Health systems' "surge capacity": state of the art and priorities for future research

Under-Funded and Under-Pressure: State Epidemiologists During the COVID-19 Response

OBJECTIVES

We conducted interviews with state epidemiologists involved in the state-level COVID-19 response to understand the challenges and opportunities that state epidemiologists and state health departments faced during COVID-19 and consider the implications for future pandemic responses.

METHODS

As part of a broader study on policymaking during COVID-19, we analyzed 12 qualitative interviews with state-epidemiologists from 11 US states regarding the challenges and opportunities they experienced during the COVID-19 response.

RESULTS

Interviewees described the unprecedented demands COVID-19 placed on them, including increased workloads as well as political and public scrutiny. Decades of under-funding and constraints posed particular challenges for meeting these demands and compromised state responses. Emergency funding contributed to ameliorating some challenges. However, state health departments were unable to absorb the funds quickly, which created added pressure for employees. The emergency funding also did not resolve longstanding resource deficits.

CONCLUSIONS

State health departments were not equipped to meet the demands of a comprehensive COVID-19 response, and increased funding failed to address shortfalls. Effective future pandemic responses will require sustained investment and adequate support to manage on-going and surge capacity needs. Increased public interest and skepticism complicated the COVID-19 response, and additional measures are needed to address these factors.

Surge capacity and practice management challenges of Canadian family physicians during COVID-19: a qualitative study

BACKGROUND

Planning for surge capacity, that is, the ability of a health service to expand beyond normal capacity and meet an increased demand for clinical care, is an essential component of public health emergency preparedness. During the COVID-19 pandemic, family physicians (FPs) were called upon to provide surge capacity in settings such as hospital units and emergency departments while also maintaining their primary care responsibilities. Most research reports on projection models, hospital settings, or the use of virtual care, with limited focus on the firsthand experiences of FPs in this role. To address this gap, this study examines the experiences of FPs and their roles in supporting surge capacity during the COVID-19 pandemic.

METHODS

As part of a mixed methods, multiple case study, we conducted semi-structured interviews with FPs between October 2020 and June 2021 across four Canadian provinces (British Columbia, Ontario, Nova Scotia, Newfoundland and Labrador). During the interviews, FPs were asked about the roles they assumed during the different stages of the pandemic and the factors that impacted their ability to fulfil these roles. Interviews were transcribed verbatim and a thematic analysis approach was employed to identify recurring themes.

RESULTS

We interviewed a total of 68 FPs across the four provinces and identified two overarching themes: (1) mechanisms used to create surge capacity by FPs, and (2) key considerations for an organized surge capacity program. During the pandemic, surge capacity was achieved by extending FP working hours, expanding the FP workforce, and redeploying FPs to new roles and settings. The effective implementation of FP surge capacity requires organized communication and coordination mechanisms, policies to clarify scope of practice during redeployment, training and mentorship related to new redeployment roles, FPs holding hospital privileges, and policies that help to preserve primary care capacity.

CONCLUSIONS

FPs make critical contributions to surge capacity but require structured support to balance their redeployment roles with their ongoing primary care responsibilities. Ensuring adequate coverage for their practices and employing strong communication and coordination mechanisms are essential for maintaining high-quality care and managing the strain on FPs and the health system during public health emergencies.

A national study of in-hospital preparedness for Mass Casualty Incidents and disasters

PURPOSE

The current geopolitical situation and climate changes accentuate the importance of health preparedness. The aim was to examine the in-hospital preparedness for Mass Casualty Incidents (MCI) and Major Incidents (MI) on a national level.

METHOD

A web-based, cross-sectional study of in-hospital preparedness for MCI/MI in Norway. All hospitals with trauma function were included with 3 defined representatives, excluding hospitals without trauma function. The survey consisted of 63 questions covering: MCI/MI organisation, education, plans, Surge Capacity, triage and supply management.

RESULTS

The study had a response rate of 97/112 (87%), representing 35/38 (92%) of the included hospitals. Contingency responsible respondents (CRR) reported that 27/34 (80%) of the hospitals had a contingency responsible function/role and 29/34 (85%) had a Disaster Preparedness Committee. Among CRR, formal MCI/MI education 5/34 (15%) and MCI/MI training 9/34 (26%) was completed. Further, 87/97 (90%) had an all-hazard contingency plan. MCI/MI exercise within the last 2 years was reported by 63/97 (65%). Surge Capacity was assessed within the last 5 years at 6/35 (17%) of the hospitals. MCI/MI material storage was reported by 56/97 (58%).

CONCLUSION

Many key aspects of contingency work were found to be well-established. MCI/MI education and training for roles/functions was missing in most hospitals. Areas of improvement detected included Surge Capacity and emergency storage. The results suggest a need for national minimum standards and requirements. National in-hospital MCI/MI preparedness could be monitored by a web-based survey, providing information of pan-European relevance.

State of Disaster Science: A Review on Management of Large-Scale Patient Surge

The National Disaster Medical System (NDMS) is a US federally coordinated healthcare system that aims to strengthen its capacity for surge management. We conducted a literature review to aid in the development of a research landscape analysis and strategy for the ongoing NDMS Pilot Program. The review was performed to identify surge management literature published from 2001 to spring 2023. Articles were screened using eligibility criteria and selected for analysis based on a consensus process. The search yielded 504 unique articles after deduplications. After abstract screening, 100 articles were screened for relevance. The final sample included 28 articles that were analyzed using themes relevant to the NDMS Pilot Program. This article discusses lessons learned and recommendations for program leadership to optimize outcomes during a surge event. NDMS should consider methods for improving situational awareness during surge events and should include stakeholders in planning and evaluation of the NDMS Pilot Program. Priority recommendations include strengthening operational coordination and leadership, enhancing information-sharing capabilities, and addressing funding and resource allocation. Findings from this review highlight current practices in surge management as well as gaps in current operational research areas. Addressing these gaps has the potential to strengthen the capacity of the NDMS Pilot Program and health system disaster preparedness more broadly across the United States.

Applying the Surge Capacity Components for Capacity-Building Purposes in the Context of the EMT Initiative

BACKGROUND

On 16 January 2021 (EB148/18 Session), the World Health Organization (WHO) and Member States emphasized the importance of expanding the WHO Emergency Medical Teams (EMT) Initiative, investing in a global health workforce and multidisciplinary teams capable of being rapidly deployed, equipped, and fully trained to respond to all-hazard emergencies effectively. This resulted in the need to define a comprehensive framework. To achieve this, the EMT Initiative proposes the application of the four components of Surge Capacity, known as the 4"S" (Staff, Systems, Supplies, and Structure/Space), to build global capacities and capabilities, ensuring rapid mobilization and efficient coordination of national and international medical teams for readiness and response, complying with crisis standards of care defined in an ethical and evidence-based manner. Methods: A mixed-qualitative research approach was used, incorporating expert consensus through focus group discussions (FGDs), between 2021 and July 2022. This facilitated a detailed process analysis for the application of the surge capacity components to build global capacities and capabilities. This research highlighted the similarities between surge capacity and capacity building from an initial desk review and unified these concepts within the EMT Initiative. A standardized formal pathway was developed to enhance local, regional, and global capacities for emergency readiness and response. Results: The results showed that the framework successfully integrated the essential components of surge capacity and capacity building, making it adaptable to various settings.

