Predictors of mortality in children admitted with SARS-CoV-2 infection to a tertiary care hospital in North India

Prognostic value of C-reactive protein levels in pulmonary infections: A systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

C-reactive rotein (CRP) has been extensively studied as a biomarker that can predict mortality in patients with acute lung disease and our study aimed to elucidate the prognostic value of CRP levels for mortality in patients with various airway diseases, accounting for these differences and potential confounding factors accounts.

METHODS

An extensive literature search was conducted in several databases including PubMed, Embase, Web of Science, Scopus, and ProQuest to ensure the inclusion of up-to-date evidence from studies published between January 2019 and December 2024. Both fixed-effects and random-effects models were used to calculate pooled mean hazard ratios (HR) and odds ratios (OR) for mortality.

RESULTS

For mortality, the fixed effects model revealed a HR of 1.0065 (95% CI: 1.0054-1.0075, P < .0001), indicating a slightly increased risk of death associated with higher CRP levels. However, the random effects model, considering study heterogeneity, suggested an HR of 1.0488 (95% CI: 0.9978-1.1024, P = .0608), with significant heterogeneity (Q = 135.31, P < .0001). The OR analysis under the random effects model showed a more substantial increase in mortality risk with an OR of 1.2033 (95% CI: 1.0635-1.3614, P = .0033). Regarding ICU admissions and ventilation needs, substantial heterogeneity was also observed. The analysis did not find a statistically significant association between elevated CRP levels and ICU admission (OR = 1.1108, 95% CI: 0.9604-1.2847, P = .1568) or the necessity for ventilation (OR = 1.8981, 95% CI: 0.9651-3.7331, P = .0633), although both indicated trends towards increased risk.

CONCLUSION

CRP levels show a potential yet inconsistent association with mortality risk in patients with pulmonary infections. While elevated CRP levels suggest an increased risk of mortality, the results should be interpreted cautiously due to potential overestimation of the effect and the presence of publication bias.

The severity of pediatric COVID-19 during hospitalization is not associated with mortality within six months of discharge

BACKGROUND

COVID-19 has become a global pandemic. However, studies examining the outcomes for pediatric patients after hospital discharge, post-COVID-19, and the predictive factors influencing their high mortality rates, are still limited, especially in Indonesia. Therefore, this study aimed to determine the predictor that predict mortality six months after hospitalization for COVID-19.

METHODS

A retrospective cohort study was performed. The participants were children who were admitted to Dr. Sardjito General Hospital from February-April 2022. The inclusion criteria were pediatric patients who were hospitalized in the pediatric ward and discharged after recovering or completing isolation. COVID-19 hospitalization deaths and incomplete medical records were omitted from the study. Bivariate analysis was performed with chi-square log rank test. Kaplan-Meier method was used for calculating the cumulative survival between comparison groups of the predictor variables. Multivariate analysis was performed with a Cox regression. The relationships between the variables are presented as the Hazard ratios (HRs), confidence intervals of 95% (95%CI), and statistical significance levels, with p < 0.05.

RESULTS

Among the 114 patients studied, the mortality rate during the six months after COVID-19 was 29.8%. The multivariate analysis revealed that mortality was correlated with comorbidities (p < 0.021; HR 11.415; CI 95% 1.449-89.912) and obesity (p = 0.032; HR 4.617; CI 95% 1.139-18.721).

CONCLUSION

The presence of comorbidities and obesity are significant predictors of mortality in pediatric patients with COVID-19 within six months following hospital discharge.

CLINICAL TRIAL NUMBER

Not applicable.

Epidemic profile of COVID-19 child deaths in Sri Lanka: a retrospective nationwide analysis

INTRODUCTION

Understanding the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on child survival is crucial. Analysing COVID-19-related child deaths, even years after the pandemic, is critical for informing future pandemic preparedness and response efforts.

