Validation of hepatocellular carcinoma risk scores in Japanese chronic hepatitis B cohort receiving nucleot(s)ide analog

Characterization and Detection Strategy Exploration in Cryptogenic Hepatocellular Carcinoma: Insights From a Super-Aged Region in Japan

BACKGROUND AND AIM

In recent years, there has been a rise in cryptogenic hepatocellular carcinoma (c-HCC) cases in Japan, posing a detection challenge due to an unknown etiology. This study aims to enhance diagnostic strategies for c-HCC by analyzing its characteristics and exploring current opportunities for detection.

METHODS

A retrospective study was conducted from April 2012 to March 2022, enrolling 372 newly diagnosed hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) patients. Excluding cases associated with hepatitis viral infection, alcoholic liver disease, non-alcoholic fatty liver disease/steatohepatitis, autoimmune hepatitis, primary biliary cholangitis, and congestive hepatopathy, the study specifically focused on genuine c-HCC. The analysis delved into the characteristics, detection opportunities, and survival outcomes associated with c-HCC.

RESULTS

Among the non-viral HCC cases, 55 patients (29.3%) (34 men and 21 women) were diagnosed with c-HCC, making it the second-highest etiology. Notably, individuals with c-HCC, typically aged 60 and above (median age 76.0), exhibited a women predominance and presented with larger tumors (4.5 cm vs. 2.5 cm), correlating with a poorer prognosis. Cirrhosis was notably absent in most c-HCC cases (72.7%), and more than half (56.4%) did not have diabetes mellitus (DM). Diagnostic pathways for c-HCC primarily involved incidental imaging (47%) and symptoms (24%). Within the cohort of c-HCC, the prognosis for symptomatic cases is notably unfavorable compared to other cases [median survival time 19.0 (7.0-45.0) months vs. 47.0 (29.0-76.0) months, p = 0.029]. In the multivariate regression analysis, age and women emerged as independent factors associated with c-HCC. Rather than a significant increase in women, there is a narrowing gender gap.

CONCLUSION

Patients with c-HCC were predominantly elderly, without cirrhosis or diabetes, and exhibited minimal gender differences. Detection often occurred incidentally through abdominal imaging. Considering the limitations of conventional surveillance, it seems reasonable to propose that abdominal imaging be included in cancer screening, particularly for individuals aged 60 and older.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

1610A127.

Evaluation of PAGE-B Score for Hepatocellular Carcinoma Development in Chronic Hepatitis B Patients: Reliability, Validity, and Responsiveness

Chronic hepatitis B (CHB) constitutes a major global public health issue, affecting millions of individuals. Despite the implementation of robust vaccination programs, the hepatitis B virus (HBV) significantly influences morbidity and mortality rates. CHB emerges as one of the leading causes of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), introducing a major challenge in the effective management of CHB patients. Therefore, it is of utmost clinical importance to diligently monitor individuals with CHB who are at high risk of HCC development. While various prognostic scores have been developed for surveillance and screening purposes, their accuracy in predicting HCC risk may be limited, particularly in patients under treatment with nucleos(t)ide analogues. The PAGE-B model, incorporating age, gender, and platelet count, has exhibited remarkable accuracy, validity, and reliability in predicting HCC occurrence among CHB patients receiving HBV treatment. Its predictive performance stands out, whether considered independently or in comparison to alternative HCC risk scoring systems. Furthermore, the introduction of targeted adjustments to the calculation of the PAGE-B score might have the potential to further improve its predictive accuracy. This review aims to evaluate the efficacy of the PAGE-B score as a dependable tool for accurate prediction of the development of HCC in CHB patients. The evidence discussed aims to provide valuable insights for guiding recommendations on HCC surveillance within this specific population.

HCC prediction models in chronic hepatitis B patients receiving entecavir or tenofovir: a systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

Our study aimed to compare the predictive performance of different hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) prediction models in chronic hepatitis B patients receiving entecavir or tenofovir, including discrimination, calibration, negative predictive value (NPV) in low-risk, and proportion of low-risk.

