Combined modelling of distribution and niche in invasion biology: a case study of two invasive Tetramorium ant species

Humidity - The overlooked variable in the thermal biology of mosquito-borne disease

Vector-borne diseases cause significant financial and human loss, with billions of dollars spent on control. Arthropod vectors experience a complex suite of environmental factors that affect fitness, population growth and species interactions across multiple spatial and temporal scales. Temperature and water availability are two of the most important abiotic variables influencing their distributions and abundances. While extensive research on temperature exists, the influence of humidity on vector and pathogen parameters affecting disease dynamics are less understood. Humidity is often underemphasized, and when considered, is often treated as independent of temperature even though desiccation likely contributes to declines in trait performance at warmer temperatures. This Perspectives explores how humidity shapes the thermal performance of mosquito-borne pathogen transmission. We summarize what is known about its effects and propose a conceptual model for how temperature and humidity interact to shape the range of temperatures across which mosquitoes persist and achieve high transmission potential. We discuss how failing to account for these interactions hinders efforts to forecast transmission dynamics and respond to epidemics of mosquito-borne infections. We outline future research areas that will ground the effects of humidity on the thermal biology of pathogen transmission in a theoretical and empirical framework to improve spatial and temporal prediction of vector-borne pathogen transmission.

Realized niche shift of an invasive widow spider: drivers and impacts of human activities

Background

Predicting invasiveness requires an understanding of the propensity of a given species to thrive in areas with novel ecological challenges. Evaluation of realized niche shift of an invasive species in its invasive range, detecting the main drivers of the realized niche shift, and predicting the potential distribution of the species can provide important information for the management of populations of invasive species and the conservation of biodiversity. The Australian redback spider, Latrodectus hasselti, is a widow spider that is native to Australia and established in Japan, New Zealand, and Southeast Asia. We used ecological niche models and ordinal comparisons in an integrative method to compare the realized niches of native and invasive populations of this spider species. We also assessed the impact of several climatic predictor variables and human activity on this niche shift. We hypothesized that human impact is important for successful establishment of this anthropophilic species, and that climatic predictor variables may determine suitable habitat and thus predict invasive ranges.

Results

Our models showed that L. hasselti distributions are positively influenced by human impact in both of the native and invasive ranges. Maximum temperature was the most important climatic variable in predictions of the distribution of native populations, while precipitation seasonality was the most important in predictions of invasive populations. The realized niche of L. hasselti in its invasive range differed from that in its native range, indicating possible realized niche shift.

Conclusions

We infer that a preference for human-disturbed environments may underlie invasion and establishment in this spider species, as anthropogenic habitat modifications could provide shelters from unsuitable climatic conditions and extreme climatic stresses to the spiders. Because Australia and the countries in which the species is invasive have differing climates, differences in the availability of certain climatic conditions could have played a role in the realized niche shift of L. hasselti.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12983-022-00470-z.

Biological invasions reveal how niche change affects the transferability of species distribution models

Species distribution models (SDMs) have been widely applied to predict geographic ranges of species across space and time under the assumption of niche conservatism (i.e., species niches change very slowly). However, an increasing number of studies have reported evidence of rapid niche changes across space and time, which has sparked a widespread debate on whether SDMs can be transferred to new areas or time periods. Understanding how niche changes affect SDM transferability is thus crucial for the future application and improvement of SDMs. Biological invasions provide an opportunity to address this question due to the geographically independent distributions and diverse patterns of niche changes between species' native and introduced ranges. Here, we synthesized findings about 217 species from 50 studies to elucidate the effects of niche change on the spatial transferability of SDMs. When niche change was considered as a categorical classification (conserved vs. shifted niches) in tests of the niche conservatism hypothesis, SDM transferability was markedly lower for species with a shifted niche in their introduced range. When niche change was measured as numerical dynamics between native and introduced niches, SDM transferability was high for species occupying similar environmental conditions in both ranges and low for species with more environmental space remaining unoccupied in the introduced range. Surprisingly, the number of presence points used for developing SDMs turned out to have an even stronger effect on transferability. Our results thus reveal detrimental effects of both niche change and lack of presence points on SDM transferability. It is necessary to consider both niche change and data quality for improving the transferability of SDMs, so that they can better support conservation management and policy decisions.

