The demographic impact of extreme events: stochastic weather drives survival and population dynamics in a long-lived seabird

Exposure of protected areas in Central America to extreme weather events

Central America and the Caribbean are regularly battered by megadroughts, heavy rainfall, heat waves, and tropical cyclones. Although 21st-century climate change is expected to increase the frequency, intensity, and duration of these extreme weather events (EWEs), their incidence in regional protected areas (PAs) remains poorly explored. We examined historical and projected EWEs across the region based on 32 metrics that describe distinct dimensions (i.e., intensity, duration, and frequency) of heat waves, cyclones, droughts, and rainfall and compared trends in PAs with trends in unprotected lands. From the early 21st century onward, exposure to EWEs increased across the region, and PAs were predicted to be more exposed to climate extremes than unprotected areas (as shown by autoregressive model coefficients at p < 0.05 significance level). This was particularly true for heat waves, which were projected to have a significantly higher average (tested by Wilcoxon tests at p < 0.01) intensity and duration, and tropical cyclones, which affected PAs more severely in carbon-intensive scenarios. PAs were also predicted to be significantly less exposed to droughts and heavy rainfall than unprotected areas (tested by Wilcoxon tests at p < 0.01). However, droughts that could threaten connectivity between PAs are increasingly common in this region. We estimated that approximately 65% of the study area will experience at least one drought episode that is more intense and longer lasting than previous droughts. Collectively, our results highlight that new conservation strategies adapted to threats associated with EWEs need to be tailored and implemented promptly. Unless urgent action is taken, significant damage may be inflicted on the unique biodiversity of the region.

Meta-analysis reveals less sensitivity of non-native animals than natives to extreme weather worldwide

Extreme weather events (EWEs; for example, heatwaves, cold spells, storms, floods and droughts) and non-native species invasions are two major threats to global biodiversity and are increasing in both frequency and consequences. Here we synthesize 443 studies and apply multilevel mixed-effects metaregression analyses to compare the responses of 187 non-native and 1,852 native animal species across terrestrial, freshwater and marine ecosystems to different types of EWE. Our results show that marine animals, regardless of whether they are non-native or native, are overall insensitive to EWEs, except for negative effects of heatwaves on native mollusks, corals and anemone. By contrast, terrestrial and freshwater non-native animals are only adversely affected by heatwaves and storms, respectively, whereas native animals negatively respond to heatwaves, cold spells and droughts in terrestrial ecosystems and are vulnerable to most EWEs except cold spells in freshwater ecosystems. On average, non-native animals displayed low abundance in terrestrial ecosystems, and decreased body condition and life history traits in freshwater ecosystems, whereas native animals displayed declines in body condition, life history traits, abundance, distribution and recovery in terrestrial ecosystems, and community structure in freshwater ecosystems. By identifying areas with high overlap between EWEs and EWE-tolerant non-native species, we also provide locations where native biodiversity might be adversely affected by their joint effects and where EWEs might facilitate the establishment and/or spread of non-native species under continuing global change.

A conceptual framework for assessing behavioral flexibility of species in response to extreme climatic events

Inherent differences in the adaptive capacity of species to flexibly respond to extreme climatic events (ECEs) represent a key factor in their survivorship. We introduce and apply a conceptual framework linking knowledge about species' current ecology and biology with variation in behavioral flexibility to ECEs. We applied it to 199 non-human primate species currently exposed to cyclones across the global tropics. Our findings suggest that species characterized by an increased ability to exploit a broad range of food types, social systems that permit subgrouping, and habitat types that span a range of environmental conditions may have greater success in coping with cyclones than more narrowly constrained or less adaptable primates. Overall, 15% of species, predominantly of the families Atelidae and Cercopithecidae, were assessed as having high or very high flexibility. In contrast, ~ 60% of primates were assessed with low or very low flexibility. These were species mainly belonging to the Cheirogaleidae, Lemuridae, Lepilemuridae, and Indriidae. While much work remains to better understand mechanisms driving differences in behavioral flexibility of species exposed to extreme climate across vertebrate lineages, our framework provides a workable approach that can improve estimates of current vulnerability to these phenomena and better inform conservation and management strategies.

Can Citizen Science Contribute to Avian Influenza Surveillance?

Global change is an important driver of the increase in emerging infectious diseases in recent decades. In parallel, interest in nature has increased, and different citizen science platforms have been developed to record wildlife observations from the general public. Some of these platforms also allow registering the observations of dead or sick birds. Here, we test the utility of live, sick and dead observations of birds recorded on the platform Observation.org for the early detection of highly pathogenic avian influenza virus (HPAIV) outbreaks in the wild in Belgium and The Netherlands. There were no significant differences in the morbidity/mortality rate through Observation.org one to four weeks in advance. However, the results show that the HPAIV outbreaks officially reported by the World Organisation for Animal Health (WOAH) overlapped in time with sudden increases in the records of sick and dead birds in the wild. In addition, in two of the five main HPAIV outbreaks recorded between 2016 and 2021, wild Anseriformes mortality increased one to two months before outbreak declaration. Although we cannot exclude that this increase was related to other causes such as other infectious diseases, we propose that Observation.org is a useful nature platform to complement animal health surveillance in wild birds. We propose possible approaches to improve the utility of the platform for pathogen surveillance in wildlife and discuss the potential for HPAIV outbreak detection systems based on citizen science to complement current surveillance programs of health authorities.

Weathering the storm: Decreased activity and glucocorticoid levels in response to inclement weather in breeding Columbian ground squirrels

Inclement weather can rapidly modify the thermal conditions experienced by animals, inducing changes in their behavior, body condition, and stress physiology, and affecting their survival and breeding success. For animals living in variable environments, the extent to which they have adapted to cope with inclement weather is not established, especially for hibernating species with a short active season that are constrained temporally to breed and store energy for subsequent hibernation. We examined behavioral (foraging activity) and physiological (body mass and fecal cortisol metabolites) responses of Columbian ground squirrels (Urocitellus columbianus), small hibernating rodents inhabiting open meadows in Rocky Mountains, to 3 events of inclement weather (two snow storms in May 2021 and May 2022, one heavy rainfall in June 2022). We found that individuals adapted to inclement weather conditions by (1) reducing above-ground activity, including foraging, (2) decreasing the mobilization of stored resources as indicated by a decrease in the activity of the hypothalamo-pituitary-adrenal (HPA) axis and lower fecal cortisol metabolites in the hours/days following periods of inclement weather; and (3) compensating through increased foraging and more local activity when favorable conditions resumed. As a result, body mass and growth did not decrease following short periods of inclement weather. Columbian ground squirrels were well-adapted to short periods of inclement weather, coping via modifications of their behavior and the activity of the HPA axis.

