect of age, sex, or breeding location on stopover behavior. Probability of departure was strongly affected by humidity and also by tailwind and weather conditions. Birds stopping at the higher-quality site had earlier apparent arrival to the breeding grounds. The Louisiana coast is an apparent stopover hub for this species, since the individuals were departing to range-wide breeding regions and isotope values suggested birds were also using widespread wintering regions. Our study shows how high-quality, coastal wetlands along the NGOM coast serve a critical role in the annual cycle of a migratory shorebird. Stopover behavior indicated that high quality habitat may be limited for this species during spring migration. As threats to the GOM coast increase, protection of these already limited wetlands is vitally important.

Modelling migration in birds: competition's role in maintaining individual variation

Animals exhibit extensive intraspecific variation in behaviour. Causes of such variation are less well understood. Here, we ask when competition leads to the maintenance of multiple behavioural strategies. We model variability using the timing of bird migration as an example. Birds often vary in when they return from non-breeding grounds to establish breeding territories. We assume that early-arriving birds (counting permanent residents as 'earliest') select the best territories. But arriving before the optimal (frequency-independent) breeding date incurs a fitness penalty. Using simulations, we find stable sets of return dates. When year-round residency is viable, the greatest between-individual variation occurs when a small proportion of permanent residents is favoured, and the rest of the population varies in their return times. However, when fitness losses due to year-round residency exceed the benefits of breeding in the worst territory, all individuals migrate, although their return dates often vary continuously. In that case, individual variation is inversely related to fitness risks and positively related to territory inequality. This result is applicable across many systems: when there is more to gain through competition, or when its risks are small, a diversity of individual strategies prevails. Additionally, stability can depend upon the distribution of resources.

Tracking snowmelt to jump the green wave: phenological drivers of migration in a northern ungulate

In northern climates, spring is a time of rapid environmental change: for migrating terrestrial animals, melting snow facilitates foraging and travel, and newly emergent vegetation provides a valuable nutritional resource. These changes result in selection on the timing of important life-history events such as migration and parturition occurring when high-quality resources are most abundant. We examined the timing of female caribou (Rangifer tarandus, n = 94) migration and parturition in five herds across 7 yr in Newfoundland, Canada, as a function of two measures of environmental change-snowmelt and vegetation green-up. We generated resource selection functions to test whether caribou selected for areas associated with snowmelt and green-up during migration and following calving. We found that caribou migrated approximately 1 wk prior to snowmelt, with the flush of emergent vegetation occurring during the weeks following parturition. The results indicate that caribou "jump" the green wave of emergent forage and do so by tracking the receding edge of melting snow, likely reducing movement and foraging costs related to snow cover. Our research further broadens the ecological scope of resource tracking in animals. We demonstrate that resource tracking extends beyond resources directly related to foraging to those related to movement. We also show that snowmelt provides an environmental cue that may provide a buffer against changing environmental conditions.

Individual variation in migratory behavior in a subarctic partial migrant shorebird

Migratory behavior can differ markedly amongst individuals within populations or species. Understanding the factors influencing this variation is key to understanding how current environmental changes might influence migratory propensity and the distribution and abundance of migratory species across their range. Here, we investigate variation in migratory behavior of the partially migratory Eurasian oystercatcher (Haematopus ostralegus) population breeding in Iceland. We use the resightings of color-ringed adults and stable isotopes to determine whether individuals migrate or remain in Iceland during winter and test whether individual migratory strategies vary in relation to sex, body size, and breeding location. We also explore individual consistency in migratory strategy and test whether assortative mating with respect to strategy occurs in this population. The proportion of migrants and residents varied greatly across breeding locations but not with respect to sex or body size. Individuals were consistent in migratory strategy between years and there was no evidence of assortative mating by migratory strategy. We use these findings to explore factors underlying the evolution and maintenance of partial migration at high latitudes.

Striving for population-level conservation: integrating physiology across the biological hierarchy

The field of conservation physiology strives to achieve conservation goals by revealing physiological mechanisms that drive population declines in the face of human-induced rapid environmental change (HIREC) and has informed many successful conservation actions. However, many studies still struggle to explicitly link individual physiological measures to impacts across the biological hierarchy (to population and ecosystem levels) and instead rely on a 'black box' of assumptions to scale up results for conservation implications. Here, we highlight some examples of studies that were successful in scaling beyond the individual level, including two case studies of well-researched species, and using other studies we highlight challenges and future opportunities to increase the impact of research by scaling up the biological hierarchy. We first examine studies that use individual physiological measures to scale up to population-level impacts and discuss several emerging fields that have made significant steps toward addressing the gap between individual-based and demographic studies, such as macrophysiology and landscape physiology. Next, we examine how future studies can scale from population or species-level to community- and ecosystem-level impacts and discuss avenues of research that can lead to conservation implications at the ecosystem level, such as abiotic gradients and interspecific interactions. In the process, we review methods that researchers can use to make links across the biological hierarchy, including crossing disciplinary boundaries, collaboration and data sharing, spatial modelling and incorporating multiple markers (e.g. physiological, behavioural or demographic) into their research. We recommend future studies incorporating tools that consider the diversity of 'landscapes' experienced by animals at higher levels of the biological hierarchy, will make more effective contributions to conservation and management decisions.

