Impact of temperature and precipitation on propagation of intestinal schistosomiasis in an irrigated region in Ethiopia: suitability of satellite datasets

Exploring the interplay between climate change and schistosomiasis transmission dynamics

Schistosomiasis, a neglected tropical disease caused by parasitic worms, poses a major public health challenge in economically disadvantaged regions, especially in Sub-Saharan Africa. Climate factors, such as temperature and rainfall patterns, play a crucial role in the transmission dynamics of the disease. This study presents a deterministic model that aims to evaluate the temporal and seasonal transmission dynamics of schistosomiasis by examining the influence of temperature and rainfall over time. Equilibrium states are examined to ascertain their existence and stability employing the center manifold theory, while the basic reproduction number is calculated using the next-generation technique. To validate the model's applicability, demographic and climatological data from Uganda, Kenya, and Tanzania, which are endemic East African countries situated in the tropical region, are utilized as a case study region. The findings of this study provide evidence that the transmission of schistosomiasis in human populations is significantly influenced by seasonal and monthly variations, with incidence rates varying across countries depending on the frequency of temperature and rainfall. Consequently, the region is marked by both schistosomiasis emergencies and re-emergences. Specifically, it is observed that monthly mean temperatures within the range of 22-27 °C create favorable conditions for the development of schistosomiasis and have a positive impact on the reproduction numbers. On the other hand, monthly maximum temperatures ranging from 27 to 33 °C have an adverse effect on transmission. Furthermore, through sensitivity analysis, it is projected that by the year 2050, factors such as the recruitment rate of snails, the presence of parasite egg-containing stools, and the rate of miracidia shedding per parasite egg will contribute significantly to the occurrence and control of schistosomiasis infections. This study highlights the significant influence of seasonal and monthly variations, driven by temperature and rainfall patterns, on the transmission dynamics of schistosomiasis. These findings underscore the importance of considering climate factors in the control and prevention strategies of schistosomiasis. Additionally, the projected impact of various factors on schistosomiasis infections by 2050 emphasizes the need for proactive measures to mitigate the disease's impact on vulnerable populations. Overall, this research provides valuable insights to anticipate future challenges and devise adaptive measures to address schistosomiasis transmission patterns.

Modelling the historical distribution of schistosomiasis-transmitting snails in South Africa using ecological niche models

Schistosomiasis is a vector-borne disease transmitted by freshwater snails and is prevalent in rural areas with poor sanitation and no access to tap water. Three snail species are known to transmit schistosomiasis in South Africa (SA), namely Biomphalaria pfeifferi, Bulinus globosus and Bulinus africanus. In 2003, a predicted prevalence of 70% was reported in tropical climates in SA. Temperature and rainfall variability can alter schistosomiasis-transmitting snails' development by increasing or decreasing their abundance and geographical distribution. This study aimed to map the historical distribution of schistosomiasis from 1950 to 2006 in SA. The snail sampling data were obtained from the historical National Snail Freshwater Collection (NFSC). Bioclimatic variables were extracted using ERA 5 reanalysis data provided by the Copernicus Climate Change Service. In this study, we used 19 bioclimatic and four soil variables. The temporal aggregation was the mean climatological period pre-calculated over the 40-year reference period with a spatial resolution of 0.5° x 0.5°. Multicollinearity was reduced by calculating the Variance Inflation Factor Core (VIF), and highly correlated variables (> 0.85) were excluded. To obtain an "ensemble" and avoid the integration of weak models, we averaged predictions using the True Skill Statistical (TSS) method. Results showed that the ensemble model achieved the highest Area Under the Curve (AUC) scores (0.99). For B. africanus, precipitation-related variables contributed to determining the suitability for schistosomiasis. Temperature and precipitation-related variables influenced the distribution of B. globosus in all three models. Biomphalaria pfeifferi showed that Temperature Seasonality (bio4) contributed the most (47%) in all three models. According to the models, suitable areas for transmitting schistosomiasis were in the eastern regions of South Africa. Temperature and rainfall can impact the transmission and distribution of schistosomiasis in SA. The results will enable us to develop future projections for Schistosoma in SA based on climate scenarios.

