Seed predation selects for reproductive variability and synchrony in perennial plants

Evolutionary ecology of masting: mechanisms, models, and climate change

Many perennial plants show mast seeding, characterized by synchronous and highly variable reproduction across years. We propose a general model of masting, integrating proximate factors (environmental variation, weather cues, and resource budgets) with ultimate drivers (predator satiation and pollination efficiency). This general model shows how the relationships between masting and weather shape the diverse responses of species to climate warming, ranging from no change to lower interannual variation or reproductive failure. The role of environmental prediction as a masting driver is being reassessed; future studies need to estimate prediction accuracy and the benefits acquired. Since reproduction is central to plant adaptation to climate change, understanding how masting adapts to shifting environmental conditions is now a central question.

Relatives reproduce in synchrony: kinship and individual condition shape intraspecific variation in masting phenotype

Masting (synchronous and interannually variable seed production) is frequently called a reproductive strategy; yet it is unclear whether the reproductive behaviour of individuals has a heritable component. To address this, we used 22 years of annual fruit production data from 110 Sorbus aucuparia L. trees to examine the contributions of genetic factors to the reproductive phenotype of individuals, while controlling for environmental variation. Trees sharing close genetic relationships and experiencing similar habitat conditions exhibited similar levels of reproductive synchrony. Trees of comparable sizes displayed similar levels of year-to-year variation in fruiting, with relatedness contributing to this variation. External factors, such as shading, influenced the time intervals between years with abundant fruit production. The effects of genetic relatedness on the synchrony of reproduction among trees and on interannual variation provide long-awaited evidence that the masting phenotype is heritable, and can respond to natural selection.

Stone Pine (Pinus pinea L.) High-Added-Value Genetics: An Overview

Stone pine (Pinus pinea L.) has received limited attention in terms of genetic research. However, genomic techniques hold promise for decoding the stone pine genome and contributing to developing a more resilient bioeconomy. Retrotransposon and specific genetic markers are effective tools for determining population-specific genomic diversity. Studies on the transcriptome and proteome have identified differentially expressed genes PAS1, CLV1, ATAF1, and ACBF involved in shoot bud formation. The stone pine proteome shows variation among populations and shows the industrial potential of the enzyme pinosylvin. Microsatellite studies have revealed low levels of polymorphism and a unique genetic diversity in stone pine, which may contribute to its environmental adaptation. Transcriptomic and proteomic analyses uncover the genetic and molecular responses of stone pine to fungal infections and nematode infestations, elucidating the defense activation, gene regulation, and the potential role of terpenes in pathogen resistance. Transcriptomics associated with carbohydrate metabolism, dehydrins, and transcription factors show promise as targets for improving stone pine's drought stress response and water retention capabilities. Stone pine presents itself as an important model tree for studying climate change adaptation due to its characteristics. While knowledge gaps exist, stone pine's genetic resources hold significant potential, and ongoing advancements in techniques offer prospects for future exploration.

The selective advantage of mast flowering in Veratrum album subsp. oxysepalum: Implications of the predator satiation hypothesis

PREMISE

Synchronous, highly variable flower or seed production among years within a population (i.e., masting) has been reported in numerous perennial plants. Although masting provides ecological advantages such as enhancing pollination efficiency and/or escape from predator attack, little is known about the degree of these advantages and variations in masting behavior among populations of conspecific plants.

METHODS

We determined flowering ramet density and reproductive success (fruit-set success and herbivorous damage) of a perennial herb, Veratrum album subsp. oxysepalum, across six lowland and six alpine populations in northern Japan during 2-3 years. We then analyzed the relationship between floral density and reproductive success to assess the ecological significance of mast flowering. Flowering intervals of individual plants were estimated by counting annual scars on rhizomes.

RESULTS

Most populations had mast flowering, but the intervals between flowering for individual plants were shorter in the alpine populations than in the lowland populations. Floral damage by stem borers (dipteran larvae) and seed predation by lepidopteran larvae were intense in the lowland populations. Seed production of individual ramets increased with higher floral density owing to the effective avoidance of floral-stem damage and seed predation. Although stem borers were absent in the alpine habitat, seed predation decreased with higher floral density also in the alpine populations. Pollination success was independent of floral density in both of the alpine and lowland populations.

CONCLUSIONS

These results strongly support the predator satiation hypothesis for mast flowering by this species.