METHODS

We conducted a systematic literature research in PubMed, EMbase, the Cochrane Library, and Web of Science before January 13, 2022. The predictive performance was assessed by area under receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC), calibration index, negative predictive value, and the proportion in low-risk. Subgroup and meta-regression analyses of discrimination and calibration were conducted. Sensitivity analysis was conducted to validate the stability of the results.

RESULTS

We identified ten prediction models in 23 studies. The pooled 3-, 5-, and 10-year AUROC varied from 0.72 to 0.84, 0.74 to 0.83, and 0.76 to 0.86, respectively. REAL-B, AASL-HCC, and HCC-RESCUE achieved the best discrimination. HCC-RESCUE, PAGE-B, and mPAGE-B overestimated HCC development, whereas mREACH-B, AASL-HCC, REAL-B, CAMD, CAGE-B, SAGE-B, and aMAP underestimated it. All models were able to identify people with a low risk of HCC accurately. HCC-RESCUE and aMAP recognized over half of the population as low-risk. Subgroup analysis and sensitivity analysis showed similar results.

CONCLUSION

Considering the predictive performance of all four aspects, we suggest that HCC-RESCUE was the best model to utilize in clinical practice, especially in primary care and low-income areas. To confirm our findings, further validation studies with the above four components were required.

Switching from entecavir to tenofovir alafenamide for maintaining complete virological response in chronic hepatitis B

Background and Aim

Hepatocellular carcinoma development can be decreased by achieving and maintaining complete virological response (CVR) in chronic hepatitis B. However, it is unclear whether switching from entecavir (ETV) to tenofovir alafenamide (TAF) could achieve and maintain CVR in patients with low-level viremia (LLV; HBV DNA ≤ 3.3 log IU/mL) or occasional detectable HBV DNA during ETV treatment. Therefore, we aimed to examine whether the switching from ETV to TAF is effective in achieving CVR in patients with LLV or occasional detectable HBV DNA.

Methods

This study comprised 45 patients who switched from ETV to TAF. All patients received ETV and TAF for >2 years, and the HBV DNA levels were measured every 3 months. Maintaining undetectable HBV DNA during 2-year period is defined as CVR. The primary endpoint is the CVR rate during ETV and TAF treatment.

Results

The CVR rate for each of the 2 years of ETV and TAF therapy was 33.3% (15/45) and 68.9% (31/45, P < 0.01), respectively, and the CVR rate increased by switching from ETV to TAF. In patients with occasional detectable HBV DNA during ETV treatment (22 patients), 15 achieved CVR and 7 maintained occasional detectable HBV DNA. In patients with LLV during ETV treatment (eight patients), three achieved CVR and five had occasional detectable HBV DNA.

Conclusion

Switching from ETV to TAF increases the CVR rate in patients with LLV or occasional detectable HBV DNA and could be an alternative treatment option.

Effect of fatty liver and fibrosis on hepatocellular carcinoma development in patients with chronic hepatitis B who received nucleic acid analog therapy

The number of patients with fatty liver has been increasing worldwide; however, the significance of fatty liver in patients with chronic hepatitis B who are receiving nucleic acid analog (NA) therapy remains unclear. Thus, we aimed to determine whether fatty liver affects the development of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) in patients receiving NA therapy. This study included 445 patients who received NA therapy, and the development of HCC was investigated. The primary outcome was the association between fatty liver and HCC development. During a mean follow-up period of 7.4 years, 46 patients (10.3%) developed HCC. No significant difference in the cumulative incidence of HCC was observed between patients with fatty liver and those without (p = 0.17). Multivariable analysis for age, gender, platelet count, alanine aminotransferase level at 1 year following NA therapy, and fatty liver revealed that the presence of fatty liver was not a significant factor for HCC development (hazard ratio [HR]: 0.96, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.5-1.9). In another multivariable analysis for advanced fibrosis, gender, and fatty liver, advanced fibrosis was found to be a significant factor for HCC development (HR: 9.50, 95% CI: 5.1-18) but not fatty liver (HR: 0.90, 95% CI: 0.5-1.7). In conclusion, in patients with chronic hepatitis B who received NA therapy, advanced fibrosis was found to be an important risk factor for HCC development but not fatty liver, suggesting the importance of providing treatment before the progression of liver fibrosis regardless of the presence of fatty liver.

