Broadening the application of evolutionarily based genetic pest management

Biased allele transmission for herbicide resistance: a conditional gene drive

MAIN CONCLUSION

Herbicide application to plants heterozygous for herbicide resistance results in distorted segregation favoring resistant allele transmission resulting in a conditional gene drive. Brassica napus plants heterozygous for an allele conferring sulfonylurea resistance at a single locus exhibit normal Mendelian inheritance. However, following application of the herbicide, highly distorted segregation of herbicide resistance occurs among progeny. Screening progeny from controlled crosses demonstrated that the herbicide imposes in planta gametic selection against pollen and ovules with the recessive allele for herbicide susceptibility, as well as embryonic selection against embryos homozygous for the susceptible allele. Such inducible biased inheritance represents a conditional form of allele transmission following herbicide application and mimics a natural gene drive. We postulate that natural gene drives are common in plant populations and can operate in a conditional manner resulting in non-Mendelian inheritance in response to abiotic and biotic stresses.

Deployment of tethered gene drive for confined suppression in continuous space requires avoiding drive wave interference

Gene drives have great potential for suppression of pest populations and removal of exotic invasive species. CRISPR homing suppression drive is a powerful but unconfined drive, posing risks of uncontrolled spread. Thus, developing methods for confining a gene drive is of great significance. Tethered drive combines a confined system such as Toxin-Antidote Recessive Embryo drive with a strong drive such as a homing suppression drive. It can prevent the homing drive from spreading beyond the confined drive and can be constructed readily, giving it good prospects for future development. However, we have found that care must be taken when deploying tethered drive systems in some scenarios. Simulations of tethered drive in a panmictic population model reveal that successful deployment requires a proper release ratio between the two components, tailored to prevent the suppression drive from eliminating the confined system before it has the chance to spread. Spatial models where the population moves over a one-dimensional landscape display a more serious phenomenon of drive wave interference between the two tethered drive components. If the faster suppression drive wave catches up to the confined drive wave, success is still possible, but it is dependent on drive performance and ecological parameters. Two-dimensional simulations further restrict the parameter range for drive success. Thus, careful consideration must be given to drive performance and ecological conditions, as well as specific release proposals for potential application of tethered drive systems.

Population dynamics in spatial suppression gene drive models and the effect of resistance, density dependence, and life history

Due to their super-Mendelian inheritance, gene drive systems have the potential to provide revolutionary solutions to critical public health and environmental problems. For suppression drives, however, spatial structure can cause "chasing" population dynamics that may postpone target population elimination or even cause the drive to fail. In chasing, wild-type individuals elude the drive and recolonize previously suppressed areas. The drive can re-enter these recolonized areas, but often is not able to catch up to wild-type and finally eliminate it. Previous methods for chasing detection are only suitable to limited parameter ranges. In this study with expanded parameter ranges, we found that the shift from chasing dynamics to static equilibrium outcomes is continuous as drive performance is reduced. To quantify this, we defined a Weighted Average Nearest Neighbor statistic to assess the clustering degree during chasing, while also characterizing chasing by the per-generation chance of population elimination and drive loss. To detect chasing dynamics in local areas and to detect the start of chasing, we implemented Density-Based Spatial Clustering of Applications with Noise. Using these techniques, we determined the effect of arena size, resistance allele formation rate in both the germline and in the early embryo from maternally deposited Cas9, life history and reproduction strategies, and density-dependent growth curve shape on chasing outcomes. We found that larger real-world areas will be much more vulnerable to chasing and that species with overlapping generations, fecundity-based density dependence, and concave density-dependent growth curves have smaller and more clustered local chasing with a greater chance of eventual population elimination. We also found that embryo resistance and germline resistance hinder drive performance in different ways. These considerations will be important for determining the necessary drive performance parameters needed for success in different species, and whether future drives could potentially be considered as release candidates.

Transformative Approaches for Sustainable Weed Management: The Power of Gene Drive and CRISPR-Cas9

Weeds can negatively impact crop yields and the ecosystem's health. While many weed management strategies have been developed and deployed, there is a greater need for the development of sustainable methods for employing integrated weed management. Gene drive systems can be used as one of the approaches to suppress the aggressive growth and reproductive behavior of weeds, although their efficacy is yet to be tested. Their popularity in insect pest management has increased, however, with the advent of CRISPR-Cas9 technology, which provides specificity and precision in editing the target gene. This review focuses on the different types of gene drive systems, including the use of CRISPR-Cas9-based systems and their success stories in pest management, while also exploring their possible applications in weed species. Factors that govern the success of a gene drive system in weeds, including the mode of reproduction, the availability of weed genome databases, and well-established transformation protocols are also discussed. Importantly, the risks associated with the release of weed populations with gene drive-bearing alleles into wild populations are also examined, along with the importance of addressing ecological consequences and ethical concerns.

Manipulating the Destiny of Wild Populations Using CRISPR

Genetic biocontrol aims to suppress or modify populations of species to protect public health, agriculture, and biodiversity. Advancements in genome engineering technologies have fueled a surge in research in this field, with one gene editing technology, CRISPR, leading the charge. This review focuses on the current state of CRISPR technologies for genetic biocontrol of pests and highlights the progress and ongoing challenges of using these approaches.

Host association, environment, and geography underlie genomic differentiation in a major forest pest

Diverse geographic, environmental, and ecological factors affect gene flow and adaptive genomic variation within species. With recent advances in landscape ecological modelling and high-throughput DNA sequencing, it is now possible to effectively quantify and partition their relative contributions. Here, we use landscape genomics to identify determinants of genomic differentiation in the forest tent caterpillar, Malacosoma disstria, a widespread and irruptive pest of numerous deciduous tree species in North America. We collected larvae from multiple populations across Eastern Canada, where the species experiences a diversity of environmental gradients and feeds on a number of different host tree species, including trembling aspen (Populus tremuloides), sugar maple (Acer saccharum), red oak (Quercus rubra), and white birch (Betula papyrifera). Using a combination of reciprocal causal modelling (RCM) and distance-based redundancy analyses (dbRDA), we show that differentiation of thousands of genome-wide single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) among individuals is best explained by a combination of isolation by distance, isolation by environment (spatial variation in summer temperatures and length of the growing season), and differences in host association. Configuration of suitable habitat inferred from ecological niche models was not significantly related to genomic differentiation, suggesting that M. disstria dispersal is agnostic with respect to habitat quality. Although population structure was not discretely related to host association, our modelling framework provides the first molecular evidence of host-associated differentiation in M. disstria, congruent with previous documentation of reduced growth and survival of larvae moved between natal host species. We conclude that ecologically mediated selection is contributing to variation within M. disstria, and that divergent adaptation related to both environmental conditions and host association should be considered in ongoing research and management of this important forest pest.

