Nonlinear selection and the evolution of variances and covariances for continuous characters in an anole

Detecting patterns of correlational selection with sampling error: A simulation study

The adoption of a multivariate perspective of selection implies the existence of multivariate adaptive peaks and pervasive correlational selection that promotes co-adaptation between traits. However, to test for the ubiquity of correlational selection in nature, we must first have a sense of how well can we estimate multivariate nonlinear selection (i.e., the γ-matrix) in the face of sampling error. To explore the sampling properties of estimated γ-matrices, we simulated inidividual traits and fitness under a wide range of sample sizes, using different strengths of correlational selection and of stabilizing selection, combined with different number of traits under selection, different amounts of residual variance in fitness, and distinct patterns of selection. We then ran nonlinear regressions with these simulated datasets to simulate γ-matrices after adding random error to individual fitness. To test how well could we detect the imposed pattern of correlational selection at different sample sizes, we measured the similarity between simulated and imposed γ-matrices. We show that detection of the pattern of correlational selection is highly dependent on the total strength of selection on traits and on the amount of residual variance in fitness. Minimum sample size needs to be at least 500 to precisely estimate the pattern of correlational selection. Furthermore, a pattern of selection in which different sets of traits contribute to different functions is the easiest to diagnose, even when using a large number of traits (10 traits), but with sample sizes in the order of 1000 individuals. Consequently, we recommend working with sets of traits from distinct functional complexes and fitness proxies less prone to effects of environmental and demographic stochasticity to test for correlational selection with lower sample sizes.

Phenotypic response to a major hurricane in Anolis lizards in urban and forest habitats

Little is known about the synergistic impacts of urbanization and hurricanes on synanthropes. We compared morphological traits of the lizard Anolis cristatellus on Puerto Rico sampled before the 2017 category 5 Hurricane Maria and 4 and 11 months after the hurricane. We measured limb lengths, toepad size and the number of subdigital scales, termed lamellae, that facilitate adhesion. We hypothesized that the hurricane should have selected for longer limbs and larger toepads with more lamellae, which are traits that other research has suggested to increase clinging performance. Given prior work demonstrating that urban lizards of this species tend to share this phenotype, we also predicted increased phenotypic overlap between post-hurricane urban–forest pairs. Instead, we found that forest and urban populations alike had smaller body sizes, along with a small size-adjusted decrease in most traits, at 4 months after the hurricane event. Many traits returned to prehurricane values by 11 months post-hurricane. Toe morphology differed in the response to the hurricane between urban and forest populations, with significantly decreased trait values in forest but not in urban populations. This difference could be attributable to the different biomechanical demands of adhesion to anthropogenic substrates compared with natural substrates during intense winds. Overall, more research will be required to understand the impacts of hurricanes on urban species and whether differential natural selection can result.

Of Traits and Trees: Probabilistic Distances under Continuous Trait Models for Dissecting the Interplay among Phylogeny, Model, and Data

Stochastic models of character trait evolution have become a cornerstone of evolutionary biology in an array of contexts. While probabilistic models have been used extensively for statistical inference, they have largely been ignored for the purpose of measuring distances between phylogeny-aware models. Recent contributions to the problem of phylogenetic distance computation have highlighted the importance of explicitly considering evolutionary model parameters and their impacts on molecular sequence data when quantifying dissimilarity between trees. By comparing two phylogenies in terms of their induced probability distributions that are functions of many model parameters, these distances can be more informative than traditional approaches that rely strictly on differences in topology or branch lengths alone. Currently, however, these approaches are designed for comparing models of nucleotide substitution and gene tree distributions, and thus, are unable to address other classes of traits and associated models that may be of interest to evolutionary biologists. Here, we expand the principles of probabilistic phylogenetic distances to compute tree distances under models of continuous trait evolution along a phylogeny. By explicitly considering both the degree of relatedness among species and the evolutionary processes that collectively give rise to character traits, these distances provide a foundation for comparing models and their predictions, and for quantifying the impacts of assuming one phylogenetic background over another while studying the evolution of a particular trait. We demonstrate the properties of these approaches using theory, simulations, and several empirical data sets that highlight potential uses of probabilistic distances in many scenarios. We also introduce an open-source R package named PRDATR for easy application by the scientific community for computing phylogenetic distances under models of character trait evolution.[Brownian motion; comparative methods; phylogeny; quantitative traits.].

Why does allometry evolve so slowly?

