An empiric estimate of the value of life: updating the renal dialysis cost-effectiveness standard

Catheter-Based Radiofrequency Renal Denervation in the United States: A Cost-Effectiveness Analysis Based on Contemporary Evidence

Background

Catheter-based radiofrequency renal denervation (RF RDN) has recently been approved as an adjunctive treatment for hypertensive patients without adequate blood pressure control. This study assessed the cost-effectiveness of RF RDN in the United States based on contemporary clinical evidence.

Methods

A decision-analytic Markov model projected costs, quality-adjusted life years (QALY), and clinical events for an active cohort treated with RF RDN and a control cohort treated with standard-of-care (defined as 1, 2, or 3 antihypertensive medications). Cohort demographics and therapy effect were derived from the SPYRAL HTN-ON MED study demonstrating an absolute 9.9 mm Hg reduction in office systolic blood pressure and 4.9 mm Hg reduction compared with sham control. Clinical event risk reduction from blood pressure lowering was based on a meta-regression of 47 hypertension trials. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio was evaluated against willingness-to-pay thresholds of $50,000 per QALY (high value) and $150,000 per QALY (intermediate value). Extensive scenario and sensitivity analyses were conducted to assess robustness of the findings.

Results

RF RDN yielded a significant risk reduction in clinical events (0.80 for stroke, 0.88 for myocardial infarction, and 0.85 for cardiovascular death over 10 years). Over lifetime, RF RDN added 0.34 QALY at an additional cost of $11,275, leading to an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of $32,732 per QALY. The cost-effectiveness of RF RDN was robust across a broad range of scenarios and sensitivity analyses.

Conclusions

Based on a lifetime projection, catheter-based RF RDN is a cost-effective, high-value intervention for hypertensive patients with uncontrolled hypertension.

Anchor versus parachute suturing technique in arteriovenous fistula creation for hemodialysis

INTRODUCTION

Chronic kidney disease (CKD) affects 13% of the global population and requires renal replacement therapy due to ESRD. Hemodialysis (HD) is the most common dialysis modality for ESRD patients, but establishing vascular access is challenging due to high morbidity and mortality rates. Arteriovenous fistulas (AVFs) are the gold standard for vascular access, but many fail due to anastomotic hemodynamics, vein diameter, and anastomatic suture technique. A prospective study was conducted to evaluate the impact of two continuous suturing techniques, the anchor technique and the parachute technique, on AVFs' initial outcomes.

METHODS

This randomized, controlled study involved adult patients who presented for AVF creation at our center. We divided the patients into two groups: anchors and parachutes. Four skilled vascular access surgeons performed the procedures. The primary goal was functional maturation of the AVF, defined as an AVF fistula ready to be cannulated with a cannulating vein length of at least 10 cm, a diameter of more than 6 mm, a depth of less than 6 mm, and a flow rate of 600 mL/min. Secondary goals included patency and complications such as bleeding, infection, steal syndrome, and aneurysmal dilatation at the anastomosis site. AVFs were evaluated immediately after surgery and during follow-up visits at the outpatient clinic. A duplex scan was performed to measure flow at various intervals. All patients provided appropriate written consent.

RESULT

The study involved 186 patients, with 86 excluded. 100 were randomized, with 5 cases losing follow-up and 3 deaths within 12 months. The follow-up continued until January 2024, with a mean of 8.6 months. The Parachute technique shows higher technical success (p value = 0.046) and primary patency at 30 days (p value = 0.014) compared to Anchor, but there is no statistical significance between both groups regarding functional maturation at 6 weeks (p value = 0.352). The parachute technique has a higher hematoma rate than the anchor technique (p value = 0.025), while other complications like intra-operative bleeding, postoperative bleeding, pseudoaneurysm formation, thrombosis, steal syndrome, and seroma formation show no significant differences. Nine patients, five of whom were diabetic and underwent conservative management, exhibited mild to moderate steal syndrome. This suggests an increased risk of steal syndrome among diabetic patients.

CONCLUSION

The parachute technique for AVF creation offers better technical success and short-term primary patency outcomes, while both parachute and anchor techniques are equally effective for long-term functional maturation and overall complication rates.

Cost-effectiveness analysis of endovascular vs surgical arteriovenous fistula creation in the United States

OBJECTIVE

In the United States, an estimated $2.8 billion annually is spent on vascular access and its complications. Endovascular arteriovenous fistula (endoAVF) creation is a novel, minimally invasive alternative to traditional surgical AV fistula (sAVF) creation in ≤60% of patients. Although cost effective in single-payer systems, the clinical and financial impact of endoAVF in the United States remains uncertain.

METHODS

We constructed a decision tree followed by a probabilistic cohort state-transition model to study the cost effectiveness of endoAVF vs sAVF creation. We conducted a systematic review to obtain input parameters including technical success, maturation, patency, and utility values. We derived costs from the Medicare 2022 fee schedule and from the literature. We used a 5-year time horizon, an annual discount rate of 3% for costs and utilities (measured in quality-adjusted life-years [QALYs]), and the common willingness-to-pay threshold of $50,000. One-way and Monte Carlo probabilistic sensitivity analyses were performed varying technical success, patency, reintervention, cost, and utility parameters.

RESULTS

In the base-case scenario, endoAVF ($30,129 average per-person costs, 2.19 QALYs gained, 65% patent at 5 years) was not cost effective compared with sAVF ($12.987 average per-person costs, 2.11 QALYs gained, 66% patent at 5 years), generating an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of $227,504 per QALY gained. In one-way sensitivity analyses, endoAVF becomes cost effective when the initial cost of sAVF creation exceeds endoAVF by ≥$600 (eg, if endoAVF creation costs ≤$3000 relative to the base-case sAVF cost of $3600), the additional QALYs gained from endoAVF exceeds 0.12 QALYs/year (eg, 0.81 QALYs gained/year from endoAVF compared with base-case sAVF 0.69 QALYs/year), the endoAVF maturation rate is >90% (base case 78%), or the sAVF maturation rate is <65% (base case 78%). Probabilistic sensitivity analysis demonstrated that sAVF remained the optimal strategy in 71% of iterations.

CONCLUSIONS

EndoAVF is not cost effective compared with sAVF when modeling 5-year outcomes. The main driver of sAVF remaining cost effective is the four times higher up-front cost for endoAVF creation, as well as a relatively low additional increase in quality of life for endoAVF. It will be important to establish how the endoAVF learning curve contributes to upfront costs and, given the annual cost attributed to vascular access nationally, a randomized controlled trial is warranted.

Association of Reducing the Recommended Colorectal Cancer Screening Age With Cancer Incidence, Mortality, and Costs in Canada Using OncoSim

Importance

Recent US guideline updates have advocated for colorectal cancer (CRC) screening to begin at age 45 years in average-risk adults, whereas Canadian screening programs continue to begin screening at age 50 years. Similarities in early-onset CRC rates in Canada and the US warrant discussion of earlier screening in Canada, but there is a lack of Canadian-specific modeling data to inform this.

Objective

To estimate the association of a lowered initiation age for CRC screening by biennial fecal immunochemical test (FIT) with CRC incidence, mortality, and health care system costs in Canada.

Design, Setting, and Participants/Exposures

This economic evaluation computational study used microsimulation modeling via the OncoSim platform.

Main Outcomes and Measures

Modeled rates of CRC incidence, mortality, and health care costs in Canadian dollars.

Results

This analysis included 4 birth cohorts (1973-1977, 1978-1982, 1983-1987, and 1988-1992) representative of the Canadian population accounting for previously documented effects of increasing CRC incidence in younger birth cohorts. Screening initiation at age 45 years resulted in a net 12 188 fewer CRC cases, 5261 fewer CRC deaths, and an added 92 112 quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) to the cohort population over a 40-year period relative to screening from age 50 years. Screening initiation at age 40 years yielded 18 135 fewer CRC cases, 7988 fewer CRC deaths, and 150 373 QALYs. The cost per QALY decreased with younger birth cohorts to a cost of $762 per QALY when Canadians born in 1988 to 1992 began screening at age 45 years or $2622 per QALY with screening initiation at age 40 years. Although costs associated with screening and resulting therapeutic interventions increased with earlier screening, the overall health care system cost of managing CRC decreased.