Abundance, Distribution, and Diversity of Freshwater Snail and Prevalences of Their Infection by Cercaria of Fasciola gigantica and Schistosoma spp at Mayo-Vreck River, Far North Region of Cameroon

Malacological and parasitological studies were conducted from April 2020 to March 2021 to determine the abundance and distribution of molluscs and cercariae of Schistosoma spp and Fasciola gigantica. Collected molluscs are exposed to strong light to induce cercarial release. Mollusc densities were higher at station 1 (Gamak) than in station 8 (Patakai), with Bellamya unicolor and Biomphalaria pfeifferi more abundant and Bulinus truncatus, B. tropicus, and B. globosus less abundant. The overall prevalence of cercariae (19.87%) is higher in station 3 (Yaye orchard), station 9 (Gougni), station 4 (Madiogo), station 5 (Madiogo pasture), and station 6 (Ziam 3). It varies significantly between 15.76% in station 8 and 25.77% in station 3, between 8.48% in B. truncatus and 25.53% in B. globosus, and between 19.27% for cercariae of Schistosoma spp and 21.60% for those of F. gigantica. Cercarial emissions in L. natalensis and B. pfeifferi were higher in hot and cold dry seasons; on the other hand, cercarial emissions in B. globosus were higher in hot dry seasons (31.48%) and rainy seasons (23.38%). Emissions of cercariae from S. haematobium are related to areas of human activity and defecation, while those of F. gigantica in L. natalensis, Schistosoma haematobium in B. tropicus, and S. mansoni in B. pfeifferi are related to grazing areas. Mayo-Vreck is a site that favors the endemicity of fascioliasis and human schistosomiasis.

Open-source environmental data as an alternative to snail surveys to assess schistosomiasis risk in areas approaching elimination

BACKGROUND

Although the presence of intermediate snails is a necessary condition for local schistosomiasis transmission to occur, using them as surveillance targets in areas approaching elimination is challenging because the patchy and dynamic quality of snail host habitats makes collecting and testing snails labor-intensive. Meanwhile, geospatial analyses that rely on remotely sensed data are becoming popular tools for identifying environmental conditions that contribute to pathogen emergence and persistence.

METHODS

In this study, we assessed whether open-source environmental data can be used to predict the presence of human Schistosoma japonicum infections among households with a similar or improved degree of accuracy compared to prediction models developed using data from comprehensive snail surveys. To do this, we used infection data collected from rural communities in Southwestern China in 2016 to develop and compare the predictive performance of two Random Forest machine learning models: one built using snail survey data, and one using open-source environmental data.

RESULTS

The environmental data models outperformed the snail data models in predicting household S. japonicum infection with an estimated accuracy and Cohen's kappa value of 0.89 and 0.49, respectively, in the environmental model, compared to an accuracy and kappa of 0.86 and 0.37 for the snail model. The Normalized Difference in Water Index (an indicator of surface water presence) within half to one kilometer of the home and the distance from the home to the nearest road were among the top performing predictors in our final model. Homes were more likely to have infected residents if they were further from roads, or nearer to waterways.

CONCLUSION

Our results suggest that in low-transmission environments, leveraging open-source environmental data can yield more accurate identification of pockets of human infection than using snail surveys. Furthermore, the variable importance measures from our models point to aspects of the local environment that may indicate increased risk of schistosomiasis. For example, households were more likely to have infected residents if they were further from roads or were surrounded by more surface water, highlighting areas to target in future surveillance and control efforts.

Impact of precipitation on the prevalence of schistosomiasis mekongi in Lao PDR: Structural equation modelling using Earth observation satellite data

Increasing attention is being given to the effect of climate change on schistosomiasis, but the impact is currently unknown. As the intermediate snail host (Neotricula aperta) of Schistosoma mekongi inhabits the Mekong River, it is thought that environmental factors affecting the area of water will have an impact on the occurrence of schistosomiasis mekongi. The aim of the present study was to assess the impact of precipitation on the prevalence of human schistosomiasis mekongi using epidemiological data and Earth observation satellite data in Khong district, Champasak province, Lao PDR. Structural equation modelling (SEM) using epidemiological data and Earth observation satellite data was conducted to determine the factors associated with the number of schistosomiasis mekongi patients. As a result, SEM identified 3 significant factors independently associated with schistosomiasis mekongi: (1) a negative association with mass drug administration (MDA); (2) negative association with total precipitation per year; and (3) positive association with precipitation during the dry season. Precisely, regardless of MDA, the increase in total yearly precipitation was suggested to decrease the number of schistosomiasis patients, whereas an increase in precipitation in the dry season increased the number of schistosomiasis patients. This is probably because when total precipitation increases, the water level of the Mekong River rises, thus decreasing the density of infected larvae, cercaria, in the water, and the frequency of humans entering the river would also decrease. In contrast, when precipitation in the dry season is higher, the water level of the Mekong River also rises, which expands the snail habitant, and thus water contact between humans and the snails would also increase. The present study results suggest that increasing precipitation would impact the prevalence of schistosomiasis both positively and negatively, and precipitation should also be considered in the policy to eliminate schistosomiasis mekongi in Lao PDR.