Tropical–temperate comparisons in insect seed predation vary between study levels and years

The biotic interaction hypothesis, which states the species interaction becomes stronger in the tropics, is deeply rooted in classic ecological literature and widely accepted to contribute to the latitudinal gradients of biodiversity. Tests in latitudinal insect–plant interaction have emphasized leaf‐eating insects on a single or a few plant species rather than within an entire community and mixed accumulating evidence, leaving the biotic interaction hypothesis disputed. We aimed to test the hypothesis by quantifying insect seed predation in a pair of tropical and temperate forest communities with similar elevations. We applied a consistent study design to sample predispersal seeds with systematically set seed traps in 2019–2020 and examined internally feeding insects. The intensity of seed predation was measured and further applied to tropical versus temperate comparison at two levels (cross‐species and community‐wide). Our results showed every latitudinal pattern associated with different study levels and years, that is, negative (greater granivory in the tropics in community‐wide comparison in 2020), positive (less granivory in the tropics in community‐wide and cross‐species comparison in 2019), and missing (similar level of granivory in the tropics in cross‐species comparisons in 2020). The cross‐species level analyses ignore differences among species in seed production and weaken or even lose the latitudinal trend detected by community‐wide comparisons. The between‐year discrepancy in tropical–temperate comparisons relates to the highly variable annual seed composition in the temperate forest due to mast seeding of dominant species. Our study highlights that long‐term community‐level researches across biomes are essential to assess the latitudinal biotic interaction hypothesis.

Emerging infectious disease triggered a trophic cascade and enhanced recruitment of a masting tree

There are several mechanisms that allow plants to temporarily escape from top-down control. One of them is trophic cascades triggered by top predators or pathogens. Another is satiation of consumers by mast seeding. These two mechanisms have traditionally been studied in separation. However, their combined action may have a greater effect on plant release than either process alone. In 2015, an outbreak of a disease (African swine fever, ASF) caused a crash in wild boar (Sus scrofa) abundance in Białowieża Primeval Forest. Wild boar are important consumers of acorns and are difficult to satiate relative to less mobile granivores. We hypothesized that the joint action of the ASF outbreak and masting would enhance regeneration of oaks (Quercus robur). Data from ungulate exclosures demonstrated that ASF led to reduction in acorn predation. Tree seedling data indicated that oak recruitment increased twofold relative to pre-epidemic period. Our results showed that perturbations caused by wildlife disease travel through food webs and influence forest dynamics. The outbreak of ASF acted synergistically with masting and removed herbivore top-down control of oaks by mobile consumers. This illustrates that the ASF epidemic that currently occurs across Europe can have broad effects on forest dynamics.

Global patterns in the predator satiation effect of masting: A meta-analysis

Masting, or synchronous production of large seed crops, is widespread among plants. The predator satiation hypothesis states that masting evolved to overwhelm seed predators with an excess of food. Yet, this popular explanation faced few rigorous tests. We conducted a meta-analysis of studies that related the magnitude of seed production to the intensity of seed predation. Our results validate certain theoretical notions (e.g., that predator satiation is more effective at higher latitudes) but challenge others (e.g., that specialist and generalist consumers differ in the type of functional response to masting). We also found that masting is losing its ability to satiate consumers, probably because global warming affected masting patterns. This shift might considerably impair the reproduction of masting plants.

Predator satiation is the most commonly tested hypothesis that explains the evolutionary advantages of masting. It proposes that masting benefits plant reproduction by reducing the proportion of seed crop that is consumed by predators. This hypothesis is widely accepted, but many theoretical notions about predator satiation have not been subjected to a robust evaluation. To address this issue, we conducted a meta-analysis of studies that quantified seed predation in relation to mast seeding. We found evidence of both numerical (starvation between mast years) and functional (satiation during mast years) response of consumers to masting. These two effects reinforced each other. Masting satiated invertebrate but not vertebrate seed predators. Satiation was more pronounced at higher, temperate, and boreal latitudes, perhaps because masting is more effective in reducing seed losses when plant communities are less diverse. The effectiveness of masting in satiating invertebrate consumers declined over time (1972 to 2018), probably reflecting the impact of climate change on the frequency and intensity of masting. If masting ceases to reduce seed losses, a crucial advantage of this reproductive strategy will be lost, and sustainability of many tree populations will decline.