Conclusions and Relevance

This economic evaluation study using microsimulation modeling found that earlier screening may reduce CRC disease burden and add life-years to the Canadian population at a modest cost. Guideline changes suggesting earlier CRC screening in Canada may be justified, but evaluation of the resulting effects on colonoscopy capacity is necessary.

Mechanical Thrombectomy with Intravenous Thrombolysis versus Thrombolysis Alone for the Treatment of Stroke: A Systematic Review of Economic Evaluations

Mechanical thrombectomy has revolutionized the management of stroke by improving the recanalization rates and reducing deleterious consequences. It is now the standard of care despite the high financial cost. A considerable number of studies have evaluated its cost effectiveness. Therefore, this study aimed to identify economic evaluations of mechanical thrombectomy with thrombolysis compared with thrombolysis alone to provide an update of existing evidence, focusing on the period after proof of effectiveness of mechanical thrombectomy. Twenty-one studies were included in the review: 18 were model-based economic evaluations to simulate long-term outcomes and costs, and 19 were conducted in high-income countries. Incremental cost-effectiveness ratios ranged from -$5,670 to $74,216 per quality-adjusted life year. Mechanical thrombectomy is cost-effective in high-income countries and in the populations selected for clinical trials. However, most of the studies used the same data. There is a lack of real-world and long-term data to analyze the cost effectiveness of mechanical thrombectomy in treating the global burden of stroke.

Retrospective value assessment of a dedicated, trauma hybrid operating room

BACKGROUND

In traumatic hemorrhage, hybrid operating rooms offer near simultaneous performance of endovascular and open techniques, with correlations to earlier hemorrhage control, fewer transfusions, and possible decreased mortality. However, hybrid operating rooms are resource intensive. This study quantifies and describes a single-center experience with the complications, cost-utility, and value of a dedicated trauma hybrid operating room.

METHODS

This retrospective cohort study evaluated 292 consecutive adult trauma patients who underwent immediate (<4 hours) operative intervention at a Level I trauma center. A total of 106 patients treated before the construction of a hybrid operating room served as historical controls to the 186 patients treated thereafter. Demographics, hemorrhage-control procedures, and financial data as well as postoperative complications and outcomes were collected via electronic medical records. Value and incremental cost-utility ratio were calculated.

RESULTS

Demographics and severity of illness were similar between cohorts. Resuscitative endovascular occlusion of the aorta was more frequently used in the hybrid operating room. Hemorrhage control occurred faster (60 vs. 49 minutes, p = 0.005) and, in the 4- to 24-hour postadmission period, required less red blood cell (mean, 1.0 vs. 0 U, p = 0.001) and plasma (mean, 1.0 vs. 0 U, p < 0.001) transfusions. Complications were similar except for a significant decrease in pneumonia (7% vs. 4%, p = 0.008). Severe complications (Clavien-Dindo classification, ≥3) were similar. Across the patient admission, costs were not significantly different ($50,023 vs. $54,740, p = 0.637). There was no change in overall value (1.00 vs. 1.07, p = 0.778).

CONCLUSION

The conversion of our standard trauma operating room to an endovascular hybrid operating room provided measurable improvements in hemorrhage control, red blood cell and plasma transfusions, and postoperative pneumonia without significant increase in cost. Value was unchanged.

LEVEL OF EVIDENCE

Economic/Value-Based Evaluations; Level III.

Comparing risk of disinfection byproducts in drinking water under variable scenarios of seawater intrusion

The higher levels of halides in seawater increase bromide and iodide in the coastal aquifers, leading to higher concentrations of halogenated disinfection byproducts (DBPs). The populations in the coastal areas are susceptible to increased concentrations of DBPs while many DBPs are cyto- and genotoxic to mammalian cells, and are possible/probable human carcinogens. The implications of seawater intrusion on the concentrations of trihalomethanes (THMs) and haloacetic acids (HAAs), and the risks were analyzed by adding 0.0-2.0 % seawater (SW) (by volume) and chlorine to groundwater. Bromide and iodide concentrations in groundwater (0.0 %SW) were observed as 42.5 and non-detected (ND) μg/L respectively. With 2.0 %SW, these were spiked up to 1100 and 2.1 μg/L respectively. The most common THMs (THM4), iodinated THMs (I-THMs) and HAAs were 30.4, 0.13 and 27.9 μg/L for 0.0 % SW respectively. With 2.0 %SW, these values were 106.3, 1.6 and 72.9 μg/L, respectively. At 0.0 %SW, averages of chronic daily intakes (CDI) for THM4, HAAs and I-THMs were 2.61 × 10^-4, 2.26 × 10^-4 and 7.69 × 10^-7 mg/kg/day respectively, which were increased to 9.97 × 10^-4, 4.70 × 10^-4 and 9.47 × 10^-6 mg/kg/day, respectively for 2.0 %SW. For 0.0 %SW, overall cancer risks from few DBPs was 3.09 × 10^-5 (6.46 × 10^-6 - 7.23 × 10^-5) while at 1.0 % and 2.0 %SW, risks were 4.88 × 10^-5 (1.26 × 10^-5-1.08 × 10^-4) and 4.11 × 10^-5 (1.21 × 10^-5-9.28 × 10^-5) respectively. The reduction of risks for 2.0 %SW was due to the increase of bromoform (TBM), and decrease in bromodichloromethane (BDCM) and dibromochloromethane (DBCM) at 2.0 %SW. The disability-adjusted life years (DALY) loss showed an increasing trend from 0.0 %SW (DALY: 77.30) to 1.0 %SW (DALY: 122.0) while an increase to 2.0 %SW showed a decrease in DALY (DALY: 102.8). Future study on toxicity of other regulated and emerging DBPs is warranted to better predict cancer risks.

High-Suspicion Subcentimeter Thyroid Nodules: Cost Effectiveness of Active Surveillance versus Fine Needle Aspiration

PURPOSE

To compare the cost-benefit of active surveillance (AS) against immediate fine needle aspiration (FNA) of sonographically suspicious subcentimeter thyroid nodules.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

A Markov model was constructed to compare the cost-benefit of 3 strategies from the point of discovery until death: (a) Surveillance of all nodules, (b) Surveillance of nodules with positive cytology, and (c) Surgery of nodules with positive cytology. The reference case was a 40-year-old woman with a sonographically suspicious subcentimeter thyroid nodule. Transition probabilities, costs, and health state utilities were derived from the literature. Sensitivity analyses were performed to evaluate model uncertainty. Willingness-to-pay threshold was set at $100,000/quality-adjusted life year.

RESULTS

Surveillance of nodules with positive cytology dominated in the reference scenario and was cost-beneficial over Surveillance of all nodules, independent of the utility of AS. Surveillance of all nodules was cost-beneficial only at a life expectancy of <2.6 years or surveillance duration of <4 years.

CONCLUSIONS

While current guidelines recommend AS of sonographically suspicious subcentimeter nodules, the results of this study suggest that immediate FNA (Surveillance of nodules with positive cytology) is more cost-beneficial than AS (Surveillance of all nodules). Patients with positive cytology on FNA may subsequently opt for AS (Surveillance of nodules with positive cytology) or surgery (Surgery of nodules with positive cytology) according to their level of comfort (ie, utility) with AS.

Cost-Effectiveness Analysis of Trastuzumab Deruxtecan versus Trastuzumab Emtansine in Human Epidermal Growth Factor Receptor 2-Positive Metastatic Breast Cancer in the USA

INTRODUCTION

Based on data from the DESTINY-Breast03 trial, we performed a cost-effectiveness analysis of trastuzumab deruxtecan (T-DXd) in patients with human epidermal growth factor receptor 2 (HER2)-positive metastatic breast cancer who had been previously treated with trastuzumab and a taxane from the US payer perspective.