The epidemiology of Schistosoma mansoni in the Lake Tana Basin (Ethiopia): Review with retrospective data analyses

Schistosoma mansoni is one of the major waterborne diseases grouped underwater based Neglected Tropical Diseases in Africa. In Ethiopia, the Lake Tana Basin has favorable environment (temperature and water) for S. mansoni transmission. The prevalence of S. mansoni varies among regions based on environmental conditions and human water contact. Therefore, this review was conducted to identify hot spots districts and determine the prevailing S. mansoni prevalence in the Lake Tana Basin. Research articles published in English in the last 65 years were searched from Google scholar, PubMed, and Web of science. In addition, four-year S. mansoni data that were reported in health care facilities were extracted from health management information system in 61 districts of the Lake Tana Basin. In total, 43 research articles on S. mansoni that met the inclusion criteria and were published between 1957 and 2022. Over 98% of the articles were cross-sectional studies, while five articles addressed malacological studies. Among 61 districts, 19 (31%) were identified as hotspot districts for S. mansoni infection in the Lake Tana Basin. S. mansoni prevalence and the abundance of its host snail showed spatial and seasonal variations. On average 2000 school children/year attended health care facilities for S. mansoni infection. Swimming habits [adjusted odds ratio (AOR) = 3.2, p = 0.030], irrigation practice (AOR = 3:09, p ≤ 0.001), fishing (AOR = 2:43, p = 0.005) and being male (AOR = 1.74, p = 0.002) were risk factors for contributing to S. mansoni infection. This study showed the spatial and seasonal variations of S. mansoni prevalence and its endemicity in the hottest lowland areas of the Lake Tana Basin. The research articles on S. mansoni had poor geographical coverage. Malacological studies on water bodies, assessments on knowledge and attitude in the community towards S. mansoni transmission are areas of future studies.

Morphological and molecular identification of trematode cercariae related with humans and animal health in freshwater snails from a lake and a dam in Myanmar

Freshwater snails play an essential role in the transmission of trematode parasitic flatworms that can infect wild and domestic animals, as well as humans. This study aimed to investigate the rate of cercarial infections in freshwater snails collected from two study areas, Inlay Lake and Yezin Dam, in Myanmar. A total of 4,740 snail samples were collected from Inlay Lake (n = 3,837) and Yezin Dam (n = 903), and infection rate by cercarial emergence was examined. Cercarial DNA samples were analysed by PCR. Based on morphological characteristics, eleven snail species and eight cercarial types were identified. Snails of Melanoides tuberculata in the family Thiaridae were found as the most abundant, followed by Indoplanorbis exustus of the family Planorbidae, in both study areas. The infection rate by cercarial emergence in snails in Inlay Lake and Yezin Dam was 5.8% (224/3,837) and 48.6% (439/903), respectively. Echinostome cercariae showed the highest infection rate in both study areas. Phylogenetic analysis of cercarial internal transcribed spacer 2 (ITS2) sequences revealed that at least seven cercaria types belonged to five digenean trematode families, two of which were zoonotic trematodes in the families of Opisthorchiidae/Heterophyidae and Schistosomatidae. Furthermore, cercarial 28S ribosomal RNA gene analysis showed that the furcocercous cercariae in Yezin Dam were identified as Schistosoma spindale, a causative agent of ruminant schistosomiasis. This is the first report on zoonotic trematode cercariae in snails in Myanmar. The findings indicate that various snail species act as intermediate host for trematode species that infect aquatic animals, mammals and humans in the country.

