Recruitment and survival of immature seabirds in relation to oil spills and climate variability

Impacts of offshore oil spill accidents on island bird communities: A test run study around Orkney and Svalbard archipelagos

The sea area around the Orkney archipelago, Scotland is subjected to substantial maritime shipping activities. By contract, the Svalbard archipelago, Norway currently has a rather low marine traffic profile. Future projections, however, indicate that the Trans-Arctic route might change the whole transportation picture and Svalbard may be at the centre of maritime activities. Both archipelagos have sensitive environmental resources at sea and inland, including bird communities. There are, for instance, 13 Red Listed species present in Orkney and 2 in Svalbard. In this regard, it is important to address oil spill risks along existing and projected shipping routes. Hypothetical spills were simulated in twelve scenarios for both the Orkney and Svalbard archipelagos with the OpenDrift open-source software. The results indicate risks to seabird communities. For Orkney, the spills resulted in the most extensive contamination of the sea and land environments in autumn. For Svalbard, autumn spills on the contrary presented the lowest risk to seabirds. Based on the simulations, we recommend increased caution for shipping activities in the problematic seasons, improved local readiness for ship accidents and sufficient pre-incident planning.

Climatic Effects on Grey-Faced Petrel (Pterodroma gouldi) Chick Growth and Survival

Grey-faced Petrels (Pterodroma gouldi) are a colonial burrowing seabird predominantly nesting on offshore islands of the upper North Island of New Zealand. We studied their annual breeding biology and the impact of Southern Oscillation Index climatic effects by measuring colony productivity and chick growth rates from 2011 to 2015 on Te Hāwere-a-Maki as unfavorable warmer La Niña conditions changed to favorable cooler El Niño conditions. Across all five years, annual chick hatching consistently occurred within a one-week period at the end of August but fledging variably occurred over a three-week period following Christmas. Because ship rats are pest controlled on Te Hāwere-a-Maki, we found only a slight reduction in breeding success with nearby predator-free islands. However, chick growth and fledging rates were significantly higher under El Niño conditions occurring towards the end of our study, rather than La Niña conditions at the start of our study. Our regular handling of chicks for monitoring had no discernible impact compared to a set of control chicks. The combined impacts of annual variation in predation and climate mean the Grey-faced Petrel colony on Te Hāwere-a-Maki maintains a constant population size of around 100 burrows.

Can attraction to and competition for high-quality habitats shape breeding propensity?

In many animal species, sexually mature individuals may skip breeding opportunities despite a likely negative impact on fitness. In spatio‐temporally heterogeneous environments, habitat selection theory predicts that individuals select habitats where fitness prospects are maximized. Individuals are attracted to high‐quality habitat patches where they compete for high‐quality breeding sites. Since failures in contests to secure a site may prevent individuals from breeding, we hypothesized that attraction to and competition for high‐quality habitats could shape breeding propensity.

Under this hypothesis, we predicted the two following associations between breeding propensity and two key population features. (1) When mean habitat quality in the population increases in multiple patches such that availability of high‐quality sites increases across the population, the resulting decrease in competition should positively affect breeding propensity. (2) When the number of individuals increases in the population, the resulting increase in competitors should negatively affect breeding propensity (negative density dependence).

Using long‐term data from kittiwakes Rissa tridactyla, we checked the prerequisite of prediction (1), that availability of high‐quality sites is positively associated with current mean habitat quality in the population (represented by breeding success). We then applied integrated population modelling to quantify annual fluctuations in population mean breeding success, breeding propensity and number of individuals by breeding status (pre‐breeders, breeders, skippers and immigrants), and tested our predictions.

Our results showed that breeding propensity acts as an important driver of population growth. As expected, breeding propensity was positively associated with preceding mean habitat quality in the population, and negatively with the number of competitors. These relationships varied depending on breeding status, which likely reflects status dependence in competitive ability.

These findings highlight the importance of competition for high‐quality breeding sites in shaping breeding propensity. Thereby, we draw attention towards alternative and complementary explanations to more standard considerations regarding the energetic cost of reproduction, and point to possible side effects of habitat selection behaviours on individual life histories and population dynamics.

Antibacterial and anatomical defenses in an oil contaminated, vulnerable seaduck

Oil spills have killed thousands of birds during the last 100 years, but nonlethal effects of oil spills on birds remain poorly studied. We measured phenotype characters in 819 eiders Somateria mollissima (279 whole birds and 540 wings) of which 13.6% were oiled. We tested the hypotheses that (a) the morphology of eiders does not change due to oil contamination; (b) the anatomy of organs reflects the physiological reaction to contamination, for example, increase in metabolic demand, increase in food intake, and counteracting toxic effects of oil; (c) large locomotion apparatus that facilitates locomotion increases the risk of getting oiled; and (d) individual eiders with a higher production of secretions from the uropygial grand were more likely to have oil on their plumage. We tested whether 19 characters differed between oiled and nonoiled individuals, showing a consistent pattern. The final model retained seven predictor variables showing relationships between eiders contaminated with oil and food consumption, flight, and diving abilities. We tested whether these effects were due to differences in body condition, liver mass, empty gizzard mass, or other characters that could have been affected by impaired flight and diving ability. There was no evidence of such negative impact of oiling on eiders. We found that significant exposure to oil was associated with increased diversity of antibacterial defense. Oiled eiders did not constitute a random sample, and superior diving ability as reflected by large foot area was at a selective disadvantage during oil spills. Thus, specific characteristics predispose eiders to oiling, with an adaptation to swimming, diving, and flying being traded against the costs of oiling. In contrast, individuals with a high degree of physiological plasticity may experience an advantage because their uropygial secretions counteract the effects of oil contamination.