A new model predicts hepatocellular carcinoma in patients with HBV-related decompensated liver cirrhosis and long-term antiviral therapy: a prospective study

Background

We aimed to evaluate the prediction values of non-invasive models for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) development in patients with HBV-related liver cirrhosis (LC) and long-term NA treatment.

Methods

Patients with compensated or decompensated cirrhosis (DC), who achieved long-term virological response, were enrolled. DC and its stages were defined by the complications including ascites, encephalopathy, variceal bleeding, or renal failure. Prediction accuracy of several risk scores, including ALBI, CAMD, PAGE-B, mPAGE-B and aMAP, was compared.

Results

The median follow-up duration was 37 (28-66) months. Among the 229 patients, 9 (9.57%) patients in the compensated LC group and 39 (28.89%) patients in the DC group developed HCC. The incidence of HCC was higher in the DC group ( X ² = 12.478, P < 0.01). The AUROC of ALBI, aMAP, CAMD, PAGE-B and mPAGE-B scores were 0.512, 0.667, 0.638, 0.663, 0.679, respectively. There was no significant difference in AUROC between CAMD, aMAP, PAGE-B and mPAGE-B (all P > 0.05). Univariable analysis showed that age, DC status and platelet were associated with HCC development, and multivariable analysis showed that age and DC status (both P < 0.01) were independent risk factors for HCC development, then Model (Age_DC) was developed and its AUROC was 0.718. Another model, Model (Age_DC_PLT_TBil) consisting of age, DC stage, PLT, TBil was also developed, and its AUROC was larger than that of Model (Age_DC) (0.760 vs. 0.718). Moreover, AUROC of Model (Age_DC_PLT_TBil) was larger than the other five models (all P < 0.05). With an optimal cut-off value of 0.236, Model (Age_DC_PLT_TBil) achieved 70.83% sensitivity, 76.24% specificity.

Conclusion

There is a lack of non-invasive risk scores for HCC development in HBV-related DC, and a new model consisting of age, DC stage, PLT, TBil may be an alternative.

Alanine aminotransferase levels as therapeutic targets after nucleotide/nucleoside analog therapy in patient with chronic hepatitis B

AIM

Alanine aminotransferase (ALT) is a criterion for the introduction of nucleotide/nucleoside analog (NA), and ALT levels are decreased by NA treatment. However, the association between post-treatment ALT levels and hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) risk remains unclear. To fill this gap, we aimed to establish a target value of ALT level during NA treatment.

METHODS

In total, 413 patients with chronic hepatitis B who received entecavir, tenofovir alafenamide, or tenofovir disoproxil fumarate were enrolled. The subsequent development of HCC was examined and a target value of ALT level during NA treatment as a risk marker for HCC was evaluated.

RESULTS

The median follow-up duration was 5.1 years, during which time 27 patients (8.6%) developed HCC. ALT level at the start of treatment was not associated with HCC development (p = 0.08). When stratified by ALT at 1 year after NA initiation, the cumulative 3- and 5-year rates of HCC for patients with ALT ≥21 IU/L were 11.5% and 18.1%, and those with ALT <21 IU/L was 2.3% and 6.5%, respectively. Patients with ALT <21 IU/L had a significantly lower risk of HCC development compared with patients with ALT ≥21 IU/L (p = 0.002). In multivariable analysis adjusting age, sex, and platelet counts, ALT ≥21 IU/L was an independent risk factor of HCC development with hazard ratio of 4.5 (95% confidence interval: 1.01-20.4).

CONCLUSIONS

ALT <21 IU/L at 1 year after NA initiation has a lower risk of HCC and could be used as a target value for NA treatment.

