FIB-4 and incident severe liver outcomes in patients with undiagnosed chronic liver disease: A Fine-Gray competing risk analysis

Using the FIB-4, automatically calculated, followed by the ELF test in second line to screen primary care patients for liver disease

The objective of our work was to evaluate the screening of hepatic fibrosis in primary care using the FIB-4 score, automatically calculated. When the FIB-4 was ≥ 1.3, it was defined as positive, and ELF Test was performed. FIB-4 positivity was confirmed when ELF Test was ≥ 9.8 indicating an advanced fibrosis. Among the 3427 patients included, 869 (25%) had a positive FIB-4 score, 784 (22.5%) at intermediate (FIB-4: 1.3-2.67), and 85 (2.5%) at high risk of fibrosis (FIB-4 > 2.67). 509 (59%) of the FIB-4 positive were confirmed by the ELF Test. The percentage of confirmation was significantly higher in patients over 65 years (83 vs. 57%), with FIB-4 > 2.67 (80 vs. 56%), BMI > 25 (47 vs. 37%), and diabetes (24 vs. 14%), p = 0.001). In patients without known liver disease (92%), the practitioner identified a cause of disease in 27% of cases: mainly NAFLD and alcohol. Liver fibrosis was suspected on FIB-4 in 25% of patients in primary care. The ELF Test, performed as a second-line, improves the screening of liver fibrosis, particularly for FIB-4 intermediate results. A positive FIB-4 test allows physicians to recognize a liver disease, providing an opportunity for timely intervention.Clinical trial registration: Comité de protection des personnes du sud-ouest et outre-mer SI18.00832.201865-MS04-IDRCB 2018-A01571-54.

Impact of liver fibrosis on COVID-19 in-hospital mortality in Southern Italy

BACKGROUND & AIMS

SARS-Cov-2 infection manifests as a wide spectrum of clinical presentation and even now, despite the global spread of the vaccine, contagiousness is still elevated. The aim of the study was the evaluation of the impact of liver fibrosis assessed by FIB-4 and liver impairment, assessed by cytolysis indices, on intrahospital mortality in COVID-19 subjects.

METHODS

This is a retrospective observational cohort study, which involved 23 COVID Hospital Units in Campania Region, Italy. Exposure variables were collected during hospital admission and at discharge. According to FIB-4 values, we subdivided the overall population in three groups (FIB-4<1.45; 1.453.25), respectively group 1,2,3.

RESULTS

At the end of the study, 938 individuals had complete discharged/dead data. At admission, 428 patients were in group 1 (45.6%), 387 in group 2 (41.3%) and 123 in group 3 (13.1%). Among them, 758 (81%) subjects were discharged, while the remaining 180 (19%) individuals died. Multivariable Cox's regression model showed a significant association between mortality risk and severity of FIB-4 stages (group 3 vs group 1, HR 2.12, 95%CI 1.38-3.28, p<0.001). Moreover, Kaplan-Meier analysis described a progressive and statistically significant difference (p<0.001 Log-rank test) in mortality according to FIB-4 groups. Among discharged subjects, 507 showed a FIB-4<1.45 (66.9%, group 1), 182 a value 1.453.25 (9.0%, group 3). Among dead subjects, 42 showed a FIB-4<1.45 (23.3%, group 1), 62 a value 1.453.25 (42.3%, group 3).

CONCLUSIONS

FIB-4 value is significantly associated with intrahospital mortality of COVID-19 patients. During hospitalization, particularly in patients with worse outcomes, COVID-19 seems to increase the risk of acute progression of liver damage.

NAIF: A novel artificial intelligence-based tool for accurate diagnosis of stage F3/F4 liver fibrosis in the general adult population, validated with three external datasets

OBJECTIVE

The purpose of this study was to determine the effectiveness of a new AI-based tool called NAIF (NAFLD-AI-Fibrosis) in identifying individuals from the general population with advanced liver fibrosis (stage F3/F4). We compared NAIF's performance to two existing risk score calculators, aspartate aminotransferase-to-platelet ratio index (APRI) and fibrosis-4 (Fib4).

