Trajectories of body mass index and risk of incident hypertension among a normal body mass index population: A prospective cohort study

Sex differences in the relationship between body mass index in Chinese adolescents and future risk of hypertension: a decade-long cohort study

OBJECTIVE

This study aimed to investigate the relationship between body mass index (BMI) during adolescence and the future risk of developing hypertension, with a particular focus on potential sex differences.

METHODS

This study was a secondary analysis based on a cohort study involving 2,020 adolescents aged 10-15 years who underwent health check-ups at the MJ Health Screening Center between 1999 and 2008. Cox proportional hazards regression models were used to evaluate the association between BMI and hypertension risk, with stratification by gender. Cox proportional hazards regression with cubic spline functions was employed to explore potential nonlinear relationships, and sensitivity analyses were conducted to ensure robustness.

RESULTS

The multivariate Cox proportional hazards regression model showed a significant positive association between BMI and hypertension risk in the overall adolescent population and particularly in males, with hazard ratios (HRs) of 1.204 (95% CI: 1.038-1.396) and 1.181 (95% CI: 1.013-1.377), respectively. In females, a nonlinear relationship with a threshold effect was identified, with an inflection point at a BMI of 24.11 kg/m². Beyond this threshold, each 1 kg/m² increase in BMI was associated with a 3.491-fold higher risk of hypertension (HR = 4.491, 95% CI: 1.185-17.020).

CONCLUSION

Among Chinese adolescent males, there was a positive dose-response relationship between BMI and future hypertension risk. In adolescent females, a specific nonlinear association with a threshold effect (inflection point: 24.11 kg/m²) was observed. Maintaining a BMI below 24.11 kg/m² in adolescent females may reduce their future risk of developing hypertension.

Association of sex-specific body mass index and waist circumference trajectories with non-alcoholic fatty liver disease incidence based on growth mixture modeling

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) is a common chronic liver disease. The relationship between the trajectories of obesity indicators and incident NAFLD is unknown. Therefore, this study aims to explore the sex-specific association between the trajectories of obesity indicators and the incidence of NAFLD.

METHODS AND RESULTS

In total, 9067 participants were recruited for this longitudinal study. Obesity indicators use body mass index (BMI) and waist circumference (WC). The trajectory of obesity indicators was analyzed using the growth mixture modeling. The multivariate logistic regression model was used to analyze the association between obesity indicators' trajectories and incident NAFLD. Over a median follow-up of 1.82 years, 1013 (11.74%) participants developed NAFLD. We identified BMI and WC change trajectories as the stable group, increasing group, and decreasing group. After adjusting for baseline level and other confounders, multivariate logistic regression analysis showed that compared with stable group of BMI, the increasing group, and decreasing group odds ratio and 95% confidence interval of NAFLD were 2.10 (1.06-4.15), and 0.25 (0.09-0.67) in men, and 1.82 (1.08-3.04) and 0.32 (0.16-0.64) in women. Compared with stable group of WC, the increasing group was 2.57 (1.39-4.74) in men, the increasing group, and decreasing group were 2.29 (1.70-3.10) and 0.28 (0.12-0.64) in women. Sensitivity analysis showed that the results were stable.

CONCLUSION

The BMI and WC changing trajectories are significantly associated with the incidence of NAFLD in men and women. Populations of real-world health examinations can be categorized based on obesity indicator changes to prevent NAFLD.

Associations of trajectories in body roundness index with incident cardiovascular disease: a prospective cohort study in rural China

Aims

The body roundness index (BRI) has good predictive ability for both body fat and visceral adipose tissue. Longitudinal BRI trajectories can reveal the potential dynamic patterns of change over time. This prospective study assessed potential associations between BRI trajectories and incident cardiovascular disease (CVD) in rural regions of Northeast China.

Methods

In total, 13,209 participants (mean age: 49.0 ± 10.3 years, 6,856 [51.9%] male) were enrolled with three repeated times of BRI measurements at baseline (2004-2006), 2008, and 2010, and followed up until 2017 in this prospective study. Using latent mixture model, the BRI trajectories were determined based on the data from baseline, 2008 and 2010. Composite CVD events (myocardial infarction, stroke, and CVD death combined) was the primary endpoint. Cox proportional-hazards models were used to analyze the longitudinal associations between BRI trajectories and incident CVD.

Results

Three distinct BRI trajectories were identified: high-stable (n = 538), moderate-stable (n = 1,542), and low-stable (n = 11,129). In total, 1,382 CVD events were recorded during follow-up. After adjustment for confounders, the moderate-stable and high-stable BRI groups had a higher CVD risk than did the low-stable BRI group, and the HR (95%CI) were 1.346 (1.154, 1.571) and 1.751 (1.398, 2.194), respectively. Similar associations were observed between the trajectories of BRI and the risk of stroke and CVD death. The high-stable group was also significantly and independently associated with CVD, myocardial infarction, stroke, and CVD death in participants aged <50 years.

Conclusion

BRI trajectory was positively associated with incident CVD, providing a novel possibility for the primary prevention of CVD in rural regions of China.