METHODS

We conducted an analysis of all "SARS-CoV-2/COVID-19 positive deaths" among children and adolescents (aged < 18 years) recorded through a purposefully designed Child Death Surveillance and Response System (CDSRS) from October 2020 to September 2022. It included all deaths with a positive SARS-CoV-2. The analysis involved a thorough review of documents (bedhead tickets, field/institutional investigation and postmortem examination reports, and compiled case scenarios). Multivariable backward logistic regression was conducted to identify risk factors associated with deaths attributed to COVID-19 infection. Additionally, a comparison of socio-demographic characteristics was conducted between deaths due to all causes and those attributed to COVID-19 infection.

RESULTS

A total of 111 deaths with a positive SARS-CoV-2 test were analyzed. Among these, 81 deaths (73%) were categorized as directly attributed to COVID-19 infection. Fourteen children (17.2%) had Multisystem Inflammatory Syndrome. Cardiovascular disease was the most common comorbidity (28.4%). The odds of deaths attributed to COVID-19 infection were eleven times higher with chronic diseases compared to incidental SARS-CoV-2 positive test (OR:11.22, 95% CI:1.735, 72.496). Tamil ethnicity appeared to be protective when compared to the Sinhalese (OR:0.07, 95% CI: 0.008, 0.598). The model explained 44.8% of the variance. When compared to national all-cause mortality data, females (p = 0.03), post-neonatal infants (p < 0.001), and > 5-18 years (p = 0.005) were identified as being at higher risk of death due to COVID-19 infection.

CONCLUSION

The proportion of COVID-19-positive deaths during the study period was higher than that reported in high-income countries, with most deaths directly attributed to SARS-CoV-2. Higher mortality rates were observed among post-neonatal infants, children over five years, females, those with Sinhalese ethnicity, and pre-existing chronic medical conditions, particularly cardiovascular disease.

Incidence of acute kidney injury-associated mortality in hospitalized children: a systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

Acute kidney injury (AKI) is a significant health concern in hospitalized children and is associated with increased mortality. However, the true burden of AKI-associated mortality in pediatric populations remains unclear.

OBJECTIVE

To determine the pooled incidence of mortality independently associated with AKI in hospitalized children globally.

DATA SOURCES

Medline and Embase were searched for studies published by March 2024.

STUDY ELIGIBILITY CRITERIA

The inclusion criteria encompassed observational studies involving hospitalized pediatric patients (< 18 years old) with AKI. Only studies that identified AKI as an independent risk factor for increased mortality in multivariate analysis were considered.

STUDY APPRAISAL AND SYNTHESIS METHODS

Studies with at least 100 AKI patients were included in the meta-analysis. Two authors extracted data on the study and patients' characteristics and mortality across AKI stages and assessed the risk of bias. We used a random-effects meta-analysis to generate pooled estimates of mortality.

RESULTS

Analysis of 60 studies including 133,876 children with AKI revealed a pooled in-hospital mortality rate of 18.27% (95% CI: 14.89, 21.65). Mortality increased with AKI severity; 8.19% in stage 1, 13.44% in stage 2, and 27.78% in stage 3. Subgroup analyses showed no significant differences across geographical regions, income levels, or AKI definition criteria. The pooled post-discharge mortality rate was 6.84% (95% CI: 5.86, 7.82) in a 1-9-year follow-up period.

CONCLUSIONS

This meta-analysis demonstrates a substantial global burden of AKI-associated mortality in hospitalized children, with higher mortality rates in more severe AKI stages. These findings highlight the critical need for early detection and intervention strategies in pediatric AKI management.

CLINICAL TRIAL NUMBER

Not applicable.

Factors Associated with Adverse Outcomes among SARS-CoV-2 Positive Children in a Tertiary Government COVID-19 Referral Hospital in the Philippines

Background and Objective

Pediatric COVID-19 epidemiology and factors associated with adverse outcomes - mortality, need for invasive mechanical ventilation, and ICU admission, are largely unstudied. We described the clinico-demographic characteristics of Filipino pediatric COVID-19 patients and determined the factors associated with adverse outcomes.

