The epidemiological study of autism in Fukushima-ken

Annual trends in prevalence and incidence of autism spectrum disorders in Manitoba preschoolers and toddlers: 2004-2015

OBJECTIVES

Autism spectrum disorders (ASD) are among the leading causes of disabilities in children. We examined the annual prevalence and incidence rate of ASD between 2004 and 2015 in children aged 1 to 5 years residing in Manitoba.

METHODS

A population-based study was conducted using the Manitoba Population Research Data Repository. The study included children aged 1 to 5 years residing in Manitoba between 2004 and 2015. Standard identification algorithm was used to identify ASD cases from hospital abstracts and medical claims. Annual prevalence and incidence rates were calculated for the overall population and then stratified according to sex, region, and socio-economic status (SES). Multivariable negative binomial regression models, adjusted for sex, region, and SES, were used to examine changes in prevalence and incidence over study years.

RESULTS

Among children aged 1 to 5 years, 1685 ASD cases were diagnosed between 2004 and 2015. The crude ASD prevalence increased from 0.46% in 2004 to 0.97% in 2015 (p = 0.002). The crude incidence rate increased from 0.16% in 2004 to 0.39% in 2015 (p = 0.002). The increase in ASD prevalence and incidence was observed in all subgroups based on sex, region, and SES. The adjusted negative binomial model showed an annual relative risk increase, since 2004, for both prevalence and incidence of 1.69 (95% CI 1.56-1.83) and 1.84 (95% CI 1.62-2.09), respectively.

CONCLUSION

During the period from 2004 to 2015, both prevalence and incidence rates of diagnosed ASD in preschoolers and toddlers residing in Manitoba increased significantly.

Urbanicity and autism spectrum disorders

The etiology of autism spectrum disorders (ASD) is for the majority of cases unknown and more studies of risk factors are needed. Geographic variation in ASD occurrence has been observed, and urban residence has been suggested to serve as a proxy for etiologic and identification factors in ASD. We examined the association between urbanicity level and ASD at birth and during childhood. The study used a Danish register-based cohort of more than 800,000 children of which nearly 4,000 children were diagnosed with ASD. We found a dose-response association with greater level of urbanicity and risk of ASD. This association was found for residence at birth as well as residence during childhood. Further, we found an increased risk of ASD in children who moved to a higher level of urbanicity after birth. Also, earlier age of ASD diagnosis in urban areas was observed. While we could not directly examine the specific reasons behind these associations, our results demonstrating particularly strong associations between ASD diagnosis and post-birth migration suggest the influence of identification-related factors such as access to services might have a substantive role on the ASD differentials we observed.

Socioeconomic status and the risk of suspected autism spectrum disorders among 18-month-old toddlers in Japan: a population-based study

The association between family socioeconomic status (SES) and the suspected autism spectrum disorder (ASD) status of 18-month-old toddlers was investigated using a population-based sample in Japan, which has a universal healthcare system and a mandatory health checkup system for toddlers. Questionnaires including SES measurements and modified checklist for autism in toddlers were mailed to all families with 18-month-old toddlers in Chiba, a city near Tokyo (N = 6,061; response rate: 64%). The results of logistic regression analysis (which were adjusted for potential confounders) indicated that low maternal education, but not paternal education or family income, were associated with having suspected ASD offspring. Lower maternal education was associated with an increased risk of autistic traits in Japan.

Association between Kawasaki disease and autism: a population-based study in Taiwan

Objective: The association between Kawasaki disease and autism has rarely been studied in Asian populations. By using a nationwide Taiwanese population-based claims database, we tested the hypothesis that Kawasaki disease may increase the risk of autism in Taiwan. Materials and Methods: Our study cohort consisted of patients who had received the diagnosis of Kawasaki disease (ICD-9-CM: 446.1) between 1997 and 2005 (N = 563). For a comparison cohort, five age- and gender-matched control patients for every patient in the study cohort were selected using random sampling (N = 2,815). All subjects were tracked for 5 years from the date of cohort entry to identify whether they had developed autism (ICD-9-CM code 299.0) or not. Cox proportional hazard regressions were then performed to evaluate 5-year autism-free survival rates. Results: The main finding of this study was that patients with Kawasaki disease seem to not be at increased risk of developing autism. Of the total patients, four patients developed autism during the 5-year follow-up period, among whom two were Kawasaki disease patients and two were in the comparison cohort. Further, the adjusted hazard ratios (AHR) (AHR: 4.81; 95% confidence interval: 0.68–34.35; P = 0.117) did not show any statistical significance between the Kawasaki disease group and the control group during the 5-year follow-up. Conclusion: Our study indicated that patients with Kawasaki disease are not at increased risk of autism.