Mechanisms driving phenological and range change in migratory species

Many migratory systems are changing rapidly in space and time, and these changes present challenges for conservation. Changes in local abundance and site occupancy across species' ranges have raised concerns over the efficacy of the existing protected area networks, while changes in phenology can potentially create mismatches in the timing of annual events with the availability of key resources. These changes could arise either through individuals shifting in space and time or through generational shifts in the frequency of individuals using different locations or on differing migratory schedules. Using a long-term study of a migratory shorebird in which individuals have been tracked through a period of range expansion and phenological change, we show that these changes occur through generational shifts in spatial and phenological distributions, and that individuals are highly consistent in space and time. Predictions of future rates of changes in range size and phenology, and their implications for species conservation, will require an understanding of the processes that can drive generational shifts. We therefore explore the developmental, demographic and environmental processes that could influence generational shifts in phenology and distribution, and the studies that will be needed to distinguish among these mechanisms of change.

This article is part of the theme issue ‘Linking behaviour to dynamics of populations and communities: application of novel approaches in behavioural ecology to conservation’.

Linking warming effects on phenology, demography, and range expansion in a migratory bird population

Phenological changes in response to climate change have been recorded in many taxa, but the population-level consequences of these changes are largely unknown. If phenological change influences demography, it may underpin the changes in range size and distribution that have been associated with climate change in many species. Over the last century, Icelandic black-tailed godwits (Limosa limosa islandica) have increased 10-fold in numbers, and their breeding range has expanded throughout lowland Iceland, but the environmental and demographic drivers of this expansion remain unknown. Here, we explore the potential for climate-driven shifts in phenology to influence demography and range expansion. In warmer springs, Icelandic black-tailed godwits lay their clutches earlier, resulting in advances in hatching dates in those years. Early hatching is beneficial as population-wide tracking of marked individuals shows that chick recruitment to the adult population is greater for early hatched individuals. Throughout the last century, this population has expanded into progressively colder breeding areas in which hatch dates are later, but temperatures have increased throughout Iceland since the 1960s. Using these established relationships between temperature, hatching dates and recruitment, we show that these warming trends have the potential to have fueled substantial increases in recruitment throughout Iceland, and thus to have contributed to local population growth and expansion across the breeding range. The demographic consequences of temperature-mediated phenological changes, such as the advances in lay dates and increased recruitment associated with early hatching reported here, may therefore be key processes in driving population size and range changes in response to climate change.

Drone-Based High-Resolution Tracking of Aquatic Vertebrates

Determining the small-scale movement patterns of marine vertebrates usually requires invasive active acoustic tagging or in-water monitoring, with the inherent behavioural impacts of those techniques. In addition, these techniques rarely allow direct continuous behavioural assessments or the recording of environmental interactions, especially for highly mobile species. Here, we trial a novel method of assessing small-scale movement patterns of marine vertebrates using an unmanned aerial vehicle that could complement longer-term tracking approaches. This approach is unlikely to have behavioural impacts and provides high accuracy and high frequency location data (10 Hz), while subsequently allowing quantitative trajectory analysis. Unmanned aerial vehicle tracking is also relatively low cost compared to single-use acoustic and GPS tags. We tracked 14 sharks for up to 10 min in a shallow lagoon of Heron Island, Australia. Trajectory analysis revealed that Epaulette sharks (Hemiscyllium ocellatum) displayed sinusoidal movement patterns, while Blacktip Reef Sharks (Carcharhinus melanopterus) had more linear trajectories that were similar to those of a Lemon shark (Negaprion acutidens). Individual shark trajectory patterns and movement speeds were highly variable. Results indicate that Epaulette sharks may be more mobile during diurnal low tides than previously thought. The approach presented here allows the movements and behaviours of marine vertebrates to be analysed at resolutions not previously possible without complex and expensive acoustic arrays. This method would be useful to assess the habitat use and behaviours of sharks and rays in shallow water environments, where they are most likely to interact with humans.

A long winter for the Red Queen: rethinking the evolution of seasonal migration

This paper advances an hypothesis that the primary adaptive driver of seasonal migration is maintenance of site fidelity to familiar breeding locations. We argue that seasonal migration is therefore principally an adaptation for geographic persistence when confronted with seasonality - analogous to hibernation, freeze tolerance, or other organismal adaptations to cyclically fluctuating environments. These ideas stand in contrast to traditional views that bird migration evolved as an adaptive dispersal strategy for exploiting new breeding areas and avoiding competitors. Our synthesis is supported by a large body of research on avian breeding biology that demonstrates the reproductive benefits of breeding-site fidelity. Conceptualizing migration as an adaptation for persistence places new emphasis on understanding the evolutionary trade-offs between migratory behaviour and other adaptations to fluctuating environments both within and across species. Seasonality-induced departures from breeding areas, coupled with the reproductive benefits of maintaining breeding-site fidelity, also provide a mechanism for explaining the evolution of migration that is agnostic to the geographic origin of migratory lineages (i.e. temperate or tropical). Thus, our framework reconciles much of the conflict in previous research on the historical biogeography of migratory species. Although migratory behaviour and geographic range change fluidly and rapidly in many populations, we argue that the loss of plasticity for migration via canalization is an overlooked aspect of the evolutionary dynamics of migration and helps explain the idiosyncratic distributions and migratory routes of long-distance migrants. Our synthesis, which revolves around the insight that migratory organisms travel long distances simply to stay in the same place, provides a necessary evolutionary context for understanding historical biogeographic patterns in migratory lineages as well as the ecological dynamics of migratory connectivity between breeding and non-breeding locations.