Methods

This is a retrospective cohort study of 180 hospitalized SARS-CoV-2-confirmed cases 0-18 years old from April 2020 to August 2021 in a tertiary COVID-19 referral hospital in Manila, National Capital Region. Crude associations were determined using chi-squared or Fisher's exact tests; and medians were compared using the Mann-Whitney test. Factors predictive of mortality were determined using Cox proportional hazards regression analysis. The survivor functions were depicted in graphs.

Results

About 41.67% had mild disease, 58.33% were males, 39.4% aged 0-4 years, and 69.44% had at least one comorbidity. About 9.44% died (adjusted 9.2 persons per 1000 patient-days, 95% CI 5.5%-15.2%), 17.78% needed invasive mechanical ventilation, and 20% needed ICU admission. Independently, severe-critical COVID-19 (HRc 11.51, 95% CI 3.23, 41.06), retractions (HRc 10.30, 95% CI 3.27, 32.47), alar flaring (HRc 4.39, 95% CI 1.53, 12.58), cyanosis (HRc 4.39, 95% CI 1.72, 14.11), difficulty of breathing (HRc 7.99, 95% CI 2.25, 28.71), poor suck/appetite (HRc 4.46, 95% CI 1.59, 12.40), ferritin (HRc 1.01, 95% CI 1.00, 1.01), IL-6 (HRc 1.01, 95% CI 1.00, 1.01), aPTT (HRc 1.05, 95% CI 1.01, 1.10), IVIg (HRc 4.00, 95% CI 1.07, 14.92) and corticosteroid (HRc 6.01, 95% CI 2.04, 17.67) were significant hazards for mortality. In adjusted Cox analysis, only retractions (HRa 34.96, 95% CI 3.36, 363.79), seizure (HRa 9.98, 95% CI 1.76, 56.55), and corticosteroids (HRa 8.21, 95% CI 1.12, 60.38) were significantly associated with mortality while alar flaring appeared to be protective (HRa 0.10, 95% CI 0.01, 0.95). Several clinical characteristics were consistently associated with adverse outcomes.

Conclusions

Majority of hospitalized pediatric COVID-19 patients were very young, males, had mild disease, and had at least one comorbidity. Mortality, invasive mechanical ventilation, and ICU admission were relatively low. Except for alar flaring which appeared to be protective, retractions, seizure, and use of corticosteroids were associated with adverse outcomes.

Epidemiology and clinical features of SARS-CoV-2 infection in children and adolescents in the pre-Omicron era: A global systematic review and meta-analysis

Methods

We searched MEDLINE, Embase, Global Health, CINAHL, China National Knowledge Infrastructure, Wanfang, CQvip, and the World Health Organization (WHO) COVID-19 global literature databases for primary studies recruiting children aged ≤18 years with a diagnosis of SARS-CoV-2 infection confirmed either by molecular or antigen tests. We used the Joanna Briggs Institute critical appraisal tools to appraise the study quality and conducted meta-analyses using the random effects model for all outcomes except for race/ethnicity as risk factors of SARS-CoV-2 infection.

Results

We included 237 studies, each reporting at least one of the study outcomes. Based on data from 117 studies, the pooled SARS-CoV-2 positivity rate was 9.30% (95% confidence interval (CI) = 7.15-11.73). Having a comorbidity was identified as a risk factor for SARS-CoV-2 infection (risk ratio (RR) = 1.33; 95% CI = 1.04-1.71) based on data from 49 studies. Most cases in this review presented with mild disease (n = 50; 52.47% (95% CI = 44.03-60.84)). However, 20.70% of paediatric SARS-CoV-2 infections were hospitalised (67 studies), 7.19% required oxygen support (57 studies), 4.26% required intensive care (93 studies), and 2.92% required assisted ventilation (63 studies). The case fatality ratio (n = 119) was 0.87% (95% CI = 0.54-1.28), which included in-hospital and out-of-hospital deaths.

Conclusions

Our data showed that children were at risk for SARS-CoV-2 infections and severe outcomes in the pre-Omicron era. These findings underscore the need for effective vaccination strategies for the paediatric population to protect against the acute and long-term sequelae of COVID-19.