METHODS

To set up the algorithm for diagnosing severe liver fibrosis (defined as Fibroscan® values E ≥ 9.7 KPa), we used 19 blood biochemistry parameters and two demographic parameters in a group of 5,962 individuals from the NHANES population (2017-2020 pre-pandemic, public database). We then assessed the algorithm's performance by comparing its accuracy, precision, sensitivity, specificity, and F1 score values to those of APRI and Fib4 scoring systems.

RESULTS

In a kept-out sub dataset of the NHANES population, NAIF achieved a predictive precision of 72 %, a sensitivity of 61 %, and a specificity of 77 % in correctly identifying adults (aged 18-79 years) with severe liver fibrosis. Additionally, NAIF performed well when tested with two external datasets of Italian patients with a Fibroscan® score E ≥ 9.7 kPa, and with an external dataset of patients with diagnosis of severe liver fibrosis through biopsy.

CONCLUSIONS

The results of our study suggest that NAIF, using routinely available parameters, outperforms in sensitivity existing scoring methods (Fib4 and APRI) in diagnosing severe liver fibrosis, even when tested with external validation datasets. NAIF uses routinely available parameters, making it a promising tool for identifying individuals with advanced liver fibrosis from the general population. Word count abstract: 236.

FIB-4 as a Time-varying Covariate and Its Association With Severe Liver Disease in Primary Care: A Time-dependent Cox Regression Analysis

BACKGROUND AND GOALS

The Fibrosis-4 Index (FIB-4) has demonstrated a strong association with severe liver disease (SLD) outcomes in primary care, but previous studies have only evaluated this relationship using 1 or 2 FIB-4 scores. In this study, we determined the association of FIB-4 as a time-varying covariate with SLD risk using time-dependent Cox regression models.

STUDY

This retrospective cohort study included primary care patients with at least 2 FIB-4 scores between 2012 and 2021. The outcome was the occurrence of an SLD event, a composite of cirrhosis, complications of cirrhosis, hepatocellular carcinoma, and liver transplantation. The primary predictor was FIB-4 advanced fibrosis risk, categorized as low-(<1.3), indeterminate-(1.3≤FIB to 4<2.67), and high-risk (≥2.67). FIB-4 scores were calculated and the index, last, and maximum FIB-4s were identified. Time-dependent Cox regression models were used to estimate hazard ratios (HR) and their corresponding 95% CI with adjustment for potentially confounding covariates.

RESULTS

In the cohort, 20,828 patients had a median of 5 (IQR: 3 to 11) FIB-4 scores each and 3% (n=667) suffered an SLD outcome during follow-up. Maximum FIB-4 scores were indeterminate-risk for 34% (7149) and high-risk for 24% (4971) of the sample, and 32% (6692) of patients had an increase in fibrosis risk category compared with their index value. The adjusted Cox regression model demonstrated an association between indeterminate- (hazard ratio 3.21; 95% CI 2.33-4.42) and high-risk (hazard ratio 20.36; 95% CI 15.03-27.57) FIB-4 scores with SLD outcomes.

CONCLUSIONS

Multiple FIB-4 values per patient are accessible in primary care, FIB-4 fibrosis risk assessments change over time, and high-risk FIB-4 scores (≥2.67) are strongly associated with severe liver disease outcomes when accounting for FIB-4 as a time-varying variable.