Environmental Drivers and Potential Distribution of Schistosoma mansoni Endemic Areas in Ethiopia

In Ethiopia, human schistosomiasis is caused by two species of schistosome, Schistosoma mansoni and S. haematobium, with the former being dominant in the country, causing infections of more than 5 million people and more than 37 million at risk of infection. What is more, new transmission foci for S. mansoni have been reported over the past years in the country, raising concerns over the potential impacts of environmental changes (e.g., climate change) on the disease spread. Knowledge on the distribution of schistosomiasis endemic areas and associated drivers is much needed for surveillance and control programs in the country. Here we report a study that aims to examine environmental determinants underlying the distribution and suitability of S. mansoni endemic areas at the national scale of Ethiopia. The study identified that, among five physical environmental factors examined, soil property, elevation, and climatic factors (e.g., precipitation and temperature) are key factors associated with the distribution of S. mansoni endemic areas. The model predicted that the suitable areas for schistosomiasis transmission are largely distributed in northern, central, and western parts of the country, suggesting a potentially wide distribution of S. mansoni endemic areas. The findings of this study are potentially instrumental to inform public health surveillance, intervention, and future research on schistosomiasis in Ethiopia. The modeling approaches employed in this study may be extended to other schistosomiasis endemic regions and to other vector-borne diseases.

Biogeographical characteristics of Schistosoma mansoni endemic areas in Ethiopia: a systematic review and meta analysis

BACKGROUND

In Ethiopia, schistosomiasis is caused by Schistosoma mansoni and S. haematobium with the former being widespread and more than 4 million people are estimated to be infected by S. mansoni annually with 35 million at risk of infection. Although many school- and community-based epidemiological surveys were conducted over the past decades, the national distribution of schistosomiasis endemic areas and associated socio-environmental determinants remain less well understood. In this paper, we review S. mansoni prevalence of infections and describe key biogeographical characteristics in the endemic areas in Ethiopia.

METHODS

We developed a database of S. mansoni infection surveys in Ethiopia through a systematic review by searching articles published between 1975 and 2019 on electronic online databases including PubMed, ScienceDirect, and Web of Science. A total of 62 studies involving 95 survey locations were included in the analysis. We estimated adjusted prevalence of infection from each survey by considering sensitivity and specificity of diagnostic tests using Bayesian approach. All survey locations were georeferenced and associated environmental and geographical characteristics (e.g. elevation, normalized difference vegetation index, soil properties, wealth index, and climatic data) were described using descriptive statistics and meta-analysis.

RESULTS

The results showed that the surveys exhibited a wide range of adjusted prevalence of infections from 0.5% to 99.5%, and 36.8% of the survey sites had adjusted prevalence of infection higher than 50%. S. mansoni endemic areas were distributed in six regional states with the majority of surveys being in Amhara and Oromia. Endemic sites were found at altitudes from 847.6 to 3141.8 m above sea level, annual mean temperatures between 17.9 and 29.8 ℃, annual cumulative precipitation between 1400 and 1898 mm, normalized difference vegetation index between 0.03 and 0.8, wealth index score between -68 857 and 179 756; and sand, silt, and clay fraction in soil between 19.1-47.2, 23.0-36.7, and 20.0-52.8 g/100 g, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

The distribution of S. mansoni endemic areas and prevalence of infections exhibit remarked environmental and ecological heterogeneities. Future research is needed to understand how much these heterogeneities drive the parasite distribution and transmission in the region.

Host snail species exhibit differential Angiostrongylus cantonensis prevalence and infection intensity across an environmental gradient

Diverse snail species serve as intermediate hosts of the parasitic nematode Angiostrongylus cantonensis, the etiological agent of human neuroangiostrongyliasis. However, levels of A. cantonensis infection prevalence and intensity vary dramatically among these host species. Factors contributing to this variation are largely unknown. Environmental factors, such as precipitation and temperature, have been correlated with overall A. cantonensis infection levels in a locale, but the influence of environment on infection in individual snail species has not been addressed. We identified levels of A. cantonensis prevalence and intensity in 16 species of snails collected from 29 sites along an environmental gradient on the island of Oahu, Hawaii. The relationship between infection levels of individual species and their environment was evaluated using AIC model selection of Generalized Linear Mixed Models incorporating precipitation, temperature, and vegetation cover at each collection site. Our results indicate that different mechanisms drive parasite prevalence and intensity in the intermediate hosts. Overall, snails from rainy, cool, green sites had higher infection levels than snails from dry, hot sites with less green vegetation. Intensity increased at the same rate along the environmental gradient in all species, though at different levels, while the relation between prevalence and environmental variables depended on species. These results have implications for zoonotic transmission, as human infection is a function of infection in the intermediate hosts, ingestion of which is the main pathway of transmission. The probability of human infection is greater in locations with higher rainfall, lower temperature and more vegetation cover because of higher infection prevalence in the gastropod hosts, but this depends on the host species. Moreover, severity of neuroangiostrongyliasis symptoms is likely to be greater in locations with higher rainfall, lower temperature, and more vegetation because of the higher numbers of infectious larvae (infection intensity) in all infected snail species. This study highlights the variation of infection prevalence and intensity in individual gastropod species, the individualistic nature of interactions between host species and their environment, and the implications for human neuroangiostrongyliasis in different environments.