Individual variation, population-specific behaviours and stochastic processes shape marine migration phenologies

The phenology of long-distance migrations can influence individual fitness, moderate population dynamics and regulate the availability of ecosystem services to other trophic levels. Phenology varies within and among populations, and can be influenced by conditions individuals experience both prior to departure and encounter en route. Assessing how intrinsic and extrinsic factors (e.g., individual physical condition vs. environmental conditions) interact to influence variation in migratory phenologies across ecological scales is often limited due to logistical constraints associated with tracking large numbers of individuals from multiple populations simultaneously. We used two natural tags, DNA and otolith microstructure analysis, to estimate the relative influence of individual traits (life-history strategy, body size at departure and growth during migration), population-specific behaviours and interannual variability on the phenology of marine migrations in juvenile sockeye salmon Oncorhynchus nerka. We show that the timing and duration of juvenile sockeye salmon migrations were correlated with both life-history strategy and body size, while migration duration was also correlated with departure timing and growth rates during migration. Even after accounting for the effect of individual traits, several populations exhibited distinct migration phenologies. Finally, we observed substantial interannual and residual variation, suggesting stochastic environmental conditions moderate the influence of carry-over effects that develop prior to departure, as well as population-specific strategies. Migratory phenologies are shaped by complex interactions between drivers acting at multiple ecological and temporal scales. Given evidence that intraspecific diversity can stabilize ecological systems, conservation efforts should seek to maintain migratory variation among populations and preserve locally adapted phenotypes; however, variation within populations, which may buffer systems from environmental stochasticity, should also be regularly assessed and preserved.

Colour change in a structural ornament is related to individual quality, parasites and mating patterns in the blue tit

Carry-over effects refer to processes that occur in one season and influence fitness in the following. In birds, two costly activities, namely reproduction and moult, are restricted to a small time window, and sometimes overlap. Thus, colour in newly moulted feathers is likely to be affected by the costs of reproduction. Using models of bird vision we investigated male colour change in a free-living population of blue tits (Cyanistes caeruleus) in three sampling occasions: spring 1, winter and spring 2. We related crown, tail, breast and cheek feather colouration after the moult (winter) to the intensity of infections by blood parasites during reproduction (spring 1). In the following spring (spring 2), we explored mating patterns with respect to changes in feather colour (springs 1 vs. 2). Males that were less intensely infected by the malaria parasite Plasmodium while breeding showed purer white cheek feathers in winter, which may indicate higher feather quality. Increased brightness in the white cheek was associated with better body condition during reproduction. In the following season, males with brighter cheeks paired with females that had noticeably brighter cheek patches compared to the male's previous mate. These results suggest that the conditions experienced during reproduction are likely to affect moult and thus feather colouration, at least in the white patch. High quality individuals may allocate resources efficiently during reproduction increasing future reproductive success through variation in mating patterns. Carry-over effects from reproduction might extend not only to the non-breeding phase, but also to the following breeding season.

Stay-at-home strategy brings fitness benefits to migrants

In Focus: Lok, T., Veldhoen, L., Overdijk, O., Tinbergen, J. M., & Piersma, T. (2017). An age-dependent fitness cost of migration? Old trans-Saharan migrating spoonbills breed later than those staying in Europe, and late breeders have lower recruitment. Journal of Animal Ecology, 86, 998-1009. In Focus: Grist, H., Daunt, F., Wanless, S., Burthe, S. J., Newell, M. A., Harris, M. P., & Reid, J. M. (2017). Reproductive performance of resident and migrant males, females and pairs in a partially migratory bird. Journal of Animal Ecology, 86, 1010-1021. In this issue, two studies examine the extent to which variation in migratory behaviour influences individual fitness across a population. Lok, Veldhoen, Overdijk, Tinbergen, and Piersma () examine reproductive success and post-fledging survival in a population of Eurasian spoonbills (Platalea leucorodia), comparing individuals that winter in south-west Europe against those migrating to sub-Saharan Africa, while Grist et al. () measure reproductive success in a population of European shags (Phalacrocorax aristotelis) breeding in Scotland that either remain resident or migrate to surrounding waters. Both studies find that individuals migrating longer distances tend to show later initiation of breeding attempts. In turn, longer migration correlates with lower reproductive success in both populations. In spoonbills, this effect is most pronounced in older male birds, while young individuals show little difference in breeding success with respect to migration distance. In shags, fitness benefits of residence were most pronounced when both individuals of a pair were resident, although there was no evidence of assortative mating. Both studies provide fascinating new insights into the role migratory variability can play in shaping population dynamics.

Population-level body condition correlates with productivity in an arctic wader, the dunlin Calidris alpina, during post-breeding migration

Weather and predation constitute the two main factors affecting the breeding success of those Arctic waders whose productivity is highly variable over the years. We tested whether reproductive success is associated with the post-breeding condition of adults, in which in ‘good’ years (with warm weather, plentiful food and low predation pressure) the condition of breeders and their productivity is high. To verify this hypothesis, we used a 10-year dataset comprising 20,792 dunlins Calidris alpina, trapped during migration at a stopover site on the southern Baltic Sea shore. Males were consistently in a slightly worse condition than females, likely due to male-biased parental investment in brood rearing. Annual productivity indices were positively correlated with the respective condition indices of breeders from the Eurasian Arctic, indicating that in ‘good’ years, despite great effort spent on reproduction, breeders leave the breeding grounds in better condition. The pattern did not hold for 1992: productivity was low, but the average condition of adults during migration was the highest noted over the decade. We suggest that the delayed effect of the Mount Pinatubo eruption in the Philippines in 1991, could be responsible for the unexpected high condition of Arctic breeders in 1992. High population-level average condition, coupled with the low productivity could stem from severe weather caused by the volcano eruption a year before and strong predation pressure, which in turn lead to a reduced investment in reproduction. The importance of large-scale episodic phenomena, like this volcano eruption, may blur the statistical associations of wildlife with local environmental drivers.