Fire influences reproductive outcomes by modifying flowering phenology and mate-availability

A recent study posited that fire in grasslands promotes persistence of plant species by improving mating opportunities and reproductive outcomes. We devised an investigation to test these predicted mechanisms in two widespread, long-lived perennials. We expect fire to synchronize flowering, increase mating and boost seed set. We quantified individual flowering phenology and seed set of Liatris aspera and Solidago speciosa for 3 yr on a preserve in Minnesota, USA. The preserve comprises two management units burned on alternating years, allowing for comparisons between plants in burned and unburned areas within the same year, and plants in the same area across years with and without burns. Fire increased flowering synchrony and increased time between start date and peak flowering. Individuals of both species that initiated flowering later in the season had higher seed set. Fire was associated with substantially higher flowering rates and seed set in L. aspera but not S. speciosa. In L. aspera, greater synchrony was associated with increased mean seed set. Although fire affected flowering phenology in both species, reproductive success improved only in the species in which fire also synchronized among-year flowering. Our results support the hypothesis that reproduction in some grassland species benefits from fire.

Costs and benefits of masting: economies of scale are not reduced by negative density-dependence in seedling survival in Sorbus aucuparia

Masting is a widespread reproductive strategy in plants that helps to reduce seed predation and increase pollination. However, masting can involve costs, notably negative density-dependent (NDD) seedling survival caused by concentrating reproduction in intermittent events. Masting benefits have received widespread attention, but the costs are understudied, which precludes understanding why some plant species have evolved intense masting, while others reproduce regularly. We followed seed production, seed predation (both 13 yr), and seedling recruitment and survival (11 yr) in Sorbus aucuparia. We tested whether NDD in seedling survival after mast years can reduce the benefits of pulsed reproduction that come through predator satiation. Seed predation rates were extreme in our population (mean = 75%), but were reduced by masting. The commonly accepted, but untested, assertion that pulsed recruitment is associated with strong NDD was unsupported. Consequently, the proportion of seedlings that survived their first year increased with fruit production. This provides a rare test of economies of scale beyond the seed stage. Our results provide estimation of the costs of mast seeding, and indicate that these may be lower than expected. Low masting costs, if common, may help explain why masting is such a widespread reproductive strategy throughout the plant kingdom.

The effects of ENSO and the North American monsoon on mast seeding in two Rocky Mountain conifer species

We aimed to disentangle the patterns of synchronous and variable cone production (i.e. masting) and its relationship to climate in two conifer species native to dry forests of western North America. We used cone abscission scars to reconstruct ca 15 years of recent cone production in Pinus edulis and Pinus ponderosa, and used redundancy analysis to relate time series of annual cone production to climate indices describing the North American monsoon and the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO). We show that the sensitivity to climate and resulting synchrony in cone production varies substantially between species. Cone production among populations of P. edulis was much more spatially synchronous and more closely related to large-scale modes of climate variability than among populations of P. ponderosa. Large-scale synchrony in P. edulis cone production was associated with the North American monsoon and we identified a dipole pattern of regional cone production associated with ENSO phase. In P. ponderosa, these climate indices were not strongly associated with cone production, resulting in asynchronous masting patterns among populations. This study helps frame our understanding of mast seeding as a life-history strategy and has implications for our ability to forecast mast years in these species. This article is part of the theme issue 'The ecology and evolution of synchronized seed production in plants'.

A brief history of masting research

Although it has long been recognized that seed production by many forest trees varies greatly from year to year, masting (along with 'mast fruiting', 'mast seeding' and 'masting behaviour') as a concept referring to such variability is a relatively recent development. Here, I provide a brief history of masting research, highlighting some of the early contributions by foresters, zoologists and others that paved the way for the burgeoning number of studies currently being conducted by researchers around the world. Of particular current interest is work attempting to understand the proximate mechanisms, evolutionary drivers and community effects of this important ecological phenomenon as well as the ways that climate change may influence masting behaviour in the future. This article is part of the theme issue 'The ecology and evolution of synchronized seed production in plants'.