Very low prevalence of Opisthorchis viverrini s.l. cercariae in Bithynia siamensis siamensis snails from the canal network system in the Bangkok Metropolitan Region, Thailand

The liver fluke Opisthorchis viverrini s.l. is associated with a long-term public health problem in Thailand. However, O. viverrini s.l. infection in Bithynia snails in the canal network system (CNS) in the Bangkok Metropolitan Region (BMR) has never been assessed. This study aimed to investigate the occurrence of B. siamensis siamensis and the prevalence of O. viverrini s.l. infection in this snail in the CNS in BMR along with morphological examination and molecular analyses on O. viverrini s.l. cercariae. The snails were randomly sampled from the CNS in all BMR areas from January 2018 to July 2019. Snail specimens were identified and examined for digenean infection by shedding and dissection. The cercariae were identified using morphology and molecular methods, including PCR with a species-specific primer and a Bayesian phylogenetic analysis of ITS2 sequences. Bithynia siamensis siamensis was found in almost all sampling localities, with different quantities and detected frequencies. From a total of 7473 B. s. siamensis specimens, O. viverrini s.l. infections were detected in the Northern Bangkok, Muang Nakhon Pathom, Krathum Baen, and Lam Luk Ka areas with an overall prevalence of 0.05% (4/7473) and prevalence of 0.22% (1/455), 0.21% (1/469), 0.40% (1/253), and 0.16% (1/614) in individual localities with positive snails, respectively. This study is the first investigation of digenean infection in the canal network system-type habitat in Thailand and revealed extremely low O. viverrini s.l. prevalence.

Environmental Predictors of Schistosomiasis Persistent Hotspots following Mass Treatment with Praziquantel

Schistosomiasis control programs rely heavily on mass drug administration (MDA) campaigns with praziquantel for preventative chemotherapy. Areas where the prevalence and/or intensity of schistosomiasis infection remains high even after several rounds of treatment, termed "persistent hotspots" (PHSs), have been identified in trials of MDA effectiveness conducted by the Schistosomiasis Consortium for Operational Research and Evaluation (SCORE) in Kenya, Mozambique, Tanzania, and Côte d'Ivoire. In this analysis, we apply a previously developed set of criteria to classify the PHS status of 531 study villages from five SCORE trials. We then fit logistic regression models to data from SCORE and publically available georeferenced datasets to evaluate the influence of local environmental and population features, pre-intervention infection burden, and treatment scheduling on PHS status in each trial. The frequency of PHS in individual trials ranged from 35.3% to 71.6% in study villages. Significant relationships between PHS status and MDA frequency, distance to freshwater, rainfall, baseline schistosomiasis burden, elevation, land cover type, and village remoteness were each observed in at least one trial, although the strength and direction of these relationships was not always consistent among study sites. These findings suggest that PHSs are driven in part by environmental conditions that modify the risk and frequency of reinfection.

The Effect of Climate Change and the Snail-Schistosome Cycle in Transmission and Bio-Control of Schistosomiasis in Sub-Saharan Africa

In the next century, global warming, due to changes in climatic factors, is expected to have an enormous influence on the interactions between pathogens and their hosts. Over the years, the rate at which vector-borne diseases and their transmission dynamics modify and develop has been shown to be highly dependent to a certain extent on changes in temperature and geographical distribution. Schistosomiasis has been recognized as a tropical and neglected vector-borne disease whose rate of infection has been predicted to be elevated worldwide, especially in sub-Saharan Africa; the region currently with the highest proportion of people at risk, due to changes in climate. This review not only suggests the need to develop an efficient and effective model that will predict Schistosoma spp. population dynamics but seeks to evaluate the effectiveness of several current control strategies. The design of a framework model to predict and accommodate the future incidence of schistosomiasis in human population dynamics in sub-Saharan Africa is proposed. The impact of climate change on schistosomiasis transmission as well as the distribution of several freshwater snails responsible for the transmission of Schistosoma parasites in the region is also reviewed. Lastly, this article advocates for modelling several control mechanisms for schistosomiasis in sub-Saharan Africa so as to tackle the re-infection of the disease, even after treating infected people with praziquantel, the first-line treatment drug for schistosomiasis.

