Back to the future for plant phenology research

Climatic drivers and ecological implications of variation in the time interval between leaf-out and flowering

Leaf-out and flowering in any given species have evolved to occur in a predetermined sequence, with the inter-stage time interval optimized to maximize plant fitness. Although warming-induced advances of both leaf-out and flowering are well documented, it remains unclear whether shifts in these phenological phases differ in magnitudes and whether changes have occurred in the length of the inter-stage intervals. Here, we present an extensive synthesis of warming effects on flower-leaf time intervals, using long-term (1963-2014) and in situ data consisting of 11,858 leaf-out and flowering records for 183 species across China. We found that the timing of both spring phenological events was generally advanced, indicating a dominant impact of forcing conditions compared with chilling. Stable time intervals between leaf-out and flowering prevailed for most of the time series despite increasing temperatures; however, some of the investigated cases featured significant changes in the time intervals. The latter could be explained by differences in the temperature sensitivity (ST) between leaf and flower phenology. Greater ST for flowering than for leaf-out caused flowering times to advance faster than leaf emergence. This shortened the inter-stage intervals in leaf-first species and lengthened them in flower-first species. Variation in the time intervals between leaf-out and flowering events may have far-reaching ecological and evolutionary consequences, with implications for species fitness, intra/inter-species interactions, and ecosystem structure, function, and stability.

Climate change: Shifts in time between flowering and leaf-out are complex and consequential

A new study investigated how time intervals between flowering and leaf-out in woody plants are impacted by climate change. Climate change has shifted the timing of both stages, but its impact on the interval between them is complex and variable.

Winter warming offsets one half of the spring warming effects on leaf unfolding

Winter temperature-related chilling and spring temperature-related forcing are two major environmental cues shaping the leaf-out date of temperate species. To what degree insufficient chilling caused by winter warming would slow phenological responses to spring warming remains unclear. Using 27,071 time series of leaf-out dates for 16 tree species in Europe, we constructed a phenological model based on the linear or exponential function between the chilling accumulation (CA) and forcing requirements (FR) of leaf-out. We further used the phenological model to quantify the relative contributions of chilling and forcing on past and future spring phenological change. The results showed that the delaying effect of decreased chilling on the leaf-out date was prevalent in natural conditions, as more than 99% of time series exhibited a negative relationship between CA and FR. The reduction in chilling linked to winter warming from 1951 to 2014 could offset about one half of the spring phenological advance caused by the increase in forcing. In future warming scenarios, if the same model is used and a linear, stable correlation between CA and FR is assumed, declining chilling will continuously offset the advance of leaf-out to a similar degree. Our study stresses the importance of assessing the antagonistic effects of winter and spring warming on leaf-out phenology.

A Mechanistic Framework for Understanding the Effects of Climate Change on the Link Between Flowering and Fruiting Phenology

Phenological shifts are a widely studied consequence of climate change. Little is known, however, about certain critical phenological events, nor about mechanistic links between shifts in different life-history stages of the same organism. Among angiosperms, flowering times have been observed to advance with climate change, but, whether fruiting times shift as a direct consequence of shifting flowering times, or respond differently or not at all to climate change, is poorly understood. Yet, shifts in fruiting could alter species interactions, including by disrupting seed dispersal mutualisms. In the absence of long-term data on fruiting phenology, but given extensive data on flowering, we argue that an understanding of whether flowering and fruiting are tightly linked or respond independently to environmental change can significantly advance our understanding of how fruiting phenologies will respond to warming climates. Through a case study of biotically and abiotically dispersed plants, we present evidence for a potential functional link between the timing of flowering and fruiting. We then propose general mechanisms for how flowering and fruiting life history stages could be functionally linked or independently driven by external factors, and we use our case study species and phenological responses to distinguish among proposed mechanisms in a real-world framework. Finally, we identify research directions that could elucidate which of these mechanisms drive the timing between subsequent life stages. Understanding how fruiting phenology is altered by climate change is essential for all plant species but is particularly critical to sustaining the large numbers of plant species that rely on animal-mediated dispersal, as well as the animals that rely on fruit for sustenance.