First days at sea: depicting migration patterns of juvenile seabirds in highly impacted seascapes

Increasing human activities have detrimental consequences on marine ecosystems and their impact can have cumulative effects. Within marine ecosystems, seabirds respond to ecosystem variability and face multiple human pressures, especially threatened species. In long-lived species, juveniles and immatures could represent up to 50% of the total population, but their migratory movements remain largely unknown. Here, we depict the migratory patterns of juvenile Balearic shearwaters Puffinus mauretanicus, the most threatened European seabird, using miniaturised satellite transmitters. At the end of the 2012 breeding season, five tagged juveniles left the breeding colonies of Eivissa Island (western Mediterranean) the first week of July. They moved westwards to reach the Atlantic Ocean between 3 and 13 days afterwards. Juveniles showed a two-phase migratory pattern: they first travelled slower close to the breeding colonies, and then moved towards their wintering areas in the Atlantic Ocean by rapid directional movements. Environmental cues (e.g.,marine productivity, water mass distribution, frontal systems) might have a prominent role in driving the migratory patterns of juvenile Balearic shearwaters, moving from warm and poor marine areas in the Mediterranean Sea to cooler and rich non-breeding grounds in the Atlantic Ocean. Based on observational findings, we observed certain spatial overlap of juvenile Balearic shearwaters with areas of high human impact, but the relationship between flying travel speed and both fishing effort and cumulative human impacts were not statistically significant. These results suggest that more research is needed to assess whether the movement patterns of migrating juveniles are affected by human activities. Therefore, understanding the at-sea spatial ecology of juveniles should be a priority for research and conservation due to the importance of this population component in long-lived species, as well as assessing their vulnerability to multiple anthropogenic pressures.

Spatial drivers of instability in marine size-spectrum ecosystems

Size-spectrum models are a recent class of models describing the dynamics of a whole community based on a description of individual organisms. The models are motivated by marine ecosystems where they cover the size range from multicellular plankton to the largest fish. We propose to extend the size-spectrum model with spatial components. The spatial dynamics is governed by a random motion and a directed movement in the direction of increased fitness, which we call 'fitness-taxis'. We use the model to explore whether spatial irregularities of marine communities can occur due to the internal dynamics of predator-prey interactions and spatial movements. This corresponds to a pattern-formation analysis generalized to an entire ecosystem but is not limited to one prey and one predator population. The analyses take the form of Fourier analysis and numerical experiments. Results show that diffusion always stabilizes the equilibrium but fitness-taxis destabilizes it, leading to non-stationary spatially inhomogeneous population densities, which are travelling in size. However, there is a strong asymmetry between fitness-induced destabilizing effects and diffusion-induced stabilizing effects with the latter dominating over the former. These findings reveal that fitness taxis acts as a possible mechanism behind pattern formations in ecosystems with high diversity of organism sizes, which can drive the emergence of spatial heterogeneity even in a spatially homogeneous environment.

Effects of petroleum exposure on birds: A review

Birds are vulnerable to petroleum pollution, and exposure has a range of negative effects resulting from plumage fouling, systemic toxicity, and embryotoxicity. Recent research has not been synthesized since Leighton's 1993 review despite the continued discharge of conventional petroleum, including high-volume oil spills and chronic oil pollution, as well as the emergence of understudied unconventional crude oil types. To address this, we reviewed the individual-level effects of crude oil and refined fuel exposure in avifauna with peer-reviewed articles published 1993-2020 to provide a critical synthesis of the state of the science. We also sought to answer how unconventional crude petroleum effects compare with conventional crude oil. Relevant knowledge gaps and research challenges were identified. The resulting review examines avian exposure to petroleum and synthesizes advances regarding the physical effects of oil hydrocarbons on feather structure and function, as well the toxic effects of inhaled or ingested oil, embryotoxicity, and how exposure affects broader scale endpoints related to behavior, reproduction, and survival. Another outcome of the review was the knowledge gaps and challenges identified. The first finding was a paucity of oil ingestion rate estimates in birds. Characterizing environmentally realistic exposure and ingestion rates is a higher research priority than additional conventional oral dosing experiments. Second, there is an absence of toxicity data for unconventional crude petroleum. Although the effects of air and water contamination in the Canadian oil sands region have received attention, toxicity data for direct exposure to unrefined bitumen produced there in high volumes and other such unconventional oil types are needed. Third, we encountered barriers to the interpretation, replication, broad relevance, and comparability of studies. We therefore propose best practices and promising technological advancements for researchers. This review consolidates our understanding of petroleum's effects on birds and points a way forward for researchers and resource managers.

Linking demographic and food-web models to understand management trade-offs

Alternatives in ecosystem-based management often differ with respect to trade-offs between ecosystem values. Ecosystem or food-web models and demographic models are typically employed to evaluate alternatives, but the approaches are rarely integrated to uncover conflicts between values. We applied multistate models to a capture-recapture dataset on common guillemots Uria aalge breeding in the Baltic Sea to identify factors influencing survival. The estimated relationships were employed together with Ecopath-with-Ecosim food-web model simulations to project guillemot survival under six future scenarios incorporating climate change. The scenarios were based on management alternatives for eutrophication and cod fisheries, issues considered top priority for regional management, but without known direct effects on the guillemot population. Our demographic models identified prey quantity (abundance and biomass of sprat Sprattus sprattus) as the main factor influencing guillemot survival. Most scenarios resulted in projections of increased survival, in the near (2016-2040) and distant (2060-2085) future. However, in the scenario of reduced nutrient input and precautionary cod fishing, guillemot survival was projected to be lower in both future periods due to lower sprat stocks. Matrix population models suggested a substantial decline of the guillemot population in the near future, 24% per 10 years, and a smaller reduction, 1.1% per 10 years, in the distant future. To date, many stakeholders and Baltic Sea governments have supported reduced nutrient input and precautionary cod fishing and implementation is underway. Negative effects on nonfocal species have previously not been uncovered, but our results show that the scenario is likely to negatively impact the guillemot population. Linking model results allowed identifying trade-offs associated with management alternatives. This information is critical to thorough evaluation by decision-makers, but not easily obtained by food-web models or demographic models in isolation. Appropriate datasets are often available, making it feasible to apply a linked approach for better-informed decisions in ecosystem-based management.