Consequences of cross-season demographic correlations for population viability

Demographic correlations are pervasive in wildlife populations and can represent important secondary drivers of population growth. Empirical evidence suggests that correlations are in general positive for long-lived species, but little is known about the degree of variation among spatially segregated populations of the same species in relation to environmental conditions. We assessed the relative importance of two cross-season correlations in survival and productivity, for three Atlantic puffin (Fratercula arctica) populations with contrasting population trajectories and non-overlapping year-round distributions. The two correlations reflected either a relationship between adult survival prior to breeding on productivity, or a relationship between productivity and adult survival the subsequent year. Demographic rates and their correlations were estimated with an integrated population model, and their respective contributions to variation in population growth were calculated using a transient-life table response experiment. For all three populations, demographic correlations were positive at both time lags, although their strength differed. Given the different year-round distributions of these populations, this variation in the strength population-level demographic correlations points to environmental conditions as an important driver of demographic variation through life-history constraints. Consequently, the contributions of variances and correlations in demographic rates to population growth rates differed among puffin populations, which has implications for-particularly small-populations' viability under environmental change as positive correlations tend to reduce the stochastic population growth rate.

Demographic consequences of changes in environmental periodicity

The fate of natural populations is mediated by complex interactions among vital rates, which can vary within and among years. Although the effects of random, among-year variation in vital rates have been studied extensively, relatively little is known about how periodic, nonrandom variation in vital rates affects populations. This knowledge gap is potentially alarming as global environmental change is projected to alter common periodic variations, such as seasonality. We investigated the effects of changes in vital-rate periodicity on populations of three species representing different forms of adaptation to periodic environments: the yellow-bellied marmot (Marmota flaviventer), adapted to strong seasonality in snowfall; the meerkat (Suricata suricatta), adapted to inter-annual stochasticity as well as seasonal patterns in rainfall; and the dewy pine (Drosophyllum lusitanicum), adapted to fire regimes and periodic post-fire habitat succession. To assess how changes in periodicity affect population growth, we parameterized periodic matrix population models and projected population dynamics under different scenarios of perturbations in the strength of vital-rate periodicity. We assessed the effects of such perturbations on various metrics describing population dynamics, including the stochastic growth rate, log λ_S . Overall, perturbing the strength of periodicity had strong effects on population dynamics in all three study species. For the marmots, log λ_S decreased with increased seasonal differences in adult survival. For the meerkats, density dependence buffered the effects of perturbations of periodicity on log λ_S . Finally, dewy pines were negatively affected by changes in natural post-fire succession under stochastic or periodic fire regimes with fires occurring every 30 years, but were buffered by density dependence from such changes under presumed more frequent fires or large-scale disturbances. We show that changes in the strength of vital-rate periodicity can have diverse but strong effects on population dynamics across different life histories. Populations buffered from inter-annual vital-rate variation can be affected substantially by changes in environmentally driven vital-rate periodic patterns; however, the effects of such changes can be masked in analyses focusing on inter-annual variation. As most ecosystems are affected by periodic variations in the environment such as seasonality, assessing their contributions to population viability for future global-change research is crucial.

Opposing effects of spatiotemporal variation in resources and temporal variation in climate on density dependent population growth in seabirds

Understanding how ecological processes combine to shape population dynamics is crucial in a rapidly changing world. Evidence has been emerging for how fundamental drivers of density dependence in mobile species are related to two differing types of environmental variation-temporal variation in climate, and spatiotemporal variation in food resources. However, to date, tests of these hypotheses have been largely restricted to mid-trophic species in terrestrial environments and thus their general applicability remains unknown. We tested if these same processes can be identified in marine upper trophic level species. We assembled a multi-decadal data set on population abundance of 10 species of colonial seabirds comprising a large component of the UK breeding seabird biomass, and covering diverse phylogenies, life histories and foraging behaviours. We tested for evidence of density dependence in population growth rates using discrete time state-space population models fit to long time-series of observations of abundance at seabird breeding colonies. We then assessed if the strength of density dependence in population growth rates was exacerbated by temporal variation in climate (sea temperature and swell height), and attenuated by spatiotemporal variation in prey resources (productivity and tidal fronts). The majority of species showed patterns consistent with temporal variation in climate acting to strengthen density dependent feedbacks to population growth. However, fewer species showed evidence for a weakening of density dependence with increasing spatiotemporal variation in prey resources. Our findings extend this emerging theory for how different sources of environmental variation may shape the dynamics and regulation of animal populations, demonstrating its role in upper trophic marine species. We show that environmental variation leaves a signal in long-term population dynamics of seabirds with potentially important consequences for their demography and trophic interactions.

Survival fluctuation is linked to precipitation variation during staging in a migratory shorebird

Understanding how weather conditions affect animal populations is essential to foresee population changes in times of global climate shifts. However, assessing year-round weather impacts on demographic parameters is hampered in migratory animals due to often unknown occurrence in space and time. We addressed this by coupling tracking and weather data to explain extensive variation in apparent survival across 19 years in a northern European population of little ringed plovers (Charadrius dubius). Over 90% (n = 21) of tracked individuals followed migration routes along the Indo-European flyway to south India. Building on capture-recapture histories of nearly 1400 individuals, we found that between-year variation in precipitation during post-breeding staging in northern South Asia explained 47% of variation in apparent adult survival. Overall, the intensity of the monsoon in South Asia explained 31-33% of variability in apparent survival. In contrast, weather conditions in breeding, final non-breeding and pre-breeding quarters appeared less important in this species. The integration of multi-source data seems essential for identifying key regions and periods limiting population growth, for forecasting future changes and targeting conservation efforts.