The inflammatory score and cardiovascular risk in young adults with overweight or obesity: The African-PREDICT study

OBJECTIVES

A complex relationship of adipokines and cytokines with cardiovascular risk motivates the use of an integrated approach to identify early signs of adiposity-related inflammation. We compared the inflammatory profiles, including an integrated inflammatory score, and cardiovascular profiles of young adults who are living with overweight and/or obesity (OW/OB).

DESIGN AND METHODS

This cross-sectional study included 1194 men and women with a median age of 24.5 ± 3.12 years from the African Prospective study on the Early Detection and Identification of Cardiovascular disease and Hypertension (African-PREDICT). Participants were divided into approximate quartiles based on adiposity measures (body mass index, waist circumference, and waist-to-height ratio). We compared an integrated inflammatory score (including leptin, adiponectin, interleukin-6, interleukin-8, interleukin-10, and tumour necrosis factor-α) as well as the individual inflammatory markers, between extreme quartiles. We also compared blood pressure measures, left ventricular mass index, carotid-femoral pulse wave velocity, and carotid intima-media thickness between these groups.

RESULTS

Individuals in the top quartile had worse inflammatory- and cardiovascular profiles as the integrated inflammatory score, leptin, interleukin-6, blood pressure measures, and left ventricular mass index were higher, while adiponectin was lower (all p ≤ 0.003). Unexpectedly, carotid-femoral pulse wave velocity was also lower (p < 0.001) in the top quartile. Exclusively in the top quartile, all adiposity measures related positively with the integrated inflammatory score and central systolic blood pressure (both r ≥ 0.24; p < 0.001), and negatively with interleukin-10 (all r ≤ -0.13; p < 0.03). Of these relationships, the correlations with the integrated inflammatory score were the strongest (p < 0.001). The percentage difference of being in the top quartile of all adiposity measures were higher for the inflammatory score (all ≥ 263 %), leptin (all ≥ 175 %), interleukin-6 (all ≥ 134 %), and tumour necrosis factor-α (all ≥ 26 %), and lower for adiponectin (all ≥ 57 %), interleukin-10 (all ≥ 9 %), and interleukin-8 (all ≥ 15 %) compared to being in the bottom quartile.

CONCLUSION

The inflammatory score, as a comprehensive marker of adiposity-related inflammation, is strongly related to adiposity and may be an indication of early cardiovascular risk in young adults; however, further work is required to establish the clinical use thereof.

Association of body mass index trajectory and hypertension risk: A systematic review of cohort studies and network meta-analysis of 89,094 participants

Introduction

Body mass index (BMI) trajectories, such as non-linear time trends and nonlinear changes in BMI with age, can provide information on the underlying temporal health patterns. The relationship between BMI trajectories and the risk of hypertension remains controversial.

Methods

PubMed, Embase, Cochrane, Scopus, and Web of Science databases were searched from their inception to January 31, 2022. We categorized BMI trajectories as "Stable high," "table normal," "Stable low," "Fluctuated (sharp increase)," and "Fluctuated (elevated-decrease)." The main outcome was the relative risk for the prevalence of hypertension in the different BMI trajectories. Potential sources of heterogeneity were examined using meta-regression and subgroup analysis. A publication bias test and Grading of Recommendations Assessment, Development and Evaluation (GRADE) approach were also used.

Results

The 18 cohort studies included 89,094 participants. Compared with the "Stable normal" trajectory, "Stable high," "Fluctuated (sharp increase)," and "Fluctuated (elevated-decrease)" trajectories were associated with an increased relative risk of hypertension: [RR (95% CI)]: 1.80 (1.29 2.50), p < 0.001; 1.53 (1.27 1.83), p < 0.001; 1.30 (1.24 1.37), p = 0.001, respectively. The "Stable low" trajectory was associated with a reduced risk of hypertension [0.83 (0.79 0.83), p < 0.001]. The "Stable high" trajectory (surface under the cumulative ranking curve = 88.1%) had the highest probability of developing hypertension in the population. The certainty of the evidence for direct comparisons of the incidence of hypertension between various BMI trajectories was generally very low.

Conclusion

Our findings suggested that "Stable high," "Fluctuated (sharp increase)," and "Fluctuated (elevated-decrease)" trajectories were associated with an increased relative risk of hypertension, with the "Stable high" trajectory most likely associated with hypertension.

Systematic review registration

[https://www.crd.york.ac.uk/prospero/display_record.php?RecordID=308575], identifier [CRD42022308575].

Sex-specific metabolic risk factors and their trajectories towards the non-alcoholic fatty liver disease incidence

PURPOSE

Non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) is a common chronic liver disease. This study examined sex-specific associations between NAFLD and metabolic factors and investigated the trajectory of risk factors.

METHODS

We retrospectively investigated 16,140 individuals from Beijing Health Management Cohort. Univariate and multivariate time-dependent Cox regression analyses were performed to identify independent risk factors for new-onset NAFLD. The trajectory of risk factors was investigated using the latent growth curve model and growth mixture model.