Nonbreeder birds at colonies display qualitatively similar seasonal mass change patterns as breeders

The difficulty in studying nonbreeding birds means that little is known about them or their resource requirements, despite forming a large and significant component of a population. One way to assess food requirements is to examine changes in body mass, because it indicates the amount of food acquired. In terms of body mass changes, our expectation is that nonbreeders will either (a) be in poorer condition than the breeders which potentially explains why they do not breed or (b) remain at a stable higher mass as they are unconstrained by the physiological costs associated with rearing chicks. Here, we interrogate body mass datasets of breeding and nonbreeding birds of two penguin species to assess these predictions and determine whether differences in mass exist between these two groups throughout the breeding season. The first dataset is from a wild Adélie penguin population, where bird mass was recorded automatically and breeding status determined from a resighting program. A second population of captive gentoo penguins were weighed regularly each breeding season. We demonstrate that although there were times in each year when breeders were heavier than their nonbreeding counterparts for both populations, the mass changes showed qualitatively similar patterns throughout the breeding season irrespective of breeding status. Heavier breeders at times during the breeding season are not unexpected but the overall similar pattern of mass change irrespective of breeding status is in contrast to expectations. It appears that breeding status per se and the constraints that breeding places on birds are not the only driver of changes in mass throughout the breeding season and, although not explicitly studied here, the role of hormones in driving changes in appetite could be key to explain these results. These results present a significant step toward understanding food requirements of nonbreeders in avian populations.

Immature survival, fertility, and density dependence drive global population dynamics in a long-lived species

Disentangling the influence of demographic parameters and the role of density dependence on species' population dynamics is a challenge, especially when fractions of the population are unobservable. Additionally, due to the difficulty of gathering data at large spatial scales, most studies ignore the global dynamic of a species, which would integrate local heterogeneity dynamics and remove the noise of dispersal. We developed an integrated population model (IPM) at a global scale to disentangle the main demographic drivers of population dynamics in a long-lived species. We used 28 yr of Audouin's Gull demographic data encompassing 69 local patches (comprising 90% of the world population). Importantly, we took into account the unobservable fraction of non-breeders and also assessed the strength of density dependence for this fraction of the population. As predicted by life histories of long-lived organisms, temporal random variation in survival was highest for immature individuals (1.326, 95% credible interval [CRI] 1.290-1.940) and lowest for adults (0.499, 95% CRI 0.487-0.720). Large temporal fluctuations in the probability of taking a reproductive sabbatical would partly explain the consistency in adult survival, with individuals most likely refraining from breeding when environmental conditions were harsh. Immature survival and fertility were the main drivers of population dynamics during the study period (r²  = 0.83, 0.77-0.87 and 0.73, 0.63-0.79, respectively). We found strong evidence of density dependence, not only due to the number of breeders (r²  = -0.34, -0.43 to -0.24) but also due to individuals on sabbatical (r²  = -0.18, -0.33 to -0.01). From a conservation point of view, the species shows a 5% annual global decrease during the last 10 years, and we propose an update of its conservation status. Even though population dynamics of long-lived organisms are very sensitive to changes in adult survival, we show here that, in the absence of strong environmental perturbations affecting this vital rate, fluctuations in population density are mainly driven by variations in survival of immature individuals and fertility. Integrated models based on long-term monitoring at a global scale may enhance our ecological and evolutionary understanding of how demographic drivers influence population dynamics.

Complex demographic heterogeneity from anthropogenic impacts in a coastal marine predator

Environmental drivers, including anthropogenic impacts, affect vital rates of organisms. Nevertheless, the influence of these drivers may depend on the physical features of the habitat and how they affect life history strategies depending on individual covariates such as age and sex. Here, the long-term monitoring (1994-2014) of marked European Shags in eight colonies in two regions with different ecological features, such as foraging habitat, allowed us to test several biological hypotheses about how survival changes by age and sex in each region by means of multi-event capture-recapture modeling. Impacts included fishing practices and bycatch, invasive introduced carnivores and the severe Prestige oil spill. Adult survival was constant but, unexpectedly, it was different between sexes. This difference was opposite in each region. The impact of the oil spill on survival was important only for adults (especially for females) in one region and lasted a single year. Juvenile survival was time dependent but this variability was not synchronized between regions, suggesting a strong signal of regional environmental variability. Mortality due to bycatch was also different between sex, age and region. Interestingly the results showed that the size of the fishing fleet is not necessarily a good proxy for assessing the impact of bycatch mortality, which may be more dependent on the fishing grounds and the fishing gears employed in each season of the year. Anthropogenic impacts affected survival differently by age and sex, which was expected for a long-lived organism with sexual size dimorphism. Strikingly, these differences varied depending on the region, indicating that habitat heterogeneity is demographically important to how environmental variability (including anthropogenic impacts) and resilience influence population dynamics.