Risk factors for hepatocellular carcinoma at baseline and 1 year after initiation of nucleos(t)ide analog therapy for chronic hepatitis B

Nucleos(t)ide analogs (NAs) cannot completely suppress the risk of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) in patients with chronic hepatitis B (CHB). This study aimed to identify the risk factors for HCC development in naïve CHB patients treated with current NA. Patients receiving NA (n = 905) were recruited retrospectively from the 17 hospitals of the Japanese Red Cross Liver Study Group. All treatment-naïve patients had been receiving current NA continuously for more than 1 year until the end of the follow-up. We analyzed the accuracy of predictive risk score using the area under receiver operating characteristic curve. The albumin-bilirubin (ALBI) score was significantly improved by NA therapy (-0.171 ± 0.396; p < 0.001 at Week 48). A total of 72 (8.0%) patients developed HCC over a median follow-up of 6.2 (1.03-15.7) years. An independent predictive factor of HCC development was older age, cirrhosis, lower platelet counts at baseline and ALBI score, and alpha-fetoprotein (AFP) at 1 year after NA therapy according to multivariate analysis. The accuracy was assessed using the PAGE-B, mPAGE-B, aMAP, APA-B, and REAL-B scores that included these factors. Discrimination was generally acceptable for these models. aMAP and REAL-B demonstrated high discrimination with 0.866/0.862 and 0.833/0.859 for 3- and 5-year prediction from the status of 1 year after NA therapy, respectively. Baseline age and platelet count, as well as ALBI and AFP one year after NA, were useful for stratifying carcinogenesis risk. The aMAP and REAL-B scores were validated with high accuracy in Japanese CHB patients.

Validation of Hepatocellular Carcinoma Risk Prediction Models in Patients with Hepatitis B-Related Cirrhosis

Purpose

Several risk models have been developed to predict the hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) risk in patients with chronic hepatitis B (CHB); however, it remains unclear whether these models are useful for risk assessment in patients with hepatitis B virus (HBV)-related cirrhosis undergoing antiviral therapy.

Patients and Methods

A total of 252 treatment-naive cirrhosis patients with no history of HCC who underwent treatment with nucleos(t)ide analogues between January 2010 and July 2014 were enrolled. Cox proportional hazards model was used to analyze the risk factors for HCC. "TimeROC" and "survival ROC" package, written for R, were used to compare the time-dependent area under the receiver operating characteristic (AUROC) curves for the predictability of the HCC risk scores.

Results

During the mean follow-up period of 56.96 months, 48 (19.0%) patients developed HCC. Cox multivariate stepwise regression analysis revealed that international normalized ratio (hazard ratio [HR] 2.771, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.462-5.254; P=0.002), alpha-fetoprotein (HR 1.001, 95% CI 1.000-1.003; P=0.035), diabetes mellitus (HR 3.061, 95% CI 1.542-6.077; P=0.001), and alcohol intake (HR 2.250, 95% CI 1.042-4.856; P=0.039) were independent indicators of the HCC risk. AUROC at 3 (0.739) and 5 years (0.695) for the REAL-B score were consistently higher than those of the other risk models except RWS-HCC. The time-dependent AUROC value at 1 year for the REAL-B score was similar to those of the other risk models. According to REAL-B score stratification (0-3, low; 4-7, moderate; and 8-13, high), the HCC risk rates at 1, 3, and 5 years were 2.4%, 5.6%, and 9.0% in the intermediate-risk group, and 7.2%, 21.1%, and 26.3% in the high-risk group, respectively (all P<0.001 between each pair).

Conclusion

REAL-B score showed a persistently high prognostic capability in predicting the HCC risk in HBV-related cirrhosis patients undergoing antiviral therapy.

Evaluation of the Hepatocellular Carcinoma Predictive Scores PAGE-B and mPAGE-B among Brazilian Patients with Chronic Hepatitis B Virus Infection