METHODS

We conducted a Markov model to assess the cost-effectiveness of T-DXd versus trastuzumab emtansine (T-DM1). The simulation time horizon for this model was the lifetime of patients. Transition probabilities were based on data from the DESTINY-Breast03 trial. Health utility data were derived from published studies. Outcome measures were costs (in 2022 US$), quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs), and the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER). One-way and probabilistic sensitivity analyses assessed the uncertainty of key model parameters and their joint impact on the base-case results.

RESULTS

The base-case results found that T-DXd provided an improvement of 3.90 QALYs compared with T-DM1, and the ICER was $220,533 per QALY. The one-way sensitivity analysis demonstrated that the utility value of progression-free survival, hazard ratios of T-Dxd versus T-DM1, and cost of T-Dxd contributed substantial uncertainty to the model. Probabilistic sensitivity analysis predicted T-DXd being cost-effective compared to T-DM1 was 0, 1, 16, and 46% at willingness-to-pay of $50,000, $100,000, $150,000, and 200,000 per QALY, respectively.

CONCLUSION

T-DXd was unlikely to offer a reasonable value for the money spent compared to T-DM1 in a US payer setting.

Quality of Life and Health-related Quality of Life in Patients with End-stage Kidney Disease Undergoing Hemodialysis: A Literature Review

Measurements of quality are intended to drive improvements in care and provide accountability regarding costs and quality. Quality of life (QoL) and health-related QoL (HRQoL) comprise personal perceptions, health, and socioenvironmental dimensions. This structured integrative review aimed to present and analyze the nature and significance of the predictors of QoL and HRQoL in patients with end-stage kidney disease (ESKD). The articles found through searching the main databases were assessed for sample size, design, and methodological limitations. The revised Wilson-Cleary conceptual framework of HRQoL and the World Health Organization's definition of QoL guided this review. Forty-five articles were selected (36 were observational or cross-sectional studies; nine were prospective). These articles reported a range of factors related to QoL and HRQoL characterized as physical, mental, socioeconomic, biological, and symptomatic. Few studies considered spiritual beliefs and cultural beliefs. There was a lack of consistency in the use of measures of QoL and HRQoL in ESKD. The most validated measures of HRQoL and QoL identified were the Short-Form 36 v2, the QoL Index - Dialysis, the Hospital, Anxiety, and Depression Scale, the Fatigue Severity Scale, the Itch Scale, the Spiritual Well-being Scale, and the Schedule for the Evaluation of QoL - Direct Weighting. Most studies were conducted in developed countries, with only two from the Middle East. The possible measures of QoL and HRQoL are health status, disease-specific, symptom-specific, spiritual, and individualized QoL measures. This set of measures is expected to capture the patients' own perceptions concerning their QoL and HRQoL.

Comparative cost-effectiveness of radiotherapy among older women with hormone receptor positive early-stage breast cancer

OBJECTIVE

The aim was to examine the real-world cost-effectiveness of breast-conserving surgery (BCS) plus hormonal therapy with radiotherapy, compared to hormonal therapy alone among women 66 and older with hormone receptor positive early-stage breast cancer in the United States (US).

METHODS

This study was conducted from a U.S. Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services perspective and an eight-year time horizon. Both costs (2020 US$) and health utilities (quality-adjusted life years, QALYs) were obtained from retrospective studies using the SEER linked with Medicare and Medicare Health Outcomes Survey, respectively. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of the addition of radiotherapy to hormonal therapy versus hormonal therapy alone after BCS was estimated by an unbiased doubly robust estimator. Sensitivity analyses were conducted through bootstrapping to estimate credible intervals.

RESULTS

The addition of radiotherapy to hormonal therapy after BCS yielded the highest clinical benefits (2.66 QALYs) and costs ($19,424.27) compared to its hormonal therapy alone after BCS (0.77 QALYS; $2,028.58). The ICER was estimated to be $9,174.94/QALY. Sensitivity analyses did not change the direction of the findings.

CONCLUSIONS

The results implicated that the combination of radiotherapy and hormonal therapy is cost-effective in the US.

The Health Value of Kidney Exchange and Altruistic Donation

OBJECTIVES

Living donor kidney transplantation (LTx) is the preferred treatment for patients with end-stage renal disease. Kidney exchange programs (KEPs) promote LTx by facilitating exchange of donors among patients who are not compatible with their donors. We analyze and maximize the efficacy and effectiveness of KEPS from a health value perspective and the health value of altruistic donation in KEPs.

METHODS

We developed a Markov model for the health outcomes of patients, which was embedded in a discrete event simulation model to assess the effectiveness of allocation policies in KEPs. A new allocation policy to maximize health value was developed on the basis of integer programing techniques. The evidence-based transition probabilities in the Markov model were based on data from the Dutch KEP using a variety of econometric models. Scenarios analysis was presented to improve robustness.

RESULTS

The efficacy of the Dutch KEP without altruistic donation is reflected by the increase in expected discounted quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) by 3.23 from 6.42 to 9.65. The present Dutch policy and the policy to maximize the number of transplants achieve 63% of the potential efficacy gain (2.11 discounted QALYs). The new policy achieves 69% of this gain (2.33 discounted QALYs). When systematically enrolling altruistic donors in the KEP, the new policy increased expected discounted QALYs by 4.05 to 10.27 and reduced inequities for patients with blood type O.

CONCLUSIONS

The Dutch KEP can increase health value for patients by more than half. An allocation policy that maximizes health outcomes and maximally allows altruistic donation can yield significant further improvements.

Cost-effectiveness analysis of a strategy to delay progression to dialysis and death among chronic kidney disease patients in Lima, Peru

BACKGROUND

The Renal Health Program (RHP) was implemented in 2013 as a secondary prevention strategy to reduce the incidence of patients initiating dialysis and overall mortality. A previous study found that adherent patients have 58% protection against progression to dialysis compared to non-adherent. The main objective of the study was to estimate the lifetime economic and health consequences of the RHP intervention to determine its cost-effectiveness in comparison with usual care.

METHODS

We use a Markov model of three health stages to simulate disease progression among chronic kidney disease patients in Lima, Peru. The simulation time-horizon was 30 years to capture the lifetime cost and health consequences comparing the RHP to usual care. Costs were estimated from the payer perspective using institutional data. Health outcomes included years lived free of dialysis (YL) and quality adjusted life years (QALY). We conducted a probabilistic sensitivity analysis (PSA) to assess the robustness of our estimates against parameter uncertainty.

RESULTS

We found that the RHP was dominant-cost-saving and more effective-compared to usual care. The RHP was 783USD cheaper than the standard of care and created 0.04 additional QALYs, per person. The Incremental Cost-Effectiveness Ratio (ICER) showed a cost per QALY gained of $21,660USD. In the PSA the RHP was dominant in 996 out of 1000 evaluated scenarios.

CONCLUSIONS

The RHP was cheaper than the standard of care and more effective due to a reduction in the incidence of patients progressing to dialysis, which is a very expensive treatment and many times inaccessible. We aim these results to help in the decision-making process of scaling-up and investment of similar strategies in Peru. Our results help to increase the evidence in Latin America where there is a lack of information in the long-term consequences of clinical-management-based prevention strategies for CKD patients.

Infections associated with cardiac electronic implantable devices: economic perspectives and impact of the TYRX™ antibacterial envelope

The occurrence of cardiac implantable electronic devices (CIED) infections and related adverse outcomes have an important financial impact on the healthcare system, with hospitalization length of stay (2-3 weeks on average) being the largest cost driver, including the cost of device system extraction and device replacement accounting for more than half of total costs. In the recent literature, the economic profile of the TYRX™ absorbable antibacterial envelope was analysed taking into account both randomized and non-randomized trial data. Economic analysis found that the envelope is associated with cost-effectiveness ratios below USA and European benchmarks in selected patients at increased risk of infection. Therefore, the TYRX™ envelope, by effectively reducing CIED infections, provides value according to the criteria of affordability currently adopted by USA and European healthcare systems.