Ontogeny of foraging behaviour in juvenile red-footed boobies (Sula sula)

The early life stages represent a crucial period that can strongly influence population dynamics. We studied the development of foraging behaviour in the red-footed booby, a tropical seabird with an extensive post-fledging care period (3 to 6 months). Adults and juveniles were observed from shore and tracked at sea using GPS loggers over 3 consecutive 12-day periods. Juveniles initially made a majority of flights inland, likely to practice flying, and formed groups of up to 10 juveniles before making short trips at sea. They left the island later and returned earlier than the adults, allowing them to be fed on the nest. Over time, juveniles left the colony alone more frequently and increased the range of their trips while remaining significantly closer to the colony than the adults. They spent more time intensively foraging (slow and sinuous trajectory) than adults, which could reflect attempts to capture prey. Juveniles foraged independently of their parents but associated frequently with congeners, particularly during area-restricted search (ARS) behaviour. The extensive post-fledging care period observed may be explained by the need to develop proper foraging skills adapted to tropical waters, where resources are particularly scarce and unpredictable.

Contrasting effects of climate and population density over time and life stages in a long-lived seabird

Although population responses to environmental variability have been extensively studied for many organisms, few studies have considered early-life stages owing to the inherent difficulties in tracking the fate of young individuals. However, young individuals are expected to be more sensitive to environmental stochasticity owing to their inexperience and lower competitive abilities. Thus, they are keys to understand demographic responses of an age-structured population to environmental variability.In this study, we used capture-recapture modelling, based on a 49 year-long individual-based longitudinal monitoring dataset, to investigate climatic and population density effects on immature demographic parameters in a long-lived seabird, the wandering albatross.We provide evidence that climate and population size affected both survival and recruitment age of young individuals although in different ways according to the trait. We found that early-life survival was mainly affected by population density, whereas recruitment age variation appeared to be better explained by climatic conditions, with a surprising long-term effect of climate. While population size explained 60% of the variation in juvenile survival, the average Southern Annular Mode over the five previous years explained 52% of variation in recruitment age.In addition, although early-life survival was consistently negatively affected by population size, the relationship between recruitment age and population size shifted from negative to positive over time from the 1970s to 2000s, showing that density dependence mechanisms can temporarily disappear.Finally, we found that similar climatic conditions may affect individual performances in opposite ways according to the life stage of individuals. This result underlines the critical need to assess age-specific functional responses to environmental variability to allow accurate demographic predictions. By revealing the poorly known demographic process of younger age classes, the results of this study improve our understanding of population dynamics of long-lived marine species. A lay summary is available for this article.

Sooty tern (Onychoprion fuscatus) survival, oil spills, shrimp fisheries, and hurricanes

Migratory seabirds face threats from climate change and a variety of anthropogenic disturbances. Although most seabird research has focused on the ecology of individuals at the colony, technological advances now allow researchers to track seabird movements at sea and during migration. We combined telemetry data on Onychoprion fuscatus (sooty terns) with a long-term capture-mark-recapture dataset from the Dry Tortugas National Park to map the movements at sea for this species, calculate estimates of mortality, and investigate the impact of hurricanes on a migratory seabird. Included in the latter analysis is information on the locations of recovered bands from deceased individuals wrecked by tropical storms. We present the first known map of sooty tern migration in the Atlantic Ocean. Our results indicate that the birds had minor overlaps with areas affected by the major 2010 oil spill and a major shrimp fishery. Indices of hurricane strength and occurrence are positively correlated with annual mortality and indices of numbers of wrecked birds. As climate change may lead to an increase in severity and frequency of major hurricanes, this may pose a long-term problem for this colony.

Metapopulation Tracking Juvenile Penguins Reveals an Ecosystem-wide Ecological Trap

Climate change and fisheries are transforming the oceans, but we lack a complete understanding of their ecological impact [1-3]. Environmental degradation can cause maladaptive habitat selection, inducing ecological traps with profound consequences for biodiversity [4-6]. However, whether ecological traps operate in marine systems is unclear [7]. Large marine vertebrates may be vulnerable to ecological traps [6], but their broad-scale movements and complex life histories obscure the population-level consequences of habitat selection [8, 9]. We satellite tracked postnatal dispersal in African penguins (Spheniscus demersus) from eight sites across their breeding range to test whether they have become ecologically trapped in the degraded Benguela ecosystem. Bayesian state-space and habitat models show that penguins traversed thousands of square kilometers to areas of low sea surface temperatures (14.5°C-17.5°C) and high chlorophyll-a (∼11 mg m^-3). These were once reliable cues for prey-rich waters, but climate change and industrial fishing have depleted forage fish stocks in this system [10, 11]. Juvenile penguin survival is low in populations selecting degraded areas, and Bayesian projection models suggest that breeding numbers are ∼50% lower than if non-impacted habitats were used, revealing the extent and effect of a marine ecological trap for the first time. These cascading impacts of localized forage fish depletion-unobserved in studies on adults-were only elucidated via broad-scale movement and demographic data on juveniles. Our results support suspending fishing when prey biomass drops below critical thresholds [12, 13] and suggest that mitigation of marine ecological traps will require matching conservation action to the scale of ecological processes [14].

Contrasting effects of tropical cyclones on the annual survival of a pelagic seabird in the Indian Ocean

Tropical cyclones are renowned for their destructive nature and are an important feature of marine and coastal tropical ecosystems. Over the last 40 years, their intensity, frequency and tracks have changed, partly in response to ocean warming, and future predictions indicate that these trends are likely to continue with potential consequences for human populations and coastal ecosystems. However, our understanding of how tropical cyclones currently affect marine biodiversity, and pelagic species in particular, is limited. For seabirds, the impacts of cyclones are known to be detrimental at breeding colonies, but impacts on the annual survival of pelagic adults and juveniles remain largely unexplored and no study has simultaneously explored the direct impacts of cyclones on different life-history stages across the annual life cycle. We used a 20-year data set on tropical cyclones in the Indian Ocean, tracking data from 122 Round Island petrels and long-term capture-mark-recapture data to explore the impacts of tropical cyclones on the survival of adult and juvenile (first year) petrels during both the breeding and migration periods. The tracking data showed that juvenile and adult Round Island petrels utilize the three cyclone regions of the Indian Ocean and were potentially exposed to cyclones for a substantial part of their annual cycle. However, only juvenile petrel survival was affected by cyclone activity; negatively by a strong cyclone in the vicinity of the breeding colony and positively by increasing cyclone activity in the Northern Indian Ocean where they spend the majority of their first year at sea. These contrasting effects raise the intriguing prospect that the projected changes in cyclones under current climate change scenarios may have positive as well as the more commonly perceived negative impacts on marine biodiversity.