Reconciling competing hypotheses regarding flower-leaf sequences in temperate forests for fundamental and global change biology

Phenology is a major component of an organism's fitness. While individual phenological events affect fitness, there is growing evidence to suggest that the relationship between events could be equally or more important. This could explain why temperate deciduous woody plants exhibit considerable variation in the order of reproductive and vegetative events, or flower-leaf sequences (FLSs). There is evidence to suggest that FLSs may be adaptive, with several competing hypotheses to explain their function. Here, we advance existing hypotheses with a new framework that accounts for quantitative FLS variation at multiple taxonomic scales using case studies from temperate forests. Our inquiry provides several major insights towards a better understanding of FLS variation. First, we show that support for FLS hypotheses is sensitive to how FLSs are defined, with quantitative definitions being the most useful for robust hypothesis testing. Second, we demonstrate that concurrent support for multiple hypotheses should be the starting point for future FLS analyses. Finally, we highlight how adopting a quantitative, intraspecific approach generates new avenues for evaluating fitness consequences of FLS variation and provides cascading benefits to improving predictions of how climate change will alter FLSs and thereby reshape plant communities and ecosystems.

Early snowmelt and warmer, drier summers shrink postflowering transition times in subalpine wildflowers

Plant reproductive phenology-the timing of reproduction-is shifting rapidly with global climate change. Many studies focus on flowering responses to climate, but few investigate how postflowering processes, such as how quickly plants develop from flowering to seed dispersal, respond to environmental factors. We examined the climatic drivers of postflowering phenology in 28 species of western North American subalpine meadow plants over large spatial and temporal climate gradients. We took a Bayesian hierarchical approach to address whether and how climate influences the time it takes for wildflower populations to transition from flower to seed. Our previous work on the same species demonstrated that the initiation of flowering depends on snowmelt timing, with warmer temperatures and soil moisture also playing a role. Here, we found that for the majority of the flowering community, the same climate drivers also affected the time it takes to move from flowering to seed dispersal. Climate-sensitive species shortened flower-seed transitions when snow melted earlier, temperatures were warmer, and/or soil dried down more quickly-conditions we expect with higher frequency under climate change. Our work underscores the fact that predicting the impact of climate change on plant reproductive phenology demands empirical data on phases beyond flowering. Additionally, it suggests that some species face a future in which multiple environmental factors will push them towards more rapid transitions from flowering to postflowering phases, with potential effects on plants themselves and the many animal associates that rely on them, including frugivores and seed predators.

Phenological stages of Proso millet (Panicum miliaceum L.) encoded in BBCH scale

As a result of climate change, causing high temperature, erratic precipitation, and extreme meteorological events, in recent times in Italy productivity of Maize is becoming less reliable. Climate change effects are accompanied by the increase in the presence of mycotoxins and various pathogens, which contribute to the reduction of the possibility of successfully producing Maize. In this framework, Proso Millet (Panicum miliaceum L.) may be an interesting alternative, as it is a relatively low-demanding crop, highly drought-resistant, and can be employed, similarly to Sorghum, in rotation, maintaining a certain amount of biodiversity and contributing to the revenue for the farmers. Moreover, Proso Millet has a very short cycle, and may be used as a catch crop, when other crops have failed or after their harvest. Millet used to be cultivated in ancient times in Italy, but then it was abandoned in favor of Maize, so now it is necessary to re-define proper agricultural practices and managements, as well as to remedy to the lack of an exact description of its phenological development. In the frame of a Life-CCA EU project, called Growing REsilience AgriculTure-Life (GREAT LIFE), aim of this work is to encode phenology of Proso Millet using BBCH scale. The lack of an exact definition of Proso Millet phenology is a major drawback in progressing in research on this crop, which could be a very valuable tool for improving the resilience of agro-ecosystems to climate change in the Mediterranean basin. For this purpose, Proso Millet was cultivated in two experimental sites in the Emilia-Romagna region (North of Italy). The crop was closely monitored throughout the life cycle, in order to document, even photographically, the achievement of the subsequent phenological phases (including the time necessary to reach each phenological stage, expressed as Days After Sowing-DAS). Thanks to weather data collection from agrometeorological stations close to the experimental fields, it was possible to correlate the phenological development to temperature-driven heat-unit accumulation (Cumulated Growing Degree Days-CGDD), using the single triangle method (useful tool for forecasting purposes). Ancillary agronomic data have also been collected, for completeness. This study well describes primary and secondary phenological stages of Proso Millet, managing at encoding them in the BBCH scale and contextually providing DAS and CGDD values necessary to achieve the different phenophases. The difference observed between the two experimental sites in reaching each BBCH stage according to both CGDD and DAS is mostly restrained, suggesting that this work may represent a valid first tool in defining the phenological development of Proso Millet in the areas of Northern Italy. The effort made to encode Proso Millet phenology in BBCH scale may be useful to give to researchers comprehensive indications for future agronomic surveys on the crop. The agronomic data collected show that the crop had a good agronomic performance despite the adverse weather pattern during the season, enlightening for farmers the opportunity offered by Millet in Italy as a resilient crop.