An age-dependent fitness cost of migration? Old trans-Saharan migrating spoonbills breed later than those staying in Europe, and late breeders have lower recruitment

Migration is a widespread phenomenon in the animal kingdom. On the basis of the considerable variation that exists between and within species, and even within populations, we may be able to infer the (age- and sex-specific) ecological trade-offs and constraints moulding migration systems from assessments of fitness associated with migration and wintering in different areas. During three consecutive breeding seasons, we compared the reproductive performance (timing of breeding, breeding success, chick body condition and post-fledging survival) of Eurasian spoonbills Platalea leucorodia that breed at a single breeding site in The Netherlands, but migrate different distances (c. 4,500 vs. 2,000 km, either or not crossing the Sahara) to and from wintering areas in southern Europe and West Africa. Using mark-recapture analysis, we further investigated whether survival until adulthood (recruitment probability) of chicks hatched between 2006 and 2010 was related to their hatch date and body condition. Long-distance migrants bred later, particularly the males, and raised chicks of poorer body condition than short-distance migrants. Hatch dates strongly advanced with increasing age in short-distance migrants, but hardly advanced in long-distance migrants, causing the difference in timing of breeding between long- and short-distance migrants to be more pronounced among older birds. Breeding success and chick body condition decreased over the season, and chicks that fledged late in the season or in poor condition were less likely to survive until adulthood. As a result, long-distance migrants-particularly the males and older birds-likely recruit fewer offspring into the breeding population than short-distance migrants. This inference is important for predicting the population-level consequences of changes in winter habitat suitability throughout the wintering range. Assuming that the long-distance migrants-being the birds that occupy the traditional wintering areas-are not the poorer quality birds, and that the observed age-dependent patterns in timing of breeding are driven by within-individual effects and not by selective disappearance, our results suggest that the strategy of long-distance migration, involving the crossing of the Sahara to winter in West Africa, incurred a cost by reducing reproductive output, albeit a cost paid only later in life.

Does wintering north or south of the Sahara correlate with timing and breeding performance in black-tailed godwits?

Migrating long distances requires time and energy, and may interact with an individual's performance during breeding. These seasonal interactions in migratory animals are best described in populations with disjunct nonbreeding distributions. The black‐tailed godwit (Limosa limosa limosa), which breeds in agricultural grasslands in Western Europe, has such a disjunct nonbreeding distribution: The majority spend the nonbreeding season in West Africa, while a growing number winters north of the Sahara on the Iberian Peninsula. To test whether crossing the Sahara has an effect on breeding season phenology and reproductive parameters, we examined differences in the timing of arrival, breeding habitat quality, lay date, egg volume, and daily nest survival among godwits (154 females and 157 males), individually marked in a breeding area in the Netherlands for which wintering destination was known on the basis of resightings. We also examined whether individual repeatability in arrival date differed between birds wintering north or south of the Sahara. Contrary to expectation, godwits wintering south of the Sahara arrived two days earlier and initiated their clutch six days earlier than godwits wintering north of the Sahara. Arrival date was equally repeatable for both groups, and egg volume larger in birds wintering north of the Sahara. Despite these differences, we found no association between wintering location and the quality of breeding habitat or nest survival. This suggests that the crossing of an important ecological barrier and doubling of the migration distance, twice a year, do not have clear negative reproductive consequences for some long‐distance migrants.

Carry-over effects on the annual cycle of a migratory seabird: an experimental study

Long‐lived migratory animals must balance the cost of current reproduction with their own condition ahead of a challenging migration and future reproduction. In these species, carry‐over effects, which occur when events in one season affect the outcome of the subsequent season, may be particularly exacerbated. However, how carry‐over effects influence future breeding outcomes and whether (and how) they also affect behaviour during migration and wintering is unclear.

Here we investigate carry‐over effects induced by a controlled, bidirectional manipulation of the duration of reproductive effort on the migratory, wintering and subsequent breeding behaviour of a long‐lived migratory seabird, the Manx shearwater Puffinus puffinus. By cross‐fostering chicks of different age between nests, we successfully prolonged or shortened by ∼25% the chick‐rearing period of 42 breeding pairs. We tracked the adults with geolocators over the subsequent year and combined migration route data with at‐sea activity budgets obtained from high‐resolution saltwater‐immersion data. Migratory behaviour was also recorded during non‐experimental years (the year before and/or two years after manipulation) for a subset of birds, allowing comparison between experimental and non‐experimental years within treatment groups.

All birds cared for chicks until normal fledging age, resulting in birds with a longer breeding period delaying their departure on migration; however, birds that finished breeding earlier did not start migrating earlier. Increased reproductive effort resulted in less time spent at the wintering grounds, a reduction in time spent resting daily and a delayed start of breeding with lighter eggs and chicks and lower breeding success the following breeding season. Conversely, reduced reproductive effort resulted in more time resting and less time foraging during the winter, but a similar breeding phenology and success compared with control birds the following year, suggesting that ‘positive’ carry‐over effects may also occur but perhaps have a less long‐lasting impact than those incurred from increased reproductive effort.

Our results shed light on how carry‐over effects can develop and modify an adult animal's behaviour year‐round and reveal how a complex interaction between current and future reproductive fitness, individual condition and external constraints can influence life‐history decisions.