Modeling Nonresident Seabird Foraging Distributions to Inform Ocean Zoning in Central California

Seabird aggregations at sea have been shown to be associated with concentrations of prey. Previous research identified Central California as a highly used foraging area for seabirds, with locally breeding seabirds foraging close to their colonies on Southeast Farallon Island. Herein, we focus on nonresident (i.e. non-locally breeding) seabird species off of Central California. We hypothesized that high-use foraging areas for nonresident seabirds would be influenced by oceanographic and bathymetric factors and that spatial and temporal distributions would be similar within planktivorous and generalist foraging guilds but would differ between them. With data collected by the Applied California Current Ecosystem Studies (ACCESS) partnership during cruises between April and October from 2004–2013, we developed generalized linear models to identify high-use foraging areas for each of six nonresident seabird species. The four generalist species are Phoebastria nigripes (black-footed albatross), Ardenna griseus (sooty shearwater), Ardenna creatopus (pink-footed shearwater), and Fulmarus glacialis (northern fulmar). The two planktivorous species are Phalaropus lobatus (red-necked phalarope) and Phalaropus fulicarius (red phalarope). Sea surface temperature was significant for generalist species and sea surface salinity was important for planktivorous species. The distance to the 200-m isobath was significant in five of six models, Pacific Decadal Oscillation with a 3-month lag in four models, and sea surface fluorescence, the distance to Cordell Bank, and depth in three models. We did not find statistically significant differences between distributions of individual seabird species within a foraging guild or between guilds, with the exception of the sooty shearwater. Model results for a multi-use seabird foraging area highlighted the continental shelf break, particularly within the vicinity of Cordell Bank, as the highest use areas as did Marxan prioritization. Our research methods can be implemented elsewhere to identify critical habitat that needs protection as human development pressures continue to expand to the ocean.

Environmental Predictors of Seabird Wrecks in a Tropical Coastal Area

Beached bird surveys have been widely used to monitor the impact of oil pollution in the oceans. However, separating the combined effects of oil pollution, environmental variables and methodological aspects of beach monitoring on seabird stranding patterns is a challenging task. The effects of a comprehensive set of oceanographic and climatic variables and oil pollution on seabird strandings in a tropical area of Brazil were investigated herein, using two robust and innovative methods: Generalized Linear Mixed Models and Structural Equation Modeling. We assessed strandings of four resident seabird species along 480 km of beaches divided into 11 sampling areas, between November 2010 and September 2013. We found that increasing the distance from the nearest breeding island reduce the seabird stranding events. Storm activity and biological productivity were the most important factors affecting the stranding events of brown boobies Sula leucogaster, Cabot’s terns Thalasseus acuflavidus and kelp gulls Larus dominicanus. These species are also indirectly affected by warm tropical waters, which reduce chlorophyll-a concentrations. Beach surveys are, thus, useful to investigate the mortality rates of resident species near breeding sites, where individuals are more abundant and exposed to local factors associated with at-sea mortality. In contrast, conservation actions and monitoring programs for far-ranging seabird species are needed in more distant foraging areas. Furthermore, beach monitoring programs investigating the impact of oil pollution on seabirds need to account for the effects of environmental factors on stranding patterns. The present study also demonstrated that seabirds inhabiting tropical coastal waters are sensitive to climate conditions such as adverse weather, which are expected to increase in frequency and intensity in next decades.

Linking effects of anthropogenic debris to ecological impacts

Accelerated contamination of habitats with debris has caused increased effort to determine ecological impacts. Strikingly, most work on organisms focuses on sublethal responses to plastic debris. This is controversial because (i) researchers have ignored medical insights about the mechanisms that link effects of debris across lower levels of biological organization to disease and mortality, and (ii) debris is considered non-hazardous by policy-makers, possibly because individuals can be injured or removed from populations and assemblages without ecological impacts. We reviewed the mechanisms that link effects of debris across lower levels of biological organization to assemblages and populations. Using plastic, we show microplastics reduce the 'health', feeding, growth and survival of ecosystem engineers. Larger debris alters assemblages because fishing-gear and tyres kill animals and damage habitat-forming plants, and because floating bottles facilitate recruitment and survival of novel taxa. Where ecological linkages are not known, we show how to establish hypothetical links by synthesizing studies to assess the likelihood of impacts. We also consider how population models examine ecological linkages and guide management of ecological impacts. We show that by focusing on linkages to ecological impacts rather than the presence of debris and its sublethal impacts, we could reduce threats posed by debris.