Control of sheep flystrike: what's been tried in the past and where to from here

Flystrike remains a serious financial and animal welfare issue for the sheep industry in Australia despite many years of research into control methods. The present paper provides an extensive review of past research on flystrike, and highlights areas that hold promise for providing long-term control options. We describe areas where the application of modern scientific advances may provide increased impetus to some novel, as well as some previously explored, control methods. We provide recommendations for research activities: insecticide resistance management, novel delivery methods for therapeutics, improved breeding indices for flystrike-related traits, mechanism of nematode-induced scouring in mature animals. We also identify areas where advances can be made in flystrike control through the greater adoption of well-recognised existing management approaches: optimal insecticide-use patterns, increased use of flystrike-related Australian Sheep Breeding Values, and management practices to prevent scouring in young sheep. We indicate that breeding efforts should be primarily focussed on the adoption and improvement of currently available breeding tools and towards the future integration of genomic selection methods. We describe factors that will impact on the ongoing availability of insecticides for flystrike control and on the feasibility of vaccination. We also describe areas where the blowfly genome may be useful in providing impetus to some flystrike control strategies, such as area-wide approaches that seek to directly suppress or eradicate sheep blowfly populations. However, we also highlight the fact that commercial and feasibility considerations will act to temper the potential for the genome to act as the basis for providing some control options.

Gene drive strategies of pest control in agricultural systems: Challenges and opportunities

Recent advances in gene-editing technologies have opened new avenues for genetic pest control strategies, in particular around the use of gene drives to suppress or modify pest populations. Significant uncertainty, however, surrounds the applicability of these strategies to novel target species, their efficacy in natural populations and their eventual safety and acceptability as control methods. In this article, we identify issues associated with the potential use of gene drives in agricultural systems, to control pests and diseases that impose a significant cost to agriculture around the world. We first review the need for innovative approaches and provide an overview of the most relevant biological and ecological traits of agricultural pests that could impact the outcome of gene drive approaches. We then describe the specific challenges associated with using gene drives in agricultural systems, as well as the opportunities that these environments may offer, focusing in particular on the advantages of high-threshold gene drives. Overall, we aim to provide a comprehensive view of the potential opportunities and the remaining uncertainties around the use of gene drives in agricultural systems.

Population genomics of invasive rodents on islands: Genetic consequences of colonization and prospects for localized synthetic gene drive

Introduced rodent populations pose significant threats worldwide, with particularly severe impacts on islands. Advancements in genome editing have motivated interest in synthetic gene drives that could potentially provide efficient and localized suppression of invasive rodent populations. Application of such technologies will require rigorous population genomic surveys to evaluate population connectivity, taxonomic identification, and to inform design of gene drive localization mechanisms. One proposed approach leverages the predicted shifts in genetic variation that accompany island colonization, wherein founder effects, genetic drift, and island-specific selection are expected to result in locally fixed alleles (LFA) that are variable in neighboring nontarget populations. Engineering of guide RNAs that target LFA may thus yield gene drives that spread within invasive island populations, but would have limited impacts on nontarget populations in the event of an escape. Here we used pooled whole-genome sequencing of invasive mouse (Mus musculus) populations on four islands along with paired putative source populations to test genetic predictions of island colonization and characterize locally fixed Cas9 genomic targets. Patterns of variation across the genome reflected marked reductions in allelic diversity in island populations and moderate to high degrees of differentiation from nearby source populations despite relatively recent colonization. Locally fixed Cas9 sites in female fertility genes were observed in all island populations, including a small number with multiplexing potential. In practice, rigorous sampling of presumptive LFA will be essential to fully assess risk of resistance alleles. These results should serve to guide development of improved, spatially limited gene drive design in future applications.

Evading resistance to gene drives

Gene drives offer the possibility of altering and even suppressing wild populations of countless plant and animal species, and CRISPR technology now provides the technical feasibility of engineering them. However, population-suppression gene drives are prone to select resistance, should it arise. Here, we develop mathematical and computational models to identify conditions under which suppression drives will evade resistance, even if resistance is present initially. Previous models assumed resistance is allelic to the drive. We relax this assumption and show that linkage between the resistance and drive loci is critical to the evolution of resistance and that evolution of resistance requires (negative) linkage disequilibrium between the two loci. When the two loci are unlinked or only partially so, a suppression drive that causes limited inviability can evolve to fixation while causing only a minor increase in resistance frequency. Once fixed, the drive allele no longer selects resistance. Our analyses suggest that among gene drives that cause moderate suppression, toxin-antidote systems are less apt to select for resistance than homing drives. Single drives of moderate effect might cause only moderate population suppression, but multiple drives (perhaps delivered sequentially) would allow arbitrary levels of suppression. The most favorable case for evolution of resistance appears to be with suppression homing drives in which resistance is dominant and fully suppresses transmission distortion; partial suppression by resistance heterozygotes or recessive resistance are less prone to resistance evolution. Given that it is now possible to engineer CRISPR-based gene drives capable of circumventing allelic resistance, this design may allow for the engineering of suppression gene drives that are effectively resistance-proof.

Vector dynamics influence spatially imperfect genetic interventions against disease

Background and objectives

Genetic engineering and similar technologies offer promising new approaches to controlling human diseases by blocking transmission from vectors. However, in spatially structured populations, imperfect coverage of the vector will leave pockets in which the parasite may persist. Movement by humans may disrupt this local persistence and facilitate eradication when these pockets are small, spreading parasite reproduction outside unprotected areas and into areas that block its reproduction. Here, we consider the sensitivity of this process to biological details: do simple generalities emerge that may facilitate interventions?

Methodology

We develop formal mathematical models of this process similar to standard Ross–Macdonald models, but (i) specifying spatial structure of two patches, with vector transmission blocked in one patch but not in the other, (ii) allowing temporary human movement (travel instead of migration) and (iii) considering two different modes of mosquito biting.

Results

We find that there is no invariant effect of disrupting spatial structure with travel. For both biting models, travel out of the unprotected patch has different consequences than travel by visitors into the patch, but the effects are reversed between the two biting models.

Conclusions and implications

Overall, the effect of human travel on the maintenance of vector-borne diseases in structured habitats must be considered in light of the actual biology of mosquito abundances, biting dynamics and human movement patterns.