Hepatitis B virus (HBV) is intrinsically oncogenic and related to hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). Predictive scores of HCC have been developed but have been poorly studied in admixed populations. Therefore, we aimed to evaluate the performance of PAGE-B and mPAGE-B scores for HCC prediction in HBV Brazilian patients and factors related to HCC occurrence. This is a retrospective study that evaluated patients followed at a tertiary university center. A total of 224 patients were included, with a median follow-up period of 9 years. The mean age at HBV diagnosis was 38.71 ± 14.19 years, predominantly males (66.1%). The cumulative incidence of HCC at 3, 5, and 7 years was 0.993%, 2.70%, and 5.25%, respectively, being related in the univariate logistic regression analysis to male sex (p = 0.0461), older age (p = 0.0001), cirrhosis at HBV diagnosis (p < 0.0001), and higher values of PAGE-B and mPAGE-B scores (p = 0.0002 and p < 0.0001, respectively). Older age, male sex, and cirrhosis at HBV diagnosis were independently associated with HCC occurrence. The AUROCs of PAGE-B and mPAGE-B were 0.7906 and 0.7904, respectively, with no differences between them (p = 0.9767). In conclusion, both PAGE-B and mPAGE-B showed a correct prediction of HCC above 70% in this cohort.

Hepatocellular Carcinoma Prediction Models in Chronic Hepatitis B: A Systematic Review of 14 Models and External Validation

BACKGROUND & AIMS

The aim of our study was to characterize the performance of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) prediction models in chronic hepatitis B (CHB) patients through meta-analysis followed by external validation.

METHODS

We performed a systematic review and meta-analysis of current literature, followed by external validation in independent multi-center cohort with 986 patients with CHB undergoing entecavir treatment (median follow-up: 4.7 years). Model performance to predict HCC within 3, 5, 7, and 10 years was assessed using area under receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) and calibration index. Subgroup analysis were conducted by treatment status, cirrhotic, race and baseline alanine aminotransferase.

RESULTS

We identified 14 models with 123,885 patients (5,452 HCC cases), with REACH-B, CU-HCC, GAG-HCC, PAGE-B and mPAGE-B models being broadly externally validated. Discrimination was generally acceptable for all models, with pooled AUC ranging from 0.70 (95% CI, 0.63-0.76 for REACH-B) to 0.83 (95% CI, 0.78-0.87 for REAL-B) for 3-year, 0.68 (95% CI, 0.64-0.73 for REACH-B) to 0.81 (95% CI, 0.77-0.85 for REAL-B) for 5-year and 0.70 (95% CI, 0.58-0.80 for PAGE-B) to 0.81 (95% CI, 0.78-0.84 for REAL-B and 0.77-0.86 for AASL-HCC) for 10-year prediction. However, calibration performance was poorly reported in most studies. In external validation cohort, REAL-B showed highest discrimination with 0.76 (95% CI, 0.69-0.83) and 0.75 (95% CI, 0.70-0.81) for 3 and 5-year prediction. The REAL-B model was also well calibrated in the external validation cohort (3-year Brier score 0.066). Results were consistent in subgroup analyses.

CONCLUSIONS

In a systematic review of available HCC models, the REAL-B model exhibited best discrimination and calibration.

External validation of hepatocellular carcinoma risk scores in patients with chronic hepatitis B virus infection in China

Several scores have been proposed in untreated or treated patients with chronic hepatitis B (CHB) to predict risks of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) occurrence. However, it is still unclear which score suits all chronic hepatitis B virus (HBV)-infected patients well, regardless of whether they are chronic carriers or CHB patients. In this study, we validated and compared the predictability of CU-HCC, REACH-B, PAGE-B and mPAGE-B in patients with chronic HBV infection in China. 1,786 patients with no history of HCC were recruited, with 978 carriers and 808 CHB patients on antiviral therapy. Patients were classified into low- and high-risk groups according to the predefined cut-off values of 5, 8, 10 and 9 for CU-HCC, REACH-B, PAGE-B and mPAGE-B. The median follow-up period was 43.7months, during which 18 (1.0%) patients developed HCC. The areas under the receiver operating characteristic curves (AUROCs) of CU-HCC, REACH-B, PAGE-B and mPAGE-B scores to predict HCC risk at 36 months were 0.815, 0.703, 0.794 and 0.825, respectively (all p < 0.05). No significant difference among AUROCs of these scores was observed except those of mPAGE-B and REACH-B at 36 months. The cumulative incidence of HCC in low- and high- risk groups based on CU-HCC, REACH-B, PAGE-B and mPAGE-B were 0.4% vs. 3.2%, 0.7% vs. 1.5%, 0.2% vs. 1.3%, and 0.2% vs. 1.7% at 36 months, respectively (all p < 0.05, except PAGE-B, log-rant test). Both CU-HCC and mPAGE-B scores accurately predict HCC risk in Chinese chronic HBV-infected patients. Patients with CU-HCC <5 or mPAGE-B <9 could be exempt from HCC surveillance within 36 months.