Population Viability and Vital Rate Sensitivity of an Endangered Avian Cooperative Breeder, the White-Breasted Thrasher (Ramphocinclus brachyurus)

Social behaviors can significantly affect population viability, and some behaviors might reduce extinction risk. We used population viability analysis to evaluate effects of past and proposed habitat loss on the White-breasted Thrasher (Ramphocinclus brachyurus), a cooperatively breeding songbird with a global population size of <2000 individuals. We used an individual-based approach to build the first demographic population projection model for this endangered species, parameterizing the model with data from eight years of field study before and after habitat loss within the stronghold of the species' distribution. The recent habitat loss resulted in an approximately 18% predicted decline in population size; this estimate was mirrored by a separate assessment using occupancy data. When mortality rates remained close to the pre-habitat loss estimate, quasi-extinction probability was low under extant habitat area, but increased with habitat loss expected after current plans for resort construction are completed. Post-habitat loss mortality rate estimates were too high for projected populations to persist. Vital rate sensitivity analyses indicated that population growth rate and population persistence were most sensitive to juvenile mortality. However, observed values for adult mortality were closest to the threshold value above which populations would crash. Adult mortality, already relatively low, may have the least capacity to change compared to other vital rates, whereas juvenile mortality may have the most capacity for improvement. Results suggest that improving mortality estimates and determining the cause(s) of juvenile mortality should be research priorities. Despite predictions that aspects of cooperative systems may result in variation in reproduction or juvenile mortality being the most sensitive vital rates, adult mortality was the most sensitive in half of the demographic models of other avian cooperative breeders. Interestingly, vital rate sensitivity differed by model type. However, studies that explicitly modeled the species' cooperative breeding system found reproduction to be the most sensitive rate.

Assessing the structure and temporal dynamics of seabird communities: the challenge of capturing marine ecosystem complexity

Understanding interspecific interactions, and the influences of anthropogenic disturbance and environmental change on communities, are key challenges in ecology. Despite the pressing need to understand these fundamental drivers of community structure and dynamics, only 17% of ecological studies conducted over the past three decades have been at the community level.

Here, we assess the trophic structure of the procellariiform community breeding at South Georgia, to identify the factors that determine foraging niches and possible temporal changes. We collected conventional diet data from 13 sympatric species between 1974 and 2002, and quantified intra‐ and inter‐guild, and annual variation in diet between and within foraging habits. In addition, we tested the reliability of stable isotope analysis (SIA) of seabird feathers collected over a 13‐year period, in relation to those of their potential prey, as a tool to assess community structure when diets are diverse and there is high spatial heterogeneity in environmental baselines.

Our results using conventional diet data identified a four‐guild community structure, distinguishing species that mainly feed on crustaceans; large fish and squid; a mixture of crustaceans, small fish and squid; or carrion. In total, Antarctic krill Euphausia superba represented 32%, and 14 other species a further 46% of the combined diet of all 13 predators, underlining the reliance of this community on relatively few types of prey. Annual variation in trophic segregation depended on relative prey availability; however, our data did not provide evidence of changes in guild structure associated with a suggested decline in Antarctic krill abundance over the past 40 years.

Reflecting the differences in δ¹⁵N of potential prey (crustaceans vs. squid vs. fish and carrion), analysis of δ¹⁵N in chick feathers identified a three‐guild community structure that was constant over a 13‐year period, but lacked the trophic cluster representing giant petrels which was identified using conventional diet data.

Our study is the first in recent decades to examine dietary changes in seabird communities over time. Conventional dietary analysis provided better resolution of community structure than SIA. However, δ¹⁵N in chick feathers, which reflected trophic (level) specialization, was nevertheless an effective and less time‐consuming means of monitoring temporal changes.

Long-term reproductive impairment in a seabird after the Prestige oil spill

Large oil spills are dramatic perturbations on marine ecosystems, and seabirds are one of the worst affected organisms in such events. It has been argued that oil spills may have important long-term consequences on marine organisms, but supporting evidence remains scarce. The European shag (Phalacrocorax aristotelis) was strongly impacted at population level by the Prestige oil spill, the biggest spillage in the eastern North Atlantic. In this paper, we report on the long-term consequences on reproduction of this coastal seabird, using temporal and spatial replicated data (before-after-control-impact design). Our study revealed long-term reproductive impairment during at least the first 10 years since the Prestige oil spill. Annual reproductive success did not differ before the impact, but after the impact it was reduced by 45% in oiled colonies compared with unoiled ones. This is a rare documentation of long-term effects after a major oil spill, highlighting the need for long-term monitoring in order to assess the real impact of this type of disturbance on marine organisms.

Drivers of seabird population recovery on New Zealand islands after predator eradication

Eradication of introduced mammalian predators from islands has become increasingly common, with over 800 successful projects around the world. Historically, introduced predators extirpated or reduced the size of many seabird populations, changing the dynamics of entire island ecosystems. Although the primary outcome of many eradication projects is the restoration of affected seabird populations, natural population responses are rarely documented and mechanisms are poorly understood. We used a generic model of seabird colony growth to identify key predictor variables relevant to recovery or recolonization. We used generalized linear mixed models to test the importance of these variables in driving seabird population responses after predator eradication on islands around New Zealand. The most influential variable affecting recolonization of seabirds around New Zealand was the distance to a source population, with few cases of recolonization without a source population ≤25 km away. Colony growth was most affected by metapopulation status; there was little colony growth in species with a declining status. These characteristics may facilitate the prioritization of newly predator-free islands for active management. Although we found some evidence documenting natural recovery, generally this topic was understudied. Our results suggest that in order to guide management strategies, more effort should be allocated to monitoring wildlife response after eradication.

Persistent organic pollution in a high-Arctic top predator: sex-dependent thresholds in adult survival

In long-lived species, any negative effect of pollution on adult survival may pose serious hazards to breeding populations. In this study, we measured concentrations of various organochlorines (OCs) (polychlorinated biphenyl and OC pesticides) in the blood of a large number of adult glaucous gulls (Larus hyperboreus) breeding on Bjørnøya (Bear Island) in the Norwegian Arctic, and modelled their local survival using capture-recapture analysis. Survival was negatively associated with concentrations of OCs in the blood. The effect of OCs was nonlinear and evident only among birds with the highest concentrations (the uppermost deciles of contamination). The threshold for depressed survival differed between the sexes, with females being more sensitive to contamination. For birds with lower OC concentration, survival was very high, i.e. at the upper range of survival rates reported from glaucous and other large gull species in other, presumably less contaminated populations. We propose two non-exclusive explanations. First, at some threshold of OC concentration, parents (especially males) may abandon reproduction to maximize their own survival. Second, high contamination of OC may eliminate the most sensitive individuals from the population (especially among females), inducing a strong selection towards high-quality and less sensitive phenotypes.