Fungi in Freshwaters: Prioritising Aquatic Hyphomycetes in Conservation Goals

Deprivation of protection for aquatic hyphomycetes is disturbing because they are key players in freshwater ecosystems across the globe. To attain a more holistic conservation paradigm for biodiversity in freshwaters, it is necessary to broaden our ecological perception of microfungi, mainly in aquatic hyphomycetes. A considerable groundwork still needs to be accomplished in progressing towards conserving aquatic hyphomycetes. Overcoming the paucity of information regarding the rare and endangered species, biogeography and above all, a global biodiversity database, would be a significant contribution in the initiation of an overarching conservation strategy for aquatic hyphomycetes. Being aware that the biodiversity decline in freshwaters is alarming, here we seek to explore why biodiversity data of aquatic hyphomycetes are missing. This article closely examines the threats to the biodiversity of aquatic hyphomycetes and freshwater ecosystems. Moving forward, we advocate a structured approach to gaining a thorough understanding to embrace aquatic hyphomycetes biodiversity into the conservation strategies. Including aquatic hyphomycetes in the conservation objectives may attract more funding opportunities for global surveys to initiate a fungal inclusive conservation era. Fungal conservation ventures can profit from interdisciplinary collaborations and cutting-edge science and technology, leading to informed decision making for biodiversity assessment and management.

Discrimination of conspecifics from heterospecifics in a hybrid zone: Behavioral and chemical cues in ants

Species and nestmate recognition in social insects occurs mostly through cuticular hydrocarbons acting as chemical cues. These compounds generate a colony-specific odor profile depending on genetic and environmental factors. Species and nestmate recognition results in specific behavioral responses, regulating the level of aggression toward other individuals during an interaction. Although species discrimination and recognition cues have been poorly studied in the context of interspecific hybridization, such systems offer an opportunity to further investigate the influence of heritable and environmental factors on recognition. We explored the strength of discrimination in a hybrid zone between two ant species-Tetramorium immigrans and T. caespitum-by comparing cuticular hydrocarbon profiles and measuring intra- and interspecific worker aggression in both areas of sympatry and areas of allopatry among species. Species cuticular hydrocarbon profiles were well-differentiated and interspecific aggression was high, revealing highly discriminating species recognition cues. Hybrids' cuticular hydrocarbon profiles consisted of a mixture of the parental bouquets, but also exhibited hybrid-specific patterns. Behavioral assays showed that T. immigrans is as aggressive toward hybrids as toward heterospecifics. Finally, aggression between heterospecific workers was lower when interacting individuals came from areas of sympatry among species than from areas of allopatry. Taken as a whole, these findings paint a particularly complex picture of the recognition system in T. immigrans, T. caespitum, and their hybrids, and highlight that hybrid zones afford a still underexplored opportunity for investigating recognition mechanisms and discrimination between species.

Effect of social structure and introduction history on genetic diversity and differentiation

Invasive species are a global threat to biodiversity, and understanding their history and biology is a major goal of invasion biology. Population-genetic approaches allow insights into these features, as population structure is shaped by factors such as invasion history (number, origin and age of introductions) and life-history traits (e.g., mating system, dispersal capability). We compared the relative importance of these factors by investigating two closely related ants, Tetramorium immigrans and Tetramorium tsushimae, that differ in their social structure and invasion history in North America. We used mitochondrial DNA sequences and microsatellite alleles to estimate the source and number of introduction events of the two species, and compared genetic structure among native and introduced populations. Genetic diversity of both species was strongly reduced in introduced populations, which also differed genetically from native populations. Genetic differentiation between ranges and the reduction in microsatellite diversity were more severe in the more recently introduced and supercolonial T. tsushimae. However, the loss of mitochondrial haplotype diversity was more pronounced in T. immigrans, which has single-queen colonies and was introduced earlier. Tetramorium immigrans was introduced at least twice from Western Europe to North America and once independently to South America. Its monogyny might have limited genetic diversity per introduction, but new mutations and successive introductions over a long time may have added to the gene pool in the introduced range. Polygyny in T. tsushimae probably facilitated the simultaneous introduction of several queens from a Japanese population to St. Louis, USA. In addition to identifying introduction pathways, our results reveal how social structure can influence the population-genetic consequences of founder events.