Lay summary: Genetic interventions against pathogens transmitted by insect vectors are promising methods of controlling infectious diseases. These interventions may be imperfect, leaving pockets where the parasite persists. How will human movement between protected and unprotected areas affect persistence? Mathematical models developed here show that the answer is ecology-dependent, depending on vector biting behavior.

Convergent Evolution of Locomotory Modes in Euarchontoglires

The research of phenotypic convergence is of increasing importance in adaptive evolution. Locomotory modes play important roles in the adaptive evolution of species in the Euarchontoglires, however, the investigation of convergent evolution of the locomotory modes across diverse Euarchontoglire orders is incomplete. We collected measurements of three phalangeal indices of manual digit III, including metacarpal of digit III (MC3), manus proximal phalanx of digit III (MPP3), and manus intermediate phalanx of digit III (MIP3), from 203 individuals of 122 Euarchontoglires species representing arboreal (orders Scandentia, Rodentia, and Primates), terrestrial (orders Scandentia and Rodentia), and gliding (orders Dermoptera and Rodentia) locomotory modes. This data can be separated into seven groups defined by order and locomotory mode. Based on combination of the three phalangeal indices, the Principle component analyses (PCA), phylomorphospace plot, and C-metrics analyses clustered the arboreal species of Scandentia, Rodentia, and Primates together and the terrestrial species of Scandentia and Rodentia together, showing the convergent signal in evolution of the arboreal (C1 = 0.424, P < 0.05) and terrestrial (C1 = 0.560, P < 0.05) locomotory modes in Euarchontoglires. Although the gliding species from Dermoptera and Rodentia did not cluster together, they also showed the convergent signal (C1 = 0.563, P < 0.05). Our work provides insight into the convergent evolution of locomotory modes in Euarchontoglires, and reveals that these three indices contribute valuable information to identify convergent evolution in Euarchontoglires.

Gene Drive Dynamics in Natural Populations: The Importance of Density Dependence, Space, and Sex

The spread of synthetic gene drives is often discussed in the context of panmictic populations connected by gene flow and described with simple deterministic models. Under such assumptions, an entire species could be altered by releasing a single individual carrying an invasive gene drive, such as a standard homing drive. While this remains a theoretical possibility, gene drive spread in natural populations is more complex and merits a more realistic assessment. The fate of any gene drive released in a population would be inextricably linked to the population's ecology. Given the uncertainty often involved in ecological assessment of natural populations, understanding the sensitivity of gene drive spread to important ecological factors is critical. Here we review how different forms of density dependence, spatial heterogeneity, and mating behaviors can impact the spread of self-sustaining gene drives. We highlight specific aspects of gene drive dynamics and the target populations that need further research.

Population-level multiplexing: A promising strategy to manage the evolution of resistance against gene drives targeting a neutral locus

CRISPR-based gene drives bias inheritance in their favour by inducing double-stranded breaks (DSBs) at wild-type homologous loci and using the drive transgene as a repair template-converting drive heterozygotes into homozygotes. Recent studies have shown that alternate end-joining repair mechanisms produce cut-resistant alleles that rapidly induce drive failure. Multiplexing-simultaneously targeting multiple sites at the wild-type locus-is commonly assumed to overcome this issue since resistance would need to develop at all target sites for the system to fail. This may work for some population suppression drives targeting essential (e.g. viability or fertility) genes if careful design can ensure cut-resistant alleles themselves have low fitness. However, here, models are used to demonstrate that this approach will be ineffective when targeting neutral loci. We then go on to compare the performance of four alternative population-level multiplexing approaches with standard individual-level multiplexing. Two of these approaches have mechanisms preventing them from becoming linked, thus avoiding multiple simultaneous DSBs and giving a large improvement. Releasing multiple unlinked drives gives a modest improvement, while releasing multiple drives that may become linked over time produces a decrease in performance under the conditions tested here. Based on performance and technical feasibility, we then take one approach forward for further investigation, demonstrating its robustness to different performance parameters and its potential for controlling very large target populations.

First Field Release of a Genetically Engineered, Self-Limiting Agricultural Pest Insect: Evaluating Its Potential for Future Crop Protection

Alternative, biologically-based approaches for pest management are sorely needed and one approach is to use genetically engineered insects. Herein we describe a series of integrated field, laboratory and modeling studies with the diamondback moth, Plutella xylostella, a serious global pest of crucifers. A "self-limiting" strain of Plutella xylostella (OX4319L), genetically engineered to allow the production of male-only cohorts of moths for field releases, was developed as a novel approach to protect crucifer crops. Wild-type females that mate with these self-limiting males will not produce viable female progeny. Our previous greenhouse studies demonstrated that releases of OX4319L males lead to suppression of the target pest population and dilution of insecticide-resistance genes. We report results of the first open-field release of a non-irradiated, genetically engineered self-limiting strain of an agricultural pest insect. In a series of mark-release-recapture field studies with co-releases of adult OX4319L males and wild-type counterparts, the dispersal, persistence and field survival of each strain were measured in a 2.83 ha cabbage field. In most cases, no differences were detected in these parameters. Overall, 97.8% of the wild-type males and 95.4% of the OX4319L males recaptured dispersed <35 m from the release point. The predicted persistence did not differ between strains regardless of release rate. With 95% confidence, 75% of OX4319L males released at a rate of 1,500 could be expected to live between 3.5 and 5.4 days and 95% of these males could be expected to be detected within 25.8-34.9 m from the release point. Moth strain had no effect on field survival but release rate did. Collectively, these results suggest similar field behavior of OX4319L males compared to its wild-type counterpart. Laboratory studies revealed no differences in mating competitiveness or intrinsic growth rates between the strains and small differences in longevity. Using results from these studies, mathematical models were developed that indicate release of OX4319L males should offer efficacious pest management of P. xylostella. Further field studies are recommended to demonstrate the potential for this self-limiting P. xylostella to provide pest suppression and resistance management benefits, as was previously demonstrated in greenhouse studies.

Antiviral Effectors and Gene Drive Strategies for Mosquito Population Suppression or Replacement to Mitigate Arbovirus Transmission by Aedes aegypti

The mosquito vector Aedes aegypti transmits arthropod-borne viruses (arboviruses) of medical importance, including Zika, dengue, and yellow fever viruses. Controlling mosquito populations remains the method of choice to prevent disease transmission. Novel mosquito control strategies based on genetically manipulating mosquitoes are being developed as additional tools to combat arbovirus transmission. Genetic control of mosquitoes includes two basic strategies: population suppression and population replacement. The former aims to eliminate mosquito populations while the latter aims to replace wild populations with engineered, pathogen-resistant mosquitoes. In this review, we outline suppression strategies being applied in the field, as well as current antiviral effector genes that have been characterized and expressed in transgenic Ae. aegypti for population replacement. We discuss cutting-edge gene drive technologies that can be used to enhance the inheritance of effector genes, while highlighting the challenges and opportunities associated with gene drives. Finally, we present currently available models that can estimate mosquito release numbers and time to transgene fixation for several gene drive systems. Based on the recent advances in genetic engineering, we anticipate that antiviral transgenic Ae. aegypti exhibiting gene drive will soon emerge; however, close monitoring in simulated field conditions will be required to demonstrate the efficacy and utility of such transgenic mosquitoes.