Tracking through life stages: adult, immature and juvenile autumn migration in a long-lived seabird

Seasonal long-distance migration is likely to be experienced in a contrasted manner by juvenile, immature and adult birds, leading to variations in migratory routes, timing and behaviour. We provide the first analysis of late summer movements and autumn migration in these three life stages, which were tracked concurrently using satellite tags, geolocators or GPS recorders in a long-ranging migratory seabird, the Scopoli's shearwater (formerly named Cory's shearwater, Calonectrisdiomedea) breeding on two French Mediterranean islands. During the late breeding season, immatures foraged around their colony like breeding adults, but they were the only group showing potential prospecting movements around non-natal colonies. Global migration routes were broadly comparable between the two populations and the three life stages, with all individuals heading towards the Atlantic Ocean through the strait of Gibraltar and travelling along the West African coast, up to 8000 km from their colony. However, detailed comparison of timing, trajectory and oceanographic conditions experienced by the birds revealed remarkable age-related differences. Compared to adults and immatures, juveniles made a longer stop-over in the Balearic Sea (10 days vs 4 days in average), showed lower synchrony in crossing the Gibraltar strait, had more sinuous pathways and covered longer daily distances (240 km.d(-1) vs 170 km.d(-1)). Analysis of oceanographic habitats along migratory routes revealed funnelling selection of habitat towards coastal and more productive waters with increasing age. Younger birds may have reduced navigational ability and learn progressively fine-scale migration routes towards the more profitable travelling and wintering areas. Our study demonstrates the importance of tracking long-lived species through the stages, to better understand migratory behavior and assess differential exposure to at-sea threats. Shared distribution between life stages and populations make Scopoli's shearwaters particularly vulnerable to extreme mortality events in autumn and winter. Such knowledge is key for the conservation of critical marine habitats.

Climate influences fledgling sex ratio and sex-specific dispersal in a seabird

Climate influences the dynamics of natural populations by direct effects over habitat quality but also modulating the phenotypic responses of organisms' life-history traits. These responses may be different in males and females, particularly in dimorphic species, due to sex-specific requirements or constraints. Here, in a coastal seabird, the European shag (Phalacrocorax aristotelis), we studied the influence of climate (North Atlantic Oscillation, NAO; Sea Surface Temperature, SST) on two sex-related population parameters: fledgling sex ratio and sex-specific dispersal. We found that fledgling sex ratio was female skewed in NAO-positive years and male skewed in NAO-negative years. Accordingly, females dispersed a longer distance in NAO-positive years when females were overproduced, and on the contrary, males dispersed more in NAO-negative years. Overall, our findings provide rare evidence on vertebrates with genetic sex determination that climate conditions may govern population dynamics by affecting sex-specific density and dispersal.

Influence of climate change and trophic coupling across four trophic levels in the Celtic Sea

Climate change has had profound effects upon marine ecosystems, impacting across all trophic levels from plankton to apex predators. Determining the impacts of climate change on marine ecosystems requires understanding the direct effects on all trophic levels as well as indirect effects mediated by trophic coupling. The aim of this study was to investigate the effects of climate change on the pelagic food web in the Celtic Sea, a productive shelf region in the Northeast Atlantic. Using long-term data, we examined possible direct and indirect 'bottom-up' climate effects across four trophic levels: phytoplankton, zooplankton, mid-trophic level fish and seabirds. During the period 1986-2007, although there was no temporal trend in the North Atlantic Oscillation index (NAO), the decadal mean Sea Surface Temperature (SST) in the Celtic Sea increased by 0.66 ± 0.02 °C. Despite this, there was only a weak signal of climate change in the Celtic Sea food web. Changes in plankton community structure were found, however this was not related to SST or NAO. A negative relationship occurred between herring abundance (0- and 1-group) and spring SST (0-group: p = 0.02, slope = -0.305 ± 0.125; 1-group: p = 0.04, slope = -0.410 ± 0.193). Seabird demographics showed complex species-specific responses. There was evidence of direct effects of spring NAO (on black-legged kittiwake population growth rate: p = 0.03, slope = 0.0314 ± 0.014) as well as indirect bottom-up effects of lagged spring SST (on razorbill breeding success: p = 0.01, slope = -0.144 ± 0.05). Negative relationships between breeding success and population growth rate of razorbills and common guillemots may be explained by interactions between mid-trophic level fish. Our findings show that the impacts of climate change on the Celtic Sea ecosystem is not as marked as in nearby regions (e.g. the North Sea), emphasizing the need for more research at regional scales.

Some clouds have a silver lining: paradoxes of anthropogenic perturbations from study cases on long-lived social birds

In recent centuries and above all over the last few decades, human activities have generated perturbations (from mild to very severe or catastrophes) that, when added to those of natural origin, constitute a global threat to biodiversity. Predicting the effects of anthropogenic perturbations on species and communities is a great scientific challenge given the complexity of ecosystems and the need for detailed population data from both before and after the perturbations. Here we present three cases of well-documented anthropogenic severe perturbations (different forms of habitat loss and deterioration influencing fertility and survival) that have affected three species of birds (a raptor, a scavenger and a waterbird) for which we possess long-term population time series. We tested whether the perturbations caused serious population decline or whether the study species were resilient, that is, its population dynamics were relatively unaffected. Two of the species did decline, although to a relatively small extent with no shift to a state of lower population numbers. Subsequently, these populations recovered rapidly and numbers reached similar levels to before the perturbations. Strikingly, in the third species a strong breakpoint took place towards greater population sizes, probably due to the colonization of new areas by recruits that were queuing at the destroyed habitat. Even though it is difficult to draw patterns of resilience from only three cases, the study species were all long-lived, social species with excellent dispersal and colonization abilities, capable of skipping reproduction and undergoing a phase of significant long-term population increase. The search for such patterns is crucial for optimizing the limited resources allocated to conservation and for predicting the future impact of planned anthropogenic activities on ecosystems.