Genomic Signature of Shifts in Selection in a Subalpine Ant and Its Physiological Adaptations

Understanding how organisms adapt to extreme environments is fundamental and can provide insightful case studies for both evolutionary biology and climate-change biology. Here, we take advantage of the vast diversity of lifestyles in ants to identify genomic signatures of adaptation to extreme habitats such as high altitude. We hypothesized two parallel patterns would occur in a genome adapting to an extreme habitat: 1) strong positive selection on genes related to adaptation and 2) a relaxation of previous purifying selection. We tested this hypothesis by sequencing the high-elevation specialist Tetramorium alpestre and four other phylogenetically related species. In support of our hypothesis, we recorded a strong shift of selective forces in T. alpestre, in particular a stronger magnitude of diversifying and relaxed selection when compared with all other ants. We further disentangled candidate molecular adaptations in both gene expression and protein-coding sequence that were identified by our genome-wide analyses. In particular, we demonstrate that T. alpestre has 1) a higher level of expression for stv and other heat-shock proteins in chill-shock tests and 2) enzymatic enhancement of Hex-T1, a rate-limiting regulatory enzyme that controls the entry of glucose into the glycolytic pathway. Together, our analyses highlight the adaptive molecular changes that support colonization of high-altitude environments.

The failed invasion of Harmonia axyridis in the Azores, Portugal: Climatic restriction or wrong population origin?

We tested two questions: (i) whether the climatic conditions of the Azorean Islands in Portugal may have restricted the invasion of Harmonia axyridis across this archipelago and (ii) determine what population of this species could have a higher probability of invading the islands. We used MaxEnt to project the climate requirements of different H. axyridis populations from three regions of the world, and the potential global niche of the species in the Azorean islands. Then we assessed the suitability of the islands for each of the three H. axyridis populations and global potential niche through histograms analysis, Principal Component Analysis (PCA) of climate variables, and a variable-by-variable assessment of the suitability response curves compared with the climatic conditions of the Azores. Climatic conditions of the Azores are less suitable for the U.S. and native Asian populations of H. axyridis, and more suitable for European populations and the global potential niche. The PCA showed that the climatic conditions of the islands differed from the climatic requirements of H. axyridis. This difference is mainly explained by precipitation of the wettest month, isothermality, and the minimum temperature of the coldest month. We concluded that the climatic conditions of the Azores could have influenced the establishment and spread of H. axyridis on these islands from Europe. Our results showed that abiotic resistance represented by the climate of the potentially colonizable zones could hinder the establishment of invasive insects, but it could vary depending of the origin of the colonizing population.

Predicting the invasion range for a highly polyphagous and widespread forest herbivore

Here we compare the environmental niche of a highly polyphagous forest Lepidoptera species, the winter moth (Operophtera brumata), in its native and invaded range. During the last 90 years, this European tree folivore has invaded North America in at least three regions and exhibited eruptive population behavior in both its native and invaded range. Despite its importance as both a forest and agricultural pest, neither the potential extent of this species’ invaded range nor the geographic source of invading populations from its native range are known. Here we fit a climatic niche model, based on the MaxEnt algorithm, to historical records of winter moth occurrence in its native range and compare predictions of suitable distributions to records from the invaded range. We modeled this distribution using three spatial bins to overcome sampling bias for data obtained from public databases and averaged the multi-continental suitable habitat prediction. Results indicate that this species is distributed across a wide range of climates in its native range but occupies a narrower range in its invaded habitat. Furthermore, the lack of a close fit between climatic conditions in parts of its invaded range and its known native range suggests the possibility that this species has adapted to new climatic conditions during the invasion process. These models can be used to predict suitable habitats for winter moth invasions worldwide and to gain insight into possible origins of North American populations.

Monitoring the influx of new species through citizen science: the first introduced ant in Denmark

Climate change and invasive species threaten biodiversity, yet rigorous monitoring of their impact can be costly. Citizen science is increasingly used as a tool for monitoring exotic species, because citizens are geographically and temporally dispersed, whereas scientists tend to cluster in museums and at universities. Here we report on the establishment of the first exotic ant taxon (Tetramorium immigrans) in Denmark, which was discovered by children participating in The Ant Hunt. The Ant Hunt is a citizen science project for children that we ran in 2017 and 2018, with a pilot study in 2015. T. immigrans was discovered in the Botanical Garden of the Natural History Museum of Denmark in 2015 and confirmed as established in 2018. This finding extends the northern range boundary of T. immigrans by almost 460 km. Using climatic niche modelling, we compared the climatic niche of T. immigrans in Europe with that of T. caespitum based on confirmed observations from 2006 to 2019. T. immigrans and T. caespitum had a 13% niche overlap, with T. immigrans showing stronger occurrence in warmer and drier areas compared to T. caespitum. Mapping the environmental niches onto geographic space identified several, currently uninhabited, areas as climatically suitable for the establishment of T. immigrans. Tetramorium immigrans was sampled almost three times as often in areas with artificial surfaces compared to T. caespitum, suggesting that T. immigrans may not be native to all of Europe and is being accidentally introduced by humans. Overall, citizen scientists collected data on ants closer to cities and harbours than scientists did and had a stronger bias towards areas of human disturbance. This increased sampling effort in areas of likely introduction of exotic species naturally increases the likelihood of discovering species sooner, making citizen science an excellent tool for exotic species monitoring, as long as trained scientists are involved in the identification process.