Morphological allometry is striking due to its evolutionary conservatism, making it an example of a certain sort of evolutionary stasis. Organisms that vary in size, whether for developmental, environmental, or evolutionary reasons, adopt shapes that are predictable from that size alone. There are two major hypotheses to explain this. It may be that natural selection strongly favors each allometric pattern, or that organisms lack the development and genetic capacity to produce variant shapes for selection to act on. Using a high-throughput system for measuring the size and shape of Drosophila wings, we documented an allometric pattern that has been virtually unchanged for 40 million years. We performed an artificial selection experiment on the static allometric slope within one species. In just 26 generations, we were able to increase the slope from 1.1 to 1.4, and decrease it to 0.8. Once artificial selection was suspended, the slope rapidly evolved back to a value near the initial static slope. This result decisively rules out the hypothesis that allometry is preserved due to a lack of genetic variation, and provides evidence that natural selection acts to maintain allometric relationships. On the other hand, it seems implausible that selection on allometry in the wing alone could be sufficiently strong to maintain static allometries over millions of years. This suggests that a potential explanation for stasis is selection on a potentially large number of pleiotropic effects. This seems likely in the case of allometry, as the sizes of all parts of the body may be altered when the allometric slope of one body part is changed. Unfortunately, hypotheses about pleiotropy have been very difficult to test. We lay out an approach to begin the systematic study of pleiotropic effects using genetic manipulations and high-throughput phenotyping.

Stabilizing selection and adaptive evolution in a combination of two traits in an arctic ungulate

Stabilizing selection is thought to be common in wild populations and act as one of the main evolutionary mechanisms, which constrain phenotypic variation. When multiple traits interact to create a combined phenotype, correlational selection may be an important process driving adaptive evolution. Here, we report on phenotypic selection and evolutionary changes in two natal traits in a semidomestic population of reindeer (Rangifer tarandus) in northern Finland. The population has been closely monitored since 1969, and detailed data have been collected on individuals since they were born. Over the length of the study period (1969-2015), we found directional and stabilizing selection toward a combination of earlier birth date and heavier birth mass with an intermediate optimum along the major axis of the selection surface. In addition, we demonstrate significant changes in mean traits toward earlier birth date and heavier birth mass, with corresponding genetic changes in breeding values during the study period. Our results demonstrate evolutionary changes in a combination of two traits, which agree closely with estimated patterns of phenotypic selection. Knowledge of the selective surface for combinations of genetically correlated traits are vital to predict how population mean phenotypes and fitness are affected when environments change.

Artificial Selection to Increase the Phenotypic Variance in gmax Fails

Stabilizing selection is important in evolutionary theories of the maintenance of genetic variance and has been invoked as the key process determining macroevolutionary patterns of trait evolution. However, manipulative evidence for the extent of stabilizing selection, particularly on multivariate traits, is lacking. We used artificial disruptive selection in Drosophila serrata as a tool to determine the relative strength of stabilizing selection experienced by multivariate trait combinations with contrasting levels of genetic and mutational variance. Contrary to expectation, when disruptive selection was applied to the major axis of standing genetic variance, g_max, we observed a significant and repeatable decrease in its phenotypic variance. In contrast, the multivariate trait combination predicted to be under strong stabilizing selection showed a significant and repeatable increase in its phenotypic variance. Correlated responses were observed in all selection treatments, and viability selection operating on extreme phenotypes of traits genetically correlated with those directly selected on limited our ability to increase their phenotypic range. Our manipulation revealed that multivariate trait combinations were subject to stabilizing selection; however, we did not observe a direct relationship between the strength of stabilizing selection and the levels of standing genetic variance in multivariate trait combinations. Contrasting patterns of allele frequencies underlying traits with high versus low levels of standing genetic variance may be implicated in determining the response to artificial selection in multivariate trait combinations.

Intense natural selection preceded the invasion of new adaptive zones during the radiation of New World leaf-nosed bats

The family Phyllostomidae, which evolved in the New World during the last 30 million years, represents one of the largest and most morphologically diverse mammal families. Due to its uniquely diverse functional morphology, the phyllostomid skull is presumed to have evolved under strong directional selection; however, quantitative estimation of the strength of selection in this extraordinary lineage has not been reported. Here, we used comparative quantitative genetics approaches to elucidate the processes that drove cranial evolution in phyllostomids. We also quantified the strength of selection and explored its association with dietary transitions and specialization along the phyllostomid phylogeny. Our results suggest that natural selection was the evolutionary process responsible for cranial diversification in phyllostomid bats. Remarkably, the strongest selection in the phyllostomid phylogeny was associated with dietary specialization and the origination of novel feeding habits, suggesting that the adaptive diversification of phyllostomid bats was triggered by ecological opportunities. These findings are consistent with Simpson’s quantum evolutionary model of transitions between adaptive zones. The multivariate analyses used in this study provides a powerful tool for understanding the role of evolutionary processes in shaping phenotypic diversity in any group on both micro- and macroevolutionary scales.