Will climate change affect the survival of tropical and subtropical species? Predictions based on Bulwer's petrel populations in the NE Atlantic Ocean

Climate change has repeatedly been shown to impact the demography and survival of marine top predators. However, most evidence comes from single populations of widely distributed species, limited mainly to polar and subpolar environments. Here, we aimed to evaluate the influence of environmental conditions on the survival of a tropical and migratory seabird over the course of its annual cycle. We used capture-mark-recapture data from three populations of Bulwer's petrel (Bulweria bulwerii) spread across the NE Atlantic Ocean, from the Azores, Canary, and Cabo Verde Islands (including temperate to tropical zones). We also inferred how the survival of this seabird might be affected under different climatic scenarios, defined by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Among the environmental variables whose effect we evaluated (North Atlantic Oscillation index, Southern Oscillation Index, Sea Surface Temperature [SST] and wind speed), SST estimated for the breeding area and season was the variable with the greatest influence on adult survival. Negative effects of SST increase emerged across the three populations, most likely through indirect trophic web interactions. Unfortunately, our study also shows that the survival of Bulwer's petrel will be profoundly affected by the different scenarios of climate change, even with the most optimistic trajectory involving the lowest greenhouse gas emission. Furthermore, for the first time, our study predicts stronger impacts of climate change on tropical populations than on subtropical and temperate ones. This result highlights the devastating effect that climate change may also have on tropical areas, and the importance of considering multi-population approaches when evaluating its impacts which may differ across species distributions.

Behavioural flexibility in an Arctic seabird using two distinct marine habitats to survive the energetic constraints of winter

BACKGROUND

Homeothermic marine animals in Polar Regions face an energetic bottleneck in winter. The challenges of short days and cold temperatures are exacerbated for flying seabirds with small body size and limited fat stores. We use biologging approaches to examine how habitat, weather, and moon illumination influence behaviour and energetics of a marine bird species, thick-billed murres (Uria lomvia).

METHODS

We used temperature-depth-light recorders to examine strategies murres use to survive winter in the Northwest Atlantic, where contrasting currents create two distinct marine habitats: cold (-0.1 ± 1.2 °C), shallower water along the Labrador Shelf and warmer (3.1 ± 0.3 °C), deep water in the Labrador Basin.

RESULTS

In the cold shelf water, murres used a high-energy strategy, with more flying and less diving each day, resulting in high daily energy expenditure and also high apparent energy intake; this strategy was most evident in early winter when day lengths were shortest. By contrast, murres in warmer basin water employed a low-energy strategy, with less time flying and more time diving under low light conditions (nautical twilight and night). In warmer basin water, murres increased diving at night when the moon was more illuminated, likely taking advantage of diel vertically migrating prey. In warmer basin water, murres dove more at night and foraging efficiency increased under negative North Atlantic Oscillation (calmer ocean conditions).

CONCLUSIONS

The proximity of two distinct marine habitats in this region allows individuals from a single species to use dual (low-energy/high-energy) strategies to overcome winter energy bottlenecks.

Seabird beachcast events associated with bycatch in the Norwegian purse seine fishery

Beachcast events, where a large number of seabird carcasses drift ashore, occur with irregular intervals. These events are due to specific situations where mass mortality of seabirds have occurred. Disentangling the cause of these events can provide valuable information on stressors impacting seabird populations. Following several mass mortality events involving gulls in northern Norway, an investigation of the probable cause of death was initiated. In total 75 dead gulls were collected at two occasions and necropsies were carried out. The findings from the necropsy of the gulls were consistent with drowning as the primary cause of death. Bycatch in coastal purse seine fishery was considered a potential cause of the mortality and monitoring of seabird bycatch in this fishery was thus initiated. The monitoring of fishing operations revealed that 10% of 91 fishing events observed led to bycatch, with a total of 32 bycaught seabirds. These bycatch events resulted in a total estimated bycatch rate of 0.356 (95% CI = 0.133-0.949) birds per haul. These findings are consistent with the hypothesis that the registered mortality events were caused by bycatch in the purse seine fishery. The highly episodic and unpredictable nature of these events makes it demanding to achieve solid estimates of the occurrence and extent of bycatch without a very high monitoring effort. Our study shows that systematic investigation following beachcast events can shed light on the occurrence of such extreme events.

Episodes of high recruitment buffer against climate-driven mass mortality events in a North Pacific seabird population

Longitudinal studies of marked animals provide an opportunity to assess the relative contributions of survival and reproductive output to population dynamics and change. Cassin's auklets are a long-lived seabird that maximizes annual reproductive effort in resource-rich years through a behaviour called double brooding, the initiation of a second breeding attempt following the success of the first during the same season. Our objective was to explore whether double brooding influenced population change by contributing a greater number of future recruits. We fit temporal symmetry models to 32 years of mark-recapture data of Cassin's auklets to infer the mechanisms underlying the observed variability in per capita recruitment rates. We found that periodic peaks in recruitment were explained by an increase in available nest sites, the proportion of the population double brooding 4 years prior, and spring upwelling conditions. Estimates of population change suggests a relatively stable population throughout the time series, attributable to a 'floating' demographic class of sexually mature individuals excluded from breeding by competition which quickly fill vacant sites following periods of low adult survival. Our results highlight the importance of recruitment in maintaining the population of a long-lived seabird periodically impacted by adverse environmental conditions.

Extreme climate event promotes phenological mismatch between sexes in hibernating ground squirrels

Hibernating ground squirrels rely on a short active period for breeding and mass accrual, and are thus vulnerable to extreme climate events that affect key periods in their annual cycle. Here, we document how a heatwave in March 2012 led to a phenological mismatch between sexes in Richardson’s ground squirrels (Urocitellus richardsonii). Females emerged from hibernation and commenced breeding earlier in 2012 relative to average female emergence. Although males had descended testes and pigmented scrota, it appeared that not all males were physiologically prepared to breed since 58.6% of males had non-motile sperm when breeding commenced. Body condition, relative testes size, and the relative size of accessory glands were significant predictors of sperm motility. Males with non-motile sperm had smaller accessory glands than males with motile sperm. There was no decrease in the number of juveniles that emerged in 2012 or female yearlings recruited in 2013, nor did juveniles emerge later than other years. The impact of this heatwave on male ground squirrels emphasizes the importance of assessing the consequences of climate change on the breeding success of hibernating species in both sexes, since the different sensitivity to external cues for emergence led to a mismatch in timing under this event.