Rodent gene drives for conservation: opportunities and data needs

Invasive rodents impact biodiversity, human health and food security worldwide. The biodiversity impacts are particularly significant on islands, which are the primary sites of vertebrate extinctions and where we are reaching the limits of current control technologies. Gene drives may represent an effective approach to this challenge, but knowledge gaps remain in a number of areas. This paper is focused on what is currently known about natural and developing synthetic gene drive systems in mice, some key areas where key knowledge gaps exist, findings in a variety of disciplines relevant to those gaps and a brief consideration of how engagement at the regulatory, stakeholder and community levels can accompany and contribute to this effort. Our primary species focus is the house mouse, Mus musculus, as a genetic model system that is also an important invasive pest. Our primary application focus is the development of gene drive systems intended to reduce reproduction and potentially eliminate invasive rodents from islands. Gene drive technologies in rodents have the potential to produce significant benefits for biodiversity conservation, human health and food security. A broad-based, multidisciplinary approach is necessary to assess this potential in a transparent, effective and responsible manner.

Locally Fixed Alleles: A method to localize gene drive to island populations

Invasive species pose a major threat to biodiversity on islands. While successes have been achieved using traditional removal methods, such as toxicants aimed at rodents, these approaches have limitations and various off-target effects on island ecosystems. Gene drive technologies designed to eliminate a population provide an alternative approach, but the potential for drive-bearing individuals to escape from the target release area and impact populations elsewhere is a major concern. Here we propose the “Locally Fixed Alleles” approach as a novel means for localizing elimination by a drive to an island population that exhibits significant genetic isolation from neighboring populations. Our approach is based on the assumption that in small island populations of rodents, genetic drift will lead to alleles at multiple genomic loci becoming fixed. In contrast, multiple alleles are likely to be maintained in larger populations on mainlands. Utilizing the high degree of genetic specificity achievable using homing drives, for example based on the CRISPR/Cas9 system, our approach aims at employing one or more locally fixed alleles as the target for a gene drive on a particular island. Using mathematical modeling, we explore the feasibility of this approach and the degree of localization that can be achieved. We show that across a wide range of parameter values, escape of the drive to a neighboring population in which the target allele is not fixed will at most lead to modest transient suppression of the non-target population. While the main focus of this paper is on elimination of a rodent pest from an island, we also discuss the utility of the locally fixed allele approach for the goals of population suppression or population replacement. Our analysis also provides a threshold condition for the ability of a gene drive to invade a partially resistant population.

Spatial structure undermines parasite suppression by gene drive cargo

Gene drives may be used in two ways to curtail vectored diseases. Both involve engineering the drive to spread in the vector population. One approach uses the drive to directly depress vector numbers, possibly to extinction. The other approach leaves intact the vector population but suppresses the disease agent during its interaction with the vector. This second application may use a drive engineered to carry a genetic cargo that blocks the disease agent. An advantage of the second application is that it is far less likely to select vector resistance to block the drive, but the disease agent may instead evolve resistance to the inhibitory cargo. However, some gene drives are expected to spread so fast and attain such high coverage in the vector population that, if the disease agent can evolve resistance only gradually, disease eradication may be feasible. Here we use simple models to show that spatial structure in the vector population can greatly facilitate persistence and evolution of resistance by the disease agent. We suggest simple approaches to avoid some types of spatial structure, but others may be intrinsic to the populations being challenged and difficult to overcome.

Modeling the mutation and reversal of engineered underdominance gene drives

A range of gene drive systems have been proposed that are predicted to increase their frequency and that of associated desirable genetic material even if they confer a fitness cost on individuals carrying them. Engineered underdominance (UD) is such a system and, in one version, is based on the introduction of two independently segregating transgenic constructs each carrying a lethal gene, a suppressor for the lethal at the other locus and a desirable genetic "cargo". Under this system individuals carrying at least one copy of each construct (or no copies of either) are viable whilst those that possess just one of the transgenic constructs are non-viable. Previous theoretical work has explored various properties of these systems, concluding that they should persist indefinitely in absence of resistance or mutation. Here we study a population genetics model of UD gene drive that relaxes past assumptions by allowing for loss-of-function mutations in each introduced gene. We demonstrate that mutations are likely to cause UD systems to break down, eventually resulting in the elimination of introduced transgenes. We then go on to investigate the potential of releasing "free suppressor" carrying individuals as a new method for reversing UD gene drives and compare this to the release of wild-types; the only previously proposed reversal strategy for UD. This reveals that while free suppressor carrying individuals may represent an inexpensive reversal strategy due to extremely small release requirements, they are not able to return a fully wild-type population as rapidly as the release of wild-types.

Gene drives in plants: opportunities and challenges for weed control and engineered resilience

Plant species, populations and communities are under threat from climate change, invasive pathogens, weeds and habitat fragmentation. Despite considerable research effort invested in genome engineering for crop improvement, the development of genetic tools for the management of wild plant populations has rarely been given detailed consideration. Gene drive systems that allow direct genetic management of plant populations via the spread of fitness-altering genetic modifications could be of great utility. However, despite the rapid development of synthetic tools and their enormous promise, little explicit consideration has been given to their application in plants and, to date, they remain untested. This article considers the potential utility of gene drives for the management of wild plant populations, and examines the factors that might influence the design, spread and efficacy of synthetic drives. To gain insight into optimal ways to design and deploy synthetic drive systems, we investigate the diversity of mechanisms underlying natural gene drives and their dynamics within plant populations and species. We also review potential approaches for engineering gene drives and discuss their potential application to plant genomes. We highlight the importance of considering the impact of plant life-history and genetic architecture on the dynamics of drive, investigate the potential for different types of resistance evolution, and touch on the ethical, regulatory and social challenges ahead.