CONCLUSIONS

This framework provides a unified and replicable approach for readiness and response for all-hazards emergencies.

Illustrating the Anticipate, Recruit, Retain, Adapt, Sustain (ARRAS) Framework for Surge Capacity. How Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, and Nepal Maintained Their Health Workforce During COVID-19

Surge capacity-the ability to acquire additional workers and resources during unexpected increases in service demand-is often perceived as a luxury. However, the COVID-19 pandemic necessitated an urgent expansion of surge capacity within health systems globally. Health systems in Bangladesh, Nepal, and Sri Lanka managed to scale up their capacities despite severely limited budgets. This study employs a mixed-methods approach, integrating qualitative interviews with quantitative data analysis, to propose a comprehensive framework for understanding Human Resources for Health (HRH) surge capacity from 2018 to 2021, termed ARRAS: Anticipate, Recruit, Retain, Adapt, Sustain. We present national-level data to demonstrate how each country was able to maintain their per capita health care workforce during the crisis. Interviews with key informants from each country reinforce the ARRAS framework. Quantitative data revealed ongoing increases in doctors and nurses pre- and post-pandemic, but no country could rapidly expand its health workforce during the crisis. Qualitative findings highlighted critical strategies such as pre-crisis planning, financial incentives, telemedicine, and re-skilling the workforce. Despite adaptive measures, challenges included inadequate funding, poor data systems, and coordination issues. This study underscores the necessity for robust, long-term strategies to enhance surge capacity and better prepare health systems for future crises.

Managing Surges in Demand: A Grounded Conceptual Framework of Surge Management Capability

Surge management is important to hospital operations, yet surge literature has mostly focused on the addition of resources (e.g., 25% more beds) during events like pandemics. Such views are limiting, as meeting surge demands requires hospitals to engage in practices tailored to a surge's unique contingencies. We argue that a dynamic view of surge management should include surge management capability, which refers to how resources are deployed to respond to surge contingencies. To understand this capability, we qualitatively studied five hospital systems experiencing multiple surges due to COVID-19 between April 2020 and March 2022. We develop a framework showing that managing surges involves preserving capacity, expanding capacity, smoothing capacity demand, and enabling surge management. We contribute to surge literature by identifying practices hospitals can adopt to address surges and offering a better understanding of surge conditions (e.g., degree of novelty) that make some surge management practices more appropriate than others.

The effect of public hospital closure on the death of long-term inpatients in Korea

OBJECTIVES

This study aimed to examine the changes in health outcomes and the patterns of medical institution utilization among patients with long-term stays in public hospitals following the closure of a public medical center. It also sought to present a proposal regarding the role of public hospitals in countries with healthcare systems predominantly driven by private entities, such as Korea.

METHODS

To assess the impact of a public healthcare institution closure on health outcomes in a specific region, we utilized nationally representative health insurance claims data. A retrospective cohort study was conducted for this analysis.

RESULTS

An analysis of the medical utilization patterns of patients after the closure of Jinju Medical Center showed that 67.4% of the total medical usage was redirected to long-term care hospitals. This figure is notably high in comparison to the 20% utilization rate of nursing hospitals observed among patients from other medical facilities. These results indicate that former patients of Jinju Medical Center may have experienced limitations in accessing necessary medical services beyond nursing care. After accounting for relevant mortality factors, the analysis showed that the mortality rate in closed public hospitals was 2.47 (95% confidence interval, 0.85 to 0.96) times higher than in private hospitals.

CONCLUSIONS

The closure of public medical institutions has resulted in unmet healthcare needs, and an observed association was observed with increased mortality rates. It is essential to define the role and objectives of public medical institutions, taking into account the distribution of healthcare resources and the conditions of the population.

Lessons learned from the COVID-19 response in Sri Lankan hospitals: an interview of frontline healthcare professionals

Introduction

The COVID-19 pandemic revealed the lack of preparedness in health systems, even in developed countries. Studies published on COVID-19 management experiences in developing countries, including Sri Lanka, are significantly low. Therefore, lessons learned from pandemic management would be immensely helpful in improving health systems for future disaster situations. This study aimed to identify enablers and barriers to COVID-19 management in Sri Lankan hospitals through healthcare workers' perceptions.

Methods

Frontline doctors and nurses from different levels of public hospitals were interviewed online. Both inductive and deductive coding and thematic analysis were performed on the transcribed data.

Result and discussion

This study identified four themes under enablers: preparing for surge, teamwork, helping hands and less hospital-acquired infections. Seven themes were identified as barriers: lack of information sharing, lack of testing facilities, issues with emergency equipment, substandard donations, overwhelmed morgues, funding issues and psychological impact. These preparedness gaps were more prominent in smaller hospitals compared with larger hospitals. Recommendations were provided based on the identified gaps.

Conclusion

The insights from this study will allow health administrators and policymakers to build upon their hospital's resources and capabilities. These findings may be used to provide sustainable solutions, strengthening the resilience of the local Sri Lankan health system as well as the health systems of other countries.

A Multisite Investigation of Areas for Improvement in COVID-19 Surge Capacity Management

The congressionally authorized National Disaster Medical System Pilot Program was created in December 2019 to strengthen the medical surge capability, capacity, and interoperability of affiliated healthcare facilities in 5 regions across the United States. The COVID-19 pandemic provided an unprecedented opportunity to learn how participating healthcare facilities handled medical surge events during an active public health emergency. We applied a modified version of the Barbisch and Koenig 4-S framework (staff, stuff, space, systems) to analyze COVID-19 surge management practices implemented by healthcare stakeholders at 5 pilot sites. In total, 32 notable practices were identified to increase surge capacity during the COVID-19 pandemic that have potential applications for other healthcare facilities. We found that systems was the most prevalent domain of surge capacity among the identified practices. Systems and staff were discussed across all 5 pilot sites and were the 2 domains co-occurring most often within each surge management practice. These results can inform strategies for scaling up and optimizing medical surge capability, capacity, and interoperability of healthcare facilities nationwide. This study also specifies areas of surge capacity worthy of strategic focus in the pilot's planning and implementation efforts while more broadly informing the US healthcare system's response to future large-scale, medical surge events.

Enhancing a Willingness to Respond to Disasters and Public Health Emergencies Among Health Care Workers, Using mHealth Intervention: A Multidisciplinary Approach

Health care workers (HCWs) are increasingly faced with the continuous threat of confronting acute disasters, extreme weather-related events, and protracted public health emergencies. One of the major factors that determines emergency-department-based HCWs' willingness to respond during public health emergencies and disasters is self-efficacy. Despite increased public awareness of the threat of disasters and heightened possibility of future public health emergencies, the emphasis on preparing the health care workforce for such disasters is inadequate in low-and-middle-income countries (LMICs). Interventions for boosting self-efficacy and response willingness in public health emergencies and disasters have yet to be implemented or examined among emergency HCWs in LMICs. Mobile health (mHealth) technology seems to be a promising platform for such interventions, especially in a resource-constrained setting. This paper introduces an mHealth-focused project that demonstrates a model of multi-institutional and multidisciplinary collaboration for research and training to enhance disaster response willingness among emergency department workers in Pakistan.