North Atlantic winter cyclones starve seabirds

Each winter, the North Atlantic Ocean is the stage for numerous cyclones, the most severe ones leading to seabird mass-mortality events called "winter wrecks."^1-3 During these, thousands of emaciated seabird carcasses are washed ashore along European and North American coasts. Winter cyclones can therefore shape seabird population dynamics^4,5 by affecting survival rates as well as the body condition of surviving individuals and thus their future reproduction. However, most often the geographic origins of impacted seabirds and the causes of their deaths remain unclear.⁶ We performed the first ocean-basin scale assessment of cyclone exposure in a seabird community by coupling winter tracking data for ∼1,500 individuals of five key North Atlantic seabird species (Alle alle, Fratercula arctica, Uria aalge, Uria lomvia, and Rissa tridactyla) and cyclone locations. We then explored the energetic consequences of different cyclonic conditions using a mechanistic bioenergetics model⁷ and tested the hypothesis that cyclones dramatically increase seabird energy requirements. We demonstrated that cyclones of high intensity impacted birds from all studied species and breeding colonies during winter but especially those aggregating in the Labrador Sea, the Davis Strait, the surroundings of Iceland, and the Barents Sea. Our broad-scale analyses suggested that cyclonic conditions do not increase seabird energy requirements, implying that they die because of the unavailability of their prey and/or their inability to feed during cyclones. Our study provides essential information on seabird cyclone exposure in a context of marked cyclone regime changes due to global warming.⁸.

Comparing non-breeding distribution and behavior of red-legged kittiwakes from two geographically distant colonies

Knowledge of non-breeding distributions is a crucial component to seabird conservation, as conditions during the non-breeding period can play an important role in regulating seabird populations. Specifically, if seabirds from different colonies share the same wintering grounds, conditions in that shared region could have a widespread impact on multiple breeding populations. Red-legged kittiwakes (Rissa brevirostris) are endemic to the Bering Sea and may be especially susceptible to effects of climate change due to a restricted breeding range, small population size, and specialized diet. To examine whether red-legged kittiwakes from different breeding colonies overlapped in winter distribution and activity patterns, we used geolocation loggers to simultaneously track individuals from the two largest red-legged kittiwake breeding colonies in Alaska (separated by over 1000 km) during two consecutive non-breeding periods. We found that non-breeding activity patterns were generally similar between birds originating from the two colonies, but birds employed different migratory strategies during the early winter. Kittiwakes from Buldir Island in the western Aleutian Islands left the colony in September and immediately headed west, spending October through December around the Sea of Okhotsk and the Kuril Islands. In contrast, birds from St. George Island in the Pribilof Islands remained in the eastern Bering Sea or around the eastern Aleutian Islands for a couple months before traveling farther west. During late winter however, from January through March, birds from both colonies converged south of Kamchatka and east of the Kuril Islands over the Kuril-Kamchatka Trench and in the Western Subarctic Gyre before returning to their respective colonies in the spring. This late winter overlap in distributions along the Kuril-Kamchatka Trench suggests the region is a winter hotspot for red-legged kittiwakes and highlights the importance of this region for the global kittiwake population.

Climate instability causing the decline of a Neotropical savanna lizard population (Squamata: Tropiduridae)

Populations that evolved in predictable seasonal environments might not have mechanisms to deal with unpredictable climate change. Assessing whether these populations can cope with recent increases in climate extremes and variability can better inform conservation efforts. We investigated the effects of climate deviations and fire on the population dynamics of the lizard Tropidurus torquatus in the Cerrado of Brazil. We decomposed six climate variables into seasonal and non-seasonal components and assessed which factors, along with long- and short-term effects of fire, better accounted for variation in the survival and recruitment of a T. torquatus population monitored for 12 years. Survival was not associated with climate seasonality, and instead minor fluctuations were related to temperature extremes. Recruitment benefited from long-term fire effects and had a strong seasonal component accounting for most of the variation in the population. Climate deviations caused severe changes in the number of recruits each year, with an overall negative effect on population growth. Population growth was more sensitive to recruitment than to survival, resulting in a sharp population decline over the study period. Tropidurus torquatus, and perhaps other species that evolved in similar conditions, can mitigate the demographic effects of fire but lack mechanisms to deal with climate deviation occurring over relatively short periods.

Influences of submerged plant collapse on diet composition, breadth, and overlap among four crane species at Poyang Lake, China

Background

Interannual variation in resource abundance has become more unpredictable, and food shortages have increasingly occurred in the recent decades. However, compared to seasonal fluctuations in resource abundance, the influences of interannual variation in resource abundance on the dietary niches of consumers remain poorly understood. Poyang Lake, China, is a very important wintering ground for the globally endangered Siberian Crane (Leucogeranus leucogeranus), White-naped Crane (Grus vipio), and Hooded Crane (G. monacha), as well as the non-endangered Eurasian Crane (G. grus). Tubers of Vallisneria spp., the dominant submerged macrophytes at Poyang Lake, is an important food for cranes. Nevertheless, submerged macrophytes have experienced serious degradation recently. In this study, we used metabarcoding technology to explore the consequences of Vallisneria tuber collapse on the diet compositions, breadths, and overlaps of the four crane species based on fecal samples collected in winter 2017 (a year with tuber collapse) and winter 2018 (a year with high tuber abundance).