Evolution of a predator-induced, nonlinear reaction norm

Inducible, anti-predator traits are a classic example of phenotypic plasticity. Their evolutionary dynamics depend on their genetic basis, the historical pattern of predation risk that populations have experienced and current selection gradients. When populations experience predators with contrasting hunting strategies and size preferences, theory suggests contrasting micro-evolutionary responses to selection. Daphnia pulex is an ideal species to explore the micro-evolutionary response of anti-predator traits because they face heterogeneous predation regimes, sometimes experiencing only invertebrate midge predators and other times experiencing vertebrate fish and invertebrate midge predators. We explored plausible patterns of adaptive evolution of a predator-induced morphological reaction norm. We combined estimates of selection gradients that characterize the various habitats that D. pulex experiences with detail on the quantitative genetic architecture of inducible morphological defences. Our data reveal a fine scale description of daphnid defensive reaction norms, and a strong covariance between the sensitivity to cues and the maximum response to cues. By analysing the response of the reaction norm to plausible, predator-specific selection gradients, we show how in the context of this covariance, micro-evolution may be more uniform than predicted from size-selective predation theory. Our results show how covariance between the sensitivity to cues and the maximum response to cues for morphological defence can shape the evolutionary trajectory of predator-induced defences in D. pulex.

Concordance between stabilizing sexual selection, intraspecific variation, and interspecific divergence in Phymata

Empirical studies show that lineages typically exhibit long periods of evolutionary stasis and that relative levels of within-species trait covariance often correlate with the extent of between-species trait divergence. These observations have been interpreted by some as evidence of genetic constraints persisting for long periods of time. However, an alternative explanation is that both intra- and interspecific variation are shaped by the features of the adaptive landscape (e.g., stabilizing selection). Employing a genus of insects that are diverse with respect to a suite of secondary sex traits, we related data describing nonlinear phenotypic (sexual) selection to intraspecific trait covariances and macroevolutionary divergence. We found support for two key predictions (1) that intraspecific trait covariation would be aligned with stabilizing selection and (2) that there would be restricted macroevolutionary divergence in the direction of stabilizing selection. The observed alignment of all three matrices offers a point of caution in interpreting standing variability as metrics of evolutionary constraint. Our results also illustrate the power of sexual selection for determining variation observed at both short and long timescales and account for the apparently slow evolution of some secondary sex characters in this lineage.

Type I error rates for testing genetic drift with phenotypic covariance matrices: a simulation study

Studies of evolutionary divergence using quantitative genetic methods are centered on the additive genetic variance-covariance matrix (G) of correlated traits. However, estimating G properly requires large samples and complicated experimental designs. Multivariate tests for neutral evolution commonly replace average G by the pooled phenotypic within-group variance-covariance matrix (W) for evolutionary inferences, but this approach has been criticized due to the lack of exact proportionality between genetic and phenotypic matrices. In this study, we examined the consequence, in terms of type I error rates, of replacing average G by W in a test of neutral evolution that measures the regression slope between among-population variances and within-population eigenvalues (the Ackermann and Cheverud [AC] test) using a simulation approach to generate random observations under genetic drift. Our results indicate that the type I error rates for the genetic drift test are acceptable when using W instead of average G when the matrix correlation between the ancestral G and P is higher than 0.6, the average character heritability is above 0.7, and the matrices share principal components. For less-similar G and P matrices, the type I error rates would still be acceptable if the ratio between the number of generations since divergence and the effective population size (t/N(e)) is smaller than 0.01 (large populations that diverged recently). When G is not known in real data, a simulation approach to estimate expected slopes for the AC test under genetic drift is discussed.

A test of the hypothesis that correlational selection generates genetic correlations

Theory predicts that correlational selection on two traits will cause the major axis of the bivariate G matrix to orient itself in the same direction as the correlational selection gradient. Two testable predictions follow from this: for a given pair of traits, (1) the sign of correlational selection gradient should be the same as that of the genetic correlation, and (2) the correlational selection gradient should be positively correlated with the value of the genetic correlation. We test this hypothesis with a meta-analysis utilizing empirical estimates of correlational selection gradients and measures of the correlation between the two focal traits. Our results are consistent with both predictions and hence support the underlying hypothesis that correlational selection generates a genetic correlation between the two traits and hence orients the bivariate G matrix.