Socioeconomic inequality in the prevalence of autism spectrum disorder: evidence from a U.S. cross-sectional study

BACKGROUND

This study was designed to evaluate the hypothesis that the prevalence of autism spectrum disorder (ASD) among children in the United States is positively associated with socioeconomic status (SES).

METHODS

A cross-sectional study was implemented with data from the Autism and Developmental Disabilities Monitoring Network, a multiple source surveillance system that incorporates data from educational and health care sources to determine the number of 8-year-old children with ASD among defined populations. For the years 2002 and 2004, there were 3,680 children with ASD among a population of 557,689 8-year-old children. Area-level census SES indicators were used to compute ASD prevalence by SES tertiles of the population.

RESULTS

Prevalence increased with increasing SES in a dose-response manner, with prevalence ratios relative to medium SES of 0.70 (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.64, 0.76) for low SES, and of 1.25 (95% CI 1.16, 1.35) for high SES, (P<0.001). Significant SES gradients were observed for children with and without a pre-existing ASD diagnosis, and in analyses stratified by gender, race/ethnicity, and surveillance data source. The SES gradient was significantly stronger in children with a pre-existing diagnosis than in those meeting criteria for ASD but with no previous record of an ASD diagnosis (p<0.001), and was not present in children with co-occurring ASD and intellectual disability.

CONCLUSIONS

The stronger SES gradient in ASD prevalence in children with versus without a pre-existing ASD diagnosis points to potential ascertainment or diagnostic bias and to the possibility of SES disparity in access to services for children with autism. Further research is needed to confirm and understand the sources of this disparity so that policy implications can be drawn. Consideration should also be given to the possibility that there may be causal mechanisms or confounding factors associated with both high SES and vulnerability to ASD.

Autism, asthma, inflammation, and the hygiene hypothesis

Inflammation and the genes, molecules, and biological pathways that lead to inflammatory processes influence many important and disparate biological processes and disease states that are quite often not generally considered classical inflammatory or autoimmune disorders. These include development, reproduction, aging, tumor development and tumor rejection, cardiovascular pathologies, metabolic disorders, as well as neurological and psychiatric disorders. This paper compares parallel aspects of autism and inflammatory disorders with an emphasis on asthma. These comparisons include epidemiological, morphometric, molecular, and genetic aspects of both disease types, contributing to a hypothesis of autism in the context of the immune based hygiene hypothesis. This hypothesis is meant to address the apparent rise in the prevalence of autism in the population.

Systematic review of prevalence studies of autism spectrum disorders

AIM

To quantitatively examine the influence of study methodology and population characteristics on prevalence estimates of autism spectrum disorders.

METHODS

Electronic databases and bibliographies were searched and identified papers evaluated against inclusion criteria. Two groups of studies estimated the prevalence of typical autism and all autism spectrum disorders (ASD). The extent of variation among studies and overall prevalence were estimated using meta-analysis. The influence of methodological factors and population characteristics on estimated prevalence was investigated using meta-regression and summarised as odds ratios (OR).

RESULTS

Forty studies met inclusion criteria, of which 37 estimated the prevalence of typical autism, and 23 the prevalence of all ASD. A high degree of heterogeneity among studies was observed. The overall random effects estimate of prevalence across studies of typical autism was 7.1 per 10,000 (95% CI 1.6 to 30.6) and of all ASD was 20.0 per 10,000 (95% CI 4.9 to 82.1). Diagnostic criteria used (ICD-10 or DSM-IV versus other; OR = 3.36, 95% CI 2.07 to 5.46), age of the children screened (OR = 0.91 per year, 95% CI 0.83 to 0.99), and study location (e.g. Japan versus North America; OR = 3.60, 95% CI 1.73 to 7.46) were all significantly associated with prevalence of typical autism. Diagnostic criteria, age of the sample, and urban or rural location were associated with estimated prevalence of all ASD.

CONCLUSIONS

Sixty one per cent of the variation in prevalence estimates of typical autism was explained by these models. Diagnostic criteria used, age of children screened, and study location may be acting as proxies for other study characteristics and require further investigation.