Indwelling Pleural Catheter Drainage Strategy for Malignant Effusion: A Cost-Effectiveness Analysis

Rationale: The likelihood of achieving pleurodesis after indwelling pleural catheter (IPC) placement for malignant pleural effusion varies with the specific drainage strategy used: symptom-guided drainage, daily drainage, or talc instillation through the IPC (IPC + talc). The relative cost-effectiveness of one strategy over the other is unknown.Objectives: We performed a decision tree model-based analysis to ascertain the cost-effectiveness of each IPC drainage strategy from a healthcare system perspective.Methods: We developed a decision tree model using theoretical event probability data derived from three randomized clinical trials and used 2019 Medicare reimbursement data for cost estimation. The primary outcome was incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) over an analytical horizon of 6 months with a willingness-to-pay threshold of $100,000/quality-adjusted life-year (QALY). Monte Carlo probabilistic sensitivity analysis and one-way sensitivity analyses were conducted to measure the uncertainty surrounding base case estimates.Results: IPC + talc was a cost-effective alternative to symptom-guided drainage, with an ICER of $59,729/QALY. Monte Carlo probabilistic sensitivity analysis revealed that this strategy was favored in 54% of simulations. However, symptom-guided drainage was cost effective for pleurodesis rates >20% and for life expectancy <4 months. Daily drainage was not cost effective in any scenario, including for patients with nonexpandable lung, in whom it had an ICER of $2,474,612/QALY over symptom-guided drainage.Conclusions: For patients with malignant pleural effusion and an expandable lung, IPC + talc may be cost effective relative to symptom-guided drainage, although considerable uncertainty exists around this estimation. Daily IPC drainage is not a cost-effective strategy under any circumstance.

Mortality containment vs. Economics Opening: Optimal policies in a SEIARD model

We extend the classic approach (SIR) to a SEAIRD model with policy controls. A social planner's objective reflects the trade-off between mortality reduction and GDP, featuring its perception of the value of statistical life (PVSL). We introduce realistic and drastic limitations to the control available to it. Within this setup, we explore the results of various control policies. We notably describe the joint dynamics of infection and economy in different contexts with unique or multiple confinement episodes. Compared to other approaches, our contributions are: (i) to restrict the class of functions accessible to the social planner, and in particular to impose that they remain constant over some fixed periods; (ii) to impose implementation frictions, e.g. a lag in their implementation; (iii) to prove the existence of optimal strategies within this set of possible controls; iv) to exhibit a sudden change in optimal policy as the statistical value of life is raised, from laissez-faire to a sizeable lockdown level, indicating a possible reason for conflicting policy proposals.

Testing for Endogeneity of Covid-19 Patient Assignments*

A considerable number of individuals infected by COVID-19 died in self-isolation. This paper uses a graphical inference method to examine if patients were endogenously assigned to self-isolation during the early phase of COVID-19 epidemic in Ontario. The endogeneity of patient assignment is evaluated from a dependence measure revealing relationships between patients’ characteristics and their location at the time of death. We test for absence of assignment endogeneity in daily samples and study the dynamic of endogeneity. This methodology is applied to patients’ characteristics, such as age, gender, location of the diagnosing health unit, presence of symptoms, and underlying health conditions.

Predicting risk and loss of disability-adjusted life years (DALY) from selected disinfection byproducts in multiple water supply sources in Saudi Arabia

Disinfection byproducts (DBPs) in drinking water is an issue in many countries. Many DBPs are possible or probable human carcinogens while few DBPs pose cyto- and genotoxic effects to the mammalian cells. The populations are likely to consume DBPs with drinking water throughout their lifetimes. A number of DBPs are regulated in many countries to protect humans. In this study, human exposure, risk and disability-adjusted life years (DALY) were predicted from DBPs in multiple water supply systems, including groundwater (GW), desalinated water (DW) and blend water (BW). The averages of lifetime excess cancer risks from GW, DW and BW were 4.15 × 10^-6, 1.75 × 10^-5 and 2.59 × 10^-5 respectively. The populations in age groups of 0 - <2, 2-16 and >16 years contributed 25.4-25.7%, 28.6-29.6% and 45.0-45.7% to the total risks respectively. The DALY from GW, DW and BW were estimated to be 5.8, 27.0 and 39.9 years, respectively while the corresponding financial burdens were US$ 0.63, 2.93 and 4.34 million respectively. The findings are likely to assist in selecting the supply water sources to better control human exposure and risk from DBPs.

Valuing health outcomes: developing better defaults based on health opportunity costs

BACKGROUND

Current health economic analysis guidelines emphasize the importance of using nationally appropriate cost and valuation inputs. However, some countries lack national data, and some analyses focus on interventions with costs and benefits at regional or global scales.

METHODS

Recognizing the need for better estimates of appropriate values for application at these levels than those used in the past, we characterize population-weighted dollar per disability-adjusted life year (DALY) averted by World Bank Income Level based on available national estimates of the marginal productivity of the healthcare system.

RESULTS

The defaults suggested here reflect health opportunity costs across countries more consistent with existing evidence than those previously used or recommended. As countries change income levels and healthcare spending, and as additional or updated marginal productivity of healthcare expenditure estimates become available, we expect the defaults to change.

CONCLUSION

The best option for informing decisions around resource allocation in health care such that they improve health outcomes overall remains the use of time-appropriate country-specific estimates of the marginal productivity of the healthcare system. Instead of single, time-invariant defaults, health economists should seek to develop valuation inputs that better account for health opportunity costs and do so over time.

A call for harmonization of European kidney care: dialysis reimbursement and distribution of kidney replacement therapies

Background

We compare reimbursement for haemodialysis (HD) and peritoneal dialysis (PD) in European countries to assess the impact on government healthcare budgets. We discuss strategies to reduce costs by promoting sustainable dialysis and kidney transplantation.

Methods

This was a cross-sectional survey among nephrologists conducted online July–December 2016. European countries were categorized by tertiles of gross domestic product per capita (GDP). Reimbursement data were matched to kidney replacement therapy (KRT) data.

Results

The prevalence per million population of patients being treated with long-term dialysis was not significantly different across tertiles of GDP (P = 0.22). The percentage of PD increased with GDP across tertiles (4.9, 8.2, 13.4%; P &lt; 0.001). The HD-to-PD reimbursement ratio was higher in countries with the highest tertile of GDP (0.7, 1.0 versus 1.7; P = 0.007). Home HD was mainly reimbursed in countries with the highest tertile of GDP (15, 15 versus 69%; P = 0.005). The percentage of public health expenditure for reimbursement of dialysis decreased across tertiles of GDP (3.3, 1.5, 0.7%; P &lt; 0.001). Transplantation as a proportion of all KRT increased across tertiles of GDP (18.5, 39.5, 56.0%; P &lt; 0.001).

Conclusions

In Europe, dialysis has a disproportionately high impact on public health expenditure, especially in countries with a lower GDP. In these countries, the cost difference between PD and HD is smaller, and home dialysis and transplantation are less frequently provided than in countries with a higher GDP. In-depth evaluation and analysis of influential economic and political measures are needed to steer optimized reimbursement strategies for KRT.

The Impact of Frailty on Technique Failure and Mortality in Patients on Home Dialysis

Background:Patients on home dialysis therapies experience technique failure, which is associated with morbidity and mortality. Reasons for technique failure are complex, and often related to functional decline in the patient or caregiver. Frailty is associated with an increased risk of adverse health outcomes. We investigated the impact of frailty on technique failure and mortality in a prospective cohort of patients on home dialysis therapies.Methods:We collected objective (Fried criteria and Short Physical Performance Battery [SPPB]), and subjective (physician and nurse impression) measures of frailty from 109 prevalent home dialysis patients. Our primary outcome was a composite of technique failure, defined as a permanent unplanned transition (> 30 days in duration) to facility-based hemodialysis or all-cause death. The association between different frailty assessment tools and the primary composite outcome was evaluated using Cox models.Results:Fried criteria and physician impression was associated with a greater than 2-fold increase in risk of our composite outcome (HR: 2.10 [95% CI 1.09 - 3.99], 2.15 [95% CI 1.15 - 4.00, respectively] in adjusted analyses. Weakness and weight loss subdomains of the Fried criteria were both associated with an increased risk of our composite outcome in adjusted analyses (HR: 2.16 [95% CI 1.23 - 3.78], 2.69 [95% CI 1.39 - 5.40], respectively).Conclusions:Objective and subjective measures of frailty are associated with a more than 2-fold higher risk of technique failure or death in patients undergoing home dialysis. Assessing frailty as part of the clinical evaluation for home dialysis therapies may be useful for prognostication and clinical management.