Results

Compared to previous studies, our study elucidates crane diets in an unprecedented level of detail. Vallisneria tubers was confirmed as an important food source of cranes. Surprisingly, the grassland plant Polygonum criopolitanum was also found to be an important food source in the feces of cranes. Agricultural fields were important foraging sites for Siberian Cranes, White-naped Cranes, and Hooded Cranes, providing foods that allowed them to survive in winters with natural food shortages. However, the three crane species preferred natural wetlands to agricultural fields when the abundance of natural foods was high. The abundance of Vallisneria tubers, and probably P. criopolitanum, greatly influenced the dietary compositions, breadths and overlap of cranes. During periods of preferred resource shortage, White-naped Cranes and Hooded Cranes widened their dietary niches, while Siberian Cranes maintained a stable niche width. The dietary niche overlap among crane species increased substantially under conditions of plentiful preferred food resources.

Conclusions

Our study emphasizes the superior quality of natural wetlands compared to agricultural fields as foraging habitats for cranes. To provide safer and better foraging areas for cranes, it is urgent to restore the submerged plants at Poyang Lake. While high dietary niche overlap is often interpreted as intense interspecific competition, our study highlights the importance of taking food abundance into account.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12983-021-00411-2.

Cascading effects of climate variability on the breeding success of an edge population of an apex predator

Large-scale environmental forces can influence biodiversity at different levels of biological organization. Climate, in particular, is often associated with species distributions and diversity gradients. However, its mechanistic link to population dynamics is still poorly understood. Here, we unravelled the full mechanistic path by which a climatic driver, the Atlantic trade winds, determines the viability of a bird population. We monitored the breeding population of Eleonora's falcons in the Canary Islands for over a decade (2007-2017) and integrated different methods and data to reconstruct how the availability of their prey (migratory birds) is regulated by trade winds. We tracked foraging movements of breeding adults using GPS, monitored departure of migratory birds using weather radar and simulated their migration trajectories using an individual-based, spatially explicit model. We demonstrate that regional easterly winds regulate the flux of migratory birds that is available to hunting falcons, determining food availability for their chicks and consequent breeding success. By reconstructing how migratory birds are pushed towards the Canary Islands by trade winds, we explain most of the variation (up to 86%) in annual productivity for over a decade. This study unequivocally illustrates how a climatic driver can influence local-scale demographic processes while providing novel evidence of wind as a major determinant of population fitness in a top predator.

Vulnerability of a top marine predator to coastal storms: a relationship between hydrodynamic drivers and stranding rates of newborn pinnipeds

Coastal storms have increased in recent decades, affecting many species, including the South American sea lion (Otaria byronia). Reports of stranded sea lion pups are becoming common in Chile, presumably due to the increase in the frequency and intensity of coastal storms. To validate this assumption, a 10-year database was built by coupling wave generation and coastal propagation models to correlate pure wave parameters (significant wave height Hs, peak period Tp, normalized wave power Hs² Tp) and wave parameters including the tidal level (maximum surface elevation η, modified wave power η² Tp) with records of stranded pups in Cobquecura, the largest breeding colony in central Chile. The correlation between the number of pups stranded per day and wave parameters in the first half of January and the last half of February is poor, while they are stronger for the second half of January and the first half of February. The higher number of stranded pups coincide with coastal storms with normalized wave power values exceeding a threshold of 100 m²/s. Conversely, below this threshold there is wide dispersion between the number of strandings and wave parameters. Identifying wave parameter thresholds could be used to predict when newborn pups will be most affected by coastal storms, and thus help institutions to develop remediation techniques for animals at risk.

Sexual Dimorphism and Foraging Trips of the Laysan Albatross (Phoebastria immutabilis) on Guadalupe Island

Simple Summary

We evaluated the existence of sexual dimorphism in Laysan albatross from Guadalupe Island. Males were larger than females across all the morphological variables analyzed. We created a sex predictor model for Laysan albatross individuals that requires a minimum number of input variables and will considerably reduce the handling times and field costs of future studies. Laysan albatross foraging trips were recorded during their breeding season over multiple years and no significant differences were found between the distances travelled by males versus females.

Abstract

Sexual dimorphism in the Laysan albatross (Phoebastria immutabilis) on Guadalupe Island was evaluated during the breeding seasons of 2015–2018 by measuring and comparing 10 morphological attributes: cranial length, bill length, nostril length, cranial width, bill height, bill width, tarsus length, closed wing length, opened wing length, and wingspan length in reproductive adults (n = 135). Males were larger than females across all traits (Student’s t-test, p < 0.05, p < 0.05). We created a logistic model using stepwise regression to predict sex based on morphological variables. This model indicated four significant morphological predictor variables (z < 0.05) and was able to successfully predict the sex of P. immutabilis individuals in more than 90% of the cases. Based on these predictor variables, a web app was developed to determine the sex of the Laysan albatross in the field, providing a non-invasive method for rapid data collection that reduces costs and handling times while improving conservation efforts. We tracked Laysan albatross (n = 36) during breeding seasons and found no significant differences between females and males for either trip length (GLMM, F = 0.017, DF = 1, 1, p = 0.917 > 0.05) or maximum trip distance (GLMM, F = 0.374, DF = 1, 1, p = 0.651 > 0.05). Our results suggest that both sexes show a strong preference to travel to highly productive coastal waters northeast of the breeding colony that are influenced by the California Current. The present research will serve to establish a baseline to protect this species on Guadalupe Island and highlights the importance of understanding sexual dimorphism in at-risk seabird species.

Environmental and demographic drivers of male mating success vary across sequential reproductive episodes in a polygynous breeder

Ecological and social factors underpinning the inequality of male mating success in animal societies can be related to sex ratio, sexual conflict between breeders, effects of nonbreeders, resource dispersion, climatic conditions, and the various sequential stages of mating competition that constitute the sexual selection process. Here, we conducted an individual-based study to investigate how local resource availability and demography interact with annual climate conditions to determine the degree of male mating inequality, and thus opportunity for sexual selection across two sequential reproductive episodes (harem and subsequent mate acquisition) in a naturally regulated (feral) horse population in Sable Island National Park Preserve, Canada. Using a 5-year, spatially explicit, mark-resight dataset and hierarchical mixed-effects linear modeling, we evaluated the influence of adult sex ratio (ASR) on mating success and then tested for effects of freshwater availability, density, unpaired male abundance, and precipitation during each breeding season. Unpaired male abundance, freshwater availability, and ASR differed in their effects on male mating success according to year and selection episode. Opportunity for sexual selection in males associated with harem acquisition increased with ASR, and unpaired male abundance further explained weather-related interannual variation after accounting for ASR. In contrast, once a harem was secured, ASR had little effect on male mating inequality in regard to acquiring additional females, while interannual variation in mating inequality increased with decreasing freshwater availability. Our findings show that local demography, resource availability, and weather effect opportunity for sexual selection in males differently depending on selection episode, and can attenuate or accentuate effects of ASR.