Reproductive shoots of Berberis microphylla G. Forst. in relation with the floral bud development and the fruit set

The objective of this research was to study the reproductive shoots of Berberis microphylla G. Forst. in relation with the floral bud development and the fruit set among and within three populations of Tierra del Fuego during three consecutive years. Evolution of the different reproductive phenological phases of B. microphylla was in accordance with the climatic conditions of the sites and the years, in particular with the temperatures of the end of the winter and beginning of the spring. In fact, blooming period in US was advanced compared to FL and CI populations. Also, full bloom was shorter in US respect to FL and CI populations when the temperatures increased gradually as occurred in 2014 year. The development of reproductive shoots was significantly affected by the population, the shadow and the growing season. Mixed bud number/length was highest in US population; however fruit set was maximum in FL population. Shadow levels of 50% decreased total bud number, total bud number/node number, mixed bud number, mixed bud number/length and fruit number/length. Ultimately, mixed bud number, mixed bud number/length and aborted flowers were maxima in 2015–2016 growing season. The obtained results confirm the presence of phenotypic plasticity of the reproductive shoots of Berberis microphylla G. Forst. in relation with the floral bud development and the fruit set.

Phenological sequences: how early-season events define those that follow

PREMISE OF THE STUDY

Plant phenology is a critical trait, as the timings of phenophases such as budburst, leafout, flowering, and fruiting, are important to plant fitness. Despite much study about when individual phenophases occur and how they may shift with climate change, little is known about how multiple phenophases relate to one another across an entire growing season. We test the extent to which early phenological stages constrain later ones, throughout a growing season, across 25 angiosperm tree species.

METHODS

We observed phenology (budburst, leafout, flowering, fruiting, and senescence) of 118 individual trees across 25 species, from April through December 2015.

KEY RESULTS

We found that early phenological events weakly constrain most later events, with the strongest constraints seen between consecutive stages. In contrast, interphase duration was a much stronger predictor of phenology, especially for reproductive events, suggesting that the development time of flowers and fruits may constrain the phenology of these events.

CONCLUSIONS

Much of the variation in later phenological events can be explained by the timing of earlier events and by interphase durations. This highlights that a shift in one phenophase may often have cascading effects on later phases. Accurate forecasts of climate change impacts should therefore include multiple phenophases within and across years.

Larger temperature response of autumn leaf senescence than spring leaf-out phenology

Climate warming is substantially shifting the leaf phenological events of plants, and thereby impacting on their individual fitness and also on the structure and functioning of ecosystems. Previous studies have largely focused on the climate impact on spring phenology, and to date the processes underlying leaf senescence and their associated environmental drivers remain poorly understood. In this study, experiments with temperature gradients imposed during the summer and autumn were conducted on saplings of European beech to explore the temperature responses of leaf senescence. An additional warming experiment during winter enabled us to assess the differences in temperature responses of spring leaf-out and autumn leaf senescence. We found that warming significantly delayed the dates of leaf senescence both during summer and autumn warming, with similar temperature sensitivities (6-8 days delay per °C warming), suggesting that, in the absence of water and nutrient limitation, temperature may be a dominant factor controlling the leaf senescence in European beech. Interestingly, we found a significantly larger temperature response of autumn leaf senescence than of spring leaf-out. This suggests a possible larger contribution of delays in autumn senescence, than of the advancement in spring leaf-out, to extending the growing season under future warmer conditions.