Modes of climate variability bridge proximate and evolutionary mechanisms of masting

There is evidence that variable and synchronous reproduction in seed plants (masting) correlates to modes of climate variability, e.g. El Niño Southern Oscillation and North Atlantic Oscillation. In this perspective, we explore the breadth of knowledge on how climate modes control reproduction in major masting species throughout Earth's biomes. We posit that intrinsic properties of climate modes (periodicity, persistence and trends) drive interannual and decadal variability of plant reproduction, as well as the spatial extent of its synchrony, aligning multiple proximate causes of masting through space and time. Moreover, climate modes force lagged but in-phase ecological processes that interact synergistically with multiple stages of plant reproductive cycles. This sets up adaptive benefits by increasing offspring fitness through either economies of scale or environmental prediction. Community-wide links between climate modes and masting across plant taxa suggest an evolutionary role of climate variability. We argue that climate modes may 'bridge' proximate and ultimate causes of masting selecting for variable and synchronous reproduction. The future of such interaction is uncertain: processes that improve reproductive fitness may remain coupled with climate modes even under changing climates, but chances are that abrupt global warming will affect Earth's climate modes so rapidly as to alter ecological and evolutionary links. This article is part of the theme issue 'The ecology and evolution of synchronized seed production in plants'.

Macroevolutionary consequences of mast seeding

Masting characterizes large, intermittent and highly synchronous seeding events among individual plants and is found throughout the plant Tree of Life (ToL). Although masting can increase plant fitness, little is known about whether it results in evolutionary changes across entire clades, such as by promoting speciation or enhanced trait selection. Here, we tested if masting has macroevolutionary consequences by combining the largest existing dataset of population-level reproductive time series and time-calibrated phylogenetic tree of vascular plants. We found that the coefficient of variation (CVp) of reproductive output for 307 species covaried with evolutionary history, and more so within clades than expected by random. Speciation rates estimated at the species level were highest at intermediate values of CVp and regional-scale synchrony (Sr) in seed production, that is, there were unimodal correlations. There was no support for monotonic correlations between either CVp or Sr and rates of speciation or seed size evolution. These results were robust to different sampling decisions, and we found little bias in our dataset compared with the wider plant ToL. While masting is often adaptive and encompasses a rich diversity of reproductive behaviours, we suggest it may have few consequences beyond the species level. This article is part of the theme issue 'The ecology and evolution of synchronized seed production in plants'.

Climate change and plant reproduction: trends and drivers of mast seeding change

Climate change is reshaping global vegetation through its impacts on plant mortality, but recruitment creates the next generation of plants and will determine the structure and composition of future communities. Recruitment depends on mean seed production, but also on the interannual variability and among-plant synchrony in seed production, the phenomenon known as mast seeding. Thus, predicting the long-term response of global vegetation dynamics to climate change requires understanding the response of masting to changing climate. Recently, data and methods have become available allowing the first assessments of long-term changes in masting. Reviewing the literature, we evaluate evidence for a fingerprint of climate change on mast seeding and discuss the drivers and impacts of these changes. We divide our discussion into the main characteristics of mast seeding: interannual variation, synchrony, temporal autocorrelation and mast frequency. Data indicate that masting patterns are changing but the direction of that change varies, likely reflecting the diversity of proximate factors underlying masting across taxa. Experiments to understand the proximate mechanisms underlying masting, in combination with the analysis of long-term datasets, will enable us to understand this observed variability in the response of masting. This will allow us to predict future shifts in masting patterns, and consequently ecosystem impacts of climate change via its impacts on masting. This article is part of the theme issue 'The ecology and evolution of synchronized seed production in plants'.

Masting

Andrew Hacket-Pain introduces the phenomenon known as 'masting', in which perennial plants show extraordinary variation in annual reproductive effort.

Measuring temporal patterns in ecology: The case of mast seeding

Properly assessing temporal patterns is a central issue in ecology in order to understand ecosystem processes and their mechanisms. Mast seeding has traditionally been described as a reproductive behavior consisting of highly variable and synchronized reproductive events. The most common metric used to measure temporal variability and thus infer masting behavior, the coefficient of variation (CV), however, has been repeatedly suggested to improperly estimate temporal variability. Biases of CV estimates are especially problematic for non-normally distributed data and/or data sets with a high number of zeros.Some recent studies have already adopted new metrics to measure temporal variability, but most continue to use CV. This controversy has started a strong debate about what metrics to use.We here summarize the problems of CV when assessing temporal variability, particularly across data sets containing a large number of zeros, and highlight the benefits of using other metrics of temporal variability, such as proportional variability (PV) and consecutive disparity (D). We also suggest a new way to look at reproductive behavior, by separating temporal variability from frequency of reproduction, to allow better comparison of data sets with different characteristics.We suggest future studies to properly describe the temporal patterns in fully scientific and measurable terms that do not lead to confusion, such as variability and frequency of reproduction, using robust and fully comparable metrics.