Tethered homing gene drives: A new design for spatially restricted population replacement and suppression

Optimism regarding potential epidemiological and conservation applications of modern gene drives is tempered by concern about the possibility of unintended spread of engineered organisms beyond the target population. In response, several novel gene drive approaches have been proposed that can, under certain conditions, locally alter characteristics of a population. One challenge for these gene drives is the difficulty of achieving high levels of localized population suppression without very large releases in the face of gene flow. We present a new gene drive system, tethered homing (TH), with improved capacity for both localization and population suppression. The TH drive is based on driving a payload gene using a homing construct that is anchored to a spatially restricted gene drive. We use a proof-of-concept mathematical model to show the dynamics of a TH drive that uses engineered underdominance as an anchor. This system is composed of a split homing drive and a two-locus engineered underdominance drive linked to one part of the split drive (the Cas endonuclease). We use simple population genetic simulations to show that the tethered homing technique can offer improved localized spread of costly transgenic payload genes. Additionally, the TH system offers the ability to gradually adjust the genetic load in a population after the initial alteration, with minimal additional release effort. We discuss potential solutions for improving localization and the feasibility of creating TH drive systems. Further research with models that include additional biological details will be needed to better understand how TH drives would behave in natural populations, but the preliminary results shown here suggest that tethered homing drives can be a useful addition to the repertoire of localized gene drives.

Gene-drive-mediated extinction is thwarted by population structure and evolution of sib mating

Background and objectives

Genetic engineering combined with CRISPR technology has developed to the point that gene drives can, in theory, be engineered to cause extinction in countless species. Success of extinction programs now rests on the possibility of resistance evolution, which is largely unknown. Depending on the gene-drive technology, resistance may take many forms, from mutations in the nuclease target sequence (e.g. for CRISPR) to specific types of non-random population structures that limit the drive (that may block potentially any gene-drive technology).

Methodology

We develop mathematical models of various deviations from random mating to consider escapes from extinction-causing gene drives. A main emphasis here is sib mating in the face of recessive-lethal and Y-chromosome drives.

Results

Sib mating easily evolves in response to both kinds of gene drives and maintains mean fitness above 0, with equilibrium fitness depending on the level of inbreeding depression. Environmental determination of sib mating (as might stem from population density crashes) can also maintain mean fitness above 0. A version of Maynard Smith’s haystack model shows that pre-existing population structure can enable drive-free subpopulations to be maintained against gene drives.

Conclusions and implications

Translation of mean fitness into population size depends on ecological details, so understanding mean fitness evolution and dynamics is merely the first step in predicting extinction. Nonetheless, these results point to possible escapes from gene-drive-mediated extinctions that lie beyond the control of genome engineering.

Lay summary

Recent gene drive technologies promise to suppress and even eradicate pests and disease vectors. Simple models of gene-drive evolution in structured populations show that extinction-causing gene drives can be thwarted both through the evolution of sib mating as well as from purely demographic processes that cluster drive-free individuals.

Super-Mendelian inheritance mediated by CRISPR-Cas9 in the female mouse germline

A gene drive biases the transmission of one of the two copies of a gene such that it is inherited more frequently than by random segregation. Highly efficient gene drive systems have recently been developed in insects, which leverage the sequence-targeted DNA cleavage activity of CRISPR-Cas9 and endogenous homology-directed repair mechanisms to convert heterozygous genotypes to homozygosity1-4. If implemented in laboratory rodents, similar systems would enable the rapid assembly of currently impractical genotypes that involve multiple homozygous genes (for example, to model multigenic human diseases). To our knowledge, however, such a system has not yet been demonstrated in mammals. Here we use an active genetic element that encodes a guide RNA, which is embedded in the mouse tyrosinase (Tyr) gene, to evaluate whether targeted gene conversion can occur when CRISPR-Cas9 is active in the early embryo or in the developing germline. Although Cas9 efficiently induces double-stranded DNA breaks in the early embryo and male germline, these breaks are not corrected by homology-directed repair. By contrast, Cas9 expression limited to the female germline induces double-stranded breaks that are corrected by homology-directed repair, which copies the active genetic element from the donor to the receiver chromosome and increases its rate of inheritance in the next generation. These results demonstrate the feasibility of CRISPR-Cas9-mediated systems that bias inheritance of desired alleles in mice and that have the potential to transform the use of rodent models in basic and biomedical research.

Gene drive systems: do they have a place in agricultural weed management?

There is a pressing need for novel control techniques in agricultural weed management. Direct genetic control of agricultural pests encompasses a range of techniques to introduce and spread novel, fitness-reducing genetic modifications through pest populations. Recently, the development of CRISPR-Cas9 gene editing has brought these approaches into sharper focus. Proof of concept for CRISPR-Cas9-based gene drives has been demonstrated for the control of disease-vectoring insects. This article considers whether and how gene drives may be applied in agricultural weed management, focusing on CRISPR-Cas9-based systems. Population-suppression drives might be employed to introduce and proliferate deleterious mutations that directly impact fitness and weediness, whereas population-sensitizing drives would seek to edit weed genomes so that populations are rendered more sensitive to subsequent management interventions. Technical challenges relating to plant transformation and gene editing in planta are considered, and the implementation of gene drives for timely and sustainable weed management is reviewed in the light of weed population biology. The technical, biological, practical and regulatory challenges remain significant. Modelling-based studies can inform how and if gene drives could be employed in weed populations. These studies are an essential first step towards determining the utility of gene drives for weed management. © 2018 The Author. Pest Management Science published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of Society of Chemical Industry.

Invasion and migration of spatially self-limiting gene drives: A comparative analysis

Recent advances in research on gene drives have produced genetic constructs that could theoretically spread a desired gene (payload) into all populations of a species, with a single release in one place. This attribute has advantages, but also comes with risks and ethical concerns. There has been a call for research on gene drive systems that are spatially and/or temporally self-limiting. Here, we use a population genetics model to compare the expected characteristics of three spatially self-limiting gene drive systems: one-locus underdominance, two-locus underdominance and daisy-chain drives. We find large differences between these gene drives in the minimum release size required for successfully driving a payload into a population. The daisy-chain system is the most efficient, requiring the smallest release, followed by the two-locus underdominance system, and then the one-locus underdominance system. However, when the target population exchanges migrants with a nontarget population, the gene drives requiring smaller releases suffer from higher risks of unintended spread. For payloads that incur relatively low fitness costs (up to 30%), a simple daisy-chain drive is practically incapable of remaining localized, even with migration rates as low as 0.5% per generation. The two-locus underdominance system can achieve localized spread under a broader range of migration rates and of payload fitness costs, while the one-locus underdominance system largely remains localized. We also find differences in the extent of population alteration and in the permanence of the alteration achieved by the three gene drives. The two-locus underdominance system does not always spread the payload to fixation, even after successful drive, while the daisy-chain system can, for a small set of parameter values, achieve a temporally limited spread of the payload. These differences could affect the suitability of each gene drive for specific applications.