Prospective multi-center study of surgeon's assessment of the gallbladder compared to histopathological examination to detect incidental malignancy

PURPOSE

Routine histopathological examination after cholecystectomy for gallstones is performed despite the low rates of incidental findings of malignancy. The aim of this study was to assess predictive values of macroscopic examination of cholecystectomy specimens by surgeons in gallstone disease.

METHODS

A prospective multi-center diagnostic study was carried out between December 2015 and March 2017 at four different centers. All patients undergoing cholecystectomy for gallstone disease were consecutively screened for eligibility. Patients whose ages are 18 to 80 years, and preoperative imaging findings without any pathology except cholelithiasis were included. The gallbladder was first evaluated macroscopically ex situ by two operating surgeons and rated as macroscopically benign (group S1), suspicious for a benign diagnosis (group S2), and suspicious for malignancy (group S3). Thereafter, a pathologist made a final histopathological examination whose results are grouped as chronic cholecystitis (group P1), benign or precancerous lesions in which only cholecystectomy is the adequate treatment modality (group P2), and carcinoma (group P3). Diagnostic accuracy of the surgeon's assessment to the histopathological examination was evaluated using sensitivity, specificity, positive and negative predictive values, and accuracy, and correlated by a kappa agreement coefficient.

RESULTS

A total of 1112 patients were included in this trial. The specificity rates were 96.5%, 100%, and 98.7% for group S1-group S2, group S1-group S3, and group S2-group S3, respectively. Accuracy rates to detect malignancy were 100% and 95. 2% for group S1 and group S2, respectively. Kappa coefficient values were 1.0 and 0.64 for group S1-group S3 and group S2-group S3, respectively (p < 0.001 for both).

CONCLUSION

Assessment of the gallbladder specimen and selective histopathological examination may be adequate after cholecystectomy for gallstone diseases. Such a procedure would have the potential to reduce costs and prevent unnecessary loss of labor productivity without affecting patients' safety. However, higher number of patients in more centers is needed to confirm this hypothesis.

Economic assessment of neonatal intensive care

Most of the studies on the costing of neonatal intensive care has concentrated on the costs associated with preterm infants which takes up more than half of neonatal intensive care unit (NICU) costs. The focus has been on determining the cost-effectiveness of extreme preterm infants and those at threshold of viability. While the costs of care have an inverse relationship with gestational age (GA) and the lifetime medical costs of the extreme preterm can be as high as $450,000, the total NICU expenditure are skewed towards the care of moderate and late preterm infants who form the main bulk of patients. Neonatal intensive care, has been found to be very cost-effective at $1,000 per term infant per QALY and $9,100 for extreme preterm survivor per QALY. For low and LMIC, where NICU resources are limited, the costs of NICU care is lower largely due to a patient profile of more term and preterm of greater GAs and correspondingly less intensity of care. Public health measures, neonatal resuscitation training, empowerment of nurses to do resuscitation, increasing the accessibility to essential newborn care are recommended cheaper cost-effective measures to reduce neonatal mortality in countries with high neonatal mortality rate, whilst upgraded neonatal intensive care services are needed to further reduce neonatal mortality rate once below 15 per 1,000 livebirths. Economic evaluation of neonatal intensive care should also include post discharge costs which mainly fall on the health, social and educational sectors. Strategies to reduce neonatal intensive care costs could include more widespread implementation of cost-effective methods of improving neonatal outcome and reducing neonatal morbidities, including access to antenatal care, perinatal interventions to delay preterm delivery wherever feasible, improving maternal health status and practising cost saving and effective neonatal intensive care treatment.

Orthopaedic registries with patient-reported outcome measures

Total joint arthroplasty is performed to decreased pain, restore function and productivity and improve quality of life.One-year implant survivorship following surgery is nearly 100%; however, self-reported satisfaction is 80% after total knee arthroplasty and 90% after total hip arthroplasty.Patient-reported outcomes (PROs) are produced by patients reporting on their own health status directly without interpretation from a surgeon or other medical professional; a PRO measure (PROM) is a tool, often a questionnaire, that measures different aspects of patient-related outcomes.Generic PROs are related to a patient's general health and quality of life, whereas a specific PRO is focused on a particular disease, symptom or anatomical region.While revision surgery is the traditional endpoint of registries, it is blunt and likely insufficient as a measure of success; PROMs address this shortcoming by expanding beyond survival and measuring outcomes that are relevant to patients - relief of pain, restoration of function and improvement in quality of life.PROMs are increasing in use in many national and regional orthopaedic arthroplasty registries.PROMs data can provide important information on value-based care, support quality assurance and improvement initiatives, help refine surgical indications and may improve shared decision-making and surgical timing.There are several practical considerations that need to be considered when implementing PROMs collection, as the undertaking itself may be expensive, a burden to the patient, as well as being time and labour intensive. Cite this article: EFORT Open Rev 2019;4 DOI: 10.1302/2058-5241.4.180080.

Assessing the magnitude and uncertainties of the burden of selected diseases attributable to extreme heat and extreme precipitation under a climate change scenario in Michigan for the period 2041-2070

BACKGROUND

Extreme heat (EH) and extreme precipitation (EP) events are expected to increase with climate change in many parts of the world. Characterizing the potential future morbidity and mortality burden of EH and EP and associated costs, as well as uncertainties in the estimates, can identify areas for public health intervention and inform adaptation strategies. We demonstrate a burden of disease and uncertainty assessment using data from Michigan, USA, and provide approaches for deriving these estimates for locations lacking certain data inputs.

METHODS

Case-crossover analysis adapted from previous Michigan-specific modeling was used to characterize the historical EH-mortality relationship by county poverty rate and age group. Historical EH-associated hospitalization and emergency room visit risks from the literature were adapted to Michigan. In the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's BenMAP software, we used a novel approach, with multiple spatially-varying exposures, to estimate all non-accidental mortality and morbidity occurring on EH days (EH days; days where maximum temperature 32.2-35 C or > 35 C) and EP days. We did so for two time periods: the "historical" period (1971-2000), and the "projected" period (2041-2070), by county.

RESULTS

The rate of all non-accidental mortality associated with EH days increased from 0.46/100,000 persons historically to 2.9/100,000 in the projected period, for 240 EH-attributable deaths annually. EH-associated ED visits increased from 12/100,000 persons to 68/100,000 persons, for 7800 EH-attributable emergency department visits. EP-associated ED visits increased minimally from 1.7 to 1.9/100,000 persons. Mortality and morbidity were highest among those aged 65+ (91% of all deaths). Projected health costs are dominated by EH-associated mortality ($280 million) and EH-associated emergency department visits ($14 million). A variety of sources contribute to a moderate-to-high degree of uncertainty around the point estimates, including uncertainty in the magnitude of climate change, population composition, baseline health rates, and exposure-response estimates.

CONCLUSIONS

The approach applied here showed that health burden due to climate may significantly rise for all Michigan counties by midcentury. The costs to health care and uncertainties in the estimates, given the potential for substantial attributable burden, provide additional information to guide adaptation measures for EH and EP.

The Economic Benefits of Reducing Racial Disparities in Health: The Case of Minnesota

This paper estimates the benefits of eliminating racial disparities in mortality rates and work weeks lost due to illness. Using data from the American Community Survey (2005–2007) and Minnesota vital statistics (2011–2015), we explore economic methodologies for estimating the costs of health disparities. The data reveal large racial disparities in both mortality and labor market non-participation arising from preventable diseases and illnesses. Estimates show that if racial disparities in preventable deaths were eliminated, the annualized number of lives saved ranges from 475 to 812, which translates into $1.2 billion to $2.9 billion per year in economic savings (in 2017 medical care inflation-adjusted dollars). After eliminating the unexplained racial disparities in labor market participation, an additional 4,217 to 9185 Minnesota residents would have worked each year, which equals $247.43 million to $538.85 million in yearly net benefits to Minnesota.