Spatial pattern and determinants of global invasion risk of an invasive species, sharpbelly Hemiculter leucisculus (Basilesky, 1855)

Invasive species have imposed huge negative impacts on worldwide aquatic ecosystems and are generally difficult or impossible to be eradicated once established. Consequently, it becomes particularly important to ascertain their invasion risk and its determinants since such information can help us formulate more effective preventive or management actions and direct these measures to those areas where they are truly needed so as to ease regulatory burdens. Here, we examined the global invasion risk and its determinants of sharpbelly (Hemiculter leucisculus), one freshwater fish which has a high invasive potential, by using species distribution models (SDMs) and a layer overlay method. Specifically, first an ensemble species distribution model and its basal models (developed from seven machine learning algorithms) were explored to forecast the global habitat-suitability and variables importance for this species, and then a global invasion risk map was created by combining habitat-suitability with a proxy for introduction likelihood (entailing propagule pressure and dispersal constraints) of exotic sharpbelly. The results revealed that (1) the ensemble model had the highest predictive power in forecasting sharpbelly's global habitat-suitability; (2) areas with high invasion risk by sharpbelly patchily spread over the world except Antarctica; and (3) the Human Influence Index (HII), rather than any of the bioclimatic variables, was the most important factor influencing sharpbelly' future invasion. Based on these results, the present study also attempted to propose a series of prevention and management strategies to eliminate or alleviate the adverse effects caused by this species' further expansion.

Idiosyncrasies in cities: evaluating patterns and drivers of ant biodiversity along urbanization gradients

Urbanization is expected to reduce biodiversity. However, an increasing number of studies report urban biodiversity comparable to that of surrounding nonurban areas, leaving open the question: what maintains biodiversity in cities? We characterized patterns of ant biodiversity across urbanization gradients of three major cities in the Midwestern United States and evaluated the support for two mechanisms underlying the maintenance of biodiversity in cities, specifically via introduced non-native species and differential phenology of communities along each urbanization gradient. We observed idiosyncrasies in ant species diversity such that each city displayed either increased, decreased or no change in biodiversity across the urbanization gradient. We found partial support (one of the three cities) for the hypothesis that non-native species can contribute positively to overall species diversity in cities, though even with introduced species removed from consideration, native ant biodiversity was maintained along the urbanization gradient. We found no support for systematic differential phenology across urbanization gradients, although species diversity did vary over time across all sites. Our results further challenge the assumption of biodiversity loss in cities, as two of our three cities exhibited maintained species diversity along the urbanization gradient. Most importantly, our study demonstrates that urban biodiversity can be maintained entirely by native communities.

From the cage to the wild: introductions of Psittaciformes to Puerto Rico

Introduced psittacine birds can become highly invasive. In this study, we assessed invasions of Psittaciformes in Puerto Rico. We reviewed the literature, public databases, citizen science records, and performed in situ population surveys across the island to determine the historical and current status and distribution of psittacine species. We used count data from Ebird to determine population trends. For species whose populations were increasing, we modelled their potential distribution using niche modeling techniques. We found 46 Psittaciformes in Puerto Rico, of which 26% are only present as pets, at least 29 species have been reported in the wild, and of those, there is evidence that at least 12 species are breeding. Our results indicate that most introduced species which have been detected as established still persist, although mostly in localized areas and small populations. Clear evidence of invasiveness was found for Brotogeris versicolurus and Myiopsitta monachus, which have greatly expanded their range in recent years. Psittacara erythrogenys and Eupsittacula canicularis also showed population increases, although to a lesser degree. The niche models predicted suitable areas for the four species, and also indicate the potential for range expansion. We discuss the factors leading to invasion success, assess the potential impacts, and we discuss possible management strategies and research prospects.