Driving towards ecotechnologies

The prospect of using genetic methods to target vector, parasite, and reservoir species offers tremendous potential benefits to public health, but the use of genome editing to alter the shared environment will require special attention to public perception and community governance in order to benefit the world. Public skepticism combined with the media scrutiny of gene drive systems could easily derail unpopular projects entirely, especially given the potential for trade barriers to be raised against countries that employ self-propagating gene drives. Hence, open and community-guided development of thoughtfully chosen applications is not only the most ethical approach, but also the most likely to overcome the economic, social, and diplomatic barriers. Here we review current and past attempts to alter ecosystems using biological methods, identify key determinants of social acceptance, and chart a stepwise path for developers towards safe and widely supported use.

Conservation demands safe gene drive

Interest in developing gene drive systems to control invasive species is growing, with New Zealand reportedly considering the nascent technology as a way to locally eliminate the mammalian pests that threaten its unique flora and fauna. If gene drives successfully eradicated these invasive populations, many would rejoice, but what are the possible consequences? Here, we explore the risk of accidental spread posed by self-propagating gene drive technologies, highlight new gene drive designs that might achieve better outcomes, and explain why we need open and international discussions concerning a technology that could have global ramifications.

Arresting Evolution

Evolution in the form of selective breeding has long been harnessed as a useful tool by humans. However, rapid evolution can also be a danger to our health and a stumbling block for biotechnology. Unwanted evolution can underlie the emergence of drug and pesticide resistance, cancer, and weeds. It makes live vaccines and engineered cells inherently unreliable and unpredictable, and therefore potentially unsafe. Yet, there are strategies that have been and can possibly be used to stop or slow many types of evolution. We review and classify existing population genetics-inspired methods for arresting evolution. Then, we discuss how genome editing techniques enable a radically new set of approaches to limit evolution.

Spatial gene drives and pushed genetic waves

Gene drives have the potential to rapidly replace a harmful wild-type allele with a gene drive allele engineered to have desired functionalities. However, an accidental or premature release of a gene drive construct to the natural environment could damage an ecosystem irreversibly. Thus, it is important to understand the spatiotemporal consequences of the super-Mendelian population genetics before potential applications. Here, we use a reaction-diffusion model for sexually reproducing diploid organisms to study how a locally introduced gene drive allele spreads to replace the wild-type allele, although it possesses a selective disadvantage s > 0. Using methods developed by Barton and collaborators, we show that socially responsible gene drives require 0.5 < s < 0.697, a rather narrow range. In this "pushed wave" regime, the spatial spreading of gene drives will be initiated only when the initial frequency distribution is above a threshold profile called "critical propagule," which acts as a safeguard against accidental release. We also study how the spatial spread of the pushed wave can be stopped by making gene drives uniquely vulnerable ("sensitizing drive") in a way that is harmless for a wild-type allele. Finally, we show that appropriately sensitized drives in two dimensions can be stopped, even by imperfect barriers perforated by a series of gaps.

Overcoming evolved resistance to population-suppressing homing-based gene drives

The recent development of a CRISPR-Cas9-based homing system for the suppression of Anopheles gambiae is encouraging; however, with current designs, the slow emergence of homing-resistant alleles is expected to result in suppressed populations rapidly rebounding, as homing-resistant alleles have a significant fitness advantage over functional, population-suppressing homing alleles. To explore this concern, we develop a mathematical model to estimate tolerable rates of homing-resistant allele generation to suppress a wild population of a given size. Our results suggest that, to achieve meaningful population suppression, tolerable rates of resistance allele generation are orders of magnitude smaller than those observed for current designs for CRISPR-Cas9-based homing systems. To remedy this, we theoretically explore a homing system architecture in which guide RNAs (gRNAs) are multiplexed, increasing the effective homing rate and decreasing the effective resistant allele generation rate. Modeling results suggest that the size of the population that can be suppressed increases exponentially with the number of multiplexed gRNAs and that, with four multiplexed gRNAs, a mosquito species could potentially be suppressed on a continental scale. We also demonstrate successful proof-of-principle use of multiplexed ribozyme flanked gRNAs to induce mutations in vivo in Drosophila melanogaster - a strategy that could readily be adapted to engineer stable, homing-based drives in relevant organisms.

Towards the genetic control of invasive species

Invasive species remain one of the greatest threats to global biodiversity. Their control would be enhanced through the development of more effective and sustainable pest management strategies. Recently, a novel form of genetic pest management (GPM) has been developed in which the mating behaviour of insect pests is exploited to introduce genetically engineered DNA sequences into wild conspecific populations. These 'transgenes' work in one or more ways to reduce the damage caused by a particular pest, for example reducing its density, or its ability to vector disease. Although currently being developed for use against economically important insect pests, these technologies would be highly appropriate for application against invasive species that threaten biodiversity. Importantly, these technologies have begun to advance in scope beyond insects to vertebrates, which include some of the world's worst invasives. Here we review the current state of this rapidly progressing field and, using an established set of eradication criteria, discuss the characteristics which make GPM technologies suitable for application against invasive pests.

Evolution of Resistance Against CRISPR/Cas9 Gene Drive

CRISPR/Cas9 gene drive (CGD) promises to be a highly adaptable approach for spreading genetically engineered alleles throughout a species, even if those alleles impair reproductive success. CGD has been shown to be effective in laboratory crosses of insects, yet it remains unclear to what extent potential resistance mechanisms will affect the dynamics of this process in large natural populations. Here we develop a comprehensive population genetic framework for modeling CGD dynamics, which incorporates potential resistance mechanisms as well as random genetic drift. Using this framework, we calculate the probability that resistance against CGD evolves from standing genetic variation, de novo mutation of wild-type alleles, or cleavage repair by nonhomologous end joining (NHEJ)-a likely by-product of CGD itself. We show that resistance to standard CGD approaches should evolve almost inevitably in most natural populations, unless repair of CGD-induced cleavage via NHEJ can be effectively suppressed, or resistance costs are on par with those of the driver. The key factor determining the probability that resistance evolves is the overall rate at which resistance alleles arise at the population level by mutation or NHEJ. By contrast, the conversion efficiency of the driver, its fitness cost, and its introduction frequency have only minor impact. Our results shed light on strategies that could facilitate the engineering of drivers with lower resistance potential, and motivate the possibility to embrace resistance as a possible mechanism for controlling a CGD approach. This study highlights the need for careful modeling of the population dynamics of CGD prior to the actual release of a driver construct into the wild.