Registration

PROSPERO: CRD42022327680.

One-year follow-up of children hospitalized with COVID-19: a prospective cohort study

OBJECTIVE

Currently, little is known about the long-term outcomes of COVID-19 in the pediatric population. The aim of this study was to investigate the long-term clinical outcomes of pediatric patients hospitalized with COVID-19.

METHODS

This was a prospective cohort study involving unvaccinated children and adolescents admitted to a tertiary hospital in southern Brazil with a COVID-19 diagnosis. Data were collected from electronic medical records for one year after the diagnosis.

RESULTS

A total of 66 children were included: the median age was 2.9 years; 63.6% were male; and 48.5% were under 2 years of age. Over 70% had at least one comorbidity prior to the COVID-19 diagnosis. During the one-year follow-up period, 59.1% of the children revisited the emergency department, 50% required readmission, and 15.2% died. Younger children with longer hospital stays were found to be at greater risk of readmission. Having cancer and impaired functionality were found to increase the risk of death within one year.

CONCLUSIONS

Our findings indicate that most children hospitalized with COVID-19 have comorbidities. Younger age at admission and a longer hospital stay seem to be risk factors for readmission. In addition, the presence of cancer and impaired functionality are apparently associated with the poor outcome of death within the first year after the diagnosis of COVID-19.

Evaluation of a Hospitalized Pediatric COVID-19 Cohort from Indian National Clinical Registry of COVID-19

OBJECTIVE

To evaluate the factors associated with mortality of a multicentric cohort of hospitalized COVID-19 patients, 0-18 y old, from 42 centers across India.

METHODS

The National Clinical Registry for COVID-19 (NCRC) is an on-going prospective data collection platform enrolling COVID-19 patients diagnosed by real-time PCR or rapid antigen test. The data are collected in prestructured e-capture forms. The sociodemographic, clinical, laboratory, and hospital outcome data from 1st September 2020 to 20th February 2022 were analyzed.

RESULTS

Of the 1244 enrolled hospitalized COVID-19 patients aged 0-18 y, 98 and 124 were infants and neonates, respectively. Only 68.6% children were symptomatic at admission, with fever being the most common symptom. Diarrhea, rash, and neurological symptoms were also noted. At least 1 comorbidity was present in 260 (21%) children. The in-hospital mortality rate was 6.2% (n = 67), the highest in infants (12.5%). Altered sensorium (aOR: 6.8, CI: 1.9, 24.6), WHO ordinal scale ≥ 4 at admission (aOR: 19.6, CI: 8.0, 47.8), and malignancy (aOR: 8.9, 95% CI: 2.4, 32.3) were associated with higher odds of death. Malnutrition did not affect the outcome. Mortality rates were similar across the three waves of the pandemic, though a significant shift towards the under-five group was observed in the third wave.

CONCLUSION

This multicentric cohort of admitted Indian children showed that the COVID-19 was milder in children than adults, and the pattern was consistent across all waves of the pandemic.

COVID-19 deaths in children and young people in England, March 2020 to December 2021: An active prospective national surveillance study

BACKGROUND

Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) deaths are rare in children and young people (CYP). The high rates of asymptomatic and mild infections complicate assessment of cause of death in CYP. We assessed the cause of death in all CYP with a positive Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) test since the start of the pandemic in England.