Epidemiological surveys of autism and other pervasive developmental disorders: an update

This paper was commissioned by the committee on the Effectiveness of Early Education in Autism of the National Research Council (NRC). It provides a review of epidemiological studies of pervasive developmental disorders (PDD) which updates a previously published article (The epidemiology of autism: a review. Psychological Medicine 1999; 29: 769-786). The design, sample characteristics of 32 surveys published between 1966 and 2001 are described. Recent surveys suggest that the rate for all forms of PDDs are around 30/10,000 but more recent surveys suggest that the estimate might be as high as 60/10,000. The rate for Asperger disorder is not well established, and a conservative figure is 2.5/10,000. Childhood disintegrative disorder is extremely rare with a pooled estimate across studies of 0.2/10,000. A detailed discussion of the possible interpretations of trends over time in prevalence rates is provided. There is evidence that changes in case definition and improved awareness explain much of the upward trend of rates in recent decades. However, available epidemiological surveys do not provide an adequate test of the hypothesis of a changing incidence of PDDs.

Descriptive epidemiology of autism in a California population: who is at risk?

We investigated the association between selected infant and maternal characteristics and autism risk. Children with autism born in California in 1989-1994 were identified through service agency records and compared with the total population of California live births for selected characteristics recorded on the birth certificate. Multivariate models were used to generate adjusted risk estimates. From a live birth population of more than 3.5 million, 4381 children with autism were identified. Increased risks were observed for males, multiple births, and children born to black mothers. Risk increased as maternal age and maternal education increased. Children born to immigrant mothers had similar or decreased risk compared with California-born mothers. Environmental factors associated with these demographic characteristics may interact with genetic vulnerability to increase the risk of autism.

The changing prevalence of autism in California

We conducted a population-based study of eight successive California births cohorts to examine the degree to which improvements in detection and changes in diagnosis contribute to the observed increase in autism prevalence. Children born in 1987-1994 who had autism were identified from the statewide agency responsible for coordinating services for individuals with developmental disabilities. To evaluate the role of diagnostic substitution, trends in prevalence of mental retardation without autism were also investigated. A total of 5038 children with full syndrome autism were identified from 4,590,333 California births, a prevalence of 11.0 per 10,000. During the study period, prevalence increased from 5.8 to 14.9 per 10,000, for an absolute change of 9.1 per 10,000. The pattern of increase was not influenced by maternal age, race/ethnicity, education, child gender, or plurality. During the same period, the prevalence of mental retardation without autism decreased from 28.8 to 19.5 per 10,000, for an absolute change of 9.3 per 10,000. These data suggest that improvements in detection and changes in diagnosis account for the observed increase in autism; whether there has also been a true increase in incidence is not known.

Descriptive epidemiology of autism in a California population: who is at risk?

We investigated the association between selected infant and maternal characteristics and autism risk. Children with autism born in California in 1989-1994 were identified through service agency records and compared with the total population of California live births for selected characteristics recorded on the birth certificate. Multivariate models were used to generate adjusted risk estimates. From a live birth population of more than 3.5 million, 4381 children with autism were identified. Increased risks were observed for males, multiple births, and children born to black mothers. Risk increased as maternal age and maternal education increased. Children born to immigrant mothers had similar or decreased risk compared with California-born mothers. Environmental factors associated with these demographic characteristics may interact with genetic vulnerability to increase the risk of autism.

The definition and prevalence of autism: A review

Sixteen studies of the prevalence of autism in childhood, using epidemiological methods in defined populations in Europe, the USA and Japan, in English or with English summaries, were found in the published literature. Age specific rates varied from 3.3 to 16.0 per 10,000. Eight studies gave rates for a sub-group of 'typical' autism varying from 1.2 to 8.4. Reasons for variations were sought by examining geographic and demographic details of the populations screened, methods for initial screening and final examination of possibly autistic children, demographic and clinical details of children identified as autistic, and criteria used for diagnosis. There was evidence, independent of diagnostic criteria, of a higher prevalence among children of first generation immigrants to Europe from 'exotic' countries. Apart from this, all differences could be due to variations in diagnostic practice and increasing awareness of the manifestations of autistic conditions throughout the range of intelligence, from severely retarded to average and above. However, it remains possible, though not proven, that rates do vary over place and/or time. The problems of defining a sub-group with 'typical' autism among the wide spectrum of children with the triad of impairments of social interaction, communication and imagination are discussed and the value of such a sub-grouping questioned.