Cyclone avoidance behaviour by foraging seabirds

In the context of climate change, how extreme climatic events, such as cyclones, will affect the foraging abilities of marine vertebrates is still poorly known. During the course of a study on the foraging behaviour of two tropical seabirds, red-footed boobies and great frigatebirds, several cyclones have affected their breeding grounds and foraging zones, allowing us to study their response to extreme wind conditions. We examined whether adults and young naïve birds were able to predict the arrival of a cyclone and behave accordingly to reduce mortality risks and optimise foraging. We show that when a cyclone approached, juveniles and adults of the two species differed in their decisions to leave the colony for the sea. When the winds reached gale force, the juveniles of both species and adult frigatebirds remained at the colony, whereas adult boobies continued their foraging routine. The mortality of the individuals remaining on land remained limited. When encountering at-sea gale conditions, adult birds were able to avoid the centre of the low pressure systems and moved westward to bypass the route of the cyclones and circumvent the moving cyclone. Frigatebirds climb to high altitudes when close to the eye of the cyclone to bypass it at high speeds. These movements likely reduce the mortality risk at sea but can temporarily cause birds to move outside their normal range at sea or over land masses. We discuss the potential consequences of an increase in cyclonic conditions on seabird populations.

Inadequacy of typical physiological experimental protocols for investigating consequences of stochastic weather events emerging from global warming

Increasingly variable, extreme, and nonpredictable weather events are predicted to accompany climate change, and such weather events will especially affect temperate, terrestrial environments. Yet, typical protocols in comparative physiology that examine environmental change typically employ simple step-wise changes in the experimental stressor of interest (e.g., temperature, water availability, oxygen, nutrition). Such protocols fall short of mimicking actual natural environments and may be inadequate for fully exploring the physiological effects of stochastic, extreme weather events. Indeed, numerous studies from the field of thermal biology, especially, indicate nonlinear and sometimes counterintuitive findings associated with variable and fluctuating (but rarely truly stochastic) protocols for temperature change. This Perspective article suggests that alternative experimental protocols should be employed that go beyond step-wise protocols and even beyond variable protocols employing circadian rhythms, for example, to those that actually embrace nonpredictable elements. Such protocols, though admittedly more difficult to implement, are more likely to reveal the capabilities (and, importantly, the limitations) of animals experiencing weather, as distinct from climate. While some possible protocols involving stochasticity are described as examples to stimulate additional thought on experimental design, the overall goal of this Perspective article is to encourage comparative physiologists to entertain incorporation of nonpredictable experimental conditions as they design future experimental protocols.

El Niño/Southern Oscillation-driven rainfall pulse amplifies predation by owls on seabirds via apparent competition with mice

Most approaches for assessing species vulnerability to climate change have focused on direct impacts via abiotic changes rather than indirect impacts mediated by changes in species interactions. Changes in rainfall regimes may influence species interactions from the bottom-up by increasing primary productivity in arid environments, but subsequently lead to less predictable top-down effects. Our study demonstrates how the effects of an EL Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO)-driven rainfall pulse ricochets along a chain of interactions between marine and terrestrial food webs, leading to enhanced predation of a vulnerable marine predator on its island breeding grounds. On Santa Barbara Island, barn owls (Tyto alba) are the main predator of a nocturnal seabird, the Scripps's murrelet (Synthliboramphus scrippsi), as well as an endemic deer mouse. We followed the links between rainfall, normalized difference vegetation index and subsequent peaks in mouse and owl abundance. After the mouse population declined steeply, there was approximately 15-fold increase in the number of murrelets killed by owls. We also simulated these dynamics with a mathematical model and demonstrate that bottom-up resource pulses can lead to subsequent declines in alternative prey. Our study highlights the need for understanding how species interactions will change with shifting rainfall patterns through the effects of ENSO under global change.

Impact of rising sea levels on Australian fur seals

Global warming is leading to many unprecedented changes in the ocean-climate system. Sea levels are rising at an increasing rate and are amplifying the impact of storm surges along coastlines. As variability in the timing and strength of storm surges has been shown to affect pup mortality in the Australian fur seal (Arctocephalus pusillus doriferus), there is a need to identify the potential impacts of increased sea level and storm surges on the breeding areas of this important marine predator in Bass Strait, south-eastern Australia. Using high-resolution aerial photography and topographic data, the present study assessed the impacts of future inundation levels on both current and potential breeding habitats at each colony. Inundation from storm surges, based on a predicted rise in sea level, was modeled at each colony from 2012 to 2100. As sea level increases, progressively less severe storm surge conditions will be required to exceed current inundation levels and, thus, have the potential for greater impacts on pup mortality at Australian fur seal colonies. The results of the present study indicate that by 2100, a 1-in-10 year storm will inundate more habitat on average than a present-day 1-in-100 year storm. The study highlights the site-specific nature of storm surge impacts, and in particular the importance of local colony topography and surrounding bathymetry with small, low-lying colonies impacted the most. An increased severity of storm surges will result in either an increase in pup mortality rates associated with storm surges, or the dispersal of individuals to higher ground and/or new colonies.

Transient LTRE analysis reveals the demographic and trait-mediated processes that buffer population growth

Temporal variation in environmental conditions affects population growth directly via its impact on vital rates, and indirectly through induced variation in demographic structure and phenotypic trait distributions. We currently know very little about how these processes jointly mediate population responses to their environment. To address this gap, we develop a general transient life table response experiment (LTRE) which partitions the contributions to population growth arising from variation in (1) survival and reproduction, (2) demographic structure, (3) trait values and (4) climatic drivers. We apply the LTRE to a population of yellow‐bellied marmots (Marmota flaviventer) to demonstrate the impact of demographic and trait‐mediated processes. Our analysis provides a new perspective on demographic buffering, which may be a more subtle phenomena than is currently assumed. The new LTRE framework presents opportunities to improve our understanding of how trait variation influences population dynamics and adaptation in stochastic environments.