An ontogenetic perspective on individual differences

Phenotypic differences among individuals can arise during any stage of life. Although several distinct processes underlying individual differences have been defined and studied (e.g. parental effects, senescence), we lack an explicit, unified perspective for understanding how these processes contribute separately and synergistically to observed variation in functional traits. We propose a conceptual framework based on a developmental view of life-history variation, linking each ontogenetic stage with the types of individual differences originating during that period. In our view, the salient differences among these types are encapsulated by three key criteria: timing of onset, when fitness consequences are realized, and potential for reversibility. To fill a critical gap in this framework, we formulate a new term to refer to individual differences generated during adulthood-reversible state effects. We define these as 'reversible changes in a functional trait resulting from life-history trade-offs during adulthood that affect fitness', highlighting how the adult phenotype can be repeatedly altered in response to environmental variation. Defining individual differences in terms of trade-offs allows explicit predictions regarding when and where fitness consequences should be expected. Moreover, viewing individual differences in a developmental context highlights how different processes can work in concert to shape phenotype and fitness, and lays a foundation for research linking individual differences to ecological and evolutionary theory.

Morphometrics and stable isotopes differentiate wintering populations of a migratory bird

BACKGROUND

Describing migratory connectivity in mobile animals is crucial for understanding the selective pressures acting on different populations throughout their life cycle. Tracking single individuals has provided valuable data, but for most species the data available are still spurious and usually limited to a few individuals. Since different populations of migratory birds can be distinguished by a combination of morphometric measurements and the isotopic composition of their feathers, it is possible to measure these parameters on a large sample to differentiate populations.

METHODS

We studied northern wheatears, Oenanthe oenanthe, captured in their African wintering range and applied discriminant analyses on morphometric measurements and stable isotope signatures to determine whether birds found in different areas were distinguishable from each other.

RESULTS

Morphometric and isotopic measurements alone were not sufficient to discriminate between the birds of ssp. oenanthe from different areas in Africa. When combining the two measurements, however, assignment to the different groups became substantially more accurate. Following the discriminant analysis of morphometrics and δ(2)H, δ(13)C, and δ(15)N isotopes signatures, 19 of 20 oenanthe from Kenya, 15 of 20 oenanthe from Mali/Mauritania, and 19 of 20 oenanthe from Niger were assigned correctly to their wintering area.

CONCLUSIONS

Our results show that birds at different wintering sites can be distinguished from each other when using a combination of markers. We discuss the possible breeding origins of these wintering birds.

The fall and rise of the Icelandic Arctic fox (Vulpes lagopus): a 50-year demographic study on a non-cyclic Arctic fox population

In territorial species, observed density dependence is often manifest in lowered reproductive output at high population density where individuals have fewer resources or are forced to inhabit low-quality territories. The Arctic fox (Vulpes lagopus) in Iceland is territorial throughout the year and feeds mostly on birds, since lemmings are absent from the country. Thus, the population does not exhibit short-term population cycles that are evident in most of the species' geographical range. The population has, however, gone through a major long-term fluctuation in population size. Because of the stability in hunting effort and reliable hunting records since 1958, the total number of adult foxes killed annually can be used as an index of population size (N t ). An index of carrying capacity (K) from population growth data for five separate time blocks during 1958-2007 revealed considerable variation in K and allowed a novel definition of population density in terms of K, or N t /K. Correlation analysis suggested that the reproductive rate was largely determined by the proportion of territorial foxes in the population. Variation in litter size and cub mortality was, on the other hand, related to climatic variation. Thus, Arctic foxes in Iceland engage in typical contest competition but can adapt their territory sizes in response to both temporal and spatial variation in carrying capacity, resulting in surprisingly little variation in litter size.

The cost of migration: spoonbills suffer higher mortality during trans-Saharan spring migrations only

Explanations for the wide variety of seasonal migration patterns of animals all carry the assumption that migration is costly and that this cost increases with migration distance. Although in some studies, the relationships between migration distance and breeding success or annual survival are established, none has investigated whether mortality during the actual migration increases with migration distance. Here, we compared seasonal survival between Eurasian spoonbills (Platalea leucorodia leucorodia) that breed in The Netherlands and migrate different distances (ca 1000, 2000 and 4500 km) to winter in France, Iberia and Mauritania, respectively. On the basis of resightings of individually marked birds throughout the year between 2005 and 2012, we show that summer, autumn and winter survival were very high and independent of migration distance, whereas mortality during spring migration was much higher (18%) for the birds that wintered in Mauritania, compared with those flying only as far as France (5%) or Iberia (6%). As such, this study is the first to show empirical evidence for increased mortality during some long migrations, likely driven by the presence of a physical barrier (the Sahara desert) in combination with suboptimal fuelling and unfavourable weather conditions en route.

Causes and consequences of repeatability, flexibility and individual fine-tuning of migratory timing in pike

Many organisms undertake migrations between foraging and breeding habitats and while it is assumed that reproductive timing affects fitness, little is known about the degree of individual consistency, and about the causes and consequences of individual variation in migratory timing in organisms other than birds. Here, we report on a 6-year mark-recapture study, including 2048 individuals, of breeding migration in anadromous pike (Esox lucius), an iteroparous top-predatory fish that displays homing behaviour. By repeated sampling across years at a breeding site, we first quantify individual variation both within and between breeding events and then investigate phenotypic correlates and fitness consequences of arrival timing to the breeding site. Our data demonstrate that males arrive before females, that large males arrive later than small males, that the timing of breeding migration varies among years and that individuals are consistent in their timing across years relative to other individuals in the population. Furthermore, data on return rates indicate that arrival time is under stabilizing viability selection, and that individuals who are more flexible in their timing of arrival during the first reproductive years survive longer compared with less flexible individuals. Finally, longitudinal data demonstrate that individuals consistently fine-tune their arrival timing across years, showing that the timing of arrival to breeding sites is influenced by experience. These findings represent rare evidence of how between- and within-individual variations in migratory timing across breeding events are correlated with phenotypic and fitness traits in an ecologically important keystone species. Our results emphasize the importance of considering variation in migratory timing both between and within individuals in studies investigating the fitness consequences of migratory behaviour and have implications for future management.