Application of Risk Scores for Hepatocellular Carcinoma in Patients with Chronic Hepatitis B: Current Status and Future Perspective

Accurate risk prediction for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) among patients with chronic hepatitis B (CHB) may guide treatment strategies including initiation of antiviral therapy and also inform implementation of HCC surveillance. There have been 26 risk scores developed to predict HCC in CHB patients with (n = 14) or without (n = 12) receiving antiviral treatment; all of them invariably include age in the scoring formula. Virological biomarkers of replicative activities (i.e., hepatitis B virus DNA level or hepatitis B envelope antigen status) are frequently included in the scores derived from patients with untreated CHB, whereas measurements that gauge severity of liver fibrosis and/or reserve of hepatic function (i.e., cirrhosis diagnosis, liver stiffness measurement, platelet count, or albumin) are essential components in the scores developed from treated patients. External validation is a prerequisite for clinical application but not yet performed for all scores. For the future, higher predictive accuracy may be achieved with machine learning based on more comprehensive data.

Screening for Hepatocellular Carcinoma in Patients with Hepatitis B

Chronic hepatitis B (CHB) infection is a significant risk factor for developing hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). As HCC is associated with significant morbidity and mortality, screening patients with CHB at a high risk for HCC is recommended in an attempt to improve these outcomes. However, the screening recommendations on who to screen and how often are not uniform. Identifying patients at the highest risk of HCC would allow for the best use of health resources. In this review, we evaluate the literature on screening patients with CHB for HCC, strategies for optimizing adherence to screening, and potential risk stratification tools to identify patients with CHB at a high risk of developing HCC.

Prediction models for development of hepatocellular carcinoma in chronic hepatitis B patients

Chronic hepatitis B (CHB)-related hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is a major health problem in Asian-Pacific regions. Antiviral therapy reduces, but does not completely prevent, HCC development. Thus, there is a need for accurate risk prediction to assist prognostication and decisions on the need for antiviral therapy and HCC surveillance. A few risk scores have been developed to predict the occurrence of HCC in CHB patients. Initially, the scores were derived from untreated CHB patients. With the development and extensive clinical application of nucleos(t)ide analog(s) (NA), the number of risk scores based on treated CHB patients has increased gradually. The components included in risk scores may be categorized into host factors and hepatitis B virus factors. Hepatitis activities, hepatitis B virus factors, and even liver fibrosis or cirrhosis are relatively controlled by antiviral therapy. Therefore, variables that are more dynamic during antiviral therapy have since been included in risk scores. However, host factors are more difficult to modify. Most existing scores derived from Asian populations have been confirmed to be accurate in predicting HCC development in CHB patients from Asia, while these scores have not offered excellent predictability in Caucasian patients. These findings support that more relevant variables should be considered to provide individualized predictions that are easily applied to CHB patients of different ethnicities. CHB patients should receive different intensities of HCC surveillance according to their risk category.

Dynamic evaluation of hepatocellular carcinoma prediction models in patients with chronic hepatitis B receiving nucleotide/nucleoside analogue treatment

Carcinogenesis risk scores for chronic hepatitis B have been proposed, but it remains unclear whether these scores during nucleoside/nucleotide analogue (NA) therapy are useful for risk assessment. In this study, we examined changes of these scores and the predictability during NA treatment. 432 patients with no history of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) treated with NA were enrolled. PAGE-B, modified PAGE-B (mPAGE-B), and REACH-B scores were calculated at NA administration, 1 and 2 years after administration. The median follow-up duration was 5.1 years, during which 37 patients (8.6%) developed HCC. Cumulative incidence HCC development in patients with high risk of PAGE at NA administration, and 1 and 2 years after NA administration was significantly higher than those with intermediate and low-risk groups (p < .05 for all time points), whereas HCC incidence in patients with high risk of mPAGE-B and REACH-B at 2 years after NA administration were equivalent to those with intermediate and low-risk groups (p = .2 for mPAGE-B, and p = .1 for REACH-B). The area under the receiver operating characteristic (AUROC) for HCC development of PAGE-B at NA administration, and 1 and 2 years after administration were 0.773, 0.803 and 0.737, respectively. The AUROCs of PAGE-B at each point were continuously higher than those of REACH-B (0.646, 0.725, and 0.653, respectively) and mPAGE-B (0.754, 0.734, and 0.678, respectively).PAGE-B score has a high diagnostic accuracy for HCC development at any time point during NA treatment, indicating its potential use as a real-time monitor of HCC development.