Complex demographic heterogeneity from anthropogenic impacts in a coastal marine predator

Environmental drivers, including anthropogenic impacts, affect vital rates of organisms. Nevertheless, the influence of these drivers may depend on the physical features of the habitat and how they affect life history strategies depending on individual covariates such as age and sex. Here, the long-term monitoring (1994-2014) of marked European Shags in eight colonies in two regions with different ecological features, such as foraging habitat, allowed us to test several biological hypotheses about how survival changes by age and sex in each region by means of multi-event capture-recapture modeling. Impacts included fishing practices and bycatch, invasive introduced carnivores and the severe Prestige oil spill. Adult survival was constant but, unexpectedly, it was different between sexes. This difference was opposite in each region. The impact of the oil spill on survival was important only for adults (especially for females) in one region and lasted a single year. Juvenile survival was time dependent but this variability was not synchronized between regions, suggesting a strong signal of regional environmental variability. Mortality due to bycatch was also different between sex, age and region. Interestingly the results showed that the size of the fishing fleet is not necessarily a good proxy for assessing the impact of bycatch mortality, which may be more dependent on the fishing grounds and the fishing gears employed in each season of the year. Anthropogenic impacts affected survival differently by age and sex, which was expected for a long-lived organism with sexual size dimorphism. Strikingly, these differences varied depending on the region, indicating that habitat heterogeneity is demographically important to how environmental variability (including anthropogenic impacts) and resilience influence population dynamics.

Additive effects of climate and fisheries drive ongoing declines in multiple albatross species

Environmental and anthropogenic factors often drive population declines in top predators, but how their influences may combine remains unclear. Albatrosses are particularly threatened. They breed in fast-changing environments, and their extensive foraging ranges expose them to incidental mortality (bycatch) in multiple fisheries. The albatross community at South Georgia includes globally important populations of three species that have declined by 40-60% over the last 35 years. We used three steps to deeply understand the drivers of such dramatic changes: (i) describe fundamental demographic rates using multievent models, (ii) determine demographic drivers of population growth using matrix models, and (iii) identify environmental and anthropogenic drivers using ANOVAs. Each species was affected by different processes and threats in their foraging areas during the breeding and nonbreeding seasons. There was evidence for two kinds of combined environmental and anthropogenic effects. The first was sequential; in wandering and black-browed albatrosses, high levels of bycatch have reduced juvenile and adult survival, then increased temperature, reduced sea-ice cover, and stronger winds are affecting the population recovery potential. The second was additive; in gray-headed albatrosses, not only did bycatch impact adult survival but also this impact was exacerbated by lower food availability in years following El Niño events. This emphasizes the need for much improved implementation of mitigation measures in fisheries and better enforcement of compliance. We hope our results not only help focus future management actions for these populations but also demonstrate the power of the modelling approach for assessing impacts of environmental and anthropogenic drivers in wild animal populations.

Effect of extreme sea surface temperature events on the demography of an age-structured albatross population

Climate changes include concurrent changes in environmental mean, variance and extremes, and it is challenging to understand their respective impact on wild populations, especially when contrasted age-dependent responses to climate occur. We assessed how changes in mean and standard deviation of sea surface temperature (SST), frequency and magnitude of warm SST extreme climatic events (ECE) influenced the stochastic population growth rate log(λs) and age structure of a black-browed albatross population. For changes in SST around historical levels observed since 1982, changes in standard deviation had a larger (threefold) and negative impact on log(λs) compared to changes in mean. By contrast, the mean had a positive impact on log(λs). The historical SST mean was lower than the optimal SST value for which log(λs) was maximized. Thus, a larger environmental mean increased the occurrence of SST close to this optimum that buffered the negative effect of ECE. This 'climate safety margin' (i.e. difference between optimal and historical climatic conditions) and the specific shape of the population growth rate response to climate for a species determine how ECE affect the population. For a wider range in SST, both the mean and standard deviation had negative impact on log(λs), with changes in the mean having a greater effect than the standard deviation. Furthermore, around SST historical levels increases in either mean or standard deviation of the SST distribution led to a younger population, with potentially important conservation implications for black-browed albatrosses.This article is part of the themed issue 'Behavioural, ecological and evolutionary responses to extreme climatic events'.

Reproductive performance of resident and migrant males, females and pairs in a partially migratory bird

Quantifying among‐individual variation in life‐history strategies, and associated variation in reproductive performance and resulting demographic structure, is key to understanding and predicting population dynamics and life‐history evolution. Partial migration, where populations comprise a mixture of resident and seasonally migrant individuals, constitutes a dimension of life‐history variation that could be associated with substantial variation in reproductive performance. However, such variation has rarely been quantified due to the challenge of measuring reproduction and migration across a sufficient number of seasonally mobile males and females.

We used intensive winter (non‐breeding season) resightings of colour‐ringed adult European shags (Phalacrocorax aristotelis) from a known breeding colony to identify resident and migrant individuals. We tested whether two aspects of annual reproductive performance, brood hatch date and breeding success, differed between resident and migrant males, females and breeding pairs observed across three consecutive winters and breeding seasons.

The sex ratios of observed resident and migrant shags did not significantly differ from each other or from 1:1, suggesting that both sexes are partially migratory and that migration was not sex‐biased across surveyed areas.

Individual resident males and females hatched their broods 6 days earlier and fledged 0.2 more chicks per year than migrant males and females on average. Resident individuals of both sexes therefore had higher breeding success than migrants.

Hatch date and breeding success also varied with a pair's joint migratory strategy such that resident–resident pairs hatched their broods 12 days earlier than migrant–migrant pairs, and fledged 0.7 more chicks per year on average. However, there was no evidence of assortative pairing with respect to migratory strategy: observed frequencies of migrant–migrant and resident–resident pairs did not differ from those expected given random pairing.