Environmental niche unfilling but limited options for range expansion by active dispersion in an alien cavity-nesting wasp

BACKGROUND

Predicting the patterns of range expansion of alien species is central to develop effective strategies for managing potential biological invasions. Here, we present a study on the potential distribution of the American cavity-nesting, Orthoptera-hunting and solitary wasp, Isodontia mexicana (Hymenoptera: Sphecidae), which was first detected as alien species in France in 1960 and now is present in many European countries. After having updated its current distribution, we estimated the environmental space (based on bioclimatic data and altitude) occupied by the species and subsequently predicted its environmental potential distribution under both present and future climatic conditions at global scale.

RESULTS

The wasp lives in low-altitude areas of the Northern hemisphere with moderate temperatures and precipitation. The environmental space occupied in the invaded area is practically just a subset (42%) of that occupied in the native area, showing a process of environmental niche unfilling (i.e. the species only partially fills its environmental niche in the invaded range). Besides, I. mexicana could also live in other temperate areas, mainly in the Southern hemisphere, particularly close to the coasts. However, geographic (oceans) and/or climatic (tropical areas, mountain chains) barriers would prevent the species to reach these potential areas unless through human trade activity. The species could thus only reach, by active dispersion, the remaining invadable areas of Europe. Estimations for the future (2050 and 2070) predict an expansion through active dispersion towards North in the native range and towards North and East in the invaded range, but future conditions would not break down the current climatic barriers in the Southern hemisphere.

CONCLUSIONS

Isodontia mexicana has not shifted its environmental niche in the invaded area. It could still occupy some new areas by active dispersion, but confined to Europe. The conspicuous niche unfilling shown by this wasp species could reflect the likely single introduction in Europe just a few decades ago. Furthermore, results stay in line with other studies that found niche unfilling rather than niche expansion in insects.

RNA interference-mediated functional characterization of aquaporin genes in Tribolium castaneum

An obvious challenge faced by most terrestrial insects is maintaining water homeostasis in an arid environment. Current research suggests aquaporins may be evolved to meet the challenge. However, up to now, this suggestion has not been verified in any insect that feeds upon solid food with mandibulate mouthparts. In the present paper, nine putative aquaporin genes [Tribolium castaneum big brain, T. castaneum Drosophila integral protein (TcDrip), T. castaneum Pyrocoelia rufa integral protein (TcPrip), T. castaneum aquaporin 12-like, T. castaneum entomoglyceroporin 1 (TcEglp1), TcEglp2, TcEglp3, TcEglp4 and TcEglp5] were identified in T. castaneum. The transcripts of the nine genes were easily detectable in the foregut, midgut, hindgut-Malpighian tubule complex, fat body and carcass (except gut and fat body). Amongst them TcDrip, TcPrip, TcEglp1, TcEglp3 and TcEglp5 were highly transcribed in the hindgut-Malpighian tubule complex; TcEglp4 was abundantly expressed in both the fat body and hindgut-Malpighian tubule complex. RNA interference (RNAi)-mediated knockdown of TcEglp3 caused a grey larval cuticle, in contrast to a smooth and bright cuticle in control larvae. Approximately 40% of the TcEglp3 RNAi larvae had their hindguts protruding from the anus; their fresh wet faeces were attached to the hindgut. Another 20% of these treated larvae did not defaecate normally; wet brown faeces were adhered to the anal area. As a result, the larval growth was inhibited and about 60% larval lethality occurred. Silencing of TcEglp4 or TcDrip exhibited similar but weaker defective phenotypes as those of the TcEglp3-silenced larvae. Therefore, Eglp3, Eglp4 and Drip may contribute to the conductance of water in the alimentary canal and Malpighian tubules in T. castaneum.

Natural aversive learning in Tetramorium ants reveals ability to form a generalizable memory of predators' pit traps

Many species of ants fall prey to pit-digging larval antlions (Myrmeleon spp.), extremely sedentary predators that wait, nearly motionless at the bottom of their pit traps, for prey to stumble inside. Previous research, both in the field and laboratory, has demonstrated a remarkable ability of these ants to rescue trapped nestmates, thus sabotaging antlions' attempts to capture them. Here we show that pavement ants, Tetramorium sp. E, an invasive species and a major threat to biodiversity, possess yet another, more effective, antipredator strategy, namely the ability to learn to avoid antlion traps following a single successful escape from a pit. More importantly, we show that this learned antipredator behavior, an example of natural aversive learning in insects, is more complicated than a single cue-to-consequence form of associative learning. That is, pavement ants were able to generalize, after one experience, from the learned characteristics of the pit and its specific location, to other pits and other contexts that differed in many features. Such generalization, often described as a lack of precise stimulus control, nonetheless would be especially adaptive in nature, enabling ants to negotiate antlions' pit fields, which contain a hundred or more pits within a few centimetres of one another. Indeed, the ability to generalize in exactly this way almost certainly is responsible for the sudden, and heretofore inexplicable, behavioural modifications of ants in response to an invasion of antlions in the vicinity of an ant colony.