An International Analysis of Dialysis Services Reimbursement

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES

The prevalence of patients with ESKD who receive extracorporeal kidney replacement therapy is rising worldwide. We compared government reimbursement for hemodialysis and peritoneal dialysis worldwide, assessed the effect on the government health care budget, and discussed strategies to reduce the cost of kidney replacement therapy.

DESIGN, SETTING, PARTICIPANTS, & MEASUREMENTS

Cross-sectional global survey of nephrologists in 90 countries to assess reimbursement for dialysis, number of patients receiving hemodialysis and peritoneal dialysis, and measures to prevent development or progression of CKD, conducted online July to December of 2016.

RESULTS

Of the 90 survey respondents, governments from 81 countries (90%) provided reimbursement for maintenance dialysis. The prevalence of patients per million population being treated with long-term dialysis in low- and middle-income countries increased linearly with Gross Domestic Product per capita (GDP per capita), but was substantially lower in these countries compared with high-income countries where we did not observe an higher prevalence with higher GDP per capita. The absolute expenditure for dialysis by national governments showed a positive association with GDP per capita, but the percent of total health care budget spent on dialysis showed a negative association. The percentage of patients on peritoneal dialysis was low, even in countries where peritoneal dialysis is better reimbursed than hemodialysis. The so-called peritoneal dialysis-first policy without financial incentive seems to be effective in increasing the utilization of peritoneal dialysis. Few countries actively provide CKD prevention.

CONCLUSIONS

In low- and middle-income countries, reimbursement of dialysis is insufficient to treat all patients with ESKD and has a disproportionately high effect on public health expenditure. Current reimbursement policies favor conventional in-center hemodialysis.

Cost-Effectiveness of Total Hip Arthroplasty Versus Nonoperative Management in Normal, Overweight, Obese, Severely Obese, Morbidly Obese, and Super Obese Patients: A Markov Model

BACKGROUND

We estimated the cost-effectiveness of performing total hip arthroplasty (THA) vs nonoperative management (NM) among 6 body mass index (BMI) cohorts.

METHODS

We constructed a state-transition Markov model to compare the cost utility of THA and NM in the 6 BMI groups over a 15-year period. Model parameters for transition probability (risk of revision, re-revision, and death), utility, and costs (inflation adjusted to 2017 US dollars) were estimated from the literature. Direct medical costs of managing hip arthritis were accounted in the model. Indirect societal costs were not included. A 3% annual discount rate was used for costs and utilities. The primary outcome was the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of THA vs NM. One-way and Monte Carlo probabilistic sensitivity analyses of the model parameters were performed to determine the robustness of the model.

RESULTS

Over the 15-year time period, the ICERs for THA vs NM were the following: normal weight ($6043/QALYs [quality-adjusted life years]), overweight ($5770/QALYs), obese ($5425/QALYs), severely obese ($7382/QALYs), morbidly obese ($8338/QALYs), and super obese ($16,651/QALYs). The 2 highest BMI groups had higher incremental QALYs and incremental costs. The probabilistic sensitivity analysis suggests that THA would be cost-effective in 100% of the normal, overweight, obese, severely obese, and morbidly obese simulations, and 99.95% of super obese simulations at an ICER threshold of $50,000/QALYs.

CONCLUSION

Even at a willingness-to-pay threshold of $50,000/QALYs, which is considered low for the United States, our model showed that THA would be cost-effective for all obesity levels. BMI cut-offs for THA may lead to unnecessary loss of healthcare access.

Modelling the cost-effectiveness of tofacitinib for the treatment of rheumatoid arthritis in the United States

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES

Rheumatoid arthritis (RA) is a chronic, debilitating disease affecting an estimated 1.5 million patients in the US. The condition is associated with a substantial health and economic burden. An economic model was developed to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of tofacitinib (a novel oral Janus kinase inhibitor) versus biologic therapies commonly prescribed in the US for the treatment of RA.

METHODS

A cost-utility model was developed whereby sequences of treatments were evaluated. Response to treatment was modeled by HAQ change, and informed by a network meta-analysis. Mortality, resource use and quality of life were captured in the model using published regression analyses based on HAQ score. Treatment discontinuation was linked to response to treatment and to adverse events. Patients were modeled as having had an inadequate response to methotrexate (MTX-IR), or to a first biologic therapy (TNFi-IR).

RESULTS

The tofacitinib strategy was associated with cost savings compared with alternative treatment sequences across all modeled scenarios (i.e. in both the MTX-IR and TNFi-IR scenarios), with lifetime cost savings per patient ranging from $65,205 to $93,959 (2015 costs). Cost savings arose due to improved functioning and the resulting savings in healthcare expenditure, and lower drug and administration costs. The tofacitinib strategies all resulted in an increase in quality-adjusted life years (QALYs), with additional QALYs per patient ranging from 0.01 to 0.22.

CONCLUSIONS

Tofacitinib as a second-line therapy following methotrexate failure and as a third-line therapy following a biologic failure produces lower costs and improved quality of life compared with the current pathway of care.

A Framework to Guide Economic Analysis of Advance Care Planning

BACKGROUND

Advance care planning (ACP) is fundamental to guiding medical care at the end of life. Understanding the economic impact of ACP is critical to implementation, but most economic evaluations of ACP focus on only a few actors, such as hospitals.

OBJECTIVE

To develop a framework for understanding and quantifying the economic effects of ACP, particularly its distributional consequences, for use in economic evaluations.

DESIGN

Literature review of economic analyses of ACP and related costs to estimate magnitude and direction of costs and benefits for each actor and how data on these costs and benefits could be obtained or estimated.

RESULTS

ACP can lead to more efficient allocation of resources by reducing low-value care and reallocating resources to high-value care, and can increase welfare by aligning care to patient preferences. This economic framework considers the costs and benefits of ACP that accrue to or are borne by six actors: the patient, the patient's family and caregivers, healthcare providers, acute care settings, subacute and home care settings, and payers. Program implementation costs and nonhealthcare costs, such as time costs borne by patients and caregivers, are included. Findings suggest that out-of-pocket costs for patients and families will likely change if subacute or home care is substituted for acute care, and subacute care utilization is likely to increase while primary healthcare providers and acute care settings may experience heterogeneous effects.

CONCLUSIONS

A comprehensive economic evaluation of ACP should consider how costs and benefits accrue to different actors.

Cost-effectiveness of stereotactic radiosurgery versus whole-brain radiation therapy for up to 10 brain metastases

OBJECTIVE The JLGK0901 study found that stereotactic radiosurgery (SRS) is a safe and effective treatment option for treating up to 10 brain metastases. The purpose of this study is to determine the cost-effectiveness of treating up to 10 brain metastases with SRS, whole-brain radiation therapy (WBRT), or SRS and immediate WBRT (SRS+WBRT). METHODS A Markov model was developed to evaluate the cost effectiveness of SRS, WBRT, and SRS+WBRT in patients with 1 or 2-10 brain metastases. Transition probabilities were derived from the JLGK0901 study and modified according to the recurrence rates observed in the Radiation Therapy Oncology Group (RTOG) 9508 and European Organization for Research and Treatment of Cancer (EORTC) 22952-26001 studies to simulate the outcomes for patients who receive WBRT. Costs are based on 2015 Medicare reimbursements. Health state utilities were prospectively collected using the Standard Gamble method. End points included cost, quality-adjusted life years (QALYs), and incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs). The willingness-to-pay (WTP) threshold was $100,000 per QALY. One-way and probabilistic sensitivity analyses explored uncertainty with regard to the model assumptions. RESULTS In patients with 1 brain metastasis, the ICERs for SRS versus WBRT, SRS versus SRS+WBRT, and SRS+WBRT versus WBRT were $117,418, $51,348, and $746,997 per QALY gained, respectively. In patients with 2-10 brain metastases, the ICERs were $123,256, $58,903, and $821,042 per QALY gained, respectively. On the sensitivity analyses, the model was sensitive to the cost of SRS and the utilities associated with stable post-SRS and post-WBRT states. In patients with 2-10 brain metastases, SRS versus WBRT becomes cost-effective if the cost of SRS is reduced by $3512. SRS versus WBRT was also cost effective at a WTP of $200,000 per QALY on the probabilistic sensitivity analysis. CONCLUSIONS The most cost-effective strategy for patients with up to 10 brain metastases is SRS alone relative to SRS+WBRT. SRS alone may also be cost-effective relative to WBRT alone, but this depends on WTP, the cost of SRS, and patient preferences.