Resilience in keeping the balance between demand and capacity in the COVID-19 pandemic, a case study at a Swedish middle-sized hospital

BACKGROUND

In pandemics, it is critical to find a balance between healthcare demand, and capacity, taking into consideration the demands of the patients affected by the pandemic, as well as other patients (in elective or emergency care). The purpose of this paper is to suggest conceptual models for the capacity requirements at the emergency department, the inpatient care, and intensive care unit as well as a model for building staff capacity in pandemics.

METHODS

This paper is based on a qualitative single case study at a middle-sized hospital in Sweden. The primary data are collected from 27 interviewees and inductively analyzed.

RESULTS

The interviewees described a large difference between the immediate catastrophe scenario described in the emergency plan (which they had trained for), and the reality during the COVID-19 pandemic. The pandemic had a much slower onset and lasted longer compared to, for example, an accident, and the healthcare demand fluctuated with the societal infection. The emergency department and inpatient care could create surge capacity by reducing elective care. Lower inflow of other emergency patients also helped to create surge capacity. The number of intensive care beds increased by 350% at the case hospital. At the same time, the capacity of the employees decreased due to infection, exhaustion, and fear. The study contributes to knowledge of conceptional models and key factors affecting the balance between demand and capacity.

CONCLUSION

The framework suggests conceptual models for balancing surge capacity during a pandemic Health care practitioners need to provide assumptions of the key factors to find the balance between the demand and capacity corresponding to the reality and maintain the delivery of high-quality healthcare services.

Hospital Staffing during the COVID-19 Pandemic in Sweden

Staff management challenges in the healthcare system are inherently different during pandemic conditions than under normal circumstances. Surge capacity must be rapidly increased, particularly in the intensive care units (ICU), to handle the increased pressure, without depleting the rest of the system. In addition, sickness or fatigue among the staff can become a critical issue. This study explores the lessons learned by first- and second-line managers in Sweden with regard to staff management during the COVID-19 pandemic. A mixed-methods approach was used, with preliminary qualitative interview (n = 38) and principal quantitative questionnaire (n = 272) studies, based on principal component and multiple regression analyses. The results revealed that the pandemic created four types of challenges relating to staff management: staff movement within hospitals; addition of external staff; addition of hours for existing staff through overtime and new shift schedules; and avoidance of lost hours due to sickness or fatigue. Furthermore, the effects of these managerial challenges were different in the first wave than in later waves, and they significantly differed between the ICU and other units. Therefore, a greater proactive focus on staff management would be beneficial in future pandemic situations.

Is there an association between hospital staffing levels and inpatient-COVID-19 mortality rates?

Objective

This study aims to investigate the relationship between RNs and hospital-based medical specialties staffing levels with inpatient COVID-19 mortality rates.

Methods

We relied on data from AHA Annual Survey Database, Area Health Resource File, and UnitedHealth Group Clinical Discovery Database. In phase 1 of the analysis, we estimated the risk-standardized event rates (RSERs) based on 95,915 patients in the UnitedHealth Group Database 1,398 hospitals. We then used beta regression to analyze the association between hospital- and county- level factors with risk-standardized inpatient COVID-19 mortality rates from March 1, 2020, through December 31, 2020.

Results

Higher staffing levels of RNs and emergency medicine physicians were associated with lower COVID-19 mortality rates. Moreover, larger teaching hospitals located in urban settings had higher COVID-19 mortality rates. Finally, counties with greater social vulnerability, specifically in terms of housing type and transportation, and those with high infection rates had the worst patient mortality rates.

Conclusion

Higher staffing levels are associated with lower inpatient mortality rates for COVID-19 patients. More research is needed to determine appropriate staffing levels and how staffing levels interact with other factors such as teams, leadership, and culture to impact patient care during pandemics.

Hospital Surge Capacity Preparedness in Disasters and Emergencies: Protocol for a Systematic Review

Hospitals' medical surge preparedness or surge capacity preparedness plays a significant role in reducing mortalities and in the treatment of severe injuries in disasters and emergencies. Though actions or activities for surge capacity preparedness of hospitals are discussed in several studies, they remain fragmented and need to be compiled. This systematic review will provide a comprehensive synthesis of evidence of actions or steps taken to strengthen hospitals' medical surge preparedness in disasters and emergencies, which will eventually help develop surge capacity programs and relevant policies. All the studies published in peer-reviewed journals between 1 January 2016 and 30 July 2022, with full text available, will be included in this review. Seven electronic databases-PubMed, Scopus, MEDLINE, CINAHL, Embase, PsycINFO, and Ovid-will be searched. Two reviewers will independently screen the titles and abstracts using the eligibility criteria, review full-text articles, and extract data with the help of CADIMA software. A third reviewer will help resolve any discrepancies during the whole process. The extracted data will be narratively synthesized with the key characteristics and findings of the studies. The NIH quality assessment tools will be used to scale up the the quality of the retrieved quantitative studies. Moreover, the mixed methods appraisal tool (MMAT) and Noyes et al. guidelines will be used to assess the mixed methods studies and qualitative studies quality assessment, respectively.

A method for detailed determination of hospital surge capacity: a prerequisite for optimal preparedness for mass-casualty incidents

BACKGROUND

Defined goals for hospitals' ability to handle mass-casualty incidents (MCI) are a prerequisite for optimal planning as well as training, and also as base for quality assurance and improvement. This requires methods to test individual hospitals in sufficient detail to numerically determine surge capacity for different components of the hospitals. Few such methods have so far been available. The aim of the present study was with the use of a simulation model well proven and validated for training to determine capacity-limiting factors in a number of hospitals, identify how these factors were related to each other and also possible measures for improvement of capacity.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

As simulation tool was used the MACSIM® system, since many years used for training in the international MRMI courses and also successfully used in a pilot study of surge capacity in a major hospital. This study included 6 tests in three different hospitals, in some before and after re-organisation, and in some both during office- and non-office hours.

RESULTS

The primary capacity-limiting factor in all hospitals was the capacity to handle severely injured patients (major trauma) in the emergency department. The load of such patients followed in all the tests a characteristic pattern with "peaks" corresponding to ambulances return after re-loading. Already the first peak exceeded the hospitals capacity for major trauma, and the following peaks caused waiting times for such patients leading to preventable mortality according to the patient-data provided by the system. This emphasises the need of an immediate and efficient coordination of the distribution of casualties between hospitals. The load on surgery came in all tests later, permitting either clearing of occupied theatres (office hours) or mobilising staff (non-office hours) sufficient for all casualties requiring immediate surgery. The final capacity-limiting factors in all tests was the access to intensive care, which also limited the capacity for surgery. On a scale 1-10, participating staff evaluated the accuracy of the methodology for test of surge capacity to MD 8 (IQR 2), for improvement of disaster plans to MD 9 (IQR 2) and for simultaneous training to MD 9 (IQR 3).