Validation of the HCC-RESCUE score to predict hepatocellular carcinoma risk in Caucasian chronic hepatitis B patients under entecavir or tenofovir therapy

The HCC-RESCUE score was developed to predict hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) risk in Korean chronic hepatitis B (CHB) patients under entecavir therapy. We aimed to validate the HCC-RESCUE score to predict HCC risk in Caucasian CHB patients under entecavir or tenofovir therapy and to compare the predictive performance of the HCC-RESCUE score with those of the CAMD, PAGE-B and modified PAGE-B (mPAGE-B) scores. The study included 647 nucleos(t)ide analogue-naive noncirrhotic and compensated/decompensated cirrhotic patients who had received entecavir or tenofovir for ≥6 months and did not develop HCC during the first 6 months of therapy. Patients with HCC-RESCUE scores ≤64, 65-84 and ≥85 points were classified into low-, intermediate- and high-risk groups, respectively. The AUROCs of the HCC-RESCUE, CAMD, PAGE-B and mPAGE-B scores to predict HCC risk at 5 years were 0.875, 0.870, 0.866 and 0.880, and those at 10 years were 0.862, 0.845, 0.841 and 0.862, respectively (both p > .05). Cumulative HCC incidences at 5 years were 0.0%, 10.5% and 15.8%, and those at 10 years were 1.4%, 15.5% and 24.9%, respectively, in the low-, intermediate- and high-risk groups based on the HCC-RESCUE score (both log rank p < .001). In the entecavir versus tenofovir cohorts, the AUROCs of the HCC-RESCUE score to predict HCC risk at 5 and 10 years were 0.831 versus 0.898 and 0.803 versus 0.910, respectively (both p > .05). The HCC-RESCUE score accurately predicted HCC risk in Caucasian CHB patients under entecavir or tenofovir therapy. A substantial proportion of patients can be dropped from HCC surveillance by using the HCC-RESCUE score.

Assessing efficacy of hepatocellular carcinoma prediction scores to prioritise hepatitis B surveillance in the COVID-19 era

OBJECTIVE

An estimated 250 million people worldwide are chronically infected with hepatitis B virus (HBV), the leading cause of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) globally. The novel Sars-cov2 virus continues to spread at an alarming rate, and with guidance at the onset of the pandemic recommending the deferral of HCC surveillance, the implications on liver cancer care are now emerging and highlight the urgent need for reorganisation of services.

METHODS

We analysed how five HCC risk prediction scores could aid stratification of patients with chronic HBV. We calculated scores using parameters measured from 3 years prior (where available, n = 17) and at the time of HCC diagnosis in all adult patients with chronic HBV diagnosed with HCC (n = 46), and controls (n = 100). We compared the number of patients requiring cancer surveillance according to each score and regional surveillance guidance.

RESULTS

The aMAP score had the highest discriminatory performance in HCC risk prediction at 3 years (area under receiver-operating characteristic curve (auROC) of 0.824), followed by the mREACH B score (auROC of 0.719), and mPAGE B score (auROC of 0.742). However, only the mREACH B score had a negative predictive value (NPV) >99%. Applying the mREACH B score to our HBV cohort identified 11 patients requiring HCC surveillance, compared with 62 under current guidelines.

CONCLUSION

The use of HCC risk prediction scores could streamline the surveillance of patients with chronic HBV at a time of extremely limited resources. Overall, the mREACH B score had both a strong discriminatory performance and a high NPV, thus safely identifying low risk patients not requiring surveillance.