METHODS AND FINDINGS

CYP aged <20 years who died within 100 days of laboratory-confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection between 01 March 2020 and 31 December 2021 in England were followed up in detail, using national databases, surveillance questionnaires, post-mortem reports, and clinician interviews. There were 185 deaths during the 22-month follow-up and 81 (43.8%) were due to COVID-19. Compared to non-COVID-19 deaths in CYP with a positive SARS-CoV-2 test, death due to COVID-19 was independently associated with older age (aOR 1.06 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.01 to 1.11, p = 0.02) and underlying comorbidities (aOR 2.52 95% CI 1.27 to 5.01, p = 0.008), after adjusting for age, sex, ethnicity group, and underlying conditions, with a shorter interval between SARS-CoV-2 testing and death. Half the COVID-19 deaths (41/81, 50.6%) occurred within 7 days of confirmation of SARS-CoV-2 infection and 91% (74/81) within 30 days. Of the COVID-19 deaths, 61 (75.3%) had an underlying condition, especially severe neurodisability (n = 27) and immunocompromising conditions (n = 12). Over the 22-month surveillance period, SARS-CoV-2 was responsible for 1.2% (81/6,790) of all deaths in CYP aged <20 years, with an infection fatality rate of 0.70/100,000 SARS-CoV-2 infections in this age group estimated through real-time, nowcasting modelling, and a mortality rate of 0.61/100,000. Limitations include possible under-ascertainment of deaths in CYP who were not tested for SARS-CoV-2 and lack of direct access to clinical data for hospitalised CYP.

CONCLUSIONS

COVID-19 deaths remain extremely rare in CYP, with most fatalities occurring within 30 days of infection and in children with specific underlying conditions.

Development and validation of a clinical predictive model for severe and critical pediatric COVID-19 infection

INTRODUCTION

Children infected with COVID-19 are susceptible to severe manifestations. We aimed to develop and validate a predictive model for severe/ critical pediatric COVID-19 infection utilizing routinely available hospital level data to ascertain the likelihood of developing severe manifestations.

METHODS

The predictive model was based on an analysis of registry data from COVID-19 positive patients admitted to five tertiary pediatric hospitals across Asia [Singapore, Malaysia, Indonesia (two centers) and Pakistan]. Independent predictors of severe/critical COVID-19 infection were determined using multivariable logistic regression. A training cohort (n = 802, 70%) was used to develop the prediction model which was then validated in a test cohort (n = 345, 30%). The discriminative ability and performance of this model was assessed by calculating the Area Under the Curve (AUC) and 95% confidence interval (CI) from final Receiver Operating Characteristics Curve (ROC).

RESULTS

A total of 1147 patients were included in this analysis. In the multivariable model, infant age group, presence of comorbidities, fever, vomiting, seizures and higher absolute neutrophil count were associated with an increased risk of developing severe/critical COVID-19 infection. The presence of coryza at presentation, higher hemoglobin and platelet count were associated with a decreased risk of severe/critical COVID-19 infection. The AUC (95%CI) generated for this model from the training and validation cohort were 0.96 (0.94, 0.98) and 0.92 (0.86, 0.97), respectively.

CONCLUSION

This predictive model using clinical history and commonly used laboratory values was valuable in estimating the risk of developing a severe/critical COVID-19 infection in hospitalized children. Further validation is needed to provide more insights into its utility in clinical practice.

Characterization of persons with reported SARS-CoV-2 infection in the Oklahoma City tri-county area: Evidence from the first 12 months of transmission

Background

To describe characteristics, hospitalization, and death for reported cases of SARS-CoV-2 infection in the Oklahoma City tri-county area.

Methods

We extracted notified cases of SARS-CoV-2 infection for our study area and used descriptive statistics and modeling to examine case characteristics and calculate the odds of hospitalization and death in relation to a range of explanatory variables.

Results

Between March 12th, 2020 and February 28th, 2021, 124,925 cases of SARS-CoV-2 infection were reported from the study region. Being male, White or Black/African American, aged 50 years or older, presenting with apnea, cough, and shortness of breath, and having diabetes was associated with increased odds of hospitalization. The odds of dying were significantly associated with being Black/African American, presenting with cough and fever, having kidney disease and diabetes and being aged 70 years or older.

Conclusions

The first cohort analysis of SARS-CoV-2 positive individuals in the Oklahoma City tri-county area confirms comorbidities and age as important predictors of COVID-19 hospitalization or death. As a novel aspect, we show that early symptoms of breathing difficulties in particular are associated with hospitalization and death. Initial case assessment and SARS-CoV-2 guidelines should continue to focus on age, comorbidities, and early symptoms.