Potential of gene drives with genome editing to increase genetic gain in livestock breeding programs

BACKGROUND

This paper uses simulation to explore how gene drives can increase genetic gain in livestock breeding programs. Gene drives are naturally occurring phenomena that cause a mutation on one chromosome to copy itself onto its homologous chromosome.

METHODS

We simulated nine different breeding and editing scenarios with a common overall structure. Each scenario began with 21 generations of selection, followed by 20 generations of selection based on true breeding values where the breeder used selection alone, selection in combination with genome editing, or selection with genome editing and gene drives. In the scenarios that used gene drives, we varied the probability of successfully incorporating the gene drive. For each scenario, we evaluated genetic gain, genetic variance [Formula: see text], rate of change in inbreeding ([Formula: see text]), number of distinct quantitative trait nucleotides (QTN) edited, rate of increase in favourable allele frequencies of edited QTN and the time to fix favourable alleles.

RESULTS

Gene drives enhanced the benefits of genome editing in seven ways: (1) they amplified the increase in genetic gain brought about by genome editing; (2) they amplified the rate of increase in the frequency of favourable alleles and reduced the time it took to fix them; (3) they enabled more rapid targeting of QTN with lesser effect for genome editing; (4) they distributed fixed editing resources across a larger number of distinct QTN across generations; (5) they focussed editing on a smaller number of QTN within a given generation; (6) they reduced the level of inbreeding when editing a subset of the sires; and (7) they increased the efficiency of converting genetic variation into genetic gain.

CONCLUSIONS

Genome editing in livestock breeding results in short-, medium- and long-term increases in genetic gain. The increase in genetic gain occurs because editing increases the frequency of favourable alleles in the population. Gene drives accelerate the increase in allele frequency caused by editing, which results in even higher genetic gain over a shorter period of time with no impact on inbreeding.

Lethal gene drive selects inbreeding

The use of ‘selfish’ gene drive systems to suppress or even extinguish populations has been proposed on theoretical grounds for almost half a century. Creating these genes has recently become possible with CRISPR technology. One seemingly feasible approach, originally proposed by Burt, is to create a homing endonuclease gene (HEG) that inserts into an essential gene, enabling heterozygote viability but causing homozygote lethality. With 100% segregation distortion in gametes, such genes can cause profound population suppression if resistance does not evolve. Here, population genetic models are used to consider the evolution of inbreeding (specifically selfing) as a possible response to a recessively lethal HEG with complete segregation distortion. Numerical analyses indicate a rich set of outcomes, but selfing often evolves in response to the HEG, with a corresponding partial restoration of mean fitness. Whether selfing does indeed evolve and its effect in restoring fitness depends heavily on the magnitude of inbreeding depression. Overall, these results point toward an underappreciated evolutionary response to block the harmful effects of a selfish gene. They raise the possibility that extreme population suppression may be resisted by mechanisms that are independent of the molecular basis of gene drive. At the same time, the evolution of inbreeding is not assured even if the genetic basis for inbreeding is present. As the models here strictly apply to hermaphrodites (plants), an important next step is to consider inbreeding in populations with separate sexes.

Evolutionary biology and genetic techniques for insect control

The requirement to develop new techniques for insect control that minimize negative environmental impacts has never been more pressing. Here we discuss population suppression and population replacement technologies. These include sterile insect technique, genetic elimination methods such as the release of insects carrying a dominant lethal (RIDL), and gene driving mechanisms offered by intracellular bacteria and homing endonucleases. We also review the potential of newer or underutilized methods such as reproductive interference, CRISPR technology, RNA interference (RNAi), and genetic underdominance. We focus on understanding principles and potential effectiveness from the perspective of evolutionary biology. This offers useful insights into mechanisms through which potential problems may be minimized, in much the same way that an understanding of how resistance evolves is key to slowing the spread of antibiotic and insecticide resistance. We conclude that there is much to gain from applying principles from the study of resistance in these other scenarios - specifically, the adoption of combinatorial approaches to minimize the spread of resistance evolution. We conclude by discussing the focused use of GM for insect pest control in the context of modern conservation planning under land-sparing scenarios.

Engaging scientists: An online survey exploring the experience of innovative biotechnological approaches to controlling vector-borne diseases

Background

Pioneering technologies (e.g., nanotechnology, synthetic biology or climate engineering) are often associated with potential new risks and uncertainties that can become sources of controversy. The communication of information during their development and open exchanges between stakeholders is generally considered a key issue in their acceptance. While the attitudes of the public to novel technologies have been widely considered there has been relatively little investigation of the perceptions and awareness of scientists working on human or animal diseases transmitted by arthropods.

Methods

Consequently, we conducted a global survey on 1889 scientists working on aspects of vector-borne diseases, exploring, under the light of a variety of demographic and professional factors, their knowledge and awareness of an emerging biotechnology that has the potential to revolutionize the control of pest insect populations.

Results

Despite extensive media coverage of key developments (including releases of manipulated mosquitoes into human communities) this has in only one instance resulted in scientist awareness exceeding 50 % on a national or regional scale. We document that awareness of pioneering releases significantly relied on private communication sources that were not equally accessible to scientists from countries with endemic vector-borne diseases (dengue and malaria). In addition, we provide quantitative analysis of the perceptions and knowledge of specific biotechnological approaches to controlling vector-borne disease, which are likely to impact the way in which scientists around the world engage in the debate about their value.

Conclusions

Our results indicate that there is scope to strengthen already effective methods of communication, in addition to a strong demand by scientists (expressed by 79.9 % of respondents) to develop new, creative modes of public engagement.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s13071-015-0996-x) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Modeling the Manipulation of Natural Populations by the Mutagenic Chain Reaction

The use of recombinant genetic technologies for population manipulation has mostly remained an abstract idea due to the lack of a suitable means to drive novel gene constructs to high frequency in populations. Recently Gantz and Bier showed that the use of CRISPR/Cas9 technology could provide an artificial drive mechanism, the so-called mutagenic chain reaction (MCR), which could lead to rapid fixation of even a deleterious introduced allele. We establish the near equivalence of this system to other gene drive models and review the results of simple models showing that, when there is a fitness cost to the MCR allele, an internal equilibrium may exist that is usually unstable. In this case, introductions must be at a frequency above this critical point for the successful invasion of the MCR allele. We obtain estimates of fixation and invasion probabilities for the appropriate scenarios. Finally, we discuss how polymorphism in natural populations may introduce sources of natural resistance to MCR invasion. These modeling results have important implications for application of MCR in natural populations.