Prevalence and Risk Factors Associated with S. haematobium Egg Excretion during the Dry Season, Six Months following Mass Distribution of Praziquantel (PZQ) in 2017 in the Bafia Health Area, South West Region Cameroon: A Cross-Sectional Study

Background

A selective population mass drug administration of PZQ involving school-aged children was carried out in the Bafia Health Area in April 2017. This study investigated the prevalence, intensity, and factors associated with S. haematobium egg excretion in this foci during the dry season, six months after the chemotherapy campaign.

Methods

A cross-sectional study including 1001 consenting individuals (aged 3-62 years) was carried out in three localities (Ikata, Bafia, and Munyenge) in the Bafia Health Area between November 2017 and January 2018. Information on sociodemographic, stream usage, and contact behaviour was documented. Schistosoma haematobium ova in urine were detected using membrane filtration technique.

Results

The prevalence of S. haematobium egg excretion was 8% with a higher level recorded in Munyenge (13.2%) than Ikata (7.5%) and Bafia (2.8%). The difference was significant (p < 0.001). Equally, Munyenge had the highest infection intensity (36.36 range: 2-200) when compared with Ikata (16.25 range: 2-57) and Bafia (8.0 range: 0-8). Although the age group (5–15 years) was significantly (p < 0.001) associated with more exposure to infested water, this group was less likely (OR: 0.42 95% CI: 0.19-0.91) associated with S. haematobium egg excretion. The risk of egg excretion increased by 4.79 times (95% CI: 2.20-10.41) and 3.68 times (95% CI: 1.59-8.54) among residents in Munyenge and Ikata, respectively. Similarly, frequency to the stream (> thrice/day) was significantly higher (χ² = 58.73; p < 0.001) in Munyenge. Frequent contact (three visits/day) with stream correlated with highest odds of egg excretion (OR: 8.43 95% CI: 3.71-19.13).

Conclusion

The prevalence of S. haematobium egg excretion was low during the dry season. This was most likely attributed to the preventive campaign with PZQ and may parallel low transmission potentials in infested waters during this period.

Variation of Hydrothermal Conditions under Climate Change in Naqu Prefecture, Tibet Plateau, China

Analysis of the suitability of hydrothermal conditions for vegetation growth would benefit the ecological barrier construction, water resources protection and climate change adaptation. The suitability of hydrothermal conditions in Naqu Prefecture was studied based on the spatial displacement of 500 mm precipitation and 2000 °C accumulated temperature contours. Results showed that the 500 mm precipitation contour had a shifting trend toward the southwest, with a 3.3-year and 7.1-year period, respectively, in the longitudinal and latitudinal direction, and the longitude changed suddenly around 1996. The 2000 °C accumulated temperature contour had a shifting trend toward the northwest, with a 1.8-year period and a 7-year sub-period in the longitudinal direction; the longitude had a catastrophe point between 1966 and 1967, while the latitude had a catastrophe point between 2005 and 2006. When located in the same vegetation zone, the annual precipitation in Naqu Prefecture was higher than the national average, while the accumulated temperature was lower than the national average, indicating that areas with suitable hydrothermal conditions suitable for vegetation growth showed a northwestward shift tendency. This research would help to support some recommendations for plants' ecological system protection in alpine areas, and also provide guidelines for climate change adaptation.

Impact of climate change on occupational health and productivity: a systematic literature review focusing on workplace heat

Background:

With climate change, mean annual air temperatures are getting hotter and extreme weather events will become more and more common in most parts of the world.

Objectives:

As part of the EU funded project HEAT-SHIELD we conducted a systematic review to summarize the epidemiological evidence of the effects of global warming-related heat exposure on workers’ health and productivity.