CONCLUSIONS

With a simulation system including patient data with a sufficient degree of detail, it was possible to identify and also numerically determine the critical capacity-limiting factors in the different phases of the hospital response to MCI, to serve as a base for planning, training, quality control and also necessary improvement to rise surge capacity of the individual hospital.

Establishing the Domains of a Hospital Disaster Preparedness Evaluation Tool: A Systematic Review

Introduction:

Recent disasters emphasize the need for disaster risk mitigation in the health sector. A lack of standardized tools to assess hospital disaster preparedness hinders the improvement of emergency/disaster preparedness in hospitals. There is very limited research on evaluation of hospital disaster preparedness tools.

Objective:

This study aimed to determine the presence and availability of hospital preparedness tools across the world, and to identify the important components of those study instruments.

Method:

A systematic review was performed using three databases, namely Ovid Medline, Embase, and CINAHL, as well as available grey literature sourced by Google, relevant websites, and also from the reference lists of selected articles. The studies published on hospital disaster preparedness across the world from 2011-2020, written in English language, were selected by two independent reviewers. The global distribution of studies was analyzed according to the World Health Organization’s (WHO) six geographical regions, and also according to the four categories of the United Nations Human Development Index (UNHDI). The preparedness themes were identified and categorized according to the 4S conceptual framework: space, stuff, staff, and systems.

Result:

From a total of 1,568 articles, 53 met inclusion criteria and were selected for data extraction and synthesis. Few published studies had used a study instrument to assess hospital disaster preparedness. The Eastern Mediterranean region recorded the highest number of such publications. The countries with a low UNHDI were found to have a smaller number of publications. Developing countries had more focus on preparedness for natural disasters and less focus on chemical, biological, radiological, and nuclear (CBRN) preparedness. Infrastructure, logistics, capacity building, and communication were the priority themes under the space, stuff, staff, and system domains of the 4S framework, respectively. The majority of studies had neglected some crucial aspects of hospital disaster preparedness, such as transport, back-up power, morgue facilities and dead body handling, vaccination, rewards/incentive, and volunteers.

Conclusion:

Important preparedness themes were identified under each domain of the 4S framework. The neglected aspects should be properly addressed in order to ensure adequate preparedness of hospitals. The results of this review can be used for planning a comprehensive disaster preparedness tool.

European countries' responses in ensuring sufficient physical infrastructure and workforce capacity during the first COVID-19 wave

The COVID-19 pandemic has placed unprecedented pressure on health systems' capacities. These capacities include physical infrastructure, such as bed capacities and medical equipment, and healthcare professionals. Based on information extracted from the COVID-19 Health System Reform Monitor, this paper analyses the strategies that 45 countries in Europe have taken to secure sufficient health care infrastructure and workforce capacities to tackle the crisis, focusing on the hospital sector. While pre-crisis capacities differed across countries, some strategies to boost surge capacity were very similar. All countries designated COVID-19 units and expanded hospital and ICU capacities. Additional staff were mobilised and the existing health workforce was redeployed to respond to the surge in demand for care. While procurement of personal protective equipment at the international and national levels proved difficult at the beginning due to global shortages, countries found innovative solutions to increase internal production and enacted temporary measures to mitigate shortages. The pandemic has shown that coordination mechanisms informed by real-time monitoring of available health care resources are a prerequisite for adaptive surge capacity in public health crises, and that closer cooperation between countries is essential to build resilient responses to COVID-19.

"Well, I Signed Up to Be a Soldier; I Have Been Trained and Equipped Well": Exploring Healthcare Workers' Experiences during COVID-19 Organizational Changes in Singapore, from the First Wave to the Path towards Endemicity

(1) Background: As COVID-19 transmission continues despite vaccination programs, healthcare workers (HCWs) face an ongoing pandemic response. We explore the effects of this on (1) Heartware, by which we refer to morale and commitment of HCWs; and identify how to improve (2) Hardware, or ways of enabling operational safety and functioning. (2) Methods: Qualitative e-diary entries were shared by HCWs during the early phases of the outbreak in Singapore from June to August 2020. Data were collected via an online survey of n = 3616 HCWs of all cadres. Nine institutions—restructured hospitals (n = 5), affiliated primary partners (n = 2) and hospices (n = 2)—participated. Applied thematic analysis was undertaken and organized according to Heartware and Hardware. Major themes are in italics (3) Results: n = 663 (18%) HCWs submitted a qualitative entry. Dominant themes undermining (1) Heartware consisted of burnout from being overworked and emotional exhaustion and at times feeling a lack of appreciation or support at work. The most common themes overriding morale breakers were a stoic acceptance to fight, adjust and hold the line, coupled with motivation from engaging leadership and supportive colleagues. The biggest barrier in (2) Hardware analysis related to sub-optimal segregation strategies within wards and designing better protocols for case detection, triage, and admissions criteria. Overall, the most cited enabler was the timely and well-planned provision of Personal Protective Equipment (PPE) for front-liners, though scope for scale-up was called for by those not considered frontline. Analysis maps internal organizational functioning to wider external public and policy-related narratives. (4) Conclusions: COVID-19 surges are becoming endemic rather than exceptional events. System elasticity needs to build on known pillars coupling improving safety and care delivery with improving HCW morale. Accordingly, a model capturing such facets of Adaptive Pandemic Response derived from our data analyses is described. HCW burnout must be urgently addressed, and health systems moved away from reactive “wartime” response configurations.

The J-IDEA Pandemic Planner: A Framework for Implementing Hospital Provision Interventions During the COVID-19 Pandemic

BACKGROUND

Planning for extreme surges in demand for hospital care of patients requiring urgent life-saving treatment for coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), while retaining capacity for other emergency conditions, is one of the most challenging tasks faced by health care providers and policymakers during the pandemic. Health systems must be well-prepared to cope with large and sudden changes in demand by implementing interventions to ensure adequate access to care. We developed the first planning tool for the COVID-19 pandemic to account for how hospital provision interventions (such as cancelling elective surgery, setting up field hospitals, or hiring retired staff) will affect the capacity of hospitals to provide life-saving care.

METHODS

We conducted a review of interventions implemented or considered in 12 European countries in March to April 2020, an evaluation of their impact on capacity, and a review of key parameters in the care of COVID-19 patients. This information was used to develop a planner capable of estimating the impact of specific interventions on doctors, nurses, beds, and respiratory support equipment. We applied this to a scenario-based case study of 1 intervention, the set-up of field hospitals in England, under varying levels of COVID-19 patients.

RESULTS

The Abdul Latif Jameel Institute for Disease and Emergency Analytics pandemic planner is a hospital planning tool that allows hospital administrators, policymakers, and other decision-makers to calculate the amount of capacity in terms of beds, staff, and crucial medical equipment obtained by implementing the interventions. Flexible assumptions on baseline capacity, the number of hospitalizations, staff-to-beds ratios, and staff absences due to COVID-19 make the planner adaptable to multiple settings. The results of the case study show that while field hospitals alleviate the burden on the number of beds available, this intervention is futile unless the deficit of critical care nurses is addressed first.