Evolutionary decay and the prospects for long-term disease intervention using engineered insect vectors

After a long history of applying the sterile insect technique to suppress populations of disease vectors and agricultural pests, there is growing interest in using genetic engineering both to improve old methods and to enable new methods. The two goals of interventions are to suppress populations, possibly eradicating a species altogether, or to abolish the vector’s competence to transmit a parasite. New methods enabled by genetic engineering include the use of selfish genes toward either goal as well as a variety of killer-rescue systems that could be used for vector competence reduction. This article reviews old and new methods with an emphasis on the potential for evolution of resistance to these strategies. Established methods of population suppression did not obviously face a problem from resistance evolution, but newer technologies might. Resistance to these newer interventions will often be mechanism-specific, and while it is too early to know where resistance evolution will become a problem, it is at least possible to propose properties of interventions that will be more or less effective in blocking resistance evolution.

Applying evolutionary biology to address global challenges

Two categories of evolutionary challenges result from escalating human impacts on the planet. The first arises from cancers, pathogens, and pests that evolve too quickly and the second, from the inability of many valued species to adapt quickly enough. Applied evolutionary biology provides a suite of strategies to address these global challenges that threaten human health, food security, and biodiversity. This Review highlights both progress and gaps in genetic, developmental, and environmental manipulations across the life sciences that either target the rate and direction of evolution or reduce the mismatch between organisms and human-altered environments. Increased development and application of these underused tools will be vital in meeting current and future targets for sustainable development.

Challenges in predicting the evolutionary maintenance of a phage transgene

BACKGROUND

In prior work, a phage engineered with a biofilm-degrading enzyme (dispersin B) cleared artificial, short-term biofilms more fully than the phage lacking the enzyme. An unresolved question is whether the transgene will be lost or maintained during phage growth - its loss would limit the utility of the engineering. Broadly supported evolutionary theory suggests that transgenes will be lost through a 'tragedy of the commons' mechanism unless the ecology of growth in biofilms meets specific requirements. We test that theory here.

RESULTS

Functional properties of the transgenic phage were identified. Consistent with the previous study, the dispersin phage was superior to unmodified phage at clearing short term biofilms grown in broth, shown here to be an effect attributable to free enzyme. However, the dispersin phage was only marginally better than control phages on short term biofilms in minimal media and was no better than control phages in clearing long term biofilms. There was little empirical support for the tragedy of the commons framework despite a strong theoretical foundation for its supposed relevance. The framework requires that the transgene imposes an intrinsic cost, yet the transgene was intrinsically neutral or beneficial when expressed from one part of the phage genome. Expressed from a different part of the genome, the transgene did behave as if intrinsically costly, but its maintenance did not benefit from spatially structured growth per se - violating the tragedy framework.

CONCLUSIONS

Overall, the transgene was beneficial under many conditions, but no insight to its maintenance was attributable to the established evolutionary framework. The failure likely resides in system details that would be used to parameterize the models. Our study cautions against naive applications of evolutionary theory to synthetic biology, even qualitatively.

Novel Genetic and Molecular Tools for the Investigation and Control of Dengue Virus Transmission by Mosquitoes

Aedes aegypti is the principal vector of dengue virus (DENV) throughout the tropical world. This anthropophilic mosquito species needs to be persistently infected with DENV before it can transmit the virus through its saliva to a new vertebrate host. In the mosquito, DENV is confronted with several innate immune pathways, among which RNA interference is considered the most important. The Ae. aegypti genome project opened the doors for advanced molecular studies on pathogen-vector interactions including genetic manipulation of the vector for basic research and vector control purposes. Thus, Ae. aegypti has become the primary model for studying vector competence for arboviruses at the molecular level. Here, we present recent findings regarding DENV-mosquito interactions, emphasizing how innate immune responses modulate DENV infections in Ae. aegypti. We also describe the latest advancements in genetic manipulation of Ae. aegypti and discuss how this technology can be used to investigate vector transmission of DENV at the molecular level and to control transmission of the virus in the field.

Wolbachia versus dengue: Evolutionary forecasts

A novel form of biological control is being applied to the dengue virus. The agent is the maternally transmitted bacterium Wolbachia, naturally absent from the main dengue vector, the mosquito Aedes aegypti. Three Wolbachia-based control strategies have been proposed. One is suppression of mosquito populations by large-scale releases of males incompatible with native females; this intervention requires ongoing releases. The other interventions transform wild mosquito populations with Wolbachia that spread via the frequency-dependent fitness advantage of Wolbachia-infected females; those interventions potentially require just a single, local release for area-wide disease control. One of these latter strategies uses Wolbachia that shortens mosquito life, indirectly preventing viral maturation/transmission. The other strategy uses Wolbachia that block viral transmission. All interventions can be undermined by viral, bacterial or mosquito evolution; viral virulence in humans may also evolve. We examine existing theory, experiments and comparative evidence to motivate predictions about evolutionary outcomes. (i) The life-shortening strategy seems the most likely to be thwarted by evolution. (ii) Mosquito suppression has a reasonable chance of working locally, at least in the short term, but long-term success over large areas is challenging. (iii) Dengue blocking faces strong selection for viral resistance but may well persist indefinitely at some level. Virulence evolution is not mathematically predictable, but comparative data provide no precedent for Wolbachia increasing dengue virulence. On balance, our analysis suggests that the considerable possible benefits of these technologies outweigh the known negatives, but the actual risk is largely unknown.

The coevolving web of life

Coevolution--reciprocal evolutionary change in interacting species--is one of the central biological processes organizing the web of life, and most species are involved in one or more coevolved interactions. We have learned in recent years that coevolution is a highly dynamic process that continually reshapes interactions among species across ecosystems, creating geographic mosaics over timescales sometimes as short as thousands or even hundreds of years. If we take that as our starting point, what should we now be asking about the coevolutionary process? Here I suggest five major questions that we need to answer if we are to understand how coevolution shapes the web of life. How evolutionarily dynamic is specialization to other species, and what is the role of coevolutionary alternation in driving those dynamics? Does the geographic mosaic of coevolution shape adaptation in fundamentally different ways in different forms of interaction? How does the geographic mosaic of coevolution shape speciation? How does the structure of reciprocal selection change during the assembly of large webs of interacting species? How important are genomic events such as whole-genome duplication (i.e., polyploidy) and whole-genome capture (i.e., hybridization) in generating novel webs of interacting species? I end by suggesting four points about coevolution that we should tell every new student or researcher in biology.