Stable isotopes reveal links between human food inputs and urban ant diets

The amount of energy consumed within an average city block is an order of magnitude higher than that consumed in any other ecosystem over a similar area. This is driven by human food inputs, but the consequence of these resources for urban animal populations is poorly understood. We investigated the role of human foods in ant diets across an urbanization gradient in Manhattan using carbon and nitrogen stable isotopes. We found that some-but not all-ant species living in Manhattan's most urbanized habitats had δ(13)C signatures associated with processed human foods. In particular, pavement ants (Tetramorium sp. E) had increased levels of δ(13)C similar to δ(13)C levels in human fast foods. The magnitude of this effect was positively correlated with urbanization. By contrast, we detected no differences in δ(15)N, suggesting Tetramorium feeds at the same trophic level despite shifting to human foods. This pattern persisted across the broader ant community; species in traffic islands used human resources more than park species. Our results demonstrate that the degree urban ants exploit human resources changes across the city and among species, and this variation could play a key role in community structure and ecosystem processes where human and animal food webs intersect.

Riverine Landscape Patch Heterogeneity Drives Riparian Ant Assemblages in the Scioto River Basin, USA

Although the principles of landscape ecology are increasingly extended to include riverine landscapes, explicit applications are few. We investigated associations between patch heterogeneity and riparian ant assemblages at 12 riverine landscapes of the Scioto River, Ohio, USA, that represent urban/developed, agricultural, and mixed (primarily forested, but also wetland, grassland/fallow, and exurban) land-use settings. Using remotely-sensed and ground-collected data, we delineated riverine landscape patch types (crop, grass/herbaceous, gravel, lawn, mudflat, open water, shrub, swamp, and woody vegetation), computed patch metrics (area, density, edge, richness, and shape), and conducted coordinated sampling of surface-active Formicidae assemblages. Ant density and species richness was lower in agricultural riverine landscapes than at mixed or developed reaches (measured using S [total number of species], but not using Menhinick’s Index [D_M]), whereas ant diversity (using the Berger-Park Index [D_BP]) was highest in agricultural reaches. We found no differences in ant density, richness, or diversity among internal riverine landscape patches. However, certain characteristics of patches influenced ant communities. Patch shape and density were significant predictors of richness (S: R² = 0.72; D_M: R²=0.57). Patch area, edge, and shape emerged as important predictors of D_BP (R² = 0.62) whereas patch area, edge, and density were strongly related to ant density (R² = 0.65). Non-metric multidimensional scaling and analysis of similarities distinguished ant assemblage composition in grass and swamp patches from crop, gravel, lawn, and shrub as well as ant assemblages in woody vegetation patches from crop, lawn, and gravel (stress = 0.18, R² = 0.64). These findings lend insight into the utility of landscape ecology to river science by providing evidence that spatial habitat patterns within riverine landscapes can influence assemblage characteristics of riparian arthropods.

Predicting the potential invasion suitability of regions to cassava lacebug pests (Heteroptera: Tingidae: Vatiga spp.)

Cassava (Manihot esculenta Crantz) is one of the most important staple crops for small farmers in the tropics, feeding about 800 million people worldwide. It is currently cultivated in South and Central America, Africa and Asia. The genus Vatiga is widespread throughout the Neotropical region. Its species are sympatric and feed exclusively on cassava. The main objectives of this paper are: (1) to assess the potential distribution of Vatiga, one of the most relevant pests of cassava; (2) to project the resulting models onto the world; (3) to recognize areas with suitable and optimal climates (and thus, high probability) for future colonization, and (4) to compare this model with the harvested area of cassava analyzing the climatic variables required by both the host and the pest species. Species distribution models were built using Maxent (v3.3.3k) with bioclimatic variables from the WorldClim database in 2.5 arc min resolution across the globe. Our model shows that Vatiga has the potential to expand its current distribution into other suitable areas, and could invade other regions where cassava is already cultivated, e.g., Central Africa and Asia. Considering the results and the high host specificity of Vatiga, its recent appearance in Réunion Island (Africa) poses a serious threat, as nearby areas are potentially suitable for invasion and could serve as dispersal routes enabling Vatiga to reach the continent. The present work may help prevention or early detection of Vatiga spp. in areas where cassava is grown.