Population genetic structure and long-distance dispersal among seabird populations: implications for colony persistence

Dramatic local population decline brought about by anthropogenic-driven change is an increasingly common threat to biodiversity. Seabird life history traits make them particularly vulnerable to such change; therefore, understanding population connectivity and dispersal dynamics is vital for successful management. Our study used a 357-base pair mitochondrial control region locus sequenced for 103 individuals and 18 nuclear microsatellite loci genotyped for 245 individuals to investigate population structure in the Atlantic and Pacific populations of the pelagic seabird, Leach's storm-petrel Oceanodroma leucorhoa leucorhoa. This species is under intense predation pressure at one regionally important colony on St Kilda, Scotland, where a disparity between population decline and predation rates hints at immigration from other large colonies. AMOVA, F(ST), Φ(ST) and Bayesian cluster analyses revealed no genetic structure among Atlantic colonies (Global Φ(ST) = -0.02 P > 0.05, Global F(ST) = 0.003, P > 0.05, STRUCTURE K = 1), consistent with either contemporary gene flow or strong historical association within the ocean basin. The Pacific and Atlantic populations are genetically distinct (Global Φ(ST) = 0.32 P < 0.0001, Global F(ST) = 0.04, P < 0.0001, STRUCTURE K = 2), but evidence for interocean exchange was found with individual exclusion/assignment and population coalescent analyses. These findings highlight the importance of conserving multiple colonies at a number of different sites and suggest that management of this seabird may be best viewed at an oceanic scale. Moreover, our study provides an illustration of how long-distance movement may ameliorate the potentially deleterious impacts of localized environmental change, although direct measures of dispersal are still required to better understand this process.

Tracking long-distance migration to assess marine pollution impact

Animal tracking provides new means to assess far-reaching environmental impacts. In the aftermath of the Deepwater Horizon explosion in the Gulf of Mexico, a long-distance migrant, the northern gannet (Morus bassanus) suffered the highest oiling among beach-wrecked birds recovered. Analysis of bird-borne tracking data indicated that 25 per cent of their North American population from multiple colonies in eastern Canada migrated to the pollution zone. Findings contrasted sharply with available mark-recapture (band recovery) data. The timing of movement into and out of the Gulf indicates that immature birds would have absorbed most oil-induced mortality. Consequently, one of two outcomes is likely: either a lagged (likely difficult to assess) population decrease, or an undetectable population response buffered by age-related life-history adaptations. Tracking research is especially useful when little information on animal distributions in pollution zones is available, as is the case in the Gulf of Mexico. Ongoing research highlights current risks and conservation concerns.

El Niño in the warm tropics: local sea temperature predicts breeding parameters and growth of blue-footed boobies

1. There is increasing interest in the impacts of El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on reproduction of apical predators such as seabirds and marine mammals. Long-term studies documenting ENSO effects on reproduction of seabirds in the warm tropics are scarce, and differential sensitivity of breeding parameters to ENSO has rarely been explored. 2. Analysis of 18 years of breeding data from a colony of the blue-footed booby Sula nebouxii (Milne-Edwards) showed a delay in onset of breeding when the global Southern Oscillation Index was negative; each unit of the atmospheric pressure differential (hPa) across the Pacific Ocean meant a delay of 7 days. 3. ENSO conditions also produced declines in breeding participation, clutch size, brood size, hatching success and fledging success, especially when surface waters surrounding the colony were warmer during winter and spring. Each additional degree (°C) of water temperature produced a reduction of 0.45 fledglings per nest. Different breeding parameters were sensitive to ENSO indices in different blocks of months. 4. Warming of local waters during the winter was associated with decline in ocean productivity in the current year and the following year, consistent with ENSO impacts on breeding parameters being mediated by effects on local productivity and prey availability. However, there was no evidence of lagged effects of ENSO on any breeding parameter. 5. Comparison of 5 years revealed that when local surface waters were warm, chicks grew more slowly, but no effects of ENSO on weight and size of eggs were evident in data of 9 and 7 years, respectively. 6. Our findings extend evidence of impacts of ENSO on seabird reproduction to the eastern tropical Pacific and indicate that several breeding parameters of blue-footed boobies (but not egg size) are affected in the short term by ENSO conditions, particularly by local anomalies in sea surface temperature associated with decline in ocean productivity.

The use of plastic debris as nesting material by a colonial seabird and associated entanglement mortality

Entanglement with plastic debris is a major cause of mortality in marine taxa, but the population-level consequences are unknown. Some seabirds collect marine debris for nesting material, which may lead to entanglement. Here we investigate the use of plastics as nesting material by northern gannets Morus bassanus and assess the associated levels of mortality. On average gannet nests contained 469.91 g (range 0-1293 g) of plastic, equating to an estimated colony total of 18.46 tones (range 4.47-42.34 tones). The majority of nesting material was synthetic rope, which appears to be used preferentially. On average 62.85 ± 26.84 (range minima 33-109) birds were entangled each year, totalling 525 individuals over eight years, the majority of which were nestlings. Although mortality rates are high, they are unlikely to have population-level effects. The use of synthetic fibres as nesting material is a common strategy among seabirds, but the impacts of entanglement warrants further investigation.