DISCUSSION

The tool supports decision-makers in delivering a fast and effective response to the pandemic. The unique contribution of the planner is that it allows users to compare the impact of interventions that change some or all inputs.

Surge Capacity Crisis and Mitigation Plan in Trauma Setting Based on Real-Time National Trauma Registry Data

BACKGROUND

The objective of this study was to assess the current breaking point of crisis surge capacity of trauma services in Qatar and to develop a mitigation plan.

METHODS

The study utilized real-time data from the National Trauma Registry. Data was explored cumulatively by weeks, months and a year's interval and all trauma admissions within this time frame were considered as 1 'Disaster Incident.'

RESULTS

A total of 2479 trauma patients were included in the study over 1 year. The mean age of patients was 31.5 ± 15.9 and 84% were males. The number of patients who sustained severe trauma which necessitated Level 1 activation was 16%. The emergency medical services (EMS) surge attained crisis of operational capacity at 5 months of disaster incident for priority 1 cases. Bed capacity at the floor was the first to reach operational crisis followed by the ICU and operating room. The gap in the surge for surgical interventions was specific to the specialty and surgery type which reached operational crisis at 3 months.

CONCLUSION

The study highlights the surge capacity and capability of the healthcare system at a Level 1 trauma center. The identified gaps in surge capacity require several key components of healthcare resources to be addressed across the continuum of care.

COVID-19 Pandemic Planning: Simulation Models to Predict Biochemistry Test Capacity for Patient Surges

Background

Patient surges beyond hospital capacity during the initial phase of the COVID-19 pandemic emphasized a need for clinical laboratories to prepare test processes to support future patient care. The objective of this study was to determine if current instrumentation in local hospital laboratories can accommodate the anticipated workload from COVID-19 infected patients in hospitals and a proposed field hospital in addition to testing for non-infected patients.

Methods

Simulation models predicted instrument throughput and turn-around-time for chemistry, ion-selective-electrode and immunoassay tests using vendor-developed software with different workload scenarios. The expanded workload included tests from anticipated COVID patients in two local hospitals and a proposed field hospital with a COVID-specific test menu in addition to the pre-pandemic workload.

Results

Instrumentation throughput and turn-around time at each site was predicted. With additional COVID-patient beds in each hospital the maximum throughput was approached with no impact on turnaround time. Addition of the field hospital workload led to significantly increased test turnaround times at each site.

Conclusions

Simulation models depicted the analytic capacity and turn-around times for laboratory tests at each site and identified the laboratory best suited for field hospital laboratory support during the pandemic.

US Hospital Capacity Managers' Experiences and Concerns Regarding Preparedness for Seasonal Influenza and Influenza-like Illness

IMPORTANCE

The 2017-2018 influenza season in the US was marked by a high severity of illness, wide geographic spread, and prolonged duration compared with recent previous seasons, resulting in increased strain throughout acute care hospital systems.

OBJECTIVE

To characterize self-reported experiences and views of hospital capacity managers regarding the 2017-2018 influenza season in the US.

DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS

In this qualitative study, semistructured telephone interviews were conducted between April 2018 and January 2019 with a random sample of capacity management administrators responsible for throughput and hospital capacity at short-term, acute care hospitals throughout the US.

MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES

Each participant's self-reported experiences and views regarding high patient volumes during the 2017-2018 influenza season, lessons learned, and the extent of hospitals' preparedness planning for future pandemic events. Interviews were recorded and transcribed and then analyzed using thematic content analysis. Outcomes included themes and subthemes.

RESULTS

A total of 53 key hospital capacity personnel at 53 hospitals throughout the US were interviewed; 39 (73.6%) were women, 48 (90.6%) had a nursing background, and 29 (54.7%) had been in the occupational role for more than 4 years. Participants' experiences were categorized into several domains: (1) perception of strain, (2) effects of influenza and influenza-like illness on staff and patient care, (3) immediate staffing and capacity responses to influenza and influenza-like illness, and (4) future staffing and capacity preparedness for influenza and influenza-like illness. Participants reported experiencing perceived strain associated with concerns about preparedness for seasonal influenza and influenza-like illness as well as concerns about staffing, patient care, and capacity, but future pandemic planning within hospitals was not reported as being a high priority.

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE

The findings of this qualitative study suggest that during the 2017-2018 influenza season, there were systemic vulnerabilities as well as a lack of hospital preparedness planning for future pandemics at US hospitals. These issues should be addressed given the current coronavirus disease 2019 pandemic.

Global health and innovation: A panoramic view on health human resources in the COVID-19 pandemic context

While policy‐makers in many jurisdictions are paying increasing attention to health workforce issues, human resources remain at best only partially aligned with population health needs. This paper explores the governance of human resources during the pandemic, looking at the Quebec health system as a revelatory case. We identify three issues related to health human resource (HHR) policies: working conditions, recognition at work and scope of practice. We empirically probe these issues based on an analysis of popular media, policy reports and participant observation by the lead authors in various forums and research projects. Using an integrated model of HHR, we identify major vulnerabilities in this domain. Persistent labour shortages, endemic deficiencies in working environments and inequity across occupational categories limit the ability to address critical HHR issues. We propose three ways to eliminate HHR vulnerabilities: reorganize work through participatory initiatives, implement joint policy making to rebalance power across the health workforce, and invest in the development of capacities at all system levels.

Successfully Deploying Your Valuable Resources:: Staffing Implications and Prioritization During Crisis

Whether your facility is standalone or part of a multihospital system, meeting operational demand for patient care under routine circumstances can be challenging. Vacancies, prolonged recruitment time to fill positions, and unscheduled absences and leaves, combined with increased acuity and volume, can strain and overwhelm a facility's resources during noncrisis circumstances. This article explores the challenges of staffing during a crisis and patient surge, providing strategies that can be utilized to optimize resources.

Achieving flexible competence: bridging the investment dichotomy between infectious diseases and cancer

Today's global health challenges in underserved communities include the growing burden of cancer and other non-communicable diseases (NCDs); infectious diseases (IDs) with epidemic and pandemic potential such as COVID-19; and health effects from catastrophic 'all hazards' disasters including natural, industrial or terrorist incidents. Healthcare disparities in low-income and middle-income countries and in some rural areas in developed countries make it a challenge to mitigate these health, socioeconomic and political consequences on our globalised society. As with IDs, cancer requires rapid intervention and its effective medical management and prevention encompasses the other major NCDs. Furthermore, the technology and clinical capability for cancer care enables management of NCDs and IDs. Global health initiatives that call for action to address IDs and cancer often focus on each problem separately, or consider cancer care only a downstream investment to primary care, missing opportunities to leverage investments that could support broader capacity-building. From our experience in health disparities, disaster preparedness, government policy and healthcare systems we have initiated an approach we call flex-competence which emphasises a systems approach from the outset of program building that integrates investment among IDs, cancer, NCDs and disaster preparedness to improve overall healthcare for the local community. This approach builds on trusted partnerships, multi-level strategies and a healthcare infrastructure providing surge capacities to more rapidly respond to and manage a wide range of changing public health threats.