Exploring Opportunities to Enhance the Screening and Surveillance of Hepatocellular Carcinoma in Non-Alcoholic Fatty Liver Disease (NAFLD) through Risk Stratification Algorithms Incorporating Ultrasound Elastography

Non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD), with its progressive form, non-alcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH), has emerged as a significant public health concern, affecting over 30% of the global population. Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), a complication associated with both cirrhotic and non-cirrhotic NAFLD, has shown a significant increase in incidence. A substantial proportion of NAFLD-related HCC occurs in non-cirrhotic livers, highlighting the need for improved risk stratification and surveillance strategies. This comprehensive review explores the potential role of liver ultrasound elastography as a risk assessment tool for HCC development in NAFLD and highlights the importance of effective screening tools for early, cost-effective detection and improved management of NAFLD-related HCC. The integration of non-invasive tools and algorithms into risk stratification strategies could have the capacity to enhance NAFLD-related HCC screening and surveillance effectiveness. Alongside exploring the potential advancement of non-invasive tools and algorithms for effectively stratifying HCC risk in NAFLD, we offer essential perspectives that could enable readers to improve the personalized assessment of NAFLD-related HCC risk through a more methodical screening approach.

Real-World Primary Care Data Comparing ALT and FIB-4 in Predicting Future Severe Liver Disease Outcomes

BACKGROUND

Alanine aminotransferase (ALT) has long provided a cue for chronic liver disease (CLD) diagnostic evaluation, but the Fibrosis-4 Index (FIB-4), a serologic score used for predicting advanced fibrosis risk in CLD, may provide an alternative signal.

OBJECTIVE

Compare the predictive performance of FIB-4 with ALT for severe liver disease (SLD) events while adjusting for potential confounders.

DESIGN

Retrospective cohort study of primary care electronic health record data from 2012 to 2021.

PATIENTS

Adult primary care patients with at least two sets of ALT and other lab values necessary for calculating two unique FIB-4 scores, excluding those patients with an SLD prior to their index FIB-4 value.

MAIN MEASURES

The occurrence of an SLD event, a composite of cirrhosis, hepatocellular carcinoma, and liver transplantation, was the outcome of interest. Categories of ALT elevation and FIB-4 advanced fibrosis risk were the primary predictor variables. Multivariable logistic regression models were developed to evaluate the association of FIB-4 and ALT with SLD, and the areas under the curve (AUC) for each model were compared.

KEY RESULTS

The cohort of 20,828 patients included 14% with an abnormal index ALT (≥40 IU/L) and 8% with a high-risk index FIB-4 (≥2.67). During the study period, 667 (3%) patients suffered an SLD event. Adjusted multivariable logistic regression models demonstrated an association between high-risk FIB-4 (OR 19.34; 95%CI 15.50-24.13), persistently high-risk FIB-4 (OR 23.85; 95%CI 18.24-31.17), abnormal ALT (OR 7.07; 95%CI 5.81-8.59), and persistently abnormal ALT (OR 7.58; 95%CI 5.97-9.62) with SLD outcomes. The AUC of the index FIB-4 (0.847, p < 0.001) and combined FIB-4 (0.849, p < 0.001) adjusted models exceeded the index ALT adjusted model (0.815).

CONCLUSIONS

High-risk FIB-4 scores demonstrated superior performance compared to abnormal ALT in predicting future SLD outcomes.

Environmental exposures are important risk factors for advanced liver fibrosis in African American adults

Background & Aims

The prevalence and aetiology of liver fibrosis vary over time and impact racial/ethnic groups unevenly. This study measured time trends and identified factors associated with advanced liver fibrosis in the United States.

Methods

Standardised methods were used to analyse data on 47,422 participants (≥20 years old) in the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (1999-2018). Advanced liver fibrosis was defined as Fibrosis-4 ≥2.67 and/or Forns index ≥6.9 and elevated alanine aminotransferase.

Results

The estimated number of people with advanced liver fibrosis increased from 1.3 million (95% CI 0.8-1.9) to 3.5 million (95% CI 2.8-4.2), a nearly threefold increase. Prevalence was higher in non-Hispanic Black and Mexican American persons than in non-Hispanic White persons. In multivariable logistic regression analysis, cadmium was an independent risk factor in all racial/ethnic groups. Smoking and current excessive alcohol use were risk factors in most. Importantly, compared with non-Hispanic White persons, non-Hispanic Black persons had a distinctive set of risk factors that included poverty (odds ratio [OR] 2.09; 95% CI 1.44-3.03) and susceptibility to lead exposure (OR 3.25; 95% CI 1.95-5.43) but did not include diabetes (OR 0.88; 95% CI 0.61-1.27; p =0.52). Non-Hispanic Black persons were more likely to have high exposure to lead, cadmium, polychlorinated biphenyls, and poverty than non-Hispanic White persons.