Understanding factors that influence the demand for dialysis among elderly in a multi-ethnic Asian society

BACKGROUND

Despite literature suggesting conservative management (CM) is a viable option for elderly comorbid ESRD patients, the vast majority in Singapore receive dialysis. We hypothesized that the high demand for dialysis is driven by 1) lack of knowledge of CM and relative benefits of dialysis to CM, 2) adherence to physician recommendations which favour dialysis, and 3) high subsidies for haemodialysis (HD).

METHODS

We tested these hypotheses via a survey, including a discrete choice experiment (DCE), administered to 151 elderly pre-dialysis kidney patients and their family caregivers.

RESULTS

Results are consistent with the hypotheses: 40% (95% Confidence Interval (CI) 32-48) of patients and 46% (CI 38-55) of caregivers reported not being aware of CM, and 43% (CI 35-51) of patients and 24% (CI 17-31) of caregivers could not provide information on expected survival for dialysis or CM. Yet, once aware of CM as an option, 54% of patients and 42% of caregivers chose CM. However, if their physician recommended dialysis, 49% (CI 40-58) of patients and 68% (CI 59-77) of caregivers switched their choice. Subsidies on HD further reduced demand for CM by 6 percentage points.

CONCLUSIONS

These results reveal that the high demand for dialysis is driven mostly by lack of awareness of CM as an option and by physician recommendations for dialysis over CM.

Reflections on end-of-life dialysis

The world population is aging and diseases such as diabetes mellitus and systemic arterial hypertension are increasing the risk of patients developing chronic kidney disease, leading to an increase in the prevalence of patients on dialysis. The expansion of health services has made it possible to offer dialysis treatment to an increasing number of patients. At the same time, dialysis survival has increased considerably in the last two decades. Thus, patients on dialysis are becoming more numerous, older and with greater number of comorbidities. Although dialysis maintains hydroelectrolytic and metabolic balance, in several patients this is not associated with an improvement in quality of life. Therefore, despite the high social and financial cost of dialysis, patient recovery may be only partial. In these conditions, it is necessary to evaluate the patient individually in relation to the dialysis treatment. This implies reflections on initiating, maintaining or discontinuing treatment. The multidisciplinary team involved in the care of these patients should be familiar with these aspects in order to approach the patient and his/her relatives in an ethical and humanitarian way. In this study, we discuss dialysis in the final phase of life and present a systematic way to address this dilemma.

Cost-Effectiveness of Total Knee Arthroplasty vs Nonoperative Management in Normal, Overweight, Obese, Severely Obese, Morbidly Obese, and Super-Obese Patients: A Markov Model

BACKGROUND

We estimated the cost-effectiveness of performing total knee arthroplasty (TKA) vs nonoperative management (NM) among 6 body mass index (BMI) cohorts.

METHODS

A Markov model was used to compare the cost-utility of TKA and NM in 6 BMI groups (nonobese [BMI 18.5-24.9], overweight [25-29.9], obese [30-34.9], severely obese [35-39.9], morbidly obese [40-49.9], and super-obese [50+] patients) over a 15-year period. Model parameters for transition probability (ie, revision, re-revision, death), utility, and costs were estimated from the literature. Direct medical costs but not indirect societal costs were included in the model. Costs and utilities were discounted 3% annually. The primary outcome was the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of TKA vs NM. One-way and probabilistic sensitivity analyses of the model parameters were performed to determine the robustness of the model.

RESULTS

Over the 15-year period, the ICERs for the TKA vs NM for the different BMI categories were nonobese ($3317/quality-adjusted life years [QALYs]), overweight ($2837/QALY), obese ($2947/QALY), severely obese ($3536/QALY), morbidly obese ($5531/QALY), and super-obese ($11,878/QALY). The higher BMI groups tended to have higher incremental QALYs and also higher incremental costs. The probabilistic sensitivity analysis with an ICER threshold of $30,000/QALY showed that TKA would be cost-effective in 100% of simulations of patients with a BMI<50 and 99.16% of super-obese simulations.

CONCLUSION

While performing TKA on super-obese patients is more expensive, the substantial improvements in patient outcomes make it cost-effective. Therefore, withholding TKA care based on a BMI would lead to an unjustified loss of health-care access.

Cost-effectiveness of multidisciplinary care in mild to moderate chronic kidney disease in the United States: A modeling study

BACKGROUND

Multidisciplinary care (MDC) programs have been proposed as a way to alleviate the cost and morbidity associated with chronic kidney disease (CKD) in the US.

METHODS AND FINDINGS

We assessed the cost-effectiveness of a theoretical Medicare-based MDC program for CKD compared to usual CKD care in Medicare beneficiaries with stage 3 and 4 CKD between 45 and 84 years old in the US. The program used nephrologists, advanced practitioners, educators, dieticians, and social workers. From Medicare claims and published literature, we developed a novel deterministic Markov model for CKD progression and calibrated it to long-term risks of mortality and progression to end-stage renal disease. We then used the model to project accrued discounted costs and quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) over patients' remaining lifetime. We estimated the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of MDC, or the cost of the intervention per QALY gained. MDC added 0.23 (95% CI: 0.08, 0.42) QALYs over usual care, costing $51,285 per QALY gained (net monetary benefit of $23,100 at a threshold of $150,000 per QALY gained; 95% CI: $6,252, $44,323). In all subpopulations analyzed, ICERs ranged from $42,663 to $72,432 per QALY gained. MDC was generally more cost-effective in patients with higher urine albumin excretion. Although ICERs were higher in younger patients, MDC could yield greater improvements in health in younger than older patients. MDC remained cost-effective when we decreased its effectiveness to 25% of the base case or increased the cost 5-fold. The program costed less than $70,000 per QALY in 95% of probabilistic sensitivity analyses and less than $87,500 per QALY in 99% of analyses. Limitations of our study include its theoretical nature and being less generalizable to populations at low risk for progression to ESRD. We did not study the potential impact of MDC on hospitalization (cardiovascular or other).

CONCLUSIONS

Our model estimates that a Medicare-funded MDC program could reduce the need for dialysis, prolong life expectancy, and meet conventional cost-effectiveness thresholds in middle-aged to elderly patients with mild to moderate CKD.

Free dialysis in Nepal: Logistical challenges explored

Nepal's Ministry of Health began offering free lifetime hemodialysis (HD) in 2016. There has been a large growth in renal replacement therapy (RRT) services offered in Nepal since 2010, when the last known data on the subject was published. In 2016, 42 HD centers existed (223% increase since 2010) serving 1975 end stage renal disease patients (303% increase since 2010); 36 nephrologists were registered (200% increase since 2010), 12 were trained in transplantation, and 790 transplants had been performed to date. We estimate the incidence of end stage renal disease to be 2900 patients (100 per million population). With an annual cost of approximately US$2300 per dialysis patient, offering free dialysis could potentially cost the government US$6.7 million per year, suggesting that 2.1% of the annual health budget would be allocated to 0.01% of the population. The geographic zone surrounding the capital city, Kathmandu, contains 50% of HD centers, but only 14.5% of Nepal's population. Forty-eight percent of the population lives within zones without HD service, therefore infrastructure challenges exist in providing equitable access to RRT. The aim of this article is to summarize the current statistics of RRT in Nepal.