A Review on COVID-19 Mediated Impacts and Risk Mitigation Strategies for Dental Health Professionals

In the light of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), dentistry is facing unprecedented challenges. The closure of clinics has impacted dental health professionals (DHPs) not only financially but also psychologically. In this review, these consequences are discussed in detail to highlight the challenges that DHPs are facing thus far, in both developing and developed nations. Compromised mental health among DHPs is an important area that requires attention during this difficult period. Although, in previous pandemics, dentists have not worked on the frontline, the article discusses how their wide range of skillsets can be leveraged if another wave of COVID-19 pandemic appears. Finally, guidelines to reopen clinics and patient management have been discussed in detail that could serve as a quick reference guide for DHPs.

The National Patient Notification Exercise: How well did local breast screening services cope with the additional workload?

OBJECTIVE

To describe how three English breast screening services responded to the 2018 Patient Notification Exercise, a national intervention whereby women who had potentially missed their final screening invitation were offered new appointments. To compare key performance indicators for women thus invited with key performance indicators for women invited routinely in the same period.

METHODS

Uptake, assessment and cancer detection for 9439 women aged over 70 in the Patient Notification Exercise were compared with key performance indicators for 14,824 women, of similar age, who were routinely invited in the same period, using chi squared (χ²) tests. Invitation cancellation and attendance levels were also compared.

RESULTS

Uptake was significantly lower among Patient Notification Exercise women sent a new, timed appointment than for women who were routinely invited (67.3% and 70.8%, respectively, p = 0.001). Assessment rates were higher for Patient Notification Exercise women (5.2% vs. 4.4%, p = 0.192) as were cancer detection rates (1.87% vs. 1.28%, p = 0.080). Services achieved national round-length standards for routine invitations during and after the Patient Notification Exercise but screen-to-assessment standards were breached (80%) in the smallest service. More Patient Notification Exercise women than routinely invited women rebooked appointments (43.6% and 33.2%, respectively); they were also slightly more likely to miss their appointments (24.5% vs. 21.2%).

CONCLUSIONS

Screening invitation performance can be maintained whilst responding to an additional demand of ∼5%. Larger services that cover a compact geographical area may find it easier to respond. Women affected by the incident are not more likely to attend but may require relatively more assessment capacity in incidents where invitations have been delayed.

Five Challenges When Managing Mass Casualty or Disaster Situations: A Review Study

Background: Managing mass casualty or disaster incidents is challenging to any person or organisation. Therefore, this paper identifies and describes common challenges to managing such situations, using case and lessons learned reports. It focuses on sudden onset, man-made or technologically caused mass casualty or disaster situations. Methods: A management review was conducted based on a structured search in the PubMed and Web of Science databases. Results: The review included 20 case—and lessons learned reports covering natural disasters, man-made events, and accidents across Europe, the United States of Amerika (USA), Asia and the Middle East. Five common challenges were identified: (1) to identify the situation and deal with uncertainty, (2) to balance the mismatch between the contingency plan and the reality, (3) to establish a functional crisis organization, (4) to adapt the medical response to the actual and overall situation and (5) to ensure a resilient response. Conclusions: The challenges when managing mass casualty or disaster events involved were mainly related to the ability to manage uncertainty and surprising situations, using structured processes to respond. The ability to change mind set, organization and procedures, both from an organizational- and individual perspective, was essential. Non-medical factors and internal factors influenced the medical management. In order to respond in an effective, timely and resilient way, all these factors should be taken into consideration.

Development of a Hospital Medical Surge Preparedness Index using a national hospital survey

To generate a Hospital Medical Surge Preparedness Index that can be used to evaluate hospitals across the United States in regard to their capacity to handle patient surges during mass casualty events. Data from the American Hospital Association’s annual survey, conducted from 2005 to 2014. Our sample comprised 6239 hospitals across all 50 states, with an annual average of 5769 admissions. An extensive review of the American Hospital Association survey was conducted and relevant variables applicable to hospital inpatient services were extracted. Subject matter experts then categorized these items according to the following subdomains of the “Science of Surge” construct: staff, supplies, space, and system. The variables within these categories were then analyzed through exploratory and confirmatory factor analyses, concluding with the evaluation of internal reliability. Based on the combined results, we generated individual (by hospital) scores for each of the four metrics and an overall score. The exploratory factor analysis indicated a clustering of variables consistent with the “Science of Surge” subdomains, and this finding was in agreement with the statistics generated through the confirmatory factor analysis. We also found high internal reliability coefficients, with Cronbach’s alpha values for all constructs exceeding 0.9. A novel Hospital Medical Surge Preparedness Index linked to hospital metrics has been developed to assess a health care facility’s capacity to manage patients from mass casualty events. This index could be used by hospitals and emergency management planners to assess a facility’s readiness to provide care during disasters.

Challenges in the design, planning and implementation of trials evaluating group interventions

Background

Group interventions are interventions delivered to groups of people rather than to individuals and are used in healthcare for mental health recovery, behaviour change, peer support, self-management and/or health education. Evaluating group interventions in randomised controlled trials (RCTs) presents trialists with a set of practical problems, which are not present in RCTs of one-to-one interventions and which may not be immediately obvious.

Methods

Case-based approach summarising Sheffield trials unit’s experience in the design and implementation of five group interventions. We reviewed participant recruitment and attrition, facilitator training and attrition, attendance at the group sessions, group size and fidelity aspects across five RCTs.

Results

Median recruitment across the five trials was 3.2 (range 1.7–21.0) participants per site per month. Group intervention trials involve a delay in starting the intervention for some participants, until sufficient numbers are available to start a group. There was no evidence that the timing of consent, relative to randomisation, affected post-randomisation attrition which was a matter of concern for all trial teams. Group facilitator attrition was common in studies where facilitators were employed by the health system rather than the by the grant holder and led to the early closure of one trial; research sites responded by training ‘back-up’ and new facilitators. Trials specified that participants had to attend a median of 62.5% (range 16.7%–80%) of sessions, in order to receive a ‘therapeutic dose’; a median of 76.7% (range 42.9%–97.8%) received a therapeutic dose. Across the five trials, 75.3% of all sessions went ahead without the pre-specified ideal group size. A variety of methods were used to assess the fidelity of group interventions at a group and individual level across the five trials.

Conclusion

This is the first paper to provide an empirical basis for planning group intervention trials. Investigators should expect delays/difficulties in recruiting groups of the optimal size, plan for both facilitator and participant attrition, and consider how group attendance and group size affects treatment fidelity.

Trial registration

ISRCTN17993825 registered on 11/10/2016, ISRCTN28645428 registered on 11/04/2012, ISRCTN61215213 registered on 11/05/2011, ISRCTN67209155 registered on 22/03/2012, ISRCTN19447796 registered on 20/03/2014.