A multi-scale distribution model for non-equilibrium populations suggests resource limitation in an endangered rodent

Species distributions are known to be limited by biotic and abiotic factors at multiple temporal and spatial scales. Species distribution models, however, frequently assume a population at equilibrium in both time and space. Studies of habitat selection have repeatedly shown the difficulty of estimating resource selection if the scale or extent of analysis is incorrect. Here, we present a multi-step approach to estimate the realized and potential distribution of the endangered giant kangaroo rat. First, we estimate the potential distribution by modeling suitability at a range-wide scale using static bioclimatic variables. We then examine annual changes in extent at a population-level. We define "available" habitat based on the total suitable potential distribution at the range-wide scale. Then, within the available habitat, model changes in population extent driven by multiple measures of resource availability. By modeling distributions for a population with robust estimates of population extent through time, and ecologically relevant predictor variables, we improved the predictive ability of SDMs, as well as revealed an unanticipated relationship between population extent and precipitation at multiple scales. At a range-wide scale, the best model indicated the giant kangaroo rat was limited to areas that received little to no precipitation in the summer months. In contrast, the best model for shorter time scales showed a positive relation with resource abundance, driven by precipitation, in the current and previous year. These results suggest that the distribution of the giant kangaroo rat was limited to the wettest parts of the drier areas within the study region. This multi-step approach reinforces the differing relationship species may have with environmental variables at different scales, provides a novel method for defining "available" habitat in habitat selection studies, and suggests a way to create distribution models at spatial and temporal scales relevant to theoretical and applied ecologists.

Influence of environment and climate on occurrence of the cixiid planthopper Hyalesthes obsoletus, the vector of the grapevine disease 'bois noir'

Species distribution models (SDMs), which are well established in many fields of biological research, are still uncommon in the agricultural risk analysis of pest insects. To exemplify the use of SDMs, we investigated the influence of environmental factors on the occurrence of Hyalesthes obsoletus Signoret (Hemiptera: Cixiidae). The planthopper is the only known vector of the grapevine yellows disease 'bois noir'. The study was conducted in 145 locations in the Baden region of southwest Germany. The planthopper was surveyed on host plant patches, consisting of stinging nettle and/or bindweeds. We used a stratified modelling framework where (1) species presence-absence data were related to an extensive environmental dataset using logistic regressions; and (2) different types of average models were developed based on an information theoretic method. The results show that the incidence of H. obsoletus is associated to above- as well as below-ground environmental factors, particularly to the amount of fine soil and average annual precipitation. This result was consistent across all average models. The relative importance of other environmental variables was dependent upon the average model under consideration and thus may vary according to their intended use, either the explanation of habitat requirements or the prediction and mapping of occurrence risks. The study showed that SDMs offer a quantification of species' habitat requirements and thus, could represent a valuable tool for pest management purposes. By providing examples of current issues of grapevine pests in viticulture, we discuss the use of SDMs in agricultural risk analysis and highlight their advantages and caveats.

Climate change may boost the invasion of the Asian needle ant

Following its introduction from Asia to the USA, the Asian needle ant (Pachycondyla chinensis) is rapidly spreading into a wide range of habitats with great negative ecological affects. In addition, the species is a concern for human health because of its powerful, sometimes deadly, sting. Here, we assessed the potential of P. chinensis to spread further and to invade entirely new regions. We used species distribution models to assess suitable areas under current climatic conditions and in 2020, 2050 and 2080. With a consensus model, combining five different modelling techniques, three Global Circulation (climatic) Models and two CO2 emission scenarios, we generated world maps with suitable climatic conditions. Our models suggest that the species currently has a far greater potential distribution than its current exotic range, including large parts of the world landmass, including Northeast America, Southeast Asia and Southeast America. Climate change is predicted to greatly exacerbate the risk of P. chinensis invasion by increasing the suitable landmass by 64.9% worldwide, with large increases in Europe (+210.1%), Oceania (+75.1%), North America (+74.9%) and Asia (+62.7%). The results of our study suggest P. chinensis deserves increased attention, especially in the light of on-going climate change.