Conclusions

The number of people with advanced liver fibrosis has increased, creating a need to expand the liver care workforce. The risk factors for advanced fibrosis vary by race/ethnicity. These differences provide useful information for designing screening programmes. Poverty and toxic exposures were associated with the high prevalence of advanced liver fibrosis in non-Hispanic Black persons and need to be addressed.

Impact and Implications

Because liver disease often produces few warning signs, simple and inexpensive screening tests that can be performed by non-specialists are needed to allow timely diagnosis and linkage to care. This study shows that non-Hispanic Black persons have a distinctive set of risk factors that need to be taken into account when designing liver disease screening programs. Exposure to exogenous toxins may be especially important risk factors for advanced liver fibrosis in non-Hispanic Black persons.

How to Identify Advanced Fibrosis in Adult Patients with Non-Alcoholic Fatty Liver Disease (NAFLD) and Non-Alcoholic Steatohepatitis (NASH) Using Ultrasound Elastography-A Review of the Literature and Proposed Multistep Approach

Non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD), and its progressive form, non-alcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH), represent, nowadays, real challenges for the healthcare system. Liver fibrosis is the most important prognostic factor for NAFLD, and advanced fibrosis is associated with higher liver-related mortality rates. Therefore, the key issues in NAFLD are the differentiation of NASH from simple steatosis and identification of advanced hepatic fibrosis. We critically reviewed the ultrasound (US) elastography techniques for the quantitative characterization of fibrosis, steatosis, and inflammation in NAFLD and NASH, with a specific focus on how to differentiate advanced fibrosis in adult patients. Vibration-controlled transient elastography (VCTE) is still the most utilized and validated elastography method for liver fibrosis assessment. The recently developed point shear wave elastography (pSWE) and two-dimensional shear wave elastography (2D-SWE) techniques that use multiparametric approaches could bring essential improvements to diagnosis and risk stratification.

A higher FIB-4 index is associated with an increased incidence of renal failure in the general population

The Fibrosis-4 index (FIB-4) is a recommended noninvasive fibrosis test in patients at risk of liver fibrosis. Chronic liver diseases are often associated with kidney diseases. This study aimed to investigate the association between FIB-4 and the development of renal failure among the general population. For this study, we used the Disease Analyzer database, which includes diagnoses and basic medical and demographic data of patients followed in general practices in Germany. Using these data, we extensively matched patients with a FIB-4 index ≥ 1.3 (n = 66,084) to patients with a FIB-4 index < 1.3 (n = 66,084). The primary outcome was the incidence of renal failure or chronic renal failure during a 10-year period. Within 10 years of the index date, 9.2% of patients with a FIB-4 < 1.3 and 10.6% of patients with a FIB-4 ≥ 1.3 were diagnosed with renal failure (p = 0.007). The endpoint chronic renal failure was reached by 7.9% with a FIB-4 < 1.3 and 9.5% with a FIB-4 ≥ 1.3 (p < 0.001). A FIB-4 index ≥ 1.3 was associated with a slight increase in renal failure incidence (hazard ratio [HR]: 1.08, p = 0.009). There was an increasing association between an increase in FIB-4 index and the incidence of renal failure with the strongest association for a FIB-4 index ≥ 2.67 (HR: 1.34, p = 0.001). In sensitivity analyses, a significant association was found for the age group of 51-60 years (HR: 1.38, p < 0.001), patients with arterial hypertension (HR: 1.15, p < 0.001), obese patients (HR: 1.25, p = 0.005), and patients with lipid metabolism disorders (HR:1.22, p < 0.001). Conclusion: A higher FIB-4 index is associated with an increased incidence of renal failure. Therefore, the FIB-4 index may be useful in identifying patients who are at risk not only for liver-related events but also for renal disease.