A Productive Proposed Search Syntax for Health Disaster Preparedness Research

Objective:

To find a proper search strategy to do a systematic review related to preparedness for disasters.

Methods:

MeSH and Emtree terms were searched to detect synonyms for two main search terms “disaster” and “preparedness”. Expert opinion on the synonyms was examined applying a Google form. The adopted syntax was searched in PubMed and results were sifted. Hand searching in two top key journals was done and sensitivity was calculated.

Results:

Out of 1120 articles, 122 were included. In PDM journal, 10 articles were included by hand searching, out of which 5 were not spotted in PubMed search with the proposed syntax. In DMPHP journal, 13 publications were included, with 5 not found in PubMed search. Because of human error in hand searching 2 articles were added.

Conclusion:

The proposed syntax in this study achieves a sensitivity of search of 0.6 in PubMed which could be quite applicable for researchers. Moreover, in case only MeSH or Emtree terms were applied in search strategy or where hand searching was not performed, there were a number of articles missed.

A Productive Proposed Search Syntax for Health Disaster Preparedness Research

Objective

To find a proper search strategy to do a systematic review related to preparedness for disasters.

Methods

MeSH and Emtree terms were searched to detect synonyms for two main search terms "disaster" and "preparedness". Expert opinion on the synonyms was examined applying a Google form. The adopted syntax was searched in PubMed and results were sifted. Hand searching in two top key journals was done and sensitivity was calculated.

Results

Out of 1120 articles, 122 were included. In PDM journal, 10 articles were included by hand searching, out of which 5 were not spotted in PubMed search with the proposed syntax. In DMPHP journal, 13 publications were included, with 5 not found in PubMed search. Because of human error in hand searching 2 articles were added.

Conclusion

The proposed syntax in this study achieves a sensitivity of search of 0.6 in PubMed which could be quite applicable for researchers. Moreover, in case only MeSH or Emtree terms were applied in search strategy or where hand searching was not performed, there were a number of articles missed.

Reverse Triage to Increase the Hospital Surge Capacity in Disaster Response

Introduction

Successful and effective management of large-scale disasters and epidemics requires pre-established systematic plans to minimize the damage and control the situation. With an increasing number of people in need of urgent medical care, hospitals must improve their response capacity, being at the forefront of responding to disasters and incidents. One way to develop the hospital capacity in disaster response is by reverse triage (RT).

Objective

The current study was conducted to investigate the role of RT to create additional hospital surge capacity in one of the major referral academic hospitals of Isfahan, Iran.

Method

This cross-sectional study was conducted in 2015 at Al-Zahra Subspecialty Hospital, Isfahan, Iran. The ten most common diseases leading to hospitalization in each ward of the hospital in 2014 were reviewed and, based on the prevalence, sorted and listed. Academic instructions for making a decision and possibility of early discharge was written and approved by an expert panel. On a day that was not set previously, the pre-selected in-charge person of each department was asked to run the RT following the instructions, and the number and percentage of those who were eligible for discharge via RT were determined.

Results

The total BOR in Al-Zahra Hospital in 2014 was about 80%, so it was estimated that almost 140 out of 700 beds are vacant. The results showed that by using RT, 108 (20%) hospitalized cases could be discharged, and considering the bed occupancy rate of about 80% and 140 vacant beds, a total of 248 beds could be provided following RT.

Conclusion

Running RT in 41 wards and units of Isfahan Al-Zahra Hospital, on average, added 108 beds to the hospital capacity. This increment is not the same in all wards, as the role of intensive care units in RT for surge capacity is insignificant.

Development a Reverse Triage System Based on Modified Sequential Organ Failure Assessment for Increasing the Critical Care Surge Capacity

Context

The capacity completeness are one of the serious problems in the bed's managements of the critical care units in a crisis and disaster situation. Reverse triage can help to hospital surge capacity in this situations.

Aims

The aim of this study was to develop a reverse triage system based on Modified Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (MSOFA) for increasing critical care surge capacity.

Settings and Design

This study was a prospective design that performed on the medical patients in critical care unit.

Subjects and Methods

The MSOFA score for each patient was calculated in admission time and be continued until discharging time from critical care unit.

Statistical Analysis Used

The Cox regression method was used to determine the relative risk values. At last, the patients were divided into three levels for reverse triage.

Results

Four hundred and twenty patients were participated in this study. The mean of patients' MSOFA scores in the 1^st day of admission in Critical Care was 5.40 ± 3.8. The relative risk of internal patients discharge from critical care was (8.2%). Death relative risks were <25%, higher than 70% and between 25.1% and 69.9% for three color level of green, black, and red, respectively.

Conclusion

The MSOFA scores can contribute to the design a leveling system for discharging patients from critical care unit. Based on this system, the members of the caring team can predict the final health status of the patient.

Hospital Surge Capacity: A Web-Based Simulation Tool for Emergency Planners

The National Center for the Study of Preparedness and Catastrophic Event Response (PACER) has created a publicly available simulation tool called Surge (accessible at http://www.pacerapps.org) to estimate surge capacity for user-defined hospitals. Based on user input, a Monte Carlo simulation algorithm forecasts available hospital bed capacity over a 7-day period and iteratively assesses the ability to accommodate disaster patients. Currently, the tool can simulate bed capacity for acute mass casualty events (such as explosions) only and does not specifically simulate staff and supply inventory. Strategies to expand hospital capacity, such as (1) opening unlicensed beds, (2) canceling elective admissions, and (3) implementing reverse triage, can be interactively evaluated. In the present application of the tool, various response strategies were systematically investigated for 3 nationally representative hospital settings (large urban, midsize community, small rural). The simulation experiments estimated baseline surge capacity between 7% (large hospitals) and 22% (small hospitals) of staffed beds. Combining all response strategies simulated surge capacity between 30% and 40% of staffed beds. Response strategies were more impactful in the large urban hospital simulation owing to higher baseline occupancy and greater proportion of elective admissions. The publicly available Surge tool enables proactive assessment of hospital surge capacity to support improved decision-making for disaster response. (Disaster Med Public Health Preparedness. 2018;12:513–522)

Bridging complexity theory and resilience to develop surge capacity in health systems

Purpose Health systems are periodically confronted by crises - think of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome, H1N1, and Ebola - during which they are called upon to manage exceptional situations without interrupting essential services to the population. The ability to accomplish this dual mandate is at the heart of resilience strategies, which in healthcare systems involve developing surge capacity to manage a sudden influx of patients. The paper aims to discuss these issues. Design/methodology/approach This paper relates insights from resilience research to the four "S" of surge capacity (staff, stuff, structures and systems) and proposes a framework based on complexity theory to better understand and assess resilience factors that enable the development of surge capacity in complex health systems. Findings Detailed and dynamic complexities manifest in different challenges during a crisis. Resilience factors are classified according to these types of complexity and along their temporal dimensions: proactive factors that improve preparedness to confront both usual and exceptional requirements, and passive factors that enable response to unexpected demands as they arise during a crisis. The framework is completed by further categorizing resilience factors according to their stabilizing or destabilizing impact, drawing on feedback processes described in complexity theory. Favorable order resilience factors create consistency and act as stabilizing forces in systems, while favorable disorder factors such as diversity and complementarity act as destabilizing forces. Originality/value The framework suggests a balanced and innovative process to integrate these factors in a pragmatic approach built around the fours "S" of surge capacity to increase health system resilience.