Natural selection for earlier male arrival to breeding grounds through direct and indirect effects in a migratory songbird

For migratory birds, the earlier arrival of males to breeding grounds is often expected to have fitness benefits. However, the selection differential on male arrival time has rarely been decomposed into the direct effect of male arrival and potential indirect effects through female traits. We measured the directional selection differential on male arrival time in the pied flycatcher (Ficedula hypoleuca) using data from 6 years and annual number of fledglings as the fitness proxy. Using structural equation modeling, we were able to take into account the temporal structure of the breeding cycle and the hierarchy between the examined traits. We found directional selection differentials for earlier male arrival date and earlier female laying date, as well as strong selection differential for larger clutch size. These selection differentials were due to direct selection only as indirect selection for these traits was nonsignificant. When decomposing the direct selection for earlier male arrival into direct and indirect effects, we discovered that it was almost exclusively due to the direct effect of male arrival date on fitness and not due to its indirect effects via female traits. In other words, we showed for the first time that there is a direct effect of male arrival date on fitness while accounting for those effects that are mediated by effects of the social partner. Our study thus indicates that natural selection directly favored earlier male arrival in this flycatcher population.

Optimal management of a multispecies shorebird flyway under sea-level rise

Every year, millions of migratory shorebirds fly through the East Asian-Australasian Flyway between their arctic breeding grounds and Australasia. This flyway includes numerous coastal wetlands in Asia and the Pacific that are used as stopover sites where birds rest and feed. Loss of a few important stopover sites through sea-level rise (SLR) could cause sudden population declines. We formulated and solved mathematically the problem of how to identify the most important stopover sites to minimize losses of bird populations across flyways by conserving land that facilitates upshore shifts of tidal flats in response to SLR. To guide conservation investment that minimizes losses of migratory bird populations during migration, we developed a spatially explicit flyway model coupled with a maximum flow algorithm. Migratory routes of 10 shorebird taxa were modeled in a graph theoretic framework by representing clusters of important wetlands as nodes and the number of birds flying between 2 nodes as edges. We also evaluated several resource allocation algorithms that required only partial information on flyway connectivity (node strategy, based on the impacts of SLR at nodes; habitat strategy, based on habitat change at sites; population strategy, based on population change at sites; and random investment). The resource allocation algorithms based on flyway information performed on average 15% better than simpler allocations based on patterns of habitat loss or local bird counts. The Yellow Sea region stood out as the most important priority for effective conservation of migratory shorebirds, but investment in this area alone will not ensure the persistence of species across the flyway. The spatial distribution of conservation investments differed enormously according to the severity of SLR and whether information about flyway connectivity was used to guide the prioritizations. With the rapid ongoing loss of coastal wetlands globally, our method provides insight into efficient conservation planning for migratory species.

Site fidelity and individual variation in winter location in partially migratory European shags

In partially migratory populations, individuals from a single breeding area experience a range of environments during the non-breeding season. If individuals show high within- and among- year fidelity to specific locations, any annual environmental effect on individual life histories could be reinforced, causing substantial demographic heterogeneity. Quantifying within- and among- individual variation and repeatability in non-breeding season location is therefore key to predicting broad-scale environmental impacts on the dynamics of partially migratory populations. We used field resightings of colour-ringed adult European shags known to have bred on the Isle of May, Scotland, to quantify individual variation and repeatability in winter location within and among three consecutive winters. In total, 3797 resightings of 882 individuals were recorded over 622 km of coastline, including the Isle of May. These individuals comprised over 50% of the known breeding population, and encompassed representative distributions of ages and sexes. The distances from the Isle of May at which individuals were resighted during winter varied substantially, up to 486 km and 136 km north and south respectively and including the breeding colony on the Isle of May. However, resighting distances were highly repeatable within individuals; within- and among-winter repeatabilities were >0.72 and >0.59 respectively across the full September-March observation period, and >0.95 and >0.79 respectively across more restricted mid-winter periods. Repeatability did not differ significantly between males and females or among different age classes, either within or among winters. These data demonstrate that the focal shag population is partially migratory, and moreover that individuals show highly repeatable variation in winter location and hence migration strategy across consecutive winters. Such high among-individual variation and within-individual repeatability, both within and among winters, could lead to substantial life history variation, and therefore influence population dynamics and future conservation management strategies.

Individual quality explains association between plumage colouration, arrival dates and mate acquisition in yellow warblers (Setophaga petechia)

Background

In many bird species colour traits influence social dominance and breeding success. In our study we first evaluated whether the colour of the basic plumage (tail feathers grown at the end of the breeding season), that provides an index of individual quality, influenced winter habitat use by yellow warblers. We then evaluated whether winter habitat use (inferred using δ¹³C and δ¹⁵N signatures of winter grown greater-coverts) influenced alternate plumage colouration, after controlling for individual quality using basic plumage colouration. Finally, we investigated whether basic and alternate plumage colouration influenced arrival dates, mate acquisition, breeding phenology and reproductive success of yellow warblers breeding in southern (Revelstoke, B.C.) and arctic (Inuvik, N.W.T.) Canada.