Suicides as a response to adverse market sentiment (1980-2016)

Financial crises inflict significant human as well as economic hardship. This paper focuses on the human fallout of capital market stress. Financial stress-induced behavioral changes can manifest in higher suicide and murder-suicide rates. We find that these rates also correlate with the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth rate (negatively associated; a -0.25% drop [in the rate of change in annual suicides for a +1% change in the independent variable]), unemployment rate (positive link; 0.298% increase), inflation rate (positive link; 0.169% increase in suicide rate levels) and stock market returns adjusted for the risk-free T-Bill rate (negative link; -0.047% drop). Suicides tend to rise during periods of economic turmoil, such as the recent Great Recession of 2008. An analysis of Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) data of more than 2 million non-natural deaths in the US since 1980 reveals a positive correlation with unemployment levels. We find that suicides and murder-suicides associated with adverse market sentiment lag the initial stressor by up to two years, thus opening a policy window for government/public health intervention to reduce these negative outcomes. Both our models explain about 73 to 76% of the variance in suicide rates and rate of change in suicide rates, and deploy a total of four widely available independent variables (lagged and/or transformed). The results are invariant to the inclusion/exclusion of 2008 data over the 1980-2016 time series, the period of our study. The disconnect between rational decision making, induced by cognitive dissonance and severe financial stress can lead to suboptimal outcomes, not only in the area of investing, but in a direct loss of human capital. No economic system can afford such losses. Finance journal articles focus on monetary alpha, which is the return on a portfolio in excess of the benchmark; we think it is important to be aware of the loss of human capital as a consequence of market instability. This study makes one such an attempt.

Assessing and Communicating the Value of Biomedical Research: Results From a Pilot Study

PURPOSE

Assessing the impact of research requires an approach that is sensitive both to the context of the research and the perspective of the stakeholders trying to understand its benefits. Here, the authors report on a pilot that applied such an approach to research conducted at the Collaborative Center for Health Equity (CCHE) of the University of Wisconsin School of Medicine and Public Health.

METHOD

The pilot assessed the academic impact of CCHE's work; the networks between CCHE and community partners; and the reach of CCHE's programs, including an attempt to estimate return on investment (ROI). Data included bibliometrics, findings from a stakeholder survey and in-depth interviews, and financial figures.

RESULTS

The pilot illustrated how CCHE programs increase the capacity of community partners to advocate for their communities and engage with researchers to ensure that research benefits the community. The results illustrate the reach of CCHE's programs into the community. The authors produced an estimate of the ROI for one CCHE program targeting childhood obesity, and values ranged from negative to positive.

CONCLUSIONS

The authors experienced challenges using novel assessment techniques at a small scale including the lack of comparator groups and the scarcity of cost data for estimating ROI. This pilot demonstrated the value of research from a variety of perspectives-from academic to community. It illustrates how metrics beyond grant income and publications can capture the outputs of an academic health center in a way that may better align with the aims of the center and stakeholders.

Multidisciplinary Evaluation Leads to the Decreased Utilization of Lumbar Spine Fusion: An Observational Cohort Pilot Study

STUDY DESIGN

Observational cohort pilot study.

OBJECTIVE

To determine the impact of a multidisciplinary conference on treatment decisions for lumbar degenerative spine disease.

SUMMARY OF BACKGROUND DATA

Multidisciplinary decision making improves outcomes in many disciplines. The lack of integrated systems for comprehensive care for spinal disorders has contributed to the inappropriate overutilization of spine surgery in the United States.

METHODS

We implemented a multidisciplinary conference involving physiatrists, anesthesiologists, pain specialists, neurosurgeons, orthopaedic spine surgeons, physical therapists, and nursing staff. Over 10 months, we presented patients being considered for spinal fusion or who had a complex history of prior spinal surgery. We compared the decision to proceed with surgery and the proposed surgical approach proposed by outside surgeons with the consensus of our multidisciplinary conference. We also assessed comprehensive demographics and comorbidities for the patients and examined outcomes for surgical patients.

RESULTS

A total of 137 consecutive patients were reviewed at our multidisciplinary conference during the 10-month period. Of these, 100 patients had been recommended for lumbar spine fusion by an outside surgeon. Consensus opinion of the multidisciplinary conference advocated for nonoperative management in 58 patients (58%) who had been previously recommended for spinal fusion at another institution (χ  = 26.6; P < 0.01). Furthermore, the surgical treatment plan was revised as a product of the conference in 28% (16 patients) of the patients who ultimately underwent surgery (χ  = 43.6; P < 0.01). We had zero 30-day complications in surgical patients.

CONCLUSION

Isolated surgical decision making may result in suboptimal treatment recommendations. Multidisciplinary conferences can reduce the utilization of lumbar spinal fusion, possibly resulting in more appropriate use of surgical interventions with better candidate selection while providing patients with more diverse nonoperative treatment options. Although long-term patient outcomes remain to be determined, such multidisciplinary care will likely be essential to improving the quality and value of spine care.

LEVEL OF EVIDENCE

3.

Economic evaluation of sequencing strategies in HER2-positive metastatic breast cancer in Mexico: a contrast between public and private payer perspectives

PURPOSE

Breast cancer is the most common malignancy among women in Mexico. A large proportion of Mexican patients present with advanced disease, and 25% have HER2-positive tumors. We performed a cost-effectiveness analysis of different sequencing strategies of HER2-targeted agents in Mexico according to various payer perspectives.

METHODS

A Markov model was constructed to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of four different HER2-targeted treatment sequences among patients with HER2-positive metastatic breast cancer treated in Mexico according to three public and one private payer perspectives. Patients were followed weekly over their remaining life expectancies within the model. Health states considered were progression-free survival (PFS) 1st-3rd lines, and death. Transition probabilities between states were based on published trials. Cost data were obtained from official publications from Mexican healthcare institutions. The evaluated outcomes were PFS, OS, costs, QALYs, and incremental cost effectiveness ratio (ICER).

RESULTS

In the public payer perspective, sequences containing pertuzumab or T-DM1 were not cost-effective when compared with a sequence including the combination of trastuzumab/docetaxel as first line without subsequent T-DM1 or pertuzumab, even when utilizing alternate definitions for willingness to pay thresholds. In the private payer perspective, a sequence containing T-DM1 but not pertuzumab proved cost-effective at a lower clinical effectiveness.

CONCLUSIONS

In Mexico, the use of at least three lines of trastuzumab in combination with other therapies, but not with pertuzumab or TDM-1, represents the most cost-effective option for patients covered by the public healthcare system, and this sequence should be made available for all patients.

Depression screening with patient-targeted feedback in cardiology: The cost-effectiveness of DEPSCREEN-INFO

BACKGROUND

Although depression is common in patients with heart disease, screening for depression is much debated. DEPSCREEN-INFO showed that a patient-targeted feedback in addition to screening results in lower depression level six months after screening. The purpose of this analysis was to perform a cost-effectiveness analysis of DEPSCREEN-INFO.

METHODS

Patients with coronary heart disease or arterial hypertension were included. Participants in both groups were screened for depression. Participants in the intervention group additionally received a patient-targeted feedback of their result and recommended treatment options. A cost-utility analysis using quality-adjusted life years (QALY) based on the EQ-5D was performed. The time horizon was 6 months. Resource utilization was assessed by a telephone interview. Multiple imputation using chained equations was used. Net-benefit regressions controlled for prognostic variables at baseline were performed to construct cost-effectiveness acceptability curves. Different sensitivity analyses were performed.

RESULTS

375 participants (intervention group: 155; control group: 220) were included at baseline. After 6 months, in the intervention group adjusted total costs were lower (-€2,098; SE: €1,717) and more QALY were gained (0.0067; SD: 0.0133); yet differences were not statistically significant. The probability of cost-effectiveness was around 80% independent of the willingness-to-pay (range: €0/QALY-€130,000/QALY). The results were robust.

CONCLUSIONS

A patient-targeted feedback in addition to depression screening in cardiology is cost-effective with a high probability. This underpins the use of the patient-targeted feedbacks and the PHQ-9 that are both freely available and easy to implement in routine care.