These data demonstrate substantial variation in two key aspects of reproductive performance associated with the migratory strategies of males, females and breeding pairs within a partially migratory population. These patterns could reflect direct and/or indirect mechanisms, but imply that individual variation in migratory strategy and variation in pairing among residents and migrants could influence selection on migration and drive complex population and evolutionary dynamics.

Extreme climatic events constrain space use and survival of a ground-nesting bird

Two fundamental issues in ecology are understanding what influences the distribution and abundance of organisms through space and time. While it is well established that broad-scale patterns of abiotic and biotic conditions affect organisms' distributions and population fluctuations, discrete events may be important drivers of space use, survival, and persistence. These discrete extreme climatic events can constrain populations and space use at fine scales beyond that which is typically measured in ecological studies. Recently, a growing body of literature has identified thermal stress as a potential mechanism in determining space use and survival. We sought to determine how ambient temperature at fine temporal scales affected survival and space use for a ground-nesting quail species (Colinus virginianus; northern bobwhite). We modeled space use across an ambient temperature gradient (ranging from -20 to 38 °C) through a maxent algorithm. We also used Andersen-Gill proportional hazard models to assess the influence of ambient temperature-related variables on survival through time. Estimated available useable space ranged from 18.6% to 57.1% of the landscape depending on ambient temperature. The lowest and highest ambient temperature categories (<-15 °C and >35 °C, respectively) were associated with the least amount of estimated useable space (18.6% and 24.6%, respectively). Range overlap analysis indicated dissimilarity in areas where Colinus virginianus were restricted during times of thermal extremes (range overlap = 0.38). This suggests that habitat under a given condition is not necessarily a habitat under alternative conditions. Further, we found survival was most influenced by weekly minimum ambient temperatures. Our results demonstrate that ecological constraints can occur along a thermal gradient and that understanding the effects of these discrete events and how they change over time may be more important to conservation of organisms than are average and broad-scale conditions as typically measured in ecological studies.

Contrasting effects of tropical cyclones on the annual survival of a pelagic seabird in the Indian Ocean

Tropical cyclones are renowned for their destructive nature and are an important feature of marine and coastal tropical ecosystems. Over the last 40 years, their intensity, frequency and tracks have changed, partly in response to ocean warming, and future predictions indicate that these trends are likely to continue with potential consequences for human populations and coastal ecosystems. However, our understanding of how tropical cyclones currently affect marine biodiversity, and pelagic species in particular, is limited. For seabirds, the impacts of cyclones are known to be detrimental at breeding colonies, but impacts on the annual survival of pelagic adults and juveniles remain largely unexplored and no study has simultaneously explored the direct impacts of cyclones on different life-history stages across the annual life cycle. We used a 20-year data set on tropical cyclones in the Indian Ocean, tracking data from 122 Round Island petrels and long-term capture-mark-recapture data to explore the impacts of tropical cyclones on the survival of adult and juvenile (first year) petrels during both the breeding and migration periods. The tracking data showed that juvenile and adult Round Island petrels utilize the three cyclone regions of the Indian Ocean and were potentially exposed to cyclones for a substantial part of their annual cycle. However, only juvenile petrel survival was affected by cyclone activity; negatively by a strong cyclone in the vicinity of the breeding colony and positively by increasing cyclone activity in the Northern Indian Ocean where they spend the majority of their first year at sea. These contrasting effects raise the intriguing prospect that the projected changes in cyclones under current climate change scenarios may have positive as well as the more commonly perceived negative impacts on marine biodiversity.

Genetic structure in the European endemic seabird, Phalacrocorax aristotelis, shaped by a complex interaction of historical and contemporary, physical and nonphysical drivers

Geographically separated populations tend to be less connected by gene flow, as a result of physical or nonphysical barriers preventing dispersal, and this can lead to genetic structure. In this context, highly mobile organisms such as seabirds are interesting because the small effect of physical barriers means nonphysical ones may be relatively more important. Here, we use microsatellite and mitochondrial data to explore the genetic structure and phylogeography of Atlantic and Mediterranean populations of a European endemic seabird, the European shag, Phalacrocorax aristotelis, and identify the primary drivers of their diversification. Analyses of mitochondrial markers revealed three phylogenetic lineages grouping the North Atlantic, Spanish/Corsican and eastern Mediterranean populations, apparently arising from fragmentation during the Pleistocene followed by range expansion. These traces of historical fragmentation were also evident in the genetic structure estimated by microsatellite markers, despite significant contemporary gene flow among adjacent populations. Stronger genetic structure, probably promoted by landscape, philopatry and local adaptation, was found among distant populations and those separated by physical and ecological barriers. This study highlights the enduring effect of Pleistocene climatic changes on shag populations, especially within the Mediterranean Basin, and suggests a role for cryptic northern refugia, as well as known southern refugia, on the genetic structure of European seabirds. Finally, it outlines how contemporary ecological barriers and behavioural traits may maintain population divergence, despite long-distance dispersal triggered by extreme environmental conditions (e.g. population crashes).

Effects of ambient air temperature, humidity and rainfall on annual survival of adult little penguins Eudyptula minor in southeastern Australia

Seabirds are subject to the influences of local climate variables during periods of land-based activities such as breeding and, for some species, moult; particularly if they undergo a catastrophic moult (complete simultaneous moult) as do penguins. We investigated potential relationships between adult penguin survival and land-based climate variables (ambient air temperature, humidity and rainfall) using 46 years of mark-recapture data of little penguins Eudyptula minor gathered at a breeding colony on Phillip Island in southeastern Australia. Our results showed that adult penguin survival had a stronger association with land-based climate variables during the moult period, when birds were unable to go to sea for up to 3 weeks, than during the breeding period, when birds could sacrifice breeding success in favour of survival. Annual adult survival probability was positively associated with humidity during moult and negatively associated with rainfall during moult. Prolonged heat during breeding and moult had a negative association with annual adult survival. Local climate projections suggest increasing days of high temperatures, fewer days of rainfall which will result in more droughts (and by implication, lower humidity) and more extreme rainfall events. All of these predicted climate changes are expected to have a negative impact on adult penguin survival.