Identifying Factors That May Influence Decision-Making Related to the Distribution of Patients During a Mass Casualty Incident

OBJECTIVE

We aimed to identify and seek agreement on factors that may influence decision-making related to the distribution of patients during a mass casualty incident.

METHODS

A qualitative thematic analysis of a literature review identified 56 unique factors related to the distribution of patients in a mass casualty incident. A modified Delphi study was conducted and used purposive sampling to identify peer reviewers that had either (1) a peer-reviewed publication within the area of disaster management or (2) disaster management experience. In round one, peer reviewers ranked the 56 factors and identified an additional 8 factors that resulted in 64 factors being ranked during the two-round Delphi study. The criteria for agreement were defined as a median score greater than or equal to 7 (on a 9-point Likert scale) and a percentage distribution of 75% or greater of ratings being in the highest tertile.

RESULTS

Fifty-four disaster management peer reviewers, with hospital and prehospital practice settings most represented, assessed a total of 64 factors, of which 29 factors (45%) met the criteria for agreement.

CONCLUSIONS

Agreement from this formative study suggests that certain factors are influential to decision-making related to the distribution of patients during a mass casualty incident. (Disaster Med Public Health Preparedness. 2018;12:101-108).

Mapping infectious disease hospital surge threats to lessons learnt in Singapore: a systems analysis and development of a framework to inform how to DECIDE on planning and response strategies

Background

Hospital usage and service demand during an Infectious Disease (ID) outbreak can tax the health system in different ways. Herein we conceptualize hospital surge elements, and lessons learnt from such events, to help build appropriately matched responses to future ID surge threats.

Methods

We used the Interpretive Descriptive qualitative approach. Interviews (n = 35) were conducted with governance and public health specialists; hospital based staff; and General Practitioners. Key policy literature in tandem with the interview data were used to iteratively generate a Hospital ID Surge framework. We anchored our narrative account within this framework, which is used to structure our analysis.

Results

A spectrum of surge threats from combinations of capacity (for crowding) and capability (for treatment complexity) demands were identified. Starting with the Pyramid scenario, or an influx of high screening rates flooding Emergency Departments, alongside fewer and manageable admissions; the Reverse-Pyramid occurs when few cases are screened and admitted but those that are, are complex; during a ‘Black’ scenario, the system is overburdened by both crowding and complexity. The Singapore hospital system is highly adapted to crowding, functioning remarkably well at constant near-full capacity in Peacetime and resilient to Endemic surges. We catalogue 26 strategies from lessons learnt relating to staffing, space, supplies and systems, crystalizing institutional memory. The DECIDE model advocates linking these strategies to types of surge threats and offers a step-by-step guide for coordinating outbreak planning and response.

Conclusions

Lack of a shared definition and decision making of surge threats had rendered the procedures somewhat duplicative. This burden was paradoxically exacerbated by a health system that highly prizes planning and forward thinking, but worked largely in silo until an ID crisis hit. Many such lessons can be put into play to further strengthen our current hospital governance and adapted to more diverse settings.

Quantifying Supply of Home Health Services for Public Health Emergencies

The number of persons seeking medical treatment during a public health emergency could quickly overwhelm the capacity of hospitals and emergency rooms. The amount of surge capacity home health care could provide during a public health emergency is unknown. The purpose of this research is to quantify the surge capacity of the home health sector in four emergency scenarios. According to the model developed, routine demand will exceed scenario capacity for almost all home health agencies in all pessimistic cases for the four scenarios discussed. However, home health agencies have the surge capacity to contribute to the provision of care for patients during times of demand under routine operating conditions as well as in conditions where demand may be moderately increased.

Trauma Surge Index: Advancing the Measurement of Trauma Surges and Their Influence on Mortality

BACKGROUND

Increases in trauma patient volume and acuity, such as during mass casualty events, can overwhelm hospitals, potentially worsening patient outcomes. Due to methodological limitations, the effect of trauma surges on clinical outcomes remains unclear, so hospitals have not prepared for such events in an evidence-based manner. The objective of this study was to develop a new measure of hospital capacity strain corresponding to trauma admissions and to examine the relationship between trauma surges and inpatient mortality.

STUDY DESIGN

Using trauma registry data from hospitals across the United States and Canada (2010 to 2011), we developed the Trauma Surge Index (TSI), a measure of capacity strain that controls for variation in hospital admission volume and patient acuity. Using the TSI and an established definition of mass casualty events, we quantified hospital surges and entered each measure as an exposure variable in separate risk-adjusted mortality models.

RESULTS

Using the TSI method, we observed that patients admitted during high-surge periods display significantly increased mortality compared with patients admitted during low-surge periods (odds ratio [OR] = 2.05; 95% CI, 1.36-3.10), and patients with firearms injuries were particularly at risk (OR = 7.29; 95% CI, 2.13-24.91). Using mass casualty event criteria, we found no difference between the mortality of patients admitted during trauma surges and nonsurge periods (OR = 0.94; 95% CI, 0.88-1.01).

CONCLUSIONS

We demonstrate the TSI, which is a novel method that identified periods of high-capacity strain in hospitals associated with increased trauma patient mortality. Our newly developed TSI method can be implemented by hospitals and trauma systems to examine periods of high-capacity strain retrospectively, identify specific resources that might have been needed, and better direct future investments in an evidence-based manner.

The epidemiology and surveillance workforce among local health departments in California: mutual aid and surge capacity for routine and emergency infectious disease situations

OBJECTIVE

Public health surveillance and epidemiologic investigations are critical public health functions for identifying threats to the health of a community. We conducted a survey of local health departments (LHDs) in California to describe the workforce that supports public health surveillance and epidemiologic functions during routine and emergency infectious disease situations.

METHODS

The target population consisted of the 61 LHDs in California. The online survey instrument was designed to collect information about the workforce involved in key epidemiologic functions. We also examined how the public health workforce increases its epidemiologic capacity during infectious disease emergencies.

RESULTS

Of 61 LHDs in California, 31 (51%) completed the survey. A wide range of job classifications contribute to epidemiologic functions routinely, and LHDs rely on both internal and external sources of epidemiologic surge capacity during infectious disease emergencies. This study found that while 17 (55%) LHDs reported having a mutual aid agreement with at least one other organization for emergency response, only nine (29%) LHDs have a mutual aid agreement specifically for epidemiology and surveillance functions.

CONCLUSIONS

LHDs rely on a diverse workforce to conduct epidemiology and public health surveillance functions, emphasizing the need to identify and describe the types of staff positions that could benefit from public health surveillance and epidemiology training. While some organizations collaborate with external partners to support these functions during an emergency, many LHDs do not rely on mutual aid agreements for epidemiology and surveillance activities.