Results

The colour (chroma and hue) of tail feathers, grown on the breeding grounds, was not related to subsequent winter habitat use. Greater covert and tail feather colour (chroma and hue) were correlated, suggesting genetics and/or individual quality played a role in pigment deposition. After controlling for individual difference in tail colour, δ¹³C values did not explain any variation in greater covert colour, but birds with high δ¹⁵N signatures had greater coverts with higher chroma. Male arrival dates varied with tail chroma in Revelstoke and tail hue in Inuvik. Males that arrived early paired with older and/or more colourful mates that initiated clutches earlier, and at one site (Revelstoke) were more likely to fledge young. In addition, in Revelstoke (but not Inuvik) males with high tail hue also acquired more colourful mates. In contrast, after controlling for individual differences in tail colour, greater covert colour did not affect male arrival date, the quality of the mate obtained or reproductive success in either population.

Conclusions

Our results suggest that plumage colour effects on breeding phenology and mate acquisition result from differences in the intrinsic quality of individuals rather than a carry-over effect of winter habitat use.

Why is timing of bird migration advancing when individuals are not?

Recent advances in spring arrival dates have been reported in many migratory species but the mechanism driving these advances is unknown. As population declines are most widely reported in species that are not advancing migration, there is an urgent need to identify the mechanisms facilitating and constraining these advances. Individual plasticity in timing of migration in response to changing climatic conditions is commonly proposed to drive these advances but plasticity in individual migratory timings is rarely observed. For a shorebird population that has significantly advanced migration in recent decades, we show that individual arrival dates are highly consistent between years, but that the arrival dates of new recruits to the population are significantly earlier now than in previous years. Several mechanisms could drive advances in recruit arrival, none of which require individual plasticity or rapid evolution of migration timings. In particular, advances in nest-laying dates could result in advanced recruit arrival, if benefits of early hatching facilitate early subsequent spring migration. This mechanism could also explain why arrival dates of short-distance migrants, which generally return to breeding sites earlier and have greater scope for advance laying, are advancing more rapidly than long-distance migrants.

Experimental and observational studies of seasonal interactions between overlapping life history stages in a migratory bird

Prior to reproduction, migratory animals are at the juxtaposition of three life history stages in which they must finish the non-breeding stage, initiate and complete migration, and prepare for the onset of breeding. However, how these stages interact with one another is not fully understood. We provide evidence that, for migratory birds that begin breeding development prior to departure from non-breeding sites, the level of breeding preparation can drive migration phenology, a critical behavioral determinant of reproductive success. Specifically, male American redstart (Setophaga ruticilla) plasma androgen levels, which increase in males during the period leading into migration, were positively correlated with energetic condition. We empirically tested the hypothesis that elevated androgen simultaneously supports migratory and breeding preparation in a hormone manipulation field experiment. Males with testosterone implants showed advanced preparation for migration and breeding, and ultimately departed on migration earlier than controls. It is assumed that early departure leads to early arrival at breeding areas, which increases breeding success. Collectively, our observational and experimental results demonstrate how overlapping life history stages can interact to influence important components of an individual's fitness. This highlights the critical need for understanding population processes across the full life cycle of an organism to better understand the ecological and evolutionary origins of complex life history events.

Relationships between Long-Term Demography and Weather in a Sub-Arctic Population of Common Eider

Effects of local weather on individuals and populations are key drivers of wildlife responses to climatic changes. However, studies often do not last long enough to identify weather conditions that influence demographic processes, or to capture rare but extreme weather events at appropriate scales. In Iceland, farmers collect nest down of wild common eider Somateria mollissima and many farmers count nests within colonies annually, which reflects annual variation in the number of breeding females. We collated these data for 17 colonies. Synchrony in breeding numbers was generally low between colonies. We evaluated 1) demographic relationships with weather in nesting colonies of common eider across Iceland during 1900–2007; and 2) impacts of episodic weather events (aberrantly cold seasons or years) on subsequent breeding numbers. Except for episodic events, breeding numbers within a colony generally had no relationship to local weather conditions in the preceding year. However, common eider are sexually mature at 2–3 years of age and we found a 3-year time lag between summer weather and breeding numbers for three colonies, indicating a positive effect of higher pressure, drier summers for one colony, and a negative effect of warmer, calmer summers for two colonies. These findings may represent weather effects on duckling production and subsequent recruitment. Weather effects were mostly limited to a few aberrant years causing reductions in breeding numbers, i.e. declines in several colonies followed severe winters (1918) and some years with high NAO (1992, 1995). In terms of life history, adult survival generally is high and stable and probably only markedly affected by inclement weather or aberrantly bad years. Conversely, breeding propensity of adults and duckling production probably do respond more to annual weather variations; i.e. unfavorable winter conditions for adults increase probability of death or skipped breeding, whereas favorable summers can promote boom years for recruitment.

Costs, benefits, and fitness consequences of different migratory strategies

The relative fitness of individuals across a population can shape distributions and drive population growth rates. Migratory species often winter over large geographic ranges, and individuals in different locations experience very different environmental conditions, including different migration costs, which can potentially create fitness inequalities. Here we used energetics models to quantify the trade-offs experienced by a migratory shorebird species at locations throughout the nonbreeding range, and the associated consequences for migratory performance, survival, and breeding habitat quality. Individuals experiencing more favorable winter conditions had higher survival rates, arrived on the breeding grounds earlier, and occupied better quality breeding areas, even when migration costs are substantially higher, than individuals from locations where the energy balance on the wintering grounds was less favorable. The energy costs and benefits of occupying different winter locations can therefore create fitness inequalities which can shape the distribution and population-wide demography of migratory species.