RESULTS

Over a median follow-up of 3.15 years, 2,450 (15.18%) participants developed NAFLD. The risk factors for NAFLD in men were increased body mass index (BMI); waist circumference (WC); triglyceride (TG), low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C), haemoglobin (Hb), and serum uric acid (SUA) levels; and platelet (PLT) count and decreased serum creatinine-to-body weight (sCr/bw) and high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C) levels. In women, the risk factors were increased BMI, WC, and fasting plasma glucose (FPG), TG, LDL-C, SUA, white blood cell (WBC), and PLT and decreased sCr/bw and HDL-C levels. In addition, BMI, LDL-C, sCr/bw and PLT changing trajectories were associated with NAFLD in men; BMI, WC, TG, LDL-C, SUA and sCr/bw trends was associated with NAFLD risk in women.

CONCLUSIONS

Development of NAFLD is associated with BMI, LDL-C, sCr/bw and PLT changing trajectories in men; BMI, WC, TG, LDL-C, SUA and sCr/bw trends are associated an increased risk of NAFLD in women. Deterioration of metabolic risk factors status can be a predictor of NAFLD many years before its occurrence.

Elevated body mass index increases the risk of cardiovascular events in hypertensive patients accompanied with obstructive sleep apnea: A cohort study

BACKGROUND

Effects of body mass index (BMI) on cardiovascular events are inconsistent. We aimed to investigate the association of BMI with cardiovascular events in hypertensives with obstructive sleep apnea (OSA).

METHODS

Hypertensives with OSA diagnosed with polysomnography between 2011 and 2013 in UROSAH cohort were followed up till Jan 2021. Outcomes were non-fatal cardiovascular events and cardiac death. Cox regression was used to estimate the relationship of continuous and categorical BMI with total and specific outcomes. Sensitivity analyses were performed by excluding those on OSA treatment or underweight patients. Stratified analyses were conducted by parameters including sex and age.

RESULTS

2239 hypertensives with OSA were included with 405 normal weight (BMI<25 kg/m²), 1164 overweight (25-29.9 kg/m²) and 670 obesity (≥30 kg/m²). 206 non-fatal cardiovascular events and 18 cardiac death were recorded during 6.6 years follow-up. Compared with normal weight group, overweight (HR=1.53, 95%CI: 1.01-2.32, P = 0.047) and obesity groups (1.85, 1.19-2.86, P = 0.006) showed increased risk for cardiovascular events, significant in obesity group and marginal in overweight group in fully-adjusted model. In specific events, obesity showed significantly elevated HR for non-fatal cardiovascular events (1.64, 1.04-2.60, P = 0.035). Continuous BMI showed significantly increased HR for total and specific events in all models. Sensitivity analysis yielded consistent results. In stratification analysis, stronger association between obesity and cardiovascular events was observed in the young (HR=5.97, P interaction=0.030).

CONCLUSIONS

BMI is in positive association with cardiovascular events in hypertensives with OSA, emphasizing importance of maintaining healthy BMI for prevention of adverse events in this population, on the basis of guideline-recommended treatment.

Gender-specific predictive ability for the risk of hypertension incidence related to baseline level or trajectories of adiposity indices: a cohort study of functional community

BACKGROUND

Early prevention of hypertension is important for global cardiovascular disease morbidity and mortality. This study aims to explore better predictors for hypertension incidence related to baseline level or trajectories of adiposity indices, as well as the gender-specific effect.

METHODS

6085 subjects from a functional community cohort in urban Beijing participated in our study. Restricted cubic splines were used to estimate nonlinear associations of body mass index (BMI) and waist-to-height ratio (WHtR) as continuous variable with risk of hypertension. Stepwise logistic regression model was performed to estimate the relative risks (RRs) of adiposity indices and metabolic status, adjusted for covariates. Nomogram models and receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis was used to evaluate the predictive power of BMI trajectory groups and WHtR trajectory groups on hypertension incidence. Further, all analysis were performed by gender.

RESULTS

The risk of hypertension incidence was related to BMI trajectory groups (persistent overweight: RR = 1.88, 95% CI: 1.48-2.37; persistent obesity: RR = 2.79, 95% CI: 2.18-3.56; persistent the highest: RR = 4.30, 95% CI: 3.20-5.78) and WHtR trajectory groups (persistent medium: RR = 2.69, 95% CI: 2.07-3.50; persistent high: RR = 3.85, 95% CI: 2.92-5.09; increasing to higher: RR = 7.00, 95% CI: 4.96-9.89). In total population, BMI trajectories and WHtR trajectories showed similar ability to predict the risk of hypertension incidence with AUC 0.723 and 0.726, respectively. After stratified by gender, both BMI trajectories and WHtR trajectories showed higher power in female than male (BMI trajectories: 0.762 vs. 0.661; WHtR trajectories: 0.768 vs. 0.661).

CONCLUSIONS

BMI and WHtR trajectories have higher predictive power for hypertension incidence compared to baseline data. Females are more vulnerable to obesity than males.