Nowhere to invade: Rumex crispus and Typha latifolia projected to disappear under future climate scenarios

Future climate change has been predicted to affect the potential distribution of plant species. However, only few studies have addressed how invasive species may respond to future climate change despite the known effects of plant species invasion on nutrient cycles, ecosystem functions, and agricultural yields. In this study, we predicted the potential distributions of two invasive species, Rumex crispus and Typha latifolia, under current and future (2050) climatic conditions. Future climate scenarios considered in our study include A1B, A2, A2A, B1, and B2A. We found that these two species will lose their habitat under the A1B, A2, A2A, and B1 scenarios. Their distributions will be maintained under future climatic conditions related to B2A scenarios, but the total area will be less than 10% of that under the current climatic condition. We also investigated variations of the most influential climatic variables that are likely to cause habitat loss of the two species. Our results demonstrate that rising mean annual temperature, variations of the coldest quarter, and precipitation of the coldest quarter are the main factors contributing to habitat loss of R. crispus. For T. latifolia, the main factors are rising mean annual temperature, variations in temperature of the coldest quarter, mean annual precipitation, and precipitation of the coldest quarter. These results demonstrate that the warmer and wetter climatic conditions of the coldest season (or month) will be mainly responsible for habitat loss of R. crispus and T. latifolia in the future. We also discuss uncertainties related to our study (and similar studies) and suggest that particular attention should be directed toward the manner in which invasive species cope with rapid climate changes because evolutionary change can be rapid for species that invade new areas.

Effective control of aquatic invasive species in tropical Australia

Often ecologists and natural resource managers can easily access data on invasive species occurrence across a region. Yet, collecting species abundance data over a large area is arguably more important for decision making, but inherently costly, so methods which can provide robust information at low-cost are particularly valuable. Studies of species distribution often use occurrence data to build models of the environmental niche. Environmental suitability derived from such models may be used to predict the potential distributions of species. The ability of such models to predict spatial patterns in abundance have recently been demonstrated. Here we tested the relationship of environmental suitability with local abundance of an aquatic invasive species, olive hymenachne (Hymenachne amplexicaulis) in the Wet Tropics of Australia. Ordinary least squares and quantile regressions revealed a positive relationship between environmental suitability and local abundance of olive hymenachne. We expand on this and use the relationship between environmental suitability and local abundance to quantify the effectiveness of management (reduction in local abundance) under four different management investments. We show that the upper limit of abundance can be used to evaluate management effectiveness based on varying investments, and that ongoing management is the most effective at reducing local abundance. We discuss implications of this in addressing important problems in invasive species management.

Water loss in insects: an environmental change perspective

In the context of global environmental change much of the focus has been on changing temperatures. However, patterns of rainfall and water availability have also been changing and are expected to continue doing so. In consequence, understanding the responses of insects to water availability is important, especially because it has a pronounced influence on insect activity, distribution patterns, and species richness. Here we therefore provide a critical review of key questions that either are being or need to be addressed in this field. First, an overview of insect behavioural responses to changing humidity conditions and the mechanisms underlying sensing of humidity variation is provided. The primary sensors in insects belong to the temperature receptor protein superfamily of cation channels. Temperature-activated transient receptor potential ion channels, or thermoTRPs, respond to a diverse range of stimuli and may be a primary integrator of sensory information, such as environmental temperature and moisture. Next we touch briefly on the components of water loss, drawing attention to a new, universal model of the water costs of gas exchange and its implications for responses to a warming, and in places drying, world. We also provide an overview of new understanding of the role of the sub-elytral chamber for water conservation, and developments in understanding of the role of cuticular hydrocarbons in preventing water loss. Because of an increasing focus on the molecular basis of responses to dehydration stress we touch briefly on this area, drawing attention to the role of sugars, heat shock proteins, aquaporins, and LEA proteins. Next we consider phenotypic plasticity or acclimation responses in insect water balance after initial exposures to altered humidity, temperature or nutrition. Although beneficial acclimation has been demonstrated in several instances, this is not always the case. Laboratory studies show that responses to selection for enhanced ability to survive water stress do evolve and that genetic variation for traits underlying such responses does exist in many species. However, in others, especially tropical, typically narrowly distributed species, this appears not to be the case. Using the above information we then demonstrate that habitat alteration, climate change, biological invasions, pollution and overexploitation are likely to be having considerable effects on insect populations mediated through physiological responses (or the lack thereof) to water stress, and that these effects may often be non-intuitive.