Sex-biases in distribution and resource use at different spatial scales in a migratory shorebird

In migratory species, sexual size dimorphism can mean differing energetic requirements for males and females. Differences in the costs of migration and in the environmental conditions occurring throughout the range may therefore result in sex-biases in distribution and resource use at different spatial scales. In order to identify the scale at which sexual segregation operates, and thus the scale at which environmental changes may have sex-biased impacts, we use range-wide tracking of individually color-ringed Icelandic black-tailed godwits (Limosa limosa islandica) to quantify sexual segregation at scales ranging from the occupation of sites throughout the non-breeding range to within-site differences in distribution and resource use. Throughout the range of this migratory shorebird, there is no evidence of large-scale sex differences in distribution during the non-breeding season. However, the sexes differ in their selection of prey types and sizes, which results in small-scale sexual segregation within estuaries. The scale of sexual segregation therefore depends on the scale of variation in resource distribution, which, in this system, is primarily within estuaries. Sexual segregation in within-site distribution and resource use means that local-scale anthropogenic impacts on estuarine benthic prey communities may disproportionately affect the sexes in these migratory shorebirds.

Winter rainfall predicts phenology in widely separated populations of a migrant songbird

Climate change is affecting behaviour and phenology in many animals. In migratory birds, weather patterns both at breeding and at non-breeding sites can influence the timing of spring migration and breeding. However, variation in responses to weather across a species range has rarely been studied, particularly among populations that may winter in different locations. We used prior knowledge of migratory connectivity to test the influence of weather from predicted non-breeding sites on bird phenology in two breeding populations of a long-distance migratory bird species separated by 3,000 km. We found that winter rainfall showed similar associations with arrival and egg-laying dates in separate breeding populations on an east-west axis: greater rainfall in Jamaica and eastern Mexico was generally associated with advanced American redstart (Setophaga ruticilla) phenology in Ontario and Alberta, respectively. In Ontario, these patterns of response could largely be explained by changes in the behaviour of individual birds, i.e., phenotypic plasticity. By explicitly incorporating migratory connectivity into responses to climate, our data suggest that widely separated breeding populations can show independent and geographically specific associations with changing weather conditions. The tendency of individuals to delay migration and breeding following dry winters could result in population declines due to predicted drying trends in tropical areas and the tight linkage between early arrival/breeding and reproductive success in long-distance migrants.

Rapid changes in phenotype distribution during range expansion in a migratory bird

The capacity of species to track changing environmental conditions is a key component of population and range changes in response to environmental change. High levels of local adaptation may constrain expansion into new locations, while the relative fitness of dispersing individuals will influence subsequent population growth. However, opportunities to explore such processes are rare, particularly at scales relevant to species-based conservation strategies. Icelandic black-tailed godwits, Limosa limosa islandica, have expanded their range throughout Iceland over the last century. We show that current male morphology varies strongly in relation to the timing of colonization across Iceland, with small males being absent from recently occupied areas. Smaller males are also proportionately more abundant on habitats and sites with higher breeding success and relative abundance of females. This population-wide spatial structuring of male morphology is most likely to result from female preferences for small males and better-quality habitats increasing both small-male fitness and the dispersal probability of larger males into poorer-quality habitats. Such eco-evolutionary feedbacks may be a key driver of rates of population growth and range expansion and contraction.

Early elevation of testosterone advances migratory preparation in a songbird

The timing of events associated with spring migration can be an important determinant of fitness for migratory birds. The need to prepare and maintain physical condition for migration is one demand that must be met for early arrival on breeding areas, and this demand is compounded by the energetic demands of the physiological transition to breeding. Here, we examined whether migratory birds, specifically males, can adequately meet both of these demands by elevating the sex steroid testosterone early during migratory preparation. To test this, we used a captive experiment in which we photostimulated male dark-eyed juncos (Junco hyemalis) and manipulated circulating testosterone. We predicted males with elevated testosterone would prepare to migrate and breed faster than control males or males where the ability of testosterone to bind with receptors, or be converted to estradiol, was inhibited (testosterone inhibited). We measured migratory preparation using mass, food intake, fat deposits and nocturnal activity (Zugunruhe). To estimate breeding preparation, we measured the diameter of the cloacal protuberance (CP). We found that males in the testosterone treatment group began migratory preparation approximately 10 days before controls. There was no difference in the magnitude of peak migratory condition between testosterone-implanted birds and controls. Males implanted with testosterone also reached the onset of breeding preparation faster and had larger peak CP diameter compared with controls. Testosterone-inhibited birds showed no signs of migratory preparation and only a weak increase in CP diameter. These results demonstrate that early elevation of testosterone during migratory preparation could incur benefits for males in terms of the ability to depart earlier from non-breeding areas and arrive in a more advanced breeding condition. This experiment demonstrates that there may be important physiological underpinnings to known winter to breeding season carry-over effects in migratory birds.

Cues and the optimal timing of activities under environmental changes

Organisms time activities by using environmental cues to forecast the future availability of important resources. Presently, there is limited understanding of the relationships between cues and optimal timing, and especially about how this relationship will be affected by environmental changes. We develop a general model to explore the relation between a cue and the optimal timing of an important life history activity. The model quantifies the fitness loss for organisms failing to time behaviours optimally. We decompose the immediate change in fitness resulting from environmental changes into a component that is due to changes in the predictive power of the cue and a component that derives from the mismatch of the old response to the cue to the new environmental conditions. Our results show that consequences may range from negative, neutral to positive and are highly dependent on how cue and optimal timing and their relation are specifically affected by environmental changes.