Methods:

Three separate searches, focused, respectively, on: i) heat-related illness (HRI), cardiovascular, respiratory and kidney diseases; ii) traumatic injuries; and iii) vector-borne diseases or vectors distribution, were conducted in PubMed. EMBASE was also consulted to retrieve relevant studies focused on the health effects of climate change. A fourth search strategy to assess the effects on work productivity was conducted both in PubMed and in the SCOPUS database.

Results:

A significant proportion of studies reported findings regarding the Mesoamerican nephropathy issue. This is a disease occurring especially among young and middle-aged male sugarcane workers, without conventional risk factors for chronic kidney disease. For injuries, there is a reversed U-shaped exposure-response relationship between Tmax and overall daily injury claims. Outdoor workers are at increased risk of vector-borne infectious diseases, as a positive correlation between higher air temperatures and current or future expansion of the habitat of vectors is being observed. As for productivity, agriculture and construction are the most studied sectors; a day with temperatures exceeding 32°C can reduce daily labour supply in exposed sectors by up to 14%.

Conclusions:

The present findings should inform development of further research and related health policies in the EU and beyond with regard to protecting working people from the effects of workplace heat during climate change.

Status of Schistosoma mansoni prevalence and intensity of infection in geographically apart endemic localities of Ethiopia: a comparison

Background

Schistosomiasis is one of the chronic and neglected tropical diseases affecting rural communities. Heavy infections contribute to anemia and can retard children's growth, physical activity and cognitive function. This study was conducted in order to determine the prevalence, intensity and variation of Schistosoma mansoni infection among human subjects in geographically apart localities. The prevalence and intensity of Schistosoma mansoni infection was assessed in three geographically apart endemic areas of Ethiopia from May to August 2010 through cross-sectional approach.

Methods

A total of 1073 individuals (528 males and 545 females) were found eligible for the study. Their age ranged from 5–60 years with mean age of 11 years in Wondo Genet, 22 years in Kemissie and 24 years in Sille-Elgo. Small plastic sheets were distributed to the study participants and sizable stool specimens were collected and examined using Kato-Katz method (41.7mg template).

Result

The prevalence of Schistosoma mansoni infection among the study participants in Kemissie, Wondo Genet and Sille-Elgo was 89.6%, 59.9%, and 31.6%, respectively. The highest geometric mean of egg per gram of stool for Kemissie, Wondo Genet and Sille-Elgo was, 5208 and 346, 8472 and 252, 3960 and 91, respectively.

Conclusion

It was observed that there was comparable variation in the prevalence and intensity of infection among the study localities. Moreover, it is indicated that S. mansoni is still an ongoing public health problem which requires integrated intervention activities in the country.

The temporal patterns of disease severity and prevalence in schistosomiasis

Schistosomiasis is one of the most widespread public health problems in the world. In this work, we introduce an eco-epidemiological model for its transmission and dynamics with the purpose of explaining both intra- and inter-annual fluctuations of disease severity and prevalence. The model takes the form of a system of nonlinear differential equations that incorporate biological complexity associated with schistosome's life cycle, including a prepatent period in snails (i.e., the time between initial infection and onset of infectiousness). Nonlinear analysis is used to explore the parametric conditions that produce different temporal patterns (stationary, endemic, periodic, and chaotic). For the time-invariant model, we identify a transcritical and a Hopf bifurcation in the space of the human and snail infection parameters. The first corresponds to the occurrence of an endemic equilibrium, while the latter marks the transition to interannual periodic oscillations. We then investigate a more realistic time-varying model in which fertility of the intermediate host population is assumed to seasonally vary. We show that seasonality can give rise to a cascade of period-doubling bifurcations leading to chaos for larger, though realistic, values of the amplitude of the seasonal variation of fertility.

Challenges in predicting the effects of climate change on Schistosoma mansoni and Schistosoma haematobium transmission potential

Climate change will inevitably influence both the distribution of Schistosoma mansoni and Schistosoma haematobium and the incidence of schistosomiasis in areas where it is currently endemic, and impact on the feasibility of schistosomiasis control and elimination goals. There are several limitations of current models of climate and schistosome transmission, and substantial gaps in empirical data that impair model development. In this review we consider how temperature, precipitation, heat waves, drought, and flooding could impact on snail and schistosome population dynamics. We discuss how widely used degree day models of schistosome development may not be accurate at lower temperatures, and highlight the need for further research to improve our understanding of the relationship between air and water temperature and schistosome and snail development.